Some communities across Canada are currently living in a state of water insecurity ...... water resource management (hosted March 22 and 23, 2012 in Toronto), and ... available on the web at http://waterandclimate.ca and provides a publically ...
November 2012
Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in Canadian Water Resource Management The state of practice and strategic directions for action
Full Report Prepared by:
and partners
In collaboration with:
With federal funding from Natural Resources Canada's Regional Adaptation Collaborative Program
This report has been approved by an advisory committee of national practitioners and stakeholders in water adaptation from government, NGOs and the private sector. This report has also been anonymously peer reviewed by the Canadian Water Resource Association. Recommended Citation: Toronto and Region Conservation and ESSA Technologies (TRCA and ESSA). 2012. Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in Canadian Water Resource Management: The state of practice and strategic directions for action. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority: Toronto, ON. pp 79. © Copyright Toronto and Region Conservation 5 Shoreham Drive ,Downsview, Ontario, M3N 1S4, Canada Ph: (416) 661-6600 www.trca.on.ca This publication is available at online at: http://waterandclimate.ca ISBN: 978-0-9811107/7/6
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LETTER FROM THE PROJECT PARTNERS We are living in a time of rapid environmental change, unprecedented in the modern era. Driven by changes in climate, extreme weather events are increasing in both frequency and intensity. In addition, the historic climate patterns we are accustomed to – cold, snowy winters and warm, summers – are shifting. These trends in weather and climate add significant stress to the quality and availability of water resources across Canada. Across Canada impacts will vary and heighten risks of flooding, drought, extreme storm events, erosion and ecological degradation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has determined that even if greenhouse gas emissions were curbed today, the current trends in weather and climate will continue for decades, if not centuries. We have passed the point where our sole focus can be on preventing climate change; we must also plan for and adapt to the inevitable changes in climate and weather that are already becoming manifest. We must “mainstream” adaptation into our civic governance, commercial concerns and individual lives. Nowhere is this more important than in the way we manage our water resources. Some communities across Canada are currently living in a state of water insecurity and lack access to safe and reliable drinking water, while others are poorly protected from flooding and natural hazards. Ecological degradation is also a serious concern with profound negative impacts on the health and the sustainability of Canada’s water resources. At the same time, the water infrastructure in our cities and water conservation practices in almost every sector are in deficit. In every year that statistics on global water use have been collected, Canada has consistently ranked among the top five per capita water consumers in the world. Much of this water is wasted, the result of inefficient usage practices and losses from aging water infrastructure. Climate change, if unaddressed, will only exacerbate these problems and compromise the sustainability of any potential solutions taken to address them. Climate change must be considered as a core factor that will continue to affect hydrology, as well as the availability and quality of Canadian water resources. Clean, plentiful water is the basis of healthy communities, ecosystems and economies. We must adapt the way we manage our water resources to the new reality of a changing climate if we hope to maintain our current quality of life and pursue a course of sustainable development. Significant effort has been taken over the last five years to develop innovative technologies, policies and projects in climate change adaptation. Many of these have focused specifically on water, undertaken with the support of federal, provincial and local governments, non-governmental organizations, businesses, and academia. The fruits of these efforts – in the form of training programs, design guidelines, water management tools, watershed plans, and public engagement – provide us with optimism about our collective ability to cope with climate change. Through this work, we have become more confident that our governments, planners, engineers, communities and citizens are acquiring the skills needed to adapt. Nonetheless, we still must achieve significant progress to ensure adaptation is integrated fully into the daily tasks and long-term decisions about water resource management.
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This report and the accompanying compendium summarize the degree to which adaptation considerations have been integrated – ‘mainstreamed,’ if you will – into water resource management practices and policies across Canada. They also identify strategic directions that, if pursued, will strengthen the resilience of our water resources for generations to come. Sincerely,
Dr. Gordon McBean, Chair
Dr. André St-Hilaire, President
Brian Denney, CAO
Canadian Climate Forum
Canadian Water Resource Association
Toronto and Region Conservation
“The challenge upon us is to move climate change adaptation from the undercurrent to the mainstream” - Robert Sandford, 2012 UN Water for Life Decade Address
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA), as the lead organization on this project, would like to thank ESSA Technologies, Zumundo Community and Environmental Planning, Acclimatise North America and our own dedicated staff for their commitment to producing a comprehensive and authoritative report. These individuals include: Marc Nelitz, Jeff Zukiwsky, Samantha Boardley, JeanChristophe Amado, Harris Switzman, Stewart Dutfield, and Cindy Barr. The authors are grateful for the opportunity to prepare this report on behalf of an advisory committee comprised of representatives from government, the private sector, and non-governmental organization from across Canada. Their commitment to the sustainability of Canada’s water is inspiring, and their insights and contributions have been invaluable. In particular, we would like to thank the following individuals on the advisory committee for their commitment and valuable contributions to this report: Jenny Fraser, British Columbia Ministry of the Environment Mary-Ann Wilson, Natural Resources Canada Julie Lax, Environment Canada Robert Sandford, United Nations Water for Life Decade Merrell-Ann Phare, Centre for Indigenous Environmental Resources Dr. André St-Hilaire, Canadian Water Resource Association Tom Harrison, Saskatchewan Watershed Authority Dawn Conway, Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences Dr. Gordon McBean, Western University Al Douglas, Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources Michael Garraway, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources Erin Taylor, Prince Edward Island Department of Environment, Energy and Forestry Chandra Sharma, Toronto and Region Conservation Authority Devin Causley, Federation of Canadian Municipalities Alain Bourque and Nicolas Audet, OURANOS Consortium Charley Worte, Conservation Ontario Barry Steinberg, Consulting Engineers of Ontario
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Letter from The Project Partners ................................................................................................................................................. iii Acknowledgements.......................................................................................................................................................................... v List of Figures ...................................................................................................................................................................................viii List of Tables .....................................................................................................................................................................................viii Boxes ...................................................................................................................................................................................................viii 1. Setting the stage for mainstreaming.................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Water and climate imperative in Canada .................................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1. A loss of stationarity................................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1.2. Economic importance ............................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1.3. Lessons for effective management .................................................................................................................... 2 1.2. Context for this report...................................................................................................................................................... 3 1.3. Target audience.................................................................................................................................................................. 4 1.4. Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change........................................................................................................ 4 1.5. Broad policy environment for mainstreaming ........................................................................................................ 6 1.6. Alternative perspectives on water resource management ............................................................................. 11 2. Understanding the current state ofpractice in water adaptation ......................................................................... 16 2.1. An overview by policy elements ............................................................................................................................... 16 2.1.1. Data............................................................................................................................................................................. 16 2.1.2. Monitoring networks ............................................................................................................................................ 17 2.1.3. Knowledge ............................................................................................................................................................... 17 2.1.4. Tools ........................................................................................................................................................................... 24 2.1.5. Knowledge networks............................................................................................................................................ 24 2.1.6. Infrastructure and technology .......................................................................................................................... 26 2.1.7. Adaptation measures ........................................................................................................................................... 27 2.1.8. Awareness ................................................................................................................................................................ 28 2.1.9. Capacity ..................................................................................................................................................................... 28 2.1.10. Investments......................................................................................................................................................... 29 2.2. A summary by water issue ........................................................................................................................................... 30 2.2.1. Streamflow ............................................................................................................................................................... 30 2.2.2. Inland flooding and coastal inundation ........................................................................................................ 31 2.2.3. Drought and aridity............................................................................................................................................... 32 vi
2.2.4. Groundwater ........................................................................................................................................................... 33 2.2.5. Water quality ........................................................................................................................................................... 34 2.2.6. Lake levels and ice cover ..................................................................................................................................... 35 3. Identifying strategic opportunities to move forward ................................................................................................ 37 3.1. The context for opportunities .................................................................................................................................... 37 3.2. Strategic opportunities ................................................................................................................................................. 39 3.2.1. Improve the collection, accessibility and integration of data for water adaptation ..................... 39 3.2.2. Strengthen existing monitoring networks to support needs in water adaptation ....................... 40 3.2.3. Address most critical gaps in, improve integration of and disseminate existing knowledge within and across water issues and sectors.................................................................................................. 40 3.2.4. Validate and expand use of existing tools and develop new tools to address critical needs .... 42 3.2.5. Formalize, support and expand existing knowledge networks in water adaptation ................... 42 3.2.6. Strengthen resilience of existing infrastructure to a greater range of extremes and expand use of resilient technologies within and across water issues and sectors ................................................ 43 3.2.7. Pilot, monitor and showcase adaptation measures in water resource management .................. 44 3.2.8. Raise awareness of the importance and urgency of water adaptation among less technical audiences, in particular policy makers and the public ............................................................................. 45 3.2.9. Identify the most vulnerable groups and build their capacity to adapt ............................................ 45 3.2.10. Develop innovative, collaborative and durable funding mechanisms for investments in water adaptation.................................................................................................................................................... 46 4. Closing Thoughts and Next Steps .................................................................................................................................... 47 5. Endnotes .................................................................................................................................................................................... 49
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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1:
Model, or framework, representing the broad policy environment that supports climate change adaptation and water resource management in Canada. Inputs and outputs in bold are described in more detail in Table 1 and Table 2. Endnotes provide links to supporting documentation. CCA stands for climate change adaptation. .................................................................... 8
Figure 2:
Alternative perspectives from which to view water resource management in Canada. .............. 12
Figure 3:
Map of a sample of projects in water resource adaptation across Canada according to dominant water issue. Project IDs and an overview are provided in Table 5. .................................. 19
Figure 4:
Word clouds representing the frequency of words in The Compendium of knowledge that are used to: (A) describe the geographic location of all entries; and (B) describe the content for all entries. Larger words are cited more frequently in The Compendium. .............................................. 23
Figure 5:
Histograms representing the number of entries in The Compendium of knowledge as summarized by four key dimensions. Abbreviations for inputs / outputs provided in Table 1 and Table 2 for water sectors in, and for water issues in Table 4. CC means cross-cutting. ........ 25
LIST OF TABLES Table 1:
Examples and descriptions of inputs (as shown in Figure 1) related to water adaptation in Canada. .......................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Table 2:
Examples and descriptions of outputs (as shown in Figure 1) related to water adaptation in Canada. .......................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Table 3:
Summary of water sectors involved in water adaptation across Canada........................................... 13
Table 4:
Summary of water issues relevant to water adaptation across Canada. ............................................ 14
Table 5:
An overview of projects mapped in Figure 3. All projects were funded, in part, by the RAC program, except ID 12. .......................................................................................................................................... 20
BOXES Box 1:
Weather Versus Climate........................................................................................................................................... 1
Box 2 :
Example of Data Versus Knowledge ................................................................................................................ 17
Box 3:
IWRM Principles ....................................................................................................................................................... 41
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1.SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAINSTREAMING 1.1. Water and climate imperative in Canada 1.1.1. A loss of stationarity Adaptation to climate change is, first and foremost, biophysical in origin. Evidence of climate change over the last century and projections outward indicate a warmer and generally wetter climate in Canada although some regions and seasons are expected to become drier.12 These changes in climate will lead to reductions in the extent and duration of snow cover, changes in the timing of peak flows, declines in summer and fall streamflows, declines in glacial cover, reduction in the extent and duration of ice cover on seas, lakes, and rivers, as well as sea level rise.3,4Climate induced changes to terrestrial ecosystems, through fire and insect disturbance for instance, can alter nutrient concentrations, thermal loading, and sediment transport in streams,5 while changes to the timing and intensity of runoff can affect concentrations of pollutants. Evidence indicates that climate change is undermining the notion of stationarity – that the hydrologic cycle fluctuates within an unchanging envelope of variability6 – meaning that we cannot continue to use past conditions to accurately predict the future. Moreover, this loss of stationarity means that there will be an increase in the likelihood and frequency of extreme weather events, including heavy precipitation, flooding, droughts, and heat waves.7All of these changes are expected to simultaneously affect Canada’s air, land, and water resources. The increasing variability and uncertainty in hydroclimatic conditions presents a formidable challenge for the management of water resources in Canada. Conflicts over priorities among water users, and cumulative interactions of a multitude of plausible climate impacts have added to this challenge of managing water resources sustainably. The historical record upon which water management systems were developed is no longer appropriate as a foundation to the design of these systems.8 Since the loss of stationarity is a new hydrologic reality, existing monitoring networks, tools, methods and water management systems in North America are becoming less reliable for planning and management. In fact, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects with “very high confidence” that globally “current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with the impacts of climate change.”9
Box 1:
Weather Versus Climate
Climate represents the long-term pattern in weather over a geographic area (e.g., average daily temperature over a season for Canada) while weather refers to atmospheric conditions over a shorter time period. Water resources are greatly dependent on both weather and climate. The availability, quality, and uses of water resources are all directly affected by both sudden weather events (e.g., storms or extreme heat), and climate (e.g., gradual loss of snow-pack over several years).1
1.1.2. Economic importance The potential consequences of climate change are significant, given the abundance of freshwater in Canada and its importance to our economy. Canada is water wealthy, blessed with 20 percent of the world’s fresh water resources and 7 percent of the world’s total renewable water flows,10 ranking 9 out of 200 countries in per capita access.11 Globally, it is recognized that freshwater satisfies basic needs for drinking, washing, and 1
food preparation and serves as a foundation for ecosystems and human health.12 Freshwater provides essential services to agriculture and thermal power generation, the top consumptive users of water across natural resource industries in Canada accounting for 66 percent and 12 percent of use, respectively.13,14 In their abundance, water resources have been estimated as contributing between $7.8 and $22.9 billion (in 2011 dollars) annually to Canada’s financial well-being, leading some to consider the nation as having a “blue” economy.15 Around the world conflicts in balancing the multiple and competing needs for water are intensifying, due in part to the increasing awareness of the connectedness among water security, energy security, and food security – termed by some as the water-energy-food nexus.16,17,18 In Canada it is expected that changes in the hydrologic cycle will have impacts on all water needs, including navigation, tourism, species and habitats, hydroelectric power, agricultural irrigation, as well as municipal supplies and water quality.19 Moreover, an estimated 27 percent increase in the Canadian population from 33.5 million in 201120 to 42.5 million by 205621will add to the cumulative pressures on the water, land, and natural resources that support the economy. Maintaining the economic benefits of a relatively water-abundant nation comes at a cost, the magnitude of which may be further exacerbated by the impacts of climate change.22 In urban environments, municipalities account for about 10 percent of water withdrawals in Canada, and in older cities as much as 30 to 40 percent of that treated water is wasted due to leakage from buried infrastructure, primarily old and decaying pipes.23 Between 1994 and 1999, 26 percent of Canadian municipalities experienced water shortages as a result of increased consumption, drought, and infrastructure problems.24 Recent estimates suggest that it will cost $31 billion to maintain and upgrade existing water, wastewater, and stormwater systems, with an additional $56.6 billion required for expansion to these systems.25 Some of these costs may be due to the fact that water is significantly undervalued.26 Canadians pay less for water than most other countries,27 leading its population to be one of the highest consumers of freshwater ranking as the second highest water user among developed nations28 and the ninth highest among all nations.29 A distortion in price is problematic because it can lead to inefficient allocation and water use conflicts, excessive or wasteful use, a lack of innovation in water use efficiency and deterioration of water infrastructure.30
1.1.3. Lessons for effective management Historic evidence further illustrates how future changes to the hydrologic cycle could significantly affect our health and economy.31,32 In recent years, water-related insurance claims exceeded fires as the leading cause of insured loss in Canada with approximately 34 percent of all insurance claims being due to extreme water events, such as floods and droughts, costing an estimated $1.7 billion per year.33 Individual water related disasters have been some of the most costly in Canada, including flooding in southern Alberta in 2010, costing $956 million, and drought in the Prairie Provinces in 1990 and 1992, costing $581 and $580 million respectively.34 The economic impact of the drought of 2001-2002 in Saskatchewan has been calculated a contributing a loss of $6 billion in GDP and disappearance of 41,000 jobs.35 In 2005 a summer storm hit southwestern Ontario and caused extensive flooding, damage to infrastructure and $500 million in insured losses.36 Across the country more than one hundred Aboriginal communities have permanent boil water advisories in effect37 while many other reserve communities have little faith that water supplies are potable.38 In 2000, the municipal supply to Walkerton, Ontario was contaminated with Escherichia coli, leading to the death of seven people and illness of more than 2,300.39 In 2001, more than 7,000 people fell ill when the water supply in North Battleford, Saskatchewan was tainted with Cryptosporidium.40 Summer
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water shortages have affected tourism destinations such as Tofino, British Columbia (BC) when in 2006 the town was forced to close its businesses due to dwindling water supplies.41 When in excess, water poses an acute hazard to infrastructure and ecosystems through flooding and its associated impacts. When in deficit, water can lead to drought, ecosystem stress, and constraints on economic production. When degraded in quality, it can lead to impacts on human health and well-being.
1.2. Context for this report Given the strong links to climate and importance of water to the health and well-being of Canada, this technical report seeks to offer insights that can help increase the resilience of water resources in response to climate change. In particular, the objectives of this report are to: (1) provide a snapshot of the state of practice on adaptation to water-related impacts of climate change; and (2) identify strategic opportunities to enable mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change across levels of governance, regions, interests, sectors and water issues. To achieve these objectives, this report is organized into three sections. Section 1: Setting the stage for mainstreaming provides a summary of the current situation in Canada by: (1) describing the potential impacts and influences of climate on the management of Canada’s water resources; (2) defining the practice of climate change adaptation and mainstreaming; (3) characterizing the broad policy environment that supports mainstreaming; and (4) presenting alternative perspectives from which to understand water management. An overview of these topics serves as a useful context for framing the current state of practice and strategic opportunities for moving forward. Section 2: Understanding the current state of practice provides a broad overview of the state of practice according to the core elements of the broader policy environment. This section also presents a summary of six key water issues of national significance (streamflow, inland flooding and coastal inundation, drought and aridity, groundwater, water quality, as well as lake levels and ice cover). These summaries are useful for understanding the strengths and weaknesses in the current state of practice to identify opportunities for future investment. Section 3: Identifying strategic opportunities to move forward provides an overview of the opportunities and possible paths forward to further enable mainstreaming. These opportunities are based on an understanding of the current state of practice, the needs identified at a national forum on adaptation in water resource management (hosted March 22 and 23, 2012 in Toronto), and insights from the research of others. These opportunities represent a broad range of options available and will require further effort to prioritize and implement locally. This technical report is the third part of a larger project supported by Natural Resources Canada’s (NRCan) Regional Adaptation Collaborative (RAC) program. The first activity included developing a compendium of knowledge on adaptation to climate change in the water sector whose purpose was “to provide relevant information to users to help overcome knowledge barriers related to climate change adaptation and water.” The National Compendium of Water Adaptation Knowledge (herein referred to as ‘The Compendium’) is available on the web at http://waterandclimate.ca and provides a publically accessible, and constantly evolving wealth of information across a broad range of sectors and issues for practitioners working on climate adaptation in water resource management across Canada.42 It currently contains over 350 entries, 3
including data for characterizing future climate scenarios, tools to use in adaptation planning, watershed case studies and strategies for adapting to climate change. The second part included hosting a national forum on climate change adaptation in the water resource management sector in Toronto, Ontario (March 22-23, 2012), called the National Water Adaptation to Climate Change Forum. The purpose of this forum was “to share lessons and opportunities, and identify needs and potential challenges in advancing the adaptation of water resource management nationally.” It was attended by over 80 practitioners from across Canada. This report is the final deliverable and it is heavily informed by these previous phases, guidance from a technical Advisory Committee comprised of leaders in climate change adaptation from across the country, and a peer review by the Canadian Water Resources Association (CWRA). Although collectively this work represents a broad collection of information on adaptation in water resource management across Canada, it is not exhaustive.
1.3. Target audience Given the range of opportunities needed to improve mainstreaming and the complexity of the challenges moving forward, the results of this project are intended for four core audiences. The first audience includes practitioners who have a technical understanding of water management in Canada and a role in mainstreaming adaptation to climate change at design and operational stages. These individuals include: • • • •
decision makers who make choices about allocation and use of natural resources; stakeholders who advocate for their values in the context of competing demands for water; natural and social scientists who lead the generation of knowledge to inform decision making and policy; and adaptation planners who assess options for responding to climate change at the national, provincial, territorial, regional, or community level.
The second audience includes senior managers who make decisions on allocations of human resources – time, people, and money – for public and private organizations within which the above practitioners are situated. Managers have a technical understanding of the issues relevant to the practitioners. They do not have a direct role in representing or balancing the competing priorities of society, but do have a role in implementing the intentions of policy makers. The last audiences includes policy makers and the public who might have a less technical understanding of water resource management and climate change adaptation but whose roles are important for balancing the competing priorities of society. They also have a role in influencing the broader policy environment that governs water resource management in Canada, and are significantly impacted by the level of water security locally. This technical report is targeted towards practitioners and managers, while a less technical summary appears as a separate document and is targeted towards policy makers and the public.
1.4. Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change The strong and fundamental link between climate and water has led to the view that “if mitigation is about CARBON, then [climate change] adaptation is about WATER”43 in large part because water is the primary form through which changes in climate will influence ecosystems, human health, and human well-being.44 Given that climate change is now recognized as inevitable even if current greenhouse gas emissions are curtailed today, Canada faces the challenge of adapting to improve water security to the new hydrologic realities of a warming global climate.45 The effects of climate change are typically viewed as exacerbating 4
current water crises. However, these crises can also be viewed as an opportunity to improve the management of water resources moving forward.46 Examples of steps being taken to adapt to climate change include (described in more detail in Section 2.0): •
• •
•
•
•
learning about potential changes in future climate by applying Global Circulation Models and downscaling tools to develop projections of local climate conditions (e.g., developing climate scenarios for the Yukon47 and Atlantic Canada48); assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources (e.g., understanding impacts on water in Ontario,49 as well as the Saint-Lawrence50 and Saskatchewan Rivers51); assessing the vulnerability of human communities and ecosystems to hydroclimatic changes (e.g., assessing vulnerability of public infrastructure in Canada52 or assessing vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems in BC53); developing watershed management plans that explicitly consider the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand to inform allocations across water users and infrastructure investments in the southern interior of BC54 or southern Ontario55; updating provincial / territorial water laws in Quebec,56 Alberta,57BC,58 and the Northwest Territories59 so water management policies and procedures are informed and responsive to climate change; and investing in strategies to reduce the sensitivity or strengthen the adaptive capacity of human communities and ecosystems to respond to future disturbance (e.g., preparing for coastal impacts in Atlantic Canada60 or identifying opportunities for adaptation at a national level61).
Though a standard definition does not exist, many have used the term and referred to the need to “mainstream” climate change adaptation into a variety of aspects of civil society, as opposed to adaptation being viewed as a new and ‘stand-alone’ activity that is isolated from other decision making processes. Looking at its use in Canadian and international examples there are some common considerations: “Climate change adaptation should be considered as part of existing government policies, institutions, and processes. It must become part of the mainstream. Rather than simply creating new processes, institutions, and separate government programs, an effective and efficient approach to adaptation is to “mainstream” it by building on existing planning and permitting rules…”62 “Climate change is mainstreamed in water management, and in water-related land use planning, when it influences decisions from the outset.”63 “Mainstreaming refers to the integration of adaptation objectives, strategies, policies, measures or operations such that they become part of the national and regional development policies, processes and budgets at all levels and stages.”64 “Mainstreaming climate change adaptation is the iterative process of integrating considerations of climate change adaptation into policy-making, budgeting, implementation and monitoring processes…”65 “Strategic level mainstreaming, as defined by Care (2009), means addressing the organisational environment in which policies and programmes are planned and implemented…..Meanwhile operational level mainstreaming has two objectives, namely ‘climate proofing’ and ‘building adaptive capacity.’66 5
Common among the above uses are references to terms such as integration, existing, iterative, in the context of both policy and project level activities. Importantly, these terms suggest that mainstreaming is relevant to existing institutions, decision making processes, and tools in water management, but not “business as usual.” Rather mainstreaming espouses a need to integrate the effects of climate change into the norm of existing policy and project level stages of decision making in a way that is iterative, responsive, and adaptive over time. In the context of the Canadian water sector, the notion of mainstreaming is increasingly being considered, but is generally not the norm. Given a requirement that mainstreaming occur at both strategic and operational levels of decision-making, opportunities to enable mainstreaming in Canada need to include actions that fit within the traditional realm of water management (e.g., filling data gaps, addressing key uncertainties, building resilient infrastructure), yet also include a wider range of actions that fit within the broader context of society (e.g., addressing competing budget and policy priorities, political will, public support). Thus the integration of climate change adaptation into the mainstream of water resource management (termed “water adaptation” in this technical report) represents both the broad and complicated policy process as well as the operational activities within which many different actors, actions, interests, and objectives are involved. Although some have advocated for a more strategic approach to climate change adaptation in Canada,67,68 efforts to achieve this outcome currently lack coordination across levels of government, sectors, and organizations.
1.5. Broad policy environment for mainstreaming Given the diversity of actors, complexity of the science, importance of water to Canadian values, and the challenges balancing competing needs, there is merit in using a conceptual framework to represent the broader policy environment for mainstreaming. A review of over 15 frameworks revealed that existing climate change adaptation69,70,71,72 and water resource management frameworks73,74 are not sufficient to represent this breadth. Based on this research, a logic model was determined as the best tool for capturing the relationships between water resource management and climate change adaptation in Canada because it can, at a strategic level, characterize the current state of practice and potential paths forward that will enable mainstreaming of climate change adaptation.75,76 Figure 1 presents a logic model which is used as the conceptual framework for characterizing the broad policy environment in this technical report. This framework is one way of representing the policy space from the perspective of local practitioners, that is consistent with the broad range of considerations put forward by participants at the ‘Mainstream: National Water Adaptation to Climate Change Forum’ (herein referred to as the National Forum). It is not intended to be the only way to view the enabling environment for mainstreaming, but instead should be considered as a framework within which the activities, products, decisions, and policies can be viewed in the context of their relationship to strategic objectives and outcomes related to water adaptation. This model is a simplified way of representing the elements of climate change adaptation in water resource management and relationships between them. These elements are categorised in the model as inputs, activities and products intended to produce outcomes at various levels of governance. These outcomes ultimately have impacts at each of these levels and contribute to reaching an overarching goal of water security for all Canadians. Though the links between inputs and outputs are graphically represented in Figure 1 as discrete and linear elements in a chain, in reality they are not. Inputs and outputs are interchangeable (e.g., infrastructure appears on its own as an input and under adaptation measures as an 6
output) and are often part of longer and interconnected chains of elements. The arrows among boxes are intended to represent the looping and feedback that inevitably occurs to help avoid the perception that mainstreaming is a linear or prescriptive process following a step-by-step process. Rather it is expected that adaptation will evolve over time in a non-linear way given the inherent and large uncertainties associated with predicting future climate. Inputs represent the financial, technical, and human resources required to achieve particular outcomes, impacts, or goals.77 Based on a review of the current state of practice and discussions at the national forum, existing and relevant inputs range from investments, data, knowledge networks, tools, infrastructure, and technology. More detailed examples of inputs being developed by practitioners in climate change adaptation are presented in Table 1. For outputs, examples of climate change adaptation and mainstreaming activities can range from conducting impact and vulnerability assessments, to educating the public about climate change, to collecting data on water supply and demand. These activities, among others, serve any one or a combination of functions including (1) assessment, (2) prioritization, (3) coordination, (4) information management, and (5) climate risk reduction. These functions are intended to be comprehensive and robust across a broad range of policy levels (e.g., analyzing policy options, prioritizing policy issues, budgeting) and project level activities (e.g., planning, designing, monitoring and evaluating). They are also intended to represent a general, though fundamental, set of national-level functions proposed to help countries effectively adapt to climate change.78 Assessment activities tend to examine available information to guide decision-making. Prioritization activities assign special importance to identify the most critical opportunities for intervention. Coordination, engagement and communication activities ensure that those actors and stakeholders affected by climate change are both coordinated to avoid unnecessary duplication or gaps, involved in decision-making, and understand the impacts and solutions that are available. Information management activities ensure that relevant data are being collected and users have access, are aware, and understand available information. Climate risk reduction activities include identifying specific threats as well as reviewing, evaluating, selecting and implementing adaptation measures. The use of inputs while undertaking these activities results in the development of tangible products that some categorize as either hard adaptation (structural) or soft adaptation (non-structural).79 Table 2 summarizes some of the outputs currently being generated by practitioners.
7
INPUTS: Assets and Resources80 Investments • Budget allocations • Government / intergovernmental programs • Private funding • Other innovative funding mechanisms
Data • • • •
Tools
Climate scenarios Water supply / demand Biophysical data Socio-economic data
OUTPUTS:
• • • • •
Adaptation planning Communication Participatory Decision support Quantitative
Knowledge Networks Infrastructure and • Government agencies Technology • Climate consortiums • Communities of practice • Academia and research collaboratives • Traditional, indigenous, and local networks
Activities81
Adaptation Products82
Prioritization
Coordination
Climate Risk Reduction
… of regions, sectors, issues, populations, and/or adaptation measures based on assessment activities.
… includes coordination, engagement, and communication across all levels of decision making and stakeholder perspectives.
…includes the identification of specific risks to a given sector or issue and the review, evaluation, selection, and implementation of adaptation measures.
Information Management
Assessment … of climate effects, impacts, vulnerability, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and/or adaptation measures.
… includes the collection, analysis, and dissemination of data and knowledge.
OUTCOMES83 Sectors • Institutions that are designed, integrated, and have the capacity to address CCA • Knowledge and best practices in CCA that are developed and shared within / across sectors • Sectors that are aware and engaged in CCA • Water resources that are developed and managed proactively and reactively to climate change
Organizations and Communities • Knowledge and best practices in CCA that are developed and shared within / across organizations and communities • Organizations and communities that are aware and engaged in CCA • Water resources that are developed and managed proactively and reactively to climate change
• Water infrastructure • Engineering design and methods • Information technology
Governments84 (Federal, Provincial, and Territorial) • Legislation, regulation, and policy that is coherent, innovative, informed, and enables needs of CCA • Institutions and budgets that prioritize CCA • Data and science that are well coordinated and linked to needs of CCA • Sectors, organizations, communities, and individuals who are aware and engaged in CCA • Transboundary cooperation to support CCA
Individuals and Households • Individuals and households that are aware, engaged, and supportive of higher level investments in CCA • Water use practices that are proactive and reactive to climate change
Non-Structural (soft) • • • •
Policies / operational adaptation measures Knowledge Awareness Capacity
Structural (hard) • Engineering / technology adaptation measures • Data collection and monitoring systems / networks
IMPACTS85
GOAL86
Strengthened Adaptive Capacity
Water Security
Improved quality, availability, and access to resources, assets, skills, and products needed to adapt (technology, infrastructure, economic resources, equity, information skills / management, and institutions / networks).
Sustainable access, on a watershed basis, to adequate quantities of water of acceptable quality to ensure ecological sustainability, economic efficiency, and social equity.
Reduced Sensitivity Decreased extent to which human communities and ecosystems are affected by climate change as determined by the inherent properties of and external drivers acting on these systems.
Figure 1: Model, or framework, representing the broad policy environment that supports climate change adaptation and water resource management in Canada. Inputs and outputs in bold are described in more detail in Table 1 and Table 2. Endnotes provide links to supporting documentation. CCA stands for climate change adaptation.80 81 82 83 84 85 86 8
Table 1:
Examples and descriptions of inputs (as shown in Figure 1) related to water adaptation in Canada.
Category of input
Type of input
Description of input
Abbreviation
Data
Climate scenarios
Future climate projections/ data from Global Climate Models or downscaling tools.
CS
Tools
Adaptation planning
Analytical / planning approaches, frameworks, classification schemes, etc. for adaptation planning which could integrate other multiple tools, models, and/or approaches.
AP
Tools
Communicati on, participatory
Communication tools, guidance, engagement strategies, or participatory methods for consulting with stakeholders, scientists, decision makers, and others in the adaptation process.
CP
Tools
Decision support
Tools that help decision makers better understand the consequence of their decisions, assess trade-offs among competing priorities, or make choices that are more informed by climate change.
DS
Tools
Quantitative
Method for analyzing data or quantitative models for representing the functional relationships among biophysical or socio-economic variables in a system of interest (e.g., hydrology models).
QN
Table 2:
Examples and descriptions of outputs (as shown in Figure 1) related to water adaptation in Canada.
Category of output
Type of output
Description of output
Abbreviation
Knowledge
Adaptation study or plan
Regional, community, or watershed examples within which adaptation planning frameworks and/or analytical tools have been applied to identify adaptation measures.
AS
Knowledge
Vulnerability assessment
Studies that describe the historic or future impacts of climate change on water resources and interpret these impacts through a lens of social and/or biophysical vulnerability of watersheds, ecosystems, or communities.
VA
9
Table 2 continued on next page …
Category of output
Type of output
Description of output
Abbreviation
Knowledge
Biophysical impact assessment
Studies that document the historic or characterize expected future impacts of climate change on water resources (i.e., changes in water quantity and/or water quality).
BI
Knowledge
Economic impact assessment
Studies that describe the historic or project future economic impacts of climate change on water resources, and/or vulnerability of watersheds, ecosystems, or human communities.
EC
Knowledge
Meetings
Meetings / conferences that provide a venue for practitioners to share ideas and discuss issues related to climate change adaptation.
MT
Knowledge
Electronic media
Online databases, compendia or web portals hosting information related to water resources and climate change adaptation.
EM
Knowledge
Social media
Discussion forums, blogs, and twitter feeds related to water resources and climate change adaptation.
SM
Adaptation measures
Engineering and technology
“Hard” adaptation strategies related to engineering approaches, infrastructure, or technology that directly affects water management (e.g., measures that benefit human health and wellbeing, the built environment, economic activities, and/or ecosystem form / function).
ET
Adaptation measures
Policy and operational
“Soft” adaptation strategies related to policies, regulations, and management approaches that affect water resources (e.g., measures that enable adaptation by reducing barriers to and/or creating opportunities for action).
PO
Taken together, the purpose of using inputs to undertake activities and develop specific products is to achieve some broader and desired outcomes related to water resource management – defined as changes in behaviour, the physical environment, or social context.87 Water resource managers, practitioners, policy and decision-makers, as well as the Canadian public can all be held accountable for achieving outcomes across the levels of water governance of which they are a part. In line with an integrated approach to water resource management, key outcomes must address several factors including: • 10
the enabling environment (as influenced by federal, provincial and territorial governments);
• •
institutional frameworks (involving water sectors such as power generation, agriculture, fisheries, recreation, and tourism among others); and the design and development of management instruments (including water organizations and communities).88
There is also a role of the federal, provincial, and territorial governments for provisioning and coordinating the collection of data, disseminating science, promoting regulatory innovation and coherence, and engaging others in decision making.89 Striving to achieve adaptation outcomes across all levels of water governance can have a direct and positive impact on the vulnerability of Canada’s water resources, human communities, and ecosystems to perturbations due to climate change. Vulnerability, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is a function of the exposure to climate change, sensitivity of the system to that change, and adaptive capacity of the system to respond and adapt.90Decision makers can only directly influence the inherent attributes of a system including the extent to which it is affected by climate change (sensitivity), and the skills, resources and assets available within a system to respond to that change (adaptive capacity).91 In the Canadian context, water security is a goal that has been defined as the “sustainable access, on a watershed basis, to adequate quantities of water of acceptable quality, to ensure human and ecosystem health.”92Although the concept of water security is increasingly being used as a framework for understanding and managing water resources, building water security has always been at the foundation of many disciplines, including engineering, public health, planning, ecology, and agriculture. These disciplines are also accustomed to operating and planning within the context of an unpredictable future because feedbacks between water supply, demand, and quality add pressures to the hydrologic cycle and water infrastructure that require adjustments over time. However, our ability to achieve water security under current modes of management is significantly challenged by climate change. Balancing multiple and often conflicting uses of water becomes increasingly complex, and the availability of water and likelihood of water-related hazards become increasingly uncertain in the context of climate change. Thus, efforts to strengthen adaptive capacity within the practice of water resource management, and reduce sensitivity to hazards are directly aligned with achieving the broader goal of water security for all Canadians today and into the future.
1.6. Alternative perspectives on water resource management Complementary to an understanding of the broad policy environment is a need for a common understanding of the alternative perspectives one might view or define the terms ‘water resources’ and ‘water resource management’ across Canada. A common understanding is important because there are several ‘lenses’ from which to interpret ‘water resource management,’ each of which has unique viewpoints. These perspectives and viewpoints vary by individual and will depend on his or her background, experience, and role in water resource management. Figure 2 provides an illustration of three alternative perspectives. Any individual will have ‘water interests’ that are simultaneously linked to one or multiple ‘water sectors’ and concerns specific to a set of ‘water issues’. The definitions of these terms are described here to provide consistency of language and understanding throughout this technical report.
11
Figure 2: Alternative perspectives from which to view water resource management in Canada.
Water interests represent the alternative viewpoints of individuals or organizations, based on their roles in water resource management. Examples of water interests include: • • • • • • • • • • •
water purveyors rural communities, local or regional municipalities local watershed stewardship organizations, irrigation districts, conservation authorities indigenous people provincial / territorial agencies with strong to weak capacity federal agencies domestic water users advocacy organizations (e.g., NGOs) research organizations / consortiums businesses with climate sensitive industries93 media
An individual water interest (e.g., a provincial or federal agency) can be involved in multiple water sectors and be concerned with several water issues. Water sectors represent the array of environmental, economic, and social domains of water use and consumption that individuals or organizations value (e.g., municipal, agricultural, and ecosystem needs for water, see Table 3). Water resource management within a given water sector typically involves multiple water interests for a set of issues (e.g., farmers, local watershed stewards, a provincial water agency, and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada can all be involved when dealing with drought, aridity, and groundwater supply in the agricultural sector).
12
Table 3:
Summary of water sectors involved in water adaptation across Canada.
Water sectors
Examples of activities and issues relevant to sector
Abbreviation
Municipal supply and quality
Water supply, water demand, and water quality
MS
Municipal waste and stormwater
Wastewater and stormwater runoff
MW
Rural domestic
Water supply and water quality
RD
Human health
Human safety and health services (e.g., waterborne disease)
HH
Industry and commercial
Manufacturing, wastewater, and bottling
IC
Agriculture and ranching
Irrigation, stockwatering, and conveyance
AR
Natural resource extraction
Forestry, mining, oil and gas
NR
Power generation
Hydro power and cooling water
PW
Fisheries
Freshwater harvesting (including anadromous fish) and fish farming
FS
Recreation and tourism
Parks, fishing, and water related activities
RT
Transportation
Infrastructure on land and through navigable waters
TR
Culture and subsistence
Cultural and subsistence activities reliant on water security CU (e.g., fishing, hunting, gathering, water collection)
Ecosystems
Form and function of coastal, in-channel, and riparian ecosystems
EC
Water issues represent the alternative viewpoints on water as a natural resource. Water issues tend to focus on hydrologic processes and their relation to water quantity and quality. Within the context of climate change, water issues are directly affected by shifting trends in climate and weather events (e.g., changes in discharge or groundwater supply, (see Table 4). Certain water issues will be more or less relevant to specific water interests and sectors. The water issues provide the biophysical context for water management that affects the alternative water sectors and water interests.
13
Table 4:
Summary of water issues relevant to water adaptation across Canada.
Issue themes
Water issue
Abbreviation
Streamflow
Short term water balance (year to year variability and seasonality in flow)
SW
Long term water balance (regulated baseflow, wetlands and groundwater recharge)
LW
Hydrologic drought
HD
Inland flooding and erosion (associated with storm events, peak flows, rain on snow)
FE
Agricultural drought (deficit associated with high Soil moisture and Evapotranspiration evapotranspiration)
AD
Excess and aridity (surplus / deficit associated with high / low soil moisture)
EA
Groundwater
Recharge, discharge, aquifer levels, and quality (e.g., salt water intrusion)
GW
Water quality
Temperature, nutrients, sediment, pollution, dissolved oxygen, etc.
WQ
Lakes
Lake levels
LL
Ice cover
IC
Snow cover
SP
Glaciers
GI
Permafrost
SP
Ice caps
GI
Sea ice
SI
Coastal inundation (associated with sea level rise and storm events)
CI
Coastal erosion (associated with storm events)
CE
Snow and ice
Oceans
14
Clearly, the above three perspectives are highly interdependent. For instance, a local watershed interest (e.g., Toronto and Region Conservation Authority) may have a role in balancing water management objectives across multiple sectors (e.g., municipal, agriculture, and ecosystem sectors) and for many water issues (e.g., flooding and drought conditions, groundwater supply and quality).Likewise, a single water issue would affect multiple water sectors or interests. These perspectives and viewpoints are also an important complement to the logic model in Figure 1 because they represent the frames of reference or current ‘silos’ within which practitioners, managers, and policy makers tend to operate in the broader policy environment of ‘water resource management.’ It is the combination, integration, and interaction of the above three perspectives that lead to the outcomes, impacts, and broader goal of water security.
15
2.UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT STATE OFPRACTICE IN WATER ADAPTATION This section summarizes the state of practice in water adaptation from two frames of reference. Section 2.1 provides a cross-cutting overview of the current situation as framed within the broad policy elements in the logic model from Figure 1 (data, monitoring networks, knowledge, tools, knowledge networks, infrastructure and technology, adaptation measures, awareness, capacity, and investments). Section 2.2 provides a brief summary of the state of practice and examples of related activities and products for a subset of water issues in Table 5. These summaries are not intended to be exhaustive. They are informed principally by the dialogue among practitioners at the national forum and a review of The Compendium of knowledge on water adaptation.94
2.1. An overview by policy elements 2.1.1. Data As used in the context of this report, the term ‘data’ refer to the collection of measurements from monitoring stations or results from climate modelling which can be used in analytical tools or assessments to generate knowledge and make informed decisions (e.g., to provide analysts with measurements of how much water is in a stream at a particular time of year or how that streamflow will fluctuate under future climate conditions). Relevant data are critical so decision makers can best know how, where, and when to adapt to the effects of climate change. A variety of different organizations and tools are available across North America for providing high resolution climate projections from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). These organizations include the Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network (CCCSN),95 Ouranos Consortium,96 Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC),97 the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources,98 the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP),99 and The Nature Conservancy.100 Water quantity and water quality data are collected through the federal Hydrometric Program,101 which are supplemented by data collected through provincial and territorial water monitoring programs. Additional data are sometimes collected by local governments, academia, and private businesses (tailored for specific needs), but these data tend to be less accessible (due to being proprietary), less geographically diverse, and not as well coordinated as federal and provincial monitoring programs. Collection of water quantity data tends to be more extensive and better coordinated than water quality monitoring. Data on water use is variable but generally weak and fragmented, with little monitoring of the amount and timing of use for water being accessed through the licensing regimes of several provinces / territories. Data that characterizes the supply, quality, and extraction of groundwater is particularly weak.102 Though accessibility to water quantity and quality data has generally improved over recent years, its accessibility to the public is varied across jurisdictions and water issues remain a low priority in specific geographic areas. Through the movement to make data more accessible, a project called the Water and Environmental Hub was established and provides a good example of a web-accessible data portal, although the current repository is not exhaustive.
16
2.1.2. Monitoring networks Monitoring networks include the collection of thousands of sites and stations across the country which measure water-related parameters such as precipitation, air temperature, snowpack, glacier cover, stream flows, lake levels, and water quality. Water monitoring networks have been noted as declining in recent decades and other reviews have provided a more detailed assessment of the state of water monitoring networks in Canada.103,104,105 Generally, the size and structure of the hydrometric network has been deemed insufficient for characterizing water resources given that existing monitoring networks were originally established to address applications with a more engineering and design focused consideration. The greater diversity of water issues that are relevant to climate change highlights the importance of maintaining and enhancing existing monitoring networks. For instance, the Canadian Council of Ministers of Environment (CCME) has developed guidance on tools for evaluating existing water monitoring networks to improve their size and structure in service of needs for climate change adaptation.106
2.1.3. Knowledge Knowledge is different than data in that it includes the analysis and accumulation of facts and observations to provide an understanding about how human communities and the natural environment function in response to climate change. Knowledge is essential for enabling effective and evidence-based decision-making in water adaptation. Within the past decade substantial progress has been made in the development of knowledge related to climate change adaptation, both domestically and internationally. In Canada, knowledge to support water adaptation varies across regions, sectors, and issues.
Box 2 :
Example of Data Versus Knowledge74
For instance, helping decision makers understand the consequence of a 2˚C increase in summer air temperature, whereby the ‘consequences’ of the 2˚C increase represents the knowledge and the quantification of a 2˚C increase represents the data.
Streamflow tends to have the most advanced state of knowledge among water issues (see Section 2.2). Both the baseline understanding and knowledge about the impacts of climate change are limited for groundwater. Similarly, there is comparably little knowledge about the impacts of climate change on lake levels and ice cover. In the Prairies, there is a high level of baseline knowledge about droughts and soil moisture, yet an imperfect understanding about the impacts of climate change and appropriate adaptation responses. When viewed by water sector, the power generation, municipal, agricultural, and transportation sectors appear to be leaders in generating knowledge and understanding the effects of climate change on their operations and activities. This leadership is based, in part on the vulnerability of these sectors to the effects of climate change and their elevated capacity to address knowledge gaps. For instance, the energy sector has specific operational needs to understand the impact of climate change on water supplies and water quality (e.g., water temperature). These factors are critical to various aspects of power generation, including the preservation of flows for hydroelectricity, maintenance of cooling waters used in thermal generation (e.g., nuclear, coal, and natural gas), and protection of infrastructure from flooding. As such, this sector has demonstrated significant capacity to address knowledge gaps in water 17
adaptation.107,108,109,110,111 Municipalities are also highly vulnerable to climate-induced impacts on flooding, drought, and water quality. In turn these municipalities have some capacity to address these water issues in their day-to-day operations and longer term planning horizons, particularly with respect to water treatment, conveyance, and wastewater infrastructure. The agriculture112 and transportation113,114 sectors are also highly vulnerable and have been increasing their understanding about the impacts of climate change and knowledge about water adaptation. Progress has been made in developing knowledge for other sectors, like tourism and recreation115,116 and ecosystems,117,118,119 yet the state of knowledge is far from comprehensive across issues and regions that are relevant within these sectors. Significant gaps remain in the coordination and integration of traditional, indigenous and local knowledge across sectors Geographically there is significant variation in the state of knowledge across Canada. The majority of knowledge tends to be focused in urban watersheds, close to populated areas, as well as in watersheds where water use or consumption provides significant economic benefits, or where water hazards pose risks to economic prosperity. Knowledge of rural and remote watersheds / communities, especially in the north, is limited. There is further variation across provinces and territories. A sampling of the geographic distribution of knowledge supported predominantly by the RAC program is illustrated in Figure 3 and Table 5. The Compendium of knowledge on water adaptation provides a relatively comprehensive and more specific snapshot of the knowledge being generated in Canada and abroad. The word cloud in Figure 4A provides a qualitative illustration of the emphasis of knowledge in The Compendium according to its geographic location. Locations with a higher frequency of citation in The Compendium have a larger font size: Quebec, Ontario, and BC are most frequently associated with knowledge in The Compendium; Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Prince Edward Island are the next most frequently cited; the remaining provinces and territories are the least cited. The Compendium provides an overview of the state of knowledge from a variety of other perspectives. Figure 4B illustrates the frequency of words used to describe this knowledge. The most frequently cited words illustrate the expected emphasis on core and cross-cutting aspects of water adaptation, mainly climate change, water, impacts, and adaptation. This word cloud also supports the earlier characterization of the broad policy environment by emphasizing the core activities (studying, assessing, planning, managing, and reporting) and elements (inputs / outputs) related to water adaptation (communities, projects, sectors, research, information, resources, infrastructure, tools, policies, vulnerabilities, and risks). Figure 5 shows the relative distribution of the content according to a subset of policy elements (inputs / outputs), scales of relevance, water sectors, and water issues. ‘Adaptation planning tools’, ‘Adaptation studies / plans,’ and ‘Policy / operational’ adaptation measures are the categories with the greatest number of entries. Entries from the ‘Knowledge’ category represent a variety of scales of relevance, though entries with regional relevance are the least common. Knowledge is available for a variety of water sectors and water issues, though gaps in knowledge remain in the sectors of human health and culture / subsistence, as well as for issues such as lake levels, ice cover, snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, ice caps, and sea ice. Though not obvious in 5, a glaring gap in The Compendium is the paucity of information about the social and economic impacts of climate change on specific water sectors and geographic regions as well as knowledge illustrating the potential economic benefits of adaptation.
18
Figure 3: Map of a sample of projects in water resource adaptation across Canada according to dominant water issue. Project IDs and an overview are provided in Table 5. 19
Table 5:
An overview of projects mapped in Figure 3. All projects were funded, in part, by the RAC program, except ID 12.
ID
Project Title
Lead Organization
Location
Description
1
Water balance model upgrade
BC Ministry of Agriculture and Lands
BC
Decision support and scenario modeling tool for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources, and promoting rainwater management and protection of stream health.
2
Climate change adaptation guidelines for sea dikes and coastal flood hazard land use
BC Ministry of Environment
BC
Guidelines for the management of lands that are exposed to coastal flood hazards arising from their exposure to the sea and to expected sea level rise due to climate change.
3
Updating regulatory tools in response to climate change
BC Ministry of Environment
BC
Enhanced a variety of existing regulatory tools (Riparian Areas Regulation, Fisheries Sensitive Watersheds and Temperature Sensitive Stream designations) to better address climate change and its impacts on watersheds, fish habitats, and fish.
4
Water and watershed planning guidebook: Rethinking our waterways
Fraser Basin Council
BC
Guidebook providing an overview of water-related impacts of climate change and water, and watershed management planning to protect drinking water quality.
5
Participatory flood management planning in Delta
University of British Columbia
Delta, BC
Flood adaptation planning in the Fraser River community of Delta using participatory approaches and visualization tools.
6
Watershed management evaluation tool
University of British Columbia
San Jose River watershed, BC
An integrated model to evaluate proposed management options under a range of possible future climates.
7
Okanagan irrigation management tool
BC Ministry of Agriculture and Lands
Okanagan watershed, BC
A tool allowing for the comparison of actual and theoretical water use using the Agricultural Water Demand Model to help improve water resource management.
8
Okanagan water supply and demand study
Okanagan Basin Water Board
Okanagan watershed, BC
An inventory and model of water supply and management in the basin to assess the impact of climate change on
20
Table 5 continued on p. 21
ID
Project Title
Lead Organization
Location
Description patterns of water supply / demand and evaluate management actions.
9
Development of an interprovincial drought communication framework
Saskatchewan Watershed Authority
Prairie Provinces
Development of recommendations to improve the structure and content of an Interprovincial Drought Communication Framework for the Prairie Provinces (AB, SK, and MB).
10
Moose Jaw River watershed Saskatchewan drought and excessive moisture Watershed Authority preparedness plans
Moose Jaw River watershed, Saskatchewan
The development and implementation of a stakeholderbased planning process to increasing resilience to drought and excessive moisture in primarily agricultural watersheds.
11
Source water protection: Ontario
Toronto and Region Conservation Authority
Ontario
A project to enable source protection committees to understand and integrate the impacts of climate change on source protection to reduce the vulnerability of water resources through the development of technical guidance, supporting data access tools, and training.
12
Lake Simcoe watershed climate change vulnerability assessment water quality and quantity
Ontario Ministry of Environment
Lake Simcoe, Ontario
Water balance modelling to determine the impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle, including sensitivity to a variety of water quantity and water quality indicators.
13
Analysis and adaptation to climate change of management tools for water resources of the Ottawa River watershed
Sherbrooke University
Ottawa River watershed, Quebec
Provisioning of climate change adaptation tools for modeling and managing water resources in the Lièvre River System.
14
A system to forecast low water levels as a method to adapt to climate change impacts
École de technologie supérieure (ÉTS)-Québec University
Selected watersheds in Quebec
Implementation of a prototype system to forecast mediumterm low water levels in selected Quebec watersheds (Yamaska, Lièvre and Péribonka).
15
Integrating the impact of climate change in the
INRS-ETE Quebec University
Selected dams in Quebec
Study on the impact of climate change on probable maximum flood calculations to better incorporate climate
21
Table 5 continued on p. 22
ID
Project Title
Lead Organization
Location
assessment of probable maximum floods to support reviews of dam safety
Description change in safety reviews of dams (at Kénogami and Choinière).
16
Water use efficiency and conservation in the Saint Lawrence watershed
Laval University
Saint Lawrence River watershed, Quebec
Identification of adaptation measures for conservation and efficient use of water in the St. Lawrence Watershed to increase resilience to climate change.
17
Sea ice sensitivity to climate warming in the Gulf and Estuary of the Saint Lawrence
Quebec University at Rimouski (UQAR), supported by Ouranos
Saint Lawrence seaway, Quebec
A regional ocean-ice simulation model to assess current and projected future sea ice thickness across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence.
18
Vulnerability of coastal aquifers to seawater intrusion in Nova Scotia
Saint Francis Xavier University
Three locations in Nova Scotia
Assessment of the distribution of salinity in coastal aquifers and the vulnerability of these aquifers to seawater intrusion from sea level rise (in Wolfville, Pugwash, and around Halifax).
19
Construction and analysis of flood risk maps for select coastal communities in Nova Scotia
Nova Scotia Community College
Coastal communities in Nova Scotia
Using LiDAR to map coastal flood risk under climate change, and engage with stakeholders to create action plans for managing risks.
20
Saltwater intrusion project in Newfoundland
Newfoundland and Labrador Dept. of Env. and Conservation
Southwest coast of Newfoundland
A study to help develop policies for groundwater management and sea level rise.
21
Bathymetric and watershed maps of Cape Dorset reservoirs
L’Institute de recherché du Nunavut, Nunavut Dept. of Community and Gov’t Services
Cape Dorset, Nunavut
Project surveys remote lakes to better understand drinking water supplies and develop infrastructure that is resilient to climate change and enhances northern water security.
22
(A)
(B)
Figure 4: Word clouds representing the frequency of words in The Compendium of knowledge that are used to: (A) describe the geographic location of all entries; and (B) describe the content for all entries. Larger words are cited more frequently in The Compendium. 23
2.1.4. Tools Successful mainstreaming of water adaptation requires having access to and understanding how to use appropriate analytical and engagement tools that enable the transition from awareness to action. These tools include adaptation planning, communication, participatory, decision support and quantitative tools. Examples that are currently available or are currently being developed include those which: • • • • • •
provide an understanding of climate science and future climate projections;120,121 improve decision making related of water resources122,123 and forests124by identifying social and cultural values125through structured decision-making techniques,126among other approaches; help citizens and decision-makers visualize future changes and water-related climate impacts;127,128 predict quantitative changes in hydrology129,130 and the vulnerability of human communities to floods,131,132 among other issues; guide communities through the steps of developing vulnerability assessments133,134 or climate adaptation plans / strategies;135,136,137,138,139,140 and allow decision makers to better understand the implications of their decisions on ecosystems,141 the hydrological cycle,142 droughts,143 and watershed management.144
Accessibility of these tools is improving with the development of many compendia that compile and summarize the wide range of options available to practitioners.145,146147,148,149 With the increasing development and availability of tools, however, comes a need to validate these tools and invest in the skills and experience to ensure their successful deployment.
2.1.5. Knowledge networks Having the appropriate data, knowledge and tools are insufficient on their own for water adaptation to be successful. Knowledge networks are needed to ensure this information is appropriately disseminated, integrated, communicated and acted upon. Knowledge networks include practitioners serving a range of roles: technical experts, communicators, and end-users. Knowledge generation requires technical experts with a clear understanding of the needs of end-users, access to data at the appropriate scale and resolution and experience with the tools to perform relevant assessments. Knowledge transfer requires translators who can communicate complex information and uncertainties related to climate change and make it relevant and meaningful for end-users (e.g., decision makers, policy makers). Knowledge consumption requires that end-users are motivated and able to take action in response to the best available information. All roles in the knowledge network should ideally be supported with sufficient expertise, time, and financial resources.
24
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Scale
AD Study Vuln Ass't Biophy IA Econ IA Climate Scen Policy / Oper Engin / Techn All Measures AD Tools C-P Tools DS Tools QU Tools Social Media Elect Media Meet Reports
Knowledge Types
240 Sector of Origin
200
160
160
120
120
80
80
40
40
0
0
Water Issue
CC FE DA WB BA GW AD SM WQ IC LL SP GI SI IN CE
200
240
CC MS MW RD HH IC AR NR PW FS RT TR CS EC
Number of Compendium Entries
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Figure 5: Histograms representing the number of entries in The Compendium of knowledge as summarized by four key dimensions. Abbreviations for inputs / outputs provided in Table 1 and Table 2 for water sectors in, and for water issues in Table 4. CC means cross-cutting. 25
Knowledge networks include both ad hoc and deliberate collections of individuals and organizations that are active in the field of adaptation to climate change in the context Canadian water resource management. Some key examples of networks include: • •
• •
The Canadian Water Network (CWN)connecting researchers, practitioners, implementers, and policy-makers in water resource science and management across Canada;150 The Climate Change Adaptation Community of Practice (CCaCop) an online community of researchers, experts, and practitioners working in climate change adaptation across Canada (hosted by the OCCIAR and funded by the Council of the Federation);151 The regional networks established in all parts of the country through NRCan’s RAC program (Atlantic,152 Quebec, Ontario, Prairies,153BC, and the North); and The water management committee of CCME, the major intergovernmental forum for developing nationally consistent environmental standards and practices.154
Other important networks include the Ouranos Consortium, the PCIC, the CWRA, Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS), Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI), and the Climate Adaptation Knowledge Network. World-class academics from universities across the country are heavily involved in these networks, which include members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These organizations are actively involved in a range of activities that ultimately support mainstreaming of water adaptation, as evidenced by the National Water Strategy facilitated by the Canadian Water Resources Association,155the regional climate services meeting among stakeholders, climate service providers, technical experts, and the media, hosted by the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium,156 and the National Water Forum hosted by the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy to improve management and governance of water resources in Canada’s natural resources sector.157Though a range of networks exist, none are nationally relevant, supported with long term funding, focused on adaptation to climate change in the water sector, and targeted towards a broad range of roles in mainstreaming (e.g., practitioners, managers, policy makers, and the public).
2.1.6. Infrastructure and technology Water-related infrastructure and technology support quality of life, economic competitiveness, and overall sustainability across Canada. Water infrastructure lies at the interface of human communities, the hydrologic cycle, water resources and climate. Infrastructure and technology are important across all water sectors. Key water infrastructure considered in this report includes: • • • • • •
stormwater and flood protection control structures, wastewater, drinking water supply, water treatment; transportation infrastructure such as road drainage, bridges, and culverts; industrial and commercial infrastructure related to pumping, treatment, and discharge; energy infrastructure, including hydroelectric dams, reservoirs, and generating stations; and agricultural infrastructure related to pumping, conveyance, storage and irrigation.
A range of technologies are available for any given infrastructure need (e.g., alternative design standards for culverts, bridges, and dykes, technologies for irrigation, and techniques for managing rainwater / stormwater). These alternatives will vary in cost, efficiency, technological sophistication, and ultimately their resilience to climate change. 26
It is generally recognized that water infrastructure across Canada is currently in a state of deficit with much of it approaching the end of its useful life.158 This stress is exemplified by the fact that up to 30 percent of all treated water in Canada is lost due to leaking water supply lines;159an abundance of Aboriginal communities have poor drinking water quality;160 and a significant level of investment is needed to enhance water supply, stormwater, and wastewater systems, as well as transportation infrastructure.161 Others also point to a significant and growing ‘adaptation deficit,’ referring to the gap between the increasing magnitude of damages being done by extreme weather events and the correspondingly slow pace of development in infrastructure, technologies, and practices in response to those hazards.162Further, it is recognized that current infrastructure and related technologies are inefficient,163 which reduces the resiliency of Canada’s infrastructure to the effects of climate change. The private sector has also identified Canada’s water infrastructure deficit as a core risk to business activities.164
2.1.7. Adaptation measures Though progress has been made, there remain significant gaps across Canada in the implementation of structural (hard) and non-structural (soft) adaption measures. Many sectors and regions struggle in knowing how, where and when to adapt. A variety of studies and assessments explore ways to improve structural adaptation. For instance, progress is being made to advance the knowledge needed to support adaptation of stormwater management systems165,166,167 and other public infrastructure.168 Guidelines are now available to help protect individuals169,170,171 and communities from extreme climate events such as flooding.172,173 Despite this progress, on the ground implementation of structural adaptation and applicable guidelines remains limited, though there is a strong appetite among practitioners. This limitation is reflected by the lack of pilot projects or case studies in The Compendium to showcase structural adaptation. Though also limited, examples of non-structural adaptation illustrate the kinds of changes to policies, regulations, and management approaches that are possible in water adaptation (e.g., adaptive policies for water allocation). For instance, the Northwest Territories water strategy explicitly integrates climate change into resource planning.174 In Ontario, recent updates to the Clean Water Act and Source Water Protection Program have been expanded to include quantitative considerations of climate change, mandated where necessary.175In Manitoba a new provincial planning regulation includes provisions to encourage communities to anticipate and plan for the impacts of climate change and to implement adaptation strategies through various planning documents and processes.176,177 In BC, guidelines for sea dikes and land use with coastal flood hazards have been developed,178the Riparian Areas Regulation is being updated to account for the potential impacts of climate change,179 and the Government Actions Regulation is being developed to allow for the evaluation, designation, and monitoring of Fisheries Sensitive Watersheds and Temperature Sensitive Streams.180 Further progress is also being made to update engineering guidelines that will enhance the resilience of infrastructure (e.g., updating intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves181,182). Although structural and non-structural adaptation measures differ in terms of their impact on the ground, both can lead to similar benefits, including strengthened capacity, improved knowledge, heightened awareness, and reduced sensitivity of human communities (e.g., through more resilient infrastructure / technology). In general, the greatest progress in terms of implementing adaptation measures has been at strengthening capacity and knowledge as opposed to increasing resilience of water infrastructure. 27
2.1.8. Awareness Awareness of climate change, its urgency, and adaption of water resource management is important for mainstreaming because it can improve the level of understanding about impacts and solutions, increase public support for adaptation and enhance the political will to act. Awareness varies across sectors, issues, and regions, which may be driven, in part by the level of connectedness of an individual or organization to the effects of climate change and related impacts on water resources. For instance, awareness appears high in rural and northern watersheds where people are more closely connected to water and have witnessed first-hand impacts on their local environments and livelihoods (e.g., indigenous people, fishermen, farmers, and hunters). In contrast, awareness of water adaptation appears lower in urban and more populated areas which tend to be less connected to the hydrologic cycle. Variation in awareness is further illustrated by the observation among participants at the National Forum that technical experts and many decision makers tend to have a high level of awareness about the problem, though many decision makers still struggle in understanding vulnerability to historic / existing climate conditions in robust ways. In contrast, the public and politicians have a much lower level of awareness of the urgency and need for climate change adaptation with the public often perceiving climate change as an abstract phenomenon that will cause indirect and distant effects on human wellbeing.183 It was also noted that in a few isolated cases there has been hesitation to raise awareness due to the potential liabilities to which some sectors could be exposed if they identify the potential impacts of extreme events on property and individuals. Across water sectors, awareness was characterized by participants at the National Forum as follows:184 •
•
•
•
Municipal drinking water supply and quality: Awareness is higher in urban than in rural areas and along the coasts where drinking water is being affected by sea level rise. There is a general lack of awareness of the connectedness between drinking water quality and climate change. Municipal waste and stormwater: Awareness is generally high especially among municipal water managers and lower among elected officials and the public. The sector tends to be highly aware about how extreme events affect infrastructure and local economies, but is less aware of the link between those events and climate change. Power generation, natural resources, agriculture and ranching: Given the diversity among these sectors, awareness is highly varied though it tends to be low. For some within these sectors, awareness is increasing rapidly as extreme events are seen to have impacts on business operations. Ecosystems: Awareness appears high among technical experts and stakeholders, but low among policy makers.
2.1.9. Capacity Capacity represents the potential or ability of a human community to adapt to the effects of climate change as characterized by the strength of the institutions, availability of financial resources, and level of skills or experience.185 Investments through NRCan’s RAC program, in partnership with the provinces, territories and other stakeholders, have increased the capacity for practicing water adaptation across the country. In particular, these investments have led to the support and development of individuals, organizations, and sectors, many of whom are discussed elsewhere in Section 2.1. Those with the greatest capacity represent a small portion of all those who have a role in mainstreaming. There is a disparity in the capacity between these 28
leaders and those who are not as advanced in water adaptation. Some steps have been taken to identify those groups, regions, and sectors with the least capacity who may also be the most vulnerable.186,187,188,189 Although there is a role for individuals and households in mainstreaming adaptation to climate change (see Figure 1), they also have very little capacity to adapt at a personal level given limited financial resources, time, expertise, skills, and energy. There is a well-established and strong baseline capacity in the institutions and models of governance related to water. However, as emphasized by this research, decision makers within these institutions are challenged to effectively mainstream climate change, due in part to a persistent paradigm that water management tends to be reactive and most responsive to extreme events such as droughts and floods. Many others have also noted a need to improve the adaptive governance of Canada’s water institutions despite some strengths in existing capacity.190,191,192,193 Lastly, relatively short electoral cycles constrain development of long term capacity within those institutions with responsibilities for water. The skills and financial resources available for water adaptation vary significantly among urban, rural, and remote watersheds. Though capacity may be high in urban areas and more populated provinces, the access and availability to skills and resources is generally less in remote and rural areas, such as the north, Atlantic coast, and the Prairies. Skills and financial resources also vary across sectors. For instance, power generators tend to have the financial resources and technical skills to address the impacts of climate change on its power production needs. In contrast, other sectors, such as agriculture / ranching, transportation, tourism / recreation, and ecosystems are viewed as having less capacity.
2.1.10.
Investments
Though all inputs are important, financial investments from both public (across levels of government) and private (businesses and non-governmental organizations) interests are essential for enabling the mobilization of people, development of knowledge, and construction of water infrastructure and technology. Environment Canada is the lead federal agency on climate change and water with responsibilities related to monitoring, research, and modelling. However, as water is a cross-cutting issue, all federal departments have had a role both these areas. Notably, NRCan’s Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division, and their Climate Change Adaptation Program have invested in developing and sharing knowledge and tools that will help integrate adaptation to climate change into policy, plans, and projects across Canada. For example, the RAC Program has supported stakeholders, technical experts, and practitioners across all levels of government and industry to help reduce the risks and enable opportunities related to climate change and water. Other federal programs include Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada’s investments in its Climate Change Adaptation Program to improve water quality and food security (among other issues) across indigenous communities, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s investments in tools to build resiliency in the agricultural sector, and Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s investments in its Aquatic Climate Change Adaptation Services Program to develop knowledge and tools to mainstream adaptation to climate change into its operations. Another important federal initiative includes the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE), which has invested in independent and innovative studies related to climate change adaptation across water sectors in Canada. Moreover, federal investments through the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) have led to contributions from the research community in the state of knowledge related to climate change adaptation. 29
All provinces and territories have invested in climate change adaptation to varying degrees, based in part, on their financial and technical capacity. Most have a high-level strategy in place to address climate change impacts.194,195,196,197 Investments have either been integrated into existing agencies or dedicated branches that have been created to support activities related to water adaptation (e.g., BC Climate Action Secretariat, Alberta Climate Change Secretariat, Manitoba Climate and Green Initiatives Branch, Ouranos in Quebec, New Brunswick Climate Change Secretariat, Climate Change Unit of the Northwest Territories). Provinces and territories have also invested in water adaptation by generating knowledge through the CCME,198 and by building capacity and innovation within scientific and business communities through Mitacs, a not-forprofit research organization. Local watershed authorities and municipal governments are at the forefront of mainstreaming and some with the greatest capacity that are also the most vulnerable have invested to better understand the impact of climate change on their day to day operations and longer term planning (e.g., Toronto and Region Conservation Authority,199 Saskatchewan Watershed Authority,200 Columbia Basin Trust201). At a national level, the Federation of Canadian Municipalities has also invested in research to enable mainstreaming among municipalities across the country.202 Private and professional interests have also recognized the importance and urgency of water adaptation. Examples of such organizations include those representing a range of business interests and professionals including the Conference Board of Canada,203 Engineers Canada,204 Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction,205 Canadian Institute of Planners, and Insurance Bureau of Canada.206 Independent and climate sensitive businesses with strong capacity have invested to improve their corporate resilience (e.g., Coca Cola Canada, Rio Tinto Alcan, Hydro-Québec207). Non-governmental or non-profit organizations have also invested in efforts to improve water adaptation for ecological and cultural values (e.g., World Wildlife Fund Canada208 and Centre for Indigenous Environmental Resources209).
2.2. A summary by water issue 2.2.1. Streamflow Overview “Streamflow” refers to the range of issues associated with the short term (seasonality and year to year variability in flow) and long term (changes in natural or regulated baseflow) water balance of the hydrologic cycle. The term “discharge” is also often used interchangeably. The baseline understanding of streamflow is advanced relative to other issues. Various tools and models have been developed to understand and manage streamflows in response to climate change. For example, new models allow for a consideration of climate change into hydrologic impact assessments210 and better forecasts of future stream flows.211,212 These models are increasingly being used to determine how changes in water supplies will affect energy production213 and freshwater ecosystems.214In BC, updates to existing regulations are being considered based on the results of these assessments.215 New assessment tools allow for the evaluation of management decisions in the context of climate change.216,217 There is however, still a limited understanding of adaptation measures that might be appropriate and effective.
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Across regions, adaptation activities are widespread though focused in more populated areas. There is a general lack of knowledge in more remote and less populated areas. A lack of knowledge in certain sectors (e.g., water treatment) and a lack of political will are seen as constraining adaptation by some. Improved climate literacy and more integrated planning (e.g., cumulative effects management) are seen as important to enhance mainstreaming.
Activities • • • • • • •
Assessing hydrological impacts Planning at the watershed-level Assessing water quantity risk Assessing source water vulnerability Analyzing cumulative effects of watershed stress Assessing water supply/demand Simulating stream flow responses to climate change
• • • • •
Measuring evaporation and transpiration Evaluating dam/reservoir hydrology in response to climate change Modelling water balance Assessing vulnerability of infrastructure Determining in-stream flow requirements
Products • • • • •
Models of hydroclimatic variability Watershed-level plans Drinking water surveillance programs Water budgets Prioritized list of risks to streamflow
• • •
Impacts assessment guides and protocols Water conservation measures to increase resilience to climate change Collaborative water management groups
2.2.2. Inland flooding and coastal inundation Overview “Inland flooding and coastal inundation” refers to issues associated with excess water leading to elevated water levels or erosion as a result of one or a combination of rapidly melting snowpacks, large rain events, excessive soil moisture, gradual sea level rise, and/or episodic surges due to storm events. In coastal areas, awareness of sea level rise and the related impacts is driven by research projects aimed at assessing coastal flood risk and vulnerability. This heightened awareness is exemplified by innovative projects in Atlantic Canada focused on hazard mapping in Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia,218,219,220 erosion assessments in New Brunswick,221 and vulnerability studies in Newfoundland and Labrador.222 The use of visualization tools is raising awareness and engagement of the public to facilitate responses to sea level rise.223,224 In BC, new coastal development guidelines are helping local governments make land use decisions that are resilient to sea level rise.225,226 Adoption and implementation of these guidelines is in its infancy (e.g., in the Corporation of Delta227), even though many coastal communities remain vulnerable to inundation. Adaptation to inland flooding appears to be less advanced. The majority of efforts are focused on understanding potential impacts and vulnerabilities near populated areas; an understanding of flood hazards in rural and remote areas remains weak. The Prairies, however, are one of the most proactive 31
regions in the country having several projects aimed at developing watershed-scale flood preparedness plans.228,229,230,231 Overall, the issue of flooding remains in the early stages of mainstreaming, with the emphasis of activities being around knowledge generation and impact assessment. An abundance of tools and technologies are greatly improving the baseline level of knowledge. Adaptation measures are mostly focused on nonstructural adaptation (e.g., policies and plans) and the related benefits (e.g., strengthening capacity and knowledge base). There are gaps in sharing knowledge and data across regions. Adaptation measures in the future will increasingly involve difficult choices that seek to balance financial cost and public support when deciding on infrastructure and relocating neighbourhoods at-risk.
Activities • •
• • •
Assessing magnitude and variability of climate extremes Mapping floodplain hazards and risks in response to climate change (e.g. Digital elevation modeling) Assessing impacts on dam design and operations Forecasting / visualizing future flood levels Assessing socio-economic vulnerability
• • • • • •
Planning at the watershed-level Assessing infrastructure vulnerability Communicating risks Partnering on cross-sectoral management Improving access to data and knowledge Updating rainfall Intensity-DurationFrequency (IDF) curves with climate forecasts
• • • •
Flooding databases Watershed-level plans Flooding task forces Resilient construction methods and designs
Products • • • • • •
Flood warning systems Floodplain development guidelines Floodplain regulations and policies Stream channel re-naturalization Risk management plans Flood communications guides
2.2.3. Drought and aridity Overview “Drought and aridity” refers to issues associated with water deficits that can be the result of in-channel low flow conditions, high rates of evapotranspiration, low soil moisture, or a combination of those conditions. Approaches to dealing with drought and aridity are largely reactive and driven by public pressure to respond to extreme drought events. Adaptation activities have been focused on the assessment of impacts and generation of knowledge to better understand circumstances that lead to drought. A significant level of progress has been made through the Drought Research Initiative, sponsored by the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences. In the Okanagan, BC, studies have examined the impact of climate change, 232with new tools233 and models234, 235being piloted to help water managers and water users adapt. The Prairie Provinces (mostly Saskatchewan) have also been proactive in monitoring and 32
assessing the magnitude and variability of climate extremes, as well as developing adaptation programs for managing water during time of drought in the agricultural sector. These efforts are exemplified by studies assessing vulnerability in the North Saskatchewan River,236 Old Wives River,237 and Swift Current Creek238 watersheds, among other locations.239 Many planning processes in the region engage the public240 and have led to various watershed-level drought preparedness plans.241,242 Overall, knowledge on this issue is mostly theoretical and geographically varied with a focus in the southern interior of BC and the Prairie Provinces, with some activity in Ontario.243Proactive investment in additional research, validation, and implementation of methods are needed to enhance mainstreaming.
Activities • • • • • •
Assessing magnitude and variability of climate extremes Determining drought frequency/intensity Downscaling soil aridity models Monitoring soil moisture Analyzing influence of climate oscillation (e.g., PDO, ENSO) Planning at the watershed-level
• • • • •
Researching impacts on snowpack and water supplies Forecasting low water levels and drought conditions Managing irrigation with new technologies and tools Planning for future drought scenarios Monitoring weather events and climate trends
Products • • • •
Water efficient farming practices to increase resilience to climate change Drought preparedness plans Drought communication frameworks Drought resistance crops
• • •
Drought management guidelines Water supply programs Drought watch programs
2.2.4. Groundwater Overview “Groundwater” refers to issues related to the quantity (aquifer levels, rates of recharge / discharge) and quality (contamination or saltwater intrusion) of subsurface water. Overall, there is a limited understanding of the relationship between groundwater resources and climate change; though there tends to be a better understanding of groundwater and potential impacts on inland regions where mapping and modelling is less complex (e.g., Prairies and Ontario),than in areas where a characterization of the resource is more challenging (e.g., the rugged terrain of BC and the Yukon Territory).New mapping tools and modelling approaches are allowing for a better understanding of aquifer levels and rates of recharge / discharge. Several studies in Atlantic Canada are improving the knowledge of the link between sea level rise and saltwater intrusion in aquifers.244,245,246,247 From a planning and policy perspective, groundwater protection is increasingly being incorporated into watershed management.248 As a result, groundwater is being identified and prioritized in climate 33
adaptation plans (e.g., Saanich, BC,249 Barrie, ON,250 Kainai Blood Indian Reserve, AB,251 and the Columbia River Basin, BC252). Beyond source protection, implementation of adaptation measures appears limited. Weaknesses in monitoring and data availability constrain the ability of researchers and managers to accurately detect and forecast the potential impacts of climate change.
Activities • • •
•
•
Mapping groundwater resources Monitoring groundwater Improving state of knowledge with new technologies (e.g. LiDAR and remote sensing) Assessing water budget (groundwater surface water interactions) to improve baseline understanding of rates of recharge / discharge Forecasting low water levels and drought conditions
•
Digitizing and extending groundwater records Evaluating watershed management practices Assessing vulnerabilities of groundwater Integrating groundwater into water monitoring programs Injecting groundwater wells with surface water Decommissioning groundwater wells
• •
Groundwater regulations and legislation Groundwater resource maps
• • • • •
Products • •
Drought and low water response strategies Watershed source protection plans
2.2.5. Water quality Overview “Water quality” refers to issues related to the physical (water temperature, sediments), biological (pathogens) or chemical (nutrients, pollutants) attributes of water. Adaptation activities related to water quality are highly varied across water sectors, but tend to focus on surface water over groundwater. For some municipalities there is a good understanding of the impacts of climate change on the quality of coastal aquifers253,254 and drinking water resources,255 particularly in urban areas.256 There is also a growing understanding of the need to protect municipal drinking water257 in the context of climate change, which includes source water protection,258 though the capacity and political will to integrate climate change remains generally low. In remote watersheds affected by natural resource use, there is a growing recognition / availability of models and approaches for assessing the links among climate change, forests, and water quality,259,260,261 as well as the links among climate change, water quality, and freshwater ecosystems.262,263
Activities • • • 34
Modelling hydroclimatic variability Assessing / managing risk of erosion Preventing contamination
• •
Assessing vulnerability of source water Developing source water protection and response plans
• •
Monitoring water quality Planning at the watershed-level
•
Studying point source pollution and controls
• • •
Water quality indicators Watershed source protection plans Pollution (point / non-point source) control programs Source water protection committees
Products • • • •
Cross-border water management agreements / plans Drinking water protection plans Well (aquifer) protection plans Low impact development to minimize cumulative impacts on water quality
•
2.2.6. Lake levels and ice cover Overview “Lake levels and ice cover” refers to issues pertaining to the height of a lake relative to its shoreline during warmer months, and the extent and timing of ice cover during colder months, as well as ice cover issues related to glaciers, ice caps, and sea ice. These processes have significant influences on the limnology of lakes and hydrology of watersheds throughout the year. Research on this issue has tended to focus on describing historical changes in lake and ice levels, though a few new studies are beginning to assess the impacts of climate change on lake levels264 and sea ice.265Some progress has been made in developing interprovincial and cross-border water management plans for the Great Lakes (e.g., the Upper Great Lakes Study governed by the International Joint Commission266) and other large water bodies in Ontario and Quebec.267 These projects are increasing the capacity of organizations to address impacts on these systems, though knowledge and capacity remains lower for smaller and more remote lakes. In the North, reductions in sea ice and snow pack are expected to have significant impacts on Arctic lifestyles and livelihoods. Case studies268 and climate adaptation planning processes269,270,271 illustrate an increased understanding of the urgency to adapt. Most work to date however, has focused on gathering baseline information and assessing impacts / vulnerabilities as opposed to implementing adaptation. Constraints in capacity are due, in part to the small population sizes, geographic isolation, and expansive areas being affected, which will limit the ability to implement adaptation measures. Adaptation to changes in lake levels and ice cover is seen as lacking focus and has been sporadic. A more strategic approach is needed to gain political support and provide opportunities for outreach to local communities and affected sectors. There is also a need to invest in more detailed models / methods to predict changes in sea ice and snow, and support policies and regulations that will improve adaptive governance in the north.
Activities • • 35
Studying and mapping sea ice thickness in response to climate change Evaluating watershed sensitivity
• •
Assessing impacts of climate change on transportation sector Forecasting low water levels
•
Assessing lake level changes
•
Assessing impacts of climate change on snowpack and glaciers
•
Water conservation measures to increase resilience to climate change Lake water management strategies Watershed-level plans
Products • • •
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Cross-border water management agreements / plans Water quality and quantity indicators Low water response teams and strategies
• •
3.IDENTIFYING STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES TO MOVE FORWARD 3.1. The context for opportunities This section is focused on synthesizing the abundance and breadth of suggestions provided by practitioners at the National Forum that will enable the mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change into Canadian water resource management. The broad policy elements from Figure1 are used to frame the opportunities below (e.g., data, monitoring networks, knowledge, tools, knowledge networks, infrastructure and technology, adaptation measures, awareness, capacity, and investments). These opportunities are intentionally broad and strategic given their need to be: • • • •
Relevant to the breadth of opportunities identified at the National Forum; Grounded in an understanding of the current state of practice described in Section 2; Appropriate across the varying regions, interests, sectors, and issues in water adaptation; and Practical, though not overly prescriptive, given the challenge of anticipating needs across all regions, interests, sectors, and issues in Canada.
As suggested earlier, mainstreaming water adaptation implies a need to integrate the effects of climate change into the norm of existing policy and project level stages of decision making in a way that is iterative, responsive and adaptive over time. Elaborating on a few important keywords in this description clarifies how the notion of mainstreaming is perceived among leaders in the field: •
• •
•
Climate change, and the related loss of stationarity in the hydrologic cycle, means that mainstreaming is not “business as usual.” Although many current water management activities are relevant to mainstreaming, some new activities may be needed (e.g., climate forecasting and downscaling), and existing activities will need to be adjusted to allow for a greater consideration of the effects of future climate. Existing means that mainstreaming should fit within prevailing (as opposed to creating new or isolated) models of governance, institutional frameworks, and decision making processes. Integrated means that mainstreaming should breakdown silos within and among regions, sectors, issues, and interests so there is better coordination, communication, and sharing of water resources, related management activities and adaptation products. Adaptive means that mainstreaming should follow the principles of adaptive management and adaptive governance to implement the philosophy of “learning by doing”, given the large uncertainties in understanding the effects of climate change and effectiveness of the accompanying adaption measures.
As characterized in this report(see Figure 1), mainstreaming is intended to help improve outcomes in water governance, long term resilience to climate change (by increasing adaptive capacity and reducing sensitivity) and water security. The current state of practice does not achieve these outcomes, as one of the most frequently cited comments among practitioners at the National Forum was that the current situation related to water adaptation needs to be less “ad hoc,” “reactive,” and “fragmented;” and more “strategic,” 37
“focused,” and “applied.” Efforts to develop a national strategy around climate change adaptation in water resource management are consistent with the current direction of governments addressing other issues of national significance, including a national energy strategy272, emergency response273, and innovation in health care delivery274. When considering ways to improve mainstreaming, an important reminder is that there exists a number of challenges in water resources management, onto which climate change will pose additional and synergistic pressures. A lack of good governance, which includes the broad range of decision making processes (e.g., political, institutional, administrative) that affect behaviour at an individual, organizational, sectoral, and government levels275 has been related to many of the current challenges. Others have offered analyses and insights to improve water governance to help overcome some of these challenges, which include:276,277,278,279,280,281,282 • • • • • • • • • •
entrenching democratic practices of good governance (e.g., participatory, transparent, responsive, equitable, efficient, effective); devolving decision making authority and accountability to more local levels; enhancing the capacity of local water organizations; using a more holistic (or watershed based) perspective for water governance (e.g., integrating surface water and groundwater, considering the cumulative pressures of land and water uses); recognizing the true value of water; shifting investments from hard (e.g., infrastructure) to soft (e.g., water conservation) solutions; recognizing ecosystem rights to water; improving assessment of the threats to water (e.g., baseline monitoring, water use data, and assessment methods); updating systems for allocating water across users; and avoiding transboundary conflicts over water.
These suggestions further illustrate that there is an existing gap between the current state of practice and more ideal outcomes in water management.283The challenge of mainstreaming adaptation to climate change can seem even more daunting given this existing gap, which will widen if the status quo is maintained and as the impacts of climate change on the hydrologic cycle intensify. However, the urgency to adapt can also be viewed as an opportunity to motivate all involved to close this gap. To do so, it will be important to leverage progress by leading practitioners so others can leapfrog ahead to advance the state of practice and collective level of mainstreaming in Canada. The high-level opportunities described below are intended to facilitate this path forward. They are presented in order from most to least tangible, without a priority order. Though any one of these opportunities, or strategies, can be pursued in isolation, they are intended to be mutually supportive. Successful mainstreaming will require progress on multiple fronts, which is consistent with the notion of resiliency, in particular the need for integration, redundancy, flexibility, and diversity.284
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3.2. Strategic opportunities 3.2.1. Improve the collection, accessibility and integration of data for water adaptation For the purpose of this report, ‘data’ includes climate scenarios, water quantity, water quality and water use information. This information currently serves as an important foundation for the science, decision making and policy related to both water resource management and climate change adaptation. There are, however, gaps in the availability of data across regions (e.g., remote watersheds and northern Canada have less reliable data than urban areas), sectors and issues. Recent investments in climate modelling have led to more downscaling and greater availability of climate scenarios across Canada. These data are not yet available to all users and in many cases the spatial resolution is not adequate for robust decision making. For many years, higher levels of government have held the main responsibility for collecting and disseminating data on water resources, which has allowed for efficiency, improved coordination and consistency across geographic regions. Yet the size and structure of the existing water monitoring network that support collection of these data has weakened. The current state of data to support water adaptation highlights that there is a need to fill data gaps, improve spatial and temporal resolution, strengthen standardization and enhance access for all. These actions would improve the consideration of climate change for all data users. A need for more data is a commonly cited concern among practitioners and is consistent with guidance from the National Roundtable on the Environment and the Economy285 and the United Nations.286 This perceived gap reflects a realistic and valid concern among practitioners, that they feel constrained in providing accurate, evidence-based information to decision makers and policy makers. However, a desire for more data should not be endless. The reality is that decision making will inevitably occur in the absence of perfect knowledge and robust decision making approaches can be used despite uncertainties. Moving forward, water adaptation thus requires improvements to data quality and accessibility, supported by adaptive and responsive approaches to management when data gaps and uncertainties remain. Opportunities related to data acquisition and access can be enabled by focusing on improving the coordination of data collection across regions, sectors, issues and interests, expanding the number and types of points of access for practitioners, and strengthening the link between data collection and the monitoring questions or needs of decision makers.287 On this last point it is important to note that different actors involved in water management will have varying needs for data. These needs will depend largely on the decisions of relevance to a given region, sector, or issue and the capacity to analyse and interpret those data. In particular, needs can be relatively simple (e.g., communicating basic findings to the public or media); complicated (e.g., synthesizing an abundance of disparate data to inform policy making); or complex (e.g., conducting detailed hydroclimatic modelling to inform hydro-power operations and planning).By improving the collection, accessibility and dissemination of data, the public sector will be better able to leverage the capacity of other stakeholders with responsibilities related to preserving water security. The private sector, for example, will benefit from a foundation of information and stable regulatory environment within which to make efficient investments in water adaptation.
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3.2.2. Strengthen existing monitoring networks to support needs in water adaptation A decline in the size and structure of water monitoring networks has been readily noted among end-users across Canada. It has also be noted that existing networks were largely developed to address relatively specific engineering focused issues.288,289,290 The most extensive water monitoring networks are maintained by the federal, provincial and territorial governments, which have some cross-jurisdictional coordination. These networks operate in parallel to monitoring programs of local governments, watershed authorities, academia and private businesses, which serve specific proprietary needs and tend to be less accessible, geographically diverse and coordinated. Furthermore, with increasing concerns about climate change, it has been noted that existing water monitoring networks have been deemed insufficient to characterize water resources and response to climate trends over time. The relevant issues and monitoring questions that serve as a foundation to the design and of a monitoring network are different today than when existing monitoring networks were established. Based on this understanding there is an opportunity for improving integration, filling data gaps, and strengthening the design of existing networks (as opposed to creating new ones). Specific activities to strengthen existing monitoring networks can include prioritizing the issues or questions of most relevance to climate change adaptation; designing a monitoring plan so appropriate variables are measured; and ensuring that sampling programs provide sufficient statistical power for answering the questions of interest at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. The need for strong monitoring networks is supported by the principles on water adaptation from the United Nations,291 and the CCME has been working on guidance to evaluate and strengthen water monitoring networks for climate change adaptation.292 Moreover, strengthening monitoring networks is consistent with guidance from others on how to improve the quality of evidence used in decision making.293,294 Improvements to monitoring networks would benefit those with constrained capacity. Often such individuals and organizations have a need for the data, yet do not have the financial, technical, and human resources to operate such a network. As well, an enhanced monitoring network would, ultimately, strengthen community responses to water events and climate trends by better characterizing how water resource and hydrologic trends are changing over time, evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation measures, and assessing whether financial, social, and natural assets are being allocated appropriately by governments and businesses.
3.2.3. Address most critical gaps in, improve integration of and disseminate existing knowledge within and across water issues and sectors Substantial progress has been made within the past decade to improve the state of knowledge around climate change adaptation, which includes an improved understanding of climate drivers, biophysical impacts, vulnerabilities of communities and ecosystems, as well as strategies for adapting. A review of The Compendium of knowledge and insights from practitioners at the National Forum reveal that the state of knowledge varies across regions, sectors and issues. Jurisdictions with the greatest technical and financial capacity tend to be the most populous watersheds and provinces and have a greater breadth and depth of knowledge than other regions. Likewise, knowledge related to some issues (e.g., streamflow) and sectors (e.g., power generation, municipalities, agriculture, and transportation) is more advanced relative to others. Additional gaps in knowledge include a lack of traditional, indigenous and local knowledge, and a general 40
lack of knowledge about the social and economic impacts of climate change. These gaps highlight that a variety of key uncertainties remain, which will likely constrain decision making and policy making if left unresolved. Efforts among practitioners to fill key gaps and leverage existing strengths in the state of knowledge represent opportunities to improve mainstreaming. A first effort involves addressing the most critical gaps in knowledge, which also requires identifying needs or priorities across regions, sectors, and issues. Though it is beyond the scope of this research to identify specific and critical knowledge gaps, a survey of needs among practitioners,295 or an explicit set of criteria can be helpful for this process. A recent survey in Ontario found knowledge gaps related to using projections of climate change, tools for assessing vulnerability, guidelines for developing an adaptation plan and information on sources of funding for adaptation. Prioritization criteria could be informed by a qualitative consideration of vulnerability,296 specifically the technical and financial capacity among practitioners to generate and disseminate knowledge, the sensitivity of regions, sectors and issues to climate change, as well as the magnitude of exposure to climate stress. Priorities to fill knowledge gaps could then be established for regions, sectors or issues with the greatest capacity, sensitivity to hazards, and exposure to climate stress. A second effort involves improving the integration of knowledge. In particular, others have cited the need to “think like a watershed” as a method for improving the quality of knowledge about the cumulative effects of natural and human disturbances on land and water resources, surface water and groundwater interactions, and water quantity and quality.297 There is also a need for a greater integration across disciplines within the practice of water adaptation (e.g., integrating natural sciences with engineering, social sciences, and economics). By breaking down silos across regions, sectors, and issues, practitioners in one area can learn from the knowledge gained by others.298The challenge of building resilience to extreme weather events and climate trends can thus be viewed as an opportunity for practitioners to deliberately adopt principles and practices of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) since the nature of climate change adaptation requires a holistic and multi-lateral response. Although the state of knowledge is not seen as the most significant barrier to adaptation by some, others believe that efforts to improve the dissemination of knowledge can raise awareness about the importance and urgency of adaptation among less technical audiences, elevate the state of knowledge among practitioners, and improve the quality of decisions by managers and policy makers.
Box 3: • • • • • •
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IWRM Principles
Freshwater is a finite and vulnerable resource, essential to sustain life, development and the environment; Water development and management should be based on a participatory approach, involving users, planners and policy makers at all levels; Women play a central part in the provision, management and safeguarding of water; Water has an economic value in all its competing uses and should be recognized as an economic good; Improving the social and economic value of water; and Integrating the three Es: economic efficiency in water use, equity, and environmental and ecological sustainability.
3.2.4. Validate and expand use of existing tools and develop new tools to address critical needs In recent years a number of tools have been developed to support the interpretation and analyses of data (e.g., quantitative models, decision support tools) or facilitate dialogue and engagement with various audiences (e.g., participatory approaches, visualization tools, communication guides), specifically related to the climate change impacts and adaptation. As highlighted through this research, the available tools serve a variety of specific purposes, including understanding the range of plausible hydroclimatic changes, assessing impacts on water availability and demand, evaluating trade-offs among alternative needs for water and visualizing the effects of climate change on communities. Importantly, these tools vary in the degree to which they can be transposed to new contexts. There also appears to be few examples of formal validation of tools across a range of settings. The performance of a given tool will depend on the specific context of its application (i.e., tools tend to be developed for specific purposes and may perform poorly if used inappropriately).There is also an increasing number of compendia of tools being developed to improve accessibility and awareness of the range of adaptation options available. Though a thorough review of training resources was not explicitly part of this research, there appears to be an increasing recognition of the need to develop and increase the availability of training materials to support the use of tools in climate change adaptation. Moving forward, practitioners can validate and expand the use of existing tools and in some cases develop new ones. To be the most strategic, initial efforts would benefit from a broader discussion among practitioners on the key adaptation priorities. For instance, the most important opportunities for validation may be determined by identifying existing tools with the broadest relevance across regions, sectors, or issues and for which performance is the least known. Efforts to expand the use of existing tools among practitioners would require identifying new locations where they can be applied, raising awareness to demonstrate their merit and functionality (through presentations and dissemination of compendia), and providing training for those with the broadest relevance to help overcome barriers in uptake among new users. In other cases there may be a need for practitioners to develop new tools. As an example, a National Forum hosted by the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy highlighted the need for new forecasting tools to address the challenge of climate change in water management.299If pursued these efforts would better enable practitioners to bring climate considerations into the mainstream of water management.
3.2.5. Formalize, support and expand existing knowledge networks in water adaptation As described earlier, there are a number of existing, established and relevant knowledge networks related to climate change adaptation and water resource management in Canada. These networks serve a variety of mandates which can coarsely be separated into those with a focus on water resources and those with a focus on climate change adaptation. Each network has varying membership, which tend to include practitioners from a range of professions with a technical understanding of the issues related to water and climate (e.g., engineers, hydrologists, planners, ecologists, water purveyors, and natural resource decision makers). Leaders in climate change adaptation and water resource management are known and active among several of these networks, though membership also includes many individuals with less experience and knowledge. These networks are engaged in a range of activities which include conducting research, 42
disseminating knowledge, and hosting meetings for their members to ask questions, share knowledge, generate ideas, and discuss priorities for research and coordination. None of these existing networks are tasked explicitly with facilitating the needs of practitioners to mainstream climate change adaptation in water management across a broad range of geographies, interests, sectors and issues in Canada. Existing knowledge networks are typically characterized as having a strong capacity to facilitate the adoption of new practices or raise awareness of critical issues among practitioners. This attribute is recognized as important for improving water resource management.300 There are however a number of opportunities to enhance the activities of knowledge networks to support the mainstreaming of adaptation. First, none currently have an explicit mandate to support mainstreaming of water adaptation at a national level across all sectors and issues. Second, networks will not be successful if unsupported by a lead organization whose purpose is to facilitate interactions among its membership and encourage integration across traditional ‘silos.’ The CWN, CWRA, the Forum for Leadership on Water and CCaCop are examples of organizations whose mandates are aligned with supporting and strengthening relevant networks of individuals.301 However, in some cases these organizations do not have long term funding to ensure their continued existence. Third, successful mainstreaming will depend on the level at which leaders in water adaptation are transferring knowledge and experience to others in need. Last, as demonstrated by the success of the National Forum, and a desire among practitioners to share knowledge, it is important that networks have the adequate resources to provide opportunities for interactions among their membership, whether through conferences, meetings, or online forums. The benefits of having strong knowledge networks are numerous: they support learning on the successes and failures of others; enable the cross-pollination of ideas across sectors and issues; encourage mentoring; provide a forum to better prioritize; and coordinate activities across disparate organizations.
3.2.6. Strengthen resilience of existing infrastructure to a greater range of extremes and expand use of resilient technologies within and across water issues and sectors Water infrastructure and technologies are fundamental to the health and well-being of Canada. By delivering high quality water for various uses and consumption, removing contaminated wastewater, and reducing hydrologic hazards, water infrastructure supports all aspects of society and the economy. In broad terms, Canada’s physical water infrastructure is currently acknowledged to be in a state of deficit with much of it reaching the end of its lifespan and investments in repair or upgrades not keeping pace with increasing demand to extract, treat, and convey water302.Canada also has one of the highest rates of water consumption in the world, due in part to losses through infrastructure and technological inefficiencies and wasteful use. An undervaluation of water and related infrastructure has been linked to the prevalence of current inefficiencies, a lack of innovation in technology, a deterioration of infrastructure, and allocations to uses with low economic or societal value.303 To date, the design, construction and operation of this infrastructure and technology has predominantly been based on an assumption that the hydrologic cycle fluctuates within an unchanging envelope of variability – that it is stationary. However, increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme events have led to the new reality of a loss in hydrologic stationarity and resultant concerns about the growing “adaptation deficit.” This deficit represents the gap between damages to infrastructure from water-related climate events or shifting demand, and a correspondingly slow rate of investment for improvement. 43
The current situation implies that additional increases in the variability of baseline conditions and increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme events pose a significant threat to existing infrastructure and technology. Resiliency refers to the ability of such systems to respond to a disturbance. Resilient systems are known to inherently show features of diversity, flexibility, and redundancy. A recognition of these challenges has led the United Nations to advise on building resilience through stronger water infrastructure and technology transfer.304,305 Thus, the current deficit in Canada can be viewed as an opportunity for practitioners, managers and policy makers to enhance the resilience of these engineered water systems. To do so the age, efficiency and range of operating conditions need to be updated to account for a loss of stationarity in hydroclimatic conditions. Furthermore, to maximize learning it will also be valuable for practitioners within and across sectors to share lessons about successes and failures in innovation and best practice. Greater resiliency is expected to minimize costs in the long run as catastrophes will have a decreased impact on resilient systems, leading them to recover faster and to a stronger state than prior to these disturbances.
3.2.7. Pilot, monitor and showcase adaptation measures in water resource management Adaptation measures include both structural (hard or engineering oriented) and non-structural (soft or governance oriented) activities that can be implemented to help take advantage of emerging opportunities or reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on the hydrologic cycle. Though some progress has been made in implementing on-the-ground adaptation, at a general level adaptation responses remain in their infancy and constitute one of the biggest gaps in water resource management across regions, sectors and issues. Most examples of current adaptation progress include changes to policies, regulations or management approaches. Fewer examples exist of alternative engineering designs or technologies. Examples of hard adaptation measures can also be difficult to identify because some of these activities might already be considered within the envelope of existing water management practices (e.g., improved water efficiency and conservation technologies) or within the realm of activities to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., improved energy efficiency and conservation technologies).306Although structural and nonstructural adaptation measures differ in their impact on-the-ground, both have had intangible benefits including some of the non-structural products of adaptation such as strengthened capacity, improved knowledge and heightened awareness. Given the importance of adaptation measures for building resiliency and the extent of the gap in implementation, it is important to facilitate a more rapid transition towards implementation of on-the-ground adaptation projects. In particular there is an immediate need to pilot more adaptation measures to advance the state of practice in priority sectors or issues (e.g., strategies for protecting communities from sea level rise, enhancements to municipal stormwater and drinking water systems to accommodate for more intense and frequent storm events). Lessons can be learned from other jurisdictions to help in identifying priority actions to pilot. There is also an important need to monitor these measures as they are implemented. This action would address a current lack of understanding about their effectiveness, cost, and potential benefits. Finally, there is a need to showcase these case studies and successes after they have been implemented so there is greater awareness of the options available to practitioners across sectors and issues. Once further progress has been made, national or regional guidelines can be developed to guide others in pursuing strategies in water adaptation.
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3.2.8. Raise awareness of the importance and urgency of water adaptation among less technical audiences, in particular policy makers and the public Awareness of the importance and urgency of water adaptation tends to vary across regions, sectors, and the roles of individuals. Differences in awareness are believed to be based, in part on the level of connectedness among human activities, weather events, and longer term climate trends (i.e., awareness tends to be higher in regions and sectors that are the most strongly influenced by weather events or climatic trends).There are also those who are aware of the strong link between human activities and climate but, struggle in their awareness of the significance of the problems associated with climate change. For instance, it can be difficult to understand the implications of a 2˚C average increase in air temperature on human activities when the normal variation in winter weather within one week can span 57˚C (from +28 to 29˚C).307 In general, there appears to be a mismatch in awareness among individuals with different roles in mainstreaming, such that awareness tends to be high among technical audiences, operational decision makers and stakeholders, though less among policy makers, elected officials and the public. A lack of awareness among the public and policy makers is seen as a significant barrier to water adaptation because it can contribute to a lack of grassroots support, political will, and understanding about the trade-offs among competing priorities in Canadian society. Raising awareness is therefore an opportunity targeted more towards the public, managers (including businesses), and policy makers, as opposed to practitioners. It is consistent with the views of others that general awareness of climate change needs to be heightened.308 In reaching these audiences, an important message is that climate change will lead to a greater frequency and increasing likelihood of the hydrologic stresses and water hazards that occur today309. Practitioners believe that efforts to raise awareness should target popular media and fit within a strategic marketing campaign that also engages public communication organizations, public interest groups, and non-traditional environmental stakeholders to help communicate core messages. In particular, plain and creative language should be used to showcase Canadian success stories and adaptation case studies (e.g., facts about insurance losses and the related liabilities of water and climate disasters). An increase in awareness would help raise the collective level of climate literacy in Canada, address some of the perceived barriers to adaptation, and even enable some of the specific opportunities described within this report (see points below about raising awareness of business case and investment risks and opportunities).
3.2.9. Identify the most vulnerable groups and build their capacity to adapt Human capacity can be characterized by a range of factors including human, social, natural, physical, and financial capital,310 all of which are critical for mobilizing individuals, organizations, sectors and institutions to improve mainstreaming. In reality there is variation in the level of capacity among practitioners in Canada that can be partly distinguished along boundaries of geography and sectors. For instance, the most populous jurisdictions tend to have the greatest financial and technical capacity, while sectors with climate sensitive goods and services, existing resources, and sophisticated needs have some established capacity (e.g., power generation). Across levels of governments there is baseline strength in institutional capacity related to water governance, yet many still struggle in dealing with existing challenges of water scarcity and conflicts over water allocations, let alone the additional difficulties posed by climate change. Recent investments in activities related to climate change adaptation (e.g., development of knowledge, data, and 45
tools) have led to an abundance of leaders in water adaptation, though there are still many practitioners who are not as advanced and have an important role in mainstreaming. Based on the current disparity in capacity, there is an opportunity to close the gap between leading and lagging regions or sectors. Efforts to strengthen capacity are supported by the principles of IWRM311 and guidance from the United Nations on adaptation to climate change.312 Some key features of organizations with high capacity are that they have an inherent ability to learn, respond to changes in their environment, and are resourceful by being well connected within various networks. Efforts to strengthen capacity should be guided first by identifying practitioners and organizations that are operating in the most vulnerable settings (i.e., those with low adaptive capacity, high sensitivity, and high exposure to climate change). Resources can then be invested to build capacity by involving them in the other opportunities described elsewhere: strengthening the knowledge base, expanding knowledge networks, developing resilient technology and infrastructure and raising awareness. A benefit of enhancing capacity among those who are currently weakest is that practitioners and organizations will have a greater ability to understand, participate, and sustain involvement in all activities related to mainstreaming.
3.2.10. Develop innovative, collaborative and durable funding mechanisms for investments in water adaptation Investments in water adaptation have led to substantial progress as demonstrated by the state of practice described in Section 2.0 of this report. These investments have predominately been from the public sector with private sector investments appearing to be limited to larger organizations or from independent businesses with a greater financial and technical capacity to respond (though some in the private sector are also investing in climate change mitigation).The near-term cost of pursuing climate change adaptation today, given unknown or uncertain future benefits, has been cited as one of the key barriers to action among provincial and municipal governments and businesses.313 This is the case despite evidence that investments today might help offset the substantial costs that climate change, or climate change in tandem with other forcing variables, will impose on public and private interests in the long term.314 Moreover, there is currently a substantial deficit in existing water infrastructure across Canada, which is further exacerbated by an increase in climate-related water disasters315 and the need for additional investments in new infrastructure.316 The combination of recent investments, varied sources of funding, and the current need to emphasize the importance of innovative, collaborative, and durable investments, are all important supports for the mainstreaming of water adaptation. This direction is consistent with guidance on climate change317 and water adaptation318 from the United Nations. Investment decisions are most strongly influenced by managers and policy makers, even though they support all of the above opportunities and the related work of practitioners. Innovative and durable financing mechanisms will be important for these audiences to consider as governments show greater fiscal restraint and greater reluctance to increase sources of revenue through taxation. There is also a potential link with the insurance industry, as investing in adaptation reduces disaster risk. International organizations are likely further ahead in developing innovative financing opportunities to support climate change adaptation: enhanced or new public funding, private sources, or public-private strategies, such as carbon markets, carbon taxes or multilateral funding.319 The Pacific Carbon Trust320 serves as an interesting Canadian example of an independent crown corporation that pools resources across public and private organizations to invest in climate change mitigation projects. At the core of developing innovative financing mechanisms is a parallel need to raise awareness about the adverse 46
implications of climate change on water and the opportunities for investments in water. As well, new financing models need to be supported by a strengthened business case for action and need to provide the financial sector with information and tools to better identify, assess, and manage water-related risks and opportunities.321 An obvious benefit is that this opportunity will allow for different organizations with mutual interests to better pool resources, identify strategic opportunities and allow for economies of scale. There is also evidence that investments in adaptation today can lead to longer term economic benefits by increasing the resilience of a number of sectors in Canada’s economy to the effects of climate change.
4.CLOSING THOUGHTS AND NEXT STEPS This report is one of three phases of a larger project targeted towards practitioners, managers, policy makers, and the public – anyone with an interest in the long term sustainability of Canada’s water resources. The other phases included developing a compendium of knowledge on adaptation to climate change in the water sector and hosting a national forum on climate change adaptation in the water sector. This report is heavily informed by these other phases, guidance from an Advisory Committee of leaders in climate change adaptation from across the country, and a peer review by the Canadian Water Resources Association. It provides a snapshot of current state of practice to identify strategic opportunities that would enable mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change moving forward. This is the only report of its kind to provide a broad characterization of water resource management related to climate change adaptation in Canada. The next steps following from this project are left up to the community of practitioners and stakeholders involved in water resource management. Opportunities exist to train practitioners in the use of climate change and risk-based information, communicate the reality of climate change effectively to the public and policy makers, integrate decision-making and analysis on water resource across sectors and traditional disciplines, and adopt adaptive management frameworks. Collaboration between regions and sectors to prioritize actions locally, and set specific implementable objectives will be a cornerstone of advancing the state of practice in water adaptation. Although the management aspects of water resources are delegated to provinces and local watershed authorities under the current regulatory regime, the challenges posed by climate change necessitate a national effort to support effective adaptation. Lessons on effective adaptation need to be shared, innovative technologies and funding need to be leveraged, and strategic policies that impact or rely on water resources need account for the risk compounded by climate change. All of these elements are influenced by trends that occur at a national scale. With the loss of hydrologic stationarity, the status quo in water resource management is no longer defensible. As individual designs for infrastructure upgrades are implemented, new sources of water are provisioned, and economic decisions that impact water and the environment are made, practitioners need the institutional support to apply principles of adaptive management. Throughout the process of researching adaptation trends nationally, it has become evident that effective adaptation does not require a complete overhaul of water management or governance, but critical and incremental adjustments. Effective adaptation addressing water resources in broad and cross-cutting ways, recognizing that projects and interventions should operate at the intersection of issues, in particular, the water-energy-food nexus. A core challenge that has existed historically in water resource management is the integrating of governance systems to deal with uncertainty and cumulative impacts. This challenge 47
remains in the face of climate change, but can be overcome by investing strategically in conservation and resilient infrastructure to counteract the current deficits in these areas using innovative funding models and technologies. A cornerstone of adaptive management is having the data available to make decisions in a transient fashion. Enhancing data quality and monitoring networks to support adaptive management will thus be central to successful adaptation nationally. Finally, adaptation will only be mainstreamed into water resource management successfully if it is prioritized at all levels within the current governance system, and measures are tailored to local conditions. Given the diversity of landscapes, players and issues in water governance across Canada, an equally diverse array of adaptation strategies will emerge. Evident from this report is the fact that practitioners are willing and able to take adaptation forward – the challenge moving ahead is prioritizing actions and securing support at other levels in the water governance system.
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Adapted from the World Resource Institute (WRI). 2009. The National Adaptive Capacity Framework Key Institutional Functions for a Changing Climate. Pilot Draft. Available from: http://pdf.wri.org/working_papers/NAC_framework_200912.pdf 79
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Activities adapted from Adapted from the World Resource Institute (WRI). 2009. The National Adaptive Capacity Framework Key Institutional Functions for a Changing Climate. Pilot Draft. Available from: http://pdf.wri.org/working_papers/NAC_framework_2009-12.pdf 81
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Populated using compendium of knowledge related to climate change adaptation and water (www.waterandclimate.ca) and results from the National Forum on mainstreaming climate adaptation, Toronto, On, March 22-23, 2012. 83
Outcomes adapted from results from the National Forum on mainstreaming climate adaptation, Toronto, On, March 22-23, 2012
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Outcomes for governments adapted from Morin, A. 2009. “Strengthening Integrated Water Resource Management in Canada. Discussion Paper. Policy Research Initiative (PRI).” Government of Canada. Available from: http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2009/policyresearch/PH4-54-2009E.pdf
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Adaptive capacity based on Smit, B., O. Pilifosova, I. Burton, B. Challenger, S. Huq, R.J.T. Klein, G. Yohe, N. Adger, T. Downing, E. Harvey, S. Kane, M. Parry, M. Skinner, J. Smith and J. Wandel. 2001. “Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity.” In: McCarthy, J.J., O. F. Canziani, N. A. Leary, D. J. Dokken and K. S. White. (editors). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. Sensitivity based on Füssel, H., and R.J.T. Klein. 2006. “Climate change vulnerability assessments: An evolution of conceptual thinking.” Climatic Change. 75: 301–329. Hebb, A., and L. Mortsch. 2007. “Floods: Mapping Vulnerability in the Upper Thames Watershed under a Changing Climate.” CFCAS Project: Assessment of Water Resources Risk and Vulnerability to Changing Climatic Conditions - Project Report XI. 53 pp. Glick, P., B.A. Stein, and N.A. Edelson (editors). 2011. Scanning the Conservation Horizon: A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, D.C.
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Water security based on Norman, E., K. Bakker, C. Cook, G. Dunn and D. Allen. 2010. Water Security: A Primer. Developing a Canadian Water Security Framework as a Tool for Improved Water Governance for Watersheds (2008– 2012), Program on Water Governance: Vancouver, B.C., Canada. Available from: http://www.watergovernance.ca/wpcontent/uploads/2010/04/WaterSecurityPrimer20101.pdf Global Water Partnership. IWRM Pillars. Available from: http://www.gwp.org/The-Challenge/What-is-IWRM/IWRMpillars/ 87
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Brandes, O., T. Maas and E. Reynolds. 2006. Thinking Beyond Pipes and Pumps: Top Ten Ways Communities Can Save Water and Money. University of Victoria, BC. Available from: http://www.polisproject.org/PDFs/ThinkingBeyond_eng_lowres.pdf 164
National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy. 2012. Facing the Elements: Building Business Resilience in a Changing Climate (Advisory Report). Ottawa, ON. Available from: http://nrtee-trnee.ca/wpcontent/uploads/2012/04/cp5-advisory-report.pdf. 165
Dagenais, D. (project lead). 2010. “Implementation of Vegetated Systems of On-site Stormwater Control in the Urban Environment in the Context of Climate Change Adaptation.” Ouranos in partnership with Université de Montréal, École Polytechnique, Jardin botanique de Montréal, Villes de Québec et de Montréal. 1 p. http://www.paysage.umontreal.ca/projet/systemes-vegetalises-de-controle-des-eaux-pluviales 166
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Shah, J.B. (project lead). Climate Change Adaptation Guidelines for Sea Dike Design and Coastal Flood Construction Levels in BC. Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations, Victoria, BC. 1 p. 173
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Government of the Northwest Territories and Government of Canada. 2011. NWT Water Stewardship: A Plan for Action 2011 – 2015. Available from: http://www.enr.gov.nt.ca/_live/documents/content/NWT_Water_Strategy_Action_Plan.pdf 175
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Thompson, R. and L. Reese-Hansen (project leads). 2012. Riparian Areas Regulation (ongoing project). Fraser Basic Council in partnership with Ministry of Environment, Environmental Stewardship Division and D. Tripp Biological Consultants Ltd. Project overview available from: http://www.fraserbasin.bc.ca/programs/bcrac/riparian_areas_regulation.html 180
Reese-Hansen, L. (project lead). 2012. Climate Change Adaptation Protocol for Designating Fisheries Sensitive Watersheds and Temperature Sensitive Streams. Fraser Basin Council in partnership with BC Ministry of Environment, BC Ministry of Forests and Range, Fisheries and Oceans Canada and D. Tripp Biological Consultants Ltd. 1 p. Project overview available from: http://www.fraserbasin.bc.ca/programs/bcrac/fisheries_sensitive_watersheds_2012.html [April 23, 2012].
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BGC Engineering Inc. 2009. Metro Vancouver Climate Change (2050) Adjusted IDF Curves: Metro Vancouver Climate Stations.
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association. Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) Curves (ongoing project). Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association in partnership with Environment Canada, PEI Environment, Energy and Forestry, PEI Agriculture and PEI Transportation and Infrastructure Renewal. Project overview available from: http://atlanticadaptation.ca/pei-idf
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Toronto Region and Conservation Authority. 2012. Mainstream: The National Water Adaptation to Climate Change Forum: Forum Results Report. March 22-23, 2012, Toronto, On. Available from: http://waterandclimate.ca/WP/wpcontent/uploads/2012/05/MainstreamResultsReport_Apr16.pdf 185
Smit, B., O. Pilifosova, I. Burton, B. Challenger, S. Huq, R.J.T. Klein, G. Yohe, N. Adger, T. Downing, E. Harvey, S. Kane, M. Parry, M. Skinner, J. Smith and J. Wandel. 2001. “Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity.” In: McCarthy, J.J., Canziani, O.F., Leary, N.A., Dokken, D.J., White, K.S. (editors). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
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Laxmi, Sushama (project lead). 2011. Assessment of Climate-Change Impacts on Canadian Water Resources Using Regional Climate Model Projections. Université du Québec à Montréal, QC. Project overview available from: http://www.cfcas.org/assessment-of-climate-change-impacts-on-canadian-water-resources-using-regional-climatemodel-projections/ [April 21, 2012].
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Brandes, O. and T. Maas. 2006. “What We Govern and What Governs Us: Developing Sustainability in Canadian Water Management.” A working paper first presented at the Canadian Water Resources Association 59th Annual Conference in in Toronto, Ontario, June 4-7. Available from: http://www.polisproject.org/PDFs/whatwegovern_june06.pdf
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Bakker, K. (editor). 2007. Eau Canada: The future of Canada’s Water. UBC Press. Vancouver, B.C.
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Federation of Canadian Municipalities. 2011. Issues. Environment. Climate Change Adaptation. Available from: http://www.fcm.ca/home/issues/environment/climate-change-adaptation.htm 203
Conference Board of Canada. 2007. Operationalizing Adaptation to Climate Change. Available from: http://www.conferenceboard.ca/e-library/abstract.aspx?did=1902 204
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Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction. 2012. About us. Available from: http://www.iclr.org/aboutus.html
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World Wildlife Fund Canada. 2012. Conservation. Freshwater. Canada’s Rivers at Risk. Available from: http://www.wwf.ca/conservation/freshwater/riversatrisk/ 209
Centre for Indigenous Environmental Resources. 2012. Taking Action on Climate Change. Available from:
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Creed, I., G. Sass, F. Beall, J. Buttle, D. Moore and M. Donnelly. 2011. “Scientific theory, data and techniques for conservation of water resources within a changing forested landscape” - Chapter 6: Virtual ecosystems: using
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hydrological models to understand the past and predict the future of water in forests. Sustainable Forest Management Network, Edmonton, AB. 140 p. Available from: www.ales.ualberta.ca/forestry/Sustainable_Forest_Management.aspx 211
EBNFLO Environmental and AquaResource Inc. 2010. Guide for Assessment of Hydrologic Effects of Climate Change in Ontario. Prepared for The Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Ministry of the Environment in partnership with Credit Valley Conservation. 234 p. Available from: www.waterbudget.ca
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Brissette, F. (project lead). 2010. “A System to Forecast Low Water Levels as a Method to Adapt to Climate Change Impacts (ongoing project).” Ouranos in partnership with École de technologie supérieure, Centre d'expertise hydrique du Québec, Environment Canada, Hydro-Québec, Université de Sherbrooke. 1 p.
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Audet, N. 2012. “Towards Watershed Management: Adaptation to Climate Change in Québec : Overview of the Water Resources Program.” Presentation at the Mainstream: National Water Adaptation to Climate Change Forum Toronto, Ontario – March 22, 2012.
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Nelitz, M., K. Wieckowski, M. Porter, K. Bryan, F. Poulsen and D. Carr. 2010. Evaluating the vulnerability of freshwater fish habitats to climate change and identifying regional adaptation strategies in the Cariboo-Chilcotin. Prepared for Fraser Salmon and Watersheds Program. Available from: http://www.thinksalmon.com/fswp_project/item/addressing_the_vulnerability_of_pacific_salmon_to_effects_of_clim ate_change/ 215
Thompson, R., and L. Reese-Hansen (project leads). 2012. Riparian Areas Regulation (ongoing project). Fraser Basic Council in partnership with Ministry of Environment, Environmental Stewardship Division and D. Tripp Biological Consultants Ltd. Project overview available from: http://www.fraserbasin.bc.ca/programs/bcrac/riparian_areas_regulation.html 216
Nelson, H. Watershed Management Evaluation Tool. University of British Columbia in partnership with Environment Canada, BC Ministry of Forests and Range, City of Williams Lake, and Forum for Research and Extension in Natural Resources. Project overview available from: http://sanjosewatershed.com/about/
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van der Gulik, T. Water Balance Model for British Columbia. BC Ministry of Agriculture and Lands, Victoria, BC. Available from: http://bc.waterbalance.ca/
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association. “Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Hazard Mapping in Prince Edward Island (ongoing project).” Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association in partnership with PEI Environment, Energy and Forestry and PEI Justice and Public Safety. Project overview available from: http://atlanticadaptation.ca/pei-slr-hazardmapping 219
Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association. “Flood Risk Mapping for Community Assessment (ongoing project).” Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association in partnership with PEI Environment, University of New Brunswick, Municipality of Mount Stewart, Municipality of North Rustico, Municipality of Victoria, and Town of Souris and Municipality of Souris West. Project overview available from: http://atlanticadaptation.ca/pei-floodriskcommunities 220
Webster, T., K. McGuigan and C. MacDonald. 2011. Lidar Processing and Flood Risk Mapping for Coastal Areas in the District of Lunenburg, Town and District of Yarmouth, Amherst, Count Cumberland, Wolfville and Windsor. Atlantic Climate Solutions Association in partnership with Nova Scotia Department of the Environment, Nova Scotia Community College and Natural Resources Canada. 130 p.
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association. “Acadian Peninsula Coastal Erosion and Sea Level Rise Project (ongoing project).” Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association in partnership with New Brunswick Environment.
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association. 2012. “Coastal Vulnerability Assessment (ongoing).” Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association in partnership with Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL. Project overview available from: http://atlanticadaptation.ca/node/146
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Sheppard, S. (project lead). Participatory Flood Management Planning in Delta. University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC.
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association. 2012. “Improving the Effectiveness of Climate Change and Adaptation Visualization Techniques Targeted Towards Decision-Makers and Citizens (ongoing project).” Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association in partnership with Dalhousie University School of Planning and Halifax Regional Municipality. Project overview available from: http://atlanticadaptation.ca/node/200
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Ausenco Sandwell Consultants. 2011. Climate Change Adaptation Guidelines for Sea Dikes and Coastal Flood Hazard Land Use: Guidelines for Management of Coastal Flood Hazard Land Use (Project 143111). Prepared for BC Ministry of Environment by Ausenco Sandwell Consultants, South Brisbane, Australia. 45 p. and Shah, J.B. (project lead). Climate Change Adaptation Guidelines for Sea Dike Design and Coastal Flood Construction Levels in BC. Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations, Victoria, BC. 1 p.
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Shah, J.B. (project leader). Coastal Floodplain Mapping Guidelines and Specifications. Fraser Basin Council in partnership with Water Stewardship Division, British Columbia Ministry of Environment, Victoria, BC. Project overview available from: http://www.fraserbasin.bc.ca/programs/bcrac/floodplain_mapping_study_2012.html
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Sheppard, S. (project lead). Participatory Flood Management Planning in Delta. University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC.
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Rowan, K., J. Pittman, V. Wittrock, A. Hershmiller and J. Nielsen. 2011. Drought and Excessive Moisture Preparedness Plan. Assiniboine Watershed Stewardship Association in partnership with Saskatchewan Watershed Authority and Saskatchewan Research Council. 47 p. 229
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Espeseth, D., J. Pittman, V. Wittrock and T. Myers. 2012. Drought and Excessive Moisture Preparedness Plan. Saskatchewan Watershed Authority in partnership with Saskatchewan Research Council and Moose Jaw River Watershed Stewards. 42 p. 231
Prairie Regional Adaptation Collaborative. “Combined Water/Drought/Excessive Moisture Forum: Proceedings (Sept 20-21, 2011).” Prairie Regional Adaptation Collaborative, Regina, SK. 31 p.
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Sears, A.W. (project lead). 2011. Local Government User Guide to the Okanagan Water Supply and Demand Project. Okanagan Basin Water Board, Kelowna, BC. 52 p. Available from: http://www.obwb.ca/wsd/
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van der Gulik, T. and D. Kutney (project leads). Okanagan Irrigation Management Tool. BC Ministry of Agriculture and Lands, Victoria, BC. Available from: www.okim.ca
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van der Gulik, T. Water Balance Model for British Columbia. BC Ministry of Agriculture and Lands, Victoria, BC. Available from: http://bc.waterbalance.ca/
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Tam, S. and T. van der Gulik. 2011. Irrigation Scheduling Factsheet: Agriculture Water Demand Model. BC Ministry of Agriculture, Abbotsford, BC. 6 p. van der Gulik, T., D. Nielsen and R. Fretwell. 2010. Agricultural Water Demand Model: Report for the Okanagan Basin. British Columbia Ministry of Agriculture and Lands, Victoria, BC. 62 p. 236
Thomson, L. 2011. Vulnerabilities & Adaptations to Extreme Climatic Variability: North Saskatchewan River Watershed. Thomson Agri-Environmental, Regina, SK. 23 p.
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Thomson, L. 2011. Vulnerabilities & Adaptations to Extreme Climatic Variability: Old Wives Lake Watershed. Thomson Agri-Environmental, Regina, SK. 25 p. 238
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Wittrock, V., E. Wheaton and E. Siemens. 2011. Drought and Excessive Moisture - Saskatchewan's Nemesis: Characterizations for the Swift Current Creek, North Saskatchewan River, Assiniboine River and Upper Souris River Watersheds. Prepared for Saskatchewan Watershed Authority by Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK. 198 p. Wittrock, V. 2012. Land of Extremes - Saskatchewan Style: Characterizations of Drought and Excessive Moisture in the Milk River, Moose Jaw River, Old Wives Lake and Upper Qu'Appelle River Watersheds. Prepared for Saskatchewan Watershed Authority by Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK. 162 p. 240
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Espeseth, D., J. Pittman, V. Wittrock and T. Myers. 2012. Drought and Excessive Moisture Preparedness Plan. Saskatchewan Watershed Authority in partnership with Saskatchewan Research Council and Moose Jaw River Watershed Stewards. 42 p. 243
EBNFLO Environmental and AquaResource Inc. 2010. Guide for Assessment of Hydrologic Effects of Climate Change in Ontario. Prepared for The Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Ministry of the Environment in partnership with Credit Valley Conservation. 234 p. Available from: www.waterbudget.ca
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association. “Vulnerability of Coastal Aquifers to Seawater Intrusion in Nova Scotia (ongoing project).” Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association in partnership with Saint Francis Xavier University, NS Environment and NS Natural Resources. Project overview available from: http://atlanticadaptation.ca/node/197 245
Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association. 2012. “Saltwater Intrusion Project (ongoing).” Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association in partnership with Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Environment and Conservation. Project overview available from: http://atlanticadaptation.ca/node/161
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Hasen, G. “Identifying and mapping saltwater intrusion and submarine groundwater discharge.” Prepared for PEI Department of Environment, Energy and Forestry by St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, NS. 16 p.
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association. Projet de la Ville de Richibucto concernant l'invasion d'eau salée (ongoing project). Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association in partnership with New Brunswick Department of Environment. Project overview available from: http://atlanticadaptation.ca/node/191 and http://www.gnb.ca/0009/0373/0007/index-e.asp 248
Nelson, H. Watershed Management Evaluation Tool. University of British Columbia in partnership with Environment Canada, BC Ministry of Forests and Range, City of Williams Lake, and Forum for Research and Extension in Natural Resources. Project overview available from: http://sanjosewatershed.com/about/
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Boysen, M. (project lead). 2011. Saanich Climate Change Adaptation Plan. District of Saanich, BC. Overview available from: http://www.fraserbasin.bc.ca/programs/bcrac/saanich_case_study_2012.html
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Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources. 2010. Barrie in a Changing Climate: a Focus on Adaptation (Final Report). Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources at MIRARCO, Laurentian University, Sudbury, ON. 36 p.
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Wittrock, V., S. Kulshreshtha, L. Magzul and E. Wheaton. 2008. Adapting to Impacts of Climatic Extremes: Case Study of the Kainai Blood Indian Reserve, Alberta. Prepared for the Institutional Adaptations to Climate Change Project, Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada's Major Collaborative Research Initiatives by Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK. 108 p. 252
Columbia Basin Trust. 2012. “Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative (ongoing).” Columbia Basin Trust. Project overview available from: http://www.cbt.org/Initiatives/Climate_Change/?Adapting_to_Climate_Change
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association. “Projet de la Ville de Richibucto concernant l'invasion d'eau salée (ongoing project).” Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association in partnership with New Brunswick Department of Environment. Project overview available from: http://atlanticadaptation.ca/node/191 and http://www.gnb.ca/0009/0373/0007/index-e.asp 254
Hasen, G. “Identifying and mapping saltwater intrusion and submarine groundwater discharge.” Prepared for PEI Department of Environment, Energy and Forestry by St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, NS. 16 p. 255
Köster, D., B. Clark and T. Karst-Riddoch. 2009. An Environmental Scan - Climate Change Adaptation Considerations and the Drinking Water Management Division. Prepared for Ministry of the Environment by AECOM Canada Ltd., Bracebridge, ON. 41 p.
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Barrett, S. 2007. Rouge River Watershed: Scenario Modelling and Analysis Report. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, Toronto, ON. 257
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Ontario Ministry of Environment. 2011. “Highlights of the Ontario Regional Adaptation Collaborative Program.” Prepared for A.D. Latornell Conservation Symposium (November 17, 2011). Ontario Ministry of Environment, Toronto Region Conservation Authority (TRCA), and York University. 21 p. Background info available from: http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/media-room/news-release/08a/2011-01/climate-change/1322 259
Creed, I., G. Sass, F. Beall, J. Buttle, D. Moore and M. Donnelly. 2011. “Scientific theory, data and techniques for conservation of water resources within a changing forested landscape - Chapter 6: Virtual ecosystems: using hydrological models to understand the past and predict the future of water in forests.” Sustainable Forest Management Network, Edmonton, AB. 140 p. Available from: www.ales.ualberta.ca/forestry/Sustainable_Forest_Management.aspx
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Beckers, J., B. Smerdon, T. Redding, A. Anderson, R. Pike and A.T. Werner. 2009. “Hydrologic Models for Forest Management Applications: Part 1: Model Selection.” Streamline Watershed Management Bulletin, 13(1):35-44.
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Casey, J. (project lead). Forest Watershed Planning in the Skeena River Basin (ongoing project). Fraser Basin Council in partnership with WWF and Coast Tsimshian Resources. Project overview available from: http://www.fraserbasin.bc.ca/programs/bcrac/forest_watershed_planning_skeena.html 262
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