Mapping the unknown: Predicting the potential ...

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Sep 7, 2015 - The Pallas's cat at its southwestern range limit ... Pallas's cat (Otocolobus manul). S av e m anul.o rg g ... “steps to conserve big cats have the.
Mapping the unknown: The Pallas’s cat at its southwestern range limit

Ehsan M. Moqanaki 07 September 2015 WildCRU

O species, WHERE art thou?!

“Without knowledge of where species are, nothing can be done to plan for their conservation” (Emmons, 1999)

ENSERINK & VOGEL (2006) Science

greenrussia

Pallas’s cat (Otocolobus manul)

“an extreme development of the cat type”

Savemanul.org

(K. A. Satunin)

Wide distribution, but patchy and disjunct?

“Populations in the southwest of its range are diminishing, isolated and sparse” (Ross et al., 2015)

Confirmed Possible IUCN (2015)

Predicating the potential distribution

 67 presence records from Iran  Eco-geographical variables

 MAXENT  Training the model in Iran, projecting to the rest Verified (Iran) Unverified (Outside Iran)

MAXENT

www.unil.ch

Best model: output (preliminary)

* Elevation Ruggedness

Slope Tree cover * Annual Precipitation * Precipitation Seasonality Mean Diurnal Range * Temperature Seasonality

AUC= 0.84

Potential suitable habitat (preliminary)

 Vast suitable habitat in Central Asia?  Potential habitat in the southern Caucasus

© Ali Mohajeran

Preferred prey as a predictor? Afghan pika (Ochotona rufescens)

Pallas’s cat habitat

?

?

Synergies in conservation: the umbrella concept

“steps to conserve big cats have the potential to benefit several species” (Macdonald et al., 2012)

"Imperfect prediction, despite being imperfect, can be valuable for decision-making purposes." Michael Kattan (2002)

© Fariborz Heidari

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