Measuring Democratic Governance: An Emerging Challenge to ...

Measuring Democratic Governance: An Emerging Challenge to Official Statisticians By Virola, Romulo A., De Costo, Severa B. & Villaruel, Mai Lin C. Presented by

Dr. ROMULO A. VIROLA Secretary General National Statistical Coordination Board 3rd OECD World Forum on “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy” on Charting Progress, Building Visions, Improving Life Busan, Korea on 27-30 October 2009

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3rd OECD World Forum RAVirola/27-30/October/2009

Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Outline of Presentation

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I.

Introduction

II.

Some Initiatives on Measuring Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance:

III.

The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies (NSAs) in Measuring Democratic Governance

IV.

Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience

V.

Concluding Remarks/Future Directions



I. Introduction  Democratic governance could provide enabling environment to the realization of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)/1

 The need for statistics and indicators on democratic governance to guide development planners and other stakeholders  Many efforts on measurement of democratic governance outside of NSAs  Challenge to official statisticians is whether and/or how to get involved in the measurement of democratic governance /1United Nations Development Programme. http://www.undp.org/governance/about.htm

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I. Introduction  Pioneering Metagora Project on Measuring Democracy, Human Rights and Governance of OECD-PARIS21  The Metagora intends to develop tools to measure DHRG  Metagora stressed importance of involving NSAs in the measurement of DHRG  Philippines was one of the pilot areas of Metagora

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I. Introduction

In the Philippines: A pilot survey on the rights of indigenous peoples with focus on rights to ancestral domain; implemented by the Commission on Human Rights in cooperation with the National Commission on Indigenous People, the statistical agencies and the research community The project was entitled “Development of a Pilot Survey Methodology for a Diagnosis of Rights of Indigenous Peoples in the Philippines”.

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I. Introduction

Inspired by the Philippine involvement in the Metagora project, the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) continued its efforts to measure democracy, human rights, and governance

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II. Some Initiatives on Measuring Democracy, Human Rights and Governance: International Initiatives a. Human Development Index (HDI) of UNDP

a. Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) of World Economic Forum b. Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) of Transparency International

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II. Some Initiatives on Measuring Democracy, Human Rights and Governance: International Initiatives d. Global-Urban Governance Index (UGI) of UN HABITAT Kenya e. METAGORA – Project on Measuring Democracy, Human Rights and Governance of OECD/PARIS21

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II. Some Initiatives on Measuring Democracy, Human Rights and Governance: International Initiatives  An inventory of sources of governance indicators at the international level has been compiled by the METAGORA/ Paris 21 and the OSLO Governance Center

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II. Some Initiatives on Measuring Democracy, Human Rights and Governance: In the Philippines: a. Human Development Index (HDI) a. Subnational MDGs a. Countryside in Figures (CIF) - Provincial

OECD World Forum 10 3RAVirola/27-30/October/2009 rd


II. Some Initiatives on Measuring Democracy, Human Rights and Governance: In the Philippines: d. Development of a Methodology for a Diagnosis of the Rights of Indigenous Peoples to Ancestral Domains - Metagora Project e. Survey of Users of Governance Indicators f. Good Governance Index- Provincial d. Private Sector initiatives- perception-based surveys



III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance  Mandate: Who is Responsible?  Oversight bodies on democracy, human rights, anti-corruption and governance have no statistical capacity to generate information to inform their decisions

On the other hand, NSAs have no conceptual knowledge of the subject  Whose responsibility is it to measure democratic governance? Who should take the lead role?



III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance  Capability Statistical offices and democratic governance institution need to be capacitated on a sustained and sustainable basis Collaboration and coordination between agencies is desirable



III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Resource Constraints NSAs of developing countries are perennially faced with financial and manpower resource constraints Technical and financial assistance come from development partners, both multilateral and bilateral But, development partners also contribute to the lack of capacity – thru conduct of donordriven statistical activities and hiring of trained NSA staff OECD World Forum 14 3RAVirola/27-30/October/2009 rd


III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance  Involvement of National Statistical Agencies in “controversial”, “noncore” statistical activities

Traditional statistical products: national accounts, prices, employment, health, education, etc. NSAs have apprehensions to get involved in the production and dissemination of data on democracy, human rights and governance But if NSAs do not get involved, and democratic governance is high on the development agenda, won’t we become irrelevant? OECD World Forum 15 3RAVirola/27-30/October/2009 rd


III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Measurement/Dissemination(Communication) Issues

Conceptual Validity/ Acceptability – no universally accepted comprehensive conceptual framework Does the statistical framework measure what is supposed to be measured? Consultation with stakeholders is desirable



III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Measurement/Dissemination(Communication) Issues Choice of Indicators - a statistical framework must be developed to produce numbers that will be useful to policymakers Some Characteristics of Good Indicators  policy relevant  nationally and internationally comparable  combine top-down and bottom-up approaches  supplement quantitative with qualitative data  participatory and transparent  timely data support and can be regularly monitored OECD World Forum 17 3RAVirola/27-30/October/2009 rd


III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Measurement/Dissemination(Communication) Issues To Index or Not to Index ? For policymakers like politicians - good to index, But Indexing has its pitfalls - Sophisticated data users may not need an index.



III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Measurement/Dissemination(Communication) Issues Consistency with Other Initiatives When Figures/Numbers released by international agencies or the private sector do not tally with official statistics, NSAs’ credibility is affected Good metadata disseminated thru the website promotes transparency and enhances public appreciation of the strengths & weaknesses of official statistics.



III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Measurement/Dissemination(Communication) Issues Data Availability/Support to the Indicators Data generally not available Choice of indicators influenced by availability of data with the desired level of disaggregation, frequency and timeliness. Comparability and Availability of Indicators suffer from the differences in levels of statistical development, levels of appreciation of statistics of sectoral agencies of the national statistical system and the different local government units. OECD World Forum 20 3RAVirola/27-30/October/2009 rd


III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Measurement/Dissemination(Communication) Issues Data Availability/Support to the Indicators Some data is better than no data NSAs have to start somewhere



III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Measurement/Dissemination(Communication) Issues Timeline for Dissemination  official statistics in developing countries and even in developed countries are not timely  timeline for dissemination must be carefully calibrated to promote integrity, credibility & objectivity of official statistics Should politically sensitive statistics be released before or after the elections?



III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Measurement/Dissemination(Communication) Issues To Rank or Not to Rank  Ranking countries/provinces/municipalities can falsely misrepresent reality if conceptual and/or statistical framework have flaws  Stakeholders of statistics - the media, local government executives, & others - are fascinated/obsessed with rankings which can raise public appreciation for the statistics generated  Better to rank! OECD World Forum 23 3RAVirola/27-30/October/2009 rd


III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Measurement/Dissemination(Communication) Issues Politicization of the Index/Indicators

 Some statistics like those on poverty, consumer price index, unemployment, the national accounts and democratic governance can attract great public and media attention that contributes to their politicization It may be good – NSAs gain mileage that can translate into improved support for and use of statistics

It may be bad – when methods do not pass examination by recognized experts, the NSA will suffer as an institution OECD World Forum 24 3RAVirola/27-30/October/2009 rd


III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance

Credibility/ Trust and Confidence on the Measure The effectiveness of the NSA is highly dependent on its credibility and the public trust and confidence on its outputs

 If NSA has earned the respect of the public - better for democratic governance indicators to be generated by or thru the NSA than by or thru a subject matter agency.



III. The Challenges to National Statistical Agencies in Measuring Democratic Governance Prioritization of Statistical Activities

NSAs have finite resources Prioritization will always be a factor in deciding whether the NSA should get involved in measuring democratic governance



IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience Measuring Governance of Provinces: THE PROVINCIAL GOOD GOVERNANCE INDEX (GGI) Provincial Good Governance Index aims to provide information on the performance of the local chief executives (governors) Compares GGI at the beginning and at the end of the term of the Governor



IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience PROVINCIAL GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK  Uses the framework developed by NSCB in 1998  Covers 3 aspects of governance • • •


Economic Governance Political Governance Administrative Governance


IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience PROVINCIAL GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK

 Includes 28 indicators for the 3 areas of governance  Includes some MDG indicators  Ranks the provinces  Presented in 2nd OECD World Forum



IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES) During the presentation of the Provincial GGI to the League of Mayors, they suggested that it be extended to municipalities “Towards Informed Decisions of Voters During Elections: Measuring Governance of Local Officials” – Mayors Development Center, Inc. Election Forum, “2007 Elections: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly in the Local Government”, 13 April 2007



IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES)

As of June 2009, the Philippines has  80 provinces  1511 municipalities

No conceptual/statistical framework yet data

Computational Exercise using available



IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES) Data Source: Statement of Income and Expenditure (SIE) from The Philippine Bureau of Local Government and Finance  Amount of Financial Resources at the Disposal of the LGU Executive  How resources are generated and spent, and whether they are spent for development



IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES) SIE shows, among others, which municipalities  are the most/least dependent on the Internal Revenue Allocation (IRA) from the national government;  have the highest/lowest per capita income and per capita expenditure;  spend the most/least per capita on basic social services like education and health



IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES) Results for 2006:  Financial support from the national government accounts for at least 70 percent of the total resources of 84 percent of the municipalities;  Of the total expenditures  Less than 8 percent goes to health  Less than 4 percent goes to education



IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES) Deficit or Savings?  90 % of municipalities reported savings in 2006



IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES)

Gender and Governance In 2006, Female-mayored municipalities represented 16% of all municipalities and they represent

 17 percent of the 30 municipalities with the highest per capita expenditure on education and  27 percent of the 30 municipalities with the highest per capita expenditure on health.  17 percent of the municipalities with the biggest deficits OECD World Forum 36 3RAVirola/27-30/October/2009 rd


IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES) Poverty Statistics and Income  there are a number of municipalities that had relatively big amounts of financial resources, but which did not rank correspondingly well in poverty



IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience

MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES) Election Results in 2007 either ended their term , Indicators

Won

Lost

retired ,did not run for same post or died

Municipalities with the biggest per capita income

21

3

6

Municipalties with the lowest per capita income

20

4

6

22

1

7

21

1

8

20

3

7

20

5

5

17

5

8

going to Health

21

1

8

Municipalities with the Biggest Saving

19

3

8

Most Improved municipalities in per capita income

Municipalities with very low improvement in per capita income based on difference in level Municipalities with biggest share of expenditure allocated to Education Municipalities with the least share of expenditure going to Education Municipalities with the biggest share of expenditure going to Health Municipalities with the least share of expenditure



IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience MEASURING GOVERNANCE OF MUNICIPALITIES (VILLAGES) THE VOTERS’ INDEX •

Aims to measure the “wisdom” of the voters in selecting candidates

•

A “0” or “1” is assigned to municipalities, depending on the results of the election and indicators: If the mayor (or his relative):

Best or Best Performing Municipal

Worst or Worst Performing Municipal

Won

1

0

Lost

0

1

• Voters are not voting “properly”! “Bad performance” not sufficient to be voted out! OECD World Forum 39 3RAVirola/27-30/October/2009 rd


IV. Measuring Democratic Governance at the Local Level: Philippine Experience Table 1. Voter's Index for 2007 Philippine Election Indicators

Voter's Index

N 1

30 municipalities Municipalities with biggest share of expenditure allocated to Education 2006

0.80

25

0.30

23

0.71

24

Health 2006

0.10

21

Municipalities with the Biggest Saving 2006

0.86

22

Municipalities with the Biggest Deficit 2006

0.08

25

Municipalities with the biggest per capita income 2006

0.88

24

Municipalties with the lowest per capita income 2006

0.17

24

0.96

23

0.05

21

Municipalities with the least share of expenditure going to Education 2006 Municipalities with the biggest share of expenditure going to Health 2006 Municipalities with the least share of expenditure going to

Most Improved municipalities in per capita income 2006

Municipalities with least improvement in per capita income 2006 1

Those mayors who have died, retired and those who have completed their three consecutive

terms, hence, not allowed under the Law to run for re-election are not included in the computation unless they ran for another office and won.One limitation, however, was the difficulty in verifying if those mayors from distant municipalities whose term ended ran for another office during the 2007 elections due to lack of information.



V. Concluding Remarks and Future Directions 1. National statistical agencies must get involved in efforts to monitor better the progress of societies and in the measurement of democratic governance 2. Governance indicators are more appropriate at lower levels of administrative disaggregation 3. Methodology needs to be improved 4. The timing and extent of dissemination of the results need to be assessed for maximum but fair impact.



V. Concluding Remarks and Future Directions 5. Advocacy for recognizing good governance has to be strengthened

6. Statistical capacity building not only of producers but also of users of statistics 7. Greater investment in statistics by government and the private sector



Maraming Salamat po! URL: http://www.nscb.gov.ph e-mail: [email protected]



Measuring Democratic Governance: An Emerging Challenge to ...

Measuring Democratic Governance: An Emerging Challenge to ...

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