predict homicide rates across countries. Method. Discussion ... incarceration rate from the best model ... indicators as predictors (see list below) and.
An International Analysis of the Relationship Between Human Development Indicators and Homicide Rates Fiona J. Cunningham, M.Ed., Haruna Nail, B.S., Elizabeth Hallock, B.S., & Kristine M. Jacquin, Ph.D.
Introduction
Method
• The United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) was created 25 years ago to reflect quality of life factors beyond economic growth. • The collection of data on human development allows us to globally examine dynamics and interactions of human development. • The 2013 HDI noted “a small negative correlation between homicide rate and HDI value” (United Nations Development Programme (UNDP, 2013, p.39). • The most recent 2015 HDI report made no comment on the relationship between homicide rates and human development. • The current study examined the relationship between homicide rates and various human development indicators to discover which UN measures of human development best predict homicide rates across countries.
Archival data from 2015 human development data and international crime data from the United Nations Development Programme were analyzed.
Hypotheses • A negative correlation between homicide rates and HDI values will be found. • Inequality adjusted HDI, Gender Development Index, and Gender Inequality will predict homicide rates. • Rates of incarceration will predict homicide rates.
N = 195 countries Regression analysis was conducted with various human development and health indicators as predictors (see list below) and annual homicide rate per 100,000 as the DV.
Discussion
Results • Backward removal was used to determine the best predictors of homicide across countries. • 56 countries were included in the analysis after countries with missing data were removed. • The best model was significant, F(5, 50) = 2.91, p = .02, and accounted for 15% of the variance in homicide rate, adj. R2 = .15.
Predictors: Beta Coefficients of Best Fit Model
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Inequality adjusted HDI (IHDI) Gender Development Index (GDI) Gender Inequality Index (GII) Public health expenditure as percent GDP Physicians per 10,000 Under five mortality rate per 1,000 Percent infants only breastfed 0 to 5 months Percent one year olds lacking DTP immunization Percent one year olds lacking measles immunization Percent under age 5 with stunting from malnutrition Infant mortality rate per 1,000 Maternal mortality ratio deaths per 100,000 live births Adult female mortality per 1,000 Adult male mortality per 1,000 Life expectancy at age 60 Percent HIV prevalence ages 15 to 49 Deaths due to TB per 100,000 Deaths due to malaria per 100,000 Prisoners per 100,000
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 IHDI
Gender Inequality Index
Maternal Mortality
