Deep ties with Quantum Mechanics and variational principles in physics ... We use reinforcement learning (a type of dynamic programming) for the silicon.
Micro Options Project A Calculus of Value based on Ubiquitous Silicon Inspired by Nature by Albert Boulanger & Roger Anderson Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University
Cheap Silicon Everywhere • Very Cheap Silicon will be attached to all manufactured objects. Operational components of an enterprise will have 2 way connectivity to each other and the market all day, every day. • Real Options will be implemented at the micro level -- from the ground up. We call these “organic” micro options
The Big Picture Now ALIEN - RFID 2450 MHz Long Range Backscatter RFID System Alien Technology's long-range, high performance batterypowered backscatter system fills the gap between shortrange passive systems and high-cost active RFID systems. Tags can be read at distances over 30 meters The optional I/O capability enables the tags to accumulate data as a remote sensor, or act as a long-range RFcontrolled actuator.
A Fundamental Calculus for Value Under Uncertainty • We foresee every value-based decision to use this calculus of value under uncertainty -- even a pump can know its real options and its synergies (covariance) with other devices. • The silicon will be there and cheap with ample compute power to implement this at the smallest levels. • Real Options well be extended to Dynamic Real Options – i.e. the silicon will dream up new options. – The dream phase of the adaptive control algorithms uses simulation and genetic algorithms to come up with new options. – Deep ties with Quantum Mechanics and variational principles in physics
• This may sound like fantasy, but it is all very realizable and a large body of work already developed in separate areas. Need to put it all together. We seek help preparing a Demo of the power of Micro Options
Extras
Lamont Energy Research
4D Subsurface Imaging
Columbia Energy Research
Regional & International Expansion
Lean Energy Initiative Int Alternative Energy Program
Electric Grid Threat Simulation Critical mass to make Columbia a player in both Energy & Environment -- Balances the Portfolio Promotes mutual support and inter-relationships by adding an energy systems framework Policy clout in the global energy arena Differentiator is Understanding the System, not separate disconnected parts Creates forum for integrating scientists, engineers, analysts, entrepreneurs, & policy makers Interaction of industry, governments, and academia around Energy & Environmental Systems Solution Jointly Train Future Energy Leaders of the Globe
SIPA SEAS CIESIN
UN Urban Utility Center UCSD /IT3
Lamont Energy Research Lean Energy Initiative -to maximize efficiency for every component of the Integrated Energy System
Transmission Oil Gas Coal CO2 Water Electric Grid Simulation -Alternative Energy Program -4D Imaging & Sequestration Monitoring -to better visualize the movement over time of fluids in the subsurface
to provide credible, neutral energy information to developing countries
to provide load forecasting, operational analysis, and maintenance optimization to the Integrated Grid under Duress
Generation
Real Options Have Deep Connections with Nature • Nature, in its laws, optimize, via a minimization, action. This principle of least action holds true in classical and quantum physics – Quantum physics is governed by the Uncertainty Principle. This nondeterministic rule induces an uncertainty manifold for the principle of least action. – The mathematics of this manifold can be viewed as the same type of problem mathematically as Real Options (Ito Stochastic Calculus and Information Geometry)
• The market is deterministic high dimensional chaos -- time delay dynamics generates high dimensional attractors. “Nondeterministic” QM lives in a infinite dimensional Hilbert space. Hmmm… in the limit – “Spooky Action at a Distance” occurs in markets. Correlations and wormholes in information space -- arbitrage violations
• Stochastic Adaptive Control and Optimization in both cases can use dynamic programming as a solution method. – We use reinforcement learning (a type of dynamic programming) for the silicon – Adaptive control of quantum systems dynamic programming
The Big Picture Now Gillette Buys Half a Billion RFID Tags Gillette announced its intent to purchase 500,000,000 RFID tags from startup Alien Technology. The company expects to introduce RFID tags into its pallets and cases, according to the article. Alien Technology was the first company to introduce an RFID tag with price lower than 10 cents, even though some people claimed it could not be done.
Auto-ID Center - Home - MIT Lab RFID Journal - News Gillette to Purchase 500 Million EPC Tags RFID Journal News Alien Demos World’s First Sub-10-Cent RFID Tag
Alien Technology Fluidic Self Assembly Trailer FSA Trailer
The Big Picture Local 802.11 Wireless Lan Sub Component Models, Fine-grained Real Options
Strategic Planning
Innervation
Learning Loops Distributed Out to the Field
SCADA
Dynamic Business Plan Corporate-Wide Reinforcement Learning Loop with Models
Knowledge Engine (Suitability Matrices)
Real Web Services Options Sensor ML IEEE 1451 Universal Plug n’ Play
Markets
Storage Area Networks Self Historians
Resource Allocation
Practicum Capture History Matching Teaching & Learning Initialization Loop
Diagnostic “Critic” System
Advisory System
Human in the Personalized Loop Dashboards & Shared Decision Viz Rooms
Scalable: Motors, Factories, Business Units, Enterprise
The Big Picture Now SignalQuest provides sensors for tilt, motion, angle, vibration, shock, temperature and humidity for wireless devices
SignalQuest is a leading developer of embedded microsensors. We offer a diverse product line of sensors that measure acceleration, tilt, shock, vibration, humidity, and temperature as well as complete solutions for asset monitoring, power management, and personal safety.
The Big Picture Now Microsoft Smart Personal Objects Technology (SPOT) Smart Personal Objects Technology will make everyday objects such as wristwatches, alarm clocks, and key chains, better at what they do. These information delivery devices will be able to provide high-value, personalized information that is time, location and context relevant. Smart wristwatches, the first devices in the category, are scheduled to be available in fall of 2003.
Microsoft, along with key partners in the FM broadcasting industry, has created the DirectBand Network a unique, continuous broadcast network across the US and Canada.
Body of Work on the Web
Ito Stochastic Calculus in Finance • • •
STATIC AND DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION MODELS IN AGRICULTURE Stochastic Optimal Control HUBerlin,Stochastics-Mathematical Finance,Delay-SDDE
Quantum Connections • • •
Ito's formula is the chain rule with Wick ordering, by R. L. Hudson and R. F. Streater. Ito calculus, stochastic integrals. QUANTUM FILTERING, CONTROL, PROGRAMMING, COMPUTATIONS QUANTUM CHAOS, ITO ALGEBRAS AND NOISE CALCULUS
Information Geometry • • • • •
Classical and Quantum Information Geometry Information Geometric Measurements of Generalisation - Zhu, Rohwer (ResearchIndex) Information Geometry of Neural Networks --- New Bayesian Duality Theory --- (ResearchIndex) Information Geometry on Hierarchical Decomposition of Stochastic Interactions - Amari (ResearchIndex) Information Geometry, Bayesian Inference, Ideal Estimates and Error Decomposition (ResearchIndex)
