Mutual Fund Review - ICICI Direct

Mutual Fund Review

November 19, 2009 | Mutual Fund

September 19, 2016

Mutual Fund Review

Mutual Fund Review Equity Markets .................................................................................................... 2 Debt Markets....................................................................................................... 3 MF industry synopsis .......................................................................................... 4 MF Category Analysis ......................................................................................... 5 Equity funds..................................................................................................... 5 Equity diversified funds ...................................................................................... 6 Equity Infrastructure fund................................................................................... 7 Equity Banking Funds ......................................................................................... 7 Equity FMCG ...................................................................................................... 7 Equity pharma funds ........................................................................................... 8 Equity Technology Funds .................................................................................... 8 Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) ......................................................................... 9 Balanced funds ............................................................................................. 10 Monthly Income Plans (MIP) ........................................................................ 11 Arbitrage Funds............................................................................................. 11 Debt funds ..................................................................................................... 12 Liquid Funds 13 Income funds .................................................................................................... 14 Gilt Funds 15 Gold: Not attractive from an absolute return perspective ................................ 16 Model Portfolios ................................................................................................ 17 Equity funds model portfolio ......................................................................... 17 Debt funds model portfolio ............................................................................ 18 Top Picks ........................................................................................................... 19

Note: Whenever, returns for the scheme are shown in the report, they are for the growth option of the scheme.

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research

Equity Markets Update

Nifty 50: Markets continue to hover around highs 10500



Indian benchmark indices have been consolidating after touching alltime high levels in the first week of August. However, broader markets continued their upward trajectory as midcaps and small caps continued to outperform large caps



The market has undergone a round of healthy corrective consolidation in August 2017. It has displayed resilience in the face of turbulent global cues and absorbed a range of adverse events like rising geopolitical tensions and FII outflows



The recent quarter was subdued with Sensex companies reporting a tepid Q1FY18 primarily depicting the transition period towards GST. Majority of the companies witnessed muted business activity amid destocking of channel inventory and emerging clarity on input tax credits. Going forward, with a smooth transition by domestic businesses to GST amid greater emphasis over NPA resolution for the Indian banking system and a pick-up in infra activity, we revise our Sensex EPS estimates in FY17-19E. We expect robust earnings recovery for Sensex companies and pencil in a double digit earnings CAGR of 15.7% in FY17-19E



GDP for Q1FY18 came in at a weak 5.7% vs 6.1% last quarter. The economy is passing through a period of sluggishness as it faced two jolts back-to-back, first demonetisation and now GST. Business sentiments remain robust, however, and output should normalise once the system stabilises over the next few months

10000 9500

9000 8500 8000

Sep-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Jun-17

May-17

Apr-17

Feb-17 Mar-17

Jan-17

Dec-16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Sep-16

7500

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Sensex

BSE 100

BSE 500

BSE 200

1.8

3.5

3.8

4.2

6.1 BSE Midcap

BSE Small cap

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

7.9

Broader indices outperform over the last month

Outlook

Source: Bloomberg One month returns till September 14, 2017



We reiterate our positive stance and conclude that the current corrective phase forms part of the larger degree uptrend. Going forward, we expect the index to conclude the ongoing secondary consolidation and resume its primary uptrend to challenge its recent life-time high of 10137 in coming months. Hence, it presents an incremental opportunity with favourable risk/reward to enter quality stocks in a staggered manner to ride the next up move within the larger degree uptrend



Our positive stance on equity continues to backed by expectations of a pick-up in earnings and continuity of fund flows. Subdued earnings, over the last four years, have led index valuations to inch up. However, we believe the impact of one-offs like demonetisation & GST on corporate earnings will go through in the first half of FY18. From the second half onwards, earnings growth may accelerate



However, given the sharp rally in recent months, it is better to avoid lumpsum investment and continue with the staggered buying approach

4

3

Auto

Banking

IT-2

4 FMCG

5 Healthcare

4

5 CG

Oil n Gas

6 Real Estate

Metals

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4

Unprecedented inflows into equity markets in domestic mutual funds and increased equity allocation from EPFO and rising NPS corpus is proving ample liquidity to the markets and are driving factors behind the recent rally. The outlook for liquidity remains strong

10

Metals and Real estate stocks see buying while Technology stocks lag



Source: Bloomberg One month returns till September 14, 2017

Research Analyst Sachin Jain [email protected] Jaimin Desai [email protected]


Page 2

Debt Markets

G-sec yields rise marginally in days following August CPI reading

Update

7.5



Fixed income markets have been in a range during August with yields across government securities and corporate bonds trading in a narrow range. Benchmark 10 year G-sec yields hovered around 6.5% while corporate bonds of three, five years maturity traded at ~7.1%, 7.3%, respectively



CPI inflation for August jumped to 3.36% YoY from the previous month’s 2.36% YoY reading. Food inflation contributed heavily to the rise in headline inflation, growing on a yearly as well as sequential basis. The headline CPI inflation is averaging ~2.50%, thus far in FY18 and is well within RBI’s projected band of 2.00-3.50% for H1FY18. Barring major negative surprises in the core print and with continued support from cereals (base effect and higher production) and pulses (good harvest), the target is likely to be comfortably met



Globally, concerns over a rise in sovereign yields have subsided with inflation panning out lower-than-expected. US 10 year G-sec yield has drifted down slowly by more than 20 bps to 2.1% from 2.3%. Subdued global sovereign yields along with a stable currency are attracting foreign inflows into the Indian market



FIIs have already exhausted their debt investment limit in both government securities and corporate bonds indicating their positive stance on bond yields

7.0 6.5 6.0

Sep-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Jun-17

Apr-17

May-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Jan-17

Dec-16

Nov-16

Oct-16

Sep-16

5.5

Source: Bloomberg

Yield (%)

G-sec yield curve: Yields steepen for long maturity 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0

6.56 6.34

6.25

6.50

6.52

6.34

6.24 1yr

6.52

3yr

5yr

12-Sep-17

10yr

14-Aug-17

Outlook



RBI is expected to maintain status quo on benchmark policy rates in its October 2017 policy meeting. The central bank is likely to wait to see the impact of GST and impact of erratic monsoons on food grain production. Although RBI’s medium term target is likely to be achieved, market participants are likely to take cues from its guidance and outlook



The India debt market is almost at the end of the interest rate cycle, which started in January 2015 with repo rate at 8%. RBI has since then cut benchmark rates by 200 bps. The 10 year G-sec has corrected from 9.1% in April 2014 to 6.45% currently. Therefore, room for further downside remains narrow



System liquidity continues to remain in surplus leading to persistent lower yields at the shorter end of the yield curve. With bank credit growth remaining subdued, we expect rates to remain low in near term



G-sec funds or duration funds should be avoided. Credit opportunities funds with stable asset quality offer the best investment opportunity in the current market environment


AAA corporate bond yield curve steepens across most maturities 8.0

Yield (%)

7.6 7.2 6.8

7.33 6.97 6.81

7.63 7.60

7.13

7.11

7.30

6.4 1yr

3yr 12-Sep-17

5yr

10 yr

14-Aug-17



Page 3

MF industry synopsis Record inflows into mutual funds in the last three years have led to a robust increase in overall assets managed by them. Total assets managed by mutual funds touched a record high of | 20.59 lakh crore in August 2017, up ~3.12% from July 2017 level of | 19.97 lakh crore. This represented a ~31.74% increase YoY and an ~17.4% increase from March 2017. Of the total MF corpus, ~42% was held by income funds and ~31% by equity and ELSS funds According to Amfi data, inflows through systematic investment plans (SIPs) for August were at ~| 5200 crore, up from ~| 4950 crore in the previous month. SIP inflows averaged ~ | 3600 crore/month in FY17 In the trailing 12 months, the mutual fund industry saw a net inflow of | 3.07 lakh crore. Out of the total net inflow, | 99441 crore came into equity and ELSS funds, about 32% Despite volatility in equity markets, inflows in equity mutual funds have remained steady. August saw a net inflow of ~| 28023 crore in equity and equity-oriented funds, which is a multi-year high. This trend reflects the increasing participation of investors in mutual funds and using correction as an opportunity to deploy capital

150000

1400000

100000

1200000

73,691

200000

1600000

80,526

250000

1800000

96,008

300000

2000000

111,758

350000

154,620

2200000

Exhibit 2: AUM of Top 10 AMCs

189,766

Exhibit 1: Boosted by strong inflows into income and equity schemes, August saw |61701 crore net inflow

229,233



235,664



271,258



283,523



50000 Aug-17

Jul-17

Jun-17

May-17

Apr-17

Mar-17

Feb-17

Jan-17

Dec-16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Sep-16

Aug-16

1000000

AUM

Total AUM

Source: ACE MF

Debt%

Others%

Source: ACE MF. Data as on August 2017


GILT

GOLD ETFs

Equity %

27%

FY16

ELSS - EQUITY

0%

58000 52000 46000 40000 34000 28000 22000 16000 10000 4000 -2000

OTHER ETFs

20%

28%

31%

31%

32%

34%

40%

40%

40%

45%

60%

48%

80%

Exhibit 4: Within retail category, equity funds witness significant inflows in FY17…

BALANCED

Exhibit 3: Fraklin Templeton has highest proportion of equity AUM as percentage of its AUM

EQUITY

Source: AMFI

Source: ACE MF. Data as on March 2017

Page 4

MF Category Analysis Equity funds 

Banking funds slipped slightly among sectoral/thematic funds as infrastructure funds emerged as the best performing category of equity funds. These categories as well as FMCG funds continued to outperform information technology (IT) and pharma funds by wide margins. Pharma funds were in the red to the tune of ~13%



In terms of market cap-based funds, midcap funds continued their dominance over large cap funds. Overall, midcap funds were among the best performing equity fund categories on a one year basis



Structural industry-wide problems continue to plague pharma and technology funds. Pharma stocks delivered a severely disappointing Q1FY18 amid persistent pressure over pricing, compliance issues and a fear of shrinking growth in the large US market. H1B visa issues and US government action fears persisted on overhangs over technology stocks and consequently, technology funds

14.9

9.6

FMCG

-13.1

2.6

4.8 3.1

Multi cap

17.0 10.9 16.0

17.4 14.6 15.7

22.8 17.9 26.0

24.0 14.6 16.8

13.3 17.3

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20

18.9 13.0 18.8

Returns (%)

Reshuffling of portfolio was seen post Union Budget with beaten down sectors rallying sharply outperforming defensive sectors

26.5

Exhibit 5: Banking funds outperform other categories while technology, pharma funds continue to be under pressure (returns as on September 15, 2017)

Infrastructure Banking

Mid cap

1 year

3 Year

Large Cap Technology

Pharma

5 year

S

Source: Crisil, ICICIdirect.com Research ; Returns over one year are compounded annualised returns

Exhibit 6: Strong flows continue into equity and ELSS schemes

Exhibit 7: Robust inflow in equity funds pushes up AUM to record high of | 6.4 lakh crore

22000

700000

18000

650000

16000

600000

14000 12000

| lakh Crore

10000 8000 6000 4000

550000

500000 450000 400000

Equity + ELSS

Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research


Equity +ELSS


Page 5

Aug-17

Jul-17

Jun-17

May-17

Apr-17

Mar-17

Feb-17

Jan-17

Dec-16

Nov-16

350000

Oct-16

Aug-17

Jul-17

Jun-17

May-17

Apr-17

Mar-17

Feb-17

Jan-17

Dec-16

Nov-16

Oct-16

Sep-16

Aug-16

0

Sep-16

2000

Aug-16

Net Inflow ( | Cr )

20000

View Short term: Positive Long-term: Positive

Equity diversified funds 

Equity diversified funds have witnessed robust growth over the last three years, with AUM within each sub-category rising substantially. In the last three years in FY14-17, the AUM of large cap funds rose 138%, multi cap funds AUM rose 109% and mid cap funds AUM rose 235%



Over this period, while all three sub-categories have delivered a strong performance (Exhibit 8), midcap funds have done exceedingly well and outperformed. This is reflected in the trend of broader indices outperforming bellwether indices over this time frame. However, large cap funds have reversed that trend at some points during the past few months



Multicap funds are relatively more market cap agnostic and hold positions in a wider range of companies than pure large cap funds or pure midcap/small cap funds. Multicap funds generally hold around 5060% of their portfolio in large cap stocks and 30-40% in midcap stocks. They have benefited by capturing a part of the midcap rally during this period and, thus, outperformed pure large cap funds



In the present market scenario, bottom up stock picking across the market segment is more important than allocation to a particular segment or sub sector. Multicap funds offer fund managers flexibility to allocate funds across all market segment and are, therefore, relatively better placed

| crs

Exhibit 8: Robust AUM growth across all equity diversified fund sub-categories from 2014

200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0

Large Caps

Multi Caps

Mid Caps

Source: ACE MF

Recommended funds

Large cap  Birla Sunlife Frontline Equity  ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity  SBI Bluechip Fund Multi cap  Franklin India Prima Plus Fund  Kotak Select Focus Fund Midcap  HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund  Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund

(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)


Page 6

Equity Infrastructure Funds View Short-term: Positive Long-term: Positive



Government spending and focused push towards sectors such as roads, railways, housing and power could lead to greater opportunities to infrastructure players, apart from the benefit of increased transparency in the system



A number of infrastructure related government schemes and the introduction of new regulatory measures are expected to help organised players in the infrastructure space over the medium to long term, placing infrastructure and ancillary stocks on an attractive footing

Preferred Picks

   View Short-term: Positive Long-term: Positive

Aditya Birla SL Infrastructure Fund L&T Infrastructure Fund Reliance Diversified Power Sector Fund

Refer www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund

Equity Banking Funds 

Q1FY18 results showed that operating earnings increased decently. However, there was no respite from asset quality concerns especially for PSU banks. Of late, enhanced credit quality concerns and related haircuts and credit costs apart from slower credit growth have put the sector under some stress. However, increase in gross NPA of private sector banks in absolute terms was lower than previous quarters, giving some respite with further support expected from treasury gains and sale of non-core assets



We remain optimistic on the banking sector keeping in mind the anticipated pick-up in credit offtake. Steady margins and peaking out of the NPA cycle is expected to further aid profitability



From a long term point of view, the continued government push on financial inclusion is structurally positive for the financial industry. Demonetisation-led reduction in the black economy, enhanced awareness and increased usage of digital or electronic payments will be positives for the banking industry from an operating cost perspective

Preferred Picks

  

ICICI Prudential Banking & Financial Services Reliance Banking Fund UTI Banking Sector Fund

Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund

Equity FMCG Funds View Short-term: Positive Long-term: Positive

Several companies from the consumer-oriented and FMCG space witnessed GST led destocking impact in Q1FY18. This came on the back of an improvement due to receding demonetisation-led disruption. Many companies had reported decent earnings growth with an improvement in margins and sequential improvement in volume growth in Q4FY17



We maintain our positive outlook on the FMCG sector backed by the rural consumption revival led by largely normal monsoons and the government’s focus on increasing farm incomes. We also expect GST implementation to eventually provide a big boost to FMCG companies, particularly those present in personal care and household categories



Preferred Picks

 


ICICI Prudential FMCG Fund SBI FMCG Fund

Refer www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund

Page 7

Equity Pharma funds View Short-term: Neutral Long-term: Positive



Q1FY18 was quite poor for pharmaceutical companies on the back of concerns such as destocking necessitated by GST implementation, higher-than-expected price pressure in the US generic space, high base effect and rupee appreciation. Leading players in the US market continue to face threats from price erosion borne out of intense competition and client consolidation. Besides, other issues in the US like pricing probe by the Department of Justice, adapting to the bidding process and imposition of border tax on imported drugs are other near term overhangs. An additional headwind for the sector has emerged in the form of channel disturbances due to GST implementation. Pharma being a largely export-oriented sector, faces additional pressure from emergence of a stronger rupee



However, despite these apprehensions, in the long term, we remain optimistic about the sector’s prospects on the back of attractive valuations and earnings momentum pick-up led by incremental product launches in the US besides normalising Indian formulations growth

Preferred Picks

  

Reliance Pharma Fund SBI Pharma Fund UTI-Pharma & Healthcare


Equity Technology Funds View Short-term: Neutral Long-term: Neutral



Technology companies report muted results as expected. Subdued corporate results demonstrate the pain in the technology sector. Future expectations would be centred around management guidance. In the short-term, persistent rupee strength, wage hikes and visa costs would continue to weigh on the sector



We maintain our neutral stance on the sector as the industry faces challenges related to US immigration rules and growing protectionism around the world leading to marginal IT spending by companies. The industry would continue to witness pricing pressure in its traditional business, which is currently unable to offset newer revenue streams from digital areas that enjoys higher margins

Preferred Picks

 


ICICI Prudential Technology Fund DSPBR Technology fund


Page 8

Exchange Traded Funds (ETF)



An equity index ETF tracks a particular equity index such as the BSE Sensex, NSE Nifty, Nifty Junior, etc



An equity index ETF scores higher than index funds on several grounds. The expense of investing in ETFs is relatively less by 0.50-0.75% in comparison to an index fund. The expense ratio for equity ETFs is in the range of 0.05-0.25% while for index funds the expense ratio varies in the range of 0.50-1.25%. However, brokerage (which varies) is applicable on ETFs while there are no entry loads now on index funds



Tracking error, which explains extent of deviation of returns from the underlying index, is usually low in ETFs as it tracks the equity index on a real time basis whereas it is done only once in a day for index funds



ETFs also provide liquidity as they are traded on stock exchanges and investors may subscribe or redeem them even on an intra-day basis. This is unavailable in index funds, which are subscribed/redeemed only on a closing NAV basis



In August 2015, the Labour Ministry decided to invest 5% of Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation’s (EPFO) incremental corpus in ETFs. The investment in equities is split between the Nifty ETF (75%) and Sensex ETFs 25%. EPFO chose two ETF schemes of SBI Mutual Fund—SBI ETF Nifty and SBI Sensex ETF



In 2016 the EPFO hiked the limit from 5% to 10% of its incremental corpus of investment in equities, which was further increased to 15% of its incremental corpus in May 2017. This is a positive move since retirement savings, which are long term in nature, will be invested in equities that have the potential to generate higher returns. So far, EPFO has invested a total of ~| 22,000 crore in exchange traded funds as of April 2017



Over 400 ETFs are traded globally. ETFs are transparent and cost efficient. The decision on which ETF to buy should be largely governed by the decision on getting exposure to that asset class

53734 Aug-17

48359 Jun-17

52823

47584 May-17

Jul-17

45899 Apr-17

40147

44436

25211 Nov-16

Mar-17

23943 Oct-16

30000

22740

40000

Sep-16

50000

28834

60000

37412

Exhibit 10: …leading to consistent increase in AUM

21698

20000

10000 Feb-17

Jan-17

0 Dec-16

8000 6748 7000 6000 4349 5000 3599 4000 2830 1866 3000 1753 1533 1365 1513 2000 13851190 930 7661009 892 940 584 456 387 1000 71 0 -1000 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17

Net Inflow ( | Cr )

Exhibit 9: Sensex/Nifty ETFs receiving consistently higher inflows…

Aug-16

Tracking error, though it should be considered, is not the deciding factor as variation among funds is not huge...

In India, three kinds of ETFs are available: Equity index ETFs, liquid ETFs and gold ETFs

| Crore

Traded volumes should be the major criterion that is used while deciding on investment in ETFs. Higher volumes ensure lower spread and better pricing to investors...



Other ETFs

Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research


Page 9

Balanced funds View Short-term: Positive Long-term: Positive

Balanced funds category continued to receive significant flows, with the average monthly inflow (net) for 12 months to August 2017 amounting to ~ | 5600 crore The AUM of balanced funds has witnessed a stellar increase during this period, more than doubling to | 128320 crore in August 2017 from | 53881 crore in the year ago period Over the last two or three years, the balanced space has emerged as one of the fastest growing equity categories and offers an ideal gateway for first time retail equity investors. In FY17, balanced funds AUM growth outpaced all other categories bar non-gold ETFs Balanced funds are hybrid funds. More than 65% of the overall portfolio is invested in equities. Hence, as per provisions of the Income Tax Act, 1961, any capital gains over a year become tax free. Also, dividends declared by funds are tax free in the hands of the investor In case one separately invests 35% of one’s investible corpus in a debt fund, the same will be subject to higher taxation. However, if the whole corpus is invested in balanced funds, 100% shall have lower taxation applicable as mentioned above. Thus, balanced funds offer the benefit of equity taxation on debt component After a sharp rally in equity markets, the funds can be a preferred investment avenue as the debt proportion serves to protect on intermediate relief rallies or the downturn while providing minimum 65% participation on further upsides









 Investors with a limited investible surplus and a lower risk appetite but with a willingness to invest in equities can look to invest in these funds



128320

121243 Jul-17

Aug-17

102156

109513 Jun-17

77126 Feb-17

May-17

71021 Jan-17

93530

64954 Dec-16

84763

62907 Nov-16

Apr-17

61107 Oct-16

Mar-17

56816 Sep-16

153000 133000 113000 93000 73000 53000 33000 13000

Aug-17

Jun-17

Apr-17

Feb-17

Dec-16

Oct-16

Aug-16

Jun-16

Apr-16

Feb-16

Dec-15

Oct-15

Aug-15

| Crore

Net Inflow ( | Cr )

10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

53881

Exhibit 12: YoY 138% growth in AUM of balanced funds

Aug-16

Exhibit 11: Strong inflow into balanced funds

Balanced



Preferred Picks



ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund



HDFC Balanced Fund



Birla Sun Life Balanced 95 Fund



DSP Blackrock Balanced Fund



L&T India Prudence Fund



Page 10

Monthly Income Plans (MIP) View Short-term: Neutral Long-term: Positive

MIP should be a preferred debt investment for funds that need to be parked for over two years



 

An MIP offers investors an option to invest in debt with some participation in equity, ~10-25% of the portfolio. They are suitable for investors who seek higher returns from a debt portfolio and are comfortable taking nominal risk. The debt corpus of the portfolio provides regular income while the equity portion of the fund provides alpha. However, returns can also get eroded by a fall in equities MIPs can be classified into aggressive MIP and conservative MIP based on its equity allocation. Risk averse investors should invest in MIPs with lower equity allocation to avoid capital erosion The change in taxation announced in the Union Budget 2014, shall be applicable to MIP funds (refer to debt funds section for details)

Preferred Picks



Aditya Birla Sun Life MIP II - Wealth 25 Plan



ICICI Prudential MIP 25



SBI Magnum MIP Fund



SBI Magnum MIP Floater Fund

(Refer www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)

Arbitrage Funds View Short-term: Neutral Long-term: Neutral



Arbitrage funds seek to exploit market inefficiencies that get manifested as mispricing in the cash (stock) and derivative markets



Availability of arbitrage positions depends very much on the market scenario. A directional movement in the broader index attracts speculators in the market while cost of funding makes futures positions biased



Arbitrage funds are classified as equity funds as they invest into equity share and equity derivative instruments. Since these are classified as equity funds for taxation, dividends declared by the funds are tax free. No capital gains tax will be applicable if they are sold after a year



These funds can be looked upon as an alternative to liquid funds. However, for these funds, returns totally depend on arbitrage opportunities available at a particular point of time and investors should consider reviewing the same before investing. Returns of arbitrage funds are non-linear and, therefore, unsuitable for investors who want consistent return across time period



Arbitrage funds should be used as a liquid investment and should not be a major part of the investor’s portfolio. A range bound market does not give ample room to create arbitrage positions

Preferred Picks



ICICI Prudential Equity - Arbitrage Fund – Regular



IDFC Arbitrage Fund - (Regular)



Kotak Equity Arbitrage Fund



SBI Arbitrage Opportunities Fund



Page 11

Debt funds Exhibit 13: Category average returns

8.1

7.4

9.8

8.8

8.4 7.3

6.3

7.8

7.8

6.3

6.0 3.1

%

8.0

7.6

10.0

10.1

8.8

12.0

Benchmark 10 year G-Sec has witnessed yields softening by ~45-50 bps since the end of April

10.5

14.0

4.0 2.0 0.0

6 months

1 year

Gilt Funds

Income LT

Income ST

3year

Income UST

Liquid

Source: ACE MF, ICICIdirect.com Research Note : Returns as on September 15, 2017; All returns are compounded annualised

6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0

Exhibit 15: Corporate bond curve

6.25

6.24 1yr

6.34

6.52

6.34

3yr

7.6

6.52 6.50

12-Sep-17

5yr

10yr

14-Aug-17



8.0

6.56 Yield (%)

Interest rates moved up across G-Sec and corporate bond category

Yield (%)

Exhibit 14: G-sec yield curve

7.2 6.8

7.63

7.33 6.97 6.81

7.60

7.13

7.11

7.30

6.4 1yr

3yr 12-Sep-17

5yr

10 yr

14-Aug-17


Page 12

Liquid Funds Yields on money market instruments viz. less than one year CDs and CPs in which liquid fund predominantly invest, remain stable at lower levels due to ample liquidity In an uncertain environment, liquid funds remain well placed to park money with low volatility



 

For less than a year, individuals in the higher tax bracket should opt for dividend option as the dividend distribution tax @ 28.325% is marginally lower. Also, though the tax arbitrage has reduced, they still earn better pre-tax returns over bank savings (3-4%) and current accounts (0-3%)



Changes in taxation rules announced in Union Budget 2014 are also applicable to liquid funds, as post tax returns in less than a three-year period get reduced for individuals in the higher tax bracket (30% tax slab) and for corporate

Exhibit 16: Call rates below repo rate

Exhibit 17: CP/CD yields

7 6.6

%

5.8 5.4

Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17

Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17

5

Call rate

3M CD


591377 Jun-17

643926

583557 May-17

568770

543541

469675 Dec-16

520020

468668 Nov-16

468022 Sep-16

484802

467418 Aug-16

| lakh Crore

500000

496696

21,352 -19,511

-12,739

600000

Aug-17

Exhibit 19: AUM remains healthy

99,403 -64,692

-15,147

-34,813


700000

8,227

10,541

26,943

1,350

19630

-13182

400000

Apr-17

Mar-17

Feb-17

Jan-17

Oct-16

Aug-17

Jul-17

Jun-17

Apr-17

May-17

Mar-17

Feb-17

Jan-17

Dec-16

Oct-16

Nov-16

300000

Sep-16

160,000 120,000 80,000 40,000 0 -40,000 -80,000 -120,000 -160,000 -200,000

Aug-16

Net Inflow ( | Cr )

Exhibit 18: Flows into liquid funds remain volatile on institutional activity

3M CP

629456

%

6.2

8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0

Jul-17

View Neutral

Money Market


Preferred Picks

  

HDFC Cash Management Fund - Savings Plan SBI Magnum InstaCash Reliance Liquid Fund - Treasury Plan



Page 13

Income funds

View Ultra-short term: Neutral Short-term: Positive Long-term: Neutral



RBI eased policy rates by 25 bps while maintaining neutral stance in its August 2 policy meet. This followed three consecutive months of lower than anticipated inflation readings, seemingly bottoming out at 1.54% headline CPI in June. Policy meeting minutes released later were somewhat hawkish with regards to future inflation path, highlighting aspects such as farm loan waiver linked fiscal indiscipline risk, firming household inflation expectations, rising vegetable prices and receding base effect as upside risks. Further CPI readings in July (2.36%YoY) and August (3.36% YoY) displayed a rebound from June levels led by rise in food prices and percolation effects of GST and HRA implementation for government employees. Core inflation rise during this time could provide cause for the RBI to maintain status quo on interest rates at its October meeting. The RBI has projected inflation to range from 2.03.5% for H1FY18 and from 3.5-4.5% for H2FY18. The benchmark 10 year G-sec yield witnessed some pressure over the last six weeks, climbing by ~15 bps from end-July levels to ~6.59% (September 14)



Dynamic bond funds or short-term funds with some dynamic allocation to G-Sec should be preferred over pure G-Sec funds or long-term duration funds



Short-term debt funds remain a stable performing category, especially in the current volatile environment. Credit funds with reasonable credit quality should be preferred over an aggressive credit fund

Exhibit 20: Income funds witness significant outflow in June

Exhibit 21: AUM remains stable on consistent inflows 858188 Aug-17

778266 Jun-17

845484

792734

Jul-17

780797

794679 Feb-17

Apr-17

783778 Jan-17

May-17

748071 Dec-16

743783

784305

Mar-17

754662

Aug-17

May-17

Feb-17

Nov-16

Aug-16

May-16

Feb-16

Nov-15

Aug-15

-80,000

Oct-16

-60,000

Nov-16

-40,000

698418

0

-20,000

Sep-16

20,000

900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000

704240

Net Inflows (| .Cr)

40,000

Aug-16

60,000

| Crore

12,671 -26,717 22,875 2,474 -25,875 15,014 -925 -14,048 31,448 5,688 1,697 43,913 28,457 -11,024 52,125 18,306 -33,182 28,588 10,864 -56,247 34,647 5,124 -20,685 60,084 8,390

80,000

Income


Recommended funds

Ultra Short Term Funds  Birla Sun Life Savings Fund  ICICI Prudential Flexible income Short Term Funds  Birla Sunlife short term fund  HDFC Short Term Fund  ICICI Pru Short Term Plan Short Term Funds – Credit opportunities  Birla Sunlife Short Term opportunities term  HDFC Corporate debt opportunities  ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Long term/Dynamic  Birla Sunlife income plus  ICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond Fund  IDFC dynamic bond fund



Page 14

View Short-term: Neutral Long-term: Neutral

Gilt Funds 

Yield on the benchmark 10 year government bond had hardened appreciably post the shift in RBI’s monetary policy stance from ‘accommodative to ‘neutral’. Softer than expected inflation prints in April, May and June combined with strong institutional flows into debt markets combined to push down benchmark 10 year G-sec yield by ~45-50 points in the period from May-July. However, the markets were not overly enthused by August rate cut as it was widely expected. A significant rebound in July and August CPI readings was followed by rise in yields by ~15 bps to 6.6%. The yield at 6.53% currently is up ~9 bps YTD. It briefly tested 6.95% at end-April



RBI eased policy rates by 25 bps while maintaining neutral stance in its August 2 policy meet. This followed three consecutive months of lower than anticipated inflation readings, seemingly bottoming out at 1.54% headline CPI in June. Policy meeting minutes released later were somewhat hawkish with regards to future inflation path, highlighting aspects such as farm loan waiver linked fiscal indiscipline risk, firming household inflation expectations, rising vegetable prices and receding base effect as upside risks. Further CPI readings in July (2.36%YoY) and August (3.36% YoY) displayed a rebound from June levels led by rise in food prices and percolation effects of GST and HRA implementation for government employees. Core inflation rise during this time could provide cause for the RBI to maintain status quo on interest rates at its October meeting. The RBI has projected inflation to range from 2.03.5% for H1FY18 and from 3.5-4.5% for H2FY18.



Allocation to pure G-Sec or duration funds should be avoided given their historical outperformance and G-Sec yield trading at the lower end of its historical range



Historically, it has been observed that years of good returns in G-sec are followed by lower returns

Exhibit 22: Historical trend in return from G-Sec indicates, going forward, returns likely to be lower Allocation to pure G-Sec or duration funds should be avoided given their historical outperformance and G-sec yield trading at the lower end of its historical range. Crisil 10 year Gilt index has delivered 38% return in the last three years. It is likely the return will be significantly lower, going forward

30 25

20 15 % 10

5 0 -5

-10

Crisil 10 Yr Gilt Index returns (calendar year)

Source: ACE MF

Preferred Picks

 

Aditya Birla Sun Life Gilt Plus – PF Plan ICICI Pru LT Gilt Fund – PF Option



Page 15

2017 YTD

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

-15

Gold: Under the spotlight due to geopolitical worries 

Global prices had a positive run in August. Starting from a base of ~US$1268 per ounce, they broke out towards US$1300 per ounce towards the end of August and ended the month sharply higher at ~US$1321 per ounce, a 2017 high. The metal gained further in early September, touching ~US$1349 per ounce on September 7 before consolidating towards ~US$1321 per ounce on September 15. This represents a ~14.6% YTD return



The strong rupee appreciation during this period of ~5.7% has prevented similar gains in Indian gold prices. Domestic rise has been limited to just ~7.7% YTD as of September 14



Investor interest in the metal spiked during August amid rising geopolitical tensions surrounding North Korea and the US. Safe haven buying combined with weakness in the US Dollar Index lent support to gold prices



Gold has historically been looked at as a relatively risk-free asset. Its price movement both in India and globally, is impacted by any actual or perceived risk build-up on economic, political or natural fronts. The US Dollar Index slid for most of August and further still in September, touching a low of 91.12 on September 14. Dollar softness leads to a rise in gold prices as the metal is denominated in that currency.



Marginal easing in geopolitical tensions seem to have capped the downside for gold prices. However, any deterioration in international equations could spark further strength



The Fed last hiked rates in June and held fire in July, with the outcome of the next meeting on September 20 being the immediate event to watch with regards to gold price direction. The pace of further hikes could be gradual in the face of consistent below expectation readings of US inflation data.



The medium-term outlook would remain largely anchored to developments on the Fed front. The markets are discounting the three expected rate hikes in 2017. Any deviation from this path, whether on the back of difficulty in achieving US medium term inflation target or otherwise, could affect prices

Price ($/ounce)



Price (|/10 grams)


Page 16

Sep-17

Aug-17

Jul-17

Jun-17

May-17

Apr-17

Mar-17

Feb-17

Jan-17

Dec-16

Nov-16

Aug-16

Sep-17

Aug-17

Jul-17

Jun-17

May-17

Apr-17

Mar-17

Feb-17

26000

Jan-17

1100 Dec-16

28000

Nov-16

1200

Oct-16

30000

Sep-16

1300

Aug-16

32000

Oct-16

Exhibit 24: Indian prices rise relatively less due to currency appreciation

1400

Sep-16

Exhibit 23: Gold prices rally sharply on global geopolitical concerns

Model Portfolios Equity funds model portfolio Investors who are wary of investing directly into equities can still get returns almost as good as equity markets through the mutual fund route. We have designed three mutual fund model portfolios, namely, conservative, moderate and aggressive mutual fund portfolios. These portfolios have been designed keeping in mind various key parameters like investment horizon, investment objective, scheme ratings, and fund management. Exhibit 25: Equity model portfolio Particulars Review Interval Risk Return

Aggressive Monthly High Risk- High Return % Allocation 20 20 20 20 20 100

Funds Allocation Franklin India Prima Plus Birla Sunlife Frontline Equity ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan SBI Bluechip Fund Kotak Select Focus Fund HDFC Midcap Opportunities Franklin India High Growth Companies Fund Birla SL Dynamic Bond Fund Total

Moderate Monthly Medium Risk Medium Return

Conservative Quarterly Low Risk - Low Return

20 20 20 20 10 10 100

20 20 20 20 20 100

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 26: Model portfolio performance: One year performance (as on Augsut 31, 2017) Aggressive 16% 15%

Conservative

BSE 100 15.3%

15.0% 14.0%

14%

%

Moderate

12.6%

13% 12%

11% 10%

Aggressive

Moderate

Conservative

BSE 100

Source: Crisil Fund Analyser, ICICIdirect.com Research


Page 17

Debt funds model portfolio We have designed three different mutual fund model portfolios for different investment duration viz. less than six months, six months to one year and above one year. These portfolios have been designed keeping in mind various key parameters like investment horizon, interest rate scenarios, credit quality of the portfolio and fund management, etc. Exhibit 27: Debt funds model portfolio Particulars

Time Horizon 0 – 6 months

Objective Review Interval

Liquidity Monthly Very Low Risk Nominal Return

Risk Return Funds Allocation Ultra Short term Funds Birla SL Savings Fund ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan Short Term Debt Funds Axis Regular Savings Fund Birla Sunlife Short Term Fund Birla Sunlife Short Term Opportunites Fund Reliance Regular Savings Fund HDFC Short Term Opportunities Fund ICICI Prudential Regular Savings ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund IDFC SSI Short Term UTI Short Term Income Fund HDFC Corporate Debt opportunities fund Total

6months - 1 Year Liquidity with moderate return Monthly Medium Risk Medium Return

Above 1 Year Above FD Quarterly Low Risk - High Return

% Allocation 20 20 20 20

20 20

20

20 20

20 20 20

20 20 100

20 100

100

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

%

Exhibit 32: Model portfolio performance: One year performance (as on August 31, 2017) 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

8.90

8.10

8.40

8.80

9.00

7.20

0-6 Months

6Months - 1Year Portfolio

Above 1yr

Index

Source: Crisil Fund Analyser, ICICIdirect.com Research

*Index: 0-6 month’s portfolio – Crisil Liquid Fund Index; 6 months-1 year – Blended Index with 50% weight to Crisil Liquid Index, 50% weight to Crisil Short Term Index; Above 1 year: Crisil Short Term Index


Page 18

Top Picks Exhibit 33: Category wise top picks Equity Funds & Equity-oriented Funds Largecaps

Birla Sun life Frontline Equity Fund ICICI Pru Focused Bluechip Fund SBI Bluechip Fund

Midcaps

HDFC Midcap Opportunities Fund Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund

Multicaps

Franklin India Prima Plus Fund Kotak Select Focus Fund

ELSS

Axis Long Term Equity Fund ICICI Pru Tax Plan Reliance Tax Saver Fund Franklin India Taxshield

Balanced

HDFC Balanced Fund ICICI Pru Balanced Fund Birla Sun Life Balanced 95 Fund DSP Blackrock Balanced Fund L&T India Prudence Fund Debt Funds

Liquid

HDFC Cash Mgmnt Saving Plan ICICI Pru Liquid Plan Reliance Liquid Treasury Plan

Ultra Short term

Birla Sunlife Savings Fund ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan UTI Treasury Advantage Fund-Inst

Short term

Birla SL Short term Fund HDFC Medium Term opportunities Fund Kotak Banking and PSU Debt Fund

Credit Opportunities

Axis Regular Savings Fund Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan L&T Short Term Income Fund

Income Funds

ICICI Pru Income Fund Birla SL Income Plus - Regular Plan IDFC Dynamic Bond Fund



Page 19

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

[email protected]

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected] Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

We, Sachin Jain, CA, and Jaimin Desai, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or Funds. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) AMFI Regn. No.: ARN-0845. ICICI Securities Limited is a SEBI registered Research Analyst with SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990.Registered office of ISec is at ICICI Securities Ltd. - ICICI Centre, H. T. Parekh Marg, Churchgate,Mumbai - 400020, India. ICICI Securities is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock broking and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, distribution of financial products etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. ICICI Securities is one of the leading distributors of Mutual Funds and participate in distribution of Mutual Fund Schemes of almost all AMCs in India. The selection of the Mutual Funds for the purpose of including in the indicative portfolio does not in any way constitute any recommendation by ICICI Securities Limited (hereinafter referred to as ICICI Securities) with respect to the prospects or performance of these Mutual Funds. The investor has the discretion to buy all or any of the Mutual Fund units forming part of any of the indicative portfolios on icicidirect.com. Before placing an order to buy the funds forming part of the indicative portfolio, the investor has the discretion to deselect any of the units, which he does not wish to buy. Nothing in the indicative portfolio constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to the investor's specific circumstances. The details included in the indicative portfolio are based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. The funds included in the indicative portfolio may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgement by any investor. The investor should independently evaluate the investment risks. ICICI Securities and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this indicative portfolio. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. ICICI Securities may be holding all or any of the units included in the indicative portfolio from time to time as part of our treasury management. ICICI Securities Limited is not providing the service of Portfolio Management Services (Discretionary or Non Discretionary) to its clients. Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Kindly note that such research recommended funds in indicative portfolio are not based on individual risk profile of each customer unless a customer has opted for a paid Investment Advisory Service offered by I-Sec. Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. The information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities Limited. The contents of this mail are solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments or any other product. While due care has been taken in preparing this mail, I-Sec and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of any inaccurate, delayed or incomplete information nor for any actions taken in reliance thereon. This mail/report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject I-Sec and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. ICICI Securities and/or its associates receive compensation/ commission for distribution of Mutual Funds from various Asset Management Companies (AMCs). ICICI Securities host the details of the commission rates earned by ICICI Securities from Mutual Fund houses on our website www.icicidirect.com. Hence, ICICI Securities or its associates may have received compensation from AMCs whose funds are mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for distribution of Mutual Funds or for providing marketing advertising support to these AMCs. ICICI Securities also provides stock broking services to institutional clients including AMCs. Hence, ICICI Securities may have received brokerage for security transactions done by any of the above AMCs during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the AMCs whose funds are mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Sachin Jain, CA, and Jaimin Desai, CA, Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the Mutual Funds house whose funds are mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or is associates may be holding all or any of the units included in the indicative portfolio from time to time as part of our treasury management. Hence, ICICI Securities or its associates may own 1% or more of the units of the Mutual Funds mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Research Analysts or their relatives of this report do not own 1% or more of the units of the Mutual Funds mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies/ AMCs including the AMCs whose funds are mentioned in this report or may have invested in the funds mentioned in this report . ICICI Securities also distributes Mutual Fund Schemes of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company which is an ICICI Group Company, scheme details of which might also be appearing in the report above. However, the transactions are executed at Client's sole discretion and Clients make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs.. It is confirmed that Sachin Jain, Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the AMCs whose funds mentioned in the report. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies/funds mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Research Analysis activities. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The funds described herein may or may not be eligible for subscription in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.


Page 20