Nationwide house price index - Nationwide Building Society

www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi

Q1 2015

Continued softening in regional house price growth   

Annual house price growth slowed in all regions except North of England London annual price growth softens from 17.8% to 12.7% Wales weakest performing region, with prices down 0.5% compared to Q1 2014

UK Fact File Average UK House Price Annual percentage change Quarterly change* Most expensive region Least expensive region Strongest annual price change Weakest annual price change

£188,566 5.9% 0.6% London N Ireland London Wales

* Seasonally adjusted (Note that quarterly % changes are revised when seasonal adjustment factors are re-estimated) Please note that these figures are for the three months to March, therefore will show a different UK average price and annual percentage change to our monthly house price report.

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North Outer Metropolitan East Midlands East Anglia Outer South East London Northern Ireland South West North West Yorks & Humberside West Midlands Wales Scotland UK

“Continuing the trend seen in the previous quarter, all regions except the North of England saw a further slowing in annual price growth in Q1 2015. Across the UK as a whole, prices rose by 0.6% over the quarter, after allowing for seasonal effects. Prices were up 5.9% compared with Q1 2014. “London remained the strongest performing region, with average prices up 12.7% year-on-year, although annual house price growth has slowed noticeably compared with recent quarters, with growth down from 17.8% in Q4 2014. “Amongst the other English regions, the Outer Metropolitan area continued to outperform, with annual price growth not far behind London at 12.0%. Yorkshire and Humberside was the weakest performing English region, with prices up 1.3% over the last 12 months. “Northern Ireland saw a slowing in annual price growth to 5.7%, while annual price growth in Scotland moderated to 1.3%. Wales remained the weakest performing region and was also the only region to see a fall in average prices, which were down 0.5% compared with Q1 2014.”

Regions over the last 12 months

Regions over the quarter Region

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:

Average Price

Quarterly % change*

£125,299 £306,931 £158,575 £193,772 £235,747 £408,780 £121,052 £209,585 £144,145 £141,647 £161,989 £139,171 £140,180 £188,566

2.5% 2.3% 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.5% -0.6% 0.6%

Region London Outer Met Outer SE East Anglia E Midlands N Ireland South West W Midlands North North West Yorks & H Scotland Wales UK

Average Price (Q1 2015) £408,780 £306,931 £235,747 £193,772 £158,575 £121,052 £209,585 £161,989 £125,299 £144,145 £141,647 £140,180 £139,171 £188,566

Media enquiries to: Robert Gardner, Chief Economist, [email protected] Mike Pitcher, 01793 657225, [email protected] 1

Annual % change this quarter 12.7% 12.0% 8.4% 7.8% 5.9% 5.7% 5.7% 4.7% 4.7% 2.0% 1.3% 1.3% -0.5% 5.9%

Annual % change last quarter 17.8% 12.7% 10.6% 9.8% 6.0% 8.1% 8.0% 6.8% 4.4% 3.8% 1.5% 4.2% 1.4% 8.3%

Scotland

Wales

Average house price Annual percentage change Quarterly change* Most expensive area

£140,180 1.3% -0.6% Aberdeen City

Average house price Annual percentage change Quarterly change* Most expensive area

Least expensive area

Fife

Least expensive area

Strongest annual price change Weakest annual price change

Edinburgh City Highlands & Islands

Strongest annual price change Weakest annual price change

£139,171 -0.5% -0.5% Cardiff Mid & West Wales South Wales (West) North Wales

* Seasonally adjusted


There was a further slowing in annual house price growth in Scotland, from 4.2% last quarter to 1.3% this quarter.

Wales saw its third consecutive quarter-on-quarter fall in house prices, with a 0.5% seasonally adjusted decline. The annual rate of change slipped into negative territory, with average prices down 0.5% compared with 2014 Q1.

Edinburgh was the best performing area, with prices up 11% on the previous year. The Highlands and Islands saw the weakest growth, with prices up 2%. Click here for Scotland’s sub-regional data The Land & Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) is set to be introduced in Scotland on 1 April. Under LBTT, those purchasing properties above £333,000 will pay more tax compared with marginal stamp duty land tax (SDLT) system now in use in the rest of the UK. However, based on 2013/14 transactions, nearly 60% will pay less tax under LBTT compared with the old slab structure SDLT, with average savings around £1,600.

South Wales (West), which includes Bridgend, the Vale of Glamorgan and Swansea, was the best performing with prices up 5% year-on-year. Click here for Wales’ sub-regional data


Northern Ireland Average house price Annual percentage change Quarterly change* Most expensive area Least expensive area Strongest annual price change Weakest annual price change

London £121,052 5.7% 0.2% City of Belfast Northern Ireland (West) Northern Ireland (West) Northern Ireland (North East)

Average house price Annual percentage change Quarterly change* Most expensive area Least expensive area Strongest annual price change Weakest annual price change

£408,780 12.7% 1.0% Westminster Barking and Dagenham Barking and Dagenham Merton



House prices in Northern Ireland were up 5.7% year-onyear, similar to the UK average.

Annual house price growth in London slowed from 17.8% to 12.7%, although the capital continued to outperform the rest of the country. At £408,780, average prices are now 36% above their 2007 peak.

Northern Ireland (West), which includes Coleraine and Derry/Londonderry, was the strongest performing area with a 12% increase.

Click here for Northern Ireland’s sub region data

Amongst London’s boroughs, Barking and Dagenham saw the strongest growth, with prices up 22% year-onyear, while Merton saw the weakest growth with a 3% increase. Click here for London borough data


England Average house price Annual percentage change Quarterly change* Most expensive region Least expensive region Strongest annual price change Weakest annual price change

£227,659 8.4% 0.9% London North London Yorkshire & Humberside

* Seasonally adjusted Average house prices in England increased by 0.9% in Q1, and were up 8.4% year-on-year. The familiar story of a north / south divide in house price growth continued. Prices in Southern England (South West, Outer South East, Outer Metropolitan, London and East Anglia) were up 10.3% year-on-year, whilst in Northern England (West Midlands, East Midlands, Yorkshire & Humberside, North West and North) prices rose by 3.6%.

It is interesting to note that the impact of the Help To Buy schemes continues to be strongest in the northern regions, where we are seeing weaker price growth.

Amongst England’s major towns and cities, St. Albans was the top performer, with prices up 22% year-onyear. Manchester was the worst performing city, with a 1% year-on-year fall.


Major Towns and Cities Best performing regional towns / cities

Worst performing regional towns / cities

Rank Town / City

Rank Town / City

1 2 3 4 5

St. Albans Reading Oxford London* Brighton

Annual Average % Price change 22% £498,957 19% £325,176 13% £407,136 13%* £450,125* 13% £404,032

1 2 3 4 5

Annual % change -1% 0% 3% 3% 3%

Manchester Bradford Plymouth Leicester Cardiff

Average Price £211,571 £164,185 £183,424 £175,121 £221,581

* This figure is on a different basis to the London regional index to enable a direct comparison with other towns and cities

Sub Regional Analysis Just as the national data disguises differences in house prices throughout the UK, looking at the regions disguises movements in local house prices. To look at these developments more closely the areas can be divided into sub-regions.

Scotland Nationwide Sub Regions Aberdeen City Aberdeenshire & Moray Dunbartonshire & North Lanarkshire Dundee & Angus Edinburgh City Fife Glasgow City Highlands & Islands Lothian & Falkirk Perthshire & Stirling Renfrewshire & Inverclyde South Lanarkshire Southern Scotland

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Price in 2015 Q1

% change over 10 years

£274,894 £193,512 £155,025 £157,286 £269,744 £137,564 £172,806 £152,929 £166,756 £170,225 £166,113 £142,469 £140,311

99% 78% 14% 41% 23% 9% 15% 23% 24% 25% 20% 16% 14%

Yorkshire & Humberside Nationwide Sub Regions Bradford East Yorkshire Leeds North Lincolnshire North Yorkshire Sheffield South Yorkshire West Yorkshire York

Annual % change last quarter 12% 8% 4% 3% 10% 1% 10% 4% 8% 7% 7% 5% 7%

Annual % change this quarter 10% 7% 1% 5% 11% 0% 6% -2% 7% 5% 1% 7% 6%


Price in 2015 Q1


£164,185 £159,569 £199,283 £136,286 £205,229 £192,483 £143,452 £155,106 £239,807

4% 11% 6% 8% 10% 17% 0% 3% 19%

Annual % change last quarter 6% 4% 9% 4% 7% 8% 4% 2% 9%


Annual % change this quarter 0% 5% 6% 1% 4% 5% 0% -2% 7%

Northern Ireland Nationwide Sub Regions City of Belfast Northern Ireland (North East) Northern Ireland (South East) Northern Ireland (West)


Price in 2015 Q1


£180,400 £129,035 £149,106 £117,269

14% 2% 9% -4%

Price in 2015 Q1


£221,581 £153,239 £163,336 £165,291 £168,099

10% 2% -1% 4% 16%

Price in 2015 Q1


£283,221 £279,141 £283,307 £260,577 £217,377 £263,141 £221,474 £197,936 £183,424 £274,042 £211,266 £234,747 £248,813 £208,536 £240,212

27% 20% 44% 20% 9% 18% 15% 6% 13% 15% 15% 16% 28% 11% 20%

Price in 2015 Q1


£201,199 £211,571 £179,243 £154,157 £162,765 £187,909

10% 14% 11% 4% 3% 11%

Wales Nationwide Sub Regions Cardiff Mid & West Wales North Wales South Wales (East) South Wales (West)

Bath Bournemouth Bristol Cheltenham Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Dorset Gloucestershire North Devon Plymouth Poole Somerset South Devon South Gloucestershire Swindon Wiltshire

Cheshire City of Manchester Greater Manchester Lancashire Merseyside Warrington & Halton

Annual % change last quarter 4% 7% 6% 5% 5%

Annual % change this quarter 3% 4% 0% 2% 5%


North West Nationwide Sub Regions

Annual % change this quarter 10% 6% 7% 12%


South West Nationwide Sub Regions

Annual % change last quarter 17% 5% 11% 14%

Annual % change last quarter 7% 11% 14% -2% 9% 10% 8% -1% 5% 7% 5% 5% 12% 9% 11%

Annual % change this quarter 3% 11% 11% 4% 10% 6% 5% 1% 3% 5% 2% 5% 7% 8% 7%


Annual % change last quarter 7% 0% 9% 7% 3% 8%


Annual % change this quarter 4% -1% 5% 4% 3% 6%

West Midlands Nationwide Sub Regions Birmingham Coventry Greater Birmingham Herefordshire Shropshire Staffordshire Warwickshire Worcestershire


Price in 2015 Q1


£192,681 £187,688 £185,958 £203,213 £182,679 £173,755 £227,873 £212,625

6% 14% 9% 9% 7% 8% 17% 11%

Price in 2015 Q1


£184,735 £179,211 £194,091 £160,284 £201,076 £196,326 £170,936 £176,889 £168,070

10% 10% 9% 4% 13% 11% 6% 12% 3%

Price in 2015 Q1


£323,196 £282,730 £386,226 £325,739 £348,916 £218,978 £233,280 £395,230 £325,176 £341,897 £366,034 £296,697 £498,957 £294,969 £390,506 £320,566 £410,530 £348,038

35% 23% 41% 43% 42% 18% 24% 42% 50% 38% 38% 32% 67% 30% 43% 34% 44% 41%

East Midlands Nationwide Sub Regions Derby Derbyshire Leicestershire Mid Lincolnshire Northampton Town Northamptonshire Nottingham Nottinghamshire South Lincolnshire

Bracknell Forest Central Kent East Surrey Hart & Rushmoor Hertfordshire Luton Medway North Surrey Reading Slough South Buckinghamshire & Chilterns South Essex St Albans West Kent West Surrey West Sussex (North) Windsor & Maidenhead Wokingham

Annual % change this quarter 5% 9% 5% 10% 5% 4% 8% 3%


Outer Metropolitan Nationwide Sub Regions

Annual % change last quarter 7% 6% 10% 10% 4% 7% 6% 10%

Annual % change last quarter 6% 5% 7% 9% 5% 12% 14% 9% 8%

Annual % change this quarter 6% 5% 6% 7% 8% 6% 11% 8% 6%


Annual % change last quarter 12% 9% 15% 14% 16% 9% 13% 16% 19% 14% 8% 14% 24% 12% 12% 9% 14% 13%


Annual % change this quarter 10% 7% 12% 12% 12% 6% 14% 10% 19% 19% 12% 14% 22% 10% 11% 10% 14% 12%

London London Boroughs Barking and Dagenham Barnet Bexley Brent Bromley Camden Croydon Ealing Enfield Greenwich Hackney Hammersmith and Fulham Haringey Harrow Havering Hillingdon Hounslow Islington Kingston upon Thames Lambeth Lewisham Merton Newham Redbridge Richmond upon Thames Southwark Sutton Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest Wandsworth Westminster


Price in 2015 Q1


£261,091 £439,593 £292,796 £501,128 £366,030 £809,007 £328,798 £491,909 £383,206 £398,885 £600,247 £781,436 £506,904 £378,337 £278,662 £358,878 £396,870 £687,725 £471,803 £554,868 £427,650 £450,491 £359,592 £351,679 £553,884 £563,345 £351,220 £543,417 £396,796 £636,488 £927,977

44% 62% 46% 82% 64% 112% 56% 80% 62% 71% 136% 121% 83% 50% 36% 46% 49% 125% 77% 101% 93% 65% 65% 56% 89% 107% 61% 97% 82% 100% 117%

Annual % change last quarter 21% 16% 15% 9% 21% 22% 21% 22% 22% 14% 16% 8% 20% 18% 18% 14% 16% 19% 27% 19% 23% 12% 29% 15% 14% 20% 21% 20% 24% 13% 18%

Annual % change this quarter 22% 12% 11% 8% 13% 11% 19% 15% 20% 17% 10% 11% 6% 14% 13% 13% 5% 7% 19% 12% 15% 3% 20% 16% 13% 10% 18% 6% 17% 10% 9%

Note: City of London and Kensington & Chelsea excluded due to low sample size

East Anglia Nationwide Sub Regions Cambridgeshire Norfolk Peterborough Suffolk


Price in 2015 Q1


£263,339 £201,649 £173,942 £221,223

32% 14% 11% 21%

Annual % change last quarter 15% 9% 0% 13%


Annual % change this quarter 14% 7% 0% 10%

Outer South East Nationwide Sub Regions Basingstoke & Deane Bedford Brighton & Hove Central Bedfordshire East Kent East Sussex Isle of Wight Mid Hampshire Milton Keynes & Aylesbury New Forest North Essex Oxfordshire Portsmouth Area Southampton Area West Berkshire West Sussex (South)


Price in 2015 Q1


£292,925 £222,145 £404,032 £265,866 £233,475 £255,943 £197,694 £309,690 £276,534 £297,916 £246,072 £328,444 £223,770 £249,678 £319,530 £285,300

32% 17% 54% 29% 23% 24% 7% 29% 27% 29% 20% 38% 22% 20% 39% 25%

North Nationwide Sub Regions County Durham Cumbria Northumberland Teesside Tyne and Wear

Annual % change last quarter 12% 14% 13% 14% 10% 10% 8% 9% 11% 9% 11% 11% 12% 8% 9% 11%

Annual % change this quarter 11% 11% 13% 12% 10% 4% -1% 7% 10% 7% 9% 10% 9% 4% 11% 10%


Price in 2015 Q1


£150,188 £167,776 £167,564 £156,280 £166,454

4% 18% 6% 2% 3%

Annual % change last quarter 8% 3% 6% 8% 6%


Annual % change this quarter 9% 2% 10% 4% 5%

Notes 1. Indices and average prices for the UK and the regions are produced using Nationwide's updated mix adjusted House Price Methodology which was introduced with effect from the first quarter of 1995. All changes are nominal and do not allow for inflation. The methodology can be found on our website: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/nationwide-hpi-methodology.pdf 2. Price indices are seasonally adjusted using the US Bureau of the Census X12 method. Quarterly series are seasonally adjusted using data since 1973. The seasonal adjustment is recalculated quarterly and may lead to revisions. 3. The price changes in the sub regional, local authority and major towns and cities tables are based on the price per unit area of the properties in the sample rather than the mix-adjusted methodology used for the 13 regions. The average price per square foot in each of the sub-regions is grossed up by the average square footage in a particular region to arrive at an average house price. Unlike Nationwide’s main index, this methodology does not take into account the different mix of properties transacted and is therefore a simplification. 4. Sub-regional figures are therefore not directly comparable with regional prices. Samples are substantially smaller than at a regional level and figures should not be relied upon for any critical application. Due to greater volatility, sub-regional prices are smoothed over two quarters. Photographs of our economist are available at: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/about/media-centre-and-specialist-areas/media-centre/photo-library

Legal Information The Nationwide House Price Indices are prepared from information that we believe is collated with care, but no representation is made as to their accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the indices at any time, for regulatory or other reasons. Persons seeking to place reliance on the Indices for any purpose whatsoever do so at their own risk and should be aware that various factors, including external factors beyond Nationwide Building Society’s control might necessitate material changes to the Indices. The Nationwide House Price Indices may not be used for commercial purposes including as a reference for: 1) determining the interest payable, or other sums due, under loan agreements or other contracts relating to investments 2) determining the price at which investments may be bought or sold or the value of investments or 3) measuring the performance of investments. Nationwide Building Society is the owner of the trade mark “Nationwide” and all copyright and other rights in the Nationwide House Price Indices. The application of the IOSCO Principles on financial benchmarks to the NHPI is more fully set out in our statement regarding IOSCO Principles. Nationwide considers that its arrangements for administration of the NHPI comply with the IOSCO Principles in a proportionate manner having regard to the nature of the index.
