Network in Next Generation Manufacturing ...

Network in Next Generation Manufacturing Enterprises Workshop THE UK AEROSPACE AND AUTOMOTIVE SECTORS December 2001

FINAL REPORT

Authors: A Hodgson & Professor N N Z Gindy Results of the Network in Next Generation Manufacturing Enterprises Workshop Arts Centre University of Nottingham 13th & 14th December 2001

Network in Next Generation Manufacturing Enterprises Workshop THE UK AEROSPACE AND AUTOMOTIVE SECTORS December 2001

FINAL REPORT Authors: Allan Hodgson & Professor N N Z Gindy School of Mechanical, Materials, Manufacturing Engineering and Management University of Nottingham

Funded by the EPSRC

Organising Committee Professor Nabil Gindy, University of Nottingham (chair) Allan Hodgson, University of Nottingham Gerry Robinson, University of Nottingham Andrew Heap, University of Nottingham Cliff Fowkes, BAE Systems

ISBN 0 85358 106 1

For further copies of this report, or the associated summary report, please contact: Professor Nabil Gindy, School of Mechanical, Materials, Manufacturing Engineering and Management, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham, NG7 2RD. Tel.: 0115 951 4069. January 2002

i

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report details the activities of a workshop that took place on 13th and 14th December 2001 at the University of Nottingham. The workshop was organised as one of the activities of the Network in Next Generation Manufacturing Enterprises (NNGME), which is sponsored by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC). The subject of the workshop was the World of 2020, the ramifications for manufacturing, with particular reference to the aerospace and automotive sectors, and the evaluation of a framework and process to feed the resulting drivers into national, sector and enterprise action plans. The primary aims of the workshop were: (1) To apply the NNGME framework and process in order to derive a set of action recommendations for the aerospace and automotive manufacturing sectors (2) In doing so, to evaluate the NNGME framework and process (3) To encourage dissemination and interchange of views amongst delegates with a view to further collaborative research work The workshop was attended by twenty-three participants drawn from industry (primarily aerospace and automotive) and academic institutions. Two forward-looking keynote presentations covering the aerospace and automotive industries set the scene for the workshop activities over the two days. A further presentation on the second day detailed the supporting role and initiatives of the EPSRC. The key approach of the workshop was to utilise facilitated group breakout sessions, each followed by a plenary session for presentations of findings, to develop views of the world of 2020 and to link these views to the needs, obstacles and potential actions of the present. A draft NNGME framework and associated process had already been developed, and this framework underpinned the facilitation activities and supporting documentation for the group activities. As a result, it was also possible to obtain useful feedback on the framework and process from the delegates. The workshop breakout activities and associated plenary sessions generated analyses of 2020 lifestyle and manufacturing scenarios, global and sector drivers, essential industrial responses, obstacles to these responses, enablers and recommendations for action. They also provided valuable tests and assessments of the NNGME framework and process. The key recommendations for action generated by the above activities related to the need to raise the status of engineering, to assess quantitatively the contribution of manufacturingrelated activity to the UK, to disseminate best practice and to create manufacturing research leadership and focus. It was also considered that further network activities should include the definition or creation of a futurist (or futurologist) role or function. The feedback about the NNGME framework and process indicated that they formed the basis of an effective roadmap; however, more guidance was needed in the process of generating future scenarios, their ramifications for global drivers, and the derivation of sector drivers from these global drivers.

ii

CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................... II CONTENTS .............................................................................................................. III 1

INTRODUCTION................................................................................................. 1

1.1

Background.............................................................................................................. 1

1.2

2001 workshop aims and objectives ........................................................................ 1

1.3

Workshop deliverables ............................................................................................ 2

1.4

Workshop activities ................................................................................................. 2

2

ANALYSIS OF OUTPUTS FROM THE NNGME PROCESS ............................. 4

2.1 The world of 2020 .................................................................................................... 4 2.1.1 General .............................................................................................................. 4 2.1.2 Technology........................................................................................................ 5 2.1.3 Infrastructures.................................................................................................... 5 2.1.4 Environment ...................................................................................................... 6 2.1.5 Sector products .................................................................................................. 6 2.2 UK manufacturing in 2020...................................................................................... 6 2.2.1 The 2020 UK manufacturing sector as a whole .................................................. 6 2.2.2 Individual UK manufacturing sectors in 2010, 2020........................................... 7 2.3 Drivers...................................................................................................................... 8 2.3.1 Global drivers .................................................................................................... 8 2.3.2 Individual UK manufacturing sector drivers....................................................... 8 2.4

Required enterprise external behaviours ............................................................... 9

2.5

Required enterprise internal characteristics ........................................................ 10

2.6 Obstacles ................................................................................................................ 10 2.6.1 UK manufacturing industry obstacles............................................................... 10 2.6.2 Sector-specific obstacles .................................................................................. 11 2.7

Key enablers .......................................................................................................... 12

2.8

Recommendations for action................................................................................. 12

3

FURTHER NNGME-RELATED ACTIVITIES .................................................... 14

3.1

Filling the gaps in the NNGME framework and process ..................................... 14

3.2

Next steps for the network..................................................................................... 14

iii

4

KEY MESSAGES AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION ....................... 16

ANNEXES................................................................................................................ 17 Annex A:

List of attendees ......................................................................................... 17

Annex B:

Breakout groups......................................................................................... 21

Annex C:

Workshop agenda ...................................................................................... 22

Annex D:

Breakout session documentation ............................................................... 23

Annex E:

Breakout session responses ........................................................................ 37

iv

NNGME Workshop December 2001

1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background The pace of change of lifestyles, products, processes and manufacturing paradigms is increasing. Conventional, ad-hoc and intermittent approaches to the prediction of future needs and corresponding requirements for current action are no longer adequate; there appears to be a need for an ongoing ‘implications of the future’ process to be exercised by a wide community of people and organisations that have an interest in manufacturing. The Network in Next Generation Manufacturing Enterprises (NNGME) aims to develop a community, a process for assessing the future and determining actions to support manufacturing, and a resulting set of action recommendations. Workshops represent an essential element of the NNGME activities. They provide an opportunity for the community to explore potential futures and their ramifications; they enable a focus on sectors or on processes not covered adequately elsewhere. Of equal importance, they allow the evaluation and dissemination of the processes and ideas being developed under the NNGME umbrella. The 1999 NNGME workshop (The Workshop in Responsive Production and Planning) explored the requirements for a responsive enterprise and the barriers preventing enterprises from achieving responsiveness. In this 1999 workshop, attention was paid firstly to the global and other drivers of responsive manufacturing. UK industry strengths, weaknesses, barriers and imperatives (enablers) were then identified and, finally, an industry-orientated research agenda and a set of short-term actions were proposed. Since the above workshop, an NNGME framework and process have been developed and encapsulated in a draft report. Although not yet completed, these provide guidelines and background information for developing action plan recommendations from global drivers. The framework and process were used as the basis for this (2001) workshop structure, documentation and group session topics.

1.2 2001 workshop aims and objectives The subject of the workshop was the World of 2020, the ramifications for manufacturing, with particular reference to the aerospace and automotive sectors, and the evaluation of a process to feed the resulting drivers into national, sector and enterprise action plans. The primary aims of the workshop were as follows: (1) To apply the NNGME framework and process in order to derive a set of action recommendations for the UK and for the chosen manufacturing sectors (2) In doing so, to evaluate the NNGME framework and process (3) To encourage dissemination and interchange of views amongst delegates with a view to further collaborative research work within and external to the NNGME The workshop concentrated primarily on the aerospace and automotive manufacturing sectors. It is intended that future workshops should tackle other sectors, including food and pharmaceutical. The detailed objectives of the workshop were to utilise facilitated breakout sessions in order to achieve the following:

1


       

Develop outline views of the World of 2020, its lifestyles, products, materials, processes, etc. Determine the resulting implications for a changing manufacturing environment in 2010, 2020 Determine the global and sector drivers affecting UK manufacturing now and over the years ahead. Determine the required responses of manufacturing enterprises Ascertain the main obstacles to progress and key enablers required to overcome these obstacles Discuss potential action plans Provide feedback on the outline framework used to support the above analysis Consider future directions and activities for the NNGME

1.3 Workshop deliverables The main deliverables were in the form of lists relating to the above objectives:  Lifestyles, products, materials and processes of 2020  Global, UK and aerospace/automotive sector drivers  Obstacles/barriers to progress and corresponding enablers  Potential action plans  Feedback on the constraints of the current NNGME framework and process, suggestions for improvements and for further developments and activities of the network

1.4 Workshop activities The workshop was held at the University of Nottingham Arts Centre on 13th and 14th December 2001. It was attended by twenty-three delegates representing academic research (particularly in innovative manufacturing), industrial research and industrial management interests. Following brief introductions to the history of the NNGME, the purpose of the workshop and the functions of the NNGME framework, two keynote presentations were made to set the scene for the following group activities. The first presentation, on the future developments and present problems of the aerospace sector, was delivered by Chris Cooper and Ian McManus of BAE Systems. This presentation highlighted some of the problems associated with the accelerating trend towards out-sourcing and complex supply chains. The presentation emphasised the importance of applying new paradigms, in particular lean manufacturing, to all processes and activities, not just to the diminishing proportion of manufacturing-related processes. Such ‘end-to-end lean manufacture’ would include all the processes associated with producing the existing products, and all the processes associated with the development and introduction of new products. The second presentation, on developments in the automobile sector, was delivered by John Victory of Ford UK. Ford’s power train organisation already has a 100% intake of graduates, and promotes continuing engineer development e.g. via MSc’s and doctorates. The world of 2020 was forecast still to include personal vehicles, downsized and utilising exotic materials. Increasing environmental pressures will lead to a ‘total natural resource view’ of manufacturing. Many of the technologies and fuels for future vehicles are already being demonstrated in proof-of-concept prototypes.

2


On the second day, a presentation by Neil Bateman of the EPSRC detailed the research council’s supporting role in engineering and manufacture. The presentation covered the engineering-related EPSRC budget for 2001 (£103.8m) and issues such as building critical mass, working with industry, research take-up and recruitment and retention of people. The EPSRC is addressing some of the issues raised by the recent Foresight activities, in particular those of the Foresight Manufacturing 2020 panel. Workshop members were recommended to look at the relevant Foresight publications if they had not done so already. The main activities of the workshop consisted of three facilitated group breakout sessions, each followed by plenary presentations. For each breakout session, a set of questions was posed, supporting information was provided where relevant, and a set of headed slides was supplied to minimise presentation preparation time and to provide a common presentation structure. Copies of the actual documentation can be found in Annex D: The breakout session documentation. The three group breakout sessions were based on the following topics: Session 1 - Sector Pictures  The world of 2020  UK manufacturing/production in 2020  The aerospace and automotive sector ‘pictures’ in 2001, 2010 and 2020  Related issues (allowing the delegates to raise other issues) Session 2 – Drivers, responses and barriers  Global drivers  UK and sector drivers  The key sector ‘external responses’ to the above drivers  Changes required in your sector to company ‘internal characteristics’  Major obstacles in your sector to the achievement of the above changes Session 3 – Gaps, recommendations and next steps  Key enablers or imperatives required to overcome the sector obstacles identified in Session 2  Key recommendations for action (general and sector-specific)  Filling in the gaps and extending the NNGME framework  Next steps for the network Following each of the first two sets of presentations, all group presentation slides were copied and distributed to the other groups prior to the following group breakout sessions. The workshop closing remarks were delivered by Professor Nabil Gindy. These drew attention to some of the recurring topics of debate at the workshop, in particular the status and activities of manufacturing engineers, and the quantifiable value of manufacturing. Manufacturing engineers are not very effective in articulating and quantifying what they do; the wide scope of activities makes it very difficult to produce a meaningful standard definition.

3


2

ANALYSIS OF OUTPUTS FROM THE NNGME PROCESS

The outputs of the facilitated group breakout sessions, in terms of the slides and notes taken of the presentations, have been analysed. The lists in the following subsections are the results of combining, rationalising (including the transfer of material to more appropriate sections) the raw output of the group sessions, and the output from the presentations and discussions that took place during the plenary sessions. However, word-processed copies of the original slides have been retained in Annex E. The comments heading each section are overviews that attempt to summarise the various points and their implications.

2.1 The world of 2020 2.1.1 General The proportion of the population over fifty-five years of age will be much greater than now; products, services, infrastructures and workplaces will have to adjust as appropriate to this change. There will be more single person households, and more home-workers; the house will become the main office or base for many more of the workforce than at present. Recreating the personal social interaction that currently occurs at the workplace may become an issue. The applications of electronics and information technology will become pervasive. Personal devices, many embedded in humans, combined with virtual reality (including total immersion virtual reality models, games, etc.), will offer new forms of entertainment and new ways of designing and evaluating products and services. Total immersion virtual reality may create a new range of social and individual problems due to the difficulties of adjusting (back) to the real world – particularly if it takes over from conventional television as the main form of entertainment. As technology change rates and competition increase, the average span of an individual employment contract will become significantly shorter. This will encourage (indeed necessitate) lifelong learning. Note that research elsewhere has shown that a significant proportion of those who would benefit most from learning update opportunities are (currently) unwilling to take advantage of them. There may be an increase in anti-globalisation sentiment in the developed world as well as elsewhere. Issues of security and terrorism will impinge on everyone’s life, and a new balance between personal freedom, privacy and security may emerge. 2020 lifestyles:  Demographics – ageing population  More households but less people  Increasing entertainment via virtual interactive worlds (the new soaps?)’ leading to significant social problems (many people may find difficulties in distinguishing between the virtual and real world)  Boom in personal devices (for communications, advice, entertainment, etc.) (2010)  Much more home-working  Lifelong learning and re-skilling become a normal part of most workers’ lives  More self-employment

4


 

Some degree of anti-globalisation sentiment in the West, as well as in other parts of the World Security issues now have a significantly increased effect

2.1.2 Technology The costs of wireless sensor technology will soon drop sufficiently that standard intelligent sensors will be embedded in most products (and probably in all but the simplest of components). When combined with activators, complex multifunction “plug’n’play” mechanical products will become an economic reality – offering some of the versatility of digital electronic systems. Smart materials will play an increasing part in many products. Smart materials with heattriggered shape memories are already available, and new materials with magnetically triggered memories are emerging. 2020 technology materials & products:  Embedded sensors and activators in most products  Replacement human body parts  Smart materials

2.1.3 Infrastructures The recent advent of the mobile phone has enabled major changes to lifestyles; however, the costs to the mobile companies of the associated infrastructure has been many £billions. Several further infrastructures will be required over then next twenty years; the funding of these (and the associated risk-reward factors) will become a major issue. A particular area of importance will be the potential funding of transport-related infrastructures – a zero pollution (e.g. hydrogen) fuel infrastructure, and an integrated public transport infrastructure (road, rail, air), the latter combining with new air traffic control infrastructures. The increase in home-working, lifelong learning activities and distributed virtual enterprise communications will put severe loads on the current UK and international internet infrastructure resources. When this load is combined with the increasing use of interactive distributed virtual reality games and other activities, the loading on the internet backbone is going to increase several-fold per year into the foreseeable future - faster than technologically-based speed and capacity developments. Future national spend on this infrastructure must therefore increase significantly. 2020 infrastructures:  Zero pollution transport fuel infrastructures  Advanced air traffic control infrastructures to deal with higher air traffic and more landing zones  Major upgrades/changes to the national/international internet infrastructure (hardware and software) to enable gigabit-rate communication and information access at the level of the individual - for home-working, on-line virtual reality, supply chain, etc. on a large scale  Infrastructures for government/corporation agency eavesdropping and control

5


2.1.4 Environment By the year 2020, current issues with regard to the environment will have been resolved; the case for zero pollution and reduced per-capita energy consumption will be accepted globally. Most industrial and transport processes will utilise non-polluting renewable sources. Due to legal constraints, recycling costs, taxation and changing attitudes, current day ‘throw-away consumerism’ may be replaced by a more benign form of market-driven production, update, re-use and recovery of good and services. 2020 environmental factors:  The pro-environment argument is now convincingly won and generally accepted  Zero polluting emissions in transport and manufacturing processes  Recycling -> reuse requirements may increasingly limit ‘raw consumerism’

2.1.5 Sector products Aerospace Large aircraft will fly us faster than today, but this increase in speed will have little impact on overall consumer journey time; increased congestion at international hubs will cause increasing frustration and more incidences of airport rage. There will be a significant increase in small aircraft collecting and delivering us closer to where we want to be; this will require organisations and infrastructures for the maintenance and control of busy air corridors. 2020 aerospace:  Big planes still around, big hubs, airport rage  Faster “air” time – but little impact on point to point time  Smaller craft getting us from where we are to where we want to be – air corridors, can we do it safely? Automotive Increased controls and limitations on driving, automated driving and navigation systems, and the increasing availability of instant-hire and short-term lease options will in total result in less vehicle ownership and more hire or lease of vehicles to suit the purpose in hand. Automated taxis will be available at any time; low costs due to high utilisation, ‘no cabby’ and low fuel consumption will make them an economic and increasingly popular consumer option. 2020 automotive:  Non-personal ownership of personal transport, mood/need-appropriate transport  Auto-taxis  Size flexibility – clip together  Automated driving systems

2.2 UK manufacturing in 2020 2.2.1 The 2020 UK manufacturing sector as a whole A wider range of products and services will be available to a larger total market (e.g. persons with significant disposable income, companies, government organisations) than is currently the case. However, competitive pressure and technological advance will combine to put

6


continuing downward pressure on real costs and hence the contribution of manufacturing industry to gross domestic product is likely to be less than now. Environmental/legal constraints with regard to pollution and recycling/reclamation/re-use will have significant effects on designs, processes and materials. Global enterprises will increasingly manufacture close to their markets, enabling local masscustomisation and reducing the physical volume and value of imports and exports. Manufacturing plants will be increasingly flexible, based on Toyota Productions System principles, and products will be increasingly standards-based and modular – enabling a large proportion of customisation to be incorporated at a late stage. Already, first tier manufacturers are moving into services; for example, Ford Motor Company has subsidiary leasing companies that provide vehicles to user organisations. This trend into services will continue, as manufacturing enterprises begin to exploit the fact that the largest and most reliable revenue stream of a product/service occurs during the service life, after the initial sale. 2020 manufacturing sector:  More ‘stuff’ being consumed, so more manufacturing (but unlikely to represent a larger proportion of GDP due to productivity improvements)  Environmental constraints will impose increasingly tough sealed for life -> recycle -> remanufacture -> reuse/upgrade policies  Foreign-owned global enterprises will manufacture close to point of sale (UK and elsewhere) – less physical import/export of products  Most products will have local/tailored (mass) customisation  Manufacturing systems will be increasingly configurable  Variants on the Toyota production system (TPS) will be utilised in all successful manufacturing enterprises  There will be far more modularisation (and module standardisation) of products  Value will be seen increasingly in end-use (service) rather than physical product

2.2.2 Individual UK manufacturing sectors in 2010, 2020 Aerospace Modelling and decision-making systems will allocate costs more effectively and enable the simplification of support systems and the reduction of overall costs. 2010/2020 aerospace sectors:  The true costs of the supply chain will be better recognised  All processes (including supply chain, etc.) will be simplified, complexity reduction will be recognised as an essential part of lean manufacturing Automotive Because of the automotive industry’s major contribution to pollution and related environmental problems, many major changes to vehicles and processes will occur by 2010, rather than 2020. A number of intermediate fuels may be introduced prior to the widespread introduction of zero-emission fuels (electric, hydrogen), although the costs of the supporting infrastructures may discourage these. Mild steel will increasingly be supplanted by light, recyclable materials. The trend of growth in vehicle size will be reversed to some extent. Cars will be modular, in terms of design, physical components and via the use of wireless electronics.

7


Automated driving systems will be available (perhaps compulsory) on major routes; as stated earlier, driverless taxis will largely replace current manned taxis. 2010/2020 automotive sectors:  Punitive legislation driving innovation (2010)  More fuels (2010)  Far more use of light recyclable materials (2010)  Downsized vehicles (2010)  More wireless electronics (2010)  Far more use of snap-fit modules (2010)  New power trains (e.g. infinitely variable transmissions on many or most vehicles) (2010)  Car supermarkets or online purchases (few if any conventional distributors) (2010)  Zero emission fuels power most cars (2020)  Advanced electronics and IT systems to implement automated driving systems and convoying (at least on motorways) (2020)

2.3 Drivers Drivers represent external forces or factors that individual enterprises cannot change, and must therefore adapt or respond to, largely in terms of their ‘external behaviours’ – those activities visible externally to the enterprise. The global drivers are the ones that can most easily be predicted when looking to the future, but the resulting sector drivers have the predominant influence on individual manufacturing enterprises.

2.3.1 Global drivers A list of some of the commonly agreed global drivers was supplied in the documentation supporting the workshop activities. The global drivers listed below are those seen as most relevant to the delegates. Demographic changes, in particular the rapidly ageing population, have several effects on the UK and other Western European countries, in particular. They are drivers in terms of triggering changed demands, e.g. for medical and leisure products and services; they are also potential obstacles to progress (see later) e.g. in terms of reducing the flow of ‘new’ labour into the workforce and in changing the training requirements. Global drivers  Increasingly global markets  Increasing rate of technology change  Mergers and acquisitions squeezing out competitors  Demography – ageing population  Political environments  Power of buyers and suppliers

2.3.2 Individual UK manufacturing sector drivers Most of these represent the ‘local’ effects of the global drivers; in this case the effects of global drivers on the aerospace and automotive manufacturing sectors.

8


Aerospace The terrorist events of September 2001 demonstrated the use of civilian aircraft as weapons of mass destruction. The aftermath of these events will continue to affect requirements and constraints placed on the design of civil aircraft, and on the design and use of associated equipment (e.g. checking in) and supporting organisations. Political factors have a considerable effect on the ordering of aircraft, perhaps more on military than civil aircraft production. Aerospace drivers:  Security and safety  Door-to-door travel times  International political relationships  Ethical and environmental issues Automotive Continuing environmentally driven legislation is forcing a stream of innovation in an industry where a single design or process fault may result in the recall of hundreds of thousands of vehicles. Therefore, at present most of these innovations are evolutionary rather than revolutionary. Price differentials across Europe (to the disadvantage of UK private customers) are being eroded via legislation and an increasing willingness of consumers to buy imported vehicles. This has also contributed to the rise of ‘car supermarkets’, which are now challenging the traditional dealership structure. Automotive drivers:  Increasingly discerning UK customers (traditionally not very discerning in the UK)  Grey import/European import market – traditional manufacturer-controlled dealer networks are increasingly under pressure  Fuel taxation  Company car taxation  Legislation, in particular environmental legislation  Poor public/mass transport systems  Congestion

2.4 Required enterprise external behaviours These behaviours (as seen by people and organisations external to the enterprise) are the required responses to changing global and sector drivers, in order to survive and prosper in the changing business world. Across industry  Offering a wide choice of products/services and an appropriate (and improving) mix of quality cost and delivery (QCD)  Increased cost and risk sharing Aerospace  Forging alliances and supply chain partners Automotive  Global co-design (already seen in terms of shared platforms, shared engines, etc.)  Offering flexible platforms

9


 

Increased flexibility down the supply chain – offering consumers new ways of obtaining and using personal transport Rapid response to take advantage of legislative changes (e.g. to enable users to benefit from low tax category vehicles)

2.5 Required enterprise internal characteristics These are the characteristics of the enterprise required in order to deliver the (above) external behaviours cost-effectively. Across industry:  Customer-driven design/mass customisation  Systematic elimination of waste  Focussing on the key processes:  Obtaining customer orders  Product introduction  Order (completion and) delivery  Supply chain  Improved innovation capability to:  Exploit in-house inventions  Access outside inventions/patents  Carry out technology trading  Global teaming capability to take advantage of best practice partners Aerospace:  Lean principles in all processes, not just internal manufacturing processes Automotive:  True just-in-time supply chains to minimise the whole supply chain cost (still not universally the case)

2.6 Obstacles Although manufacturing industry needs to adapt its behaviours and characteristics to respond to changing global and sector drivers, there are obstacles or barriers that reduce its ability to respond.

2.6.1 UK manufacturing industry obstacles Although there are increasing numbers of young qualified people emerging from the UK higher and further education system, only a small and declining proportion of these have skills that are appropriate for the manufacturing sector. The engineering profession has a low status compared to other professions; hence, it is the profession of first choice for few young people. There are no nationally recognised living role models, and the professional engineering institutions have been unable to raise the status of engineers within society, either directly or indirectly. Because of the above factors, most UK manufacturing sectors are unable to retain sufficient numbers of qualified, trained and skilled staff to perform well against international competitors. Current UK accounting practice undervalues knowledge, intellectual property rights and research & development. Directors, typically facing relatively short contracts and correspondingly short periods in which to ‘make their mark’, are all too often tempted to cut back activities with long term benefits, e.g. training and research, as these do not appear on the

10


balance sheet. Most UK industrial sectors are poor in these areas compared to their main international competitors. Attention was drawn by one of the groups to the need to prove that manufacturing will remain important to UK plc, rather than to assume that it is the case. This issue had provoked considerable debate within the group during the breakout sessions and it was discussed further at both the second and the third (and final) plenary presentation sessions. UK industry obstacles to progress:  Lack of appropriately qualified and trained staff:  Low social status of engineers is a barrier to recruiting talent into the profession  Professional institutions failing to represent engineers in the pecking order  Lack of public awareness of what engineers are and what they do – few role models to follow (either in the form of public figures or relatives/acquaintances)  Inadequate or inappropriate accounting practices  Inadequate performance measures  Lack of understanding of business processes  Directors driven by their own agendas or short term goals  Inadequate tax incentives for research & development and capital investment  Restrictions on the expansion of infrastructures

2.6.2 Sector-specific obstacles Aerospace Aerospace supply chains are extremely complex; current costing systems do not typically take into account all the cost factors associated with supply chain overheads. As a result, many decisions result in high costs, quality problems and poor delivery performance. Current information technology systems exacerbate these problems in some cases. 2001 UK aerospace sector obstacles:  Inappropriate information technology systems (MRP/ERP, etc.)  Lack of engineers (see “UK manufacturing industry obstacles”, above)  Costing models that encourage poor make-or-buy and supply chain-related decisions  Failure to distinguish between paradigms/targets and the tools/techniques that are employed to achieve them:  When moving on to the next ‘new approach’, the beneficial aspects of previous activities are often lost  Tools and techniques are often used too myopically, to improve activities from which relatively little extra cost can be extracted compared to elsewhere  Market size – UK is too small an economy  Restrictions on the ability to expand the infrastructure affects potential sales 2001 UK automotive sector obstacles:  Lack of customer focus – preconceptions as to what the customer wants  Unwillingness to commit resources to sort out the detail that is essential to success  Legislation:  Increased taxation  Environment-driven constraints

11


2.7 Key enablers The primary purpose of these enablers is to overcome obstacles (or barriers) to the developments needed by enterprises to meet the challenges of the global and sector drivers that they face now and in the future. Across UK industry in general:  Mechanisms for valuing intellectual property:  Government  Financial institutions  Industry  Knowledge supply systems to enable the identification, acquisition and exploitation of knowledge  The development and application of effective mechanisms to transfer best practice across industries  Active (long term) collaboration between universities and industry  The definition and promotion of what manufacturing and engineering really are, and what they do for the UK  The development and improvement of manufacturing, engineering and product standards Sector-specific enablers Aerospace:  Paradigms and techniques:  Lean manufacturing – as in UK-LAI  Systematic waste elimination  Accurate costing models for supply chain evaluation and planning Automotive: Most of the automotive sector enablers are common to other manufacturing sectors.

2.8 Recommendations for action Government organisations receive conflicting and sometimes inadequately supported messages from manufacturing industry, due in part to the differing needs of each sector. Even if sector differences cannot be resolved, senior government departments and politicians need to be aware of the ramifications for each sector of various governmental actions (and inactions). University engineering manufacturing-related research will be increasingly dominated by the work of Innovative Manufacturing Research Centres (IMRCs). It is important that a national/international overview is maintained; manufacturing-related professors can provide this overview and offer leadership. It has been claimed for many years that engineering and manufacturing are undervalued in the UK. It is proposed that work should be done (a) to formalise engineering as a discipline (and profession) with standard terms and definitions, and (b) to establish the contributions of manufacturing and engineering to the UK in quantitative terms. Much of UK international standardisation work has been carried out as an adjunct to other work; given the vital importance of appropriate standards to the UK, it is important that this work receives adequate long term funding to enable the build up and exploitation of expertise in this area. 12


The individual recommendations for action, which include points raised during the plenary presentations, are listed below:  



 

 

Senior manufacturing industrialists should represent manufacturing/engineering interests consistently when dealing with politicians Manufacturing-related professors should team up to provide research leadership, e.g.:  To act as an integrating mechanism and a focus for the UK academic manufacturing research  To provide an umbrella for UK manufacturing research and a conduit for university researchers (including those in the new IMRCs) to meet and disseminate ideas and information  To provide strategic input into research and collaborations issues, including A forum should be created for the following tasks:  Naming/renaming the manufacturing/engineering disciplines, and defining them and what the people in those disciplines do – in a format that enables explanation in thirty seconds  Developing a common language (including definitions of terms for associated activities and concepts) A multi-disciplinary team (e.g. including industrialists, engineering academics, economists) should be created to tackle the question “Is manufacturing important?” and to answer the question factually, in economic, social, quantitative terms A national plan should be defined for disseminating current best practice and new developments:  Potentially as part of a UK-wide long-term continuous improvement strategy or initiative  Consideration should be given to how best practice can be packaged for optimum success in assimilation (these packages will vary between sectors – similar paradigms and objectives, differing presentation and tools) UK government agencies should provide core long term national funding of UKbased international standardisation work, including the support of personnel to get ‘up to speed’ and to contribute to standardisation activities worldwide A move towards higher value-added manufacture should be encouraged – it is not clear at this stage how that would be achieved (perhaps via product development advisory services)

13


3

FURTHER NNGME-RELATED ACTIVITIES

As stated elsewhere in this report, the order of workshop activities, the set of tasks and supporting documentation were all based on the draft NNGME framework. As part of the third facilitated breakout session, delegates were asked to consider the NNGME process, and the further activities in which the NNGME could be involved. Outputs from this third session and associated discussions with delegates are reported in this section. Discussions during the first two workshop group activities also produced some comments with regard to the application of the framework and the scope of the network. These have also been reported in this section.

3.1 Filling the gaps in the NNGME framework and process The framework encourages a logical flow of activities in a similar manner to other ‘next generation’ frameworks. However, it and most other frameworks fail to capture adequately the linkages between individual elements of the various stages of activity; for example, how individual drivers map to individual external behaviours. In addition, the connections between the global drivers and views of the future are not formalised. Some of the group discussions illustrated the fact that a driver is one of perhaps several roles played by an external object or event. As an example, demographic changes act as global drivers and as potential obstacles (or barriers) to change by reducing the supply of ‘new’ workers. The globalisation of skills could be regarded as a driver, or as an enabler (from an enterprise’s viewpoint). Therefore, we need to separate these functions in the process (drivers, external behaviours, etc.) from the objects or events that cause them. Some of the points are summarised below: 

Linking future scenarios to global and sector drivers



Linking global drivers to sector-specific drivers:  Global drivers are, by definition very general; however, they are the source, separately or jointly, of the majority of the sector-specific drivers  The framework/process does not assist the capture of such relationships  It is the sector-specific drivers that are the basis for detailed strategic planning Non-level playing field:  Consideration of the effects of this needs to be part of the framework or process, as it effects competitiveness Although the NNGME framework is as yet incomplete, it already appears sufficiently complex that a simplified version is typically used for explanation; it would benefit from encapsulation in an appropriate software system

 

3.2 Next steps for the network The workshop demonstrated that there is considerable interest in, and importance attached to, the process of looking forward and attempting to steer manufacturing on a course to prosper in the potential futures. There is therefore a role into the future for a framework and process such as that of the NNGME. The main points are summarised below:  

Sell the concept of the framework as a roadmap A UK futurist (or futurologist) role/group/activity is required:  To look for, evaluate and advise on emerging opportunities and threats to the manufacturing sector

14


 

 A form of ‘TechWatch’ for UK plc  This should be pursued by the network, although the final implementation of this function may be external to the network Contribute towards increasing government recognition for engineering-based manufacture Hold a further NNGME workshop, for the food and pharmaceutical sectors

15


4

KEY MESSAGES AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION

Manufacturing in general and engineering in particular are undervalued activities in UK society. This is damaging for the UK economy, and concerted action should be taken to rectify the situation. The key points are summarised below:  A forum should be created to formally define attributes and characteristics of the engineering profession and to consider how to gain recognition (perhaps in part via legal statute) on par with that of other professions1.  A multi-disciplinary team should be created to assess the contribution of manufacturing to UK plc in quantitative terms UK academic research remains of a high standard; it is however important that manufacturing-related research is co-ordinated and focussed appropriately. The UK must improve dissemination, not only to the best, but also to the rest of industry – best practice must be exploited more quickly and widely than is at present the case. The key points are summarised below:  UK manufacturing professors should team up to provide research leadership and focus  A national plan should be defined for disseminating current best practice and new developments to UK organisations:  Paradigms such as lean manufacturing should be considered as a potential basis for the this work  Initiatives such as UK-LAI should be assessed as to their potential as models for long-term improvement programmes  Process improvement best practice should be applied to manufacturing and business processes alike  It will be necessary to separate the key paradigms from the detailed tools and techniques in order to be able to adapt the paradigms to each industrial sector and size of enterprise  Such a best practice plan is not limited to the manufacturing sector  UK government agencies should provide core long term national funding of UKbased international standardisation work, including the support of personnel to get ‘up to speed’ and to contribute to standardisation activities worldwide – this work is an overlooked contributor to exploitable research and industrial success The NNGME framework and process have proved useful as a basis for a UK plc ‘roadmap’, but should be further developed to improve linkages between framework processes or activities, in particular links between drivers and potential future worlds. The NNGME workshop should be repeated for other manufacturing-related sectors. Sections 2.8 and 3 contain detailed recommendations for action.

1

The new Engineering & Technology Board (ETB) and Engineering Council (UK) (ECUK) may be logical partners in this activity.

16


ANNEXES ANNEX A: LIST OF ATTENDEES Title

First Name

Last Name

Miss

Fai

Assakul

Professor

Peter

Barrar

Mr

Neil

Bateman

Mr

Colin

Birtwhistle

Mr

Chris

Cooper

Dr

Kenny

Dalgarno

Dr

Phil

Dickens

Dr

Richard

Farr

Organisation Institute for Manufacturing Department of Engineering University of Cambridge Mill Lane Cambridge CB2 1RX Manchester Business School University of Manchester Booth Street West Manchester M15 6PB EPSRC Polaris House North Star Avenue Swindon SN2 1ET SBAC Duxbury House 60 Petty France Victoria London SW1H 9EU BAE Systems School of Mechanical Engineering University of Leeds Woodhouse Lane Leeds L52 9JT School of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering Loughborough University Ashby Road Loughborough LE11 3TU School of Mechanical, Materials, Manufacturing Engineering and Management University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD

17


Mr

Cliff

Fowkes

Mr

John

Garside

Professor

Nabil

Gindy

Mr

Brian

Ginty

Dr

Gerry

Greensmith

Professor

Mike

Gregory

Dr

Andrew

Heap

18

Matra BAE Dynamics PB 5271 Six Hills Way Stevenage Hertfordshire SG1 2DA Warwick Manufacturing Group International Manufacturing Centre University of Warwick Coventry CV4 7AL Warwick University School of Mechanical, Materials, Manufacturing Engineering and Management University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD BAE Systems Salmesbury Aerodrome S418E Balderstone Blackburn Lancashire BB2 7LF BOC Edwards Ltd York Road Burgess Hill Sussex RH15 9TT Institute for Manufacturing Department of Engineering University of Cambridge Mill Lane Cambridge CB2 1RX School of Mechanical, Materials, Manufacturing Engineering and Management University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD


Mr

Allan

Hodgson

Dr

Bart

MacCarthy

Mr

Ian

McManus

Mr

Gerry

Robinson

Mr

John

Victory

Professor

Richard

Weston

Dr

Andrew

White

19

School of Mechanical, Materials, Manufacturing Engineering and Management University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD School of Mechanical, Materials, Manufacturing Engineering and Management University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD BAE Systems 12 The Crescent Cherry Tree Blackburn BB2 5NE School of Mechanical, Materials, Manufacturing Engineering and Management University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD Ford UK Room 15-4A C06 A Dunton Engineering Centre Laindon Basildon Essex SS15 6EE School of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering Loughborough University Ashby Road Loughborough LE11 3TU CCLT Cranfield School of Management Cranfield University Bedford MK43 0AL


Mr

Tony

Wilkinson

20

3M Healthcare Ltd. 3M House Morley Street Loughborough Leicestershire LE11 1EP


ANNEX B: BREAKOUT GROUPS The groups below are those organised on the first day; these changed somewhat on the second day due to leavers and new arrivals. There were two automotive groups and one aerospace group. Automotive Group 1 Fai Assakul Kenny Dalgarno Phil Dickens Cliff Fowkes John Garside Gerry Greensmith Andrew White Automotive Group 2 Chris Cooper Richard Farr Brian Ginty Gerry Robinson John Victory Tony Wilkinson Aerospace Group This group concentrated primarily on civil, rather than military aerospace. Peter Barrar Colin Birtwhistle Nabil Gindy Mike Gregory Andrew Heap Ian McManus Richard Weston

21


ANNEX C: WORKSHOP AGENDA Network in Next Generation Manufacturing Enterprises Workshop The Aerospace and Automotive Sectors 13th/14th December 2001 Venue: Arts Centre, University of Nottingham

AGENDA Thursday 13th December 10.00am – 10.15am

Arrival and coffee.

10.15am – 10.30am

Introduction to the workshop – Professor Nabil Gindy

10.30am – 11.00am

The NNGME framework(s) – Allan Hodgson

11.00am – 12.00pm

Presentations on the challenges in key industries based round the NNGME framework: - Aerospace – Chris Cooper of BAE Systems - Automotive – John Victory of Ford UK

12.00pm – 12.30pm

Introduction to the facilitated “breakout group” discussions – activities and outputs

12.30pm – 1.30pm

Lunch

1.30pm – 3.00pm

Facilitated “breakout group” discussions: - The world of 2020 - What will manufacturing (or production) encompass in 2020? - Sector “picture” (products, structure, etc.), 2001, 2010, 2020

3.00pm – 3.30pm

Presentations of summary findings

3.30pm – 3.45pm

Tea/coffee

3.45pm – 5.00pm

Facilitated “breakout group” discussions: - Global, UK and sector drivers - Required (external & internal) responses and obstacles

5.00pm – 5.30pm 7.30pm

Presentations of summary findings Dinner at Mr Man’s Restaurant, Wollaton Park, Nottingham

Friday 14th December 9.00am – 9.15am

Coffee

9.15am – 9.30am

Summary of the previous day’s output

9.30am – 10.00am

Supporting UK 2020 manufacturing 2020 research – Neil Bateman of EPSRC

10.00am – 11.15am

Facilitated “breakout group” discussions: - Enablers for success, recommendations for action - Filling in the gaps in the NNGME framework(s) - Identifying the next steps for the network

10.30am – 11.00am

Coffee available

11.15am – 11.45pm

Presentations of summary findings

11.45pm – 12.00pm

Closing summary – Professor Nabil Gindy

22


ANNEX D: BREAKOUT SESSION DOCUMENTATION Slides were provided with appropriate pre-printed headings for each group for each session, in order to minimise presentation preparation time and to ensure some commonality of style and coverage. Examples of these slides are reproduced for the first breakout session. First Facilitated Breakout Session (Thursday)

The Sector Pictures (90 minutes) For each of the following topics, it may be found useful for individual group members to spend five minutes or so putting down their own thoughts before congregating for a general discussion. There is some intentional overlap in the following sections in order to encourage evaluation from several viewpoints. 1. The world of 2020 What do you see as potential 2020 …  Changes in lifestyles,  New technologies & their effects,  New products & services,  New infrastructures (company-wide and/or country/worldwide),  New international standards, de-facto standards,  New or increasing constraints? 2. What will (UK) manufacturing/production, as a whole, be like in 2020?  

What will it encompass (more service, more life-cycle, more software, more what, less what)? In other words, will (should) it be redefined to be broader than it is now? What will manufacturing (as defined NOW) represent as a proportion of GDP?

See ‘Background Information’, (i). 3. The picture in 2001, 2010 and 2020 for your sector Develop sector “pictures” for 2001, 2010 and 2020, e.g. in terms of the following:  Products and/or services and relevant info (e.g. quantities, size, speed, technologies),  Processes (manufacturing, ordering, payment, etc.) and materials,  Structures (including tier 1, 2, 3, nationally or internationally as appropriate, rationalisation, new competitors, workforce size, etc.) and infrastructures. Use sketches, if appropriate, e.g., to show industry structures or tiers, etc. Some ‘as-is’ information is provided on a number of sectors in ‘Background Information’, (ii). 4. Comments on other related issues Further issues and factors that you consider relevant to this session. Please spend a maximum of five minutes plus one overhead slide (supplied) on this point, or leave the slide blank!

23


First Facilitated Breakout Session (Thursday)

Background Information (i) Manufacturing as a proportion of UK GDP The following figures were taken from those quoted in a House of Lords debate on 25 October 2001:  1973: 33%  1999: 19.2% (16.1% in the USA) (ii) ‘As-is’ information and some predictions on several manufacturing sectors Infrastructures are not necessarily sector-specific, but still essential. It is likely that new physical, abstract and informational infrastructures will develop, often layered. The aerospace sector The UK aerospace industry employs approximately 120,000 people (150,000+ in 1998) and exports three-quarters of its output. It contributes over 10% of UK manufacturing output and 2% of GDP. The UK aerospace industry is 3rd largest in the Western World. The supply chain is complex, with 1st, 2nd and 3rd tier suppliers; control of process and product quality is vital. There are currently several ‘lean aerospace’ initiatives (UK, USA, Europe), attempting to extract more sustenance out of increasingly competitive contracts. Useful websites and web pages: http://www.tradepartners.gov.uk/aerospace/profile/index/overview.shtml A small sample from the BT technology timeline (© British Telecommunications plc): Blimp cargolifters carrying 160 tons 6000 miles at 60mph

2004

Hydrogen-fuelled executive jets

2005

Superblimp troop carriers carrying 500 tons

2006

High speed civil transport supersonic jet, 300 passengers, 1500mph

2010

Flying wing planes carrying 1000 passengers 6000 miles at 600mph

2020

The automotive sector: The UK automotive industry employs over 800,000 people, has an annual turnover approximately £40 billion (cars £23 billion), and contributes approximately 17% of UK manufacturing output, 3.5% of GDP and 9% of UK exports. In 1999, the UK was 7th largest producer in the World, with 1.8 million cars, compared to Japan (no.1) with over 8 million, and total global production of approximately 40 million cars. Useful websites and web pages: http://www.tradepartners.gov.uk/automotive/profile/index/overview.shtml http://www.autoindustry.co.uk - some useful statistics A small sample from the BT technology timeline (© British Telecommunications plc):

24


Automated highway prototype

2002

Cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells

2004

Urban car co-pilot (autopilot?)

2004

Driverless truck convoys using electronic tow bar

2018

Need to book time slots to use some key roads

2020

The food and drink sector The UK food and drink sector has an annual turnover of £56 billion and employs over 3 million people (including the relevant retail sub-sectors). The total value of food and drink exports in 1998 was £9 billion, primary export markets for the UK being Europe, USA and Japan. Useful websites and web pages: http://www.tradepartners.gov.uk/food/profile/index/overview.shtml The IT, electronics and communication sector The UK IT, electronics and communications (ITEC) sector had an annual turnover of approximately £180 billion, 8.6% of GDP in 1998, and is the 5th largest in the world. It is one of the UK's major manufacturing industries, employing over 330,000 people. Over 99% of ITEC companies are SMEs. Multinational companies in the UK manufacture personal computers and other electronic hardware for the European market. The UK is Europe's largest exporter of electronic dataprocessing systems and second-largest exporter of electronics. The main export markets include USA and the northern countries of the European Union. However, increasing opportunities are arising in emerging economies such as China and India. Useful websites and web pages: http://www.tradepartners.gov.uk/itelectronics/profile/index/overview.shtml A small sample from the BT technology timeline (© British Telecommunications plc): Chips with clock speed of 10 GHz

2003

DNA computer

2012

Intelligent materials with sensors, storage and effectors

2015

AI technology imitating thinking processes of the brain

2018

Materials exhibiting superconductivity at room temperature

2020

The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector The UK pharmaceutical industry employs approximately 60,000 people, of whom 20,000 are involved in research and development. The UK pharmaceutical sector is 5th largest in the world by total sales (7% of world sales) after the USA, Japan, Germany and France. It is also the UK's third biggest earner in terms of trade surplus (£2.3 billion in 1997). Although the UK itself represents only 3% of the world market in pharmaceuticals, the UK is the third largest direct exporter of pharmaceuticals, has the third largest world trade surplus and accounts for 10% of world pharmaceutical R&D 25


expenditure. Five of the world's top 20 best-selling drugs were developed in British laboratories. In 1997, 'medicinal and pharmaceutical products' was the UK's eleventh largest exporting sector, with exports of £5.5 billion. UK pharmaceutical companies spend up to 30% of sales on R&D. A significant and timeconsuming part of this includes phase 1, 2 & 3 trials. Production includes the mixing, processing, production of tablets, capsules, etc., and packaging – the latter is in many cases the source of most variants in the product. An increasing number of pharmaceutical treatments require delivery via the lungs, and there is significant design, development and manufacturing work in the UK associated with reliable, low cost devices to achieve this. US pharmaceutical companies dominate both production and market share in the UK, although the UK-owned companies are also powerful on a worldwide basis. The US pharmaceuticals market was almost $130 billion in 1997-98, with US investment in R&D expected to rise to 21% in 1999. Biotechnology is concerned with the application of knowledge about organisms, and their building blocks to industrial processes, products and services. UK biotechnology companies are developing and exploiting biotechnology applications for a wide range of industries including pharmaceuticals, diagnostics, chemicals, food, agriculture and the environment. The UK has approximately 550 bioscience-related companies, which in total employ in excess of 40,000 people. Amongst these companies, there are approximately 250 specialist biotechnology companies, the largest number in Europe. The European market for biotechnology-related goods and services is valued at over £30 billion and is expected to grow to more than £100 billion by the middle of the decade. As the UK diagnostics market (worth approximately £500 million) is only the fifth largest in Europe, the 230 or so diagnostics companies in the UK have to export in order to survive and grow. Demographics (ageing populations) and other factors will offer opportunities for biotechnology-based businesses to increase substantially their global turnover during the current decade. Useful websites and web pages: http://www.tradepartners.gov.uk/biotechnology/profile/index/overview.shtml http://www.bioindustry.org/index.shtml A small sample from the BT technology timeline (© British Telecommunications plc): Life expectancy at birth of over 100, possibly even 130

2000

Smart pills with chip dispensing drugs

2003

Devices roaming within blood vessels under own power

2010

Custom (GM) foods for particular medical conditions will exist

2015

Individual's genome forms part of his/her medical record

2015

Slides provided for the first facilitated breakout session are reproduced on the following pages. Pre-prepared slides were also provided for the second and third sessions.

26


1. The world of 2020

Group & sector:

2. UK mfrg (or prod’n) in 2020

Group & sector: What will manufacturing (or production) encompass in 2020?

What will manufacturing (in terms of its current meaning) represent as a proportion of GDP in 2020?

27


3A. Sector products and/or services

Group & sector:

2001:

2010:

2020:

3B. Sector processes and technologies 2001:

2010:

2020:

28

Group & sector:


3C. Sector structures/infrastructures

Group & sector:

2001:

2010:

2020:

4. Comments on other related issues

29

Group & sector:


Second Facilitated Breakout Session (Thursday)

Identifying the Drivers, Responses & Barriers (75 minutes) 1. Identify the global drivers The main forces or factors for change that affect the developed and developing world. See ‘Background Information’, (i). 2. Identify the main UK drivers, and those KEY drivers for your sector The external forces or factors that particularly effect the UK and specific UK manufacturing sectors. They could just be a subset of the global drivers, or UK-specific, sector-specific drivers. 3. What are the key responses to the above drivers (in terms of ‘external behaviours’) that companies in your sector must make? See ‘Background Information’, (ii). 4. How must companies in your sector change or develop their ‘internal characteristics’? See ‘Background Information’, (iii). 5. BRIEFLY, what are the major obstacles to achieving the above changes or behaviours, in your sector? See ‘Background Information’, (iv).

30



Background Information (i)

Global drivers

There is much commonality in the external global drivers recognised by many researchers and industrial organisations as affecting most manufacturing enterprises to varying degrees. The global drivers selected at present for the project are listed below:         

Global access to information and knowledge Increasing customer/stakeholder expectations Markets & competition becoming globalised Access to technology becoming globalised Increasing rate of technological change Increasingly global distribution of skills (Long term convergence of standards of living) Increasing level of environmental constraints and associated legislation Major demographic changes

These should only be taken as a starting point – develop or change them as you see fit, particularly for individual sectors. (ii)

External behaviours

These are very general for the ‘UK plc’ case; suggested areas or categories of external behaviour are listed below:  Customer-related – e.g. range, customisation, quality/cost/delivery, payment methods, lifecycle support, standardisation, ...  Global market-related  Supplier-related  Investor-related  Legislation-related  Environment-related As stated earlier, these should only be taken as a starting point or set of examples – change them as you see fit. (iii)

Internal characteristics

In order to implement effective external behaviours, companies must develop appropriate (appropriately responsive?) internal characteristics; the characteristics listed below are very general for the case of ‘UK plc’:  Responsive production systems  Responsive product introduction systems  Responsive human resources  Responsive organisational practices and cultures  Teaming capability  Integrated enterprise systems As stated earlier, these should only be taken as a starting point or set of examples – change them as you see fit.

31


(iv)

Obstacles

Obstacles (or barriers) to the achievement of appropriate characteristics and behaviour could include (for example) the following:  Workforce education – level & subject areas,  Finance – availability & interest rates,  Inadequate science/eng/technology base,  Lack of infrastructure,  Islands of information or automation,  Rigid (functional) organisations, and/or  Inadequate supply chains.

32


Third Facilitated Breakout Session (Friday)

Gaps, Recommendations & Next Steps (75 minutes) 1. Key enablers or imperatives See ‘Background Information’, (i). 2. Key recommendations for action See ‘Background Information’, (ii). 3. Filling in the gaps and extending the NNGME framework At present, the NNGME framework is primarily a guide to brainstorming activities:  How can it be improved? In particular, how can we make sure that we consider radical changes, as well as incremental changes or extrapolations?  Are there any process modelling or mapping tools, knowledge capture tools that would enable us to do the following?  Model, examine and determine probabilities of future scenarios  Determine robust configurations of resources (workforce, physical, knowledge, organisational, etc.)  Capture that work sufficiently well to enable others to re-evaluate assumptions and conclusions at a later date See ‘Background Information’, (iii) – 1 & 2, for flow diagrams of the framework. 4. Next steps for the network Would it be beneficial to extend the life of the network (perhaps in a revised form) and to plan various forms of activity? If so, what forms of activity? See ‘Background Information’, (iv).

33



Background Information (i) Key enablers or imperatives for your sector Imperatives or enablers are those capabilities or features that are regarded as key to the achievement of the internal characteristics associated with successful, competitive external behaviour in manufacturing companies, thus enabling long-term survival. They could include, for example, the development, training or implementation (as appropriate) to achieve some of the some of the following:  Rapid product and process realisation systems  Flexible, knowledge-driven workforce  Formal knowledge supply systems  Change management processes (running continuously)  Innovation management processes (running continuously)  Integrated enterprise-wide information systems  Enterprise-wide modelling and simulation systems  Strategic supply relationships For the purpose of this activity, the above ‘enablers’ are only presented as examples for this activity, not recommendations. (ii) Key recommendations for action Forms of action recommendations could relate, for example, to the following areas:  Education & training.  Specific research or development topics.  Infrastructural research, developments or implementations.  Support for standards-related work. The above are only presented as examples, not recommendations. Organisations to whom recommendations could apply include:  UK government and EU agencies (e.g. in the areas of education, training, research, development, infrastructure, legislation).  Sector-specific organisations.  Individual enterprises (perhaps less relevant here).

34


(iii)

1. The GENERIC framework

2. The ENTERPRISE-SPECIFIC framework 1A. Global drivers

1B. Sector and enterprise-specific drivers

- the international forces (technological competitive, etc.) that will shape the future business environment.

- the external influences specific to this sector, this enterprise.

2A. Desirable external behaviours for this enterprise

2B. Enterprise 'as-is' external behaviours

- required to respond to external drivers (global, sector, enterprise).

gap analysis 3A. Potential internal characteristics

4. Internal characteristics selected for this enterprise (including business processes)

3D. Enterprise 'as-is' internal characteristics incl. business processes

3B. Obstacles to pot'l internal characteristics 3C. Enablers - that can overcome or ameliorate obstacles.

- required to achieve the appropriate external behaviours and survive the transition.

5. Key enablers for this enterprise 6A. Enterprise action plans - to include plans for finance, marketing, supply, products & services, physical resources, human resources, organisation structures, business processes, metrics, benchmarks, IT support and other relevant factors.

6B. Teaching/training topics and methods

6C. Joint academic/industry research topics

6D. Governmentsponsored action plans

...that will be beneficial to this enterprise, this sector.

35


(iv)Next steps for the network Would it be beneficial to extend the life of the network and plan various forms of activity? The following are quoted as examples:  One-off, occasional or annual ‘telescope-to-the-future’ activities including, for example:  Scenario-planning  Workshops with professional ‘futurists’ (USA) or ‘futurologists’ (UK), e.g. BT’s futurologist, Ian Pearson  Consider a proposal for a Manufacturing 2020 ‘umbrella’ research initiative or forum, open to manufacturing-related researchers (including food processing & pharmaceuticals) and collaborating groups from other disciplines (e.g. ergonomics, knowledge representation, learning theory)

36


ANNEX E: BREAKOUT SESSION RESPONSES This annex includes word-processed copies of the slides that were produced during the facilitated group breakout sessions and presented during the immediately following plenary sessions. First Facilitated Breakout Session (Thursday)

The Sector Pictures (90 minutes)

Slides from the first breakout session (Thursday) - The Sector Pictures (90 minutes)

Session 1 (Thursday), 1st group Group & Sector: 1 - AUTOMOTIVE

1. The world of 2020      

More households, less people Non-ownership, on demand/mood appropriate transport Utilisation ... auto-taxi Size flexibility – vehicles clip together Anti-globalisation / brand prestige Environmental factors

2. UK manufacturing (or prod’n) in 2020 Group & Sector: 1 - AUTOMOTIVE What will manufacturing (or production) encompass in 2020?       

Foreign owned global manufacturers close to point of sale More stuff being consumed so more manufacturing Sealed for life / re-cycle / re-manufacture / upgrade Environment argument will take time to convince but prove powerful Divergence of skill:  high skill system/ module design  low skill waste free manufacture Toyota production system the norm - just-in-time/on demand Local/tailored/customisation

What will manufacturing (in terms of its current meaning) represent as a proportion of GDP in 2020? 1973 33% 

1999 19.2%

2020 10%

Output -> Costs ->

Manufacturing productivity up and up as waste taken out

3A. Sector Products and/or services Group & Sector: 1 - AUTOMOTIVE 2001:  I C Engines Types MPV, 4x4, Saloon, Town, Commercial

37


  

Processes – Toyota methods Dealerships, traditional materials, 2nd hand cars Structures – traditional functions – international

2010:       

Fuels change, powertrains, flexible, downsizing vehicles Performance? Punitive legislation? Underground? Processes – snap fit modules TPS – all sector Materials – lighter, re-cycling Supermarket / on line, no dealers -> mass customisation Specialists make modules, high-paid contract assembly: low pay

2020:      

Zero emissions, clean fuels Auto driving systems Convoy systems Entertainment centre Modular Sealed for life: recycle

Pollution: noise, fumes

Session 1 (Thursday), 2nd group 1. The world of 2020

Group & Sector: 2 (RED) - AUTOMOTIVE



LIFE STYLE CHANGE  More division, home working, changing travel  More consumer goods, mass customisation  More depend on IT & systems  More reskilling



NEW TECH  Smart material, embedded sensors and activators  Integrated travel systems  Replacement body parts  Life – IT systems and cyber-crime



NEW PRODUCTS/SERVICES  Customer-driven design & mass customisation  More choices



INFRASTRUCTURE  Global co-design  More self-employment  Global control (government/corporation)



NEW CONSTRAINTS  Inclusion of disadvantaged groups 38


2. UK manufacturing (or prod’n) in 2020Group & Sector: 2 (RED) - AUTOMOTIVE What will manufacturing (or production) encompass in 2020?       

Local mass customisation Control of manufacturing may be remote Greater dependency on continuous revenue streams Value Identified in end effect rather than product Distributed manufacturing Re-configurable manufacturing Manufacturing at point of sale (less import/export)

What will manufacturing (in terms of its current meaning) represent as a proportion of GDP in 2020?       

More local customisation More inward investment (English language) Hire & fire, interest rates Political realisation? Government inaction Continued unpopularity of engineering ………………internals pullout

3A. Sector Products and/or services Group & Sector: 2 (RED) - AUTOMOTIVE 2001:  Bluetooth and technical integration  Recreation products in 2010:  Intel personal devices for Life 3B. Sector Processes & Technologies 2001:    

Recycling Self-diagnostic Upgradeable products Alt. englogy? electronics

2010:      

Integrated information More diesel / LPG Co-design of process & product Integrated products More plastics Wireless electronics


39


2020:  Self-configuring systems 3C. Sector Structures & Infrastructures Group & Sector: 2 (RED) - AUTOMOTIVE 2001:     

Manual labour Virtual networks Companies with technology Collaboration & Partnership Self-organising systems

4. Comments on other related issues    


Rising energy costs Changing climate More security Personal transport but not necessarily owned

Session 1 (Thursday), 3rd group Group & Sector: 3 - AERO – CIVIL

1. The world of 2020 

LIFE STYLE CHANGE  Demographics – people living longer  More leisure time (or demanding more)  Working from home.



NEW TECHNOLOGIES/PRODUCTS  Smaller craft getting us from where we are to where we want to be  Can we do it safely? Air corridors  Big planes still around, big hubs, Airport rage  Faster “air” time – speed (little impact on point to point)



NEW INFRASTRUCTURES More landing zones  Traffic Control



CONSTRAINTS  Lack of wealth  ‘Old gits’ – no pensions  ‘Young thieving druggies’

2. UK manufacturing (or prod’n) in 2020 Group & Sector: 3 - AERO – CIVIL What will manufacturing (or production) encompass in 2020? 

NEW MEASURES  True cost of spaghetti world

40


    

Manufacturing back in “vogue” Value streams – which ones? Full understanding along the stream – modelling Design to cost Simple processes – manage and reduce complexity

What will manufacturing (in terms of its current meaning) represent as a proportion of GDPin 2020?   

If we do nothing -

41



Identifying the Drivers, Responses & Barriers (75 minutes) Session 2 (Thursday), 1st group 1. Global Drivers  

Group & Sector: 1 - AUTO

GLOBAL MARKETS – do they (will they) really exist? Availability of skills globally is not a driver

2. Main UK & sector-specific drivers


(Comment: AUTO sector drivers –some, at least, are external behaviours or obstacles?)          

FUEL COST, TAXATION --> Offer alternative fuels, transparency CONGESTION --> Offer flexible vehicle platforms LEGISLATION --> Lobbying, innovation, leave the sector EURO CURRENCY --> Local sourcing or leave POOR QUALITY MASS TRANSPORT --> Exploit (sell more cars) POOR ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE INCREASINGLY DISCERNING UK CUSTOMERS GREY IMPORTS, COMPANY CARS ... SECOND HAND MARKET--> Offer better-featured, lower cost cars every year RIP-OFF BRITAIN --> Perhaps the cars manufacturers like it that way?

3. Key external behaviours for this sector


(Comment: See UK/sector drivers, above) 4. Key internal characteristics for this sector


5. Obstacles (barriers) to key characteristics & behaviours in this sector  

1 - AUTO

Lack of customer focus - preconceptions within the industry as to what the customer wants Proactive research (Comment: Also, see UK/sector drivers above)

Session 2 (Thursday), 2nd group 1. Global Drivers


42






  

Exploit inventions Ensure access to outside inventions Cost & risk sharing (to increase market share) Group & Sector: 2 - AUTO

4. Key internal characteristics for this sector

5. Obstacles (barriers) to key char’s & behaviours in this sector      

2 - AUTO

Existing accounting systems M.D.’s driven by their own agendas Lack of understanding of business process Unwillingness to commit resources to sort out detail Lack of tax incentives for R&D, capital investment Poor performance measures

Session 2 (Thursday), 3rd group Group & Sector: 3 – AERO - CIVIL

1. Global Drivers        

Markets Managing & evaluating risk Alliances & supply chain Political environment Ethical aspects Power of buyers & suppliers Scale & scope Technology Group & Sector: 3 – AERO - CIVIL


‘Negative drivers’        

Low social status of ‘engineer’ is a barrier to encouraging talent into the profession Entry into the Euro or US$ - UK is too small an economy to compete Professional institutions are failing to represent the engineers in the pecking order Lack of public awareness and understanding No role model (alive) Restriction on expanding the infrastructure Current accounting processes ERP & MRP

43


Group & Sector: 3 – AERO - CIVIL


These should be treated as ‘enablers’ (see Session 3)    

UK-LAI joint government & industry project Transfer of best practice across industries Systematic elimination of waste NACAM

4. Key internal characteristics for this sector

Group & Sector: 3 – AERO - CIVIL

5. Obstacles (barriers) to key char’s & behaviours in this sector     

3 – AERO - CIVIL

Low social status of ‘Engineer’ is a barrier to recruiting talent into the profession. Professional institutions failing to represent the engineers in the pecking order Lack of public awareness and understanding No (living) engineering role models ERP/MRP

(Key ‘enablers’ for this sector:)  Lean manufacturing etc. --> recommend more government/industry projects like UK-LAI  Mechanisms to transfer best practice across industries  Systematic elimination of waste Is manufacturing important to UK plc? Prove it!

44



Gaps, Recommendations and Next Steps (75 minutes) Note that two revised groups were formed on Friday to adjust for early departures and late arrivals of delegates.

Session 3 (Friday), 1st group Note that two revised groups took part on Friday. 1. Key enablers or imperatives for your sector          

Senior manufacturing industrialists get involved & represent manufacturing/engineering interests with politicians Engineering institutes get interested in manufacturing It must be recognised that (successful) manufacturing is recognising customer needs and satisfying them Professors of manufacturing should team up When (we) say manufacturing, which director from the board is sent? The term is confusing and we need a new definition ... e.g. product/service delivery Need to get people together to redefine (manufacturing/engineering-related terms, activities?) – need to form a collective national voice Are product/service delivery systems important? Product/service/delivery --> manufacturing Is manufacturing important? Develop and improve standards Group & sector: 1A - AUTO/AERO

2. Key recommendations for action    

Group & sector: 1A - AUTO/AERO

A forum for naming (and defining?) this discipline, and developing(?) a common language The question “Is manufacturing important?” must be answered factually in economic, social, quantitative terms; use a multidisciplinary team ... PROVE YES/NO! Define a national strategy and disseminate current best ways and more (must look forward also to avoid danger) A continuous improvement plan (at all levels, industry, sector national?)

3. Filling in the gaps and extending the framework Grp & sector: 1A - AUTO/AERO


4. Next steps for the network

(See key enablers, recommendations, above)

45


Session 3 (Friday), 2nd group 1. Key enablers or imperatives for your sector    

 


Internal champions Budget within business plan Route maps linking long-term requirements to demonstrators to technology to research  built into R&D plan Mechanisms for valuing intellectual properties  government  financial institutions  industry Active collaboration between universities and industry Dissemination and integration with SMEs Group & sector: 2A - AUTO/AERO

2. Key recommendations for action

(See key enablers, above) 3. Filling in the gaps and extending the framework Grp & sector: 2A - AUTO/AERO PULL  Look at market and translate requirements for your sector and business  Look at gaps in technology  Look for access to technology  partners, collaboration  joint ventures PUSH  Look at emerging technologies and routes to exploitation  National political issues (as well as global)  Evaluate and understand competitor strategies Group & sector: 2A - AUTO/AERO

4. Next steps for the network     

Engineering-based manufacturing is fundamental Raising the need for government recognition Facilitate the exploitation of best practice Sell concept of framework/roadmap Encourage a move to higher value-added products and services

46