New Hampshire - Boston Herald

SUPRC/Boston Herald

New Hampshire Likely Voters

February 27 – March 5

New Hampshire Area Code: (N=800) West/North Central Hillsborough Rockingham

n 185 199 232 184

% 23.13 24.88 29.00 23.00

*************************************************************************************************************************************************************

Hello, my name is __________ and I am conducting a survey for Suffolk University and I would like to get your opinions on some questions about the upcoming presidential race in New Hampshire. Would you be willing to spend five minutes answering some brief questions….{QUOTAS}? Are you currently registered to vote? (N=800) Yes

n 800

% 100.00

(N=800) Male Female

n 383 417

% 47.88 52.13

Gender:

S2

Thank You. How likely are you to vote in the New Hampshire election for Governor and U.S. Senate? (N=800) Very Likely Somewhat Likely

S3

% 91.13 8.88

n 39 42 48 16 56 232 96 184 64 23

% 4.88 5.25 6.00 2.00 7.00 29.00 12.00 23.00 8.00 2.88

What county do you live in? (N=800) Belknap Carroll Cheshire Coos Grafton Hillsborough Merrimac Rockingham Strafford Sullivan

1

n 729 71

Are you enrolled as a Democrat, Republican, Independent/ Undeclared, or are you not registered yet? (N=800) Democratic Republican Independent/ Other

n 216 240 344

1 of 15

% 27.00 30.00 43.00

SUPRC/Boston Herald

2.



What is your age category? (N=800) 18-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 66-75 Over 75 Refused

n 122 140 198 134 98 86 22

% 15.25 17.50 24.75 16.75 12.25 10.75 2.75

n 720 7 7 4 2 26 24 10

% 90.00 0.88 0.88 0.50 0.25 3.25 3.00 1.25

3. Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity? (N=800) White/Caucasian African-American Asian American Indian Hispanic / Latino Other Undecided Refused

4. Which one of the following issues matters most in deciding your vote for Governor? (N=800) Taxes Education Economy/Jobs Healthcare Transportation Social Issues Other Undecided Refused

n 138 91 320 134 23 47 24 23 0

% 17.25 11.38 40.00 16.75 2.88 5.88 3.00 2.88 0.00

Great, I am going to read you a list of individuals in state and national politics. For each, please tell me if your opinion of them is generally favorable or generally unfavorable. If you are undecided or if you have never heard of someone, just tell me that. First take Barack Obama. Is your opinion of Barack Obama generally favorable or generally unfavorable? (N=800)

NEVER HEARD

5. Barack Obama

0

5.88

0.25

407 50.88

311 38.88

80 10.00

513 64.13

65

5.50

8.13

178 22.25

3.88

262 32.75

339 42.38

168 21.00

610 76.25

31

2.25

141 17.63

2

8. Scott Brown Andy Martin

HOF/UNDECIDED

382 47.75

6. Hillary Clinton

9.

UNFAVORABLE

371 46.38

0.00

7. Gary Johnson

FAVORABLE

31

2 of 15

44

18 3.88

47

SUPRC/Boston Herald

10. Jim Rubens


409 51.13

11. Maggie Hassan

30 3.75

(N=800) 12. Bob Smith

NEVER HEARD

9.88

100 12.50

212 26.50

442 55.25

210 26.25

118 14.75

FAVORABLE

UNFAVORABLE

HOF/UNDECIDED

193 24.13

155 19.38

258 32.25

194 24.25

21

402 50.25

265 33.13

112 14.00

8 1.00

422 52.75

297 37.13

9.13

506 63.25

47 5.88

86 10.75

161 20.13

16. Ted Gatsas

288 36.00

169 21.13

131 16.38

212 26.50

17. Andrew Hemingway

569 71.13

30

46

3.75

5.75

155 19.38

18. Bill Binnie

402 50.25

86 10.75

99 12.38

213 26.63

19. George Lambert

542 67.75

50

4.50

172 21.50

66

207 25.88

13. Kelly Ayotte 2.63 14. Jeanne Shaheen 15. Karen Testerman

20. Chuck Morse

21.


79

460 57.50

36 6.25 67 8.38

8.25

Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as president? (N=800) Approve Disapprove Undecided Refused

n 321 405 74 0

3 of 15

% 40.13 50.63 9.25 0.00

73

SUPRC/Boston Herald



22. What’s the first word or phrase that you think of when you hear the name Jeanne Shaheen? (N=800) “Ex Governor” “Senator” “Democrat” “Liberal” “Has done a good job” “Competent/Intelligent” “For the people/middle class” “Education” “Healthcare/Obama Care” (positive) “Trustworthy/Honest” “Committed/hard worker/dedicated” “Created jobs” “A woman” “Fair/moderate/middle of the road” “Politician” “Untrustworthy/corrupt/dishonest” “Healthcare/Obama Care” (negative) “Incompetent/ineffective” “Has done a poor job” “A follower” “Taxes” “Healthcare/Obama Care” (non-specific) “Positive mentions/like her” “Negative mentions/dislike her” “None/nothing” Other DK/NA/Refused

n 54 51 29 31 41 43 13 7 4 31 42 3 13 23 15 37 7 26 8 13 11 8 74 72 7 50 87

% 6.75 6.38 3.63 3.88 5.13 5.38 1.63 0.88 0.50 3.88 5.25 0.38 1.63 2.88 1.88 4.63 0.88 3.25 1.00 1.63 1.38 1.00 9.25 9.00 0.88 6.25 10.88

23. What’s the first word or phrase that you think of when you hear the name Scott Brown? (N=800) “Massachusetts” “Republican” “Conservative” “Independent” “Competent” “Carpet bagger/interloper” “Untrustworthy/dishonest” “Opportunist” “Incompetent/doing a bad job” “Trustworthy/honorable” “Hardworking” “Selfish/self-serving” “For the people” “Fair/moderate” “Wishy-washy/flip-flops/uncertain” “Against healthcare” “Politician” 4 of 15

n 54 23 9 8 33 87 53 27 7 13 19 8 3 21 28 3 11

% 6.75 2.88 1.13 1.00 4.13 10.88 6.63 3.38 0.88 1.63 2.38 1.00 0.38 2.63 3.50 0.38 1.38

SUPRC/Boston Herald


“Senator” “Positive mentions/like him” “Negative mentions/dislike him” “None/nothing” Other DK/NA/Refused

5 of 15


3 92 90 13 68 127

0.38 11.50 11.25 1.63 8.50 15.88

SUPRC/Boston Herald



{FOR 1.2, 1.3, 1.4} 24. The Republican Primary for Senate and Governor will take place on September 9th. How likely are you to vote in the Republican Primary – very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely? (N=584) Very Likely Somewhat Likely Not very likely Not at all likely Undecided Refused

n 336 90 59 75 23 1

% 58.33 15.63 10.24 13.02 3.99 0.17

{FOR 24.1 or 24.2} 25. The possible Republican candidates for Governor are Bill Binnie, Ted Gatsas, Andrew Hemingway, George Lambert, and Chuck Morse. At this point, for whom will you vote – Binnie, Gatsas, Hemingway, Lambert, or Morse? (N=426) Bill Binnie Ted Gatsas Andrew Hemingway George Lambert Chuck Morse Undecided Refused

26.

n 36 64 8 8 30 275 5

% 8.45 15.02 1.88 1.88 7.04 64.55 1.17

{FOR 25.1 - 25.5} Who would be your second choice? (N=146) Bill Binnie Ted Gatsas Andrew Hemingway George Lambert Chuck Morse Undecided Refused

n 25 22 15 9 6 63 6

% 17.12 15.07 10.27 6.16 4.11 43.15 4.11

{FOR 24.1 or 24.2} 27. For the Republican U.S. Senate Primary there are up to five candidates including Scott Brown, Andy Martin, Jim Rubens, Bob Smith, and Karen Testerman. At this point, for whom will you vote – Brown, Martin, Rubens, Smith, or Testerman? (N=426) Scott Brown Andy Martin Jim Rubens Bob Smith Karen Testerman Undecided Refused

n 142 3 13 51 14 196 7

6 of 15

% 33.33 0.70 3.05 11.97 3.29 46.01 1.64

SUPRC/Boston Herald

28.



{FOR 27.1 - 27.5} Who would be your second choice? (N=223) Scott Brown Andy Martin Jim Rubens Bob Smith Karen Testerman Undecided Refused

n 19 11 32 47 17 94 3

% 8.52 4.93 14.35 21.08 7.62 42.15 1.35

{FOR 24.1 or 24.2} 29A. I’m going to read you a list of up to a dozen Republican candidates for President. Please tell me which of the 12 would be your first choice if the Republican Primary were held today: {randomize} Scott Brown, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Jon Huntsman, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, Scott Walker… (n=426) Scott Brown Jeb Bush Chris Christie Ted Cruz Mike Huckabee Jon Huntsman Bobby Jindal Rand Paul Marco Rubio Paul Ryan Rick Santorum Scott Walker Undecided Refused

n 20 40 49 21 23 35 18 52 24 39 10 28 61 6

% 4.69 9.39 11.50 4.93 5.40 8.22 4.23 12.21 5.63 9.15 2.35 6.57 14.32 1.41

{FOR 29A.1 – 29A.12} 29B. Who would be your second choice: Scott Brown, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Jon Huntsman, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, Scott Walker… (n=359) Scott Brown Jeb Bush Chris Christie Ted Cruz Mike Huckabee Jon Huntsman Bobby Jindal Rand Paul Marco Rubio Paul Ryan Rick Santorum Scott Walker Undecided Refused

n 15 39 44 42 28 12 10 36 40 19 11 18 45 0 7 of 15

% 4.18 10.86 12.26 11.70 7.80 3.34 2.79 10.03 11.14 5.29 3.06 5.01 12.53 0.00

SUPRC/Boston Herald


8 of 15


SUPRC/Boston Herald



For the general election for Governor in November, I’m going to run Democrat Maggie Hassan against each of the five possible Republican candidates. First let’s start with: {RANDOMIZE 29-33} 29.

Democrat Maggie Hassan

vs

Republican Bill Binnie

(N=800) Maggie Hassan Bill Binnie Undecided 30.


n 438 206 156 vs

Republican Ted Gatsas

(N=800) Maggie Hassan Ted Gatsas Undecided 31.


n 424 226 150 vs


n 446 186 168 vs


n 439 177 184 vs

% 55.75 23.25 21.00

Republican George Lambert

(N=800) Maggie Hassan George Lambert Undecided 33.

% 53.00 28.25 18.75

Republican Andrew Hemingway

(N=800) Maggie Hassan Andrew Hemingway Undecided 32.

% 54.75 25.75 19.50

% 54.88 22.13 23.00

Republican Chuck Morse

(N=800) Maggie Hassan Chuck Morse Undecided

n 450 186 164

% 56.25 23.25 20.50

For U.S. Senate, I’m going to run Democrat Jeanne Shaheen against each of the five possible Republican candidates. First let’s start with: {RANDOMIZE 34-38} 34.

Democrat Jeanne Shaheen

vs

Republican Scott Brown

(N=800) Jeanne Shaheen Scott Brown Undecided 35.


n 416 313 71 vs

Republican Andy Martin

(N=800) Jeanne Shaheen Andy Martin Undecided 36.


n 417 214 169 vs

% 52.00 39.13 8.87

% 52.13 26.75 21.13

Republican Jim Rubens

(N=800)

n 9 of 15

%

SUPRC/Boston Herald


Jeanne Shaheen Jim Rubens Undecided


418 231 151

10 of 15

52.25 28.88 18.88

SUPRC/Boston Herald

37.



vs

(N=800) Jeanne Shaheen Bob Smith Undecided 38.



Republican Bob Smith n 421 259 120

vs

% 52.63 32.38 15.00

Republican Karen Testerman

(N=800) Jeanne Shaheen Karen Testerman Undecided

n 417 228 155

% 52.13 28.50 19.38

The following are questions about New Hampshire political issues: 39. Over the past two years do you feel that the state of the economy in New Hampshire has, in general, improved, stayed the same or has it gotten worse? (N=800) Improved Stayed The Same Gotten Worse Undecided Refused

n 250 321 210 19 0

% 31.25 40.13 26.25 2.38 0.00

40. Overall, do you feel that the Affordable Care Act signed into law in 2010, sometimes called Obamacare, is generally good for New Hampshire or generally bad? (N=800) Generally Good Generally Bad Undecided Refused 41.

% 37.13 51.75 10.63 0.50

n 187 549 64 0

% 23.38 68.63 8.00 0.00

Do you support or oppose a sales tax in New Hampshire? (N=800) Support Oppose Undecided Refused

42.

n 297 414 85 4

Do you support or oppose a mandatory seatbelt law in New Hampshire? (N=800) Support Oppose Undecided Refused

n 568 196 35 1

% 71.00 24.50 4.38 0.13

Some states in the northeast have required those who sell electricity to consumers to purchase a portion 43. of their electricity supply from power plants that use renewable fuels, such as wind, biomass or methane gas from landfills. The goal is to reduce the pollution that would otherwise be caused by using fossil fuels to generate electricity and to keep energy dollars circulating in the regional economy rather than going to other parts of the country and the world. In general, do you support these renewable energy policies? (N=800)

n 11 of 15

%

SUPRC/Boston Herald


Yes No Undecided Refused


525 206 68 1

65.63 25.75 8.50 0.13

{FOR 43.1} 44. How much of an increase in your monthly electric bill would you be willing to accept to increase the use of renewable fuels to produce electricity – a dollar per month, three dollars, five dollars per month, ten dollars, or something else? (N=525) n % $ 1 more per month 98 18.67 $ 3 more per month 63 12.00 $ 5 more per month 128 24.38 $10 more per month 84 16.00 over $10 per month 54 10.29 NOTHING MORE 75 14.29 Undecided 19 3.62 Refused 4 0.76 45. Some states in the northeast have offered generous financial incentives to homeowners and businesses that install solar-powered electricity equipment on their homes or buildings. The goal is to reduce pollution that would otherwise come from fossil fuel use and stabilize or even reduce electricity costs over the long run. In general, do you support these solar incentive policies? (N=800) Yes No Undecided Refused

n 555 183 61 1

% 69.38 22.88 7.63 0.13

{FOR 45.1} 46. How much of an increase in your monthly electric bill would you be willing to accept to support energy use by others – a dollar per month, three dollars, five dollars per month, ten dollars, or something else? (n=555) $ 1 more per month $ 3 more per month $ 5 more per month $10 more per month over $10 per month NOTHING MORE Undecided Refused

n 108 70 122 72 46 105 26 6

% 19.46 12.61 21.98 12.97 8.29 18.92 4.68 1.08

47. Some states in the northeast are trying to reduce the greenhouse gases that are believed by most scientists to be contributing to changes in climate. Most northeastern states require fossil fuel burning plants to buy “allowances” to emit these gases. These policies are thought to have contributed to a significant reduction in the emission of these gases in the northeast. In general, do you support “greenhouse gas reduction” policies? (N=800) Yes No Undecided

n 486 240 74 12 of 15

% 60.75 30.00 9.25

SUPRC/Boston Herald


Refused


0

13 of 15

0.00

SUPRC/Boston Herald



{FOR 47.1} How much of an increase in your monthly electric bill would you be willing to accept to pay for these restrictions 48. – a dollar per month, three dollars, five dollars per month, ten dollars, or something else? (n=486) $ 1 more per month $ 3 more per month $ 5 more per month $10 more per month over $10 per month NOTHING MORE Undecided Refused

n 87 73 135 63 39 67 17 5

% 17.90 15.02 27.78 12.96 8.02 13.79 3.50 1.03

49. Some states in the northeast would like to reduce their dependence on imported fossil fuels by importing electricity generated by large hydroelectric dams in the eastern Canadian provinces. The goal is to reduce emissions of air pollution, increase reliability of electricity supplies and stabilize electricity prices. To obtain this hydro-electricity will require the construction of new transmission lines as well as long-term commitments to purchase the power, and it would displace power generated by plants in the northeast states. In general, do you support the development of new transmission lines and long-term contracts to bring Canadian hydroelectric power to New England consumers? (N=800) Yes No Undecided Refused

n 370 295 133 2

% 46.25 36.88 16.63 0.25

{FOR 49.1} 50. How much of an increase in your monthly electric bill would you be willing to accept to pay for the new transmission lines and long-term commitments – a dollar per month, three dollars, five dollars per month, ten dollars, or something else? (n=370) $ 1 more per month $ 3 more per month $ 5 more per month $10 more per month over $10 per month NOTHING MORE Undecided Refused

n 70 50 71 40 24 97 14 4

% 18.92 13.51 19.19 10.81 6.49 26.22 3.78 1.08

These final questions will help us classify your answers with others taking the survey. 51.

Has anyone in your household ever served in the U.S. military? (N=800) Yes No Undecided Refused

52.

n 368 427 5 0

% 46.00 53.38 0.63 0.00

Does anyone in your household belong to a labor union? (N=800)

n 14 of 15

%

SUPRC/Boston Herald


Yes No Undecided Refused


138 659 1 2

15 of 15

17.25 82.38 0.13 0.25