EWEA 2011 – 14-17 March, Brussels, Belgium
Optimal Management of Wind Generation in Power Systems & Markets – The ANEMOS.plus project George Kariniotakis for the ANEMOS.plus team Head of Renewable Energies & SmartGrids Group MINES-ParisTech/ARMINES
[email protected]
Introduction Short-term forecasts of wind power (0-72h) are necessary for: •
managing wind integration in electricity grids;
•
trading wind production into markets;
90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 %
6 5
4 3 2
Forecast intervals
Production [MW]
=> Continous requirement by end-users for increasing accuracy in the forecasts.
Forecast Measures
1 0
t0
DAY +1
DAY +2
2
Introduction Short-term forecasting is recongnised as a top research priority in national or EU-wide research agendas (i.e. TPWind).
90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 %
6 5
4 3 2
Forecast intervals
Production [MW]
Front-end research is on-going in projects like SafeWind* which focus on extreme situations (tools for ramps, warning, alerting, prediction at EU scale).
Forecast Measures
1 0
t0
(*) www.safewind.eu
DAY +1
DAY +2
3
Introduction Challenge: How to optimally integrate these forecasts into the daily practice and business processes of the operators or traders: •
Direct use & interpretation of the forecasts and related uncertainty;
•
Use of the forecasts as input into the power system management functions.
Existing management tools are mainly "deterministic". • They rather consider uncertainties in predictions in a simplified way (i.e. as a fixed margin of predicted power). 4
The ANEMOS.plus Project 2008-2011 8 countries, 22 partners End-users (9) SMEs (2) Research (4) Universities (5) Meteorologists *
Coordination ARMINES/ Mines ParisTech
http://www.anemos-plus.eu
5
Objectives • Demonstrate the performance of advanced wind power forecasting functionalities and resulting benefits.
• Demonstrate the benefits from the application of decision support tools based on stochastic analysis and optimization. Comparison to actual practices for the management of wind generation.
6
Technical Objectives (forecasting) Enhanced reliability, robustness & ergonomy of forecasting tools Multi-NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) approach Multi-model/combined approach Intelligent handling of situations with incomplete information Adaptability of prediction tools to changing environment (i.e. evolution of installed capacity) Extended prediction functionalities Very short-term predictions Probabilistic forecasting (including ensembles) Prediction scenarios Prediction risk indices for warning on large errors. Standardization Interfaces, Data handling, Security aspects, Alarming,… 7
Technical Objectives (system management/trading) Optimal management of electricity grids with large-scale wind power generation development of new management tools for addressing the variability of wind power emphasis is given on the integration of wind power forecasts and related uncertainty in power system key management functions
Application of wind power uncertainty forecasts on the electricity trading by wind power producers development of strategies to reduce financial risks from imbalances induced by forecast errors development of coordination strategies between wind farms and pumping storage plants (using probabilistic wind power forecasts)
Fully operational tools
8
Technical Objectives (power system management) Functions considered: Power system scheduling
Reserves estimation
Probabilistic forecasting
Wind/ Congestion management
storage
Optimal
coordination
trading
ANEMOS.plus demos
End-users : • TSOs • DSOs • Island system operators • Utilities • Traders 9
Key functions demonstrated in ANEMOS.plus
10
Overal approach
More-Care WILMAR ANEMOS
ANEMOS.plus • Adaptation of previous tools • Development of new tools
Demonstration • End-users daily practice
… Previous Research Projects
On-going research in forecasting :
SafeWind 11
Interaction with SafeWind • Investigate the contribution of tools that can improve prediction of extreme "events" like ramps; • Such situations have a high impact on the power system operation and economics. • Example: Anemos.rulez model for ramps prediction and alerting (Overspeed).
WPP model
NWP model for WPP
Hits
Misses
False forecasts
Model 1
Skiron
19
12
10
Model 2
BMO
11
20
22
Model 3
BMO
12
19
16
Power Predicted (green), Power Measured (blue)
350 MW
300 MW
12
Demonstration/Evaluation Phase • Tools run operationally at the control centers and in parallel to the existing procedures • The tools provide their output in a consultative way to the operators • The benefits are under evaluation (until June 2011)
13
DEMO CASES: PPC Crete (Wind forecasting) • 20% improvement in forecasts accuracy compared to previous applied approaches. Color code: PCModel KDE Persistence Climatology AWPPS Combination
• Example of unit commitment results
14
DEMO CASES: REN (Reserves: Installation) Details of the Reserves Tool Demo
DEMO CASES: REN (Reserves: Output) • Day-ahead market: secondary plus tertiary reserve • Intraday market: tertiary reserve • Different Decision Methods – Risk threshold • Loss of load Probability [LOLP]: 0.1%; 0.5%; 1% • Probability of Wasting Renewable Energy [PWRE]: 0.1%; 0.5%; 1% – Trade-off between risk and reserve Cost
DEMO CASES: REN (Congestion management) Evaluation: • Comparision with the deterministic power flow; • Capability of detecting situations with congestions and voltage violations • Opinion of the operator about the results consistency
Example of results in high penetration conditions
Conclusions - Learnings • Development of an appropriate evaluation framework (multiple criteria) for several problems; • Demonstration of the added value from stochastic methods over deterministic approaches; • Promising results on the benefits from the application of the new approaches on several real cases with a substantial level of wind integration
18
Conclusions - Learnings • Tough task to bring together different "worlds" (forecasters, meteorologists, end-users…); • The project provided interesting learnings on how research activities can be accommodated in the business process of the end-users; • Very long to modify business processes - longer than the run of a research project; • A public workshop will take place in Paris on the 29th of June 2011 to present in detail the project final results. 19
Thank you for your attention
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Context – Research in Wind Power Forecasting •
Latest European Projects ANEMOS : FP5, 2002-2006
Context – Research in Wind Power Forecasting •
Latest European Projects ANEMOS : FP5, 2002-2006 ANEMOS.plus : FP6, 2008-2011
ANEMOS.plus
22
Context – Research in Wind Power Forecasting •
Latest European Projects ANEMOS : FP5, 2002-2006
SAFEWIND : FP6, 2008-2012
ANEMOS.plus : FP6, 2008-2011
SafeWind
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