pengantar scenario planning - PUSDIKLAT SPIMNAS BIDANG ...

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Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n

PENGANTAR SCENARIO PLANNING

Pengertian Scenario Planning (SP) • Narasi atau cerita mengenai kemungkinankemungkinan tentang masa depan. • Berisi uraian tentang apa yang mungkin terjadi, bukan apa yang harus terjadi. • Bukan prediksi (prediction) atau ramalan (forecasting) tentang masa depan. Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n

• Bukan sebuah rencana atau rekayasa. • Merupakan deskripsi, bukan preskripsi tentang masa depan.

Nama lain

Scenario Planning • Scenario Building • Scenario Development


• Scenario Thinking

Sejarah Scenario Planning Prinsip-prinsip awalnya dikembangkan di kalangan militer selama dan setelah setelah PD II;

•

Di dunia bisnis, Scenario Planning menjadi salah satu metode untuk “membaca” masa depan;

•

Shell Oil Company adalah organisasi bisnis yang menjadikan Scenario Planning sebagai metode yang memiliki aspek ilmiah dan sekaligus seni;

•

Ragam Pemanfaatan Scenario Planning saat ini mencakup hampir seluruh bidang, dari tema yang berhubungan dengan masa depan negara, keamanan nasional, lingkungan hidup, perdagangan, hingga Industri, pendidikan, terorisme dan sebagainya.


•

Dua Pendekatan Scenario Planning • Pendekatan Pakar, melibatkan sedikit orang/kalangan tertentu (150 orang). Misalnya, Skenario Indonesia 2010, disebut juga sebagai dialog skenario.

Tujuh Langkah Penyusunan SP 1. Menetapkan focal concern (FC). 2. Mengindentifikasi driving forces (DF). 3. Menganalisis hubungan antar-DF 4. Memilih DF yang paling berpengaruh.

6. Menentukan ciri kunci tiap skenario. 7. Menyusun narasi skenario.


5. Menyusun matriks skenario.

LANGKAH-1

Menetapkan focal concern (FC) • FC merupakan isu strategis yang menjadi perhatian utama; mencemaskan/menggelisahkan. • Merupakan jangkar bagi pembicaraan mengenai skenario. • Perlunya time-frame yang jelas Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n

• AWAS!: FC berbeda menghasilkan skenario yang berbeda.

•

Masa depan Industri Garmen Indonesia 2025

•

Masa depan ASEAN 2050

•

Terorisme Internasional 2030

•

Perguruan Tinggi Swasta di Indonesia 2020

•

Partai Politik di Indonesia 2025

•

Dunia Perminyakan 2050


Beberapa contoh Focal Concern

LANGKAH-2

Mengindentifikasi driving forces (DF) • DF adalah pendorong perubahan. • Identifikasi DF dengan mendaftar sebanyak dan selengkap mungkin hal yang dipercaya dapat mempengaruhi FC. Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n

• Rekonseptualisasi, rekategorisasi, recluster untuk hasilkan DF final.

• DF selalu dinyatakan dalam bentuk variabel.

Langkah-2: Mengidentifikasi DF (Lanjutan) • DF yang kurang lengkap menghasilkan skenario-skenario yang tidak cermat; • Check&recheck: should be comprehensive, complete, thorough, and exhaustive;

• “Think the unthinkable”


• Gunakan “the tip of ice-berg system of thinking, “STEEP analysis”, “the three arenas”;

LANGKAH-3

Menganalisis hubungan antar-DF


• Memetakan hubungan di antara DF yang satu dengan DF yang lain. • Memetakan hubungan keseluruhan DF terhadap FC. • Memberikan penjelasan tentang bagaimana jalinan hubungan itu mempengaruhi FC. • Perspektif yang berbeda menghasilkan skema yang berbeda: No problem

LANGKAH-4

Memilih dua DF paling strategis

Lakukan seleksi berdasar tiga kriteria: • Pilih DF yang memiliki hubungan langsung terhadap FC. • Pilih DF yang memiliki pengaruh yang segera terhadap FC.


• Pilih DF yang paling kritis (importance and uncertain). • Tentukan dua: paling langsung, paling segera, paling kritis.

LANGKAH-5

Menyusun matriks skenario • Tentukan matriks yang terdiri atas sumbu ordinat dan aksis yang dikembangkan dari dua DF terpilih. • Tentukan kutub-kutub dari setiap DF terpilih. • Contoh: DF kebijakan ekonomi: Pro-Kapitalisme–Pro-Sosialisme

DF kebijakan politik: Pro-Centralization – Pro-Decentralization


Pro-Konglomerasi–Pro-UKM

Symmetric Decentralization – Asymmetric Decentralization

Contoh matriks skenario: Prosentralisasi

DF 2

SKENARIO 4

SKENARIO 1 Prokonglomerasi

DF 1 Pro-UKM

Prodesentralisasi


SKENARIO 2

SKENARIO 3

Indonesian State Bureaucracy 2015 Stronger influence from political institutions

Weaker Influence from Political Institutions


Stronger orientation toward Iibertarian approach

Stronger orientation toward socialdemocracy approach

LANGKAH-6

Menentukan indikator kunci tiap skenario • Tentukan ciri-ciri pokok dari masing-masing kutub. • Tentukan implikasi dari bertemunya ciri-ciri yang melekat pada kutub yang relevan pada satu DF dan kutub yang relevan pada DF lainnya. Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n

• Tentukan simbol atau frase yang asosiatif untuk masing-masing skenario.

LANGKAH-7

Menyusun narasi skenario • Kembangkan sebuah narasi untuk setiap skenario berdasarkan interaksi di antara ciri-ciri di masing-masing kutub. • Setiap skenario berisi deskripsi elaboratif tentang implikasi bertemunya ciri-ciri pokok yang relevan. • Gaya penulisan narasi amat beragam; dari yang menekankan proses hingga yang menekankan snapshot peristiwa; dari yang menekan aktor hingga hard-facts.


• Versi alternatif skenario: komik, cerita pendek, film, drama, dan karikatur.

TIPS menuliskan SKENARIO • Penulisan skenario yang baik memerlukan imaginasi yang kuat atas teks dan konteks; • Setiap skenario memiliki elemen konstitutif yang kontras terhadap skenario lainnya;


• Narasi skenario harus mampu menimbulkan minat dan hasrat yang kuat di kalangan aktor-aktor strategis dan publik yang lebih luas untuk terlibat dalam diskusi mengenai implikasi skenario terhadap “hidup mereka saat ini” dan “nasib kehidupan yang lebih luas di masa depan”

Manfaat Scenario Planning (SP) • SP membantu kita memahami masa depan secara lebih realistik karena menyertakan gambar serba-rupa dan serba-mungkin: “masa depan dengan sejumlah wajah”; • SP menghindarkan kita dari kemendadakan, keterkejutan, dan keanehan;


• SP memberi manfaat pada para pengambil keputusan untuk menghindarkan the undesirable scenarios dan menciptakan kondisi yang memungkinkan bagi tercapainya the most desirable scenario melalui strategic planning.

daniel sparringa


Cheers...

Part Two

The Future of Indonesia A Scenario Approach:

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Indonesia 2025

Shaping The Future Driving Forces (1):

2. 3.

4. 5.

The development of political parties; The implementation of decentralisation; The amendment of constitution and or laws regarding political system (UU Parpol, UU Pemilu, UU Susduk); The development of Islam Politics; The growth of identity politics;


1.

Shaping The Future Driving Forces (2):

7. 8.

9. 10.

11.

Economic growth; The direction of National leadership; The commitment of political elites toward a more meaningful democracy; Level of public participation; The development of discourse on democracy; Globalisation.


6.

Shaping The Future The three M ost’s:

(the m ost direct, im m ediate, and critical)

The development of civil society;  The direction of national leadership




stronger national leadership

w eaker civil society

w eaker national leadership


stronger civil society

Characteristics of each pole (1) Stronger Civil Society

     

the existence of shared-values; the increase of social trust; stronger social cohesion; the growing of social solidarity based on humanism; more balanced-partisipation; the growing of beliefs in social justice; stronger beliefs in social-political progress




Characteristics of each pole (2) W eaker Civil Society

     

sharp fragmentation of ideologies; growing of social distrust; widening of violent communal conflicts; the persistency of ethnic-religious sentiments; over-public participation; widening of perceived systemic injustice; stronger APES (apathy, pessimism, scepticsm);




Characteristics of each pole (3) Stronger N ational Leadership

 

  



the existence of common platform, vision, and goals; the integration of political elites; more generative (adaptive and responsive) towards changes; More creative approach in making breakthrough; Stronger orientation towards “free and fair” market; stronger commitment to a more meaningful democracy; Stronger believe in rational politics;




Characteristics of each pole (4) W eaker National Leadership      

rivalries on political platform, vision, and goals; lack of integration of political elites; more reactive towards events; “Free-floating” policies; stronger free market policies; More commitment toward a procedural democracy; political orientation towards “balanced-politics” based on ethnic-religious affiliation;




stronger national leadership 

 



 





sharp fragmentation of ideologies; growing of social distrust; widening of violent communal conflict; the persistency of ethnicreligious sentiments; over-public participation; widening of perceived systemic injustice; stronger APES (apathy, pessimism, scepticsm);









w eaker civil society

















rivalries on political platform, vision, and goals; lack of integration of political elites; more reactive towards events; floating approach and policy; pro a stronger free market policy; commitment toward a procedural democracy; political orientation towards balancedpolitics based on ethnic-religious politics;


the existence of common platform, vision, and goals; the integration of political elites; more generative (adaptive and responsive) towards changes; creative in making breakthrough; a more balanced economic policy between free and fair market; stronger commitment to a more meaningful democracy; believe in rational politics;

stronger civil society    

the existence of shared-values; the increase of social trust building; stronger social cohesion; the growing of social solidarity based on humanism; more balancedpartisipation; the growing of beliefs in social justice; stronger beliefs in social-political progress




  

stronger national leadership

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w eaker civil society stronger civil society


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Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 Towards A New Energy Future Darwin Silalahi

Shell Indonesia


Copyright: Shell International BV

President Director and Country Chairman

Disclaimer statement


This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forwardlooking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forwardlooking statements included in this presentations, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for the Group’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserve estimates; (f) loss of market and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory effects arising from recategorisation of reserves; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2007 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, December 2008. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.

2

Shell has strong historical links with Indonesia •1884, discovery of oil at Telaga Tunggal 1 well in Pangkalan Brandan (N Sumatra) led to establishment of "Provisional Sumatra Petroleum Co“… •…which in 1890 then converted into the Royal Dutch Petroleum Co - established in NL


•1907, Royal Dutch Petroleum merged with British based Shell Trading and became what is today known as Royal Dutch Shell plc

3


Shell in the World – #1 in 2009 Fortune Global 500 Companies

4

Why Scenarios? – Discontinuities are not that obvious “Well informed people know it is impossible to transmit voice over waves and that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value.” Editorial in The Boston Post c.1865

“I think there is a market for about 5 computers.” Thomas J. Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943

“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” Ken Olsen, President of DEC, 1977 Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n

“$10 per barrel [oil] might actually be too optimistic. We may be heading for $5.” Economist magazine, 1999

5

World’s energy systems – Time of unprecedented change

2003 30 $/bbl

Source Economist Magazine

2005 60 $/bbl


1999 10 $/bbl

2008 100-140 $/bbl

6


What, When and How? – Scenarios explore alternative futures

Harvard Business Review ‘Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead’, Pierre Wack, (Sept–Oct 1985) pp. 73–89; 7

The energy system today sets the context for the future 21%

27% Source: Shell International BV; UN Population Division

25%

10%

46%

6%

4%


34%

27%

World population 6.6 bln; 50% in urban environment

8

The fundamentals – By 2050… 9 billion people 2.5 billion more than today

2 billion cars double the number today

4-5 times richer with most extra wealth coming from developing countries

80 % of world’s population in urban areas 1 billion more consumers in Asia


up from 50% today

9

The World’s Energy Challenge – 3 Hard Truths The global demand for energy is growing, both in the developed and developing world. Supplies of “easy oil” cannot keep up with the growth in energy demand.

“More Energy, Less CO2”


More energy means more CO2 emitted at a time when climate change looms as a critical global issue.

10


Increasing population & prosperity of rapidly growing economies drive energy demand

Source United Nations Population Division, 2004 Revision; Shell International BV, Oxford Economics and Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries © OECD/IEA 2006

11

World energy demand is on track to double by 2050. “Business as usual” energy consumption by sector

600

400

200

0 1975

2000

2025

2050

Heavy industry

Agriculture & other industry

Services

Transport

Residential

Non energy use (e.g. petrochemicals)

Source: Shell International BV and Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries©OECD/IEA 2006


exajoule per year

800

12

Supply will struggle to keep pace… “Easy” oil and gas may no longer keep up with demand after 2015 Coal use will increase but constrained by logistic limits Nuclear growth constrained by politics, and recreation of 3 industries – uranium mining, EPC, waste management

Renewables – long lead time to scale up


Biofuels constrained by availability of arable land

…need all the energy we can get

13

Unsustainable CO2 levels in atmosphere Science warns of a 450 ppm upper limit before major climate change events occur Currently, CO2 concentration at 386ppm, rising at 2ppm (…or faster) a year

In “Business as usual” world, direct CO2 from energy could rise dramatically

65 48

28 Gt/yr

“Business as usual” could mean CO2 from energy reach 65Gt/yr in 2050…

Source: Shell International BV

2007

2025

North America Latin America Middle East & Africa

2050


…and by end of the century, global temperatures could be up to 6 ‘C above pre-industrial level

Europe Asia & Oceania

14


Short Video

15

Two energy scenarios


A more reactive approach, first focusing on increasing energy supply and then facing the consequences later.

Difficult decisions are taken sooner, leading to a better balance of economic, human and environmental needs.

16


Scramble - Security of supply and fear of losing economic growth

17

Scramble – Energy nationalism; Consequences for energy mix 1000

EJTotal per year primary energy (EJ per year)

Triple Impact

750

500

Rebound

Focus on national supply security, supply access & self–reliance Sequential, late & erratic responses to hard truths

Flight to coal

Energy price spikes, but no/ineffective carbon pricing

250

Coal and Biofuels spotlighted 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Oil Coal Biomass Wind

Gas Nuclear Solar Other Renewables

Focus on existing infrastructure Patchwork of strong national standards


0

EVENTS OUTPACE ACTIONS

18


Blueprints – Energy security and sustainability

19

Blueprints – Energy sustainability; Consequences for energy mix Electrification

Intensity Reduction

750

500

Broad awareness of challenges at all levels, not only national Critical mass of parallel responses to hard truths, initiated by emergent coalitions

Patchwork Alignment

Carbon pricing established early Efficiency & Electrification spotlighted

250

New infrastructure develops e.g. CCS

0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Oil Coal Biomass Wind

Gas Nuclear Solar Other Renewables

Coalescence of global standards


1000

Total energy (EJ per year) EJ per primary year

ACTIONS OUTPACE EVENTS

20

Blueprints - Transition is inevitable; a revolution in energy pathways History -Traditional paths 400

GJ per capita (primary energy)

1970-2005

300

Revolutionary paths 400

GJ per capita (primary energy)

1970-2050

USA

300

S.Korea

200

200

Japan 100

0

0 0

10

20

30

GDP per capita (PPP, '000 2000 USD)

40

China

EU15

India 0

40


100

80

120

GDP per capita (PPP, '000 2000 USD)

Source: Shell International BV, Oxford Economics and Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries © OECD/IEA 2006

21

Blueprints - Efficiency and innovation in transport Passenger distance travelled (world)

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000

Liquid fuels

2025

2050

Electric transport



index 2000 = 100

350

22

Blueprints – CO2 capture and storage in power abates ~30% total emissions by 2050 40

Power generation- CO2 captured & stored

30

Power generation Non-energy use Residential

20

Transport Services

10

Agriculture & other industry Heavy Industry

0 2000

2030

2050



gigatonne per year

Direct CO2 emissions from energy by sector

23

Implications for direct CO2 emissions from energy Early actions

50

50

40

40

gigatonne per year

30 20 10

30 20 10

0

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


gigatonne per year

Late reactions

Europe

North America

Asia & Oceania - Developed

Asia & Oceania - Developing

Latin America

Middle East & Africa


24

Consequences for CO2 emissions:Climate stresses remain in both scenarios World - Direct CO2 output from energy - ppmv pathways 60

History Scramble Blueprints Blueprints no CCS CO2 1000 ppmv path CO2 550 ppmv path CO2 450 ppmv path

40 30 20 10 0 1970

1990

2010

2030

2050

2070


Gt CO2 / year

50

25

Comparing the scenarios: energy mix Blueprints

1000

1000

800

800

600

600

400

400

200

200

0

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Biomass

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Solar


Wind


exajoule per year (energy source)

Scramble

Other Renewables Business as Usual

26

Indonesia – dealing with implications of hard truths? Breakdown of total primary energy Scramble Blueprints 2050

2025

2025

2000

2000 0%

Oil

25%

Gas

50%

Coal

75%

Nuclear

Biomass includes traditional biomass such as wood, dung etc

100%

Biomass

0%

25%

Solar

Wind

50%

75%

100%


2050

Other Renewables

% Renewables in 2000 = 4% excl biomass, 32% incl biomass In 2050 inll biomass SCR = 57%, BLU = 48%, excl. SCR 31%, BLU 37%


27

What this means for Indonesia Massive investment and new skill sets will be required Acquire technology for ‘challenged’ resources

Step up efforts to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels Grow the share of renewable energy

Make haste on boosting energy efficiency Double-up on cutting CO2 emissions.

Address energy price caps and huge subsidies Knock on effect on investment & efficiency, impede the push for renewable energy


Play a key role in regional and global debates (e.g. ASEAN, G20, UN) on energy and climate change

28

One preferred approach: Blueprints In our view, the Blueprints approach offers the best hope for a sustainable future The environmental, human and economic outcomes seen in Blueprints make for a more sustainable world Realizing a Blueprints scenario will not be easy, but we are working towards it…


BLUEPRINTS

29

In summary – what we have learned The three hard truths are very hard Transition is both inevitable and necessary Technology plays a major role, but no silver bullets Political and regulatory choices are pivotal


The next 5 years are critical Tackling all three hard truths TOGETHER is essential for a sustainable future

30


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