funds for miners. Overall, the modest increase of this quarter's optimism shows that 2018 will be more challenging for b
DUN & BRADSTREET
Philippines Business Optimism Index
Quarter 4 2017
Measuring Confidence
Measured Decisions
BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX The Dun & Bradstreet Business Optimism Index (BOI) report is a measure of business confidence in the economy. Released quarterly, it measures the pulse of the business community and is one of the most effective ways to track how the business community perceives the business environment, and where they think it is going. Over time, this quarterly survey has emerged as a leading indicator of turning points in economic activity in countries which it is published.
SURVEY METHODOLOGY For the purpose of conducting the survey, a sample is randomly selected from Dun & Bradstreet database, consisting of companies belonging to the following sectors including Agriculture, Construction, Utilities, Finance, Manufacturing, Mining, Services, Transportation, Wholesale, and Real Estate.
AGRICULTURE
CONSTRUCTION
UTILITIES
FINANCE
MANUFACTURING
MINING
SERVICES
TRANSPORTATION
WHOLESALERS
REAL ESTATE
All the respondents in the survey are asked six standard questions regarding their expectations as to whether the following critical parameters pertaining to their respective companies will register an increase ( ), decline ( ) or show no change ( ) in the ensuing quarter as compared to the same quarter in the prior year: Volume of Sales, Net Profits, Selling Prices, New Orders, Inventory Levels, and Employees.
SALES VOLUME
NET PROFIT
SELLING PRICE
NEW ORDERS
INVENTORY
EMPLOYMENT
The individual indices are then calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents expecting decreases from those expecting increases. Unless otherwise stated, increases and decreases in indices represent changes from the previous quarter.
B u s in e s s Op timis m I n d e x PHILIPPINES Quarter 4 2017
S l o w R i se in P H Busi nessOpti m i sm T ow ar d s th e E n d o f 2017
Duterte government's initiative of 'Build, Build, Build' program wherein the government is expected to spend more in infrastructure projects is seen to boost the construction sector’s growth. NEDA’s OIC and Undersecretary for Investment Programming, Rolando G. Tungpalan also shared that, "sustained infrastructure development, translating to increase in public construction expenditure, is anticipated not only to increase the growth of the manufacturing sector, but also to support the continuous growth of the economy."
Overall, the modest increase of this quarter's optimism shows that 2018 will be more challenging for businesses and that growth plans should not be abandoned as the country's economists are pushing for stronger revenue generating policies through the tax reform bill. OVERALL BOI SCORE CHART
90
8
80
7
70 60
6 5
50
4
40
3
30
2
20
1
10
0
0 Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Composite BOI
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
GDP Growth (y-o-y %)
GDP GROWTH (%)
The general positive outlook was seen in 6 indicators volume of sales, net profit, selling price, new orders, inventory level and employment. 61% of the respondents increased positive expectations while 3% decreased. Agricultural, construction and wholesale sectors turn to be the most optimistic this quarter. Factors affecting this outlook are anticipation of consumer demands in the upcoming holiday season for the wholesalers and assumption of favorable weather conditions for agricultural products. More businesses are also confident that new orders will come in with an over-all score of 77.67%.
On the other hand, mining sector remains to be the less optimistic mainly due to the plan of the newly appointed Environment Secretary Roy Cimatu to impose higher tax on mining operations and implement future policies to expand the required rehabilitation funds for miners.
BOI SCORE
Philippine business community remains confident for Q4 of 2017 with hopes of growth in number of orders and increase in sales. Dun & Bradstreet Philippines Business Optimism Index is ending the year at 57.6% which shows a slight rise from previous quarter's 55.9%.
B u s in e s s Op timis m I n d e x PHILIPPINE S Quarter 4 2017
VOLUM E O F SALES
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
160 140 120 100
% 80 60 40
20 0
AGRICULTURE
CONSTRUCTION
FINANCE
NET P ROFIT
MANUFACTURING
Q1 2015
MINING
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
SERVICES
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
TRANSPORTATION
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
WHOLESALE
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
ALL
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
160
140 120 100
%
80
60
40
20 0
AGRICULTURE
CONSTRUCTION
FINANCE
MANUFACTURING
MINING
SERVICES
TRANSPORTATION
WHOLESALE
ALL
Q4 2017
B u s in e s s Op timis m I n d e x PHILIPPINE S Quarter 4 2017
SELLING PRICE
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
100 80 60
40
%
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
AGRICULTURE
CONSTRUCTION
FINANCE
NEW ORD E R
MANUFACTURING
Q1 2015
MINING
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
SERVICES
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
TRANSPORTATION
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
WHOLESALE
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
ALL
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
160 140
120
100
%
80
60
40
20 0
AGRICULTURE
CONSTRUCTION
FINANCE
MANUFACTURING
MINING
SERVICES
TRANSPORTATION
WHOLESALE
ALL
Q4 2017
B u s in e s s Op timis m I n d e x PHILIPPINE S Quarter 4 2017
INVENTORY LEVELS
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
120
100
80
60
%
40
20
0
-20
-40 AGRICULTURE
CONSTRUCTION
FINANCE
MANUFACTURING
Q1 2015
EMP LOYMENT
MINING
Q2 2015
SERVICES
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
TRANSPORTATION
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
WHOLESALE
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
ALL
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
150
100
50
%
0
-50
-100
-150
AGRICULTURE
CONSTRUCTION
FINANCE
MANUFACTURING
MINING
SERVICES
TRANSPORTATION
WHOLESALE
ALL
Q4 2017
ABOUT DUN & BRADSTR EET ® ( D &B) Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE: DNB) grows the most valuable relationships in business. By uncovering truth and meaning from data, we connect customers with the prospects, suppliers, clients and partners that matter most, and have since 1841. Nearly ninety percent of the Fortune 500, and companies of every size around the world, rely on our data, insights and analytics. For more about Dun & Bradstreet, visit www.DNB.com.ph. © Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 2017. All rights reserved.
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