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Petroleum Revenue Management. Bill. PEACEKEEPING MISSION. It is highly recommended for The. Chairperson to appeal to the Peace and. Security Council ...
The conflict in South Sudan: Energy and Political Challenge Policy Report for the African Union Commission

‘Investing energy and power in the instability today, will provide stability tomorrow.’

Ioana Bakardzhieva June 2016 The University of Groningen

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Executive Summary The political report aims at advising the African Union Commission on the South Sudanese Civil War, which launched in 2013. The Report will provide the Commission with a comprehensive overview of the conflict and its nature, in order to defend its recommendations. The offered advices in the Report comply fully with the political and economic vision of the African Union for the accomplishment of sustainable social environment in Africa. In this context, the Report recognizes the Commission as an influential and crucial actor in the resolution of the South Sudanese Civil War. Threes possible scenarios are presented in the Report, as for each of them is developed a different background, which aims at highlight the specifics of the scenarios. Except the recommendation to the Commission, the Report will pay attention to the challenges for their implementation. The Report considers this particular part as a vital pillar of the analysis, because it would prepare the Commission for probable problems of the political process.

PEACE The return of the opposition leader Riek Machar on the VicePresident post gives hope for securing the IGAD’s peace deal.

INTERNAL WAR The gap between Kiir's and Machar’s visions, in respect to the Government are likely to grow even further, boosting the conflict circumstances.

CHANGE OF THE CONSTITUTIVE ACT

ARMS EMBARGO

PEACEKEEPING MISSION

It is highly recommended for the Commission to appeal to the Pan-African Parliament and IGAD to establish embargo on arms sales to South Sudan. Furthermore, the Commission is advised to initiate the creation of a special panel for Monitoring and Evaluation of the oil legislation, fostering the indispensable changes in the Petroleum Act 2012 and the Petroleum Revenue Management Bill.

It is highly recommended for The Chairperson to appeal to the Peace and Security Council, whose authorities include advising The Assembly in a need of a peacekeeping intervention. The Commission can initiate the creation of a c o m m i s s i o n fo r E v a l u a t i o n a n d Mediation in South Sudan, involving more ethnic groups in the peace-building process. The Commission can also make a proposal to the Assembly for the creation of new special fund, named ’Our Generation is Our Future’.

It is highly recommended for he Commission to make a proposal to the Assembly for change of the Constitutive Аct of the African Union, according to which the South Sudanese government has to be forced in signing and ratifying the Act. The Chairperson can request for the active use of the Panel of the Wise’s good offices within the post-conflict period.

REGIONAL WAR The ethnic tension expanded beyond the South Sudanese borders, causing a serious threat for the conflict’s regional expansion.

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HIGTLY RECOMMENDED In addition to all recommendations, the Commission is advised to take immediate and effective measures for controlling the humanitarian aids though several possible actions: • appeal for strengthening of the international humanitarian aid increase of the finances within the South Sudan AIDS Commission (SSAC)’s projects • initiative for the creation of special AU Fund “Our Generation is Our Future” start up projects funded by the project “Our Generation is Our Future” within two scopes: physical and psychological health care



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Contents Executive summary Introduction Methodology PEACE • Background • Change in the Constitutive Act • Request of the Panel of Wise • Challenges INTERNAL WAR • Background • Arms Embargo • Monitoring of the oil legislation • Challenges REGIONAL WAR • Background • Military intervention • Commission for Monitoring and Evaluation • Challenges Conclusion

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Introduction The Civil War in South Sudan, which began as a political conflict between the President Salva Kiir and the Vice-President Riek Machar, has escalated in an economic and military collapse with an ethnic dimension. The war caused a horrible humanitarian crisis. More than 2.3 million people have been displaced since December 2013, 3.9 million people are facing food insecurity and 58,690 children were affected from the conflict 1. Although, the conflict has received a large international echo, the lack of explicit legal regulations led to the rise of political and military arbitrariness from both sides. A number of violations of government procedures have occurred in the oil and military sectors. The continuous impunity tend to increase the abuses of human rights 2. In August 2015, the Government of South Sudan and the SPLM/A in Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) signed The Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan, which failed to reduce the violence in the country 3. As a result of a strong international pressure, Kiir allowed to Machar to go back to Juba and lent the Vice-President post 4. Indeed, this event is expected to end the bloody civil war and rebuild the peace in the country. Unfortunately, couple of months before the return of Machar, the President signed the resolution of the council of states for establishing 28 states. In both domestic and international experts’s opinion, this political decision can seriously harm the peace-building process 5. Out of all political differentiations in the two leaders’s views, the main reason for the conflict’s escalation remains the fight for control over the oil resources. The oil finances have played a crucial role in the conflict, in favor of the Government instead of this in 1

"Report of the Secretary-General on South Sudan." UN Organ. Accessed May 23, 2016. http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/ view_doc.asp?symbol=S/2015/296. 2

"World Report 2015: South Sudan Events of 2014." HRW. Accessed May 25, 2016. https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2015/ country-chapters/south-sudan. 3

"AGREEMENT ON THE RESOLUTION OF THE CONFLICT IN THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH SUDAN." IGAD. Accessed May 22, 2016. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B5FAwdVtt-gCelBQZVAxbjhUc1FmSHo3VnNaT09Ldm1GNEhz/ view. 4

"South Sudan Rebel Leader Riek Machar Returns to Juba." TheGuardian. Accessed May 24, 2016. http:// www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/26/south-sudan-rebel-leader-reik-machar-returns-juba. 5

The establishment of 28 states was recognized by a number of foreign actors as a strong violation of the IGAD’s peace agreement. The decision aims at providing the President Kiir with more control over the oil production regions. "December 2015 Monthly Forecast South Sudan." SecurityCouncilReport. Accessed May 22, 2016. http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/ monthly-forecast/2015-12/south_sudan_16.php.

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the Sudanese people. In the Panel of Experts on South Sudan, the UN Security Council presented a number of explicit evidences, that the Government has violated systematically the state legislation buying arms with money from oil production 6. On the grounds, several crucial changes are necessary to take place in the Petroleum Act 2012 and the Petroleum Revenue Management Bill, providing transparency of the oil contracts and preventing them from corruptive mechanisms (Deng, 2015) 7. Basing on these facts and finding, the Report considers the role of the African Union Commission as a central for the conflict’s resolution. In accordance with this understanding, the Report will answer to the main question: ‘What particular measures the African Union Commission should undertake, in order to deal with the conflict in South Sudan?’. The analysis will pay also attention to the specific factors of the respond to the crisis, putting into perspective two sub-questions: ‘What is the political and energy impact of the South Sudanese Civil war on the region?’ and ‘What is the influence, that foreign actors have on the conflict?’

Methodology The Report intends to found its analysis on several types of informational sources. As a primary source, the Report uses the official documents of the African Union, which seeks to provide the most accurate and reliable recommendations. The Reports also examines the report of the UN Security Council 8, as it presents a fully interpretation of the conflict in specific areas: human rights, political violation of government mechanisms, arms imports, etc. In order to understand the mechanisms of the conflict’s development, the analysis pay attention to government documents (The Transitional Constitution of the Republic of South Sudan, The Constitutions of South Sudanese States) and oil legislation (the Petroleum Act 2012 and the Petroleum Revenue Management Bill). The Report will provide explicit evidences, that the oil production is 6

“Payment was made in two instalments, with the first, of $21 million, processed through the Ministry of

Petroleum and Mining. This was a clear violation of government procedures for such transactions, which are supposed to pass through the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning. The Minister of Defence and Veterans’ Affairs then instructed the Minister of Finance and Economic Planning on 15 September to pay the second instalment, potentially indicating either a change in procedure or a lack of available hard currency in the Ministry of Petroleum and Mining.”Final report of the Panel of Experts on South Sudan established pursuant to Security Council resolution 2206 (2015). 7

David K. Deng, Oil and Sustainable Peace in South Sudan, 2015

Final report of the Panel of Experts on South Sudan established pursuant to Security Council resolution 2206 (2015). 8

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central for the conflict’s escalation, as well for its expansion. The reports of the UNMISS and Human Rights Watch would be a solid base for the assessment of the humanitarian situation in South Sudan. Furthermore, the documentary movie ‘Save South Sudan’ (2015) by the photo journalists and filmmakers Robert Young Pelton and Tim Freccia will illustrate an objective perception of the war’s reality among the rebels. The informational capacity of the Report will be supplemented by a number of newspaper articles about the conflict.

Scenario 1 refers to the imposing of peace in South Sudan, paying attention on the challenges of the post-war period.

Rebel leader Riek Machar is being sworn in a vice-president in a new unity government with President Salva Kiir on April 26, 2016. PHOTO | AFP

Background According to some intelligence sources in the state departments, in the time when Kiir and Machar have governed together they have almost created two separate

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governments9. In a period of post-conflict reconstruction, such a potential division could hide many trammels for its successful accomplishment. A strong sign for the Commission should be the fact, that the two leaders were not able to work and cooperate for almost three years, even though a series of attempts were made. The political clashes between Kiir and Macher have expanded in ethnic tension, which is likely to continue even after the Machar’s return 10. In a long term, the peace between Dinka and Nuer cannot be reached only though the involving of former rebel leaders in the government, but it will depend mostly on their ability in responding to the two ethnic group’s needs. The Commission should also take under consideration the reports of a number of nongovernment and international organizations, that witness the numerous abuses of human rights both from the regular Sudanese army (SPLM) and the SPLM-IO 11. In order to respond accurately to the current humanitarian catastrophe in South Sudan, the Report advises the Commission to take its time in assessing and evaluating the military crimes, that have been committed by the two military fractions. The built of security and stability in the country could be achieved only in a stable environment with a high level of political accountability. The role of the Commission is more than crucial especially in these circumstances. According to its mission to “Act as the custodian of the AU Constitutive Act and OAU/AU legal instruments” and “Assist Member States in implementing the AU’s programs” 12, the Commission is responsible for the compliance and implementation of the AU’s norms and values in the AU member states. The report considers as a serious obstacle for the work of the Commission the fact, that South Sudan is the only one member of the AU, who has still not signed and ratified Final report of the Panel of Experts on South Sudan established pursuant to Security Council resolution 2206 (2015). 9

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"After the Malakal Massacre, Investigating South Sudan War Crimes." TheDailyBeast. Accessed May 25, 2016. http:// www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/24/after-the-malakal-massacre-investigating-south-sudan-war-crimes.html. 11

"SOUTH SUDAN 2015/2016." AmnestyInternational. Accessed May 21, 2016. https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/ africa/south-sudan/report-south-sudan/.; "South Sudan: Army Abuses Spread West, In South Sudan’s Brutal Chaos, Civilians in the Middle, South Sudan: Terrifying Lives of Child Soldiers, Dispatches: Lack of Justice Driving South Sudan Deeper into Despair, Etc." South Sudan. Accessed May 24, 2016. https://www.hrw.org/africa/south-sudan.; "The State of Human Rights in the Protracted Conflict in South Sudan (4 December 2015) Released on 21 January 2016, Attacks on Civilians in Bentiu & Bor, April 2014 Released 9 January 2015 , Conflict in South Sudan: A Human Rights Report, 8 May 2014, Etc." UNMISS. Accessed May 23, 2016. http://unmiss.unmissions.org/Default.aspx?tabid=5805. 12

STATUTES OF THE COMMISSION OF THE AFRICAN UNION, ASSEMBLY OF THE AFRICAN UNION

First Ordinary Session, July 2002. 8

the Constitutive Act. The intensive situation in South Sudan requires the taking of a number of political, economic and legal measures, which the AU could accomplish though its executive and standing organs. The conflict also hints the lack of legislative and political mechanisms of the AU, in forcing South Sudan to respect its values. Such a disregard of the organization’s rules put the Union in an unfavorable position, regarding two major facts. First, the Union must rely on international support in the resolving of conflicts and second it can lead to miss of institutional authority among the other members.

Changes in the Constitutive Act On this base, the Commission should initiate a proposal to the Assembly for the implementation of changes in the Constitutive Act. The proposal should refer both to the accession process of a new member and its performance for a period of five years after its acceptance in the Union. The change in the Act should request to the Commission the formulation of an opinion on the country’s readiness to become a member state. The Commission and the candidate should start examining its domestic laws and those of the AU one year prior to the applying for membership, in order to find what differences exist in the two legislative systems. During this period, the Commission should also create a special panel in the county, which will provide the Commission with monthly reports on several state indicators: economy, respect of democratic norms and principles at all levels in the country, human rights, gender rights, and natural resources legislation. After the end of the one year period, the Commission has to prepare a final report, constituting its assessment on the above mentioned indicators and its option about the readiness of the country to become member of the AU. The report has to be send to the Assembly, which will discuss it and make a final decision upon it. If the AU Assembly decides, that the country should be accepted, the county must sing and ratify the Constitutive Act not more than a year after the Assembly approval. If the country does not sign and ratify the Act or it does not enable and support the work of the special panel, the Act should require the Assemble to vote the annulation of the country’s candidacy. In the first year, the county will be supported in the implementation of the AU legislation by the special panel. The standing organ will continue to provide the Commission with monthly monitoring, as well as the domestic organs with information about their institutional reorganization. In case that, the Assembly refuses the 9

candidature, the country should be allowed to apply again not earlier than a year after the rejection.

Request for the Panel of Wise’s active position The second favorable action in the post-war period is for the Chairperson to request for the active role of the Panel of Wise’s (PoW) good offices in two general aspects: first as a builder of political trust and second as a mediator and humanitarian envoy. The reason why the Commission is advised to seek the PoW’s assistance is tightly related to the lack of normative control, which the AU’s organs have over the South Sudanese government. Consequently, the Report believes, that the respect and admiration on which, the standing organ enjoys would enable in the building of political stability in South Sudan. The rich political experience, which the members possess, would undoubtedly become a sustainable support both in the reconstruction of trust at both domestic and international level. Another founded reason, for the Commission to use the PoW as diplomatic bridge, is the fact, that Dr. Speciosa Wandira Kazibwe was assigned as the United Nations Special Envoy for HIV/AIDS in Africa 13. In 2014, the South Sudan Aids Commission raised an alarm about the rising HIV/Aids pervasiveness rates 14. The conflict had a huge negative impact on these rates, due to the number of sexual abuses, that were committed during the war. The PoW’s diplomatic experience and relations, would be a strategic step for the Commission to gain political position in South Sudan.

Challenges The major obstacles, which the Commission could face in the implementation of the recommendations are related to two key aspects. The first refers to the time period, which is necessary for the request’s drafting, its consideration, acceptance from the Assembly and eventual establishment. Moreover, it is possible, that the South Sudanese government sees the request as an infraction against the county’s sovereign rights, which could influence negatively the situation. The second aspect reflects the unchanged political elite in South Sudan, who is responsible for the state government over the last 13

Specioza Naigaga Wandira Kazibwe, is an Ugandan surgeon and politician. She was Vice President of Uganda from 1994 to 2003. She was the first woman in Africa to hold the position of vice-president of a sovereign nation. In August 2013, she was appointed by the United Nations's Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon as United Nations Special Envoy for HIV/AIDS in Africa. 14

"South Sudan: Raising HIV Awareness among Displaced Communities." UNAIDS. May 23, 2016. http://www.unaids.org/ en/resources/presscentre/featurestories/2014/september/20140908ssudanhivknowledge

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threes years. The fact, that the same people who started, expanded and lead the conflict would be responsible for its resolution, could be a serious obstacle.

Scenario 2 refers to the plausible continuous of the conflict in South Sudan and the measures, that the Commission should eventually undertake.

Machar with some of the commanders of the forces

Children were used as soldiers both by the

controlled by him.

South Sudanese government and the SPLM-IO.

Background The report highlights some likely risks, that can occur in future and threaten the peace in South Sudan. As a leader of the rebel movement, Machar was recognized by a number of rebel forces as the highest commander of their fraction. Unfortunately, in their biggest part, the forms of military partnership were based on the deadlock, which Nuer tribesmen have faced during the war, rather than on common values. The documentary movie “Saving South Sudan” 15 presents the rebel’s reality, showing its meaningless side. The military structure is ill organized, characterized by a weak hierarchical system. Most of the men, who fight on the side of Machar are not even payed, as they are motivated by the desire of revenge and survival. The intensive situation in South Sudan demands the exerting of strong leadership, which could be accountable for the leading within the process of peace-rebuilding.

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Pelton, and Freccia. "Saving South Sudan, How South Sudan Got Lost." VICE. Accessed May 25, 2016. http:// www.vice.com/read/saving-south-sudan.

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The expanded ethnic tension in the country could not be solved only by the return of Machar in the government. Without taking any measures, the conflict could easily degrade. Over the war period, the conflict was drawn by two major factors: oil sales and arms imports. These two elements were understood by both rival sides as the most valuable and powerful possessions. Hence, the fights were mainly driven by the seeking of control over the oil production territories, which would provide finances for more arms. Indeed, the arms imports have been the major cause for a number of corruptive practices, manipulation of government mechanism and foreign interference. These processes led to a sustainable drop in oil and non-oil GDP, followed by a dramatic economic crisis in South Sudan 16.

Arms Embargo During the war period, the number of people involved in the GRSS’s 17 (The Government of Republic of South Sudan) decision-making process of acquisition arms was considerably decreased, creating condition for corruptive practices 18. They represented the few institutions within the Government, that allowed them to reach a huge amount of money from petroleum sales. Only for the last year, the Government spent on arms about $70 million, while one part of the payments were made though the Ministry of Petroleum and Mining and the other with the strong pressure from the Ministry of Defence and Veterans’ Affairs towards the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning 19. The Commission should pay attention to the fact, that among the arms suppliers of South Sudan are Ukraine, China, UAE and Uganda.

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"Country Analysis Brief: Sudan and South Sudan." EIA. Accessed May 27, 2016. https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/ analysis_includes/countries_long/Sudan_and_South_Sudan/sudan.pdf.;”REPUBLIC OF SOUTH SUDAN 2014 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—STAFF REPORT; STAFF STATEMENT; AND PRESS RELEASE." IMF. Accessed May 26, 2016. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14345.pdf. 17

The Government of Republic of South Sudan

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“On the basis of a thorough review of documentation, supplemented by interviews with multiple, independent sources with first-hand knowledge, the Panel has determined that the key individuals involved in decisions concerning the acquisition of arms are Kiir, the Minister of Defence and Veterans’ Affairs, Kuol Manyang, the SPLA Chief of General Staff, Paul Malong, the Director General of the Internal Security Bureau, Akol Koor, the Minister of Petroleum and Mining, Stephen Dieu Dau, and, to a lesser extent, the Minister of Finance and Economic Planning, David Deng Athorbei, and the Minister of National Security, Obuto Mamur. “ Final report of the Panel of Experts on South Sudan established pursuant to Security

Council resolution 2206 (2015). Final report of the Panel of Experts on South Sudan established pursuant to Security Council resolution 2206 (2015). 19

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The opposition had limited funds and there were fewer sources of arms. The Security Council revealed, that the majority of arms logistics were made by the Sudanese authorities, that has become the main arms supplier of the opposition. The Report recommends, that the Commission calls the IGAD and the Pan-Parliament to impose arms embargo on South Sudan, preventing an eventual degradation of the conflict. First, the appeal for arms embargo will facilitate the establishment of the AU Parliament as the main legislative organ of the AU. Second, it will send a clear message to the international community about the erosion of the conflict and the readiness of the AU’s to deal with the situation though its own mechanisms. Moreover, the Commission should monitor closely the arms exports of Sudan and Uganda, working with the two governments for stoping any further arms sales to South Sudan.

Monitoring of the oil legislation The oil regulatory framework in South Sudan is drawn from a number of pieces of legislation, including the Transitional Constitution (2011), the Petroleum Act (2012) and the Petroleum Revenue Management Bill (2013), while the last one is still waiting to be signed by the President. The highest value of the agreements is the provision of accountability and transparency in the domestic petroleum sector 20. Sadly, in the case of the South Sudanese political realities these principles are still written principles, rather than regulative legitimate practices. The sections 18, 67, 79 of the Petroleum Act 21 require that the information of the oil contracts and sales must be made public by the Ministry of Petroleum and Mining, justifying their benefits in the best of the country. Unfortunately, such an information is not available at the Ministry site, nor at the Government official page. On the other hand, the Petroleum Revenue Management Bill requires all petroleum revenues to be deposited in one single fund, which is being divided between the national budget, the oil revenue stabilization account and most importantly the future generation fund 22.

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Global Witness, SOUTH SUDAN: THE CALL FOR A MORATORIUM ON NEW OIL CONTRACTS, 2014

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"The Petroleum Act, 2012." SouthSudanSnkara. Accessed May 26, 2016. http://www.southsudanankara.org/docs/The Petroleum Act 2012.pdf. 22

"PETROLEUM REVENUE MANAGEMENT (AMENDMENT) BILL, 2015." Parlament. Accessed May 25, 2016. http:// www.parliament.gh/assets/file/BILLS FOR 2016/Petroleum Revenue Management_ (Amendment) Bill, 2015.pdf.

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According to the Center for Peace and Development Studies 23, the eventual continuation of the conflict for a period of five years will cost the country around 158 billion dollars. For the same period, the conflict will cost the neighboring countries 23 billion dollars and the international community around 30 billion dollars. The oil production plays a crucial role for the South Sudanese economy, as it accounts for about 60% of GDP 24 . In 2012 South Sudan has produced more than 350,000 barrels per day, which production decreased roughly after the start of the conflict to less than 160,000 barrels per day 25.

The Commission understands the importance of the oil resources for the South Sudanese economy, but the war conditions make them even more crucial. Therefore, the Commission is advised to create a special panel, which would work in two main directions: monitoring of the accountable deployment and implementation of the oil legislation. The regulation of the petroleum sector could pave the way for preventing 23

"South Sudan: The Cost of War. An Estimation of the Economic and Nancial Costs of Ongoing Con Ict." Frontier Economics in Collaboration with the Center for Con Ict Resolution (CECORE) and the Centre for Peace and Development Studies (CPDS). 2015. 24

"South Sudan: Economic Overview." WorldBank. Accessed May 27, 2016. http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ southsudan/overview. 25

"Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)." EIA. Accessed May 28, 2016. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf.

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future political and economic crisis in South Sudan. As it can be seen at the graph below, the major part of violent acts have been committed in the oil production areas. If the conflict continues, the Commission should urge the signing of the Bill and the provision of transparency in the oil sector. The Commission has a well founded reason to establish such a special panel, preventing violation with funds of oil production. Moreover, the Commission realizes the negative effects, which these practices could have on the energy sector in the whole region.

The oil production is mainly concentrated in Jonglei and Lakes states, where blocks B1, B2 and B3 are constructed.

Challenges The Reports considers, that the Commission could experience serious difficulties, dealing with the possible continuation of the war. The major obstacle of the decision for imposing Arms Embargo comes from the fact, that both the GRSS and SLMP-IO could find foreign arms suppliers. However, such a political action aims at drawing the international attention to the conflict and achieving an eventual imposing of UN Arms Embargo on South Sudan. The creating of panel for monitoring of the oil legislation could also face a serious political opposition. Yet, the Commission should understand, that even an eventual resistance could have positive impact on the conflict, by arising a political discussion of the country and its neighbors’s economic losses.

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Scenario 3 refers to the plausible deterioration of the conflict and its expansion beyond the borders of South Sudan.

For the first time in its history, China made a decision to join UN peace keeping mission, sending troops in South Sudan.

The people of South Sudan experience one of the worst humanitarian crisis, that Africa has ever seen. Ethiopian troops have crossed into South Sudan in search of more than 100 children who were kidnapped.

Background In April 2016, South Sudanese raiders crossed the border with Ethiopia and attacked more than 10 villages across the Gambella region 26. The Ethiopian government said, that more than 200 people were killed and around 130 children were held hostage. It is believed, that the attack was held by Murle tribe, which has benefited during the war and has acquired a lot of small weapons 27. Several days after the assault, the Ethiopian army went in South Sudan, in order to find and release the kidnapped children 28. 26

"South Sudanese Gunmen Kill 140 Nuer in Gambella." SudanTribune. Accessed May 27, 2016. http:// www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article58659. 27

"7 Questions about the Gambella Raid in Ethiopia." RADIO TAMAZUJ. Accessed May 25, 2016. https://radiotamazuj.org/ en/article/7-questions-about-gambella-raid-ethiopia. 28

Berhane, Daniel. "Ethiopian Troops Combing 2 Areas for Abducted Children, S.Sudan Gunmen." HornAffairs. Accessed May 25, 2016. http://hornaffairs.com/en/2016/04/21/ethiopian-military-searching-abducted-two-areas-south-sudan/.

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The Report has already analyzed for the Commission the military chaos among the rebels and the potential threat, which hides. Once again, the analysis aims at bringing the Commission’s attention to the fact, that some of the other ethnic groups in South Sudan have felt excluded from the IGAD’s peace process. The Report sees a need to warn the Commission for possible clashes between the tribes in South Sudan. Therefore, the Commission should be tightly involved in the investigation process of the Ethiopian attack, supporting the cooperation between Addis Ababa and Juba. On the map below, the Commission could see the diversity of ethnic groups in South Sudan. Most importantly, the Report would like to pay attention to the fact, that in the regions of oil production (Unity, Upper Nile, Warrap and Jonglei) , the population is almost equally divided between Dinka and Nuer.

Ethnic boundaries shown on this map are not an exact representationWhite of theNile situation inSennar the Country.

Distribution of Ethnic Groups in Southern Sudan The administrative units and their names shown on this map do not imply acceptance or recognition by the Government of Southern Sudan. This map aims only to support the work of the Humanitarian Community.

White Nile

Sudan

Blue Nile

Renk

Renk

Southern Darfur

Southern Kordofan

) "

Admin. Units County Level

Berta

Shilluk

State Capitals

Admin. Units State Level Berta

Manyo Melut

Manyo

Country Boundary International Boundaries

Shilluk Fashoda Pariang

Abyei

Panyikang

Abiem nhom Twic

Aweil East Aweil We st

Rubkona

Gogrial East

Longochuk

Dinka (Padeng)

Fanga k

Unity

Nuer (Jikany)

Northern Bahr el Ghazal " ) Aweil

Luakpiny/Nasir

Aweil South

Raga

Koch

Tonj North

Nuer (Adok) Nuer (Lou)

Jur Chol

Chad

Nuer (Nyong) Rumbe k North

Jur Riv er

Balanda Bagari

Tonj South

Rumbe k Centre

Red Sea

Sudan

Central African Republic

Tambura

Dem ocr atic Republic of Cong o

Uganda

Democratic Republic of Congo

Kenya

Baka

50

100

200

Mundri West

) Yambio "

Lapon

Nyanwara

Bari

Juba

Makaraka

Torit

Lainya

Kakwa

400

Madi Kuku

The information shown on this map does not imply official recognition or endorsement of any physical, political boundaries or feature names by the United Nations or other collaborative organizations. UN OCHA and affiliated organizations are not liable for damages of any kind related to the use of this data. Users noting errors or omissions are encouraged to contact the IM Unit, OCHA at [email protected]

Code: SS-0132 Date: 24/12/09 IMU OCHA SS

Morobo

Lubwara

Toposa

Nyangatum

Eastern Equatoria Lolubo

Pajulu

300

Kapoe ta Eas t

Boya

Lopit Lokoya

) " Juba

Yei

Kapoe ta North

Pori Central Equatoria

Mundu

Nzara

Mundari

Mundri East

Avokaya

Kilometers 0

Tere keka

Moru

Western Equatoria

Jie

Mvolo

Eritr ea

Ibba

Pibor

) Bor "

Aweria l

Bongo

Yam bio

Ngalam (Kachipo)

Dinka (Bor)

Dinka (Aliab)

Maridi

Southern Sudan

Murle

Yirol West

Jur Bel

Ezo

Anyuak

Bor South

Dinka (Atwot) Wulu

Ethiopia

Ethiopia

Pochalla

Yirol East

Rumbe k Eas t

Nagero

Jonglei

Dinka (Twic JS)

Dinka (Ciec)

) Rumbek "

Azande

Central Afr ican Republic

Twic East

Dinka (Agar) Lakes

Akobo

Uror

Dinka (Nyarweng)

Nuer (Ador) Cueibet

Dinka (Hol)

Duk

Panyijar

Dinka (Gok)

Balanda Bor Jur Chol

Egypt

Libya

Tonj East

) Wau "

Western Bahr el Ghazal

Wau

Maiwut

Ulang

Ayod

Leer

Mayendit

Dinka (Rek)

Chad

Nyirol

Nuer (Gawaar)

Warrap

) Kwajok " Fertit

µ

Nuer (Jegai)

Gogrial West Aweil Centre

Data Sources: National and State boundaries based on Russian Sudan Map Series, 1:200k, 1970-ties. County Boundaries digitized based on Statistical Yearbook 2009 Southern Sudan Commission for Census, Statistics and Evaluation - SSCCSE. Digitized by IMU OCHA Southern Sudan

Baliet

Canal (Khor Fulus)

Nuer (Jikany) Nuer (Lek)

Nuer (Bul)

) Malakal "

Guit

) "

Mayom

Dinka (Twic WS)

Dinka (Malual)

Burum

Malakal

Dinka (Ruweng) Aweil North

Dinka (Abiliang)

Upper Nile

Sudan

Maban

Magwi

Kapoe ta South

Latuka

) "

Torit Acholi

Budi

Dindinga

Kenya

Ikotos

Lango

Kajo-Keji

Uganda

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Military intervention According to Article (4) of the Constitutive Act of the African Union, states that the Union has the right to undertake a military intervention “as well as a serious threat to legitimate order to restore peace and stability to the Member State of the Union upon the recommendation of the Peace and Security Council” 29. In regard to the exposed evidences, the report considers the expansion of the conflict as a likely outcome of the war. Therefore, the Chairperson has to urge and advise the Peace and Security Council, in with authorities is the request for military intervention in South Sudan to the Assembly. The complex crisis in South Sudan cannot be bypassed anymore if the conflict expands. It will seriously affect the security and stability of the whole region. Over the last five years, South Sudan has become a critical center for controversial business and political interests, that have benefited in different ways from the chaos in the country 30. Although, several government and non-government actors have actively advocated for the peace rebuilding in the county, no sufficient results have seemed to take place 31. Thus, the military intervention is seen as a manner for the AU’s to reinforce its political position among its international and regional partners. The Commission should also seek the support of the Chinese government and business within the building of the economic and political stability in South Sudan. China has strong business interests in the region, which could be seriously harmed by eventual regional war (Large, 2013). The Report noticed that, the political processes of the IGAD’s peace agreement were mainly predominated by the American position, which was defined as a serious obstacle for the peace-building. The report finds the involvement of the Chinese government within the business and political activities of South Sudan as an urgent step for the Commission on its way to achieve peace. For the Commission, it is also vital to assess the Sudanese

29

"CONSTITUTIVE ACT OF THE AFRICAN UNION." African Union. Accessed May 22, 2016. http://www.au.int/en/ sites/default/files/ConstitutiveAct_EN.pdf. 30

"The Nexus of Corruption and Conflict in South Sudan. July 2015." TheSentry. 2015. Accessed May 28, 2016. https:// cdn.thesentry.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/06131651/NexusCorruptionConflict_SouthSudan.pdf. 31

In August 2015, the IGAD’s peace agreement has been signed by representatives of the United States, the Kingdom of Norway, The United Kingdom, Italy (on behalf of the IGAD Partners Forum), the European Union, and the United Nations, as Witnesses. The sides of the agreement have also actively participated in during the peace-keeping talks. "IGAD - PLus Statement on the South Sudan Peace Agreement." IGAD. Accessed May 26, 2016. http://igad.int/index.php? option=com_content&view=article&id=1195:igad-plus-statement-on-the-south-sudan-peace-agreement&catid=1:latestnews&Itemid=150.

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government’s interests in the conflict, which have historical, economic and political roots and could undoubtedly influence its dimensions.

Commission for Monitoring and Evaluation The report has presented a number of facts and evidence for the complexity and seriousness of the conflict in South Sudan. In regard to these statements, the Commission can no longer bypass the need of establishment of commission for monitoring and evaluation of the South Sudanese civil war (CMESSW). The CMESSW should be mainly responsible for the political and economic assessments of the South Sudanese government’s actions. Among the authorities of the special commission would be the power to urge directly the Commission, the Chairperson and the Peace and Security Council for potential threats of the security and the peace in the country. This procedure would improve the effectiveness of the information flows in several administrative directions. The analysis would like to also pay special attention to another inevitable and sustainable initiative, that the Commission can address to the Assembly. The proposal can recommend to the Assembly, 2% of the AU budget to go in a new fund called ‘Our Generation is Our Future’. The fund will operate through investments, which aim at investing in project for the improvement of the physical and philological health of young African people in affected regions. The Fund’s projects will not only target the physical consequences of the war, but also the emotional as well. The Commission has to appeal the Assembly, that the generation which is living in war or post-war circumstances, hides a huge potential for future conflict as a result of the experienced violence. The Commission should initiate a project for humanitarian aid, implementing the strategies and objectives of the ‘Our Generation is Our Future’. The significance of the fund is based on the fact, that the AU realizes its accountability for future generation, investing in children’s instability the Union creates new future.

Challenges Some of the probable difficulties, which are likely to appear during the implementation of the third scenarios’s advices are based on the previous experience, which the AU has in such military interventions. Although, the AU has more than a decade in operating as a trans-national organ in Africa, its experience in peacekeeping missions is 19

significantly weak (Williams, 2011). This fact is logically connected to the strong military presence of foreign actors (France, China, US, and others) in different African regions, who are trying to protect their investments. South Sudan is not an exception, as the two serious foreign presences of the US and China were mostly part of the problem, instead of its resolution. Indeed, in this context for the Commission is crucial to present accurately to the PPC the gravity of the conflict and the need of military intervention.

Conclusion To sum up, the Report recommends to the Commission to take an active role both as an advisor and a prosecutor of the African Union. The values rooted within the AU’s legislation, require a strong political and economic will for their accomplishment. The goals, which the Union wants to achieve would be primarily a result of their actions today. After all, the generations today will assess the achievements tomorrow, proceeding or destroying them. The fate of these two actions is in the AU’s hands. Investing energy and power in the instability today, will provide stability tomorrow.

Children holding the Transnational Constitution, 2011 of South Sudan

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