Apr 2, 2015 - Sunbury WA 6231, Aus tralla; The Unive~lty of wesmn Australia, Crawley WA ..... The densiry of Poe TR4 infection within each site with age.
Journal of Plant Diseases and Protwlon, 122 (5/6), 229-237, 2015, ISSN 1861-3829. C> Eugen Ulmer KG, Stuttgart
Potential economic impact of Panama disease (tropical race 4) on the Australian banana industry David c Cook•·, Andrews Taylor', Rachel A Meldruml 8< Andre Drenth• ' Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia. Sunbury WA 6231, Aus tralla; The Unive~lty of wesmn Australia, Crawley WA 6001, Australia ' Murdoch University, Murdoch WA 6150. Australia l Department of Primary lndusuy and Fisheries, Darwin NT osor, Australla; The University of Queensland, St Lucia QLD 4072, Australia • Centre for Plant S)6 Minimum Infection density, N"'"' (~/ml) Maximum Infection density, K (~/m')d Minimum number of satellite sites generated In a slngle time step, 5mm (n) Maximum number of satellite sites generated In a single time step. S"'" (#)• 1nuins1c race of new foci generation pe, unit area of Infection.µ(• per ml)d Discount rate(%) Demand elastlclt)" Prevailing market price of bananas In the first time step (S per 1)' Treatment coses upon detection (S per ha)' Yield reduction despite control {%)S
Uniform (0.0.1.0• lO·') Binomial (1.0.0.6) Pert (1.0•104 ,1.5•10'.2.0•10') Pert (10.15.20) LO•lOl l.4•10• Pert (010.0.15,0.20) l.O•JO-• Pere (100.SS0.1000) 0
Pere (0.0.2.S.S.O) Pert (l.O•JO·l,3.0•ltt·l,S.O•IO-') 5
Uniform{· 1.1,· l .O) 1900 Pert {8.0•JOl,9.0•lOl.LO•lO') 100
• Biosecu,lty Aus11alla (2008) b Derived horn Sapoukhlna et al. (2010) ' Abs (2011). Note l ha• 10 ooo ml d Spedfled with reference to Waage et al. (2005) • Ulubasoglu et al. (2011) 'ASsumes average density of planting of 2 000 seems per ha and removal. transport. destruction and chemical costs amounting to approximately 54.50 per uee. This ls inclusive of labour (team of three at a combined rare of S150 hr>). bulldozing equipment (5100 per hr at 20 hrs per ha). truck hire (S75 hr') and Incendiaries (S60 ha· 1 for green waste). No chemlcal buffer zone is deemed necessary as the pathogen Is soll·borne. IOvtr 95% of bananas grown In Australla arc of the Cavendish variety which ls susceptible to Focrn4 (Hennessy etal. 2005}. If a plantatJon becomes Infected with the disease It cannot be cont1olled using fungicides. no, can it be eradicated from the soil using fumigants. Research conducted in the Northern Territory has Identified a number of resistant varieties. but at chis stage none are suitable as Immediate replacements for the cavendlsh variety (Daly & Walduck 2006). Hence. after Infection yield loss per uee Is assumed to be 100%. JPlilnt Dfs.Prott
