Potential of Rainfed Agriculture and Smallholder Farmers in Food Self ...

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Potential of Rainfed Agriculture and Smallholder Farmers in Food Self-Sufficiency Kamel Shideed Ahmed Mazid Theib Oweis Maarten van Ginkel

arab environment: Food Security

Nearly 70 percent of the world’s hungry people (estimated at 870 million) live in rural areas and depend predominantly on agriculture and food production for their livelihoods. Arab countries are no exception. Here, some 25 percent of population is poor and 76 percent of the poor live in rural areas (WB, FAO and IFAD, 2009). In Arab countries, nearly 44 percent of the population lives in rural areas, where poverty is disproportionally intensified. In Egypt and Sudan, some two-thirds of the population are rural. In Yemen, the rural population accounts for 70 percent of the total population. For these countries, as well as Morocco, agriculture is the main source of employment and livelihoods. In other drylands countries in this region, (Tunisia, Algeria, Syria, Iraq) agriculture is also a considerable job market. Across all Arab countries, agriculture employs nearly onethird of total labor force. Globally, Arab countries are the most vulnerable in terms of their food security. The cereal import dependency ratio of all Arab countries is nearly 74 percent, set against the average of 1990-2011 period, which is the highest globally. The world cereal import dependency ratio is about 16 percent and that of developing countries is 15.5 percent. As such, Arab countries are the most vulnerable to shortages of food supply and fluctuations of food prices in the international markets. A wide range of tested and proven technology solutions is available to countries to address these issues. But the adoption rates of improved technologies remain low due to several constraints, notably the lack of an enabling policy environment, that is critical to enhance large-scale uptake and adoption. Well designed and implemented policies are the key to the efficient use of scarce resources and farm income growth – two factors that help ensure improved national food security. A high level of national capacity in the Agricultural Research and Development sector (R&D) is the main factor behind the success of some countries in achieving sustainable and long-term agricultural productivity growth. Studies of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) show that public investments in agricultural R&D are a strong determinant of agricultural productivity growth in developed and developing countries. Enabling policy and institutional environments is a further factor contributing to TFP growth. This chapter focuses on rainfed agriculture, which accounts for more than 80% of the region’s cropland, the bulk of its food staples.

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Potential of Rainfed Agriculture and Smallholder Farmers in Food Self-Sufficiency

I. Introduction Although Global Hunger Index (GHI) fell by nearly 34 percent between 1990 and 2013, some 870 million people remain chronically undernourished (Welt Hunger Hilfe, IFPRI and Concern worldwide, 2013). Despite remarkable growth in agriculture in the past 50 years, the world still faces a critical challenge of feeding a population expected to reach nine billion by the year 2050. The goal for the agricultural sector is no longer simply to maximize productivity, but to optimize across a complex combination of production, rural development, environmental, social equity and food consumption outcomes (Pretty et al., 2010). In dry areas, where water is the most limiting factor, achieving this goal will require coordinated action on: optimizing the use of scarce water resources; developing policies that support more productive and sustainable food production systems; narrowing the gap between potential and actual crop yields; and diversifying farming systems, with intensive but sustainable production methods. Future growth in food production must come mainly from productivity growth and intensification, rather than expansion of cultivated areas. One priority will be to reduce

the difference between yield potential and actual yields achieved today on-farm. Actual yields are of the order of 60 percent of potential, as documented in a range of different farming systems in south-east Asia, Central Asia and Latin America (Godfray et al., 2010). Closing this yield gap involves transferring known technologies and practices to farmers, and “putting in place the institutional structure – including markets, finance, and approaches to manage risk – that farmers need to adopt the technology” (Keating et al., 2010). Investments in agricultural research and development have been declining (in real terms) in most of Arab countries. Renewed public investment in agricultural research is urgently needed. And today, research must address a more complex set of challenges, including natural resources management and climate change, as well as the traditional objectives of increasing food production and agricultural productivity.

II. Constraints to Agricultural Production in Dry Areas Dry areas cover more than 40 percent of the world’s land area and are home to 2.5 billion people—over one-third of the global population. Of these, one-third depends on dryland agricultural production systems for their food security and livelihoods. Under these conditions, diversification of farming systems through crop rotation, practices such as conservation agriculture, effective and efficient use of water and other agricultural inputs have been pinpointed as a high priority by the international development and research community – for action to enhance food security and reduce vulnerability to climate change (Amman Declaration, February 2010). Concerns about small-scale farmers in the face of modernization and globalization are rising. Price changes in international markets are often transmitted into the domestic markets, which affect every consumer and can have a disproportionately negative effect on small farmers (Huang, Wang and Qui, 2012). Higher and more volatile food prices are a major cause for concern. The 2008 spike in food prices


significantly reduced the purchasing power of poor people in developing countries – for example, by up to 32 percent in Arab countries (Shideed, 2008). Such price spikes are likely to re-occur in the future. A recent study on the “water footprint of humanity1” shows that water used by the agricultural sector accounts for nearly 92 percent of annual global freshwater consumption, the largest proportion of which is the green water footprint (FP) accounting for 74 percent (Hoekstra and Mekonnen, 2012). Industrial production contributes 4.4 percent to the total WF and domestic water supply 3.6 percent. The global annual average WF related to all sectors (agricultural, industrial and domestic supply) is 74 percent green, 11 percent blue and 15 percent gray. Farmers generally over-irrigate as a result of their perceptions of water requirements and their expectations of rainfall and market values. Studies in Syria, Iraq, Jordan and Egypt – by ICARDA and the UN Economic and Social Commission for Central and West Africa – showed that farmers over-irrigated wheat by 20-60 percent (Shideed, et. al., 2005). Producers perceive water as a fixed input in the short run, but allocable among competing crops on the farm. As water prices were highly subsidized, they did not have a major impact on water allocation. Water use efficiency is low in many areas. For example, it is 40-60 percent for irrigated agriculture in Syria (MunlaHasan, 2007). This low figure is due to the widespread use of traditional surface irrigation methods with their low efficiency, high seepage and evaporation losses and uneven field coverage. A recent study (Yigezu et al. 2011b) measured the economic and environmental impacts of wheat farmers in three provinces in Syria if they would shift from traditional supplemental irrigation to improved supplemental irrigation (ISI). At the current adoption level (22.3 percent), ISI helps save at least 120 million m³ of water per year. Introducing a water use charge of US$0.20 for every cubic meter applied in excess of the recommended application rate can lead to nearuniversal adoption and conserve an additional 46 million m³ of water per year (Yigezu et al., 2011a). Such a policy would also increase total

farm profits by US$ 16.14 million per year, and generate a total yearly impact of US$ 36-90 million. Climate change is amplifying food security challenges, as it impacts all aspects of food security. It affects crop yields, the availability and distribution of freshwater and rainfall, food prices (Vermeulen, 2014). In summary, the problem faced by people and countries in dry areas amounts to more than resource scarcity. It is a combination of resource limitations, land and water degradation, and the low efficiency of resource use. Under conditions of resource limitations in dry areas – particularly water – future increases in productivity and production for improving food security and ensuring environmental quality, need to come from enhancing the efficiency of resource-use – rather than using more inputs or increasing the food production area. A wide range of technology solutions is available. Enabling policies that encourage wider adoption and higher resource-use efficiency are critical to achieve productivity growth and food security targets.

III. Status of Food Security and Contribution of Rainfed Farming to Total Food Production in Arab Countries The majority of Arab Countries are ranked “low” in terms of severity of hunger (GHI≤4.9), with Sudan and Yemen classified in the “alarming” category (GHI= 20.0-29.9). In total, there are more than 15 million of undernourished people in Arab Countries. Most of Arab Countries’ food production is in rainfed areas. Nearly 83 percent of seasonal crop areas are rainfed (Table 1). The total rainfed area of seasonal crops is more than 35 million hectares in 2011, while the irrigated area of seasonal crops is 7.9 million hectares. In addition, there are more than 5 million hectares of permanent crops in rainfed areas and nearly 3 million hectares under irrigation. Most of farmers in rainfed areas are smallholder farmers, where agriculture and farming are the main source of their livelihoods.

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table 1


Area of Seasonal Crops under Rainfed (percent)

Country

2010

2011

Average

Jordan

67

69

68

Tunisia

83

83

83

Algeria

87

88

87.5

Sudan

92

93

92.5

Syria

70

66

68

Somalia

86

86

86

Iraq

35

34

34.5

Lebanon

34

34

34

Libya

89

89

89

Morocco

87

79

83

Mauritania

94

94

94

Yemen

64

52

58

Total

83

82

82.5

Seasonal crops irrigated areas

6.99

7.89

7.44

Seasonal crops rainfed areas

35.31

35.63

35.47

Permanent crops irrigated areas

2.69

2.96

2.82

Permanent crops rainfed areas

5.02

5.14

5.08

Additional Useful Statistics (million ha)

Source: compiled from FAO data.

As a result of rainfall variability, temperature fluctuations and frequent drought, farming in rainfed areas is highly risky and unpredictable, implying that food production in Arab countries is insecure. This is evident in FAO food security indicators (FAO, 2013). Two important indicators of food security vulnerability are the cereal import dependency ratio and the value of food imports in total merchandise exports. The quantitative data of these indicators are summarized in Table 2. These data indicate that the cereal import dependency ration of all Arab countries is 73.9 percent as an average of 19902011 period, which is the highest globally. The world cereal import dependency ratio is 15.7 percent and that of developing regions is 15.5 percent. These data clearly indicate that the Arab countries are the most vulnerable in terms of their food security globally. As such, these countries are the most vulnerable to shortages of food supply and fluctuations of food prices

in the international markets. This situation is further complicated by the fact that the value of food imports accounts for nearly one-third of total merchandise exports, while food imports represent only 5.6 percent of the world total merchandise exports. Some 80 percent of the world’s cultivated area is rainfed and produces 62 percent of the staple food (Haddad, et al., 2011). Likewise, Arab countries depend mainly on rainfed agriculture where most of cereal production is taking place. However, investments in rainfed agriculture do not match the high and increasing importance of rained farming currently contributing to food production. Rainfed agriculture has been neglected in favor of irrigated agriculture over the past five decades. The contribution of rainfed farming to food security in Arab countries can be substantially enhanced through increased adoption of currently available technologies supported by enabling policy and institutional environments (Khouri, Shideed and Kherallah, 2011). Rainfed farming can contribute more significantly to achieve new targets of food security if desired investment levels are realized. On-farm results show the huge potential for improving land and water productivity and profitability of smallholder rainfed agriculture.

IV. Sources of Food Production Growth in Arab Countries A. Agricultural Productivity Growth Globally and in Arab Countries Increasing agricultural productivity has always been a world’s strategy for enhancing food security in response to the increase in demand from growing populations. Throughout the 20th Century real agricultural prices (inflationadjusted) decreased, implying that supply exceeded demand for agricultural commodities, while the world population has multiplied by 3.7 times. This was the case because the success in increasing agricultural production during the 20th Century was not due to the expansion of agricultural resources. However, in the 1990s this story has taken a turn. Inflationadjusted prices for agricultural commodities rose by 63 percent between 2000 and 2011

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according to the International Monetary Fund. The energy sector’s demand for agricultural products and rising environmental controls has raised questions about the limits of agricultural productivity growth. The primary concern is whether the gains were achieved in the 20th Century can be carried into the 21st Century. The aim is also to try to increase the productivity in the poor areas where the farmers themselves live. Rainfed areas are a clear target here, so increasing productivity can better serve the needs of poor and vulnerable populations.

table 2

Region/Country

Agricultural productivity is measured as the aggregate total factor productivity (TFP)2 of the sector. Figure 1 explains the long-term trend in productivity of land and labor resources. During the last 50 years industrialized countries were able to increase the “technology frontier”, defined as the highest land-and-labor productivity combination. Previous studies summarized the performance of TFP growth as follows (Fuglie, Wang and Ball, 2012): Based on “technology frontiers” achieved in 1961/65 and 2006/2009, labor productivity grew faster than land productivity in most regions. During the 20th Century, the regions that saw a rise in their technology frontier, were those where labor productivity grew faster than land productivity as the average area per worker rose (except South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa). Public investment (whether local or external) in agricultural research and development (R&D), has played a major role in encouraging productivity growth.

As for India, agriculture remained the main

15.7

Developing Regions

15.5

Africa

30.1

North Africa

49.9

Algeria

70.9

Egypt

35.5

Libya

91.8

Morocco

53.6

Tunisia

60.2

Sub-Saharan Africa

21.5

Asia

10.0

Caucasus and Central Asia

19.2

South Asia

5.6

West Asia

82.6

Iraq

61.5 100.0

Lebanon

88.5

Palestine

96.1

Saudi Arabia

82.9

Syria

49.1

Yemen

82.5

All Arab Countries

73.9

Source: Compiled from FAO- Food Security Indicators (December 20th, 2013). Note: Cereal import dependency ratio= cereal imports/(cereal production + cereal import-cereal export).

employment sector during 1961 and 2009, even though agricultural share of gross domestic product (GPD) fell noticeably during that period. For India’s poor and least educated workers, agricultural employment is very important, as they are less able to enter non-farming sectors. •

•

Cereal Dependency Ratio (percent)

World

Jordan

Agricultural productivity growth has its own consequences on economic welfare, trade competiveness, poverty alleviation, and the environment. Studies on Indian and SubSaharan Africa experiences have proved that agricultural productivity growth has led to a reduction in poverty in these regions. In measuring China’s agricultural productivity during 1993-2005 period, findings throughout the period showed that China’s agricultural productivity growth showed high rates, averaging around 4 percent per year.

Cereal Import Dependency Ratio, Average of 2007-2009

It is thought that low agricultural growth rates undermine the severe poverty and food insecurity that much of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) suffers from. Estimates of TFP growth in Sub-Saharan Africa showed flat or declining productivity from the 1960s to the early 1980s. After that, a constant moderate TFP growth were achieved.

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Such recovery in agricultural productivity growth was due to the structural adjustment reforms that were applied in a number of SSA countries beginning around this time and continuing into the 1990s. •

FIGURE 1

For Arab countries, TFP fluctuated over decades and among countries (Table 3). Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia have maintained (though fluctuated) positive agricultural productivity growth during the last five decades. Egypt sustained annual productivity growth of > 2.7 percent over the last three decades. Whereas, Libya achieved steady TFP of > 3.0 percent annually over the five decades. Jordan and Saudi Arabia achieved the highest TFP (> 5.0 percent) among other Arab countries in the 2000-2009 period. Likewise,

Algeria and Morocco witnessed high annual productivity growth (> 4.0percent) during the last decade. Countries that have maintained positive or increased TFP growth over the last two decades are Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Jordan, KSA and Yemen. Other Arab countries experienced considerable fluctuations in their agricultural productivity growth over the last 50 years, and particularly during the last two decades. Some countries in this category experienced negative growth rates in the last decade. These are not encouraging trends in addressing food insecurity in the Arab countries. •

Previous results show increasing TFP growth at the world level as a result of improved productivity performance in

Long-term trend in land and labor productivity Agricultural land and labor productivity has steadily improved since 1960, but developing countries lag decades behind developed countries

0.1 ha/worker

10,000

1 ha/worker

10 ha/worker

Northeast Asia, Developed Southeast Asia

Europe

100 ha/worker

1,000

Agricultural output per hectare (ha) of land (Constant 2005 Intl. $, log scale)

WORLD South Asia

Latin America Former Soviet N America Union

China

1,000 ha/worker

100 Sub-Saharan Africa

10 100

West Asia & North Afirca

South Africa

Productivity frontier, 2006/09

Oceania

Productivity frontier, 1961/65 1,000

10,000

100,000

Agricultural output per worker (Constant 2005 Intl. $, log scale) 1961/65 66/70 71/75 76/80 81/85 86/90 91/95 96/00 01/05 06/09

Agricultural output is the composite of 190 crop and animal commodities valued at constant 2005 international prices; agricultural land is total cropland and permanent pasture; agricultural labor is the number of economically active adults e mployed in agriculture. X and Y axis are in log values. Source: Fuglie, Kheith O.; Wang, Sun Ling; and Ball, V. Eldon. 2012. Introduction to productivity Growth in Agriculture. Chapter 1 in Productivity Growth in Agriculture: An International Perspective (eds. Fuglie et al.), CAB International 2012.


Million Tree Campaign for Palestinian Farmers Mariam Al Jaajaa

The Million Tree Campaign (MTC) is a grassroots movement for food security designed to bolster Palestinian farmers’ ties to their land through large scale tree planting. The campaign is a program of the Arab Group for the Protection of Nature (APN), a non-profit organization established in 2003 to strengthen the capacity of the Arab peoples to sustain the region’s natural resources and to gain sovereignty over them (www.apnature.org). The campaign works to replant fruit trees in Palestine as a means of counteracting the damage wrought by the Israeli occupation around the areas where settlements, by-pass roads, and the wall are being built. Since 2001, destructive practices as part of the occupation have resulted in the uprooting of almost 2.5 million trees. These trees were an important source of food and income in Palestine. The MTC draws together various partners in Palestine, including the Palestinian Agricultural Relief Committees and the Palestinian Agricultural Farmers Union. Established in 2000, the campaign has resulted in planting the first million trees in April 2008.The second MTC was launched in the same year, and 983,000 trees have been planted so far (as of June 2014).Olive trees have accounted for the

largest proportion of planted trees due to their importance to Palestinian food culture and economy. Other planted trees have included citrus, apple, grape vineyards, pomegranate, figs, and various stone fruits including apricots, peaches, plums, and almonds. The campaign has been expanded to re-build and rehabilitate water facilities such as collective wells and irrigation systems. The MTC has benefited more than17,000 farmers so far, providing food and income to close to 85,000 family members. It has also helped farmers retain their properties since cultivated land is more difficult to confiscate by the Israeli occupation. To complement its grassroots campaign, APN has also played a key role in shaping global policies affecting the right to food for peoples under occupation, and against environmental violations in times of conflict. The main aim of this effort is to integrate human rights norms in these policies while addressing the causal factors that produce food insecurity. Mariam Al Jaajaa, General Manager, Arab Group for the Protection of Nature (APN).

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table 3


Agricultural Productivity Growth (TFP) in Arab Countries

Average Annual Growth ( percent) Countries

1961-1970

1971-1980

Algeria

-1.29

-0.93

1981-1990 3.07

1991-2000

2000-2009

0.72

4.12

Egypt

1.30

1.41

2.71

2.82

2.76

Libya

8.00

3.48

3.60

4.46

3.02

-0.95

0.53

-0.52

0.39

0.57

3.70

-0.71

4.14

0.58

4.11

Mauritania Morocco Tunisia

0.75

1.48

3.51

0.38

1.34

Iraq

0.85

2.85

1.45

0.39

-0.23

Jordan

-8.84

3.94

3.80

2.12

5.87

Kuwait

-0.74

2.04

0.08

7.05

-0.23

3.44

2.01

8.83

-1.43

3.83

-1.29

2.40

-2.64

3.92

-2.25

0.06

1.68

6.35

2.12

5.12

Lebanon Oman Saudi Arabia

0.40

1.30

-0.32

1.55

0.41

Sudan

Somalia

-1.12

1.07

0.54

1.94

0.04

Syria

-0.19

6.15

-2.45

2.65

-0.12

UAE

2.71

3.93

-0.51

8.20

-4.73

-2.94

1.31

1.44

1.72

2.24

Yemen

Source: compiled from: Productivity Growth in Agriculture-An International Perspective. Edited by K.O. Fuglie, S.L. Wang, and V.E. Ball. CAB International 2012.

developing countries. The wide variation in agricultural TFP growth rates among countries is explained by differences in national capacities in agricultural and industrial research. National capacity for agricultural R&D is the most important factor explaining the sustainable long-term agricultural productivity growth in some countries and not in others. Countries with national research systems capable of continuously producing new technologies adaptable to local farming systems generally achieve higher growth rates in agricultural TFP. In addition, being actively collaborating with international research institutions facilitates spillover impacts of technology and thus significantly raises returns to national agricultural research investments. The presence of an enabling environment that encourages the uptake and adoption of new technologies and practices is another factor that explains cross-country differences in agricultural TFP.

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Status of TFP in Different Countries

table 4

TFP growth in different regions since the mid1990s is summarized in Table 4: Global agricultural output growth peaked at 2.7 percent per year in the 1960s and maintained its annual growth at 2.1 and 2.5percent for every decade in the last 40 years (Table 5). An important observation associated with this growth is the shift in the source of output growth from being primarily input driven to productivity driven (Fuglie, 2012). Growth in total inputs declined from 2.5 percent in the 1960s to 0.7 percent in the 2000s, whereas annual TFP growth rose from 0.2 in the 1960s to about 1.7 percent since 1990 (Fuglie, 2012). The steady growth in total yield of 2.1 percent per year during the past five decades has driven the trend in the annual output growth. The growth rate of cereal yield, however, has slowed down after 1990. Its annual growth rate decreased from 2.5 percent in the 1970s and 1980s to 1.3 percent in the 1991-2009 period. But this decline in cereal yield does not significantly affect the growth of agriculture as

table 5

Country/Region

Status of productivity growth since mid-1990s

China

Very strong (high) in coastal provinces but slows down in the rest of the country.

Brazil

Experienced robust productivity growth

USA

Productivity growth has been moderately strong in the Corn Belt and Lake states. Low Plain States, Appalachia, California and Florida.

Australia

Dryland agricultural stagnant nationally

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

Good productivity growth in a number of countries. Some of it is recovery of declining TFP in earlier years.

high

agricultural

TFP

has

been

SSA remains the biggest challenge in achieving sustained and long-term productivity growth in its agricultural sector. The region maintained low TFP growth. Arab countries

Predominantly low or moderate annual TFP growth.

High = Average annual TFP growth > 3 percent Moderate = Average annual TFP growth > 1-3 percent Low = Average annual TFP growth < 1 percent

Agricultural output and productivity growth, 1961-1970 / 2001-2009

(Annual percent) 1961-1970 Region

1971-1980

1981-1990

1991-2000

Output growth

TFP

Output growth

TFP

Output growth

TFP

Output growth

All developing countries

3.15

0.69

2.97

0.93

3.43

1.12

3.64

Sub-Saharan Africa

2.95

0.17

1.19

-0.05

2.82

0.76

West Asia and North Africa

2.87

1.40

3.05

1.66

3.64

1.63

2001-2009

TFP

Output growth

TFP

2.2

3.34

2.21

3.05

0.99

2.69

0.51

2.82

1.74

2.35

1.88

North Africa

2.62

1.32

1.58

0.48

4.53

3.09

3.34

2.03

3.57

3.04

West Asia

2.98

1.21

3.65

2.21

3.29

0.95

2.60

1.70

1.77

1.34

Central Asia & Caucasus

3.41

-0.36

0.71

2.02

0.56

-0.89

0.08

0.65

4.33

2.45

All developed countries

2.05

0.99

1.93

1.64

0.72

1.36

1.32

2.23

0.58

2.44

World

2.74

0.18

2.30

0.60

2.21

0.62

2.21

1.65

2.49

1.84

Source: compiled from: Productivity Growth in Agriculture-An International Perspective. Edited by K.O. Fuglie, S.L. Wang, and V.E. Ball. CAB International 2012. North Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia. West Asia: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait.

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it has been offset by productivity improvement in other commodity groups. In his decomposition of global output growth into inputs and TFP sources, Fuglie (2012) defined TFP as the residual (difference) between output growth and input growth. His estimates indicated that TFP accounted for some 40 percent of gross output growth and inputs represented 60 percent. In recent decade, 20012009, TFP has grown faster and accounted for 74 percent of global agricultural production. The same trend was experienced in developing countries where productivity growth doubled in the last two decades reaching 2 percent per year. The North Africa region (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia) experienced accelerated TFP growth in the 1990s and 2000s, among other developing regions. Likewise, the West Asia region (which includes four Arab countries: Bahrain, Iraq Jordan and Kuwait) maintained positive, but fluctuating productivity growth during the last two decades. The growth in TFP peaked in 2001-2009 in Central Asia and Caucasus countries, reaching 2.45 percent per year compared to 0.65 in the 1990s. The only exception is Sub-Saharan African countries where TFP growth remained