practical statistics for medical research

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Douglas G. Altman. Head of Medical Statistical Laboratory ... Statistics in medical research. Statistics at large .... Use and misuse of correlation. Rank correlation.
PRACTICAL STATISTICS FOR MEDICAL RESEARCH Douglas G. Altman Head ofMedical Statistical Laboratory Imperial Cancer Research Fund London

CHAPMAN & HALL/CRC Boca Raton London New York Washington, D.C.

Contents Preface

1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8

xi Statistics in medical research

Statistics at large Statistics in medicine Statistics in medical research What does statistics cover? The scope of this book Types of data

Introduction Categorical data Numerical data Other types of data Censored data Variability Importance of the type of data Dealing with numbers

3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7

Describing data

4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5

Theoretical distributions

Introduction Averages Describing variability Quantifying variability Two variables The effect of transforming the data Data presentation Exercises Introduction Probability Samples and populations Probability distributions The Normal distribution

1 1 3 4 5 8 10 10 10 11 13 16 17 17 17 19 19 21 22 31 38 41 42 45 48 48 49 50 50 51

Contents vii 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 4.11

The Lognormal distributions The Binomial distribution The Poisson distribution Mathematical calculations The Uniform distribution Concluding remarks Exercises

5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.10 5.11 5.12 5.13 5.14

Designing research

Introduction Categories of research design Sources of variation An experiment: is the blood pressure the same in both arms? The design of experiments The structure of an experiment Random allocation Minimization Observational studies The case-control study The cohort study The cross-sectional study Studies of change over time Choosing a study design Exercises

6 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.10 6.11

Using a computer

7 7.1 7.2 7.3 7-4 7.5

Preparing to analyse data

Introduction Advantages of using a computer Disadvantages of using a computer Types of statistical program Evaluating a statistical package Strategy for computer-aided analysis Forms for data collection Plotting Other uses of computers Misuses of the computer Concluding remarks Introduction Data checking Outliers Missing data Data screening

60 63 66 68 71 71 71 74 74 75 78 79 80 83 85 91 91 93 96 99 101 102 103 107 107 107 108 110 111 112 114 119 120 120 121 122 122 122 126 130 132

vni Contents 7.6 7.7 7.8

Why transform data? Other features of the data Concluding remarks Exercises

143 146 149 149

8 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 8.10 8.11

Principles of statistical analysis

152 152 153 155 160 165 171 173 174 175 176 177 177

9 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.10 9.11 10 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9

Introduction Sampling distributions A demonstration of the distribution of sample means Estimation Hypothesis testing Non-parametric methods Statistical modelling Estimation or hypothesis testing? Strategy for analysing data Presentation of results Summary Exercises Comparing groups - continuous data

Introduction Choosing an appropriate method of analysis The t distribution One group of observations Two groups of paired observations Two independent groups of observations Analysis of skewed data Three or more independent groups of observations One way analysis of variance - mathematics and worked example Presentation of results Summary Exercises Comparing groups - categorical data

Introduction One proportion Proportions in two independent groups Two paired proportions Comparing several proportions The analysis of frequency tables 2 x 2 frequency tables - comparison of two proportions 2 x k tables - comparison of several proportions Large tables with ordered categories

179 179 179 181 183 189 191 199 205 218 220 222 223 229 229 230 232 235 241 241 250 259 265

Contents ix 10.10 10.11 10.12 10.13

k x k tables - analysis of matched variables Comparing risks Presentation of results Summary Exercises

266 266 271 271 272

11 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 11.10 11.11 11.12 11.13 11.14 11.15 11.16 11.17

Relation between two continuous variables

277 277 278 282 285 288 291 293 297 300 300 306 309 311 316 318 319 320 321

Association, prediction and agreement Correlation Use and misuse of correlation Rank correlation Adjusting a correlation for another variable Use of the correlation coefficient in assessing non-Normality Correlation - mathematics and worked examples Interpretation of correlation Presentation of correlation Regression Use of regression Extensions Regression - mathematics and worked example Interpretation of regression Relation to other analyses Presentation of regression Regression or correlation? Exercises

12 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7

Relation between several variables

13 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7

Analysis of survival times

Introduction Analysis of variance and multiple regression Two way analysis of variance Multiple regression Logistic regression Discriminant analysis Other methods Exercises Introduction Survival probabilities Comparing survival curves in two groups Mathematical calculations and worked examples Incorrect analyses Modelling survival - the Cox regression model Desien of survival studies

325 325 325 326 336 351 358 360 361 365 365 367 371 377 385 387 393

x Contents 13.8

Presentation of results Exercises

393 394

14 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7

Some common problems in medical research Introduction Method comparison studies Inter-rater agreement Diagnostic tests Reference intervals Serial measurements Cyclic variation Exercises

396 396 396 403 409 419 426 433 435

15 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6

Clinical trials Introduction Design of clinical trials Sample size Analysis Interpretation of results Writing up and assessing clinical trials Exercises

440 440 441 455 461 471 473 474

16 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5

The medical literature Introduction The growth of statistics in medical research Statistics in published papers Reading a scientific paper Writing a scientific paper Exercises

477 477 478 481 493 498 499

Appendix A Mathematical notation

505

Al.l A1.2 A1.3 A1.4 A1.5

505 505 509 510 510

Introduction Basic ideas Mathematical symbols Functions Glossary of notation

Appendix B Statistical tables

514

Answers to exercises References Index

546 575 589