Predicting Recidivism with the PICTS 27 Table 3 Zero

Predicting Recidivism with the PICTS

27

Table 3 Zero-Order and Partial Correlations between the PICTS Scales and Subsequent Recidivism at 6, 12, and 24 Months ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Zero-Order Correlations

Partial Correlations

___________________________________________

PICTS Scale

___________________________________________

6-month

12-month

24-month

___________

___________

____________

___________

___________

___________

T

T

T

T

T

T

M

F

M

F

M

6-month

F

M

12-month

F

M

24-month

F

M

F

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ GCT

.19

.19

.20

.20

.21

.21

.25

.25

.25

.11

.11 .14

.12

.12

.14

.15

.14

.17

P

.16

.16

.15

.17

.17

.16

.20

.20

.19

.08

.08 .09

.08

.08

.09

.10

.10

.11

Mo

.13

.13

.11

.14

.14

.12

.17

.17

.15

.07

.07 .07

.07

.07

.08

.09

.09

.11

En

.15

.15

.14

.16

.17

.14

.20

.20

.18

.07

.08 .07

.08

.08

.08

.10

.10

.10

Po

.13

.13

.12

.14

.14

.13

.16

.16

.14

.08

.08 .09

.09

.09

.09

.10

.10

.09

So

.10

.10

.12

.11

.10

.12

.13

.13

.15

.03

.03 .06

.03

.03

.06

.04

.03

.07

.20

.20

.21

.21

.22

.22

.25

.26

.27

.13

.13 .16

.14

.14

.17

.16

.17

.20

.19

.20

.23

.21

.21

.24

.25

.25

.27

.14

.14 .17

.14

.14

.18

.17

.17

.20

R Co

Predicting Recidivism with the PICTS

28

Ci

.15

.15

.15

.16

.16

.17

.20

.20

.21

.10

.09 .12

.10

.10

.13

.13

.12

.16

Ds

.18

.18

.19

.19

.19

.19

.22

.23

.23

.11

.11 .14

.12

.12

.14

.14

.15

.17

Note. Recidivism measured dichotomously (1 = present, 0 = absent); Zero-Order Correlations = zero order correlations (without any control variables); Partial Correlations = partial correlation controlling for age and criminal history; 6-month = follow-up of 6 or more months; 12-month = follow-up of 12 or more months; 24-month = follow-up of 24 or more months; PICTS = Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles; GCT = general criminal thinking score; P = proactive criminal thinking score; Mo = mollification criminal thinking style scale; En = entitlement criminal thinking style scale; Po = power orientation criminal thinking style scale; So = superoptimism criminal thinking style scale; R = reactive criminal thinking score; Co = cutoff criminal thinking style scale; Ci = cognitive indolence criminal thinking style scale; Ds = discontinuity criminal thinking style scale; T = total sample; M = male subsample; F = female subsample; Ns for total sample (6-month = 96,400, 12-month = 66,720, 24-month = 26,226), male subsample (6-month = 81,881, 12-month = 56,393, 24-month = 21,965), and female subsample (6-month = 14,519, 12-month = 10,327, 24-month = 4,261). All correlations significant using a Bonferroni-corrected alpha level of .00028 (.05 / 180 correlations).

Predicting Recidivism with the PICTS

29

Table 4 Area under the Curve (AUC) Values Achieved by PICTS Scales as Predictors of Recidivism at 24 Months _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Area under the Curve (AUC) _________________________________________________________________________________________ Sex

Race

_______________________ PICTS

Total

Male

Female

Ethnicity

______________________ Black

White

_______________________ Hispanic

non-Hispanic

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ GCT

.65(.64, .66)

.65(.64, .66)

.67(.65, .69)

.62(.60, .63)

.66(.65, .67)

.63(.61, .65)

.66(.65, .66)

P

.63(.62, .64)

.63(.62, .63)

.64(.62, .66)

.59(.58, .60)

.63(.62, .64)

.60(.59, .62)

.63(.62, .64)

Mo

.60(.60, .61)

.60(.60, .61)

.60(.58, .62)

.59(.58, .60)

.60(.59, .61)

.60(.58, .61)

.61(.61, .61)

En

.62(.61, .63)

.62(.61, .63)

.63(.61, .65)

.60(.59, .61)

.63(.62, .64)

.61(.59, .62)

.64(.63, .64)

Po

.59(.59, .60)

.59(.59, .60)

.59(.57, .61)

.58(.57, .59)

.61(.60, .62)

.59(.57, .60)

.61(.60, .62)

So

.59(.58, .59)

.58(.57, .59)

.60(.58, .62)

.57(.56, .58)

.60(.59, .61)

.59(.57, .60)

.60(.59, .61)

.65(.65, .66)

.65(.65, .66)

.67(.65, .69)

.62(.61, .63)

.67(.66, .68)

.63(.61, .65)

.66(.65, .66)

Co

.64(.63, .64)

.64(.63, .65)

.66(.64, .68)

.64(.62, .65)

.67(.66, .68)

.64(.63, .66)

.66(.65, .67)

Ci

.62(.61, .63)

.62(.61, .63)

.64(.62, .66)

.61(.60, .62)

.64(.63, .65)

.61(.59, .63)

.64(.63, .66)

Ds

.64(.63, .64)

.64(.63, .65)

.65(.63, .67)

.63(.62, .64)

.67(.66, .68)

.64(.62, .66)

.66(.65, .66)

R

Predicting Recidivism with the PICTS

30

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Note. 24-month follow-up data utilized; recidivism measured dichotomously (1 = present, 0 = absent); PICTS = Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles; GCT = general criminal thinking score; P = proactive criminal thinking score; Mo = mollification criminal thinking style scale; En = entitlement criminal thinking style scale; Po = power orientation criminal thinking style scale; So = superoptimism criminal thinking style scale; R = reactive criminal thinking score; Co = cutoff criminal thinking style scale; Ci = cognitive indolence criminal thinking style scale; Ds = discontinuity criminal thinking style scale; Total = total sample; Sex = gender (male or female); Male = male subsample; Female = female subsample; Race = race (black or white); Black = black subsample; White = white subsample; Ethnicity = ethnic status (Hispanic or non-Hispanic); Hispanic = Hispanic subsample; Ns for total sample (26,226), male subsample (21,965), female subsample (4,261); black subsample (9,636); white subsample (16,521); Hispanic subsample (5,750); non-Hispanic subsample (20,197).

All AUCs significant using a Bonferroni-corrected alpha level of .00071 (.05 / 70 AUCs).

Predicting Recidivism with the PICTS

31

80   70  

%  Recidivism  

60   50   GCT  >=  T60  

40  

GCT  =  T50-­‐59  

30  

GCT  <  T50  

20   10   0   Low  Risk  

Low-­‐Moderate  Risk  

Moderate  Risk  

High  Risk  

All  Risk  Levels  

PCRA  Risk  Level   Figure 1. Recidivism rates (6 months or more) of male probationers and supervised releases with low (T-score < 50), moderate (Tscore = 50-59), and high (T-score > 60) elevations on the PICTS GCT score across each of the four PCRA risk levels

Predicting Recidivism with the PICTS

32

80   70  

%  Recidivism  

60   50   GCT  >=  T60  

40  

GCT  =  T50-­‐59  

30  

GCT  <  T50  

20   10   0   Low  Risk  

Low-­‐Moderate  Risk  

Moderate  Risk  

High  Risk  

All  Risk  Levels  

PCRA  Risk  Level   Figure 2. Recidivism rates (6 months or more) of female probationers and supervised releases with low (T-score < 50), moderate (Tscore = 50-59), and high (T-score > 60) elevations on the PICTS GCT score across each of the four PCRA risk levels