Prediction model EHRA2018_LB

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24-hour heart rate variability. – heart rate turbulence. •All-cause mortality and first appropriate shock were pre-defined endpoints. The research leading to the ...
Prediction model for shock risk and mortality in ICD patients L. Bergau1, R. Willems2, A. Tuinenburg3, MA. Vos3, P. Flevari4, L. Luethje1, TH. Fischer1, B. Vandenberk2, D. Sprenkeler3, C. Roever1, G. Hasenfuss1, SE. Lehnart1, T. Friede1, M. Zabel1 (1) University Medical Center Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany (2) University Hospitals (UZ) Leuven, Leuven, Belgium (3) University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands (4) Attikon University Hospital, Athens, Greece

Introduction •Effectiveness of implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) treatment needs improvement. In a prospective study, we investigated combinations of risk stratifiers including electrophysiologic diagnostics.

Distribution of patients according to their risk of appropriate shock and death (A) Scatterplot depicting the correlation of shock and mortality (B). A

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Material and methods •In 672 ICD patients (pts), the following preselected parameters were collected: – cardiovascular history – left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) – NT-proBNP – hs-CRP – estimated glomerular filtration rate, – electrophysiological (EP) testing – microvolt T-wave alternans (MTWA) – 24-hour heart rate variability – heart rate turbulence.

Distribution of patients to combinations of risk categories (low, intermediate, high) and their associated annualized mortality and shock risk. Grey circles denote the frequencies of patients in the various categories. The orange and green bars denote the actual annualized shock and mortality risks in a category, respectively.

Correlation scatter plot for calculated risk score values of appropriate shock vs. calculated risk score value for mortality (r=0.4456, p