3
Production System with Respect for Variable Quantities for an Economical Electric Vehicle Production G. Schuh, J. Arnoscht, C. Nee, and B. Schittny
3.1
Introduction
The human need for mobility is directly connected to resource consumption. Starting with the production of cars, commodities and energy are used for manufacturing; materials and products are being transported and processed. Mobility with combustion engine vehicles causes emissions and highly depends on the scarcity of fossil fuels. The trend towards mega cities and the increasing awareness of environmental friendliness reveal future mobility as a social core problem. The “Triple Bottom Line” is a framework supporting the holistic examination of such social problems, by capturing and discussing aspects within the three pillars of sustainability (Economy, Ecology and Social) (Fig. 3.1) [1, 2]. Discussing advantages of electric mobility majorly reflects ecological aspects such as zero-emission-mobility, usage of regenerative energy or CO2 regulations. Economic facts address profits for manufacturers, brand image gains, competitive total cost of ownership and the independence of oil imports, but are mostly not yet achieved. The social pillar of the “Triple Bottom Line” faces the affordability of mobility for major parts of the population and the trend towards mega cities.
WGP-Jahreskongress (8th–9th June 2011) G. Schuh (*) J. Arnoscht C. Nee B. Schittny Laboratory for Machine Tools and Production Engineering (WZL) of RWTH Aachen University, Steinbachstr. 19, Aachen 52074, Germany e-mail:
[email protected];
[email protected];
[email protected];
[email protected]
3.1.1
Challenges for Economical, Ecological and Social Mobility of the Future
Just in time for the 125th anniversary, the automotive mobility is at the crossroads. Similar to the first cars, which Wilhelm II King of Prussia described as a “temporary trend”, had been competing against horses, nowadays electric vehicles have to prevail against 125 years of R&D evolution of conventional powered cars [2–4]. Chances for electric mobility to solve the social core problem of future mobility are positive, if being able to succeed in all three pillars of the “Triple Bottom Line” [4].
3.1.1.1 Ecology Supported by governmental subsidies and regulations the relevance of the market of electric vehicles will grow, while conventional powered cars face stricter threshold values for CO2 emissions [3]. Light weight body design, start/ stop automatic, low-friction tires, brake recuperation and other CO2 emission reducing extras will be necessary but expensive requirements for conventional powered cars [5, 6]. The increasing awareness for environmental friendliness additionally supports the market diffusion of electric vehicles. One out of five potential buyers of new cars claims to delay his buying decision and rather waits for competitive electric vehicles [7, 8]. 3.1.1.2 Economy Economic aspects consider the growth of the low and medium price vehicle segments, due to increased cost of living [9]. The drift towards lower priced cars is supported by the trend of “good-enough innovation”; products with significant market success due to concentration on high quality basic features but few performance or excitement attributes [10, 11]. The increasing demand for cars in the low and medium price segments as well as the success of “good-enough
G. Schuh et al. (eds.), Future Trends in Production Engineering, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-24491-9_3, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013
21
22
G. Schuh et al.
Ecology
Economy
Careful use of existing resources
Sustainable basis for future profits
• Emission-free mobility • Improving the CO2 balance • Usage of renewable energy
• Value innovations make electric cars profitible • Total cost of ownership lower than comparable vehicles with conventional powertrain • Reducing the dependence on oil imports
Social
Improving quality of life
E-Mobility
• Improving quality of life in cities • Mobility remains affordable for the majority of the population
Absolute Frequency
Fig. 3.1 Triple bottom line of future electric mobility
Average daily driving distance: 36,9 km
5 km
15 km
25 km
~ 65%
~ 82%
~ 92%
35 km 45 km Distance [km]
90 km
130 km
Fig. 3.2 Mobility range statistic for Germany
innovation” goes along with the aspect, that price is the most important criterion for buying decisions, even before quality, safety and brand [9].
3.1.1.3 Social Social values support the idea of electric mobility being the solution for the social core problem of future mobility. Urbanization is a global phenomenon: UN estimates, that in 2015, 40% of the world’s population will be living in cities with the size larger than one million inhabitants [12]. Future concepts by traffic managers for urban mobility
strongly depend on electric vehicles, relying on a new generation of small-sized emission-free electric cars, optimized for an urban environment [2, 8]. Future mobility concepts are based on studies that analyse the statistical need for the mobility range of car users. Statistics for Germany show that the average daily driving distance is 37 km; also less than 8% of the daily driving routes are longer than 130 km (Fig. 3.2) [13]. If economic aspects of the “Triple Bottom Line” are improved, chances for a market diffusion of battery electric vehicles are higher than ever. Scenarios for the year 2020
3
Production System with Respect for Variable Quantities for an Economical Electric Vehicle Production
Market Share [%]
100 90 Government regulation 80 in year 2050: 70
