Project 2.1.6 - NESP Tropical Water Quality Hub

Project 2.1.6: From exposure to risk: novel experimental approaches to analyse cumulative impacts and determine thresholds in the GBRWHA S. Uthicke, K. Anthony, K. Fabricius, C. Brunner, S. Noonan, R. Ferrari, S. dePerna, A. Negri

Outline Introduction: The project and CI

Experimental approaches

Ecotox and Modelling Tools

Summary

AIMS Open Day 2015

AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.

Impact types relevant for the GBR

modified after Duarte 2013: AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency. http://theconversation.com/auditing-the-seven-plagues-of-coastalecosystems-13637

NESP 1.6 Report

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AIMS Open Day 2015

Gap analysis of existing knowledge Review of Methods and Tools: • Ecotox/Ecophysiology • Stats tools to interpret field and experimental data • Modelling tools

http://nesptropical.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NESP-TWQ1.6-FINAL-REPORT.pdf AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.

Gap analysis: cumulative impacts on corals reef organisms

10

Number of Studies 20 30 40

50

2 x 2

Factor Levels Studied

Web of Science searches for each pressure and response group

0 3 x 3 4 x 3 5 x 2 8 x 2

10 x 6

• 55% of studies only 2 х 2 factors

Uthicke, S., Fabricius, K., De’ath, G., Negri, A., Warne, M., Smith, R., Noonan, S., Johansson, C., Gorsuch, H. and Anthony, K. (2016). http://nesptropical.edu.au/wpcontent/uploads/2016/05/NESP-TWQ-1.6-FINAL-REPORT.pdf.

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Types of Cumulative pressures (A) Examples

Same pressure Repeated

P1T1

- Repeated dredging - Seasonal runoff

P1T2 P1T3

Simultaneous

P1 P1 P1

Chronic

Combinations of above

- Dredging in several areas for 1 development - Pesticides - Nutrients

P1 P1A P1B

- A 3rd development where 2 exist

P1C

Time AIMS Open Day 2015


Types of Cumulative pressures (B) Multiple pressures, complex interactions Successive

P1 - Cots à Cyclone à Bleaching

P2 P3 1 Acute/ 1 Chronic

P1 P2

- Nutrient runoff and SST increase - Trawling and Dredging - OA and SST increase - Overfishing and Nutrient runoff

Both Chronic

P1 P2

Acute/Ramping

P2

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P1

Time

- OA and Floodplumes


NESP TWQ – Project 2.1.6: from exposure to risk

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Filling Data Gaps: – –

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Experimental analyses of concentration-response relationships. Climate adjusted Thresholds

Produce exposure maps for individual stressors and summarize those into cumulative exposure maps. Explore avenues to assess ecosystem/ecological risks Identify management opportunities to reduce the risk level of different regions of the GBR.

AIMS Open Day 2015


Outline NESP Prioritisation

Experimental approaches

Ecotox aand Modelling Tools

Summary

AIMS Open Day 2015


Example 1: Nutrients, Sediments &

Temperature Adriana Humanes AIMS@JCU Cumulative stress on coral reproduction

+

Fertilization

1st cleavage (2 h)

P1

Recruit

8 cell (4 h)

Round stage (36 h)

Larvae (5-dayold))

P2

• Humanes, A., Finkd, A., Willis, B.L., Fabricius, K.E., de Beer, D. and Negri, A.P. (2017) Effects of suspended sediments and nutrient enrichment on juvenile corals. Marine Pollution Bulletin. • Humanes, A., Noonan, S.H.C., Willis, B.L., Fabricius, K.E. and Negri, A.P. (2016) Cumulative effects of nutrient enrichment and elevated temperature compromise the early life history stages of the coral Acropora tenuis. PLoS ONE 11(8), e0161616. • Humanes, A., Ricardo, G.F., Willis, B.L., Fabricius, K.E. and Negri, A.P. (2017) Cumulative effects of suspended sediments, organic nutrients and temperature stress on early life history stages of the coral Acropora tenuis. Scientific Reports 7, 44101.

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% Fertilization

5 × 3

z

100 80 60 40 20

32

EC50 = 18 mg l-1

30

EC50 = 25 mg l-1

27

EC50 = 37 mg l-1

0 0 5 10 30 100

Suspended sediments (mg/l)

AIMS Open Day 2015


Example 2: Cumulative climate & sedimentation effects on key reef species

For example: Sediment clearance under difference climate scenarios

A

B

Pictures by: G. Ricardo

Successful sediment clearance at 1-10 mg cm2 AIMS Open Day 2015

Minimal sediment clearance at 100 mg cm2 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.

Example 3: Effects of light and OA on corals

(K. Fabricius, S. Noonan, S. de Perna)

Expose 2 species of corals and their recruits for 49 days to 2 levels of CO2 (400, 900 ppm) and 4 light treatments (Daily Light Integrals = mol photon m-2 day-1): High = 12.6 DLI, steady, Med = 7.6 DLI, steady, Var = 7.6 mean DLI, varying between days, Low = 2.5 DLI, steady):

Growth of two Acropora coral species is function of cumulative light exposure: • No difference between steady or variable noon light at same DLI • 40% light reduction (steady or variable) -> 60% growth decrease • 80% light reduction -> 30% growth. • No OA effect Ø

AIMS Open Day 2015

Every day of reduced light leads to smaller colonies


Example 4: Climate adjusted diuron thresholds for foraminifera and Halimeda after long term acclimation to future climate scenarios Joseane Marques (with A. Negri and S. Uthicke)

van Dam, J. W., S. Uthicke, V. H. Beltran, J. F. Mueller, and A. P. Negri. 2015. Combined thermal and herbicide stress in functionally diverse coral symbionts. Environmental Pollution 204:271-279.

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Outline Introduction CI

Experimental and Ecotox Tools

Ecotox and Modelling Tools

Summary

AIMS Open Day 2015


Community effects: Multi-species Potentially Affected Fraction – Species Sensitivity Distributions

SSD diuron

Diuron (µg l-1)

SSD thermal

Assumes additivity (response addition)

More sensitive to thermal stress in the presence of diuron

Uthicke, S., Fabricius, K., De’ath, G., Negri, A., Warne, M., Smith, R., Noonan, S., Johansson, C., Gorsuch, H. and Anthony, K. (2016). http://nesptropical.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NESP-TWQ-1.6-FINAL-REPORT.pdf.

AIMS Open Day 2015


Exposure and Risk maps

D

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E

N


Risk Assessments: e.g. IUCN Risk of ecosystem collapse

The IUCN Red List of Ecosystems

AIMS Open Day 2015


Alaniz, A. J., M. Galleguillos, and J. F. Perez-Quezada. 2016. Assessment of quality of input data used to classify ecosystems according to the AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency. 204:378-385. IUCN Red List methodology: The case of the central Chile hotspot. Biological Conservation

How can structured risk assessment help managers?

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Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models are valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key threats to be addressed by management. The Red List of Ecosystems risk assessment protocol can help understand interactions among threats (cumulative impacts) and evaluate potential levers for management. For example, assessment of the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef found that herbivorous fish biomass was an insensitive indicator of the probability of ecosystem collapse

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à Managers were advised to monitor piscivorous fish biomass coral cover

Bland, L. M., T. J. Regan, M. N. Dinh, R. Ferrari, D. A. Keith, R. Lester, D. Mouillot, N. J. Murray, H. A. Nguyen, and E. Nicholson. 2017. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 284. AIMS Open Day 2015


Summary -

Project on track Experiments and Risk assessments under way Student and project staff recruited

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End-user engagement/interaction -

Two workshops on CI organised during NESP 1 and at the start of NESP2 National (e.g. CSIRO) and international (e.g. SCOR) workshops attended Regular discussions and results presented to GBRMPA, DoEE, DSITI Direct collaborations with Rachael Smith at DSITI (on SSD)

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Publications

Uthicke, S., K. Fabricius, G. De’ath, A. Negri, R. Smith, M. Warne, S. Noonan, C. Johansson, H. Gorsuch, and K. Anthony. (2016) Final Report Project 1.6. Report to the National Environmental Science Programme. Reef and Rainforest Research Centre Limited, Cairns (144pp.). Adams, M., Collier, C., Uthicke, S., Ow, Y.X., Langlois, L., O’Brien, K (2016) Scientific Reports Anthony KRN. (2016) Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 41, 59–81 Humanes A, Noonan SH, Willis BL, Fabricius KE, Negri AP (2016) PLoS ONE 11: e0161616 Humanes A, Ricardo GF, Willis BL, Fabricius KE, Negri AP (2017) Scientific Reports. 7: 44101. Wilkinson AD, Collier CJ, Flores F, Langlois L, Ralph PJ, Negri AP (2017) Scientific Reports. 7: 45404 Humanes, A., Finkd, A., Willis, B.L., Fabricius, K.E., de Beer, D. and Negri, A.P. (in review) Marine Pollution Bulletin. Rocker, M., Francis, D., Fabricius, KE., Willis, B., Bay, L. Mar Poll Bull

AIMS Open Day 2015


Thank You!!

AIMS Open Day 2015
