Purple Strategies - In A Democracy

October 2012 Edition

PURPLEPOLL

PURPLE INSIGHTS

WHY THE PURPLEPOLL? In 2012, a dozen states will decide whether President Obama is elected to a second term. The PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the Purple Electorate - likely voters only in these swing states. Updated regularly throughout the 2012 election cycle, the PurplePoll offers a unique lens through which you can gather original insight into this critical election.

ABOUT PURPLE STRATEGIES Purple is a fully integrated, bipartisan team that excels at merging red and blue perspectives to find effective strategic solutions. We look to build a consensus that will support a public affairs initiative, influence a debate or stimulate change. Our team includes experts in opinion research, strategic communications, grassroots, government affairs, digital communications and creative. Recognizing the need for a balanced, bipartisan approach to corporate communications and issue advocacy, Alex Castellanos and Steve McMahon merged two well-established Republican and Democratic firms – National Media and Issue & Image – to create Purple Strategies. By joining forces, Purple brings together strategists and communication specialists from across the political spectrum, including veteran political strategists Bruce Haynes, Mark Squier, Rob Collins and Jim Jordan. The PurplePoll is fielded and analyzed by Purple Insights, the research division of Purple Strategies, the bipartisan public affairs firm. For more: www.purplestrategies.com

The PurplePoll has built a reputation for accurate, unbiased and cutting-edge polling and analysis. It has been cited on television, in print, and online by sources that span the political spectrum, including: MSNBC, Fox News, ABC News, the Wall Street Journal, Talking Points Memo, Slate, Politico, the National Review and dozens of others. And we will continue to bring you this analysis through the November election, and beyond. Fielded 10/23-10/25, interviews were conducted using a mixed methodology of automated telephone interviews using landline phones and online interviews of voters who predominantly or exclusively use cell phones. Seventy-five percent (75%) of the interviews were conducted via phone, and 25% online with cell phone users. Total weighted N size=1000 likely voters, margin of error +/-3.1. CO, OH, and VA have been oversampled to N=600 per state, margin of error +/-4.0. For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] or Bruce Haynes [[email protected]], at 703-548-7877. To subscribe, e-mail us at [email protected].

For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.

 PURPLE ANALYSIS

October 2012

PURPLEPOLL A razor-thin race in Purple States, with Obama holding a slight advantage. Much has happened since our last PurplePoll: all three Presidential debates, the Vice Presidential debate, and the September jobs report. The net effect on the PurplePoll is consistent: the race has tightened, with President Obama maintaining a slight lead. Across the 12 Purple States, President Obama currently leads by 2 points, 47% to 45%. This represents a net 3-point change in the lead in Governor Romney’s favor. We see similar movement in the three individual states we polled, with Obama maintaining small leads in Ohio and Colorado, and the race knotted up in Virginia.

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Ohio (Obama +2): Our result in Ohio shows a small move in Governor Romney’s direction over the last month. Today, President Obama leads 46% to 44%, down from a 4-point lead in September. President Obama has a strong lead among early voters: 26% of Ohio voters say they have already voted, and he leads by 26 points among that group. Romney holds a 2-point lead among independents in the state. Colorado (Obama +1): The critical mountain state has tightened as well. Today, President Obama’s lead is down to 1 point, 47% to 46%, down from a 3-point lead in September. He holds a 6-point lead over Romney among early voters, and the race is tied among independents. Virginia (Even): Governor Romney has gained ground in this state over the past month. Obama led by 3 points in September, and the state is now tied at 47%. Romney holds a 3-point lead among independents.

Two opposite forces at work in Purple States: Romney’s image has improved, while voters’ opinion of the economy has ticked up. Governor Romney has seen a substantial improvement in perceptions around his personal image over the past month. Today, 44% have a favorable view of him, with 49% unfavorable, an improvement from 38%/52% last time. Over the same period, President Obama has seen his personal image tick down slightly (today, 47% favorable, 48% unfavorable, compared to 49%/46% in September). That improvement in Romney’s image is directly related to his improvement in Purple State polling. At the same time, it has been balanced by an uptick in opinions about the economy. In our latest poll, 37% believe the economy is “getting better,” compared to 34% last month. This small change can have an outsized impact on the vote. As we have noted in previous polls, perception of the economy is the strongest attitudinal predictor of the vote. In our current polling, 94% of

2


those who believe the economy is getting better are voting for Obama, compared to just 5% of those who believe it is getting worse.

His advantage is smaller in Ohio (+6) and Virginia (+6) than in Purple States as a whole. In Colorado, he holds the advantage by 9 points.

Taken together, the impact is an improvement for Governor Romney overall. However, buoyed perceptions about the economy are protecting President Obama’s slim lead, and may be critical in the final outcome.

At the same time, President Obama holds a lead on security, reversing traditional party roles on that issue. Overall, 46% believe that President Obama will do a better job keeping us safe, while 43% said the same about Mitt Romney. Romney holds a 1-point lead on that issue in Colorado, while Obama is tied with Romney in Ohio (45%/45%) and has a 1-point lead in Virginia on that measure.

A plurality of voters believe the economy will do better under Romney, while Obama holds an edge on national security. Our poll asked Purple State voters whether they believed the economy would do better over the next 4 years under President Obama or Governor Romney. Forty-four percent (44%) of voters said it would do better under Romney, 39% said better under Obama, and 13% said it doesn’t matter (3% weren’t sure).

Who’s having fun? No surprise here: voters are divided. And a third of voters would pay $100 to stop the ads. We asked voters which candidate is having more fun on the campaign trail. Overall, 34% believe that President Obama was having more fun, while 27% feel that Governor Romney is having more fun on the trail.

 PURPLE ANALYSIS

Interestingly, there is less partisan divide on this question than nearly every other question we asked. Among Democrats, 47% believe that President Obama is having more fun, while 17% choose Governor Romney. Among Republicans, 41% believe that their nominee is having more fun on the trail, while 22% pick Obama. We also asked voters about the deluge of political advertising – did they feel it was a normal part of the political process that can’t be avoided, or would they be willing to pay $100 to block them out. A third (34%) said they would be willing to pay the money to just stop the advertising for the next two weeks. Perhaps voters from both parties can agree: nonstop advertising, travel, rallies, and fundraising is exhausting for candidates and voters.

Among independents, Romney’s edge on this question increases to 13 points (45% to 32%).

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 PURPLE OVERALL


PURPLEPOLL

PURPLE TRACKING

October 2012

Direction of Country 80

Direction of Economy 50

71%

69%

70

60%

60

Wrong Track

50

Right Direction

40

Not Sure

30 20

20%

32%

57%

36%

57%

36%

40

53%

52% 40%

38%

37% 36%

30

50 40

36%

35%

35%

Nov. ‘11

Dec. ‘11

Feb. ‘12

Mar ‘12

June ‘12

Sep. ‘12

Oct. ‘12

37%

Feb. ‘11

Mar. ‘12

Apr. ‘12

July ‘12

Aug. ‘12

Sept. ‘12

Oct. ‘12

Romney Favorability

53% 52% 53% 50% 50% 50% 48% 49% 49% 51% 50% 47% 41% 41% 41%

0

45% 44%

46% 47% 47% 46%

43%

47% 45%

Disapprove

60

54%

50

39%

45%

57% 56% 48% 49% 49% 48%

47%

40 30

32% 30% 29% 30%

41% 38% 39% 27%

Approve

20

Not Sure

52%

45%

49% 44%

38% Unfavorable

29%

Favorable

20

Not Sure

10

10

SUBSCRIBE TO

34%

Same

30

0

29%

40%

Getting Worse

10

Obama Job Approval 60

40%

Getting Better

10 0

39%

44%

28% 20

22%

42%

Sep. 2011

Nov. 2011

Dec. 2011

PURPLEPOLL

Jan. 2012

Feb. 2012

Mar. 2012

Apr. 2012

Jun. 2012

[email protected]

July 2012

Aug. 2012

Sep. 2012

Oct. 2012

0

Sep. 2011

Nov. 2011

Dec. 2011

Jan. 2012

Feb. 2012

Mar. 2012

Apr. 2012

Jun. 2012

July 2012

Aug. 2012

Sep. 2012

Oct. 2012 4

 PURPLE OVERALL


PURPLEPOLL

PURPLE TRACKING

October 2012

Obama vs. Romney 50 40

46% 43%

45% 45%

47%

46%

43%

44%

47%

48%

48%

48%

47%

47%

43%

44%

44%

46%

45%

46%

49%

47%

44%

45%

Sep. 2012

Oct. 2012

Barack Obama

30

Mitt Romney

20

Not Sure

10 0

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Sep. 2011

Nov. 2011

Dec. 2011

[email protected]

Jan. 2012

Feb. 2012

Mar. 2012

Apr. 2012

Jun. 2012

July 2012

Aug. 2012

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 PURPLE OCTOBER 2012 MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE


PURPLEPOLL October 2012

October 2012 Main Questionnaire

By State

%

Party

Gender

Total

Education

Male

Female

GOP

Ind

Dem

Non-Coll

Coll+

Are things in this country generally going in the right direction or are they pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

Right direction Wrong track Not sure

40 52 8

40 53 7

41 53 7

40 51 9

40 55 5

40 50 10

7 88 5

37 58 6

74 16 10

39 53 8

41 51 7

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Barack Obama?

Favorable Unfavorable Not sure

47 48 5

47 50 3

46 48 6

48 47 5

45 52 3

49 45 7

7 91 2

42 52 5

87 8 5

46 49 5

48 48 4

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Mitt Romney?


44 49 7

46 49 5

43 50 7

45 47 7

46 47 8

42 51 7

86 9 5

41 49 10

9 86 5

45 48 7

42 50 8

Approve Disapprove

45 49 6

45 51 4

45 49 6

45 48 7

42 54 4

47 45 8

7 91 2

38 54 8

84 9 7

44 50 6

45 49 6

Not sure

20 80 1

40 59 0

26 74 1

9 90 1

20 78 1

19 81 0

22 78 0

16 84 0

21 77 1

21 79 1

18 81 0

Barack Obama Mitt Romney Third party candidate Refused/Not sure

48 44 4 4

50 44 3 2

58 32 5 5

47 51 0 3

46 44 5 5

51 44 3 3

7 89 4 1

40 46 9 6

92 2 1 4

46 46 5 4

53 42 3 2

Barack Obama Mitt Romney

46 46 8

45 48 7

42 49 9

47 46 7

42 48 10

50 43 7

6 90 4

42 45 14

87 9 4

45 46 8

47 45 9

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

Have you already voted, either through absentee ballot or early voting?

IF VOTED EARLY: Who did you vote for?

IF HAVEN’T VOTED: If the 2012 election were held today, for whom would you vote?”

Not sure Yes, already voted No, have not yet voted

Not sure

Fielded 10/23-10/25, using automated telephone and online interviews. Total weighted N size=1000 likely voters, margin of error +/-3.1. CO, OH, and VA have been oversampled to N=600 per state, margin of error +/-4.0.

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By State

%

Party

Gender

Total

Education

Male

Female

GOP

Ind

Dem

Non-Coll

Coll+


47 45 1 7

47 46 1 5

46 44 1 8

47 47 0 7

43 47 1 9

50 43 1 6

6 90 1 4

41 45 1 12

88 7 0 4

45 46 1 7

48 44 1 7

Certain Might change mind Don’t Know

92 6 1

91 7 2

93 6 1

96 3 1

90 8 1

93 5 2

95 4 1

87 11 2

95 4 2

93 5 1

91 8 1

Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse or staying about the same?

Getting better Getting worse Staying about the same Not sure

37 40 20 3

39 42 18 1

38 40 21 1

37 38 23 3

38 41 20 2

36 40 20 4

8 72 19 2

35 41 22 1

66 12 19 3

34 44 18 4

41 36 22 2

Which candidate is more likely to keep the country safe?

Barack Obama Mitt Romney Not sure

46 43 12

45 46 9

45 45 10

45 44 11

43 45 12

48 40 11

7 85 8

43 42 16

84 7 9

45 43 12

47 42 11

Do you think the economy will improve more if Obama Mitt Romney wins re-election, more if Romney wins the election, Doesn’t matter or do you think it doesn’t matter which one wins?

Barack Obama

Not sure

39 44 13 3

39 48 11 2

39 45 14 2

38 44 15 3

37 47 13 2

41 42 13 4

6 87 5 2

32 45 20 3

76 7 13 3

41 46 9 4

37 43 18 3


34 27 39

33 28 40

34 29 37

39 24 37

36 30 34

33 24 43

22 41 37

33 25 42

47 17 36

35 25 40

34 29 37

55 34 11

51 39 10

52 38 10

58 31 11

55 34 11

54 34 11

66 24 10

46 43 11

54 35 11

58 28 14

50 42 8

TOTAL VOTE: Obama vs. Romney Are you certain to vote that way, or is it possible that you will change your mind before Election Day?

Which candidate do you think is having more fun on the campaign trail?

Which of the following comes closer to your view about political ads?

Just part of the process Would pay $100 to make them go away Not sure


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 PURPLE MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE: TRACKING




2012

%

2011

Total

September

August

July

June

April

March

February

January

December Novemeber September



40 52 8

38 53 9

----

----

36 57 7

----

36 57 7

32 60 9

----

22 69 9

20 71 9

----



47 48 5

49 46 5

47 49 4

----

----

----

----

----

----

----

----

----



44 49 7

38 52 10

45 48 7

41 49 10

39 49 12

38 48 15

29 56 14

27 57 16

30 54 16

29 47 24

30 45 25

32 39 29

Approve Disapprove Not sure

45 49 6

47 47 6

43 51 6

46 49 4

47 49 4

47 48 5

46 50 4

44 50 6

45 50 6

41 53 6

41 52 6

41 53 7


47 45 1 7

49 44 -6

46 47 -6

47 45 -8

48 46 -7

48 44 -8

48 44 -8

47 43 -10

46 44 -10

47 43 -11

45 45 -11

43 46 -11

Certain Might change mind

92 6 1

91 8 1

91 7 2

----

----

----

----

----

----

----

----

----

37 40 20 3

34 40 25 1

29 44 25 2

28 42 29 1

-----

36 35 26 1

39 35 24 1

36 37 26 1

-----

-----

-----

-----


TOTAL VOTE: Obama vs. Romney Are you certain to vote that way, or is it possible that you will change your mind before Election Day?

Don’t Know

Getting better Do you think the economy is getting better, getting Getting worse worse or staying about the same? Staying about the same Not sure


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 PURPLE OCTOBER 2012 STATE RESULTS



COLORADO

%

%

%

%

%

%

Gender

Party

Education

Total

Sep ’12

Aug ‘12

July ‘12

June ‘12

April ‘12

Male

Female

GOP

Ind

Dem

Non-coll

Coll+



40 53

40 52

---

---

37 57

---

39 56

41 51

5 91

37 56

77 15

34 59

44 50

7

8

--

--

6

--

5

8

4

7

8

7

6



47 50

50 46

46 50

---

---

---

45 52

49 48

8 91

43 53

88 9

38 59

54 44

3

4

4

--

--

--

2

4

1

4

2

4

2



46 49 5

42 49 9

46 50 4

37 55 9

42 50 7

36 51 14

50 44 5

42 53 5

91 7 2

40 51 9

10 88 2

51 43 6

42 54 5

Approve Disapprove

45 51 4

45 49 7

45 48 8

45 51 4

48 48 5

43 53 4

42 54 4

47 48 5

5 93 1

41 51 8

86 11 4

37 58 5

50 46 3

40

--

--

--

--

--

41

40

39

35

47

41

40

Not sure

59 0

---

---

---

---

---

59 1

59 0

61 0

63 1

53 0

59 0

60 0


50 44 3 2

-----

-----

-----

-----

-----

48 47 3 3

53 42 4 1

7 91 2 0

39 48 8 5

92 6 1 1

39 51 6 3

58 40 1 1


45 48 7

48 45 7

49 46 5

45 44 11

48 46 5

47 47 6

39 53 9

50 43 6

6 92 3

44 39 16

88 10 2

40 52 7

48 45 7


47 46 1 5

48 45 -7

49 46 -5

45 44 -11

48 46 -5

47 47 -6

42 50 1 6

51 43 1 4

6 92 1 2

42 42 3 12

90 8 0 2

40 52 3 6

52 43 0 4

39 42 18 1

38 38 22 2

27 44 27 2

30 42 27 1

-----

37 35 26 1

37 43 19 1

40 42 17 1

4 85 10 1

39 37 23 1

72 8 19 1

30 51 18 1

45 36 18 1




IF HAVEN’T VOTED: If the 2012 election were held today, for whom would you vote?

TOTAL VOTE: Obama vs. Romney





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OHIO

%

%

%

%

%

%

Gender

Party

Education

Total

Sep ’12

Aug ‘12

July ‘12

June ‘12

April ‘12

Male

Female

GOP

Ind

Dem

Non-coll

Coll+



41 53

37 54

---

---

31 62

---

40 54

42 51

10 89

32 60

76 15

43 52

38 54

7

9

--

--

6

--

6

7

1

8

9

5

9



46 48

47 48

45 50

---

---

---

44 52

48 44

6 91

39 52

88 9

48 47

44 50

6

5

5

--

--

--

4

8

3

10

3

6

6



43 50 7

36 52 12

42 52 6

37 50 13

38 48 13

34 54 12

47 46 6

39 53 8

87 8 5

41 48 11

10 86 4

42 51 7

45 47 8

Approve Disapprove

45 49 6

46 47 7

42 52 6

46 49 5

43 52 5

47 47 5

42 53 5

48 45 6

6 93 0

37 53 9

86 9 5

48 47 5

42 51 7

26

--

--

--

--

--

26

25

25

18

35

27

24

Not sure

74 1

---

---

---

---

---

74 0

74 1

75 0

81 1

65 0

73 0

75 1


58 32 5 5

-----

-----

-----

-----

-----

62 25 6 8

54 40 4 2

6 90 0 4

62 26 8 4

85 4 6 5

58 32 6 5

58 33 4 5


42 49 9

48 44 8

44 46 10

48 45 7

45 48 8

49 44 7

36 55 9

48 43 9

5 94 1

35 46 18

87 11 2

43 49 8

41 47 11


46 44 1 8

48 44 -8

44 46 -10

48 45 -7

45 48 -8

49 44 -7

43 47 1 9

49 42 1 8

5 93 0 2

40 42 1 16

86 8 2 3

47 45 2 7

45 44 1 10

38 40 21 1

35 36 28 1

26 45 28 2

33 39 26 2

-----

36 34 29 0

37 41 21 1

40 39 20 1

4 74 21 1

33 42 23 1

72 10 17 1

39 44 17 0

37 35 25 2










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VIRGINIA

%

%

%

%

%

%

Gender

Party

Education

Total

Sep ’12

Aug ‘12

July ‘12

June ‘12

April ‘12

Male

Female

GOP

Ind

Dem

Non-coll

Coll+



40 51

36 54

---

---

36 58

---

41 53

39 49

5 91

37 55

77 13

34 57

47 45

9

10

--

--

6

--

6

12

4

8

11

10

8



48 47

49 46

46 49

---

---

---

47 49

48 46

6 89

45 51

89 8

42 53

54 42

5

5

4

--

--

--

3

6

6

4

3

5

4



45 47 7

38 52 10

47 48 5

41 49 11

43 49 8

36 48 16

47 46 8

44 49 7

84 7 9

50 45 4

9 84 7

51 43 6

40 52 9

Approve Disapprove

45 48 7

45 48 7

42 52 6

45 50 5

45 51 5

45 50 6

46 49 5

45 47 8

7 91 2

41 50 9

87 9 4

38 54 7

52 42 6

9

--

--

--

--

--

11

8

10

7

10

9

10

Not sure

90 1

---

---

---

---

---

88 1

91 1

90 0

92 0

89 1

90 1

89 1


47 51 0 3

-----

-----

-----

-----

-----

44 56 0 1

50 45 0 5

13 80 0 7

31 69 0 0

88 11 0 1

24 71 0 5

69 31 0 1


47 46 7

46 43 11

45 48 8

46 44 10

49 46 5

48 46 6

45 47 9

48 46 6

3 93 4

46 46 8

87 7 6

42 50 7

51 42 7


47 47 0 7

46 43 -11

45 48 -8

46 44 -10

49 46 -5

48 46 -6

45 48 0 8

48 46 0 6

4 91 0 5

45 48 0 8

87 8 0 5

41 52 0 7

53 41 0 6

37 38 23 3

35 40 24 1

32 42 25 1

30 41 27 2

-----

39 35 25 1

36 39 22 3

37 36 23 3

4 66 26 4

32 44 21 2

72 7 19 2

29 42 26 3

44 34 20 2










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 PURPLE OCTOBER 2012 DEMOGRAPHICS



Demographics

By State

% Total

Are you male or female?

Female

47 53

47 53

48 52

46 54

Democrat

35

34

34

36

31

33

27

31

32

32

38

30

Other/Don’t know

2

1

1

3

White

78

81

82

70

Black

11

4

11

20

Hispanic/Latino

7

11

4

4

Other

3

3

2

5

Don’t know/Refused

1

1

1

1

18-29

18

15

19

19

30-44

29

32

29

26

45-64

37

37

36

29

65+

16

15

15

23


1

1

1

3

No college degree

55

44

59

50

College degree or higher

44

55

40

49


1

1

1

1

Male

Republican Do you consider yourself to be a Democrat, Republican, or Independent? Independent

What is your race?

Into which of the following categories does your age fall?

What is the highest level of education you have completed?


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1. Are things in this country generally going in the right direction or are they pretty seriously off on the wrong track? 1) Right direction 2) Wrong track 3) Not sure

8. [IF CANDIDATE SELECTED IN Q7]: Are you certain to vote that way, or is it possible that you will change your mind before Election Day? 1) Certain 2) Might change mind 3) Not sure

2. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Mitt Romney? 1) Favorable 2) Unfavorable 3) Not sure

9. Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse or staying about the same? 1) Getting better 2) Getting worse 3) Staying about the same 4) Not sure

3. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Barack Obama? 1) Favorable 2) Unfavorable 3) Not sure 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? 1) Approve 2) Disapprove 3) Not sure 5. Have you already voted, either through absentee ballot or early voting? 1) Yes 2) No 3) Don’t know 6. [IF VOTED EARLY]: Who did you vote for? 1) Barack Obama 2) Mitt Romney 3) Some other candidate 4) Can’t recall 7. [IF DID NOT VOTE EARLY OR NOT SURE]: If the 2012 presidential election were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? 1) Barack Obama 2) Mitt Romney 3) Not sure

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10. Which candidate is more likely to keep the country safe? 1) Barack Obama 2) Mitt Romney 3) Not sure 11. Do you think the economy will improve more if Obama wins re-election, more if Romney wins the election, or do you think it doesn’t matter which one wins? 1) Barack Obama 2) Mitt Romney 3) Doesn’t matter 4) Nor sure 12. Which candidate do you think is having more fun on the campaign trail? 1) Obama 2) Romney 3) Not sure 13. Which of the following comes closer to your view? 1) Political ads are just part of the process, and while there are a lot of them I understand why they’re on television 2) Political ads are annoying, and I would be willing to pay somebody $100 just to make them go away 3) Not sure

13