PurplePoll April 2012 edition - Purple Strategies

April 2012 Edition

PURPLEPOLL PURPLE INSIGHTS

WHY THE PURPLEPOLL? In 2012, a dozen states will decide whether President Obama is elected to a second term. The PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the Purple Electorate - likely voters only in these swing states. Updated regularly throughout the 2012 election cycle, the PurplePoll offers a unique lens through which you can gather original insight into this critical election. The PurplePoll has built a reputation for accurate, unbiased and cutting-edge polling and analysis. It has been cited on television, in print, and online by sources that span the political spectrum, including: MSNBC, Fox News, ABC News, the Wall Street Journal, Talking Points Memo, Slate, Politico, the National Review and dozens of others. And we will continue to bring you this analysis through the November election, and beyond. For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] or Bruce Haynes [[email protected]], at 703-548-7877. To subscribe, e-mail us at [email protected].

For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.

April 2012

PURPLEPOLL Introducing the Purple Predictors and the Purple Descriptors: An Insiders’ look at Campaign 2012 Our April 2012 PurplePoll shows Mitt Romney getting a second look from voters, with President Obama maintaining a small but consistent lead across the Purple electorate. Economic anxiety is rampant, as voters worry that new jobs are of lower quality than those lost and worry about future generations’ economic outlook. To provide greater detail, we offer two new features in this edition of the PurplePoll: Purple Predictors: We have expanded our sample size to get reads from four key swing states: Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia. These represent the crown jewels of both campaigns’ strategies to win 270 electoral votes. From this month forward we will provide a snapshot of each of these four states that are most likely to decide the election.

to innovate with features like our predictors and descriptors to provide unique insight that you won’t be able to find anywhere else. Mitt Romney’s popularity and favorable/unfavorable ratios have improved since the last PurplePoll, thanks to Republicans coming home and Independents taking a second look.

He improved substantially among Republicans (66% favorable, 20% unfavorable – a net improvement of 35 points), as a result of capturing the putative nominee position. He has also seen a 12 point net improvement among independent voters, among whom 34% have a favorable view of the candidate (49% unfavorable). While these marks are relatively low by historic standards for a major party nominee, April 2012 may mark a key inflection point for him.

The Purple Predictor states are extremely tight.

Romney’s popularity is highest in the Southern Swing region (43% favorable, 43% unfavorable) and lowest in the Heartland region (36% favorable, 51% unfavorable).

In September 2011, the PurplePoll created the first monthly survey of the 12 critical swing states in the 2012 election. We will continue

Obama’s approval rating remains below the national rating of other recent successful presidential incumbents. George W. Bush

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Obama retains a Purple State lead as a result of a strong gender gap. President Obama currently leads Mitt Romney in a general election head to head, 48% to 44%. The gender gap remains exceptionally strong in President Obama’s favor, as he leads among women by 11 points (52% to 41%), while trailing among men by just 4 points (45% to 49%).

President Obama’s job approval ticked up overall, and down among independents—and is problematic for an incumbent President.

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and Ronald Reagain stood at 51% approval at this point in their presidencies, while Bill Clinton was at 55% approval. By Election Day, all three of those re-elected incumbents were at 53% approval or higher.

Over the course of the primary campaign, Mitt Romney’s popularity sank steadily in Purple States to a low point of 27% favorable, 57% unfavorable. In our most recent poll, it has improved for the first time to 38% favorable, 48% unfavorable – a net improvement of 20 points.

Purple Descriptors: As the campaigns turn their attention to the general election, we look at the key leading indicators of opinion: candidate descriptors. Campaigns turn to these to understand where the electorate is moving. While oftentimes in high profile races the movement on vote choice is slow, the constant churn underneath the numbers can be critical in determining the campaign’s future direction. We will provide a periodic look at these key descriptors for the rest of the election cycle.

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 PURPLE ANALYSIS

President Obama’s job performance has moved up a hair in Purple states over the last month with 47% approving of his job performance, while 48% disapprove. However, he is moving the wrong direction with independents, as 52% disapprove of the job he’s doing, up 3 points from last month.

With just under 7 months to go before Election Day, the Purple Predictor states are extremely tight. Obama has a 5-point lead in Ohio (49% to 44%) and a slight lead in Virginia (48% to 46%). The candidates are tied in Colorado (47% to 47%), while Mitt Romney has a 2-point advantage in Florida (47% to 45%). These four states are most likely to swing this election, and today they are just about as tight as can be. Purple State Independents have moved toward Romney in the past month. While the Purple Electorate vote has been steady, independents have moved toward Romney since March. Today, Romney holds a 2-point lead (46% to 44%), while in March President Obama led among this key swing constituency by 8 points. As the general election nears, the race to capture independents begins in earnest. Overall evaluations of the economy have declined, and Purple State voters have serious reservations about the quality of the jobs being created. Pessimism about the future presents a serious challenge for President Obama. continued >

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Thirty-six percent (36%) of Purple State voters believe that the US economy is getting better – down from 39% in March. Among independents, that number has declined to 32%. As we have seen in the past, there is an education gap in this belief. Among those without a college degree, more believe the economy is getting worse (38% getting worse to 34% getting better). The numbers flip among those with a college degree – 38% believe the economy is getting better, while 33% believe it’s getting worse. This general measure may be hiding serious reservations that Purple State voters have about our country’s economic future. Just 24% believe that the jobs being created are better than the jobs that have been lost, while a majority (55%) believe that new jobs are worse. Independents have a greater worry: 18% to 60%. Of larger concern for the Presidential incumbent – and all incumbents at the federal level, for that matter – is the tremendous level of pessimism we see in Purple States regarding the next generation. Just a quarter (25%) believe that their children’s job, benefits and salary will be better when they are their parents’ age. By contrast, 46% (and 50% of independents) believe that things will be worse for their kids. Purple State voters remain essentially optimistic about America’s future, with a majority (51%) saying our best days are ahead of us. However, the economic fundamentals of that hope are clearly at risk – which provides an opportunity for challenger Romney and represents a problem that needs to be addressed by the incumbent President. Our new “Purple Descriptors” provide a closer look at the measures that drive campaign strategy. Our analysis below looks at a selection of these key candidate descriptors, which provide leading indicators to electoral movement. The full list, including results overall and for independents, can be found on page 12.

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Personal descriptors: Purple State voters credit Obama for being closer to them on issues overall, say his wife is more of a “political asset” than Mitt Romney’s. Romney leads on changing Washington. Purple State voters believe that President Obama “is closer to [their] views on the issues” by a 6-point margin (46% to 40%), though that metric is even among independents (42% to 42%). They also – by a large margin – believe he is better described as “[having] a wife who is a political asset” (48% to 30%). Indeed, just a small majority of Republicans give Romney an advantage on that dimension (55% to 21%). At the same time, Romney appears to have the advantage on “change.” He trails Obama by 1 point overall on “will do what it takes to change things in Washington” (43% to 44%). However, he holds a 10-point advantage among independents on this measure (46% to 36%). The Economy: Purple State voters give Obama the advantage for his economic plans overall, but Romney is tied or ahead among Purple State independents Purple State voters believe that President Obama “has the right ideas to build the economy in a way that will provide more opportunities for you” (42% to 38%), and “for the next generation” (44% to 41%). However, those advantages disappear when looking just at independents (37%/38%, and 39%/39% respectively). The battle for the presidency may well rest on how Purple State voters view the candidates through this lens as the campaign continues. Foreign Policy: Obama and Romney trade advantages among Purple State voters On the wars of the past decade, President Obama holds a solid advantage. By 10 points (43% to 33%), voters believe that President Obama “shares [their] views on US involvement

 PURPLE ANALYSIS

in Iraq and Afghanistan.” He also holds a 4-point advantage among independents on this measure (37% to 33%). At the same time, independents side with Romney on Iran and Israel. Obama holds a slim 1-point advantage (40% to 39%) on the statement “would do a better job handling Iran and protecting Israel.” Among independents, Romney holds an eight-point advantage (39% to 31%). Overall, Purple State voters believe that Obama “would be a stronger Commander-in-Chief” (47% to 44%), but independents believe Romney would be stronger (45% to 39%). As with other issues, foreign policy appears to divide Purple State voters down the middle. The negatives: Romney is more likely to be seen by Purple State voters as “too close to Wall Street” and “just another politician,” but Purple State voters are more likely to “have serious concerns about what [President Obama] would do to the country over the next four years.” We explored negative candidate attributes to provide insight into potential attacks from either side. Mitt Romney is seen as “too close to Wall Street” by a 14-point margin (42% to 28%) and by a 6-point margin among independents (38% to 32%). The two candidates are evenly divided on being “just another politician” (Obama 42%, Romney 41%, with Obama holding a 4-point “edge” among independents). However, asked about the statement “I have serious concerns about what he would do to the country over the next four years,” 48% say it applies to Obama, 43% say Romney. That margin expands to 11 points among independents (48% to 37%). A strategic imperative for the Obama campaign will be to blunt that concern (or push up the numbers for Romney), because his proximity to 50% on this measure is a leading indicator of potential electoral difficulties.

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 PURPLE OVERALL


PURPLEPOLL

OVERALL:

April 2012

ABOUT PURPLE STRATEGIES Purple is a fully integrated, bipartisan team that excels at merging red and blue perspectives to find effective strategic solutions. We look to build a consensus that will support a public affairs initiative, influence a debate or stimulate change. Our team includes experts in opinion research, strategic communications, grassroots, government affairs, digital communications and creative. Recognizing the need for a balanced, bipartisan approach to corporate communications and issue advocacy, Alex Castellanos and Steve McMahon merged two well-established Republican and Democratic firms – National Media and Issue & Image – to create Purple Strategies. By joining forces, Purple brings together strategists and communication specialists from across the political spectrum, including veteran political strategists Bruce Haynes, Mark Squier, Rob Collins and Jim Jordan.

Obama approval

Nationally: jobs created vs. jobs lost

Approve: 47% Disapprove: 48% Not sure: 5%

Better: 24% Worse: 55% Not sure: 21%

Romney favorability

Locally: jobs created vs. jobs lost

Favorable: 38% Unfavorable: 48% Not sure: 15%


2012: Obama vs. Romney

Job situation locally

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WHAT IS THE PURPLEPOLL? Unlike other polls, the PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the 12 states that are most likely to determine whether President Obama will win re-election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. These states were won by President Obama en route to his 365 electoral votes. Since 1996, nine of these states have swung between the Republican and Democratic candidates. Three states (MN, PA, and WI) have been decided by 3 points or less at least once since 2000. The voters in these states have held the presidential election balance for the past dozen years, and will continue to do so in 2012. Updated regularly throughout the 2012 election cycle, the PurplePoll will follow leading political indicators and track new issues as they emerge. It will offer a unique lens to gather original insight into this critical election. In addition to data from the overall Purple electorate, we divide the data into regional state clusters: “The Wild West” (CO, NV, NM), “The Heartland” (IA, MN, WI), “The Rust Belt” (NH, OH, PA) and “The Southern Swing” (NC, VA, FL). These groupings help provide more texture to our results. We also include statewide results for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. The PurplePoll is fielded and analyzed by Purple Insights, the research division of Purple Strategies, the bipartisan public affairs firm. Fielded 4/19-4/23, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=1705 likely voters, margin of error +/-2.4. Each regional and state-level sample has margins of error of +/-4.1.

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Obama: 48% Romney: 44% Not sure: 8%

Direction of economy Getting better: 36% Getting worse: 35% Staying about the same: 28% Not sure: 1%

Plenty of jobs: 18% Difficult to find: 73% Not sure: 9%

In the future, jobs and salary will be Worse: 46% The same: 22% Better: 25% Not sure: 7%

Best days for country Behind us: 35% Ahead us: 51% Not sure: 14%

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 PURPLE OVERALL


The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico

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The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

PURPLE TRACKING

The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania

April 2012

The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia

Direction of Economy

Obama Job Approval

45%

60%

40%

37%

39%

35%

36%

35%

30%

36%

40%

28% 26%

20%

Getting Better

10%

Getting Worse

50%

48%

46%

47%

45%

44%

Dec. ‘11

Jan. ‘12

Feb. ‘12

Mar. ‘12

Apr. ‘12

47%

46%

47%

48%

48%

43%

44%

43%

44%

44%

Jan. ‘12

Feb. ‘12

Mar. ‘12

Apr. ‘12

41%

20%

41%

Approve Not Sure

10%

0%

0% Feb. ‘11

Mar. ‘12

Apr. ‘12

Sep. ‘11

Romney Favorability

57% 45%

50%

47%

54%

60%

56% 48%

39% 32%

30%

30% 20% 10%

Nov. ‘11

Obama vs. Romney

60%

40%

41%

50%

Disapprove

Same

5%

50%

30%

24%

15%

53%

52%

50%

35%

25%

53%

29%

30%

27%

29%

38%

50%

46%

45%

40%

43%

45%

30%

Barack Obama Mitt Romney

20%

Unfavorable

Not Sure

Favorable

10%

Not Sure

0%

0% Sep. ‘11

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Nov. ‘11

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Dec. ‘11

Jan. ‘12

Feb. ‘12

Mar. ‘12

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Apr. ‘12

Sep. ‘11

Nov. ‘11

Dec. ‘11

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 PURPLE BY REGION



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The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania

April 2012


The Wild West

The Heartland

Obama approval


Obama approval






Romney favorability


Romney favorability














In the future, jobs and salary will be

Direction of economy

Worse: 48% The same: 21% Better: 23% Not sure: 7%

Getting better: 35% Getting worse: 28% Staying about the same: 34% Not sure: 3%

Best days for country


Behind us: 35% Ahead us: 52% Not sure: 14%


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PURPLE BY REGION  PURPLE:BY



PURPLEPOLL


April 2012


The Rust Belt

The Southern Swing

Obama approval


Obama approval






Romney favorability


Romney favorability






















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 PURPLE PREDICTOR STATES



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April 2012


Virginia

Colorado Obama approval


Obama approval






Romney favorability


Romney favorability






















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 PURPLE PREDICTOR STATES



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April 2012


Florida

Ohio Obama approval


Obama approval






Romney favorability


Romney favorability






















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 PURPLE APRIL 2012 MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE



PURPLEPOLL


April 2012


April 2012 Main Questionnaire

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Region

Party

Gender

By State

Total Mar’12 Feb’12 Jan’12 Dec‘11 Nov‘11 Sep‘11

Male Female GOP

Ind

Education Dem Non-Coll Coll+

Approve

47

46

44

45

41

41

41

46

46

45

45

43

45

47

46

44

49

11

40

84

47

46

Disapprove

48

50

50

50

53

52

53

50

48

49

49

53

50

47

50

52

44

86

52

11

49

48

Not sure

5

4

6

6

6

6

7

4

5

5

5

4

6

5

4

3

7

3

8

5

4

6

Favorable

38

29

27

30

29

30

32

36

36

35

43

36

36

34

45

42

34

66

34

15

37

38

Unfavorable

48

56

57

54

47

45

39

49

51

49

43

51

48

54

44

46

49

20

49

73

46

49

Not sure

15

14

16

16

24

25

29

15

12

16

14

14

16

12

12

12

17

15

17

12

16

12

Obama

48

48

47

46

47

45

43

48

50

47

47

47

48

49

45

45

52

11

44

87

48

50

Romney

44

44

43

44

43

45

46

46

44

45

46

47

46

44

47

49

41

82

46

9

45

44

Not sure

8

8

10

10

11

11

11

6

6

8

7

6

6

7

7

6

7

7

10

4

8

6

Getting better

36

39

36

-

-

-

-

34

35

34

34

37

39

36

33

36

35

11

32

60

34

38

Getting worse

35

35

37

-

-

-

-

36

28

39

37

35

35

34

38

37

34

60

35

14

38

33

Staying the same

28

24

26

-

-

-

-

28

34

26

27

26

25

29

28

26

30

29

33

23

27

29

Don’t know

1

1

1

-

-

-

-

1

3

0

1

1

1

0

1

1

2

1

1

2

2

0

As a country, do you think our Behind us best days are behind us, or are Ahead of us they still ahead of us? Not sure

35

-

-

-

-

-

-

35

33

36

37

37

35

34

35

38

33

46

38

25

36

35

51

-

-

-

-

-

-

52

52

50

49

47

53

53

51

49

52

40

47

63

50

52

14

-

-

-

-

-

-

14

15

15

13

16

12

13

13

13

15

14

15

12

14

13

Jobs now being created nationwide are better or worse than the jobs that were lost in the last few years?

Better

24

-

-

-

-

-

-

22

20

22

24

20

28

25

22

22

25

10

18

40

26

21

Worse

55

-

-

-

-

-

-

55

55

57

56

57

51

55

58

61

50

76

60

35

54

58

Not sure

21

-

-

-

-

-

-

23

25

21

20

23

21

20

20

17

24

14

22

25

21

21

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Mitt Romney?

Would you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse or staying about the same?

Fielded 4/19-4/23, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=1705 likely voters, margin of error +/-2.4. Each regional and state-level sample has margins of error of +/-4.1.

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 PURPLE APRIL 2012 MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE



PURPLEPOLL


April 2012


April 2012 Main Questionnaire

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Region

By State

Party

Gender

Total Mar’12 Feb’12 Jan’12 Dec‘11 Nov‘11 Sep‘11

Male Female GOP

Ind

Education Dem Non-Coll Coll+

Locally, do you think that the jobs now being created are better or worse than the jobs lost in the last few years?

Better

25

-

-

-

-

-

-

25

23

23

25

23

32

25

24

22

27

12

20

40

26

23

Worse

55

-

-

-

-

-

-

54

52

57

57

54

48

56

58

61

50

74

58

38

56

55

Not sure

20

-

-

-

-

-

-

21

25

20

18

23

21

18

18

17

23

14

22

23

18

22

Are there plenty of jobs available in your area or are jobs difficult to find?

Plenty of jobs

18

-

-

-

-

-

-

17

18

17

16

18

28

17

14

19

17

9

16

27

18

19

Difficult to find

73

-

-

-

-

-

-

73

68

75

76

73

66

75

77

73

73

85

75

61

74

72

Not sure

9

-

-

-

-

-

-

10

14

8

8

9

7

8

9

8

10

6

8

12

8

10

Worse

46

-

-

-

-

-

-

48

44

50

45

49

50

50

45

49

43

58

50

32

48

44

The Same

22

-

-

-

-

-

-

21

26

22

20

24

20

20

20

23

22

19

20

27

20

25

Better

25

-

-

-

-

-

-

23

23

23

26

21

24

25

26

23

26

14

23

35

25

24

Not sure

7

-

-

-

-

-

-

7

6

6

9

6

6

5

9

5

9

9

7

6

8

7

In the future: your children’s job/ salary/benefits _____ than yours?

Fielded 4/19-4/23, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=1705 likely voters, margin of error +/-2.4. Each regional and state-level sample has margins of error of +/-4.1.

April 2012 Main Questionnaire 1.Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? 1) Approve 2) Disapprove 3) Not sure 2. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Mitt Romney? 1) Favorable 2) Unfavorable 3) Not sure 3. If the 2012 presidential election were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? 1) Barack Obama 2) Mitt Romney 3) Not sure

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4. Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse or staying about the same? 1) Getting better 2) Getting worse 3) Staying about the same 4) Don’t Know 5. As a country, do you think our best days are behind us, or are they still ahead of us? 1) Behind us 2) Ahead of us 3) Not sure 6. Do you think that the jobs now being created nationwide are better or worse than the jobs that were lost in the last few years? 1) Better 2) Worse 3) Not sure

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7. Now thinking about where you live, do you think that the jobs now being created in your area are better or worse than the jobs that were lost in the last few years? 1) Better 2) Worse 3) Not sure 8. Generally speaking, would you say there are plenty of jobs available in your area or are jobs difficult to find? 1) Plenty of jobs 2) Difficult to find 3) Not sure 9. Looking ahead, do you think when your children reach your age their job, salary and benefits will be worse than yours, the same as yours, or better than yours? 1) Worse 2) The same 3) Better 4) Not sure

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 PURPLE DESCRIPTOR TRACKING RESULTS


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Barack Obama

April 2012

OVERALL

Mitt Romney

ADV.*

INDEPENDENT

ADV.*

0

0

48

30

18

Has a wife who is a political asset

10

42

32

43

33

10

Shares your views on US involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan

4

37

33

48

43

5

I have serious concerns about what he would do to the country over the next four years

11

48

37

46

40

6

Is closer to my views on the issues

0

42

42

42

38

4

Has the right ideas to build the economy in a way that will provide more opportunities for you

0

37

38

42

38

4

Has the right ideas to build the economy in a way that will provide opportunities where you live

0

35

37

47

44

3

Would be a stronger Commander in Chief

6

39

45

44

41

3

Has the right ideas to build the economy in a way that can improve the lives of the next generation

0

39

39

43

39

3

Would really do what he promises

1

37

36

40

39

1

Would do a better job handling Iran and protecting Israel

8

31

39

44

43

1

Will do what it takes to change things in Washington

10

36

46

44

44

0

Has better ideas for creating jobs and economic growth

8

37

44

42

41

0

Is just another politician

4

43

39

28

42

14

Is too close to Wall Street

7

32

38

*slight differences due to rounding SUBSCRIBE TO

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