raffles medical group ltd - InvestingNote

RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD Strong sustainable growth outlook

4 March 2015

SINGAPORE | HEALTHCARE | UPDATE   

Strong growth prospects supported by government initiatives and ageing demographics. Expanding Raffles Hospital’s space by 70% to cater for future growth. Reiterate Accumulate on strong growth prospects with unchanged TP of S$4.49.

Investment Merits   

Key beneficiary of government initiative’s to shift patients from overburdened public healthcare system to private this year. Further growth from new five-story commercial mall and hospital extension, expected to be ready in 1Q16 and 1Q17 respectively. Sustainable growth driven by ageing population and longer life expectancy.

ACCUMULATE (MAINTAIN) SGD 3.93 SGD 0.06 SGD 4.49 15.8%

CLOSING PRICE FORECAST DIV TARGET PRICE TOTAL RETURN COMPANY DATA O/S SHA RES (M N) :

565

M A RKET CA P (USD mn / SGD mn) :

1619.5 / 2207.9

52 - WK HI/LO (SGD) :

4.11/ 3.11

3M A verage Daily T/O (mn) :

0.33

MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS (%)

Raffles Medical Group expects to see greater increase in patients visiting its medical clinics as elderly (aged 65 and above) Singaporeans would be eligible for government medical and dental care subsidies from Sep-2014. It may also benefit under a emergency care collaboration with the Singapore Civil Defence Force (SCDF) whereby its hospital would start receiving non-critical ambulance cases from mid-2015.

RAFFLES MEDICAL HOLDINGS CHOON YONG LOO ABERDEEN FIL LIMITED S&D HOLDINGS PTE LTD

Construction works on both hospital extension and the new commercial mall projects is in progress. Raffles Hospital would add an additional 200,000 sqf or 73% to its existing 300,000 sqf of gross floor area (GFA) upon completion of the hospital extension works.

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1M T H

3 M TH

1Y R

COM P A NY

(1.8)

1.8

22.9

The new S$120 million mall would be situated in Holland Village, a popular shopping and dining location among locals and expatriates. The mall would accommodate the group’s own outpatient medical and specialist clinics for its patients. About 36,000 sqf of space would be leased out to other tenants, generating additional rental revenue which we estimated at about S$6 million (based on S$13.73 psf/mth median for retail outlets in Holland Avenue and Holland Road from URA REALIS data over Jan-Dec 14 period).

STI RETURN

(0.5)

2.8

12.8

38.5% 10.0% 6.0% 4.3% 3.2%

PRICE VS. STI 4.20

3.70

3.20

Plans for growth expansion overseas  

Intend to build a 200-bed private hospital in Shenzhen to provide medical and healthcare services in the Pearl River Delta region in Feb 2013. Signed framework agreement in Sep 2013 to build a 300-bed private hospital in Pudong, Shanghai.

2.70 Mar-14

Jun-14 Sep-14 RFMD SP Equity

Dec-14 Mar-15 FSSTI Index

So urce: B lo o mberg, P SR

KEY FINANCIALS

Key risks

SGD M N

F Y 13

F Y 14

F Y 15e

F Y 16 e

   

Revenue

341

375

413

460

EB ITDA

78

87

95

111

NP A T (adj.)

61

65

71

82

Patients flow from private to public healthcare system on better capacity and quality. Rising medical staff costs. Execution risks or delays in the two development projects. Tighter competition from regional peers.

EP S (adj.)

0.11

0.12

0.13

0.14

P ER, x (adj.)

28.1

33.7

31.1

27.4

P /B V, x

Investment Actions Maintain Accumulate on strong sustainable growth outlook ahead with unchanged TP of S$4.49.

DP S (S cts) Div Yield, % ROE, %

3.6

4.1

3.7

3.4

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

1.6%

1.4%

1.5%

1.7%

14.1%

12.8%

12.9%

13.4%

So urce: Co mpany Data, P SR est.

VALUATION METHOD DCF (WACC: 7.5%; terminal g: 3.0%) Colin Tan

(+65 6531 1221)

[email protected]

Page | 1 | PHILLIP SECURITIES RESEARCH (SINGAPORE) MCI (P) 019/11/2014 Ref. No.: SG2015_0088

RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD RESULTS Fig 1: Singapore old-age support ratio (x) residents aged 65y & above ('000)

('000) 500

old-age support ratio (x)

400 300

8.1

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.5

7.4

7.2

6.7

6.4

6.0

2012

2013

2014

200 100 0 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Source: SingStat, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

Fig 2: Revenue growth (m n)

Revenue (S$mn)

500

YoY Growth (%)

14.2

14.1

400

9.4

9.9

10.3

FY13

FY14

FY15e

9.4

11.2

300 200 100 0 FY10

FY11

FY12

FY16e

Source: Company, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore) estimates

Fig 3: Profit margins (m n)

90

PATMI, adj (S$mn) 23.8

EBITDA margin (%)

Net margin (%) 24.1

23.7

22.6

23.0

23.2

23.0

17.3

17.2

FY14

FY15e

60

30

17.7

17.7

FY10

FY11

17.8 17.0

17.9

0 FY12

FY13

FY16e


Fig 4: Dividends payout (S cts)

DPS (S cts)

EPS (S cts)

Payout (%)

20 15

40

42

45

43

46

44

32 10 5

6.5

5.0

6.0

4.0

4.5

5.5

3.5 FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15e

FY16e

0


Page | 2 | PHILLIP SECURITIES RESEARCH (SINGAPORE)

RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD RESULTS Fig 5: Selected peer comparison Mkt Cap Ent Val P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Div Yield ROE FYE (S$m) (S$m) FY14/15e FY15/16e FY14/15e FY15/16e FY14/15e FY15/16e FY14/15e FY15/16e FY14/15e FY15/16e Dec 2,208 2,066 29.2 25.7 3.8 3.4 21.0 17.8 1.4 1.5 13.6 14.2 Peers' average: 30.0 25.8 5.3 4.6 16.9 14.8 2.0 2.1 20.2 20.1 IHH SP IHH HEALTHCARE B Dec 16,848 18,234 47.2 38.3 2.2 2.2 21.8 18.6 0.5 0.6 4.8 5.7 RHC AU RAMSAY HEALTH Jun 14,646 17,897 34.2 29.2 7.8 6.9 15.5 13.3 1.5 1.8 22.3 23.7 RHC AU RAMSAY HEALTH Jun 14,646 17,897 34.2 29.2 7.8 6.9 15.5 13.3 1.5 1.8 22.3 23.7 RYM NZ RYMAN HEALTHCARE Mar 4,136 4,519 25.6 22.2 3.9 3.4 23.1 20.0 1.7 1.9 13.6 14.9 PRY AU PRIMARY HEALTH Jun 2,654 3,879 18.6 16.9 1.0 1.0 8.7 8.3 4.0 4.2 5.6 5.7 KPJ MK KPJ HEALTHCARE Dec 1,567 1,964 30.1 27.6 3.1 2.9 15.0 13.4 1.7 1.8 10.8 10.9 TKMED SP TALKMED GROUP LT Dec 693 652 17.0 16.2 11.7 9.6 13.4 12.8 4.4 4.5 74.0 65.0 QNM SP Q&M DENTAL GROUP Dec 417 430 31.5 26.8 4.5 4.1 19.8 16.6 1.5 1.7 15.2 17.1 ISEC SP ISEC HEALTHCARE Dec 215 206 31.3 26.1 #N/A N/A #N/A N/A 19.3 16.6 0.9 0.9 13.4 14.3 BB Ticker Company RFMD SP RAFFLES MEDICAL

Source: Bloomberg


RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD RESULTS

Financials Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Y/E Dec, SGD mn

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15e

FY16e

Revenue Opera ti ng expens es EBITDA Depreci a ti on & Amorti s a ti on EBIT As s oci a tes & JVs Net Fi na nce (Expens e)/Inc Other i tems PBT Ta x PAT Mi nori ty i nteres t Net Income, reported Net Income, adj.

312 (241) 70 (8) 62 0 0 4 67 (9) 57 (0) 57 53

341 (263) 78 (8) 70 0 1 24 95 (10) 85 (0) 85 61

375 (288) 87 (10) 77 0 1 3 81 (13) 68 (0) 68 65

413 (318) 95 (10) 85 0 1 3 89 (15) 74 (0) 74 71

460 (349) 111 (12) 98 0 1 3 102 (17) 86 (0) 85 82

Per share data

Y/E Dec, SG cents EPS, reported EPS, a dj. DPS BVPS

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15e

FY16e

ASSETS PPE Inta ngi bl es Inves tment properti es Others Total non-current assets Tra de & other recei va bl es Ca s h ba l a nce Others Total current assets Total Assets

154 0 195 0 349 38 102 5 146 495

154 0 100 0 254 44 266 9 319 573

228 0 228 3 459 37 150 9 196 655

363 0 228 3 594 54 87 13 153 747

464 0 228 3 695 60 40 14 113 808

LIABILITIES Short-term debt Tra de a nd other pa ya bl es Others Total current liabilities Long-term debt Others

20 66 17 104 0 2

5 73 20 98 0 2

6 74 24 105 0 10

6 97 24 127 0 10

6 106 24 137 0 10

2

2

10

10

10

1 388

1 473

1 539

2 609

2 659

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15e

FY16e

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15e

FY16e

Total non-current liabilities

10.53 9.80 4.50 71.29

15.43 11.02 5.00 85.31

12.09 11.55 5.50 95.50

13.03 12.50 6.00 106.12

14.72 14.21 6.50 112.86

EQUITY Mi nori ty i nteres t Shareholder Equity

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15e

FY16e

Cash Flows

Y/E Dec, SGD mn

Y/E Dec, SGD mn

Valuation Ratios

Y/E Dec, SGD mn

CFO P/E (X), a dj. 26.7 28.1 33.7 31.1 27.4 PBT 67 95 81 89 102 P/B (X) 3.7 3.6 4.1 3.7 3.4 Adjus tments 6 (14) 9 9 12 EV/EBITDA (X) 19.1 18.6 23.6 22.2 19.5 WC cha nges 6 0 13 2 2 Di vi dend Yi el d (%) 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% Ca s h genera ted from ops 79 82 103 100 116 Growth & Margins (%) Ta xes pa i d, others (9) (10) (10) (15) (17) Growth Cashflow from ops 70 71 93 85 99 Revenue 14.2% 9.4% 9.9% 10.3% 11.2% CFI EBITDA 8.9% 11.4% 11.1% 9.4% 16.5% CAPEX, net (10) (8) (18) (145) (113) EBIT 8.9% 12.2% 10.4% 10.0% 15.6% Acqui s i ti on, others (1) 119 (188) 1 1 Net Income, a dj. 9.7% 14.5% 6.7% 10.0% 15.6% Cashflow from investing (10) 111 (206) (144) (112) Margins CFF EBITDA ma rgi n 22.6% 23.0% 23.2% 23.0% 24.1% Sha re i s s ua nce 4 6 8 9 0 EBIT ma rgi n 20.0% 20.5% 20.6% 20.6% 21.4% Loa ns , net of repa yments (1) (15) 1 0 0 Net Profi t Ma rgi n 17.0% 17.8% 17.3% 17.2% 17.9% Di vi dends (9) (10) (12) (13) (34) Key Ratios Others (0) (0) (0) 0 0 ROE (%) 14.6% 14.1% 12.8% 12.9% 13.4% Cashflow from financing (6) (19) (3) (4) (34) ROA (%) 11.5% 11.3% 10.5% 10.6% 11.0% Effects of excha nge ra tes (0) 0 0 0 0 Net change in cash 53 163 (116) (63) (47) Interes t covera ge (X) 7.9 8.5 8.0 8.4 7.9 CCE, end 102 266 150 87 40 Net gea ri ng (X) Net ca s hNet ca s hNet ca s hNet ca s hNet ca s h Source: Compa ny, Phi l l i p Securi ti es Res ea rch (Si nga pore) Es ti ma tes *Forward multiples and yields are based on current market price; historical multiples and yields are based on historical market price.


RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD RESULTS Ratings History Market Price Target Price

4.90

Source: Bl oomberg, PSR

4.40 3.90 3.40 2.90

2.40

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

1 2 3 4 5 PSR Rating System Total Returns Recommendation Rating > +20% Buy 1 +5% to +20% Accumul a te 2 -5% to +5% Neutra l 3 -5% to -20% Reduce 4