Data from MEED projects suggests that new construction tenders across the UAE could increase by more than 95% in 2017 to
UAE THE
REAL ESTATE MARKET 2016: A Year In Review
8% 7%
%
6% 5% 4% 3% 2%
Macroeconomic Overview
1% 2016 was a challenging year for the real estate sector. GDP growth 0% declined from 4.5% in 2013 2015 to just 2.3%2014 in 2016 and employment 2015 growth remained relatively flat at 1.5% in %2016, as companies growth in employment consolidated their operations, particularly in the oil and banking Source: Oxford Economics sectors.
GDP growth figures for Dubai declined at a slower rate of 1.8% between 2016 compared to2018F Abu Dhabi, which declined 2016F 2015 and 2017F 4.2%. Thein oil % growth UAEsector GDP comprises half of Abu Dhabi’s GDP so the reduced oil price means lower GDP from oil. Meanwhile, Dubai’s economy is more diversified.
UAE macro-economic indicators 6% 5%
%
4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2013
2014
2015
% growth in employment
2016F
2017F
2018F
% growth in UAE GDP
Source: Oxford Economics
While remaining far below their 2014/2015 levels, oil prices have recovered by about 46% during 2016, increasing steadily from USD 30 per barrel in January to USD 45 per barrel in December 2016. Crude oil and natural gas account for about 30% of the GDP of the UAE and lower oil prices have therefore been a major driver of the reduced rate of economic growth in 2016.
55
55 Oil Prices (Brent
50
50
Price per barrel (USD)
Price per barrel (USD)
In November 2016, OPEC members agreed to cut oil production by about 1.2 million barrels a day, effective January 2017. OPEC members aim to negotiate a reduction of 600,000 barrels a day
from non-OPEC oil producers, but the viability of this option remains to be seen. Capping oil production would resolve the oil surplus in the market, leading to higher market prices, with Oxford Economics predicting a further modest growth in prices during 2017 to just over USD 50 per barrel. As the regional economic situation improves, an increase in GCC tourism is expected to contribute significantly to the recovery of the hospitality and retail sectors, reflecting positively on the UAE real estate market as a whole.
45 40 35 30 25 Jan '16
Feb '16
Mar '16
Apr '16
Source: US Energy Information Administration
Spot Price)
Oil Prices (Brent Spot Price)
45 40 35 30
25 May '16 Jan '16Jun '16 Feb '16Jul '16 Mar '16Aug '16 Apr '16Sep '16 May '16Oct '16 Jun '16Nov '16 Jul '16
Aug '16
Sep '16
Oct '1
Source: US Energy Information Administration
Although the short-term challenges adjusting of to adjusting the new Dubai is also benefiting real estate Although the short-termofchallenges tonormal thethe newshort-term normal ofchallenges lower oil revenues are from considerable, the spending Although of adjusting to the increased new normal of lower oilonrevenues are consider of lower oil revenues are considerable, theUAE medium-term picture for picture in the leadinup thelargest Expo emirates 2020. from MEED medium-term picture for the economy ismedium-term more positive. Theprojects real estate market the two for the UAE economy istomore positive. The Data real estate market projects in the two larges (Dubai and Abu Dhabi) reflect relative economic strengths. Thereflect greater diversification of the Dubai economy (Dubai Abu Dhabi) their relative economic strengths. The greaterthe diversification the UAE economy is more positive. The real their estate market in theand two suggests that new construction tenders across UAE couldof the Du and the early downturn of real estate prices (from mid-2014) means the Dubai residential market is now poised and the early downturn of real estate prices (from mid-2014) means the Dubai residential market is n largest emirates (Dubai and Abu Dhabi) reflect their relative economic increase by more than 95% in 2017 to reach USD 100 billion, although close to its cyclical trough, while prices may close have further to fall in Abu Dhabi. to its prices may have furthertotomaterialise. fall in Abu Dhabi. strengths. The greater diversification of the Dubai economy and thecyclical trough, not all while of these projects are likely The majority of this
earlier downturnDubai of real estate pricesfrom (from mid-2014) means the additional spending istoontheprojects inestate Dubai (USD 66 billion). is also benefiting increased spending onis real projects the lead up Expo 2020. Data Dubai alsoestate benefiting frominincreased spending on real projects in the lead up to the Expo 20 from MEEDisprojects suggests thattonew tenders across the UAE by more thanacross 95% inthe UAE could increase by more fromtrough, MEED projects suggests thatcould newincrease construction tenders Dubai residential market now poised closer its construction cyclical the majority thisDhabi. additional spending in Dubai (. additional spending on projects in Dubai (. 2017, on withprojects the majority of this while prices may2017, havewith further to fall inofAbu COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2017
Dubai Prime Rental Clock Retail
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Residential
Retail
Hotel* Rental Growth Slowing
Rents Falling
Rental Growth Slowing
Rents Falling
Rental Growth Accelerating
Rents Bottoming Out
Rental Growth Accelerating
Rents Bottoming Out
Office
Office
Hotel*
Residential
Abu Dhabi Prime Rental Clock Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Residential
Office
Residential
Rental Growth Slowing
Rents Falling
Rental Growth Slowing
Rents Falling
Hotel*
Office
Hotel*
Rental Growth Accelerating
Rents Bottoming Out
Rental Growth Accelerating
Rents Bottoming Out
Retail
Retail
* Hotel clock reflects the movement of RevPAR Note: The property clock is a graphical tool developed by JLL to illustrate where a market sits within its individual rental cycle. These positions are not necessarily representative of investment or development market prospects. It is important to recognise that markets move at different speeds depending on their maturity, size and economic conditions. Markets will not always move in a clockwise direction, they might move backwards or remain at the same point in their cycle for extended periods. Source: JLL COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2017
Office Market Summary SUPPLY The Dubai office market saw the delivery of 129,000 sq m of GLA in 2016, bringing the total stock to 8.55 million sq m. The majority of these completions were in Business Bay (56%) and TECOM A & B (32%). Notable completions were Westbury Square and B2B Office Tower in Business Bay, as well as The Butterfly in Dubai Media City. Approximately 10,300 sq m of office space was completed in Q4 2016, including The Edge in Dubai Internet City. 2017 is expected to witness the completion of approximately 300,000 sq m of office space, with 30% of the expected supply in Business Bay, 22% in the Greens (Onyx Towers) and 20% in JLT (Amesco Tower), highlighting a shift away from the CBD to other areas in the city.
The Abu Dhabi office market saw the completion of 214,000 sq m of GLA in 2016, bringing the total stock to 3.5 million sq m. Most of the completions occurred in the first half of the year, on Abu Dhabi Island, such as Bloom Central and the ADNOC HQ. Maryah Tower and the new FGB HQ were also completed in 2016. A further 210,000 sq m of GLA is expected to enter the market in 2017, dominated by the delivery of ADIB on Airport Road, as well as Leaf and Omega towers on Reem Island.
Dubai Office Supply (2013–2018F)
Abu Dhabi Office Supply (2013–2018F) 4,000
84
9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500
7,612
7,753
8,427
8,556
8,556
Source: JLL
2014 2015 Completed
2016 2017F Future Supply
144
8,858
3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500
2013
211
3,500
302
GLA (000's) sq m
GLA (000's) sq m
9,500
0
2018F
3,130
3,173
2013
2014 2015 Completed
Source: JLL
3,319
3,533
3,533
3,744
2016 2017F Future Supply
2018F
PERFORMANCE In Dubai, average Grade A rents remained largely flat throughout 2016, at AED 1,948 per sq m. In Abu Dhabi, Grade A rents fell 5% Y-o-Y from AED 1,850 per sq m to AED 1,760 per sq m as of Q4 2016. Although office rental performance remained stable, the demand is weak and this is reflected by the ongoing consolidation of many businesses. We expect this trend to continue in 2017 as occupiers impose greater downward pressure, particularly on strata-owned properties in peripheral areas. Single-owned well-managed buildings with good amenities in central locations are likely to maintain current performance levels over the next year.
In Dubai, occupancy rates remain strong due to reasonable demand and limited supply. In addition, there is growing interest and construction in areas such as Business Bay and Silicon Oasis, historically seen as secondary locations. As for Abu Dhabi, there is a general softening in demand due to the decline of the oil sector, a reduction in government spending and mergers between several government entities such as NBAD/FGB and Mubadala/IPIC.
CBD Rents (per sq m ) / Annual Change
Source: JLL Source: JLL
Dubai Dubai CBD Rents CBD Rents
Abu Dhabi Abu Dhabi CBD Rents CBD Rents
(AED per(AED sq m)per sq m)
(AED per(AED sq m)per sq m)
1,946 1,946
1,948 1,948
0%
0%
1,850 1,850
1,760 1,760
-5%
-5%
Q4 2015 Q4 2015
Q4 2016 Q4 2016
Y-o-Y
Y-o-Y
Q4 2015 Q4 2015
Q4 2016 Q4 2016
Y-o-Y
Y-o-Y
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2017
Residential Market Summary SUPPLY Abu Dhabi saw fewer completions than its neighboring emirate, with only 3,100 residential units completed during 2016, bringing the total stock to 248,000 units. In Q4 2016, 700 units entered the market (mainly the Marina Bay One and Marina Bay Two towers on Reem Island). Looking ahead, we expect completions in 2017 along the Corniche, Al Raha Beach, Reem and Saadiyat Islands, adding approximately 5,000 units. However, similar to Dubai, the rate of materialisation is likely to be below announced supply, as projects are delayed
Dubai Residential Supply (2013–2018F)
Abu Dhabi Residential Supply (2013–2018F)
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
300
24
31
434
449
2013
2014 2015 Completed
Source: JLL
456
471
471
502
2016 2017F Future Supply
250
Number of Units (000's)
Number of Units (000's)
A total of 14,600 residential units entered the Dubai residential market in 2016, the highest level since 2012 (16,000 units). Contributing to the volume of completions were 1,500 villas for Emirates staff in Meydan and 690 units in Wasl Oasis II in Muhaisnah. The last quarter witnessed the completion of more than 1,000 Mira townhouses in Reem Community by Emaar and 1,200 apartment units in City Walk Phase 1 by Meraas. There are 31,000 units scheduled for completion in 2017. Dubai South is gaining prominence, with 550 units slated for completion in 2017 and another 10,000 units announced and in the pipeline. Based on the historic materialisation rate of 35%, we expect actual deliveries to be lower than those announced.
5
7
248
253
200 150 100 50 0
2018F
236
244
2013
2014 2015 Completed
Source: JLL
245
248
2016 2017F Future Supply
2018F
PERFORMANCE Sale prices for both apartments and villas in Dubai show signs of stabilising, with no change recorded during the final quarter of 2016, but transaction volumes remain down. On a Y-o-Y basis, apartment prices recorded a mere 1% decline, while villa prices actually improved marginally by 2%. Meanwhile, rental indices continue to fall for both apartments and villas, with minimal Q-o-Q change (-1% for apartments and -3% for villas), and a larger annual decline of 6% for apartment rents, and 8% for villa rents.
Abu Dhabi reinstated the 5% residential rent cap in mid-December 2016. This comes three years after the rent cap was suspended, and at a time when the average rents in the emirate have fallen by about 5% Y-o-Y, due to job losses and cuts in public expenditure, which continue to suppress demand. The largest decline was observed in villa and apartment sale prices at 11% Y-o-Y, as of Q4 2016. While villa rentals have declined slightly by 4% Y-o-Y, apartment rentals have fallen by 7% Y-o-Y. We are expecting rents to remain under pressure in Abu Dhabi until the return of government spending.
Residential Property Rent and Sale Indices
Dubai Apartment (REIDIN)* Rents
Sales
Dubai Villa (REIDIN)* Rents
Abu Dhabi Villa (JLL)
Abu Dhabi Apartment (JLL)
Sales
Rents
Sales
-1%
-6%
0%
-1%
-3%
-8%
0%
2%
-2%
-7%
-2% -11%
Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y
Q-oQ
Y-o-Y
Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y
Q-oQ
Y-o-Y
Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y
Q-oQ
*REIDIN data as of Nov 2016 COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2017
Y-o-Y
Rents
Sales
0%
-4%
-4% -11%
Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y
Q-oQ
Y-o-Y
Retail Market Summary SUPPLY In Abu Dhabi, no major completions occurred throughout 2016, with total stock remaining at about 2.6 million sq m. Approximately 85,000 sq m of retail space is scheduled for completion in 2017, mostly within residential communities or towers.
Dubai Retail Supply (2013–2018F)
Abu Dhabi Retail Supply (2013–2018F)
4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500
3,000
367 350
2,899
2,955
2013
2014 2015 Completed
Source: JLL
3,180
3,441
3,441
3,791
2016 2017F Future Supply
2018F
GLA (000's) sq m
GLA (000's) sq m
About 260,000 sq m of retail space was completed in Dubai in 2016, the highest volume since 2010. Q4 saw the completion of about 20,000 sq m of retail space in the Dubai Festival City expansion. Other notable completions throughout the year were Phase 2 of The Avenue in City Walk (130,000 sq m), and the Ibn Battuta Mall Phase II (17,000 sq m). Additionally, a total GLA of 84,000 sq m entered the neighborhood and community domain. Given muted market activity and demand, the potential entry of more than 300,000 sq m of additional retail GLA in 2017 poses a risk of over-supply to the market.
382
85
2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
2,194
2,567
2013
2014 2015 Completed
Source: JLL
2,620
2,623
2,623
2,708
2016 2017F Future Supply
2018F
PERFORMANCE Despite a number of retailers reporting a decline of sales during 2016, average retail rents remained unchanged in the primary malls of Dubai and Abu Dhabi Island. Rents in secondary malls in Dubai remained stable on a quarterly basis but increased 9% Y-o-Y as of Q4 2016. The rental increase in secondary malls in Dubai was limited to a small number of centers that saw rental growth over the first half of 2016, with no growth reported in the last quarter. Vacancies increased slightly in Dubai, from 8% in Q4 2015 to 9% in Q4
2016, while remaining stable in the majority of malls in Abu Dhabi, at 2%. As no major malls are scheduled for completion in Abu Dhabi during 2017, rental performance is unlikely to change significantly although retailer sales performance is expected to remain under pressure in the wake of job cuts, government spending cuts and weaker market sentiment. In Dubai, retail rents are expected to remain stable in prime malls, where strong tenant demand remains. However, as retail supply increases across Dubai in 2017, rents in secondary malls will be under pressure.
Retail Rents (% change) Source: JLL
Dubai Dubai CBD Rents Retail Rents
Abu Dhabi Abu Dhabi CBD Rents Retail Rents
(AED per sq m) Primary
(AED per sq m) Secondary
Abu Dhabi Island
Abu Dhabi Off Island
1,946 0%
1,948 0%
0% 0%
9%
1,850 0%
1,760 0%
-5% 0%
0%
Q4 2015 Q-o-Q
Q4 2016 Y-o-Y
Y-o-Y Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y
Q4 2015 Q-o-Q
Q4 2016 Y-o-Y
Y-o-Y Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2017
Hotel Market Summary SUPPLY Dubai’s hotel market witnessed the completion of approximately 7,000 rooms in 2016, bringing the total hotel stock to almost 79,000 keys. Q4 saw the delivery of Jumeirah al Naseem, with 430 rooms, the Premier Inn Ibn Battuta, with 372 rooms, and Nikki Beach Resort with 117 keys. Other major completions in Dubai in 2016 were W Al Habtoor in Al Habtoor City, the Four Seasons DIFC, and the Hilton Garden Inn Dubai at Mall of the Emirates. A potential 14,000 keys could be handed over in 2017, but not all of these are likely to materialise in time. Hotel supply will however continue to increase in the lead up to the Expo 2020.
Abu Dhabi saw the introduction of about 1,000 hotel keys throughout 2016, bringing total hotel supply to 21,400 keys. Q4 saw the completion of 422 rooms in Millennium Bab Al Qasr, opposite the Emirates Palace hotel. Other significant completions in 2016 were the Four Seasons, with 190 rooms and 125 serviced apartments, the Marriott Downtown, with 315 rooms, and the Marriott Executive apartments Downtown, with 64 units. About 2,000 hotel keys are expected to be handed over in 2017.
Dubai Hotel Supply (2013–2018F)
Abu Dhabi Hotel Supply (2013–2018F)
120,000 100,000 13,900
KEYS
KEYS
80,000
15,000
60,000 40,000 20,000 0
60,800
64,400
2013
2014 2015 Completed
Source: JLL
72,000
78,600
78,600
92,500
2016 2017F Future Supply
2018F
40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
18,150
19,700
2013
2014 2015 Completed
Source: JLL
20,400
2,000
1,100
21,400
23,400
2016 2017F Future Supply
2018F
21,400
PERFORMANCE YT November occupancy rates in Dubai were 77%, flat when compared to the same period last year. ADRs, however, dropped by 10% to USD 190 YT November. Given the continued strength and diverse nature of dmand, the emirate managed to sustain occupancy rates at the mid-70s level, while absorbing significant levels of new supply.
decline in ADRs by 10% to USD 127 YT November. Abu Dhabi’s hospitality sector remains reliant on corporate demand which has been significantly affected by the decline in oil prices, reduced government spending and corporate consolidation. The decline in corporate demand has partly been offset by increased leisure demand, driven by the government’s major initiatives to diversify towards leisure tourism.
In Abu Dhabi, YT November occupancy rates dropped to 71% in 2016 versus 74% during the same period last year. This was coupled with a
Hotel Performance Source: STR Global Source: STR Global
Dubai Dubai Hotel Performance Hotel Performance Occupancy Occupancy (%) (%)
77%
77%
77%
77%
Average Daily Rates Average (USD) Daily Rates (USD)
213
213
191
191
Abu Dhabi Abu Dhabi Hotel Performance Hotel Performance
Occupancy Occupancy (%) (%)
-10% 74% -10% 74%
71%
71%
Average Daily Rates Average (USD) Daily Rates (USD)
141
141
127
127
-10% -10%
YT Nov 2015 YT Nov 2016 YT Nov 2015 YT Nov 2016 Y-o-Y YT Nov 2015 YT Nov 2016 YT Nov 2015 YT Nov 2016 Y-o-Y YT Nov 2015 YT Nov 2016 YT Nov 2015 YT Nov 2016 Y-o-Y YT Nov 2015 YT Nov 2016 YT Nov 2015 YT Nov 2016 Y-o-Y
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2017
UAE Construction Costs Ref
Built Asset
Cost Range AED Low
Cost Range AED Mid
Cost Range AED High
HOTELS (Including FF+E, OS+E; Excluding Parking) 1.1
3 Star Hotel
Per m2
6,000
7,000
8,000
1.2
4 Star Hotel
Per m2
7,500
8,500
9,500
1.3
5 Star Business Hotel
Per m2
10,000
11,500
13,000
1.4
5 Star Hotel (Resort & Destination)
Per m2
11,000
12,500
14,000
RESIDENTIAL VILLAS (Including FF+E, OS+E; Excluding Parking) 2.1
Villa - Low Specification
Per m2
3,000
3,250
3,500
2.2
Villa - Medium Specification
Per m2
3,500
4,000
4,500
2.3
Villa - High Specification
Per m2
4,500
5,000
6,000
2.4
Apartment - Low/Medium Rise - Low Specification
Per m2
3,500
3,900
4,250
2.5
Apartment - Low /Medium Rise - Medium Specification
Per m2
4,000
4,400
4,800
2.6
Apartment - Low/Medium Rise - High Specification
Per m2
5,000
5,500
6,000
2.7
Apartment - High Rise - Low Specification
Per m2
4,500
4,750
5,000
2.8
Apartment - High Rise - Medium Specification
Per m2
5,000
5,600
6,250
2.9
Apartment - High Rise - High Specification
Per m2
5,500
6,500
7,500
COMMERCIAL OFFICES (Shell and Core, Excluding Parking) 3.1
Offices - Low/Medium Rise - Low Specification
Per m2
3,800
4,000
4,300
3.2
Offices - Low /Medium Rise - Medium Specification
Per m2
4,200
4,500
4,800
3.3
Offices - Low/Medium Rise - High Specification
Per m2
4,500
5,250
6,000
3.4
Offices - High Rise - Low Specification
Per m2
4,500
4,750
5,000
3.5
Offices - High Rise - Medium Specification
Per m2
4,800
5,400
6,000
3.6
Offices - High Rise - High Specification
Per m2
6,000
6,600
7,250
CAR PARKING 2.9
Surface Parking
Per m2
200
275
350
2.9
Surface Parking with Shading
Per m2
350
450
550
2.9
Above Grade Parking - Approximate 4 levels
Per m2
2,000
2,750
3,500
2.9
Below Grade Parking - Approximate 3 levels
Per m2
3,000
3,600
4,250
Tender Price Inflation (Estimage Average)
Year
Low
Medium
High
2017
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
2018
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
2019
1.5%
2.5%
3.5%
Exclusions: Professional fees, Contingencies, Inflation, Municipality / Statutory fees, Land Acquisition Costs & Financing, Inflation/ Escalation, External Works, Services/Diversions/Upgrades, incoming infrastructure, roads, landscaping, public realm, Value Added Tax (VAT) Note: Costs/m2 are based on GIA, as per RICS code of measuring practice 6th Edition, all costs assume traditional procurement. COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2017
2017 and Beyond OPPORTUNITIES
RISKS
Growth in the UAE’s entertainment and tourism sector A number of tourist attractions came to completion during 2016 such as the Dubai Parks and Resorts as well as the Dubai Opera, with others under way in Abu Dhabi principally on Yas and Saadiyat Islands which feeds positively into the real estate market. Going forward, we are expecting the completion of Louvre Abu Dhabi, Dubai Safari in 2017 in addition to many more in the pipeline, such as the AED 2.6 billion Six Flags Park which is scheduled for completion in H2 2019, and Sea World on Yas Island by 2022. These should help enhance the UAE’s position as the touristic attraction of choice in the region.
Mergers and acquisitions due to reduced government spending The mergers between NBAD/FGB and Mubadala/IPIC may be followed by others. The reduced oil price (from the highs of 2014/2015) has caused the Abu Dhabi government to act prudently. This has translated to a pause in government capital spending as well as job and budget cuts in the public sector. In Dubai, a number of international companies have been restructuring rather than expanding, which may continue to impact the office sector.
Domestic legislations and reforms In October 2016, Dubai’s Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA) implemented a law whereby all advertisements of property will require a permit. Additionally, in December 2016, the government reinstated the Abu Dhabi 5% rental cap three years after its suspension, and the various new real estate laws which were introduced in 2015. Opportunities in alternative real estate asset classes The education sector is leading the way as an increased number of real estate investors, developers and builders seek to diversify their portfolios. The major attraction of this sector to real estate investors and developers are the strength of demand, the attractive financial returns available and the alignment of this sector with government policies to improve educational standards across the region.
Increased cost of living In Abu Dhabi, the cost of living has increased over 2016, with an annual inflation increase of 2.1% for the first 10 months of the year. As part of the government’s diversification plan, energy subsidies were removed, and a new fee (3% of rent) added as a fixed cost to a household’s utility bill. Further increases likely in 2017 and with VAT being introduced in January 2018. Continued appreciation of the US dollar A strong US dollar has reduced demand from many traditional leisure source markets in 2016. Performance of hotels and retail markets could remain under pressure during 2017 if the USD continues to strengthen in value.
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2017
Definitions & Methodology Future Supply JLL estimates of future supply are updated quarterly, based on physical inspections and discussions with developers. We remain cautious of the ability of some projects to meet their stated completion deadlines, with significant delays in project delivery leading to a low materialisation rate. Interpretation of market positions in the rental clock 6 o’clock indicates a turning point towards rental growth. At this position, we believe the market has reached its lowest point and the next movement in rents is likely to be upwards. 9 o’clock indicates the market has reached the rental growth peak, while rents may continue to increase over coming quarters the market is heading towards a period of rental stabilisation. 12 o’clock indicates a turning point towards a market consolidation / slowdown. At this position, the market has no further rental growth potential left in the current cycle, with the next move likely to be downward. 3 o’clock indicates the market has reached its point of fastest decline. While rents may continue to decline for some time, the rate of decrease is expected to slow as the market moves towards a period of rental stabilisation.
Residential The supply and stock data is based on quarterly surveys of the entire Dubai and Abu Dhabi metropolitan areas. This data excludes labour accommodation and local Emirati housing supply. Completed buildings refer to those handed over for immediate occupation. Future supply is based on projects in the announced and under construction phases. Residential performance data is based on asking prices from a basket of selected developments in Abu Dhabi where as in Dubai it is based on the REIDIN monthly index. REIDIN Dubai Residential Property Price Indices (RPPIs) use monthly sample of offered/asked listing price data as well as data on actual transactions. Office Completed buildings refer to those handed over for immediate occupation. Future supply is based on projects in the announced and under construction phases. Our supply figures exclude government owned and wholly occupied buildings. In Dubai, the Central Business District (CBD) includes DIFC, Downtown, DTCD and Sheikh Zayed Road as far as Interchange 1, but excludes Business Bay. The rents recorded in this report are Average Grade A rents,
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2017
based on JLLestimates of the open-market net rent (excluding service charges) for a new lease in basket of Grade A quality buildings, as at the survey date. Data relates to headline or face rents (exclusive of incentives).
Retail rents represents the open market net rent that could be expected for a notional line store on the main trading level in a basket of shopping centres, as at the survey date. These base rents exclude any additional turnover or sales related rentals.
Vacancy rate is based on JLL estimates of all office buildings in Abu Dhabi, while in Dubai it relates to a basket of buildings in the CBD that make up around 80% of the CBD supply and 15% of the total current supply.
Vacancy rates are based on JLL estimates of vacancies in line stores in a basket of super regional malls in Dubai and super regional and regional malls in Abu Dhabi.
Retail Classification of Retail Centres is based upon the ULI definition and based on their GLA: ●● ●● ●● ●● ●●
Super Regional Malls have a GLA of above 90,000 sq m Regional Malls have a GLA of 30,000 – 90,000 sq m Community Malls have a GLA of 10,000 – 30,000 sq m Neighbourhood Malls have a GLA of 3,000 – 10,000 sq m Convenience Malls have a GLA of less than 3,000 sq m
Hotels Hotel room supply is based on existing supply figures provided by DTCM and ADTCA as well as future hotel development data tracked by JLL Hotels. Room supply includes all graded hotel rooms but excludes serviced apartments. Hotel performance data is based on a monthly survey conducted by STR Global on a sample of international standard midscale and upscale hotels.
Malls are categorized into primary and secondary based on their turnover levels. Primary malls are the best performing malls with highest levels of turnover. Secondary malls are average performing malls with lower levels of turnover.
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2017
Dubai Emaar Square Building 1 Office 403 Sheikh Zayed Road PO Box 214029 Dubai, UAE Tel: +971 4 426 6999 Fax: +971 4 365 3260
Abu Dhabi Abu Dhabi Trade Centre Building 7th Floor, Office No. 3 PO Box 36788 Tourist Club Area, Abu Dhabi, UAE Tel: +971 2 443 7772 Fax: +971 2 443 7762
For questions and inquires about the UAE real estate market, please contact: David Dudley International Director Head of Abu Dhabi Office
[email protected]
Dana Williamson Head of Agency MENA
[email protected]
Andrew Williamson Head of Retail MENA
[email protected]
Marko Vucinic Senior Vice President (Hotels) MEA
[email protected]
Andrew Rotteveel Head of Project & Development Services MENA
[email protected]
Craig Plumb Head of Research MENA
[email protected]
Asma Dakkak Research Manager MENA
[email protected]
Mai Hassan Senior Analyst - Strategic Consulting Abu Dhabi
[email protected]
@JLLMENA
youtube.com/joneslanglasalle
linkedin.com/companies/jones-lang-lasalle
joneslanglasalleblog.com/EMEAResearch
jll-mena.com © 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained in this document is proprietary to Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be used solely for the purposes of evaluating this proposal. All such documentation and information remains the property of Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be kept confidential. Reproduction of any part of this document is authorised only to the extent necessary for its evaluation. It is not to be shown to any third party without the prior written authorisation of Jones Lang LaSalle. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof.