Nat Hazards (2011) 59:1773–1796 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9868-7 ORIGINAL PAPER
Reconstructing coastal flood occurrence combining sea level and media sources: a case study of the Solent, UK since 1935 Amy C. Ruocco • Robert J. Nicholls • Ivan D. Haigh • Matthew P. Wadey
Received: 18 October 2010 / Accepted: 27 May 2011 / Published online: 14 June 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011
Abstract Using newly digitised sea-level data for the ports of Southampton (1935–2005) and Portsmouth (1961–2005) on the south coast of the UK, this study investigates the relationship between the 100 highest sea-level events recorded at the two cities and the incidence of coastal floods in the adjoining Solent region. The main sources of flood data are the daily newspapers The Southern Daily Echo, based in Southampton and The News, based in Portsmouth, supported by a range of local publications and records. The study indicates a strong relationship between the highest measured sea levels and the incidence of coastal floods and highlights the most vulnerable areas to coastal flooding which include parts of Portsmouth, Southampton, Hayling Island, Fareham and Cowes. The most severe flood in the dataset resulted from the storm surge events of 13–17 December 1989 when eight consecutive extreme high waters occurred. The data suggest that while extreme sealevel events are becoming more common, the occurrence of flood events is not increasing. This is attributed to improved flood remediation measures combined with a reduction of storm intensity since the 1980s. However, several recent events of significance were still recorded, particularly 3 November 2005 when Eaststoke on Hayling Island (near Portsmouth) was flooded due to high sea levels combined with energetic swell waves. Keywords Coastal flooding Storm surges Extreme events Solent English Channel UK A. C. Ruocco R. J. Nicholls (&) M. P. Wadey School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK e-mail:
[email protected] A. C. Ruocco e-mail:
[email protected] M. P. Wadey e-mail:
[email protected] I. D. Haigh The School of Environment Systems Engineering and UWA Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, M470, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia e-mail:
[email protected]
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1 Introduction Northern Europe has a long history of severe coastal flooding. A large North Sea storm occurred in November 1570, and it has been suggested that between 100,000 and 400,000 people were drowned (Lamb 1991), although these numbers are highly uncertain. In 1607, coastal floods in the Bristol Channel caused the greatest loss of life from any sudden onset natural catastrophe in the United Kingdom (UK) during the last 500 years (Horsburgh and Horritt 2006; RMS 2007). Between 500 and 2,000 people were drowned in isolated farms and villages on low-lying coastlines around the Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel. During the great storm of 1703, the lowermost street of houses in the village of Brighthelmstone (today’s Brighton) on the south coast of the UK was washed away (RMS 2003). In the twentieth century, the disasters of coastal flooding in northern Europe were brought to the forefront by the severe North Sea storm of 1953 (Rossiter 1954; McRobie et al. 2005). In southeast England, 307 people were killed and 24,000 people fled their homes (Jonkman and Kelman 2005), while 1,835 lives were lost in the Netherlands (Verlaan et al. 2005). These extreme storms and resulting floods, most notably the 1953 event, led to widespread agreement on the necessity of a coordinated response to understanding the risk of future coastal flooding and to provide protection, where possible, against such events (Coles and Tawn 2005). The 1953 event was the driving force for the development of storm surge forecasting services (Heaps 1983), the Delta Plan in the Netherlands (a series of dams, sluices, locks, dikes and storm surge barriers that help to protect 8.5 million inhabitants living below sea level) and the Thames Storm Surge Barrier in London. Without the Thames Barrier and associated defences, London’s continued existence as a capital and a major world city would be precarious (Dawson et al. 2005). In recent decades, there has been growing concern about rising sea levels, as these have the potential, along with possible changes in storminess, to increase the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world (Bindoff et al. 2007; Lowe et al. 2009; Horsburgh and Lowe 2010). Society has become increasingly vulnerable to extreme high sea levels over the past century due to growing coastal populations and increasing coastal urbanisation and these trends continue (Nicholls et al. 2007). The Solent, on the south coast of England, lacks a long-term homogeneous record of coastal flood events, and yet anecdotally coastal floods occur frequently. In this study, we combine recently extended sea-level records at two ports (Southampton and Portsmouth) on the Solent (Fig. 1), with media information from two local newspapers, to reconstruct the occurrence of coastal floods in the Solent since the mid 1930s. The overall aim of the study is to establish a better understanding of coastal flooding in the region. The investigation has three main objectives: 1. To establish how many of the top sea levels measured at Southampton and Portsmouth led to a coastal flood; making inferences as to the relationship between high sea levels and coastal floods; 2. To identify regions in the Solent that have been particularly flood-prone; and 3. To determine whether there have been significant increases in the occurrence of coastal flooding in recent decades. The Solent separates the south coast of England from the Isle of Wight (Fig. 1). The cities of Southampton and Portsmouth have grown together to form the largest urban area in the region, with over one million inhabitants. The coast is an intrinsic part of the area’s character and economy, be it through international shipping, recreational yachting or its naval traditions. Sea-based tourism is also an important source of income for the region
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Fig. 1 The study area
(Fletcher et al. 2007). In 2007, about 24,000 properties in the Solent were considered to be in the tidal floodplain of a 1 in 200 year event, with more than 15,000 of these located in the city of Portsmouth (NFDC 2009). This number is an estimate which excludes the Isle of Wight and does not consider the effect of flood defences. The area of the Solent has become well known internationally because of its complex tides (Pugh 1987). The tidal range in the area increases from about 2 m in Christchurch Bay to 5 m at Selsey Bill. In particular, the area experiences double high waters, which are particularly pronounced during large spring tides. At mid-flood tide, the tide stays constant for about an hour, which is known as the ‘young flood stand’. These tidal features are caused by oscillations in water levels within the English Channel together with shallow water effects (caused mainly by interactions between the M2, M4 and M6 tidal constituents) rather than the long-held view of it being due to the position of the Isle of Wight (Pugh 1987). In the Solent, the amplitudes of the M4 and M6 constituents are relatively large, while the amplitude of M2 is relatively small because of the nearby degenerate amphidromic point in the English Channel. In the Solent, neither the M4 nor M6 is large enough on its own to produce double high waters: rather, it is a combination of several shallowwater harmonic terms, which produce the observed tidal distortions (Pugh 2004). Meteorologically induced storm surges of up to about 1 m occur in the Solent, mainly as a result of low pressure systems that move from the Atlantic eastward over southern England (Haigh et al. 2004). Smaller surges in the region also occur as a result of large North Sea storm surge events, which are transmitted into the English Channel through the Dover Strait (Law 1975). Other than the storms of mid December 1989 (Wells et al. 2001), major flood events in the Solent have been more limited or forgotten over the last 50–60 years [although anecdotal evidence suggests more significant events in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries (West 2010)]. However, recent work has demonstrated that rising sea levels1 are 1
The data of Haigh et al. (2009) suggest that subsidence in the Solent is a minimal effect.
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driving increased occurrence of extreme sea-level events along the south coast of the UK (Haigh et al. 2010). Other key historical trends relevant to flooding are increasing development in flood-prone areas and improving flood defences: these trends could be better quantified. Looking to the future, the national assessment of Evans et al. (2004) predicts some of the largest increases in flood risk in England and Wales could occur in this region over the twenty-first century, emphasising the need for further research, particularly at a regional level. The format of the paper is as follows; Sect. 2 outlines the methodology. The three objectives (detailed above) are then addressed in Sects. 3, 4 and 5, respectively. Conclusions are given in Sect. 6.
2 Methodology The first objective of the study is to determine how many of the top 100 sea levels measured at Southampton and Portsmouth led to a coastal flood event. We define a coastal flood as an event where any part of the land became inundated, contrary to normal conditions. Recent work by Haigh et al. (2009) has established extensive new digital records of sea level at many locations on the south coast of the UK. In particular, this work added a new 71-year record for Southampton (1935–2005),2 and an extended and significantly improved record for Portsmouth over a 45-year period (1961–2005).3 Using these new records, the 100 highest sea-level events at the two ports, within the period of measurements, were identified. Each high sea-level event was required to be separated from the next event by at least 30 h to ensure distinct storm events were identified, rather than double counting of the same event. We choose to focus on the top 100 events at each site as this produced a manageable dataset of events against which to investigate the media record. The top hundred events approximately correspond with the top one per cent (i.e. the 99th percentile) of hourly sea levels at Southampton and Portsmouth, respectively. The dates of the 100 highest sea-level events at both sites served as a chronological base from which to investigate whether historical documentation exists for a concurrent coastal flood event. The principal sources of data on flood events used in this study are as follows: (i) the Southern Daily Echo (The Echo) newspaper, based in Southampton covering Christchurch Bay to Fareham and (ii) The News, based in Portsmouth, covering Fareham to Bognor Regis on the West Sussex coast. In this study, reported flood events were only recorded up to Selsey Bill at the eastern end of the Solent. Both newspapers also cover the Isle of Wight with regional editions. The Echo has a notable focus on Cowes, and The News tends to focus more on Ryde, their nearest neighbours on the Island, respectively. Archives from city libraries, photographs, council records and publications by local historians have also been used to support media accounts. Several limitations should be noted. Reporting of flood events may diminish with distance from Southampton and Portsmouth, and the results are most reliable from Lymington to Emsworth, including Cowes, East Cowes and Ryde on the Isle of Wight (Appendix 2). Newspapers were not printed on Sundays or over public holidays, so floods on these days could be missed. If an event was not particularly damaging, reports could be 2
It is important to note that the sea-level record at Southampton has two missing years (1980–1981) of data and a further 4 years (1956, 1989, 1990, 1997) with at least 50% of the data in that year missing.
3
The Portsmouth sea-level record has no missing years and no year with at least 50% of the data in that year missing.
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reduced to small columns or single photos in regional editions. Nonetheless, the method succeeded in producing sufficient data to create a detailed picture of the Solent coastal flood history. Each date of the 100 highest sea-level events in the Southampton and Portsmouth records was categorised as one of four types based on the media information (Table 1). Those dates falling into Category 1 have been used as the dataset of coastal flood events for objectives two and three (see below). Floods in Category 2 tended to occur at times of known fluvial and inland floods or periods of heavy rainfall, and the tidal influences on flooding could not be confirmed. Events in Category 3 are mostly from the earlier part of the record where only short descriptions were found (i.e. ‘waves battered the coast’ or ‘Great seas were rolling in’; The Echo 18 December 1945), but there is no specific mention of flooding. Events in Category 4 are when no mention of a flood is given in the media around that time. These include eight dates in the top 100 sea levels at Southampton that fall in the years running up to and during the Second World War (i.e. 1936–1945) when weather reports were censored for fear it would be useful to the enemy (Davison et al. 1993). Hence, each of these events falls into Category 4, although it is possible that flooding occurred. Subsequently, the main focus is on the Category 1 events. The second objective of the study is to identify regions in the Solent that have been particularly flood-prone. To illustrate the spatial variations in flood incidence, the Category 1 events have been mapped around the region. The outlines for each town or city have been determined either by visual urban boundaries or by ward boundaries where development is continuous. Further to this, dot density maps have been compiled to illustrate in more detail where floods have occurred. Not all accounts depict the flooded areas precisely, and the level of error is difficult to quantify as it varies from place to place. Small towns with lower severity flood events tend to have less reported information. Inaccuracies have been minimised through the creation of defined geographical areas determined by ‘markers’ in the written reports such as road names, specific buildings or landscape features. A scale of severity has been devised to classify the Category 1 flood events, based on the level of infrastructure damage and its consequential disruption (Table 2). Loss of life is the most serious outcome of a flood, but fortunately, this was never recorded over the study period in the Solent. Damage to property is considered here as the most severe impact as the effects tend to last much longer than the flood and can be costly and traumatic for the people involved. Vulnerability to a severe flood event is related to many location-specific factors such as level of engineered flood defences and the local topography. If a coastal town has few low-lying properties, then in this scale, they are less likely to reach the highest severity level (level 5) than a town with many properties in the coastal floodplain. However, the scale does help to illustrate the most vulnerable locations as well as the variety of events at coastal flooding ‘hotspots’.
Table 1 Event-type categories assigned to each sea-level event at Southampton and Portsmouth based on media sources
Event-type category
Description
1
Definite coastal flood event around high tide
2
Possible flood event, but coastal influence uncertain
3
Extreme weather event recorded, but no flood occurrence recorded
4
No acknowledgment of weather or flood event at all
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1778 Table 2 Severity levels for category 1 flood events
Table 3 Event-Type Categories based on Table 1 for the 100 highest sea-level events at Southampton and Portsmouth
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Severity level
Description
5
Flooding over larger areas. Significant pumping required by emergency services. Generally more than half a day disruption to homeowners and road users. More than 15 properties affected
4
More than 5 properties affected by flooding
3
More than 3 roads affected and/or at least one property affected
2
Some road flooding—usually localised or shallow
1
Flooding in open areas/quay areas—no real structural damage or disruption
Event-type category
Southampton
Portsmouth
1
58
53
2
10
11
3
5
2
4
27
34
The final study objective is to determine whether there have been significant increases in the occurrence of coastal flooding in recent decades in the Solent. As the available sealevel records are on different timescales for Southampton and Portsmouth, a direct comparison between the two sites can be misleading. At Portsmouth, the 100 highest sea levels over 45 years will include some less extreme events than the top 100 over 71 years at Southampton. Hence, for this objective, all pre-1961 events from the Southampton record were removed, comprising 31 events. The same number of events was removed from the lowest 100 top events identified from the Portsmouth record to make the data comparable. The remaining 69 highest sea levels and recorded flood events were then compared by decade. A map, showing the locations where flooding occurred, has also been produced for each decade to illustrate changes through time.
3 High sea levels and coastal floods Despite the drawbacks of using media as a data source, the local press of Southampton and Portsmouth has yielded significant information regarding the relationship between high sea levels and the occurrence of coastal flooding. Of the 100 highest sea-level events identified from the Southampton and Portsmouth records, respectively, there were: 58 and 53 Category 1 events; 10 and 11 Category 2 events; 5 and 2 Category 3 events; and 27 and 34 Category 4 events; as shown in Table 3. The dates of the 100 highest sea levels at both sites and the Category of each event are listed in ‘Appendix 1’. With a few exceptions, all the events occur between October and March. Interestingly, the 100 highest sea levels at both sites are not simply related to the occurrence of a coastal flood, or the severity of the flood, or the number of locations
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affected (Fig. 2). On three occasions, sea levels in the top 20 at Portsmouth produced no reports of flooding, whilst flood events were recorded for several of the lowest top 100 events. The most widespread flood event of the study period occurred on the 14 December 1989. This was the 12th highest sea level measured at Southampton, but only ranked 70th at Portsmouth, despite significant floods being reported in the eastern Solent. However, it was part of an unusual succession of storm events with high sea levels persisting over eight tidal cycles between 13 and 17 December 1989 (Wells et al. 2001). The variability of flood occurrence within the top 100 sea levels warrants further investigation into the influence of other variables, most importantly waves. In general, waves are relatively small in the Solent due to the limited fetch, although bigger waves occur at the eastern and western ends. The largest waves often coincide with surges leading to overtopping, or in more severe cases, damage or breach of defences (e.g. Hinton et al. 2007). Once a breach occurs, the impacts can be catastrophic if there is low lying, developed and/or highly populated land beyond (Muir Wood and Bateman 2005). Many natural features also provide varied protection from the sea. For example, Hurst Spit, at the western end of the Solent, protects neighbouring low-lying land. It was breached due to energetic waves and high sea levels on both 13 February 1979 and 13–17 December 1989,
(b) Portsmouth
4
4
3
3
Category
Category
(a) Southampton
2
1
2
1 1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1
(d) Portsmouth
5
5
4
4
Severity
Severity
(c) Southampton
3
2
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
3
2
1
1 1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Rank
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Rank
Fig. 2 The ranking of the 100 highest sea-level events at Southampton and Portsmouth plotted against: a, b event category; c, d event severity (for category 1 events only), respectively
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after which the spit was rebuilt and strongly reinforced by nourishment in 1996 (Bradbury and Kidd 1998). The 13 February 1979 does not feature in ‘Appendix 1’. The tide gauge was down at Southampton, and the recorded sea levels at Portsmouth were not unusually high. However, it is a well-known energetic swell event in the English Channel that caused widespread flooding, including both at Hurst and Hayling Island (Draper and Bownass 1982). Unfortunately, most of the wave records from the region start in 2003, with limited earlier measurements (Mason et al. 2009). However, multi-decadal simulations of waves have started to be produced by forcing numerical wave models with meteorological forcing from global reanalysis (i.e. NCAR/NCEP or ERA 40) (e.g. Dodet et al. 2010). In future, we hope to use these products together with sea-level data to make a more detailed assessment of the physical factors causing coastal flooding in the region. Other flood mechanisms are apparent such as the interaction between high river flows and high sea levels: as occurred in Lymington on 25 December 1999. However, this mechanism is only an issue in a few locations in the Solent due to limited number and limited size of rivers. Heavy precipitation is also often associated with the conditions that produce extreme sea levels. High sea levels hinder gravity drainage, and hence, this is another potential flood mechanism that can reinforce inundation from seawater. As well as floods due to the top 100 sea levels, other coastal flood events were noted, but not systematically studied. For instance, on 24 October 1966, properties were ‘flooded a foot deep’ in Hythe and ‘homes had several inches of water in’ on Wallington Shore (The Echo 24 October 1966), while on 21 January 1988, ‘many homes flooded’ in Ryde. These and other observations warrant further work into the causes and occurrence of coastal floods when no particularly high sea level was recorded, including the possible role of other variables with waves again being of particular interest.
4 Flood-prone regions The Category 1 events have been mapped to identify areas in the Solent that are most vulnerable to coastal flooding. The locations of the recorded coastal floods are shown in Figs. 3 and 4, covering the western and eastern Solent, respectively. Almost all the recorded floods fall within or a short distance from the tidal flood zone4 or adjacent to the shoreline where wave run-up would be expected. It is clear from Figs. 3 and 4 that the majority of events repeatedly affected the same geographical areas. Forty towns/settlements that had experienced flooding over the study period were identified. The number of recorded category 1 events is shown in Fig. 5 and are listed in ‘Appendix 2’. Over 20 flood events were recorded in each of five regions (Southampton, Hayling Island, Portsmouth City, Cowes and Fareham), and a further seven regions had more than 10 flood events recorded. Southampton and Portsmouth (and to a lesser extent, Havant) have been split into smaller subregions for analysis. By comparison, Hayling Island had by far the most reported floods over the study period (32 flood events). Significantly, most of these events were severe (Severity Levels 3–5; Table 2), flooding people’s homes as opposed to just roads or open areas (Fig. 6). The Sandy Beach Estate in Eastoke proved to be particularly vulnerable with five Severity Level 5 floods prior to 1985. In response to this flooding, in 1985, £4.5 million 4
Land below a sea level that has a 1 in 200 or greater annual probability of occurrence (ignoring the effect of defences).
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Solent tidal floodplain
0
2.5
5
10 Kilometers
Fig. 3 Map of flood events around the Western Solent. One dot represents one reported flood event. This area was specified using geographical markers mentioned in reports such as road names or buildings
(£9.1 million at 2006 prices) was invested in an artificial shingle bank to protect the south eastern coastline (Whitcombe 1996), and this beach remains actively managed to this day to reduce flood and erosion risk (Havant Borough Council 2010). A dramatic reduction in severe events at Eastoke due to these defensive works is evident. However, on 3 November 2005, the Sandy Beach Estate was once again flooded extensively (Severity Level 5). The flood was not a result of weakening defences, but particularly long period (about 18 s) and energetic Atlantic swell waves with a large run-up, combined with a high tide and surge, which repeatedly overtopped the shingle bank defence for several hours (Havant Borough Council 2006). It is reported as damaging around 200 homes (The News 4 November 2005): a subsequent survey by Havant Borough Council identified 17 properties with internal flooding, and 145 properties with flooding within their property boundaries (i.e. gardens/ driveways, etc.) (as already noted, an earlier swell event also caused significant flooding at Hayling in February 1979 (Draper and Bownass 1982), but while water levels were high, it was not a top 100 event in the Solent). After 1985, most floods occurred in the northern part of Hayling (at Northney), where severity is generally lower as there is a lower density of buildings and roads. Flood frequency is recorded as increasing there in the 1980s and 1990s
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Solent tidal floodplain
0
1.5
3
6 Kilometers
Fig. 4 Map of flood events around the Eastern Solent. One dot represents one reported flood event. This area was specified using geographical markers mentioned in reports such as road names or buildings
Fig. 5 Map of the Solent showing the number of category 1 coastal floods reported between 1935 and 2005 in The Echo and 1961–2005 in The News. Adjoining areas are defined by ward boundaries
(Fig. 6). Floods in the nearby settlements of Langstone and Emsworth frequently coincided with flood events at Hayling. As The News is based in Portsmouth, flooding accounts are more detailed there. The most frequent floods have affected the old city (15) and Southsea (14), with an increase in incidence suggested from the 1980s (Fig. 6). Severity has been greatest in the Old City,
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Sea Level (m CD)
5.7 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.5
Level of Severity
Level of Severity
Level of Severity
Level of Severity
Level of Severity
5.7 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.5
Sea Level (m CD)
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5 4 3 2 1 0
5 4 3 2 1 0
5 4 3 2 1 0
5 4 3 2 1 0
5 4 3 2 1 0
1783
100 highest sea levels at Southampton
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
100 highest sea levels at Portsmouth
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Hayling (Eastoke)
1940
1950
Hayling (Northney)
1940
1950
Portsmouth (Old City)
1940
1950
Portsmouth (Southsea)
1940
Gosport
1940
Year Fig. 6 Hundred highest sea levels at Southampton and Portsmouth (relative to chart datum) compared with reported flood events and their severity at Hayling Island (Northney and Eastoke), Portsmouth (Old city and Southsea) and Gosport
where more property is affected, but Eastney and the Eastern Road area have also been vulnerable at high tide. Eastney was hit particularly badly during the high tide of 26 February 1978 when ‘Waves more than 15ft high crashed through sea defences …flooding homes of scores of families on the estate’ (The News 27 February 1978). At Fareham, 22 separate flood events were reported, predominantly affecting roads in a small area around Fareham creek and the River Wallington. However, a significant number
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of homes were flooded during the storm surge events of December 1989 and 13 December 1981, which had fairly dramatic effects in most of the Eastern Solent. Gosport was flooded in several places, and reports from Ryde on the Isle of Wight describe the event as ‘the worst flooding in living memory’ (The Echo 14 December 1981). Another high sea level on 2 February 1983 was particularly damaging on the Isle of Wight. In Cowes, an estimated £60,000 damage (£109,000 2006 prices) was reported (The Echo, 8 July 1983). Shop proprietors in Cowes High Street have commonly been marooned from customers during high tides over the study period, but this event led to a number of businesses closing where costs were unrecoverable. The average cost per property was calculated to be around £1,000 (£1,800 2006 prices) (The Echo 8 July 1983). As previously noted, some of the flood-prone areas have strong fluvial influences. Lymington in the western Solent is at risk from a combination of high sea levels and fluvial flooding. The Lymington River is reported to have overtopped its banks during most of the 14 coastal flooding events reported in The Echo, flooding the quay area and surrounding roads. A particularly severe succession of floods occurred in late 1954 (Fig. 7), flooding houses up to four feet (1.2 m) (The Echo 30 November 1954). The more widespread effects of this event in the eastern Solent are unknown as it predates the Portsmouth record, but The Echo reports deep flooding from Christchurch to Southampton. The most major floods in Lymington occurred in December 1989, and this event spurred on investment in flood defence upgrade during the early 1990s (The Echo, 11 February 1991). Defences were further upgraded in 2007/2008 after the flooding in December 1999, which has already been discussed. Parts of Southampton, alongside the Rivers Itchen and Test, have also been susceptible to flooding. In the early part of the record, it was not unusual for small numbers of properties to be inundated (media coverage suggests this was considered the norm and residents just ‘got on with it’). However, the majority of events were not severe, mainly causing disruption through flooding of roads especially at Weston Shore, Bitterne, Swaythling and around the Docks area. Unlike the city of Portsmouth, no Severity Level 5 events are recorded within the city of Southampton. In Southampton, changes in land use and the expansion of the docks area via reclamation (Colebourn 1984) have probably reduced the occurrence of floods in the city over time. Each of the recorded flooding events was ranked in terms of the total number of locations affected. The top ten events are listed in Table 4. Floods during the storms of 13–17 December 1989 were the most extensive in this study (Fig. 8). There were three consecutive events in the top 100 at both Portsmouth and Southampton on 13 December, 14 December and 17 December 1989 (Appendix 1). Figure 9 shows the regions that experienced flooding during these events and their severity. At Fareham, the River Wallington overflowed and flooded at least nine houses. Water from Fareham creek also flooded homes and businesses in the Quay area. Lymington bore the brunt of the second tide on 17 December 1989 with reports of up to five feet (1.5 m) of water flooding roads and houses around the Quay. On the Isle of Wight, The Echo reported that Cowes town centre ‘disappeared under the waves’ (15 December 1989). East Cowes also suffered deep flooding. Several areas within Portsmouth city boundaries suffered deep flooding, with water seeping into homes (The News 14/12/89). The highest sea level at Southampton on 14 December 1989 was ranked 12th highest, while the highest sea level at Portsmouth on the same date was only the 70th highest on record. However, the eastern Solent still experienced significant flooding. This suggests that the long duration of elevated high waters was an important factor in the severity of the floods in this period.
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Sea Level (m CD)
5.7 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.5
Level of Severity
Level of Severity
Level of Severity
Level of Severity
Level of Severity
5.7 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.5
Sea Level (m CD)
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5 4 3 2 1 0
5 4 3 2 1 0
5 4 3 2 1 0
5 4 3 2 1 0
5 4 3 2 1 0
1785
100 highest sea levels at Southampton
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
100 highest sea levels at Portsmouth
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Fareham
1940
Ryde
1940
Cowes
1940
East Cowes
1940
Lymington
1940
Year Fig. 7 Hundred highest sea levels at Southampton and Portsmouth (relative to chart datum) compared with reported flood events and their severity at Fareham, Ryde, Cowes, East Cowes and Lymington
5 Changes in the occurrence of coastal flooding Haigh et al. (2010) recently showed that there is evidence of a significant increase in extreme sea levels through the twentieth century in the English Channel. Their results demonstrated that the observed increase in extreme high sea levels over this period was primarily a direct result of the rise in relative MSL, rather than any long-term systematic changes in storminess. These findings are consistent with other studies in the English Channel (Arau´jo 2006; Pirazzoli et al. 2006; Arau´jo and Pugh 2008), other regional studies
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Table 4 Top ten events in terms of locations affected, the total sea level measured at each high tide and the rank of that sea level within the top 100 at Southampton and Portsmouth Date of flood
Number of locations affected
Southampton
Portsmouth
Total sea level (m CD)
Rank
Total sea level (m CD)
Rank
14/12/1989
21
5.34
12
5.21
70
10/01/1993
19
5.48
2
5.36
15
20/12/1983
17
5.34
14
5.43
6
13/12/1981
15
*
*
5.42
8
08/12/1954
14
5.38
11
*
*
23/11/1984
14
5.29
20
5.48
3
17/12/1989
14
5.25
33
5.21
71
07/12/1994
12
5.46
3
5.5
1
24/10/1961
11
5.41
7
5.41
9
07/10/1987
10
5.24
34
*
*
CD chart datum * No sea-level data are available for these events; hence, the rank cannot be determined
Fig. 8 Flooding at Lymington on 18 December 1989, at the end of the long sequence of floods in December 1989. Source copyright of the Southern Daily Echo
123
Nat Hazards (2011) 59:1773–1796
1787
Fig. 9 Locations reported as flooding during the storm surge 14–17 December 1989 and the severity of flood impact. See Table 2 for definitions of severity categories
(see Lowe et al. 2010 for a review) and two global assessments (Woodworth and Blackman 2004; Mene´ndez and Woodworth 2010). Although Haigh et al. (2010) found no evidence for any systematic long-term changes in storminess in the English Channel, they did find considerable inter-decadal variability in storm activity, with particularly stormy periods in the late 1950s/early 1960s and the mid 1980s. The important question addressed in this section is: has the increase in extreme sea levels found by Haigh et al. (2010) in the English Channel led to an increase in the occurrence of coastal flooding in the Solent? As noted earlier, other factors also need to be considered, including the number of buildings in flood-prone areas, and the standard of defences. While development has increased, historical data are not well developed. It may be an important factor in locations such as Hayling Island where the population grew significantly during the second half of the twentieth century. While the data are not comprehensive, defences have been improved significantly in a number of locations in the Solent, such as Eaststoke, Hayling Island (Whitcombe 1996), Hurst Spit in the 1990s, Lymington in the 1990s and 2000s and Old Portsmouth in the 2000s. Hence, while it is not universal, significant improvements in flood defences have occurred in the Solent during the period of interest. Table 5 and Fig. 10 show the number of the top 69 highest sea levels at Southampton and Portsmouth since 1961 and the total number of recorded coastal flooding events over this period, per decade. The counts for the 1960s and 2000s are not directly comparable to the other decades as the timescale of the available records is shorter (i.e. 1961–1969 and 2000–2005, respectively). Hence, counts per year have been included to normalise the frequency. The percentage of sea levels leading to a flood has also been calculated. The incidence of high sea levels is quite variable over time, with significant differences between decades. With the exception of the 1960s, which had a particularly high number of the top 69 sea levels [this coincides with a stormy period in the English Channel; see Figure 8a in Haigh et al. (2010)], the trend in the following decades appears to be a gradual
123
1788
Nat Hazards (2011) 59:1773–1796
Table 5 The top 69 sea levels measured at Southampton and Portsmouth 1961–2005 by decade, the number of recorded coastal floods and the percentage of high sea levels resulting in a coastal flood Decade
Southampton events Sea level
Portsmouth events Coastal flood
Sea level
Coastal flood
Total
Per year
Total
Per year
Per sea-level event (%)
Total
Per year
Total
Per year
Per sea-level event (%)
1960s
21
2.33
16
1.77
76
13
1.44
10
1.11
77
1970s
9
0.9
6
0.6
67
8
0.8
6
0.6
75
1980s
11
1.1
10
1
91
11
1.1
7
0.7
64
1990s
17
1.7
10
1
69
20
2
13
1.3
65
2000s
11
1.83
3
0.5
27
17
2.83
4
0.66
Total
69
65
69
45
40
24 58
increase of high sea levels per year, broadly consistent with Haigh et al. (2010). However, flood events per year and per high sea-level event are more variable, and over the period declined as a percentage of high sea levels. This is partly attributed to the improving flood defences over time discussed above. Figure 11 shows the number of floods per decade, recorded for each of the identified 40 regions that experienced flooding. During the 1950s, data from the News were not yet included, so no floods east of Fareham can be identified. The Echo reported 10 coastal floods associated with high sea levels, with more floods at Lymington than any other decade. Other noted flood hotspots in the 1950s were Hythe and Southampton, where floods were mainly recorded around the River Itchen and the Weston Shore (Fig. 11a). The flood that occurred on 8 December 1954 was far-reaching enough to fall into the top ten events in terms of locations affected (Table 4), despite pre-dating the Portsmouth record, suggesting a particularly large event. In the 1960s, Hayling Island east of Portsmouth emerges as a flood hotspot with the addition of data from the Portsmouth-focused News, but the greatest number of events is still noted on the Southampton side of the Solent at Hythe and Cowes (Fig. 11b). Ryde, Fareham and Emsworth also emerge as frequent flood spots, and this continues over the whole time period studied. During the 1970s, the lowest number of top 100 sea levels occurred and consequently less flood events are reported, although the proportion of high sea levels leading to floods is still comparable to other decades (Table 5). Despite less reported floods, quite a large number of locations were affected in the 1970s with Hayling, Cowes and Ryde still experiencing frequent inundation (Fig. 11c). The 1980s did not have the highest number of recorded flood events, but many were severe, affecting a greater number of locations than previously (Fig. 11d). The wellrecounted floods of December 1989 stand out in the media coverage, with floods reported at 21 locations across the Solent (Table 4). The severity of these floods tends to overshadow the fact that several other big floods also occurred in the 1980s, with an additional four events affecting more than ten locations. The greatest number of events was again recorded at Hayling Island (Fig. 11d), but a significant number of floods were recorded at many locations across the study area. The 1990s saw a reduction in flood frequency at most locations. The severe consequences of floods in the 1980s were the catalyst for a number of coastal defence projects,
123
Nat Hazards (2011) 59:1773–1796 3
3
(a)
Sea levels Coastal floods
2 1.5 1 0.5
100
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
1.5 1
(c)
60
40
20
1960s
0
2000s
80
0
2
0.5
% of sea levels leading to flood
% of sea levels leading to flood
0
(b)
2.5
Number (per year)
2.5
Number (per year)
1789
1970s
1980s
Decade
1990s
2000s
100
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
1980s
1990s
2000s
(d)
80
60
40
20
0
1960s
1970s
Decade
Fig. 10 a, b the average number of the 69 highest sea levels and the average number of recorded coastal floods per year in that decade; c, d; the percentage of 100 highest sea levels leading to flood in that decade; for Southampton and Portsmouth, respectively
as already discussed, and these had a significant effect on the occurrence of floods (The Echo, 11 December 1991; 10 January 1992; 26 February 1999). However, the low-lying areas in the Portsmouth region clearly remained susceptible (Fig. 11e). Five or six floods were reported at Fareham, Gosport, Portsmouth, Hayling and Emsworth, although these were generally in areas with a low density of threatened dwellings and therefore less of a priority for flood protection. Data for 2000–2005 are not directly comparable due to the shorter timescale, but there is a significant drop in locations with reported flood events despite an increase in the number of high sea levels per year (Table 5). The percentage of flood events following a high sea level has also notably reduced. The main event of note was the energetic swell on 3 November 2005, which was particularly damaging to South Hayling, despite significant investment in defences (Havant Borough Council 2006). All of the top ten flood events, in terms of number of locations flooded (Table 4), were also severe, affecting great numbers of people, through damage of homes, businesses or transport. These events are more frequent in the later part of the record, with six in the 1980s and two in the 1990s (Table 5). In the 1980s, damaging flood events appear more prevalent than at any other time in the record, which coincides with a stormy period in the English Channel (see Figure 8a in Haigh et al. 2010).
123
1790
Nat Hazards (2011) 59:1773–1796
Fig. 11 Flood events recorded in The Southern Daily Echo and The News in a 1950s, b 1960s, c 1970s, d 1980s, e 1990s, f 2000s
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Nat Hazards (2011) 59:1773–1796
1791
An increase in the number of reported flood events over time is noted in the less developed areas of Gosport and northern parts of Hayling Island, where flood defences have not been improved, but trends at most locations are less easy to interpret. Improved drainage, pumping systems and defensive structures along with better warning systems have undoubtedly had an influence on flood occurrence and impact (e.g. Whitcombe 1996). The decline in storminess since the late 1980s, reported in Haigh et al. (2010), may also be an important control on coastal flooding, and a return to the 1980s levels of storminess may trigger more frequent floods. The threat of flooding certainly continues as demonstrated by the overtopping of the artificial shingle bank at Hayling in November 2005 and more recently, extensive flooding on the Isle of Wight on 10 March 2008 during a high tide (Pearce 2008), which post-dates the record used here. At 5.60 m above Chart Datum, it was one of the highest sea levels ever recorded at Southampton (Solentpedia 2009; Haigh et al. 2011).
6 Conclusions Using newly digitised sea-level data for the ports of Southampton (1935–2005) and Portsmouth (1961–2005) on the south coast of the UK, the dates of the 100 highest sea levels have been used to extract information from two local newspapers to examine the incidence and location of coastal floods in the Solent region. Coastal flood events in the Solent have been common over the last 70 years and are often associated with the highest sea levels. A significant number of events with severe impacts have been identified with repeated damage and disruption at certain locations. The most noteworthy event was the floods of 13–17 December 1989 with a number of major events in the 1980s and early 1990s. Unlike the east and west coasts, no loss of human life is recorded as a direct result of flooding. While the occurrence of extreme sea levels has increased since the 1970s, the occurrence of damaging floods has remained roughly constant over time, and fewer areas have been affected by flooding. This is mainly attributed to new and improved coastal defences at key flooding ‘hotspots’, such as Eastoke and Hayling, but the general decline in storm intensity since the 1980s may also be important. However, the significant impacts of the November 2005 flood at Hayling, despite millions of pounds of investment in defences, and the more recent flooding on the Isle of Wight in March 2008, illustrate the continuing coastal flood problems in this region. This demonstrates an ongoing need for preparedness for coastal flooding, together with improving flood defence and management in the region. More generally, this analysis shows the difficulty in linking rising sea levels to impacts, because multiple drivers are driving changes in the Solent and elsewhere (cf. Nicholls et al. 2007, 2009). Further analysis could be conducted in the region, such as (1) assessing coastal floods outside the top 100 events, (2) better sampling the Solent’s media sources, such as newspapers in Lymington, Chichester and the Isle of Wight, (3) exploring other flood mechanisms such as waves and (4) better quantification of the development driver and defence trends. More generally, the method adopted here has proved successful and insightful and could be applied elsewhere where sea level and documentary sources can be easily combined. Acknowledgments We would like to acknowledge support of J. Gale of the Southern Daily Echo and also thank Kathleen McInnes and a anonymous reviewer for their useful comments.
Appendix 1: Dates of 100 highest sea-level events See Table 6.
123
123
1
2
08/12/54 (1:5)
19/12/45 (1:3)
15/10/66 (1:2)
26/03/67 (3)
03/11/67 (4)
11/11/54 (1:3)
07/10/01 (2)
10/12/58 (4)
07/02/43 (4)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
27/04/02 (3)
17/10/59 (1:3)
27/11/39 (4)
12/01/62 (1:3)
26/02/78 (1:5)
04/03/98 (1:1)
03/02/50 (1:3)
21/12/68 (1:5)
14/12/89 (1:5)
10/01/93 (1:5)
03/07/00 (4)
09/09/98 (1:3)
28/01/75 (1:4)
26/12/99 (1:4)
29/01/02 (1:2)
13/10/81 (4)
17/12/89 (1:5)
26/09/84 (1:1)
13/01/74 (2)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
23/12/95 (1:3)
21/01/80 (1:4)
28/03/87 (2)
29/10/96 (4)
19/10/01 (4)
03/11/63 (1:3)
28/10/96 (1:3)
22/12/95 (2)
01/07/00 (4)
04/07/00 (2)
14/01/98 (1:5)
24/11/95 (2:3)
17/05/00 (4)
01/02/02 (1:2)
04/11/63 (1:3)
08/04/85 (1:3)
10/03/01 (1:2)
25/10/61 (1:3)
25/12/99 (1:5)
23/11/84 (1:4)
31/01/75 (4)
03/12/59 (1:3)
04/10/67 (1:3)
31/12/59 (4)
13/12/89 (1:3)
26/11/92 (2)
17/12/89 (1:5)
19/01/95 (1:3)
28/12/51 (1:5)
07/12/94 (1:3)
3
26/02/02 (4)
29/01/79 (4)
16/10/82 (1:3)
24/11/99 (4)
11/02/74 (1:5)
23/11/99 (4)
03/01/91 (4)
04/03/98 (1:1)
02/11/67 (1:5)
11/01/93 (1:4)
15/11/78 (1:2)
21/11/60 (4)
30/10/00 (2)
23/10/49 (1:4)
29/01/02 (1:2)
17/09/35 (1:3)
07/10/87 (1:5)
09/11/69 (1:2)
20/12/83 (1:5)
25/12/99 (1:5)
4
27/10/04 (3)
06/05/85 (4)
24/10/84 (1:3)
13/03/01 (4)
25/10/80 (1:1)
12/01/74 (1:5)
12/03/01 (1:2)
04/06/00 (4)
10/01/93 (1:5)
19/01/95 (1:3)
20/01/03 (4)
04/11/63 (1:3)
26/02/94 (4)
18/12/45 (3)
01/02/02 (1:2)
10/02/74 (1:4)
13/12/00 (2)
20/12/68 (1:3)
11/01/93 (1:4)
02/11/67 (1:5)
5
12/01/62 (1:3)
27/03/67 (3)
03/12/94 (2)
17/03/68 (4)
28/04/02 (4)
11/01/78 (1:2)
10/12/65 (2:1)
01/01/94 (2)
24/10/99 (1:3)
20/12/83 (1:5)
31/01/83 (4)
08/03/54 (4)
22/12/95 (2)
11/01/70 (4)
28/02/98 (4)
10/01/62 (1:3)
28/03/67 (4)
08/08/48 (3:2)
26/11/54 (1:5)
08/04/85 (1:3)
6
04/04/62 (4)
21/11/72 (4)
01/02/95 (2)
20/12/68 (1:3)
03/11/05 (1:5)
30/06/00 (4)
23/10/76 (1:1)
04/01/98 (1:4)
05/07/00 (2)
21/12/68 (1:5)
13/01/93 (1:3)
11/11/50 (4)
17/10/01 (4)
24/10/84 (1:3)
24/12/95 (1:2)
01/11/63 (1:2)
30/08/92 (4)
11/02/74 (1:5)
24/03/55 (1:2)
24/10/61 (1:5)
7
01/11/63 (1:1)
14/11/97 (4)
28/02/02 (4)
12/11/69 (1:3)
17/09/89 (4)
18/10/01 (4)
24/10/80 (4)
05/10/67 (4)
27/11/99 (4)
13/12/81 (1:5)
09/03/39 (4)
16/10/66 (1:3)
30/11/54 (1:5)
01/04/94 (4)
12/01/74 (1:5)
08/02/66 (4)
03/11/05 (1:5)
02/01/03 (2)
04/11/67 (1:2)
06/02/50 (1:1)
8
The first number in brackets lists the event category. If the event is category 1, the second number lists the event severity at the regional scale
07/12/94 (1:3)
0
(b) Portsmouth between 1961 and 2005
26/12/99 (1:4)
0
(a) Southampton between 1935 and 2005
Rank
Table 6 Dates of the 100 highest sea-level events at (a) Southampton between 1935 and 2005 (b) Portsmouth between 1961 and 2005
17/11/82 (4)
08/02/66 (4)
30/01/75 (4)
13/11/82 (4)
26/10/99 (4)
19/12/83 (1:2)
24/11/84 (1:5)
04/11/67 (1:2)
02/06/00 (4)
24/10/61 (1:5)
20/02/69 (4)
19/12/83 (1:2)
23/03/55 (3)
26/10/49 (2:2)
10/12/77 (2)
30/03/98 (4)
10/03/01 (1:2)
02/11/63 (1:3)
23/12/95 (1:3)
03/11/40 (4)
9
13/12/89 (1:3)
09/11/69 (1:2)
07/04/85 (1:3)
14/12/89 (1:5)
31/01/75 (4)
02/02/79 (4)
02/01/03 (2)
17/01/69 (1:4)
04/12/94 (1:3)
26/02/78 (1:5)
25/03/36 (4)
11/01/78 (1:2)
30/12/55 (2:2)
01/11/40 (4)
19/11/37 (4)
02/02/83 (1:5)
16/01/38 (4)
22/02/66 (2:1)
23/11/84 (1:4)
17/01/69 (1:4)
10
1792 Nat Hazards (2011) 59:1773–1796
Nat Hazards (2011) 59:1773–1796
1793
Appendix 2: Recorded category 1 floods by location See Table 7.
Table 7 Number of floods per location
Location
City/town subarea
Southampton city areaa
Number of floods 34
Weston Shore Road/Lane
12
Woodmill Lane
8
Stoneham Lane
6
Bitterne Road
4
Millbrook Road
4
Portswood Road
4
Terminus Terrace
4
Belgrave Road/Kent Road
3
Quay area
3
Empress Road
2
Mansbridge
1
McNaughten Road
1
Nursling
1
Dukes Road Hayling Island
1 32
Portsmouth City areaa
29 Old City
15
Southsea
14
Eastern Road
7
Eastney
5
Farlington
4
Hillsea
4
Cosham
1
Drayton Cowes
1 23
Fareham
22
Havanta
18 Langstone Other areas
16 5
Ryde (inc. Seaview)
18
Emsworth
17
Hythe
16
Lymington
14
Gosport
13
East Cowes
11
Selseyb
8
Totton
8
123
1794 Table 7 continued
a
Subareas of Portsmouth, Southampton and Havant are often flooded concurrently. Therefore, the total for these city/ town areas does not equal the sum of floods in the separate subareas
b
Sites where floods may be underestimated in the media sources used
Nat Hazards (2011) 59:1773–1796
Location
City/town subarea
Number of floods
Hamble
7
Keyhavenb
7
Warsash
7
Netley
6
Newportb
6
Beaulieu
5
Lee-on-Solent
5
Milford-on-seab
5
Portchester
5
Eling
4
Gurnardb
4
Seaviewb
4
Swanwick
4
Yarmouthb
4
Hill Head
3
Boshamb
2
Botley
2
Calshot
2
Birdhamb
2
Fawley
2
Lepe
2
Sandownb
2
Shanklinb
2
Ventnorb
2
Curbridge
1
Marchwood
1
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