Regional Trade and Growth in Asia and Latin America - Cepal
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Regional Trade and Growth in Asia and Latin America - Cepal
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LC/BRS/R238. November, 2010 Original: English
ECLAC
ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Office in Brazil
Regional Trade and Growth in Asia and Latin America: the importance of Productive Complementarity Renato Baumann
The views expressed in this work are those of the author and do not necessary correspond to the official position of the institutions involved
Regional Trade and Growth in Asia and Latin A merica: the importance of Productive Complementarity Renato Baumann
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I – Introduction Latin America faces a peculiar situation. Its rich endowment in natural resources has provided substantive gains stemming from recent boom in the international prices of most commodities. Forecasts for the coming decades are convergent in that this favorable situation is likely to remain, thanks to the perspectives of demand, mainly by Asian emerging economies. As a matter of fact, some Asian countries now rank among the main trade partners for a number of Latin American countries. At the same time that the geography of trade flows has changed substantially, the actual inflow of foreign resources and the perspectives of massive future inflows of resources have put pressure on the real exchange rate of most countries, thus affecting competitiveness of some sectors, manufactures in particular. Furthermore, Latin American producers face an increasing competition of Asian products, both in their domestic markets and in other, traditional export markets. This scenario poses several challenges. The alternative of improving the domestic conditions to maximize the benefits from the exploitation of natural resources is essentially an option for each country individually, and implies a number of macroeconomic issues and political economy aspects. Bigger economies have better chances to pursue such route. An alternative, complementary option is to reinforce regional economic links as a means to increase competitiveness, as observed in Asia. Productive complementarity
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From UN/ECLAC and the World Bank. This work could hardly be done without the support provided by the World Bank. I am grateful to the support received from Otaviano Canuto, Carlos Primo Braga and Sudarshan Gooptu. I am also very grateful, in particular, to Francis Ng, who helped by processing the trade Periods included: 9 Cross-sections included: 15 Total panel (balanced) observations: 135
C TRADE_PG TRADE_OG TINT_P TINT_OG R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
