Reliable Engineering Computing

Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop on

Reliable Engineering Computing Robust Design - Coping with Hazards, Risk and Uncertainty March 3-5, 2010 Singapore

Editors:

Michael Beer Rafi L. Muhanna Robert L. Mullen

This work relates to Department of the Navy Grant N62909-10-1-1015 issued by Office of Naval Research Global. The United States Government has a royalty-free license throughout the world in all copyrightable material contained herein. This workshop is supported by Office of Naval Research Global. The content of the information released through the workshop does not necessarily reflect the position or the policy of the United States Government, and no official endorsement should be inferred.

Contents

Preface

Hi

Organization International

Committee

iv

Scientific Committee

v

Opening Plenary Lecture

^^ШШ

Plenary

vi

Lectures

A G e n e r a l Purpose S o f t w a r e f o r Reliability-Based O p t i m a l D e s i g n M. A. Valdebenito,

3

E. Patelli and G. /. Schueller

Data M i n i n g A p p l i c a t i o n s in t h e A u t o m o t i v e I n d u s t r y

23

R. Kruse, M. Steinbrecher and C. Moewes U.S. N a v y M a n t e c h B2PCOE a n d t h e Lead Free M a n h a t t a n Project

41

R. R. Reilly

^ШШЛ

Award

Paper, CADLM

Prize 2010 — Intelligent

Optimal

Design

Fuzzy A r c h i t e c t u r e o f Safety-Relevant V e h i c l e Systems

57

V. Ivanov and B. Shyrokau

TECHNICAL SESSIONS

H B H

Analysis

of Systems and

Structures

M o d e l Fusion U n d e r Probabilistic a n d Interval U n c e r t a i n t y , w i t h A p p l i c a t i o n t o Earth Sciences

81

0 . Ochoo, A. A. Velasco, C. Sen/in and V. Kreinovich Recursive Least-Squares Estimation in C a s e of I n t e r v a l O b s e r v a t i o n D a t a H. Kutterer and I.

101

Neumann

A Fuzzy Finite E l e m e n t Analysis T e c h n i q u e f o r S t r u c t u r a l Static A n a l y s i s Based o n Interval Fields

117

W. Verhaeghe, M. De Munck, W. Desmet, D. Vandepitte and D. Moens Primary a n d D e r i v e d V a r i a b l e s w i t h t h e S a m e A c c u r a c y in I n t e r v a l Finite Elements M. V. Rama Rao, R. L. Mullen and R. L. Muhanna

Vll

129

A Verified Automatic Contour Integration Algorithm

149

N. Yamanaka, S. Oishi and T. Ogita Vertical Incremental Dynamic Analysis for Assessing Progressive Collapse Resistance and Failure Modes of Structures

159

D. G. Lu, P. Y. Song, S. S. Cui and Z. H. Chen Reliable Dynamic Analysis of an Uncertain Shear Beam

1 73

M. Modares, I. Olabarri and R. L. Mullen Exact Determinant of Integer Matrices

1 86

Г. Ogita Analytical Study of a 4-Span Bridge with Advanced Materials С A. Cruz Noguez, M. S. Saiidi and D. Hillis Finite Element Structural Analysis using Imprecise Probabilities Based on P-Box Representation

197

211

H. Zhang, R. L. Mullen and R. L. Muhanna ШШШ^Ш Robustness of Systems and Structures Robust Assessment of Shear Parameters in Geotechnics

229

W. Fellin and M. Oberguggenberger Robustness Against the Noise in Sensors Network Design for Heritage Structures: The Case Study of the Colosseum

241

G. Monti, G. Quaranta and G. С Marano Optimal Sensor Placement in Environmental Research: Designing a Sensor Network Under Uncertainty

255

A. Jaimes, C. Tweedie, T. Magoc, V. Kreinovich and M. Ceberio Robustness Assessment for Progressive Collapse of Framed Structures Using Pushdown Analysis Method

268

D. G. Lu, S. S. Cui, P. Y. Song and Z. H. Chen Exact 2D Convex Hull for Floating-Point Data

282

K. Ozaki, T. Ogita and S. Oishi O n the Stability and Controlability of Fuzzy Control Set Differential Equation

293

P. D. Nguyen and Q. D. Lam • ^ • H

Reliability Analysis and

Simulation

Estimating the Effect of Manufacturing Variability on Turbine Blade Life

311

N. Thakur, A. J. Keane and P. B. Nair Reliability Analysis Under Integrated Input Variable and Metamodel Uncertainty Based on Bayesian Approach

323

D. An, J. H. Choi and J. Won On Correlation Control in Monte Carlo Type Sampling M. Vofechovsky vin

340

Extension of Sample Size in Latin Hypercube Sampling with Correlated Variables

353

M. Vofechovsky Random Set Finite Element Method Application to Tunnelling

369

A. Nasekhian and H. F. Schweiger Interval Estimates of Structural Reliability

386

H. Zhang, R. L. Mullen and R. L. Muhanna Ш^ШШ

Robust and Reliability-Based

Optimization

Economic Emission Load Dispatch Using Interval Differential Evolution Algorithm

399

A. Gupta and S. Ray Automated Synthesis of Fixed Structure QFT Prefilters Using Interval Constraint Satisfaction Techniques

415

P. S. V. Nataraj and M. M. Deshpande Performance Measures for Robust Design and its Applications

428

T. Kawamura Solving Constrained Optimization Problems via Subset Simulation

439

H. S. Li and S. K. Au

Reliability-Based Design by Adaptive Quantile Estimation

454

J. Ching and W. C. Hsu Discrete Robust Design Optimization of Stochastic Dynamical Systems

473

H. A. Jensen and J. G. Sepulveda Confidence Single-Level Formulation in Structural Robust Optimization and its Solution Aspect

489

X. Guo Towards Optimal Effort Distribution in Process Design Under Uncertainty, with Application to Education

509

O. Koshe/eva and V. Kreinovich Simulation Based Uncertainty Handling with Polyhedral Clouds

526

M. Fuchs

Robust Simulation and Design Using Parametric Interval Methods

536

M. D. Stuber and P. I. Barton Robust Design with Uncertain Data and Response Surface Approximation

554

W. Graf, J. U. Sickert, S. Pannier and M. Kaliske •^^H

Modeling, Prediction and

Identification

Identification and Prediction of Time-Dependent Structural Behavior with Recurrent Neural Networks for Uncertain Data S. Freitag, W. Graf and M. Kaliske IX

577

Predicting the Shear Strength of RC Beams without Stirrups Using Bayesian Neural Network O. Iruansi, M. Guadagnini, K. Pilakoutas and K. Neocleous Bayesian Approach for Fatigue Life Prediction from Field Inspection D. An, J. H. Choi, N. H. Kim and S. Pattabhiraman Damage Factor Estimation of Crane-Hook (A Database Approach with Image, Knowledge and Simulation)

597

614

623

T. Nishimura, T. Muromaki, K. Hanahara, Y. Tada, S. Kuroda and T. Fukui Material Identification of Solder Joint in Microelectronics Package Using Bayesian Approach

637

J. H. Gang, J. H. Choi, D. An and J. W. Joo A Priori Inverse Operator Estimation for Guaranteed Error Estimate A. Takayasu, S. Oishi and T. Kubo

649

A Novel Robust Control Strategy for Interval Plants Using the Two Loop MFC and C D M S. Bhusnur and S. Ray

665

^Ш^Ш

Uncertainty and Risk

Management

Of Reality, Quality and Murphy's Law Strategies for Eliminating Human Error and Mitigating its Effects F. Knoll

687

Assessment of Structural Integrity of Titanium Weldments for US Navy Applications W. Mohr

702

A Novel Risk Definition for Portfolio Selection with Uncertain Returns X. Huang

71 9

Lead Free Manhattan Project Best Practices and Benchmarking Center of Excellence С Meola

728

Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for Fire in Road Tunnels with Parameter Uncertainty Q. Meng and X. Qu

751

Way to Reduce the Uncertainties on Ecological Consequences Assessment of Technological Disasters Using Satellite Observations Y. V. Kostyuchenko, I. Kopachevsky, D. Solovyov, Y. Bilous and V. Gunchenko

765

Transboundary Socio-Economic Safety Assessment: Susta inability toward Anthropogenic Hazards and Bioproductivity Degradation У. V. Kostyuchenko, M. Läszlö, M. Yuschenko, I. Kopachevskyi and Y. Bilous

777

Author Index

797

x