Research Articles

Future Learning 1 (2013) 3-17 DOI: 10.7564/13-FULE12

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Research Articles The Future of Learning 2025: Developing a vision for change Christine Redecker1 and Yves Punie European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain Email: [email protected]; [email protected]

This paper presents key findings from a foresight study on the "Future of Learning", which employed a series of structured stakeholder consultations, in different formats, involving experts, policy makers and teachers, to envisage how and what European citizens will learn in 2020-2030. The overall vision is that personalisation, collaboration and informalisation (informal learning) will be at the core of learning in the future. This article argues, based on a series of online expert consultations, in favour of formal education and training moving towards more personalised learning strategies in multi-cultural environments, stronger integration of external learning opportunities and greater institutional openness. In relation to future careers it foresees increased professional flexibility, flatter hierarchies and open knowledge exchange. In addition, experts emphasize the importance of recognizing informally acquired skills. Research on technologies for learning should contribute to realising these changes and provide evidence, applications and tools to effectively support flexible, targeted and tailor-made learning opportunities. Keywords: future learning, scenarios, foresight, personalization, collaboration, informal learning, lifelong learning, ubiquitous learning.

1. Introduction Across Europe there is a growing awareness that our societies are going through an unprecedented transition, because of the recent economic crisis and associated political challenges, and also persistent long-term trends such as globalization and demographic change. These factors exert enormous pressure not only on Europe's competitiveness and social welfare systems, but also on education and training (Schlotter, Schwerdt, & Wößmann, 2008). As new global competitors with innovation capacity like China and India emerge, it is increasingly challenging for Europe to keep 1

The views expressed in this article are purely those of the authors and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission.

© Baltzer Science Publishers

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C. Redecker and Y. Punie / The Future of Learning 2025

its competitive edge (Hofheinz, 2010; Linton & Schuchhard, 2009; Reflection Group on the Future of the EU 2030, 2010). In an ageing society, which will have almost twice as many workers over the age of 65, the future workforce of Europe needs to be recruited increasingly from the older population. This increases the need for effective lifelong learning programmes (Reflection Group on the Future of the EU 2030, 2010). Furthermore, it is expected that the share of jobs requiring high-level qualifications will rise from 29% in 2010 to about 35% in 2020, while the number of jobs employing those with low qualifications will fall from 20% to 15% (Cedefop, 2010a). Thus, the jobs of tomorrow, whatever they look like, will on the whole require new and higher levels of skills (Cedefop, 2010b). Skills shortages are expected in the future labour markets of Europe. Currently nearly a third of Europe's population aged 25-64 have no or low formal qualifications (European Commission, 2010). However, the people who need training most, i.e. those with low or irrelevant skills, tend to be those who use training the least (Schleicher, 2006). Hence, increasing the educational level of low-skilled workers, who face a substantially higher risk of being unemployed than medium- and highskilled workers, as well as improving the equity of the educational systems, are major challenges for educational policies in the 21st century (EENEE & NESSE, 2008; Hofheinz, 2010). Technologies in general and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) in particular constitute one of the main drivers for changing job structures and requirements, and thus determine which skills people need to acquire (e-skills UK, 2010; Facer & Sandford, 2010; Talwar & Hancock, 2010). Moreover, technology will affect not only what we need to learn, but also how we learn in the future. Foresight studies emphasize the impact of technological change on education and training. According to the European Internet Foundation (Linton & Schuchhard, 2009), for example, the key to adequately preparing learners for life in a digital world is to "redesign education itself around participative, digitally-enabled collaboration within and beyond the individual educational institution". In a similar vein, a study commissioned by the MacArthur Foundation (Davidson & Goldberg, 2009) envisages that, in the future, learning in Education and Training (E&T) institutions will be based on the principles of self-learning, networked learning, connectivity and interactivity and collective credibility. A study by IBM Global Education (IBM Global Education, 2009) identifies five interrelated "signposts" for the future of education, namely: technological immersion; personalized learning paths; knowledge skills for service-based economies; global integration of systems, resources, and cultures; and aligning E&T with economic needs and demands. Similarly, a Delphi study conducted by the Learnovation project (2008) identifies technological progress and social networking online as the two most important factors for changing the ways in which people learn, followed by cuts in public funding for education, globalisation and multiculturalism. In line with these studies, the Beyond Current Horizons project (Facer, 2009; Facer & Sandford, 2010) envisages that, in the future, learning will be characterised by networked learners, networked workers, networked E&T institutions, and information forums promoting public debate. Informal learning strategies will become an integral part of learning and will also (need to) be embedded in E&T. Collins and


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Halverson (2010) argue that, with the advent and increasing impact of technologies, a new era of education – the "lifelong learning era" – is beginning, which differs substantially from the current "schooling era" and to a certain extent reflects a return to the pre-industrial "apprenticeship era". In the "lifelong learning era", learning takes place across a number of different "venues" and involves mixed-age groups in different constellations. To determine how education and training policy can more adequately prepare learners for life in this future society, JRC-IPTS on behalf of DG Education and Culture conducted a foresight study in 2010-11 on “The Future of Learning: New Ways to learn New Skills for Future Jobs” (Redecker et al., 2011). The study, which was conducted in collaboration with TNO and the Open University of the Netherlands, used a series of extensive stakeholder consultations. These had different formats (workshops; online consultations; group concept mapping) and included different stakeholder groups (educational experts and practitioners; teachers; policy makers), as well as a review of studies and foresight activities. The main objectives of the Future of Learning study were (1) to identify, understand and map how learning strategies and trajectories are expected to change, given current trends, thus creating a descriptive vision of the future; and (2) to develop a normative vision of the future, by identifying key challenges and strategies which ensure that future learning opportunities contribute to social cohesion, socio-economic inclusion and economic growth. A foresight methodology was used to achieve these two objectives, which aimed to inform policy making.2 The methodology employed wide stakeholder consultations intended to jointly reinforce and cross-validate one another. The consultations were designed and elaborated on the basis of extensive desk research, including other foresight studies and policy documents. This paper summarizes the findings of one of the core activities of the study, a series of online stakeholder consultations in survey format. After a short overview of the research context and the methodology used (Section 2), this paper presents and discusses the results of the three main online stakeholder consultation rounds, which each involved between 90 and 150 experts and took place from April to June 2010 (Section 3). The paper concludes with a description of the overall vision of future learning as it emerges from this exercise and accompanying research activities (Section 4). 2. Methodology for the online stakeholder consultations The online stakeholder consultations were based on a number of challenges that are expected to have a pronounced effect on the socio-economic future of Europe. These key challenges were identified through desk research, expert consultation and a mapping exercise (cf. Stoyanov, Hoogveld, & Kirschner, 2010). To facilitate the understanding of these issues by experts, stakeholders and policy makers, each challenge was illustrated by a "persona", a stereotypical character, who illustrates the 2

Cf. http://forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/guide/1_why-foresight/functions.htm

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main problem. In total, nine different personas were developed, which address the two key questions for the normative vision development: 1. How can education and training institutions and systems address future learning needs? and 2. How can demand and supply of skills be better matched? Based on the persona descriptions, after an initial phase of experimentation with different consultation formats, a pilot survey was launched, which subsequently led to the design and implementation of three online stakeholder consultations, following a uniform survey approach (cf. Redecker et al., 2010). Each of these three surveys consulted stakeholders on a set of three personas grouped according to a common theme. The surveys provided an introduction in which the personas were described to illustrate each problem context. Respondents were then asked to rate a number of statements on a 1 to 5 Likert scale, ranging from “strongly disagree” to “strongly agree. Participation in the online stakeholder consultation was not restricted. Invitations to participate were sent out to all members of the previously formed “Future of Learning” groups on LinkedIn3 and Facebook.4 These experts were encouraged to widely distribute the invitation to others who might be interested in the research. Furthermore, existing networks were used to invite researchers, educators and policy makers all over Europe to take part in the debate. The online consultations took place from April to June 2010. The surveys generated 151, 101 and 94 responses respectively. Respondents ranged from academics, researchers, consultants, practitioners, to educational policymakers and advisors. Most of them had expertise in education and training, pedagogy, technology, foresight and/or innovation. The majority of respondents were from Europe, from at least 15 different European countries. The results were analysed using standard descriptive statistics, assessing the percentage of responses on each scale. In the analysis, special attention has been paid to statements that received considerable variation. While the survey results are not, for obvious reasons, representative of expert opinion in Europe, the feedback and input received does provide valuable insights into future trends and challenges and the strategies that can enable education and training to more adequately respond to these.

3 4

http://www.linkedin.com/groups?mostPopular=&gid=2266966. http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=176371588344.

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3. Key findings of the online stakeholder consultations5

3.1. Future classrooms: Towards more personalised learning in multicultural environments and towards stronger integration and use of external learning opportunities 0%

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In 2025, existing structures of formal education and training have remained intact.

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Schools will have disappeared altogether and be replaced by learning opportunities that are integrated in life and society. In 2025, educational institutions will be replaced by community knowledge centers [...].

12%

28%

21%

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By 2025, schools will have implemented personalised learning plans 0%5% that take into account individual needs, interests and preferences. By 2025, global changes, like the dominance of Asia, will have been 5% recognised by education and training [...]. In the future multicultural classrooms will have become the norm, thus 3% 7% requiring new strategies for teaching and learning in such settings. Cultural awareness and inter-cultural communication will become an 0% 4% important subject in school education.

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not inclined either way

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[...] By 2025 companies train their own staff and select graduates on 2% 11% the basis of their basic skills [...].

11% 3% 97

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In the Future, [...] it is normal that people will need to supplement their 0% 2% 11% official qualifications [...] with extra on the job training.

disagree

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By 2025, it has become normal for schools to provide support and 0%6% training for pupils with insufficient language skills.

strongly disagree

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By 2025, standardised degrees and testing procedures will have disappeared. In the future, students will not be enrolled at a single school, but combine courses and resources from different educational institutions and decide [...] which local and virtual learning communities to join.

25%

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strongly agree

Figure 1. The future of formal Education and Training.

Contrary to the more radical re-thinking of the role of learning in society in a previous IPTS foresight (Miller, Shapiro, & Hilding-Hamann, 2008), the experts who participated in the online consultations think that the existing, physical and formal structures of school education will remain more or less intact. Only 14% of experts believe that, by 2025, schools will have disappeared altogether to be replaced by learning opportunities that are integrated in life and society; 72% oppose this 5

More detailed results and complete persona descriptions can be found in Redecker, Leis, Leedertse, Gijsbers, et al., 2010.

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statement, and almost half even strongly disagree. Similarly, only few (14%) think that standardised degrees and testing procedures will disappear; the large majority of 62% consider this unlikely. However, there are indications that other forms and places of learning, such as virtual networks or local community centres, will become important. 49% assert that in the future students will not enrol at a single school, but combine courses and resources from different educational institutions and decide themselves which local and virtual learning communities to join (22% are doubtful). 37% believed that educational institutions would be replaced by community knowledge centres, while almost as many (33%) rejected this assumption. Thus, while schools will remain the main provider of learning opportunities for the young generation in 2025, external learning opportunities will become more important and schools may consider integrating learning into the life of the broader community (Figure 1). Furthermore, the experts expect that schools will change significantly with respect to their internal processes and pedagogical strategies. Learning and teaching processes will become more flexible in addressing and implementing individual needs and preferences. The large majority (78%) contend that, by 2025, schools will have implemented personalised learning plans, taking into account individual needs, interests and preferences. Moreover, schools will respond better to societal changes. While the experts are not sure whether formal education and training would be able to accommodate global changes, they do foresee multicultural classrooms becoming the norm in the future. These changes will require new strategies for teaching and learning. Furthermore cultural awareness and inter-cultural communication will become an important subject in school education, as emphasized by 70% of respondents (with only 4% disagreeing), and schools will substantially improve their efforts to accommodate the needs of children from foreign origins, by offering language support. The availability of learning opportunities outside formal E&T will become especially important for the transition to the labour market. Particularly as tertiary education and vocational training is concerned, the experts generally expect that, to qualify for a job, formal qualifications and degrees will need to be complemented by further training as they fear that competences acquired in formal education and training will not match labour market needs. The vast majority of experts (87%) believe that it will become normal for university graduates to supplement their official qualifications in order to qualify for a job. More than half the experts expect that employers will develop their own selection and training strategies in response to the skills mismatch (52%, with 13% disagreeing).

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3.2. Directions for E&T policies: personalisation and institutional openness 0%

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In 2025, many different societal stakeholders [need to] be involved to 4% 7% achieve the transformation [of] formal education.

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Education and training institutions have to implement better 1% 9% monitoring and assessment mechanisms which detect individual 2% learning needs.

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Curricula need to take into account students’ interests. 2%3% 13%

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agree

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Future strategies to fight early school leaving include: Opening up 2%5% 12% educational institutions to society; embedding learning [...] a community; integrated work experiences. [To become inclusive, education] needs [...] strong and principled political leadership [...] [and] greater openness and flexibility amongst 4% 12% 10% educators [...].

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Learning needs to become competence based, rather than 3% 9% knowledge based.

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More attention should be paid to general competences and 3% 13% transversal skills [...].

disagree

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Schools need to cooperate closer with university and enterprises to 0% 2% 14% help students in their career choice.

strongly disagree

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Schools have to increase their efforts to open up to society and 1% 2% 7% integrate real life experiences into their teaching practices.

Future strategies to fight early school leaving include: Personalising 2% 9% school education to better meet individual needs and interests.

40%

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strongly agree

Figure 2. Changes needed in formal Education and Training.

In general, the experts emphasize that formal education and training must become reintegrated into society by better aligning learning objectives with societal reality and labour market requirements. They largely agree that schools and universities need to open up to society and increase their collaboration efforts to close the gap between competences taught at school and competences needed for participation in society. 84% argue that schools need to cooperate more closely with universities and enterprises to help students in their career choices. 90% of respondents assert that schools should increase their efforts to open up to society and integrate real life experiences into their teaching practices. 73% believe that many different societal stakeholders need to be involved to achieve the necessary transformation in formal E&T. As a general strategy for future competences development, two thirds assert that general competences and transversal skills deserve more attention to enable students to become lifelong learners. At the same time, the experts insist that formal education and training must better support individual training needs and preferences. 82% advocate that curricula need to take into account students’ interests; 88% think that education and training institutions have to implement better monitoring and assessment mechanisms which detect

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individual learning needs; and 66% maintain that learning must become competence based, rather than knowledge based (Figure 2). The experts strongly believe that these two strategies – institutional openness and personalised learning – will also contribute to effectively reducing the numbers of early school leavers in the future. While the experts are, on the whole, optimistic as concerns the capacity of school education to respond to societal change, they underline that greater openness and flexibility amongst educators is needed for schools to embrace multiculturalism and accommodate the needs of migrant students. Again, personalised learning strategies and interaction with society are considered the key to improving the educational attainment of migrant children.

3.3. The main role of ICT: Tailor-made learning experiences fostering quality and equity Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) are considered a key tool for addressing future learning needs, as depicted in Figure 3. 85% of the experts believe that technology can facilitate the implementation of personalised learning strategies by allowing schools and educators to create tailor-made learning experiences, which increase learning outcomes. 76% envisage that by 2025, a range of technological tools will be available that help students to design their own learning trajectory, combining face-to-face tuition with online university courses and online learning communities. 0%

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Technology will allow schools and educators to create tailor0% 4% 11% made learning experiences which increase learning outcomes.

A range of technological tools will help [students] to design [their] own learning trajectory, combining face-to-face tuition at school 1%5% with online university courses and online learning communities.

52%

17%

The advantages of technologies need to be better exploited for 0%8% personalising school education.

In 2025 technology will be more important in education then it is today. This will lead to a widening gap between those that have access to educational technology, and those that do not.

8%

strongly disagree

disagree

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In 2025, technological innovations will allow [migrant] children [...] 3% 11% to continue studying their native language and culture, e.g. by attending a virtual classroom [...].

Digital games and virtual worlds will help [migrant children] in the transition phase [...].

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Figure 3. The role of ICT for the future of formal Education and Training.

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However, there is unanimous agreement that, in the future, the advantages of technologies should be better exploited for personalising school education. Technology is also considered an important facilitator for social integration. The experts think that, by 2025, technological innovations will allow migrant children to study their native language and culture in virtual classrooms and that digital games and virtual worlds will be used to train language, cultural and communication strategies. However, the experts warn that the rise of technology may also exacerbate existing inequalities and inequities by widening the gap between those that have access to educational technology, and those that do not.

3.4. Future careers: Increased professional flexibility, flatter hierarchies and open knowledge exchange There is a general consensus that, in the future, it will be common for all citizens –at the beginning or end of their careers, highly skilled or with no relevant qualifications – to continuously update their skills. Due to increased labour market dynamics, people will have to assume responsibility for their qualifications and proactively develop their professional careers. However, in reaction to increased labour market dynamics there will be a variety of opportunities for re-skilling and changing professional profiles. 0%

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% N=

In 2025 an increasing number of today’s jobs will become obsolete and an increasing number of totally new jobs will be 1% 2% 19% created. In 2025, it will be common for citizens to change their professional profiles completely, even repeatedly, over the 4%7% 13% course of their life. In 2025 people will need to become increasingly self3% 16% responsible for their own qualifications.

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By 2025, there will be less employment opportunities for workers with no or low qualifications. Nearly all jobs will require a higher level of skills than today.

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Specialised high-skilled workers may even face more difficulties when their jobs will become obsolete than lowerskilled workers.

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Career changes, re-skilling and longer work-life will flatten the 3% 14% hierarchical differences between juniors and seniors. In the future, seniority and merit will remain the main criteria for promotion, rather than competences and qualifications.

strongly disagree

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agree

Figure 4. Future professional careers.

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While attaining formal qualifications will remain the key to grasping new employment opportunities, informally acquired skills will have to be better recognised and mechanisms put in place that allow people to obtain formal recognition for their professional expertise, by upgrading their skills with adequate and targeted training. The majority of experts (78%) shares the view that, by 2025 an increasing number of today’s jobs will have become obsolete and an increasing number of totally new jobs will have been created; only 3% of experts disagree. A high number of experts (76%) maintain that it will be common for citizens to change their professional profiles completely, even repeatedly, over the course of their lives. Only 11% contest this finding. An even higher share of respondents (87%) believe that, in the future, people will need to become increasingly responsible for their own qualifications; a mere 3% disagree (see Figure 6). The experts have different views concerning the effects of this trend on lowly and highly qualified workers. 38% judge that specialised high-skilled workers may face more difficulties if their jobs become obsolete than lower-skilled workers, whereas 40% contest this statement. 60% think that there may be fewer employment opportunities for workers with no or low qualifications and that nearly all jobs will require a higher level of skills than today, although a significant minority of 19% does not share this assessment. An interesting change foreseen by 87% of the experts is that an open exchange between older and younger people will become more important. Furthermore a slight majority of 57% (with 17% disagreeing) see more frequent career changes, re-skilling and longer working lives as trends that will flatten the hierarchical differences between juniors and seniors. Thus, as a general tendency, the experts expect that professional relationships and career paths will change. Future professional relationships will be characterised by flatter hierarchies, an open exchange between older and younger workers and an open and collaborative approach to training needs. In parallel, privileges and benefits currently associated with seniority and experience will be challenged. Professional careers will become more flexible and dynamic and all citizens, no matter how highly qualified, will need to pro-actively design and promote their careers by seizing relevant training opportunities.

3.5. Training strategies: Recognition of informally acquired skills The experts repeatedly and almost unanimously (with only 6% opposing) underline that, to meet future employment requirements in view of increasing labour market dynamics, informally acquired skills will need to be better recognised and formalised to complement or supplement formally acquired qualifications. Most experts are optimistic that in 10 years' time corresponding changes will have occurred. 56% believe (only 14% disbelieve) that, by 2025, informal learning experiences will have been recognised as a valuable asset for a new job. 60% think that standardised tests will be put in place to obtain recognition for informally acquired skills (only 15% are doubtful). On the whole, there is a strong belief by 75% of experts that, in 2025, there will be abundant training and employment opportunities that will assist people in

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converting professional experiences and personal skills into competences that are relevant for new job profiles. Opinions are divided on whether age affects the chances of re-entering the labour market or qualifying for a new job profile. 33% believe that older workers will find it very difficult to qualify for a job in a new field, while 44% unequivocally reject this supposition (Figure 5). Views also diverge on the usefulness of practical skills training, which two thirds of the experts favour for people re-entering the labour market after a long period out of work, while for re-skilling, experts are less fond of this option (42% in favour; 23% opposed). Also, there is almost unanimous agreement that people with low levels of qualifications should aspire to formally upgrading their qualifications to increase their labour market opportunities. Thus, while attaining formal qualifications remains crucial for grasping new employment opportunities, informally acquired skills will have to become better recognised. Mechanisms must be put in place that allow people to obtain formal recognition for their professional expertise by upgrading their skills with adequate and targeted training. In particular, the experts foresee that ICT will play an important role in facilitating lifelong learning opportunities. The majority of experts believes that, in 15 years' time, a range of sophisticated learning tools and programs will be available, making it easy for people to upgrade their skills and pro-actively drive their professional careers. 0%

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By 2025, [...] informal learning experiences [...] will have been 6% 8% recognised as a valuable asset for a new job [...].

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In 2025 [people] will be able to obtain official recognition of [their] 1% 13% skills by taking a standardised test [...].

For [older workers] it will be very difficult to qualify for a new job [...].

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Figure 5. Future training strategies for employment.

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[People with low qualifications] should aspire to upgrade [their] qualifications to have more employment options [example: part 1%3% 11% time university course].

strongly disagree

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[To re-enter the labour market people should opt for] practical skill 3% 9% training without degrees or qualifications [...].

A range of sophisticated learning tools and programs will make it 2% easy for [people] to [upgrade] their skills [...].

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[To reskill, people will resort to] practical skill training without 4% degrees or qualifications [...].

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Skills and competences obtained in non-formal ways need to be 1%6% 8% better recognised and accepted as formal qualification criteria.

There will be abundant training [...] opportunities that assist [people] in converting experiences and personal skills into competences 1%7% that are relevant for new job profiles.

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3.6. General trends and findings In general, the results of the online stakeholder consultations confirm that major changes to learning and training are expected over the course of the next 10 to 20 years. On the one hand, these changes relate to the increasing ability of formal education and training institutions to integrate personalised learning strategies and to respond more flexibly and dynamically to changing societal needs and labour market needs. On the other hand, increased labour market dynamics will force all citizens to assume responsibility for their qualifications and pro-actively develop their careers. The existing physical and formal structures of formal education and training are expected to remain intact. However, schools and universities will change significantly with respect to pedagogical strategies, by implementing personalised learning and by integrating external resources and practical learning opportunities. Greater institutional openness and collaboration with employers and tertiary/vocational education and training are strategies that can contribute to increasing the relevance and quality of formal education and training. Technology will support personalised learning processes and facilitate inclusion and equity. According to the experts, the current gap between formally acquired skills and competences and labour market needs will not disappear, and may even widen. Moreover, it will be common for all citizens –at the beginning or end of their careers, with high qualifications or only basic skills – to continuously update their skills and to actively and flexibly develop their professional profiles over the course of their lifetimes. In reaction to increased labour market dynamics, there will be a variety of opportunities for re-skilling and changing professional profile. While attaining formal qualifications will remain crucial for grasping new employment opportunities, informally acquired skills will be better recognised and mechanisms will be put in place to allow people to obtain formal recognition for informally acquired competences. It is clear that ICT is a key enabler in realising the expected changes to education and training. Research on technologies for learning plays an important role in providing evidence, applications and tools that effectively support flexible, targeted and tailor-made learning opportunities. Researchers, educators and policy-makers should collaborate on realising the benefits of technology-enhanced learning for society. 4. Overall Vision: Personalisation, Collaboration, Informalisation Reflecting on the findings of the online stakeholder consultations and viewing them in the context of the accompanying research of the "Future of Learning" study, a clearer vision of future learning goals, strategies, and opportunities emerges. This overall vision emphasizes that personalisation, collaboration and informalisation (informal learning) will be at the centre of learning in the future, shaping both the new skills needed in the future and the learning strategies employed to acquire them (Figure 6).

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Demography

Immigration

Globalisation

Technology

Labour Market

Drivers Labour market trends & demands New skills

New ways of learning

Education & Training Learnercentred

Tailormade & targeted Active & constructive Motivating & engaging

Collaboration

Social learning

Peer-learning Sharing & collaborating In communities

Informalisation

Lifewide learning

Anywhere, anytime Blending virtual & real Combining sources/providers

Initiative, resilience Responsibility Risk-taking, creativity

Personal skills

Personalisation

Team-, networking Empathy, compassion Co-constructing

Social skills

Managing, organising Meta-cognitive skills Failing forward

Learning skills

ICT Trends ? Augmented Reality

Data mining

3D virtual worlds

Social networks

?

?

Learning analytics Games

Mobiles

? e-books

Electronic tutors OER

ePortfolios

LMS

Figure 5. Conceptual map of the future of learning.

Demographic change, globalisation, and immigration, together with rapidly changing technological and labour-market trends, will give rise to new skills and demand new ways of learning to adequately and flexibly respond to rapidly changing skill requirements. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) will support the acquisition of these new skills and allow for new ways of learning, by offering personalised and collaborative learning opportunities that are seamlessly integrated into life and work. Due to the increased pace of change across all dimensions of life, new skills are coming to the fore, in particular generic, transversal and cross-cutting skills, which enable citizens to flexibly and pro-actively respond to change and to seize and benefit from lifelong learning opportunities. Problem-solving, reflection, creativity, critical thinking, learning to learn, risk-taking, collaboration, and entrepreneurship are becoming key competences for a successful life in the European society. The recent policy focus on Key Competences (Council of the European Union, 2006), emphasizes that mathematical, verbal, scientific and digital literacy remain key building blocks for successful participation in society. However, according to the experts consulted, it is also increasingly important for citizens to have a better understanding and awareness of the natural and social environment in which they live. This may lead to a new focus on nature and health on the one hand, and on civic competences on the other. With the emergence of lifelong and life-wide learning as the central learning paradigm for the future, it is expected that learning strategies and pedagogical approaches will undergo drastic changes, bringing about new ways of learning. The

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evolution of ICT allows for more learner-centred approaches, making personalised learning and individual mentoring a reality. Teachers should be trained to exploit the available resources and tools to support tailor-made learning pathways and experiences which are motivating and engaging, but also efficient, relevant and challenging. Along with changing pedagogies, assessment strategies and curricula must also change, and, most importantly, traditional E&T institutions – schools and universities, vocational and adult training providers –must reposition themselves in the emerging learning landscape. They should experiment with new formats and strategies for learning and teaching to be able to offer relevant, effective and high quality learning experiences in the future. In particular, they need to respond more flexibly to individual learners' needs and changing labour market requirements. To achieve the goals of personalised, collaborative and informalised learning, holistic changes must be made (including, among others: curricula, pedagogies, assessment, teacher training, leadership) and mechanisms need to be put in place to make flexible and targeted lifelong learning a reality and support the recognition of informally acquired skills. References Cedefop (2010a). Jobs in Europe to become more knowledge- and skills-intensive. Briefing note. Cedefop (2010b). Skills supply and demand in Europe. Medium-term forecast up to 2020. Collins, A. & Halverson, R. (2010). The second educational revolution: Rethinking education in the age of technology. Journal of Computer Assisted Learning, 26(1), 18-27. Council of the European Union (2006). Recommendation of the European Parliament and the Council of 18 December 2006 on key competences for lifelong learning (2006/962/EC). Official Journal of the European Union, L394/10. Davidson, C. N. & Goldberg, D. T. (2009). The Future of Learning Institutions in a Digital Age. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press. Retrieved from http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/ier/publications/2009/beyondcurrenthorizons2009.pdf e-skills UK (2010). Strategic Skills Assessment for the Digital Economy. EENEE & NESSE (2008). European Education and Training Systems in the Second Decennium of the Lisbon Strategy. European Commission (2010). New Skills for New Jobs: Action Now. A report by the Expert Group of New Skills for New Jobs. Facer, K. (2009). Educational, social and technological futures: a report from the Beyond Current Horizons Programme. Retrieved from http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/ier/publications/2009/beyondcurrenthorizons2009.pdf Facer, K. & Sandford, R. (2010). The next 25 years?: Future scenarios and future directions for education and technology. Journal of Computer Assisted Learning, 26(1), 74-93. Hofheinz, P. (2010). Europe 2020: Why Skills are Key for Europe’s Future: Lisbon Council Policy Brief. IBM Global Education (2009). Education for a Smarter Planet: The Future of Learning. Executive Insights. Retrieved from http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/global/files/dk__da_dk__education__the_future_of_learning.pdf Learnovation (2008). Learnovation Foresight Report. Retrieved from http://issuu.com/gfbertini/docs/lifelong_learning_foresight Linton, P. & Schuchhard, P. (2009). The Digital World in 2025. Indicators for European Action: European Internet Foundation (EIF). Miller, R., Shapiro, H. & Hilding-Hamann, K. E. (2008). School's Over: Learning Spaces in Europe in 2020: An Imagining Exercise on the Future of Learning. Joint Research Centre, Institute for


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Prospective Technological Studies, European Commission. JRC Scientific and Technical Reports. Retrieved from http://ftp.jrc.es/EURdoc/JRC47412.pdf Redecker, C., Leis, M., Leendertse, M., Gijsbers, G., Punie, Y., Kirschner, P., et al. (2010). The Future of Learning: New Ways to Learn New Skills for Future Jobs. Results from an online expert consultation. Seville: European Commission - Joint Research Center - Institute for Prospective Technological Studies. Retrieved from http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pub.cfm?id=3659 Redecker, C., Leis, M., Leendertse, M., Punie, Y., Gijsbers, G., Kirschner, P., et al. (2011). The Future of Learning: Preparing for Change. Seville: European Commission - Joint Research Center - Institute for Prospective Technological Studies. Retrieved from http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pub.cfm?id=4719 Reflection Group on the Future of the EU 2030 (2010). Project Europe 2030: Challenges and Opportunities. Schleicher, A. (2006). The economics of knowledge: Why education is key for Europe’s success. OECD J-06-3350 Policy Brief-FIN 3/7/06. Schlotter, M., Schwerdt, G., & Wößmann, L. (2008). The Future of European Education and Training Systems: Key Challenges and Their Implications. EENEE Analytical Report No. 3. Retrieved from http://www.eenee.de/portal/page/portal/EENEEContent/_IMPORT_TELECENTRUM/DOCS/EENEE _AR3.pdf Stoyanov, S., Hoogveld, B., & Kirschner, P. (2010). Mapping Major Changes to Education and Training in 2025. Seville: European Commission - Joint Research Center - Institute for Prospective Technological Studies. Retrieved from http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pub.cfm?id=3419 Talwar, R., & Hancock, T. (2010). The shape of jobs to come. Possible new careers emerging form advances in science and technology (2010-2030). Fastfuture Report. Retrieved from http://www.digesa.unict.it/webadmin/gestione_pagine/documenti/304259539FastFuture_Shapeofjobst ocome_FullReport1.pdf