Research on GIS based Scenario Planning Methods and Applications Qingming Zhan
Jun Zhou
School of Urban Design, Wuhan University, China
School of Urban Design, Wuhan University, China
Research Centre for Digital City, Wuhan University,
Research Centre for Digital City, Wuhan University,
Wuhan, China
Wuhan, China
[email protected]
[email protected]
Abstract—On the concept of scenario planning, this paper
important accordance for the decision support in urban
focuses on the relationships between scenario planning,
development [1]. This may be the way to fully integrate the
MCE-GIS and planning support systems. We integrate the idea
ideas of government authorities, scientific supporting and
of scenario planning and GIS technology, and use actual case
public participation in urban planning.
study to verify the feasibility of this method, in order to support urban planning and urban development.
II
INTRODUCTION OF SCENARIO PLANNING METHOD
Scenario is a description of the future events and a series of Keywords: GIS; scenario planning; planning support system; MCE
facts causing a state of affairs from the initial condition to its future development [2]. The scenario planning or scenario
I
analysis based on scenario is the analysis and construction of
INTRODUCTION
The development of GIS technology went through from the late 80s, early 90s to nowadays. In the field of urban planning in China, GIS technology has been widely applied in variety of practical work, such as computer-aided planning and design, planning control, supporting decision-making etc. Meanwhile, it has made tremendous progress. However, due to the complexity of urban system itself, the uncertainty of the urban development, the rapid development of urbanization in China, as well as the restriction of the GIS technology itself, clearly we can point out that only the use of GIS technology can not grasp the dynamic properties of urban development fully and accurately. In this case, there is required to make the correct and accurate interpretation of the conditions for urban development in an uncertain environment, in order to achieve the multi-objective optimization of development in a city. At the same time, with the development of the society, the
the possible future development, also known as the illustrative scenarios. The scenario analysis is a forecasting method, which describes the future scenarios of system by writing the script, and analyzes the variety of the future situations [3]. Compared with the traditional forecasting methods, scenario planning emphasis more on the possibility, diversity and systematic approach as well as the intelligent characteristics of the objects’ development. Meanwhile, it recognizes the people’s "active role" in future development [4], and provides scientific support
for
further
urban
the
China", more and more people tend to protect their "ownership" rights in urban planning, and give their own opinions or suggestions. Therefore, in the future of city, there will be a number of different development scenarios, shown in Figure 1.
Current
the entire process of urban planning. Inevitably, there is
situation
Planners
necessity for us to exam the potential of the GIS technology, as
of city
Developers
the core of the information technologies, also to translate the
Citizens Figure 1
Scenario 1
Government
government and developers will be all-sided participation in
instructional planning-support information, which provides
With
implementation of the "Town and Country Planning Act of
beneficiary bodies composed of the citizens, planners,
comments and recommendations of each stakeholder into the
development.
Future of city
Scenario 2 Scenario 3 ……
Scenarios of urban development involved multi-agent
978-1-4244-5326-9/10/$26.00 ©2010 IEEE
A
Scenario Planning and Planning Support System
III CASE STUDY
Planning Support System (PSS), first proposed by the American scholar B. Harris, is a system which is composed of various technologies, and provides planning support for the whole process. Not only has it included the
final
decision-making, but the discovery, analysis, and the evaluation of city issues. However, it does not directly make plans. Rather precisely speaking, the planning support system is a set of collection of technologies, ideas and methods servicing for the whole process of urban planning.
Background This research makes the empirical analysis based on the comprehensive planning of the Houguan Lake Ecological District in Wuhan (hereinafter referred to as eco-district). Ecological district is located in Caidian District, Wuhan City, close to Wuhan Economic and technological Development Zone. It has several advantages for development such as good location, transportation and environment. However, the Eco-district, located in the Houguan Lake green wedge as one
Planning support systems has a close relationship with
of six eco-green wedges in the master plan of Wuhan, has
scenario planning. The combination of ideas from planning
tremendous pressure for environmental protection. In this
support system and scenario planning can truly make the
context, the development of the Eco-district is facing the issue
changes from the "Planning for people" to "Planning with
of how to coordinate the use of space.
people", so that the public, government, planners and developers are able to participate in the process of urban planning, providing strong support for the final decision and implementation of the planning program
[5]
. "What-if" is an
example of this kind of planning support system, developed by Professor Klosterman. It makes the integration of scenario planning and GIS technology, providing a good operating environment for decision-making in planning. At present, a number of scholars in China have applied "What-if" in urban comprehensive planning in China [1] [5]. B
Research concepts This research attempts to combine the ideas of scenario planning and GIS technology in order to provide new light on the development of Eco-district. First of all, the factors which affect the development of Eco-district are determined. Secondly, we apply the GIS-MCE method to conduct the suitability evaluation for development. Meanwhile, the evaluation of ecological sensitivity analysis is performed in this area. The development scenarios of this Eco-district are built based on analytic hierarchy process (Figure 2).
Scenario Planning Method and MCE-GIS
MCE, the multi-criteria evaluation, is a widely used method and provides excellent support for multi-objective
Background Analysis Expert Experiences
decision-making. The MCE-GIS solves practical problems
Choose and Analyze Factors
using an evaluation matrix. The construction of the matrix Database
elements requires reflecting the characteristics of the decision-making, which is described by a series of criteria
[6]
.
Suitability Evaluation
Evaluation of Ecological Sensitivity
In the MCE-GIS, firstly, the evaluation factors which influence of urban development have been determined. Then, these
Assign Weight
factors are graded based on different evaluation criterion, and assigned with weights according to the "scene" as required to
Expertise
achieve in planning. Ultimately, comprehensive evaluation of
and Public
the results can be made by the constitution of evaluation
Opinions
Build Scenarios
Evaluate Scenario
matrix integrated by evaluation factors in different grades and weight respectively. The establishment of MCE-GIS, is a
Support Planning Decision
practical application of scenario planning ideas based on GIS technology.
Figure 2 Concept of scenario planning based on GIS
Data processing and results
each impact factor in different situations. Finally, by applying
1) Suitability evaluation First, using MCE-GIS methods in the ARCGIS platform,
the MCE-GIS method, we obtain three development scenarios as shown in Figure 3. Particularly, they can also highlight
the Eco-district is subdivided into grids with 10 meter by 10
obviously and
meter evaluation-units, assuming that the internal properties of
developmental scenario. The areas are classified as most
these
appropriate,
evaluation-units
are
the
same.
Combining
the
comprehensive analysis and the leading factor, applicable to
display intuitively the
more
appropriate,
areas in each
generally
appropriate,
inappropriate and inhibited areas for development.
practice, and considering regional differences are the three principles for further study. According to these principles, this research uses natural factor, social factor and constraints as three major categories of factors to conduct the suitability evaluation for development land in Eco-district. Three major categories have been further divided into 5 factors and 12 sub-factors. Each factor has been made arithmetic assignment according to its ranking. Finally, by the implementation of GIS technology, it works out for each single-factor with the evaluation results of the ecological suitability of development land in this Eco-district. 2) Evaluation of ecological sensitivity To apply the MCE-GIS method to do the ecological sensitivity analysis of Eco-district, the main considerations are topography, water environment and biological environment.
Figure 3 Three development scenarios based on MCE-GIS
These three main factors are followed by five sub-factors. By
Through comparative analysis of obtained results, we find
using these factors, the descriptive information are translated
out: (1) Due to transport, economic, and the ecological impact,
into eco-sensitivity index, assigning 9, 7, 5, 3, and 1
the suitable areas for Eco-district’s development are close to
respectively. Then the sensitivity analysis of Eco-district is
the existing built-up areas, which reflects the Eco-district's
made by implementing in GIS.
own inertia for ecological development; (2) Three scenarios of
3) Scenario planning of Eco-district. In this study, because of the favorable conditions of
development
show
good
consistency
in
space,
only
demonstrate some heterogeneity in some areas affected by
development, such as the geographical location, transport and
dominant factors; (3) On the premise of facing enormous
environment, and considering socio-economic development
pressure
policies, land-use policy, ecological environment protection
development should respect the building of the status quo,
and regional sustainable development requirements, we set up
make full use of existing infrastructure, make development
three possibilities with different development trends, that are
both economically and environmentally sustainable; (4) For
eco-living, eco-tourism and green industry. Specifically
the developmental goals, another need is to be strengthened to
speaking, if trend of ecological development of Eco-district is
protect the ecological environment, avoid overdraft capacity of
set as residential, then which factors have a greater impact on
environment, over-exploitation. It should strictly protect the
that? If you choose tourism as the future development
ecological systems in Eco-district, as well as enhance the
scenario, then which factors play leading roles in it? If the
diversity and stability of ecosystem in order to establish
Eco-district's future development is green industry-based and
eco-virtuous circle.
what are its impact factors then? At the same time, we use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine weights of
of
environmental
protection,
Eco-district’s
On the basis mentioned above, we overlap three kinds of scenarios respectively, and then get a comprehensive scenario
of development of Eco-district as shown in Figure 4. In the
Self-research Program for Doctoral Candidates of Wuhan
comprehensive developmental scenario, there are clear
University in 2008.
regional boundaries for suitability evaluation for development of various types of land. We can clearly see the distribution of the most suitable and the medium suitable land for development, as well as the relationship between them and the built-up areas. This result provides decisive support for the
REFERENCES [1]
[2]
choice of direction for urban development, as well as
[3]
quantitative support in use of space, in order to prepare plan
[4]
for the future development. [5]
[6] [7]
[8]
[9]
[10]
Figure 4 The comprehensive developmental scenario
[11] [12]
IV CONCLUSIONS Based on practical case studies, this paper explores the effective methods for planning support, integrated the idea of scenario planning and GIS technologies, in order to provide support for decision-making and planning. As it should be, although the scenario planning approaches based on GIS technology can not only solve development problems with uncertainties, but also capable of consider the development aspirations of different groups. Become it is vulnerable to be impacted by a number of subjective factors, and the restrictions in the method itself. Therefore, we still need to explore the new integrations of approaches, techniques and theories, as well as to apply them to practical cases, thus to make the city's future development more sustainable. ACKNOWLEDGMENT This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (50778137 and 40871211) and the
[13]
Li Yuan, Zhu Qing, Wang Jingwen, What If-based MCE-GIS Method in Urban Planning Application——A Case Study of Huizhou Concept Planning, Urban Planning International, 2006,21[1],pp89-92. Yue zhen, Lai Maosheng, Research Progress Abroad on Scenario Analysis, Journal of Information, 2006[7], pp 59-61. Zhou Shuo, Study on the redevelopment of Urban Villages, Master Thesis of Wuhan University, 2007, pp 21-22. Luo Shaorong, Zeng Feng, Wei Zongcai, The Application of Scenario Analysis Method in Urban Strategic Planning——A Case Study of Linfen, Urban Problems, 2008(9), pp 29-34. Du Ningrui, Li Yuan, Planning support system (PSS) and its application to decision-making for urban spatial development, Journal of Wuhan University(Engineering), 2005, 38[1], pp 137-142. Xu Feng, A New View of Urban Research: Spatial Planning Decision Support System[J], Shanghai City Development, 2008[4], pp 49-50. Niu Xinyi, Planning Support System: A New Approach for Computer-Aided Planning, Urban Planning Forum, 2006[2], pp 96-101. Niu Xinyi, Effect of the Evolving Urban Planning Theory on Computer-aided Planning in Western Countries and Its Implication, Urban Planning International, 2007, 22[6], P97-101. Zhan Qingming, Deng mulin, Zhou Jun, Pang Qiancong, Xu Tao, Zheng Jinqiao, Planning Supporting Approaches for Spatial Planning in Mountainous Cities: Case Study of Lichuan City, Hubei Province, Proceedings of the 7th China Urban Housing Conference, 2008, pp 327-332. Zhan Qingming, Zhou Jun, Xu Tao, GIS-based Scenario Analysis of Spatial Pattern of Ecological New Area——A Case Study of Caidian in Wuhan, Proceedings of 2009 China Urban Planning Information, 2009, pp 303-306. Wang Rui, Zhou Junqing, Scenario Planning Studies of Urban Planning, Urban Planning International, 2007, 22[2], pp89-92. Niu Xinyi, Song Xiaodong, Gao Xiaoyu,Land Use Scenarios: An Approach for Urban Master Plans Formulation and Evaluation, Urban Planning Forum, 2008[4], pp64-69. Schoemaker, P.J.H. (1995) Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking, Sloan Management Review,Winter, pp25-40.
