Response of Perennial Horticultural Crops to ...

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Response of Perennial Horticultural Crops to Climate Change.

D. Michael Glenn USDA-ARS-Appalachian Fruit Research Station 2217 Wiltshire Road Kearneysville, West Virginia 25430 [email protected]

Soo-Hyung Kim Center for Urban Horticulture School of Environmental and Forest Sciences College of the Environment University of Washington 3501 NE 41st Street Box 354115 Seattle, Washington 98195-4115 [email protected]

Julian Ramirez-Villegas Decision and Policy Analysis (DAPA), International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) Km 17, Recta Cali-Palmira Apartado Aéreo 6713 Cali, Colombia Tel. (+57) (2) 445 01 00 (x3455) [email protected]

 

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Peter Läderach International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) Leader Decision and Policy Analysis (DAPA) for Central America and the Caribbean and CIAT focal point for the Global CGIAR Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) Managua, Nicaragua Tel: ++505 2270 9965 [email protected]

 

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ABSTRACT Perennial horticultural crop production is sensitive to temperature, water availability, solar radiation, air pollution, and CO2. The value of perennial horticultural crops is derived from not only the quantity but also the quality of the harvested product. Perennial crop production is not easily moved as the climatic nature of a region changes due to many socio-economic factors including long re-establishment periods, nearness to processing plants, availability of labor, and accessible markets. Two deciduous temperate fruit crops (apple and grape), two evergreen subtropical crops (citrus and coffee), and two tropical crops (banana/plantain, and cacao) were selected as representative case studies. We evaluated the literature affecting the production of these crops to provide an overview of the potential impacts of climate change. The literature survey identified limiting factors and provide information in assessing future climate change impacts. Although lack of data precludes a comprehensive assessment of CO2 responses and interactions with other abiotic (and biotic) factors for most of the crops analyzed, the response of these crops to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 is evaluated. The CO2 fertilization effect may be amplified and sustained longer for perennial horticultural crops if other resources (e.g., nutrients and water availability) are amply supplied, and if proper management options (e.g., spacing, pruning, thinning) are practiced to facilitate the prolonged CO2 effects. This will likely require maintaining intensive and environmentallysustainable cropping systems. In addition, the positive CO2 effect may be negated by the detrimental effects of extreme temperatures on phenology, carbon sinks, reproductive physiology and changes in the disease/pest complex in the agroecosystem. There is a lack of information on the yield and quality responses of perennial horticultural crops to elevated CO2 and the interaction with warming temperatures. Innovative research, modeling and field trials for low-input cropping systems that integrate existing knowledge to capitalize on the benefits of elevated CO2, while minimizing the input and costs, and temperature stresses is required to improve understanding in these crop species’ responses to climate change and will better address adaptation and mitigation needs in these highly important and complex cropping systems. Keywords: apple, banana, cacao, carbon dioxide, coffee, citrus, disease, grape, insect, ozone, water use, solar radiation

 

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I. INTRODUCTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS EFFECTS ON HORTICULTURAL CROPS II. RESPONSE AND INTERACTIONS OF PERENNIAL HORTICULTURAL CROPS WITH ABIOTIC FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATE CHANGE. A. Elevated CO2 B. Ozone C. Solar Radiation III. CASE STUDIES OF PERENNIAL HORTICULTURAL CROP RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE. A. Apple 1. Europe, South Africa, and Japan 2. United States B. Grapes 1. Europe and Australia 2. United States C. Banana/Plantain 1. Disease 2. Nematodes D. Citrus 1. Tropical Regions 2. United States E. Cocoa 1. Production F. Coffee 1. Production 2. Quality 3. Insects IV. ADAPTATION. A. General Concepts of Climate Change Adaptation B. System-Level Adaptation Strategies in Perennial Cropping Systems 1. Genotypic Adaptation 2. Other Adaptation Strategies 3. Constraints and Trade-Offs Related to Adaptation in Perennial Systems C. Crop-specific adaptation options 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

Apples Grape Bananas and Plantains Citrus Cocoa Coffee

V. FUTURE RESEARCH NEEDS

 

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A. Cultivar Development B. Understanding of Yield And Quality Responses to Climatic Changes C. D. E. F.

Understanding Ecological Interactions in Cropping Systems Understanding Disease and Insect Response to Climate Change Reducing Production Costs Chilling Requirements and Frost Damage in Temperate Crops

 

ABBREVIATIONS NCAR

National Center for Atmospheric Research, United States

CCSM

NCAR’s Community Climate System Model

CCSM3

NCAR’s Community Climate System Model version 3

CCCMA

Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis

CGCM3

CCCMA’s Coupled Global Climate Model version 3

GCM

Global Climate Model, also referred to as Global Circulation Model

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

SRES

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

SRES-A2

One of the SRES scenarios used in the IPCC fourth assessment report. This scenario describes a very heterogeneous world with continuously increasing global population and regionally oriented economic growth that is more fragmented and slower than in other storylines.

SRES-A1B

One of the SRES scenarios used in the IPCC fourth assessment report. This scenario describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.

SRES-B1

One of the SRES scenarios used in the IPCC fourth assessment report. This scenario describes a mitigation-oriented world, with lower population growth and globalized adoption of energy- and carbon-efficient technologies. In this scenario, emissions increase at a far lower rate than SRES-A2, and peak in 2050s

 

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I. INTRODUCTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS EFFECTS ON HORTICULTURAL CROPS Climate change brings both challenges and opportunities to agriculture for sustaining food and energy supplies while protecting and maintaining the environment and natural resources essential for global food production. Perennial fruit crops such as apple, banana, grape and citrus are important components of human diet providing fiber, vitamins, anti-oxidants, and nutrients such as manganese and calcium that can improve human health but are often limited in cereals and other major food crops. Perennial horticultural crops are also high value agricultural commodities that are important for the local as well as the global economy. For example, coffee, grape, banana, and apple were ranked among the top 20 agricultural value commodities that included row crops and animal products in terms of their production value worldwide in 2010 (FAO 2012). Perennial horticultural crops occupy a unique and important agricultural niche as they provide important health benefits, serve as income sources, especially in subsistence and smallholder farms (e.g. banana and plantain in Sub-Saharan Africa), and deliver additional benefits in agro-ecosystems such as carbon sequestration, erosion protection, biodiversity, and water retention. In addition, perennial crops have a long lead-time for adaptation. Thus, adaptation strategies, particularly those involving substantial transformation, must be planned and implemented in a rational manner. For these reasons, it is imperative to understand the responses of these crops to changes in climates and the implications of these responses to overall agro-ecosystem responses. Like all other crops, perennial horticultural crops are sensitive to temperature, water availability, solar radiation, air pollution, and CO2. Increased atmospheric CO2 generally increases growth rate and yield, resulting in a higher accumulation of biomass, fruit production and quality in both temperate and tropical fruit trees (Kimball et al., 2007; Centritto et al. 1999a,b; Idso and Kimball 1997). Nevertheless, two main characteristics make perennial systems unique in nature: (1) the value of perennial horticultural crops is derived from not only the quantity but also the quality of the harvested product (e.g. the size of a peach, the red blush on an apple, the color of banana, and the oils and aromatics in grapes, coffee, and cocoa); and (2) in contrast to annual agronomic crops, perennial crop production is not easily moved as the climatic nature of a region changes due to many socio-economic factors including: long reestablishment periods, nearness to processing plants, availability of labor, and accessible markets. Climate change further complicates perennial crop production.

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Rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases have proven to substantially impact the dynamics of the earth system by increasing radiative forcing (IPCC 2007). According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), these changes will cause increasing temperatures, thus causing alterations to the whole hydrological cycle (IPCC, 2007; Gosling and Arnell 2011; Joshi et al. 2011) and also altering seasonal and inter-annual rainfall patterns (Foster and Rahmstorf 2011; Stevenson et al. 2011; Meehl et al. 2007). Although the exact response of the climate system is highly uncertain (Meehl et al. 2007; Hawkins and Sutton 2009), global mean temperatures are expected to rise in the range 1.5-4.0 °C, depending on the emissions scenario (Moss et al. 2010; Nakicenovic et al. 2000), with the northern hemisphere warming at higher rates than the tropics, with varying (and uncertain) changes in precipitation patterns (Joshi et al. 2011; Hawkins and Sutton 2011). Changes in climates are expected to lead to challenges and opportunities in present-day agricultural systems. State of the art climate change models indicate that the +2°C threshold (beyond which effects of

 

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climate change are predicted to be irreversible) is predicted to be crossed around 2050s globally (SRES-A1B), and between 2030s and 2040s across most of the southern hemisphere. In most of Asia (primarily China and India), +2ºC could be reached in the early 2030s, whereas this threshold is predicted to be crossed 2050s in the United States and most of Central America (SRES-A1B emissions scenario, Joshi et al., 2011). Recent analyses with the new state-of-the-art climate model ensemble (i.e. CMIP5) indicate similar figures under some of the RCP scenarios, particularly RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 (see Knutti and Sedlacek 2012; Menshausen et al. 2011). Under a more mitigation-oriented scenario (SRES-B1), the same threshold is likely to be reached globally about 25 years later (Joshi et al. 2011), depicting the importance of climate change mitigation in “buying” time for adaptation, here broadly defined as the incorporation of new technology and germplasm into existing cropping systems as well as re-location of cropping systems to regions with environmental conditions more favorable to the current cropping system technology. Despite uncertainties, some extreme events have also been predicted to increase in frequency and severity as a result of the shift in mean conditions and/or changes in climate variability (McCarthy et al. 2001; Easterling et al. 2002). These extreme events and climatic variation will also pose additional challenges to perennial horticultural cropping systems. These changes have a number of implications for agricultural systems including the tradeoff between adaptation and mitigation and the importance of eco-efficient adaptation strategies in which time is a critical constraint for adaptation, particularly for perennial crops (Wolfe et al. 2005; Mathur et al. 2012; Lobell et al. 2006). Changes in climates are expected to shift the highly specified niches of coffee (Schroth et al. 2009), cacao (Läderach et al., 2011), and Musa crops (Ramirez et al. 2011; Van den Bergh et al. 2012). Although similar analyses do not exist for other perennial crops, it is highly likely that similar changes would occur in other perennial systems (Wolfe et al. 2005; Estrella et al. 2007). A variety of phenological changes have also been predicted for apple (Eccel et al. 2009) and grapevine (Petrie and Sadras 2008; Duchene et al. 2010; Jones et al. 2005), as two of the most important perennial crop systems in temperate regions.

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The value of a horticultural crop is determined and limited at many points before and during the growing season because the value is based on not only production quantities (i.e. biomass, yield) but also size, color, chemical composition, firmness, and other measurable criteria. Several examples exist that illustrate the sensitivities and the complexity of responses of perennial crop systems to climate change and climate variability (Lobell et al. 2006). For instance, in the year prior to harvest in apple production systems, floral initiation occurs in late spring/early summer (Abbott 1970) and high temperatures reduce the number and vigor of the potential floral buds (Tromp 1980, 1976). During the dormant winter months, extreme cold can kill plant tissues and warming periods can de-acclimate buds making them susceptible to later winter damage (Burke et al. 1976). In the spring, frost periods can kill flowers (Burke et al. 1976). As the fruits are growing in the spring, high temperature can reduce cell division resulting in small fruits (Caprio and Quamme 1999). During the summer months, high temperature can cause sunburn damage, which reduces production efficiency i.e. pack-out at harvest (Caprio and Quamme 1999). High temperatures can also alter maturity, fruit firmness, color development, and decrease the suitability of fruit for short or long-term storage (Woolf and Ferguson 2000). Adaptation strategies are thus needed for perennial crops, but these need to be carefully planned. Perennial cropping systems are commonly in-place as long as 30 years and this poses a challenge with a changing climate since rapid changes in climates could imply that a cultivar planted today would not be adapted sometime in the near future. In addition, the development of

 

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new cultivars for perennial horticultural crops commonly requires 15-30+ years and is highly driven by market demands, further limiting the opportunity to shift cultivars and the overall cultivar variation. A clear example of this is commercial dessert banana production systems, which rely on one single cultivar (‘Cavendish’ banana) due to the lack of others with enough market acceptability (Heslop-Harrison and Schwarzacher 2007). Nevertheless, the socioeconomic factors, market demand for specific cultivar characteristics and inability to rapidly identify adapted cultivars do not necessarily make the perennial horticultural cropping systems more vulnerable to climate change, but they do call attention to the needs of the industry for new cultural and genetic tools and research to adapt in a timely and economic manner. Past climate changes have already affected perennial cropping systems and modeling suggests that future warming will continue to impact cropping systems throughout the world. With the aim of identifying horticultural crop sensitivities to climate change and providing information for use by crop/climate modelers and policy makers in assessing future climate change impacts, a literature review was carried out to provide an overview of the impacts of climate change on horticultural crops and six were selected: two deciduous fruit crops (apple and grape), two evergreen subtropical crops (citrus and coffee), and two tropical crops (banana/plantain and cacao). Sufficient peer-reviewed literature has been generated to provide a perspective of past and future climate change effects on these key crops. Without being excessively comprehensive (as each case study was drawn from a number of highly-detailed studies), the response and interactions of perennial horticultural crops with abiotic factors associated with climate change are documented and for the first time put together into a review. Crop responses to environmental variables are documented and where needed, specific thresholds related to these responses are also provided. Finally, general cross-cutting and cropspecific future research priorities, as well as adaptation strategies are identified and discussed.

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II.

RESPONSE AND INTERACTIONS OF PERENNIAL HORTICULTURAL CROPS WITH ABIOTIC FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATE CHANGE.

A. Elevated CO2 In general, woody plants have shown sustained stimulation of photosynthesis and growth under elevated CO2 (Curtis and Wang 1998) with little down-regulatory acclimation in the field studies using open-top chambers (Norby et al. 1999) or Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) (Ainsworth and Long 2005). Experimental studies on perennial horticultural crops have reported similar results and patterns in photosynthesis and growth in response to elevated CO2. Note that studies reviewed here examined crop responses to roughly doubled CO2 relative to a base ambient CO2 ranging from 330 to 400 ppm with most studies using 350 ppm as the base level. For example, leaf-area based net CO2 assimilation at saturating light and growth CO2 (Amax) was enhanced by an average of 44% in the selected fruit crops in response to roughly doubled CO2 (NCA 2012). Some of these crops have exhibited detectable photosynthetic down regulations (e.g., apple – Chen et al. 2002, citrus – Adam et al. 2004) while others showed mixed (cherry – Druta 2001; Centritto 2005) or little acclamatory responses (e.g., grape- Moutinho-Pereira et al. 2009, peach – Centritto et al. 2002) (also see NCA 2012). Stomatal conductance to water vapor (gs) in general was reduced in these crops grown at elevated CO2 by an average of 23%, which is similar to reported tree response in forest ecosystems (Medlyn et al. 2001). This increased A

 

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with reduced gs under elevated CO2 resulted in a considerable increase in leaf water use efficiency (58%). A similar response was reported at the crop-level water use efficiency (WUE) in several crops (i.e., cherry, citrus, and peach) (NCA 2012). However, despite a considerable increase in water use efficiency both at leaf and crop levels, the actual amount of crop water use remained similar. This is likely because of an increase in tree leaf area offsetting the increase in WUE per leaf area under elevated CO2.

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On average, above-ground biomass increased by 60% in elevated CO2 across the crops reviewed (NCA 2012), however, root:shoot ratio remained similar in apple (Chen et al. 2002a,b) and citrus (Kimball et al. 2007) while it slightly increased in cherry (Druta 2001). A rapid increase in tree leaf area during the early season accelerates early growth and biomass accumulation especially in open canopies (referred to as “compound interest effect” by some) (Norby et al. 1999; Korner 2006). However, this accelerated growth response such as shown in apple (Chen et al. 2001) and cherry (Centritto et al. 1999a,b) is likely to be less pronounced in a full canopy in which the leaf area index (LAI) is more or less stable so that competition for light and other resource are high (Norby et al. 1999). This is particularly true for natural systems where below ground resources such as nutrients, soil moisture, and space are major limiting factors. It has been suggested that long-term, natural responses to increasing CO2 are likely to be less drastic than what has been reported in short-term experiments where plant-soil and/or plantatmosphere connection have been decoupled (Korner 2006). However, many orchard and other perennial horticultural cropping systems are highly managed with optimal fertilization, irrigation, spacing, canopy management, thinning and pruning, and other cultural practices to realize high yield and produce quality. With these management practices that minimize resource limitations, it is conceivable that initial stimulation of high CO2 is sustained and in some cases amplified in perennial horticultural crops. Once such case study is a long-term CO2 enrichment experiment comparing responses at ~350 ppm and ~650ppm of growth CO2 on citrus that ran for 17 years in Phoenix, AZ (Kimball et al. 2007). In this experiment, the enhancement in biomass accumulation under elevated CO2 was sustained at 70% after a peak stimulation occurred two to four years since the start of the experiment (Kimball et al. 2007). A less dramatic but still consistent and considerable CO2 stimulation has been also observed in citrus grown using open-top chambers in humid Florida (Allen and Vu 2009).

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While multiple studies examined biomass and allocation responses to elevated CO2, only a limited number of studies reported fruit yield responses (Idso and Kimball 1997; Bindi et al. 2001; Ito et al. 2002). Even fewer studies have addressed the effects of elevated CO2 on produce and product quality with an exception of wine grapes (Bindi et al. 2001; Goncalves et al. 2009; de Orduna 2010; Moretti et al. 2010). Produce and product quality measures are likely to reflect different biochemical and physiological pathways of interactions between CO2, nutrients (N in particular), temperature, and pest damage. Several studies have examined leaf chemistry of fruit trees grown in elevated CO2 (e.g., Centritto et al. 1999a,b ; Centritto et al. 2002; Adam et al. 2004; Moutinho-Pereira et al. 2009). In these studies, leaves grown under elevated CO2 had about 15% lower nitrogen concentration across commodities on average. Similarly, significant increases in leaf sucrose, starch, and overall C/N ratio have also been found in several studies (e.g., Pan et al. 1998; Chen et al. 2002b; Vu et al. 2002; McElrone et al. 2005).

 

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In summary, perennial horticultural crops exhibit physiological and growth responses that are similar to trees in forest and other unmanaged ecosystems. The CO2 fertilization effect may be amplified and sustained longer for perennial horticultural crops if 1) other resources (e.g., nutrients and water availability) are amply supplied, and 2) proper management options (e.g., spacing, pruning, thinning) are practiced to facilitate the prolonged CO2 effects. This will likely require maintaining intensive cropping systems. In addition, the positive CO2 effect may be negated by the detrimental effects of extreme temperatures on phenology, carbon sinks, and reproductive physiology. Thus, innovative research for low-input cropping systems that integrates our current knowledge to capitalize on the benefits of elevated CO2 while minimizing the input and costs, and temperature stresses is highly needed.

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B. Ozone At seven out of nine rural and remote sites in the western USA, there were significant increases in ozone with a mean trend of 0.26 ppb year−1, corresponding to an average increase of 5 ppb between 1987 and 2004 (Jaffe and Ray 2007). Current levels at background sites range between 20–45 ppb, depending on location, elevation, and distance to emission sources (Vingarzan 2004). According to Fuhrer (2009), there is likely an increase in world-wide ozone in the next century. While Mills et al. (2007) generally classifies horticultural crops as ozone tolerant, other literature indicates threshold levels reducing photosynthesis between 25 and 40 ppb (Reich et al. 1986; Olszyk et al. 1990; Retzlaif et al. 1991; Howitt and Mutters 1994; Sullivan et al. 1994; Walton et al. 1997; Gauchera et al. 2003; Fares et al. 2010) for the representative perennial horticultural crops of this assessment.

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As reviewed by Fuhrer (2009), when elevated ozone is combined with elevated CO2, yield loss is typically considerably less than with ozone alone. The protective effect of CO2 is primarily due to reduced stomatal conductance reducing ozone flux into the leaf and this mechanism is associated with elevated CO2. Consequently, elevated ozone can also diminish the stimulating effect on yield of elevated CO2 and the CO2 protection from ozone effects also becomes less effective with increasing temperature.

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C.

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Perennial horticultural cropping systems require high light intensity and proper light quality for both biomass production and fruit quality (Jackson 1980; Dokoozlian and Kliewer 1996). Pruning and training systems optimize light interception and distribution within the canopy to increase fruit quality. Excessive light can result in solar damage/sunburn while insufficient light can reduce fruit bud formation, color development, soluble solids development and fruit size (NCA 2012).

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Solar Radiation

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III.

CASE STUDIES OF PERENNIAL HORTICULTURAL CROP RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE.

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Production. Europe experienced an average increase of 0.6°C, during the 20th century; the 1946–1975 temperature levels increased in Scandinavia and Central Europe but decreased in Western and North Eastern Europe (IPCC 2001a). There was an intensive warming over most of Europe from 1976–1999, with increases in yearly means of 0.25 to 0.5°C (IPCC 2001a). According to Ahas et al. (2002) for the period of 1951–1998, the onset of spring has advanced four weeks in Western and Central Europe. Western European spring begins earlier due to the influence of the intensifying flow of Atlantic air during early spring and summer periods, which is a result of recent changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (Hurrell 1995). Eastern Europe has a different phenological pattern that is driven by a delayed Siberian high. In this time period, the highest rate of phenological change (−0.3 to −0.4 days per year) occurred in the Western Europe and Baltic Sea regions. The highest rate of change is observed in the Baltic Sea region (−0.46 days per year) and the Eastern European Plain (−0.57 days per year) can be directly linked to an earlier disappearance of snow cover (Jaagus 1997). Phenological studies from the International Phenological Gardens network show that spring phases in Europe begin 10–20 days earlier than 50 years ago except in Eastern Europe where the beginning of spring had smaller changes, with values of 5–15 days earlier over the study period (Ahas et al. 2002).

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Apple bloom dates have advanced 2.3 to 7 days/decade across Europe (Table 1). Urban areas have apple bloom 2 days earlier than rural areas for 1951-1995 on average (Roetzer et al. 2000). In Germany, apple bloom was highly correlated to the February and April temperature and the regression coefficients indicated that a 1ºC increase advanced apple bloom 5 days (Chmielewski et al. 2004, 2011). From February to April the average increase of air temperature was +0.41ºC per decade, and the strongest trend was found for March (+0.58ºC per decade). The threat of late spring frosts, combined with more frequent mild winters, increase the probability of killing frosts in the spring (Burroughs 2002). Eccel et al. (2009) document that apple bloom in the Trentino region of Italy has advanced 2.7 days per decade in the last 25 years. Unlike in Germany, they found a general reduction in the risk of spring frost for apples in recent decades, based on the phenological simulation of flowering dates. The authors project that for the period 1991–2051, the daily maximum temperature will increase 0.021–0.025 °C per year and plants

A. Apples 1. Europe, South Africa and Japan. World apple production for 2011/12 is estimated to be a record of 65 million tons and 81% is used for the fresh market. Approximately 5 million tons are exported world-wide and Russia is the primary buyer. China produces more than half of the world’s apples and China is expected to produce 35 million tonnes (t) in 2012. The European Union (EU) will produce approximately 11.8 million t in 2012 and the primary producing countries, in order of production, are: Poland, Italy, France, and Germany. The EU consumes 70% of the fresh market apples and exports 1.2 million t. South Africa produces approximately 0.8 million t, consumes 31% of the fresh market apples and exports 0.31 million tons. Japan produces approximately 0.8 million tons but consumes 81% of the fresh market apples and exports 0.02 million t. China and the EU produce 600K and 474 thousand t of concentrated apple juice, respectively (US Apple 2011).

 

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would benefit from higher daytime temperatures, fostering faster development, while minimum temperatures would be only slightly higher than present ones; increasing 0.016 °C per year. Their models predicted a reduction in the incidence of frost episodes in the area and their predicted temperatures were in agreement with the IPPC prediction (IPCC 2007a, b). Overall they project a decreasing trend of frost injury for the next few decades.

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According to Grab and Craparo (2011) in the southwestern apple growing regions of the South African cape, for the period 1973–2009, mean annual temperature increased +0.55 °C/decade , the maximum increased +0.37°C/decade while the minimum increased +0.74°C/decade. Thus, for the 37 year period, the observed warming is +2.0°C, which was driven primarily by substantial increases in daily minima. The mean warming trend in June/July (winter) was +0.34°C/decade and was +0.45°C/decade in August/September (spring). Most noteworthy is the pronounced daily minimum increase of +0.68°C/decade as opposed to the daily maximum of +0.23°C/decade during early spring. ‘Golden Delicious’ and ‘Granny Smith’ had earlier bloom dates at a rate of 1.9 days /decade and 1.1 days per decade, respectively. Such trends are associated with a mean early spring temperature increase of +0.45°C/decade. Bloom of ‘Golden Delicious’ apples was advanced (+4.2 days/°C) and ‘Granny Smith’ apples (+2.4 days/°C). There were no significant correlations between winter temperatures and spring bloom in apple and pear suggesting that chill accumulation was not significantly affected, however, the late winter/early spring temperatures 5 weeks before bloom most significantly determined bloom date.

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In Finland, the areas of successful apple production have expanded northwards from the 1970s to the present day (Kaukoranta et al. 2010). It is predicted that in 2011-2040, climate warming will allow expansion of commercial production into the south-eastern lake area, and a wider selection of cultivars for home gardens up to latitudes 65-66°N. Risk of extremely low temperatures (–26°C) has decreased from the 1980s to the present but may not reduce much more in 2011-2040. Risk to shoots from fluctuating temperatures in winter and spring is likely to increase under the high warming scenario, with more risk in the south-west than in the southeast. Risk to trees from winter injury (30% of days/month and there was an average of >8 h/day with temperature of 11 to 16 °C. Increasing temperature and rainfall would lead to increased infection and damage.

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Insect pests. The prediction of an increase in the frequency and intensity of insect pest outbreaks through disruption of parasitoid-herbivore dynamics as climate becomes more variable is documented in15 databases from previously published reports (Stireman et al. 2005; Thomson et al. 2010). Climate change may result in changes to geographical distribution, increased overwintering, changes in population growth rates, increases in the number of generations, extension of the development season, changes in crop-pest synchrony of phenology, changes in interspecific interactions and increased risk of invasion by migrant pests (Porter et al. 1991; Memmott et al. 2007; Parmesan 2007; Ladányi and Horváth 2010).

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According to Harrington et al. (2007) aphids generally have a low developmental temperature threshold (~ 4°C) and a short generation time (120 day degrees above ~25 °C). With a warming of 2°C an extra five generations a year might be expected (Yamamura and Kiritani 1998). Higher rainfall was associated with later aphid flight and higher temperature was associated with earlier flight. Harrington et al. (1995), modeled winter temperature and first flight record of Myzus persicae (green peach aphid) at Rothamsted, and predicted that first flight record would be advanced approximately 14 days °C-1. Zhou et al. (1995) using a different index of phenology predicted an average advance of 9 days in the United Kingdom for the same species and temperature increase.

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Kiritani (2006) reported an increase in mean annual temperatures of about 1.0ºC over the last 40 years in Japan. Differences in the pattern of response to temperature changes would

 

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disrupt synchronization in phenology between insects and host plants or natural enemies. Spider generations and numbers are not expected to rise with increasing temperature due to their wide prey range. However, if insect pests such as Halyomorpha halys (Pentatomidae), which is prevalent in northern Japan and an emerging U.S. pest, experience warmer winters, their winter mortality will decline. For every 1ºC rise in temperature there would be a 15% reduction in the winter mortality of H. halys.

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Water use. According to Lavalle et al. (2009), on average, the annual rate of increase in water demand in Europe is around 50 m3/ha, but in Italy, Greece, Maghreb, central Spain, southern France and Germany it was more than 150– 200 m3/ha resulting in a significant increase in water demand (50–70%). Areas with an increase in rainfall have been observed in the Balkan Peninsula, the Alpine region, Scandinavia, Scotland, Benelux, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, and many Turkish areas. These historic trends are predicted to continue in the climatic projections for Europe (IPCC 2007a, b) in which precipitation increases in the north but decreases in the south, especially during the summer. Also the extremes of daily precipitation are projected to increase in the north and the annual number of rainy days to decrease in the Mediterranean. The risk of summer drought is therefore likely to increase in central Europe and in the Mediterranean area.

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According to Grab and Craparo (2011), in the southwestern apple growing regions of the South African Cape, the annual total precipitation has declined 83.4 mm/decade over the 37 year period, and 66.5 mm/decade for the May to October rainfall period for the period 1973–2009. February was the only single month with a statistically significant monthly decrease over the last 37 years (6.2 mm/decade). Thus, temperature increases are more significant than precipitation decreases over recent decades in this horticultural region.

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2. United States. Apples are grown in every state in the continental United States with the greatest production in Washington, New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, California, and Virginia. (in declining order). The U.S. apple crop is approximately 3.9 million t. Approximately 7,500 U.S. apple growers manage orchards covering 153,000 ha. Approximately 68% of the U.S. apple crop is produced for the fresh fruit market, 47% is domestically consumed as fresh fruit and 18% of the fresh fruit is exported (US Apple 2011).

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Northeastern (NE) Region. In terms of production, an extended frost-free period as projected for the northeast US (Frumhoff et al. 2006; Hayhoe et al. 2007; Wolfe et al. 2008) will tend to benefit perennial horticultural cropping systems requiring a relatively long growing season such as apples, peach, and grape. However, projections for an increase in summer heat stress and drought can reduce yield and crop quality. Wolfe et al. (2008) found that apple yields for Western New York (1971–1982) were lower in years when winters were warmer than average (based on accumulated degree days >5°C from January 1 to bud break). This was likely related

 

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to more variable fruit set following warmer winters. Wolfe et al. (2008) compared projections of summer heat stress frequency (increase in number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 32°C) with the increase in number of heat stress days in the month of July at early-, mid-, and late-21st century. At the higher emissions scenario, within just the next few decades (2010– 2039), a 5-10 day increase in the number of July heat stress days is projected for the southern half of the region i.e., much of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut , and southern New York. With a lower emissions scenario, the climate change impact does not become substantial until midcentury (2040–2069). By the end of century (2070–2099), with higher emissions, most days in July are projected to exceed the 32°C heat stress threshold for most of the US northeast. Even assuming relatively lower emissions, much of the northeast is projected to have 10-15 more days of heat stress in July by end of century, except for some northern areas e.g., northern Maine and Vermont, where the increase is in the range of 5–15 days. The projected increase in summer heat stress will be particularly detrimental to many cool temperature-adapted crops (e.g., apple) that currently dominate the northeast agricultural economy. For many high value horticultural crops, very short-term (hours or a few days) and moderate heat stress at critical growth stages can reduce fruit quality by negatively affecting visual or flavor quality even when total tonnage is not reduced.

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An increase in winter temperatures will affect the northeast perennial horticultural cropping systems. Mid-winter warming can lead to early bud-burst or bloom of some perennial plants, resulting in frost damage when cold winter temperatures return. An extreme example occurred in 2012 in the US Midwest for apple when bloom occurred fully 4 weeks early with disastrous consequences from an early frost. Yields will be negatively affected if the chilling requirement (i.e., hourly cumulative thermal units below a threshold temperature) is not completely satisfied because flower emergence and viability will be low. All temperate perennial horticultural crops have a chilling requirement ranging from 200 to 2000 cumulative hours. Wolfe et al. (2008) analyzed the future chill requirements of the NE and found that a 400 h chilling requirement will continue to be met for most of the NE during this century regardless of emissions scenario. However, crops with prolonged cold requirements (1000 or more hours) could be negatively affected, particularly in southern sections of the NE and at the higher emissions scenario, where less than 50% of years satisfy the chill requirement by mid 21st century. The impact on crops will vary with species and cultivar since each species has a range of cultivars with widely varying chill requirement.

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There is a historical trend for increased frequency of high-precipitation events (>5 cm in 48 h) (Wake 2005) in the NE, and this trend is expected to continue with a further increase in number of high precipitation events of 8% by mid-century and 12–13% by the end of the century (Frumhoff et al. 2006). More rainfall concentrated into high precipitation events, combined with stable to modest reductions in summer and fall rainfall and increased temperatures leads to a projection for more short- (1–3 month) and medium-term (3–6 month) droughts for the region, particularly in the north and eastern parts of the NE (Frumhoff et al. 2006; Hayhoe et al. 2007). Drought frequency is projected to be much greater at the higher (A1F1) compared to lower (SRES-B1) emissions scenario, according to Wolfe et al. (2008). By the end of century and with higher emissions, short-term droughts are projected to occur as frequently as once per year for much of the NE, and occasional long-term droughts (>6 month) are projected for western upstate NY where perennial horticultural crops are a major industry (Wolfe et al. 2008).

 

16     422   423   424   425   426   427  

In the NE, the projected increase in short- to medium-term drought (Hayhoe et al. 2007) will tend to decrease the duration of leaf wetness and reduce some forms of pathogen attack on leaves. However, an increase in humidity and frequency of heavy rainfall events projected for the NE (Frumhoff et al. 2006) will tend to favor some leaf and root pathogens (Coakley et al. 1999) and the projected increased rainfall frequency (Frumhoff et al. 2006) may reduce the efficacy of contact fungicides requiring more frequent applications.

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A warming trend is likely to lead to increased pesticide use in the NE due to earlier arrival of migratory insects, more winter survival of insects that currently are only marginally adapted to the region, and more generations of insects within a single season (Wolfe et al. 2008). In addition, some classes of pesticides (pyrethroids and spinosad), key to perennial horticultural cropping systems, have been shown to be less effective in controlling insects at higher temperatures (Musser and Shelton 2005).

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Increased drought frequency in the NE together with warmer growing season temperatures will result in greater crop water requirements (Wolfe et al. 2008). Perennial horticultural crops have reduced yield and quality in association with water deficits and reduced profits as a result. While many producers of perennial horticultural crops in the NE have some irrigation equipment, most have not invested in enough equipment to optimize irrigation scheduling and fully meet ET requirements of all of their acreage (Wilks and Wolfe 1998).

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Pacific Northwest. Stöckle et al. (2010) predicted that climate change would slightly decrease the production of apples by 1%, 3%, and 4% for the 2020, 2040, and 2080 scenarios with no elevated CO2 effect. Under a warmer climate, crop development will proceed at a faster rate, reducing the opportunity for biomass gain. However, when the effect of elevated CO2 and warming is modeled, yields are projected to increase by 6%, 9%, and 16% for 2020, 2040, and 2080 scenarios compared to current levels, assuming the availability of cultivars able to use the extended season or other adaptive technologies. Although average temperatures are projected to increase for all climate scenarios, the frequency of frost events may limit cropping due to earlier flowering. Under the projected climate change, flowering will occur about 3 days earlier in the 2020 scenario, which will slightly increase the frequency of frost events, increasing yield loss from frost damage or increase the need and expense for frost protection. Limited chill accumulation is not projected to limit apple production in eastern WA. Water supply was assumed sufficient for irrigated crops, but other studies suggest that it may decrease in many locations due to climate change.

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In eastern WA, cherry powdery mildew is predicted to increase under the CCSM3 (2020 only) and the CGCM3 projected climate. There will be small increases or no change in the risk from grapevine powdery mildew for all climate projections. Overall, a warmer climate but with small changes in precipitation during the growing season would tend to maintain and eventually reduce the incidence of these diseases, unless there is an increase in precipitation early in the growing season (Stöckle et al. 2010).

 

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Stöckle et al. (2010) simulated codling moth development using baseline climate and projections from four GCMs. These simulation indicated first adult flights occurring 6, 9, and 14 days earlier on average than the baseline for the 2020, 2040, 2080 scenarios. The beginning of the first generation egg hatch was advanced by 6, 8, and 13 days, and the beginning of the second generation egg hatch was advanced by 10, 14, and 21 days for the 2020, 2040, and 2080 scenarios. Earlier emergence of adults in the spring coupled with warmer summer temperatures increased the likelihood that most apple-growing locations in the state would have a complete third generation egg hatch. Current pheromone technology would not last an entire season unless more pheromone was added to dispensers, increasing grower costs. In order to protect later maturing cultivars, one to two additional sprays per season would most likely be needed. Warmer winter temperatures could result in an extended emergence pattern for codling moth making it more difficult to precisely time control applications, further increasing control costs for growers.

474   475   476   477   478   479   480   481   482   483  

Elsner et al. (2010) simulated the hydrology of Washington State and the Yakima River Basin, and projected April 1 snow water equivalents (SWE) to decrease by 28 to 30% across the State by the 2020s, 38 to 46% by the 2040s, and 56 to 70% by the 2080s. In the Yakima Basin, April 1 SWE will decrease by 35% to 37% by the 2020s, 47% to 57% by the 2040s, and 68% to 82% by the 2080s. The peak weekly SWE historically occurs near mid-March. Projections of weekly SWE for the 2020s indicate that SWE will be reduced by an average of 39% to 41%. The peak week is projected to shift to early or mid-March. By the 2040s, SWE will be reduced by 50% to 58% with a peak projected to occur near early March, and by 67% to 80% by the 2080s with a peak projected to occur near mid-February. Competition for water will increase between urban, agricultural and watershed interests.

484   485   486   487  

B.

Grapes

1.

Europe and Australia

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Grape production is increasing world-wide. Global grape production is expected to be 16.5 million t in 2012 with a trend for increasing production into the future (USDA, NASS 2012). The top 10 grape producers are: China, Italy, USA, Spain, France, Turkey, Chile, Argentina, Iran, and Australia with China producing 8.7 million t in 2011. Grapes are marketed as fresh table grapes, processed for wine and dried for raisins. China produced 6.7 million t of table grapes in 2011. Turkey and the EU produced 2.2 and 1.9 million t, respectively, while Brazil, Chile, India and the U.S. produced 1.3, 1.2, 1.0 and 0.9 million t, respectively (USDA, NASS 2012). Global wine production in 2010 was 25.6 million t. The top 7 wine producing countries, in million tonnes (Mt) per year, were: Italy (4.6), France (4.5), Spain (3.6), USA (2.2), China (1.7), Argentina (1.6), and Australia (1.1) (FAOSTAT, 2012). Global raisin production was 1.1 Mt with Turkey and the US leading the production. Raisins are the most popular dried fruit in the United States, accounting for about two-thirds of total US dried fruit consumption. Global raisin exports were about 0.7 Mt in 2010 and are generally stable from year to year (USDA, FAS 2012).

 

18     502   503   504   505   506   507   508  

In the current climate, major production areas are represented by locations in China, Europe, US, Australia, Chile, and South Africa (Jones et al. 2005). Reflecting the importance and influence of viticulture and wine to global economy and culture, a high volume of published research has addressed the impacts of recent and future climate change on viticulture and wine quality throughout the world. Many of these studies focused on the regions in Europe, US, and Australia while fewer studies covered China, South America, and South Africa (JorqueraFontena and Orrego-Verdugo 2010; Agosta and Canziani 2012; Bonnardot et al. 2012 ).

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Production. In Europe, numerous long-term phenological data sets exist for grapevines and these data have been utilized for studying climate impacts on wine production and quality. For example, records of grape harvest dates in Burgundy, France have been used to reconstruct historical temperature data from 1370 to 2003 (Chuine et al. 2004). Likewise, recent climatology data (1952-1997) revealed that the phenology of grapevines in Bordeaux in the last two decades of the period was characterized with earlier phenological events, shorter phenological intervals, and longer growing seasons (Jones and Davis 2000). The same study found that ‘Merlot’ is more phenologically and climatologically sensitive than ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’ in Bordeaux. In the Parisian and Burgundy regions of France, yearly minimum temperature increased approximately 1.0ºC in the 20th century (Tourre et al. 2011). It is speculated that ‘Pinot Noir’ grape, which has a narrow climatic niche, may be partly eliminated and replaced by other cultivars in Cote de Beaune region of Burgundy in response to climate change (Tourre et al. 2011). Similar warming trends have also been observed in Spain and Italy (Dalla Marta et al. 2010; Garcia-Mozo et al. 2010; Tomasi et al. 2011). In the Veneto region of Italy, the average growing season temperature increased by 2.3ºC from 1964 to 2009. This warming resulted in 13 to 19 days accelerations in bloom, veraison, and harvest dates across early, middle, and late maturing cultivars (Tomasi et al. 2011). This change over time approximately translates to an average advancement of 8 days per 1.0ºC warming during this period (Tomasi et al. 2011). Similar results were observed in Spain with an average of 10 days advancement in leaf unfolding over the 1989-2000 period (Garcia-Mozo et al. 2010).

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Using bioclimatic envelope modeling, detrimental impacts on production and quality have been predicted in southern Europe, mainly due to increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during the growing season (Malheiro et al. 2010). However, projected climate conditions are predicted to benefit not only wine quality, but might also expand the potential production areas for viticulture in western, central, and eastern Europe (Malheiro et al. 2010; Ruml et al. 2012). In the Alsace region of France, veraison is projected to advance up to 23 days for ‘Riesling’ and ‘Gewurztraminer’ by 2100 (Duchene et al. 2010). A similar advancement of up to 17 days from bud-burst to flowering and 46 days from sprouting to harvest by 2100 has also been projected for the ‘Gewurtztraminer’ in southern Chile (Jorquera-Fontena and OrregoVerdugo 2010). In the Douro region of Portugal, yield is projected to increase by 2100 using a statistical grape yield model based on ensemble simulations under the SRES-A1B emission scenario (Santos et al. 2011). High elevation areas have been projected to show more pronounced phenological and growth responses suggesting some mountainous area such as the Italian Alps may become suitable for viticulture (Caffarra and Eccel 2011). This may be an adaptation strategy to increase profitability in mountain viticulture of the region. However, northward range

 

19     545   546   547   548   549  

shifts of grape production areas may be less than expected if winter freeze events increase in frequency during the early stages of cold acclimation (i.e., November to mid-January in northern Europe or Pacific Northwest) (Quamme et al. 2010). When combined with elevated CO2 effects, global climate projections produced increased mean biomass, and increased variability in fruit and total biomass in a study that used a process-based crop growth model (Bindi et al. 1996).

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In Australia, an average advance of 1.7 days per year in wine grape maturity was observed during the 1993-2009 period (Webb et al. 2011). Earlier ripening trends in the last 64 years have been attributed to climate warming and declines in soil water. Yield reduction and management practices have also contributed to the observed advances in maturity (Webb et al. 2012). Specifically, early maturity in southeastern Australia due to high temperatures has been attributed to the early onset of ripening (veraison) rather than faster ripening (Sadras and Petrie 2011). Advanced maturity of between 0.5 and 3 days per year has been observed in ‘Chardonnay’, ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’, and ‘Shiraz’ grown in Australia between 1993 and 2006 (Petrie and Sadras 2008); this is somewhat greater than the reported phenological advancements observed in the northern hemisphere (Jones and Davis 2000; Jones et al. 2005; Wolfe et al. 2005).

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Based on multiple regional climate projections, a continued advancement in wine grape phenology is projected to occur in Australia (Webb et al. 2007). When a median growing season temperature > 21ºC was used as an indicator of the climate conditions limiting wine quality and wine grape production, only 3 regions out of 61 regions that are currently recognized for wine grape growing in Australia were delineated to sit outside the threshold in the current climate. However, this number increased to 21 regions by 2070 based on a Mk3.0 GCM scenario (Hall and Jones 2009). In Australia, the greatest change in grapevine growing season temperature is projected to occur in the Perth Hills region with a projected increase of 2.7ºC by 2070 while the least change was modeled to occur in the Kangaroo Island region which will increase as much as 1.3ºC by 2070 (Hall and Jones 2009). Budburst of ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’ in Coonawarra is projected to occur 6 to 11 days earlier and harvest will be accelerated up to 45 days in 2050 (Webb et al. 2007). Warming in some regions may adversely delay budburst because chilling requirements are unmet in a warmer climate (Webb et al. 2007).

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Physiologically, impacts of high temperature on reproductive growth and the grape ripening process are closely linked to carbon assimilation (Greer and Weston 2010) as well as other limiting factors such as soil water and nitrogen (Van Leeuwen et al. 2004). In ‘Semillion’ grape, light saturated photosynthesis exhibited an optimal at 30ºC in ambient CO2 (389 ppm) and was inhibited by 60% at 45ºC compared with 25ºC (Greer and Weedon 2012). However, heat stress in various phenological stages did not affect gas-exchange and yield of irrigated ‘Shiraz’ suggesting varietal differences in their photosynthetic response to temperature (Sadras and Soar 2009; Soar et al. 2009). A detailed review of climate impacts on grape reproductive growth, yield, and fruit chemical composition is provided by Keller (2010).

583   584   585  

Quality. Wine grapes are sensitive to climate change because of the intrinsic link between the climate, plant stress, grape characteristics, and the resulting wine quality. Growing season

 

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temperature has considerable impacts on grape quality and viability throughout the phenological stages from spring vegetative growth, berry growth and ripening, and maturation (Jones et al. 2005). High quality wine production areas in Western and Central Europe have experienced increased quality ratings associated with recent warming trends ( Jones et al. 2005; Duchene et al. 2010; Malheiro et al. 2010; Bock et al. 2011). However, the presumed rule of thumb “the warmer the better” in viticulture may not be true globally in the future as numerous wine production regions appear to have optimum temperatures for the current cultivars regardless of climate maturity groups (Jones et al. 2005). Furthermore, many regions and cultivars are currently at or near the optimal growing season temperature suggesting that further warming will likely negatively impact viticulture and wine quality of many regions (Jones et al. 2005). The amount and concentrations of sugars, amino acids, phenolic compounds, soluble solids, and pH during grape ripening are tightly associated with wine quality (Keller 2010). The phenolic compounds are closely related to the status of plant stress; grapevines with moderate vigor experiencing mild to moderate stress (e.g., water deficit, nitrogen stress) are known to produce grapes for high quality wines (Van Leeuwen and Seguin 2006). Concentrations of key phenolic compounds (i.e., anthocyanins, tannins, and total phenolics) have been positively correlated with cool temperatures following harvest in the previous year, warm temperatures from budburst to bloom, and cool temperatures from bloom to veraison in California (Nicholas et al. 2011) whereas anthocyanin concentration at 35ºC was reduced to less than 50% of that at 25 ºC in Cabernet Sauvignon in a controlled environment study (Mori et al. 2007).

606   607   608   609   610   611   612   613   614  

In general, climate change (i.e., warming) is expected to influence wine quality by increasing grape sugar concentration leading to high alcohol levels and lower acidities (de Orduna, 2010). Sugar:acid ratio, berry weights and potential wine quality have increased for ‘Merlot’and ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’ grown in Bordeaux, France in the last 50 years (Jones and Davis, 2000). Similar results showing increased sugar content with decreased acid components were found in the northerly Lower Franconia region growing white grape cultivars such as ‘Muller-Thurgau’, ‘Riesling’, and ‘Silvaner’ (Bock et al. 2011). Higher pH in wines can change microbial ecology associated with musts and wines increasing the risk of spoilage and degradation (de Orduna, 2010).

615   616   617   618   619  

In Australia, the reduction to grape quality was predicted to vary regionally, with greater quality reductions calculated for the inland regions (Webb et al. 2008). Webb et al. (2008) predicted that wine grape quality may be reduced from 7% with lower warming to 39% with higher future warming by the year 2030, and from 9% with lower warming to 76% with higher warming by the year 2050.

620   621  

2.

622   623   624   625   626  

Production. White et al. (2006) calculated that US premium wine grape production area could decline by up to 81% by the late 21st century. They found that increases in heat accumulation will likely shift wine production to cultivars adapted to warmer temperatures which may be lower quality, and that while frost constraints will be reduced, increases in the frequency of extreme hot days (>35 °C) in the growing season are projected to completely eliminate wine

 

United States

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grape production in many areas of the United States. Grape and wine production will likely be restricted to a narrow West Coast region and to the Northwest and Northeast, where excess moisture is already problematic. Jones et al. (2010) examined suitability for viticulture in the western U.S. They contrived five regions (I to V) with broad suitability for viticulture across cool to hot climates, and they also listed cultivars that grow best in those regions. Regions I, II, III, IV, and V had GDD = 850–1389, 1389–1667, 1667–1944, 1944–2222, and 2222–2700, respectively. The coolest region (I) occurs highest in elevation, most coastal, and most northerly (e.g., the Willamette Valley), while the warmest region (V) areas are mostly confined to the Central Valley and further south in California (e.g., the San Joaquin Valley). Based on the historical record, 34% of the western U.S. falls into regions I-V with 59% being too cold and 7% too hot. Of the area suitable for viticulture, Region I encompasses 34.2%, region II 20.8%, region III 11.1%, region IV 8.7%, and region V 25.2%. According to Jones et al. (2010), projections for average growing season temperatures from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) of 1.0-3.0°C for 2049 result in a range of increases in growing degree-days of 15-30%. For a 15% increase in growing degree days by 2049, the area of the western U.S. in regions I-V increase 5% from 34% to 39% and at the higher range of a 25% increase in growing degree days, increases by 9% to 43%. Overall the changes show a reduction in the areas that are too cold from 59% to 41% while the areas that are too hot increase from 7% to 16% in the greater warming scenario. Within the individual regions there are shifts to predominately more land in region I (34.2% to 40.6%), smaller changes to region II (20.8 to 23.4%), region III (11.1 to 14.2%), and region IV (8.7 to 10.1%), and a reduction of region V area from 25.2 to 11.6% which is shifting the regions toward the coast, especially in California, and upwards in elevation (most notably in the Sierra Nevada Mountains).

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In another regional analysis for the west coast of the U.S., Lobell et al. (2006) examined the impacts of climate change on yields of perennial crops in California. The research combined the output from numerous climate models with statistical crops models for almond, walnut, avocado, and wine, and table grape. The results show a range of warming across climate models of ~1.0-3.0°C for 2050 and 2.0-6.0°C for 2100 and a range of changes in precipitation from -40 to +40% for both 2050 and 2100. Wine grapes showed the smallest yield declines compared to the other crops, but showed substantial spatial shifts in suitability to more coastal and northern counties. For oranges, walnuts, and avocados, not only are the areas with the potential for high yields dramatically reduced but the areas with appropriate climate tend to be in dry or mountainous regions with limited opportunities for agriculture. Less than 5% of simulations for almonds, table grapes, walnuts, and avocados indicated a zero or positive response to climate change by mid-century. Two main factors contribute to this result: (1) all of these crops are either at or above their optimum temperatures in current climate and all climate models project at least some climate warming, (2) all of these crops are irrigated, so that the precipitation projections have a relatively minor effect. The authors also note that historical increases in yield have low attribution to climate trends and were due more to changes in cultural and genetic technology. Hayhoe et al. (2004) predicted by the end of the century that snowpack declines 73– 90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and stream flow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California’s water rights system.

669  

 

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Insects. The vine mealybug (VMB, Planococcus ficus) is a major pest of grape production in California (Gutierrez et al. 2006). Extensive biological control efforts are underway to control VMB, but to-date, success has been elusive (Gutierrez and Daane 2005). High VMB densities occur in more northern regions and in coastal regions of southern California. VMB is less abundant in dryer warmer regions. The distribution and abundance of the natural enemies is patchy across the different grape growing regions. If biological control of VMB is finally established, climate change could adversely affect it.

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Water Use. Increased drought frequency in the NE together with warmer growing season temperatures will result in greater crop water requirements (Wolfe et al. 2008), however, most growers have not invested sufficient capital to optimize irrigation scheduling and fully meet ET requirements of all of their acreage (Wilks and Wolfe 1998).

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As discussed previously with apple, the hydrology of Washington State is projected to be altered so that April 1 snow water equivalents (SWE) will decrease by 28 to 30% across the state by the 2020s, 38 to 46% by the 2040s, and 56 to 70% by the 2080s (Elsner et al., 2010). The peak weekly SWE historically occurs near mid-March in Yakima River Basin. The peak week is projected to shift to early or mid-March by the 2040s and to near mid-February by the 2080s. Similarly in CA, Miller et al (2003) simulated the hydrology for Sacramento, American, and Merced Basins. The SWE decreases for most basins, and the peak is earlier for all basins by 2080 to 2099. There is an early season increase in snowmelt water from 2010 to 2099 with earlier snowmelt seasons with a slower river flow rate later in the season. These reductions in growing season irrigation water will greatly limit perennial horticultural crop production in the arid and semi-arid crop production regions unless sufficient water is stored in reservoirs. The impact will be most on late season crops. Impact on crop water use efficiency of elevated CO2 on the selected crops is reviewed (NCA 2012). In general, water use efficiency (i.e., biomass or yield per water use) in perennial horticultural crops is likely to increase because of reduced stomatal conductance and growth stimulation in high CO2. However, overall water use in many crops is likely to remain similar or even increase as a result of corresponding increases in leaf area (NCA 2012) and especially as a result of rising temperatures (e.g., Kimball and Bernacchi 2006; Kimball 2007).

700   701  

C.

702   703   704   705   706   707   708   709  

Production. Bananas (Musa sp.) are mostly grown throughout the tropical developing world (Plate 1, Table 2), particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where they provide a critical part of the dietary basis and often the sole source of income for rural populations (Lemchi et al. 2005; van Asten et al. 2011). ). Although Musa crops are highly sensitive to excessively high or low temperatures, it is also grown in sub-tropical environments in India, China and Brazil (Delvaux 1999; FAO 2010). Originating in Asia (Heslop-Harrison and Schwarzacher 2007; De Langhe et al. 2010) bananas have spread throughout all the tropics and subtropics, where they are now grown as either cash or food security crops in 126 countries (Delvaux 1999; Heslop-Harrison and

 

Banana/Plantain

23     710   711   712  

Schwarzacher 2007; FAO 2010); moreover, bananas and plantains contribute to the food supply by weight in more than half the countries in the world (FAO 2010), including many developed countries, where they are consumed as dessert fruits (De Langhe et al. 2010).

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Changes in climates in banana growing regions have been examined elsewhere (Ramirez et al. 2011; Van den Bergh et al. 2012) using state-of-the-art GCMs. These studies have found that by 2020s, precipitation changes in banana growing regions are highly geographically variable (changes between -200 mm to +240 mm per year), with Sub-Saharan Africa and Australasia predicted to experience increases in annual precipitation, while northern Africa, Central America and the Caribbean are predicted to experience reductions of up to 100 mm/year. About 9% of the total global harvested area could experience important decreases in annual rainfall (>50 mm), while 10% is predicted to have increases in annual mean temperature in the range 1-1.5°C (Jarvis et al. 2008; Ramirez et al. 2011).

723   724   725   726   727   728   729   730   731   732   733   734   735   736   737   738   739   740   741   742  

Although a large number of studies have focused on the responses of banana to environmental conditions (Turner and Lahav 1983; Gaidashova et al. 2009; Nyombi 2010; Turner 1998a), the literature on the responses of bananas to climate change is sparse (Ramirez et al. 2011), primarily because there is no reputable process-based crop growth model with which such responses can be assessed for banana cultivars of different genomic constitution (Nyombi 2010; Ramirez et al. 2011; Youssef et al. 2011). Two studies were identified in the literature as the only ones using models to assess the possible responses of banana cropping systems under future climate scenarios (see Ramirez et al. 2011 and Van den Bergh et al. 2012). These two studies assess the impact of climate change on the crop using a climatic suitability model named EcoCrop (fully described by Ramirez-Villegas et al. 2012). Briefly, EcoCrop calculates the potential suitability of a climate using the ranges of temperature and precipitation in which the crop can grow and spatially-explicit databases of mean climatology (such as those of Hijmans et al. 2005). Any further references to banana suitability as well as Plate 2 have been derived either directly or indirectly from the EcoCrop model results in the studies of Ramirez et al. (2011) and Van den Bergh et al. (2012). Changes in climates are expected to impact Musa productivity and any associated climate-constrained pests or diseases (Jarvis et al. 2008; Ramirez et al. 2011; Van den Bergh et al. 2012). Future climates (2020s) are expected to be less suitable in more than 70% of the global land areas (mainly tropical areas), although there could be gains towards the subtropics that could both increase yields and expand areas suitable for Musa (Mathur et al. 2012; Van den Bergh et al. 2012).

743   744   745   746   747   748   749   750  

Bananas grow optimally with abundant water and temperatures in the range 20-30°C (Simmonds 1962), although they are also grown successfully in sub-tropical monsoonal environments where conditions are outside the optimal range. For example, India, being mostly a subtropical country is the major producer of banana (Table 2). Of the various environmental controls on banana growth and development, the combined environmental effects on fruit quality, yield, and crop cycle length are probably amongst the most critical, as these are critical traits for timely market supply and fruit consumption (Turner and Lahav 1983; Robinson 1996; Turner 1998b; Turner et al. 2007).

 

24     751   752   753   754   755   756   757   758   759  

The main factors that operate against banana production, apart from pests and diseases, are prolonged dry seasons (1-3 consecutive dry months) (Grimm 2008; van Asten et al. 2011), cold spells and frost events, extremely hot and cyclonic winds (Sastry 1988). Temperatures outside the range 26-28°C decrease foliar development (Ganry 1980; Turner and Lahav 1983; Turner 1998a) and outside the range 29-30°C decrease the rate of fruit maturation (Turner et al. 2007) . Furthermore, in most cultivars temperatures below 16°C significantly slow growth rates and below 10°C stop growth (Aubert 1971) as do temperatures of 38-40°C (Turner and Lahav 1983; Van den Bergh et al. 2012). Fruits suffer distortion with temperatures below 16°C (Stover and Simmonds 1987).

760   761   762   763   764  

Bananas require around 1300-2600 mm water/year for adequate growth, although they can grow in far more humid environments (in the range of 5000 mm/year) in well-drained soils (Nyombi 2010; Ramirez et al. 2011). Biomass accumulation, bunch weight, and fruit quality substantially benefit from both adequate rainfall amounts and distribution or from supplementary irrigation (Stover 1972; Sastry 1988).

765   766   767   768   769   770   771   772   773   774   775   776   777   778   779   780  

The impacts of climate change are expected to vary on a regional basis (Ramirez et al. 2011; Van den Bergh et al. 2012). Where banana is grown in sub-tropical environments, increases in minimum temperatures and in degree days above 14ºC can accelerate fruit development (Ganry and Meyer 1975; Turner and Barkus 1982) and shorten the crop cycle length, thus increasing the capacity of such regions to produce an increasing market supply (Van den Bergh et al. 2012). Nevertheless, this could be offset if substantial changes in extremes occur (Meehl et al. 2007). Changes in the distribution and decreases in the amount of rainfall in East Africa (i.e. Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Malawi) could pose a severe additional constraint for highland bananas, which already suffer from drought (Ramirez et al. 2011; van Asten et al. 2011). In contrast, in the growing areas of Costa Rica and Colombia, where rainfall amount is considerably high, decreases in rainfall are expected to either cause beneficial effects from the decrease in black leaf streak disease prevalence or to not significantly affect the cropping system. Although conclusions regarding impacts are contingent on climate model skill and uncertainty which is inevitably high, particularly for rainfall (Hawkins and Sutton 2009, 2011), precipitation amounts are predicted to increase in Eastern Africa and decrease in Central America (Ramirez et al. 2011).

781   782   783   784   785   786   787   788   789   790   791  

Future climatic suitability is predicted to be significantly reduced in several lowlands (Plate 2) and benefits have been reported in highlands (Ramirez et al. 2011). Many lowland areas in Latin America, coastal western Africa and large parts of Asia and the Pacific are likely to experience short periods of excessively high temperatures, thus affecting flowering and fruit filling, particularly towards the end of the 21st century (Brat et al. 2004; Joshi et al. 2011; Ramirez et al. 2011; Van den Bergh et al. 2012). Additionally, particularly high decreases in banana climatic suitability are predicted for the Amazon, northern Colombia, large areas of Central America, and western Africa. Overall, Sub-Saharan Africa is predicted to experience increases in suitability (Plate 2D). However, it must be noted that the model used to produce these predictions does not take into account specific abiotic stresses arising from short periods of high or low temperatures or rainfall (Ramirez et al. 2011).

 

25     792   793   794   795   796   797   798   799   800   801   802   803   804   805  

Poor fruit development is likely to be experienced across West Africa and the lowlands of Latin America, primarily due to drought. Many positive impacts are predicted in subtropical areas arising from increases in temperatures; however these could be offset by changes in rainfall distribution (IPCC 2007). Such changes (not studied for banana to date) could lead to significant decreases in rates of leaf emergence (Turner and Lahav 1983; Turner 1998a). Overall, crop climatic suitability changes indicate that both benefits and challenges are expected for banana production. Major producing areas are predicted to shift geographically due to the increases in baseline temperatures, although for some regions this could bring substantial benefits; thus East Africa is predicted to experience increases in suitability between 5-30% in 80% of its areas. Although much more detailed modelling is required to reach more accurate conclusions, future abiotic constraints can result in increased market supply for some regions such as the subtropics, but can pose a constraint for tropical areas in Latin America with high present-day temperatures, including Costa Rica, where banana production has a large contribution to the national agricultural GDP (Ramirez et al. 2011).

806   807   808   809   810   811   812   813  

The specificity of the export banana market, which is restricted largely to the Cavendish subgroup, AAA, and the difficulty in conventional breeding (J. Aguilar pers, commun,), makes cultivar development and substitution a hard task for any market-oriented production system such as most of the production areas of Latin America. Adapting to challenges for the banana sector will require improved agronomic practices that preserve soil quality and avoid high canopy temperatures, as well as the development of more resilient cultivars with increased tolerance of drought and temperature extremes, and with fruit quality that is acceptable to markets.

814   815   816   817   818   819   820   821   822   823   824  

1. Disease. Banana production has been historically hampered by biotic stress and to date, about 50% of total investment on banana production per year in the major humid production areas of Latin America is solely dedicated to controlling pests and diseases (Kema 2009; Garcia et al. 2010). Commercial banana plantations are all clones of AAA Cavendish subgroup and hybrids and/or landraces that show both resistance to pests and diseases and fruit quality that is acceptable to the market are lacking (Heslop-Harrison and Schwarzacher 2007; Grimm 2008). This makes banana production particularly vulnerable to diseases (Ploetz 2006; Grimm 2008). A clear example of this is the crisis in the second half of the 20th century, when race 1 of Fusarium wilt (FOC, Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense) almost caused the collapse of the banana sector worldwide, with an estimated loss of US$400 million (Ploetz 2006).

825   826   827   828   829   830   831   832   833  

The most economically important banana disease is black leaf streak (BLS, Mycosphaerella fijiensis M.) (Vuylsteke 2001; Marín et al. 2003; Lemchi et al. 2005), although many other important diseases are spread throughout the world: FOC, particularly tropical race 4 (TR4) in Asia (Molina et al. 2009); banana bunchy top disease (BBTD, caused by banana bunchy top virus -BBTV) in Asia and Africa (Thomas and Caruana 2000); and various bacterial wilts and nematode species (Gaidashova et al. 2009). Nonchemical alternatives to control banana diseases are limited or non-existent. Furthermore, recent research at the Corporacion Bananera Nacional (CORBANA) in Costa Rica has shown that there is no single hybrid that can tolerate FOC TR4 (J. Sandoval pers. commun,).

 

26     834   835   836   837   838   839   840   841   842   843   844   845  

In spite of the importance of bananas worldwide, the economic importance of pests and diseases for the banana sector and the forthcoming threat of climate change, limited research has been carried out on the impacts of climate change on banana pests and diseases (Jarvis et al. 2008; Alves et al 2011; Ramirez et al. 2011). Such studies have focused on the prevalence of black leaf streak using empirical and/or statistical approaches rather than process based models [see Forbes et al. (2008) for an example of a disease process-based model] whose applicability outside calibration ranges is limited; therefore, existing projections have not been done for novel climatic conditions (Williams et al. 2007). In addition, the responses of the various nematode species that affect banana production, and the future status of other non-climatic dependent pests or diseases have only been barely, if at all, explored (Ploetz 2006; Molina et al. 2009; Ramirez et al. 2011). For these reasons, we focus primarily on the expected response of BLS, yet briefly summarize some preliminary-expected trends in other pests and diseases.

846   847   848   849   850   851   852   853   854  

BLS is a fungal disease that causes necrosis to the leaf tissues, thus reducing photosynthesis and leaf appearance rates. In susceptible cultivars, it can cause either plant death or early bunch ripening (Stover 1972; Fouré 1994; Craenen and Ortiz 2003). Commercial bananas are all highly susceptible to BLS (Fouré 1994; Vuylsteke 2001; Ramirez et al. 2008; Ramirez et al. 2011) and hence the disease in such systems has to be managed primarily by means of fungicide applications. In humid areas of Costa Rica, Colombia, and Ecuador, fungicide applications are done on a weekly basis, or even more often (Marín et al. 2003; Orozco-Santos et al. 2008). Plantains, in contrast, often show more resistant responses (Fouré 1994).

855   856   857   858   859   860   861   862   863  

The climatic niche to which BLS is suited is almost perfectly matched with the climatically suitable environments of bananas: both banana and BLS optimum development occur in the range 20-30°C (Simmonds 1962; Stover 1972; Stover and Simmonds 1987; Porras and Perez 1997). Development of M. fijiensis occurs in the range 12-36ºC, with an optimum temperature of 27ºC (Stover 1983; Jacome et al. 1991; Porras and Perez 1997). High relative humidity, leaf wetness and winds increasingly favor the reproduction and spread of the pathogen (Stover 1972, 1983; Jacome and Schuh 1992). On the other hand, areas with strong monsoonal influence and drought periods accompanied by temperatures above 30ºC will severely limit the prevalence and development of the disease (Marín et al. 2003; Alves et al. 2011).

864   865   866   867   868   869   870   871   872   873  

Previous studies have shown that subtropical regions currently lacking BLS could become suitable for the pathogen as low temperature thresholds are exceeded (Jarvis et al. 2008). In Brazil, disease prevalence is expected to shift downwards (Alves et al. 2011). Overall, however, by 2050s, increases in temperature will likely cause some 90% of the areas currently suitable for BLS in the tropics to have predicted decreases in disease prevalence (Ramirez et al. 2011). Nevertheless, in areas where rainfall increases are expected, such as East Africa, the disease could be triggered, particularly in highlands, where minimum temperatures would not be expected to remain a constraint for the fungi to develop (Jacome and Schuh 1992; Porras and Perez 1997; Ramirez et al. 2011). Predicted drier climates in Central America and the Caribbean are expected to reduce disease prevalence (Ramirez et al. 2011).

874  

 

27     875   876   877   878   879   880   881  

2. Nematodes. The severity of nematodes of the species Radopholus similis would increase in humid highlands if rainfall amount is to decrease, whereas those of the species Pratylenchus goodyei would be expected to be negatively impacted by such drier climates (I. van den Bergh pers. commun.). FOC TR4 severity would also be expected to decrease with increasing temperatures, as these are likely to promote plant growth (Brake et al. 1995; Mak et al. 2004). Although not climatically driven, the severity of BBTV is also expected to increase with time (P. van Asten pers. commun.).

882   883   884  

D. 1.

885   886   887   888   889   890   891   892   893   894   895   896   897   898   899   900   901   902   903   904   905   906  

Production. Citrus of various species (Citrus sp.) is produced in 140 countries. Approximately 47 million t of citrus will be produced in non-US tropical and subtropical regions in 2012. Brazil and China are the top non-US citrus producers. Brazil exports the majority of juice, approximately 12.7 million t, with in-country production of 18.2 million t. China will produce approximately 10 million t with minimal exports (USDA, NASS 2012). In the northern hemisphere, citrus production will expand into more northern latitudes due to both reduced winter damage risk and higher growing season temperatures in the current production areas that affect both plant physiology, disease and insects populations. According to Duan et al. (2010), in the northern and western subtropics of China, freeze injuries in the winter are expected to decline resulting in more stable production. In the southern subtropics high temperature extremes and gradual temperature increases will result in yield and quality reduction, due to heat stress and high temperature related disorders. Because of changes of precipitation caused by temperature changes, the winter and June precipitation in the subtropics are predicted to decline in the future but rainfall in other months will increase to various degrees (Tang et al. 2008). The predicted precipitation variation will mitigate, to some degree, the arid regions’ water shortage but increase precipitation in the pluvial areas of South China and Sichuan Basin will be excessive resulting in water logged soils and reduced citrus pollination. Sugiura and Yokozawa (2004) simulated climate change impacts on ‘Satsuma’ mandarin (Citrus unshiu Marc.) in Japan and predicted that the favorable production regions will gradually move northward. By 2060s, the favorable areas for production will possibly move from the southern coastal sites to inland areas of western and southern Japan, the plains of Kanto and the littoral zones of the Japan Sea in the central and western Japan and in southern Tohoku.

907   908   909   910   911   912   913   914   915   916  

By 2030, annual precipitation in Australia is expected to remain stable in the far north and decrease by 2–5% over most of southern and eastern Australia, particularly in winter and spring (Aurambout et al. 2009). By 2070, precipitation ranges are projected to be larger and more variable. The range of annual precipitation change for low to high emission scenarios, respectively, is projected to be from −20% or −30% up to +10% or +20% in central, eastern and northern areas. In the south, the projected change varies between −30% and +5% with a best estimate of −10%. Projected rainfall decreases in the south-west in winter and spring could be as low as −30% or −40%, adversely affecting production. In Spain, simulation of citrus yield in the arid and semi-arid Cordoba and Murcia regions indicated increasing yield with increasing temperature change up to 5ºC for the period of 2071-2100 (Iglesias et al. 2010) and substantial

 

Citrus Tropical Regions

28     917   918   919   920   921   922   923   924  

increase the amount of water needed for irrigation due to increased air temperature. In areas where citrus crops are grown, the competition for water is already an acute problem in Spain. In Italy, the water deficit of the entire Apulia territory in southern Italy is projected to increase by 30% by the end of century (Kapur et al. 2010). The net irrigation requirement for citrus production is expected to increase 48% during this period. Separate from increased temperature, elevated CO2will increase citrus yield. Sour orange trees responded to elevated CO2 of 300 ppm above ambient with a 70% increase in fruit number and yield but size was not affected (Kimball et al. 2007).

925   926   927   928   929   930   931   932   933   934   935   936   937   938   939   940   941   942   943   944   945   946   947   948   949   950   951   952   953   954   955   956   957   958   959   960  

Insects. The Asiatic citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri, Hemiptera: Psyllidae]) does not occur in Australia, but if introduced would pose a major threat to the viability of the Australian citrus industry and to native Citrus species. The Australian climate has been assessed as suitable for establishment and spread of the psyllid. Historical temperatures confirm that D. citri could survive in more than 50% of Australia’s citrus growing regions were it to become established (Beattie 2002). Annual average temperature increases of approximately 1ºC (0.7-0.9ºC in coastal areas and 1.0-1.2◦C inland) are projected by 2030 for a mid-range (SRES-A1B) emission scenario (Naki´cenovi´c and Swart 2000). The effect of warming is projected to be lower in winter than in other seasons, and on the coasts as opposed to inland, with the exception of northwest Western Australia. Aurambout et al. (2009) modeled the impact of climate change on the behavior, distribution and breeding potential Asiatic citrus psyllid; one of two known vectors of huanglongbing (citrus greening) caused by a phloem-limited bacterium, Candidatus liberibacter asiaticus. They modeled three time frames (1990, 2030, and 2070) and demonstrated that the increasing temperatures projected under climate change will affect the timing and flush duration of new citrus growth necessary for psyllid development throughout Australia. Flushing will start progressively earlier as the temperature increases and be of shorter duration. There will also be a gradual southward expansion of shorter flush durations. Increasing temperatures will impact D. citri directly through alteration of its temperature dependent development cycle and indirectly by altering the host flushing cycle. Under 1970–2000 average climatic conditions for the location of Narrandera, New South Wales, the first flush starts on the 62nd day of simulation and lasts 94 days, the second flush starts on day 213 and lasts 26 days and the third flush starts on day 250 and lasts 27 days . If the daily temperatures for the same location are increased by the worst case scenario of 6ºC, the first flush would start 58 days earlier and last 92 days (shortened by 2 days), the second flush would start 57 days earlier and last 17 days (shortened by 9 days) and the third flush would start 71 days earlier and last only 13 days (shortened by 14 days). Results averaged for Australia indicated that D. citri adults will emerge 6.1 days earlier in 2030 (18 Sept.) than in 1990 (24 Sept.) and 18 days earlier in 2070 (6 Sept,). This advancement in adult emergence is consistent with the predicted advancement in spring flush emergence. The occurrence of warmer temperatures during the growing season will shorten the time taken for the psyllid to complete its life cycle, potentially leading to more generations being produced. However, warmer temperatures during the growing season will shorten the time necessary for soft tissues to harden, thereby decreasing the amount of time available for the D. citri to reproduce and multiply. Aurambout et al. (2009) demonstrated that reduced availability of young citrus growth will negatively affect the capacity of D. citri to reproduce, leading to the production of fewer egg clutches. The trend could be different if more than three flushes per year were produced. For

 

29     961   962   963   964   965   966  

example, in Darwin, Northern Territory, natural flushing cycles are relatively continuous from the beginning of the wet season in October until the end of the wet season in April providing more breeding surfaces and time for D. citri to reproduce. The risk of establishment by D. citri is projected to decrease under increasing temperatures, due to shortened intervals when it can feed on new leaf flushes. However, the southern coastline of Australia could become more suitable for D. citri than projected under current temperatures.

967   968   969   970   971   972   973   974   975   976   977   978   979   980   981   982   983   984   985   986   987   988  

Climate has a major influence not only on the parasite-host association, but also on interspecific competition between scale parasitoids in citrus production (Benassy 1961). Direct or indirect climatic influences on the host scale insects or the parasites are important factors in the natural enemy’s effectiveness because the dynamics of the same species may vary considerably under different weather regimes (Huffaker et al. 1971; Huffaker and Gutierrez 1990; Rochat and Gutierrez 2001). Climate change will alter the parasite composition in citriculture. Aphytis melinus is considered a superior competitor in the field because it is better adapted to dry and hot climates (Rosen and DeBach 1979). The displacement of Aphytis species by A. melinus has been related to climate adaptability and to other biological differences between species (Kfir and Luck 1979; Huffaker 1990). There is a direct relationship between temperature and humidity of one area and the dominant Aphytis species. Cooler winter temperatures and mild summers are the main differences between Valencia citriculture and other citrus areas where A. melinus has totally displaced A. chrysomphali. Kfir and Luck (1984) suggested that susceptibility of A. chrysomphali to high temperatures and low relative humidity was probably the main reason it was replaced by A. melinus in California. Sorribas et al. (2010) found that dry areas with hot summer temperatures are preferred by A. melinus, which is able to complete the displacement of A. chrysomphali, but areas with mild summer temperatures have a significant abundance of A. chrysomphali. In addition, this parasitoid usually appears near coastal or humid zones in Florida, Cyprus, Australia, or Uruguay (Muma 1959; Orphanides 1984; Dahms and Smith 1994; Asplanato and Garcia-Marı´2002) where summer temperatures are milder and humidity higher than in inland areas. Climate change may alter the composition and distribution of these key scale predators in all citriculture areas.

989   990   991   992   993   994   995   996   997   998   999   1000   1001   1002  

Disease. As reviewed by Ghini et al. (2011), Jesus Ju´nior et al. (2008) analyzed the impact of climate change on citrus diseases in Sa˜o Paulo State and predicted that citrus variegated chlorosis (CVC) (Xylella fastidiosa), would increase in the central and southern regions of Brazil because the production of shoots in spring and summer would increase with increased temperature, stimulating the population of leafhoppers (Dilobopterus costalimai, Oncometopia facialis and Acrogonia sp.), the primary vectors of the bacterium . The abundance of leafhoppers will also increase with rising temperatures. There is a projected reduction in precipitation in these citrus production areas and CVC symptoms will be aggravated by increased temperature and more frequent periods of water deficit. The projected reduction in precipitation could also stimulate the early development of the mite populations (Brevipalpus phoenicis) and consequently increase the viral disease, citrus leprosis. Damage from citrus black spot (Guignardia citricarpa) and floral rot (Colletotrichum acutatum) is expected to increase with rising temperatures (Jesus Ju´ nior et al. 2008). Unfortunately, the efficacy and stability of

 

30     1003   1004  

biocontrol agents will likely diminish with climate change, since high temperature is one of the problems with applying antagonists (Garrett et al. 2006).

1005   1006  

2.

United States

1007   1008   1009   1010   1011   1012   1013   1014   1015   1016   1017   1018  

Production. The U.S. is expected to produce 11.7 million t of citrus in 2012 with California producing 3.9 million t primarily for the fresh market, Florida producing 7.4 million t for the juice market and 0.7 million t will be exported (USDA, NASS 2012). Tubiello et al. (2002) simulated US citrus production in future climate change scenarios. Overall, yields increased 20– 50%, while irrigation water use decreased in many locations due to reduced freeze prevention irrigation. Crop loss due to freezing was 65% lower on average in 2030 and 80% lower in 2090, at all sites. In the primary citrus production areas, Miami, FL, experienced the smallest increases, 6–15% and the other major production sites in AZ, TX and CA, increases were 20-30% in 2030 and 50-70% in 2090. All sites experienced a decrease in crop loss from freezing. Potential for northward expansion of US citrus production was small because results indicated that in 2030 and 2090 northern sites of current marginal production would continue to have lower fruit yield, higher risk of crop loss due to freezing, and lower water availability than the southern sites.

1019   1020   1021   1022   1023   1024  

Insect pests. The geographic range of the Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly, Ceratitis capitata) is currently restricted to more southern regions of California (Messenger and Flitters 1954), but there are incipient medfly populations in southern California (Carey 1996) with occasional infestations and winter dieback in more northern areas. The medfly would likely expand northward into current fruit-growing regions (Gutierrez et al. 2006).

1025   1026   1027   1028   1029  

In CA, DeBach and Sundby (1963) introduced a series of parasitoid species to control California red scale on citrus. These releases resulted in a sequence of climatically adapted parasitoids displacing each other in some areas. This displacement occurred until each species established itself in the subset of Californian environments most favorable for its development. These and other biological control successes could be jeopardized by climate change.

1030   1031   1032   1033   1034   1035   1036  

Water Use. In California, Miller et al. (2003) simulated the hydrology for Sacramento, American, and Merced Basins and predict an early season increase in snowmelt from 2010 to 2099 with earlier snowmelt seasons with a slower river flow rate later in the season. These reductions in growing season irrigation water will greatly limit perennial horticultural crop production in the arid and semi-arid crop production regions unless sufficient water is stored in reservoirs. The impact will be most on late season crops.

1037   1038  

E.

 

Cacao

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1. Production. The cocoa tree (Theobroma cacao) is cultivated in the humid tropics, the vast majority of which is used in the food industry for the production of chocolate and powder. A small proportion is also sold as cocoa butter, which is used in the pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries. Cacao is of international importance as a smallholder crop (5–6 million farmers) with only about 5% of the world crop (annual total = 3.6 million t) produced on plantations (Carr and Lockwood 2011). Like coffee, cocoa is a crop of major importance for smallholder livelihoods and ecosystems in many tropical countries; as an internationally traded commodity, cocoa contributes to the livelihoods of an estimated 40–50 million people (World-Cocoa-Foundation 2010). In the year 2008/2009, world production was worth approximately nine billion U.S. dollars (ICCO 2008). Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire were the largest producer countries accounting for 53% of world production (ICCO 2008). Cocoa contributed 7.5% to the Gross Domestic Product of Côte d'Ivoire and 3.4% to that of Ghana (FAO 2008). Cacao occupies 2.4 million ha in Côte d'Ivoire and 1.5 million ha in Ghana, more than in any other country in the world (Franzen and Borgerhoff Mulder 2007). Cacao is an understory rainforest tree and is known to be sensitive to drought; though quantitative information on crop water relations from mature, field-grown plants is scarce (Carr and Lockwood 2011).

1055   1056   1057   1058   1059   1060   1061   1062   1063   1064   1065   1066   1067   1068  

Until recently, climatic forecasts for the West African rainforest belt have been highly uncertain. Brown and Crawford (2009 ) showed that West Africa in general and the Sahelian region in particular are characterized by some of the most variable climates on the planet. Climate variability seems to have become particularly pronounced in the 20th century. A period of unusually high rainfall from the 1930s to the 1950s was followed by extended drought for the next three decades (Brown and Crawford 2009 ). This decrease in average rainfall and the high variability has negatively impacted the region´s climatic suitability for cocoa especially during the 1970s and 1980s (Leonard and Oswald 1996). However, the drying pattern has not been homogeneous throughout the region and data from Nigeria suggest that it was relatively more pronounced in the savannah than in the rainforest region where cocoa is grown (Oguntunde et al. 2011). Carr and Lockwood (2011) point out that since cocoa is a drought-sensitive crop, and a large proportion of the world’s cocoa is grown in parts of the tropics having a distinct alternation between wet and dry seasons, it is to be expected that the water relations of cocoa would have been the subject of research, which however is not the case.

1069   1070   1071   1072   1073   1074   1075   1076   1077   1078  

Flower production is primarily controlled, either directly or indirectly by climatic factors (Alvim 1966; Mohr and Schopfer 1994). Omolaja (2009) showed that flowering intensity was regulated by temperature and rainfall and varied across different T. cocoa clones. Flowering is inhibited by water stress but synchronous flowering occurs soon after the dry season ends (Carr and Lockwood 2011). Genotypes differ in the sensitivity of fruit growth to changes in air temperature, which can affect time to fruit ripening, fruit losses from cherelle wilt, final pod size, bean size and lipid content (Daymond and Hadley 2008). Leaf and shoot growth occur in a series of flushes, which are synchronized by the start of the rains following a dry season (or an increase in temperature), alternating with periods of “rest” (Carr and Lockwood 2011). Under progressive climate change flowering, fruiting and leaf and shoot growth are likely to be altered significantly.

1079   1080   1081  

Läderach et al. (2011) show that under the IPCC’s (2007) SRES-A2 (business as usual) scenario, the average rainfall in the cocoa belt of Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire is predicted to decrease only insignificantly from 1467 mm now to 1455 mm in 2050, with most of the change

 

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occurring after 2030 (Plate 3). In 2030 (data not shown), the precipitation is predicted to decrease by a range of 7 - 20 mm in most parts of Côte d'Ivoire and to increase by a range of 5 21 mm in southern Ghana (coastal regions). Thus, southern Ghana will initially become slightly wetter, before a weak drying tendency prevails throughout most of the cocoa region (Plate 3). In 2050, the earliest and strongest decrease in precipitation will be seen in the west of the region, with decreases ranging from 20 mm to 39 mm in Bafing, Worodougou, Valle du Bandama and Zanzan in Côte d'Ivoire, then gradually expanding to Brong Ahafo in Ghana. In Ghana, the coastal region, outside of the core area of cocoa production, is predicted to experience an increase in precipitation by 20 to 30 mm. The maximum number of cumulative dry months, defined as the maximum number of months with less than 100 mm precipitation, is predicted to decrease from 4 months now to 3 months in 2050.

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Mean annual temperature is predicted to increase by 2.1ºC on average by 2050 passing through a 1.2ºC increase in 2030 (Plate 4). The predicted increase in temperature by 2050 is between 1.7 to 2.1ºC for the southern (forest) regions and up to 2.5ºC for the northern (savanna) regions in both countries. The mean daily temperature range is predicted to remain almost constant with 9.1ºC now and 9ºC in 2050.

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Läderach et al. (2012) further showed using Maxent, a crop suitability model, that under the predicted climate changes the climatically most suitable cocoa areas in Ghana are mainly in the Eastern, Central, Ashanti, Western and southern Brong Ahafo regions, while in Côte d'Ivoire they are mainly in Sud-Comoe, Agneby, Moyen Comoe, Sud-Bandama, and Fromager regions (Plate 5). For 2050 the model predicts an overall decrease in the climatic suitability of the current growing regions (Plate 6). This would be expected since the temperature mediated increase in evapotranspiration is not compensated by increasing rainfall, increasing the risk of drought to which cacao is very susceptible (Anim-Kwapong and Frimpong 2006). The coefficient of variance (CV) for the 2050 bioclimatic variables ranged from 0 to 25% suggesting reasonable agreement among climate models (Plate 7). Most affected by the suitability decrease are the southern Brong Ahafo and Volta Regions in Ghana, and Lagunes, Moyen Cavally, Marahoue and Haut Sassandra in Côte d'Ivoire. Parts of these areas will become marginal or even unsuitable for cocoa, while other parts will remain suitable though less so than they are today. Apart from the southern parts of Bas Sassandra in Côte d´Ivoire and some marginal areas in the southern part of the Western Region in Ghana, there are only a few areas where the model predicts improving climatic conditions for growing cocoa. These are generally in hilly terrain, such as the Mampongtin Range and Atewa Hills (also called the Kwahu Plateau) in Ghana, and hilly parts of Western Côte d´Ivoire and reflect the increase in average temperature by up to 2°C (Fig, 5). Läderach et al. (2011) also showed that negative suitability changes were mostly driven by the increase in potential evapotranspiration (ETP), especially during July to September (the coldest quarter, which includes the short dry season), possibly because of the sensitivity of pod growth during this phase to drought. This was followed in statistical significance by a variable related to temperature increase, which is also the driver of increased ETP. For the relatively few data points that showed increasing climatic suitability, this increase was most highly correlated with an increase in the seasonality of the climate (measured as the CV of monthly rainfall within a given year). These areas are mostly in the wettest, southwestern corners of the two countries were an increase in seasonality of rainfall may be beneficial for the cocoa crop (Plate 6).

 

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F.

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1. Production. The genus Coffea, includes more than 90 species (Davis et al. 2006) but only two species are commercially viable: Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) and Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora). Arabica grows in mid-elevation (600-1500 m depending on the latitude) regions in the tropics and yields a smooth, slightly acidic beverage after roasting, whereas at lowerelevation (0-800 m) Robusta is more tolerant to growth in full sun and produces a relatively harsher cup of coffee with higher caffeine content (Charrier et al. 2009). Because the Arabica species produces higher quality coffee, it generates more economic value; in contrast, Robusta generates higher yields per plant than Arabica, but produces beans that horticultural markets generally consider of lower quality and economic value. In this chapter we are to focusing mainly on Arabica coffee.

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The coffee trade generates approximately USD 15 billion worth of exports and employs approximately 25 million farmers; it is therefore an important revenue generator for developing countries (ICO, 2011). Furthermore coffee production provides a variety of environmental benefits such as water storage, carbon sequestration, biodiversity, and soil conservation to downstream populations (Läderach et al. 2010a).

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Coffee growth, photosynthesis, and production require specific ecological and physical environmental characteristics, limiting the specific regions in which coffee is grown. For example, coffee is dependent on seasonal rainfall in the tropics both for production of flower buds (following a drought) and flowering (following a dry-season rain) (Cannell 1976; Magalhaes and Angelocci 1976; Carr 2001). Water availability, as well as small changes in temperatures, can affect coffee photosynthesis (Nunes et al. 1968; Cannell 1976). Because coffee is not frost resistant (DaMatta 2004), the upper elevations and latitudes at which coffee can be cultivated are limited. Likely due to its evolution in the understory of tropical forests, the maximum photosynthetic rate of Arabica plants are at moderate temperatures and under moderate levels of shade (Nutman 1937; Lin et al. 2008) and thus it has traditionally been cultivated as an understory crop. Understory crops are trees, shrubs, vines, or other plants that thrive in the environment under the canopy of taller trees, are often grown within orchards, and may also be cultivated in natural forests or conservation areas (Davis et al. 2006).

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Flowering is a complex sequence of biochemical, physiological and morphological events that are affected by several factors such as temperature, light, soil, air, water availability, carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, crop load and genotype (Rena et al. 1994). Under natural conditions, rest of flower buds is often broken by the first rains in the season following a dry period (Barros et al. 1999). The development of all coffee fruits within a single tree is separated temporally over several sequential periods of growth periods (2-4). Coffee flowering and fruit development are phased to maximize the likelihood that the fruits will expand during the rainy period and after a flush of new leaves (Cannell 1985). Rapid vegetative growth and fruit development appear to occur at different times. Farmers and meteorological stations report shifts in dry and rainy seasons which significantly affect flowering, fruiting and plant growth.

 

Coffee

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Climate models predict that the mean annual temperature in Mesoamerica will rise 22.5ºC. Honduras, Mexico, and Nicaragua will likely experience the greatest increases whereas the increase in Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala is predicted to be less (see Table 3 and Plate 8). With increasing temperatures, areas at higher altitudes become suitable for producing coffee and currently marginal areas will become unsuitable. For example the optimum coffeeproducing areas in Nicaragua are currently at an altitude of 1200 m; by 2050 the optimum increases to 1600 m. Consequently, for an increase of 2.5ºC, coffee growing areas have to move 300-400 meters up in altitude. At the national scale, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Nicaragua have the highest percentage of land affected most drastically, with drops in suitability of 40% or greater.

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Models predict lower annual rainfall in most of Mesoamerica. Honduras and Nicaragua will experience the most drastic changes, decreases on the order of -5% to -10%. Reduced water supply could constrain coffee cultivation and some methods of processing. Farmers already confirm that rainfall is becoming erratic and exhibits greater extremes, which is significantly impacting coffee, whose production cycle is highly dependent on rainfall patterns. Coffee flowering is triggered by the first rainfalls at the onset of the rainy season, but if precipitation drops off or becomes too heavy, both coffee flowers and fruits may drop from the tree. This stunted fruit growth would result in fewer, smaller beans of lower quality, which in turn fetch lower prices. Harvesting often represents the majority of production costs, therefore erratic flowering and ripening cycles require additional harvesting cycles, which raises costs.

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2. Quality. The climatic factors most often quoted in literature to influence coffee are average annual rainfall, rainfall distribution, humidity and temperature. Temperature is the most decisive factor; this is also expressed in the fact that in many countries, altitude, as a proxy for temperature, is used to distinguish quality grades. An optimum annual average temperature of 18-22 °C is generally quoted (Sylvain 1965; Guharay et al. 2000; COFENAC 2003b). Above or below these temperatures, the yield and quality of C. arabica is greatly reduced (DaMatta 2004). Diurnal temperature range is known to have strong influence on coffee quality (Illy 2001). Griffin (2001) states that a greater diurnal range promotes the production of sugars in fruits in general. Consequently, large diurnal ranges in temperature may increase the sweetness of a coffee. Njoka and Mochoge (1997b) state that Arabica coffee requires temperatures ranging from a daily maximum of 32ºC to a minimum of 7ºC. The minimum diurnal range should be about 19ºC. Annual rainfall where coffee is grown varies according to the region, ranging from 600 mm in Zimbabwe (Naylor 1990) to 4000 mm in Ecuador (Cofenac 2003a). Rainfall where high quality is grown varies less, ranging from 1000 mm (Njoka and Mochoge 1997a) to a little over 1700 mm (Avelino et al. 2006). Apart from total annual rainfall, its distribution is also important. Ibarra (1986) states that in Honduras, the best coffee is produced where the wet seasons are as long as nine months. Other authors recommend a dry season of no more than 3 or 4 months. Also rainfall distribution during berry development is crucial, since it directly influences harvest quality (Suarez 1979). Venkataramanan (2003) states that inadequate rainfall during berry development causes water stress in the plants and results in physical defects of the beans. In particular, inadequate rainfall during the stage of rapid swelling of the berries (42-102 days after flowering) and first endosperm filling stage (117-152 days) can affect normal berry development

 

35     1209   1210   1211   1212  

and may result in small beans and a lower percentage of best quality beans (Venkataramanan 2003). High quality coffee beans develop when the relative humidity is 70 to 95 % (Enríquez 1993; Fischersworring and Robkamp 2001), consequently periods of hot dry weather will decrease bean quality.

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Higher ambient temperatures speed up the ripening of coffee berries, leading to poorer cup quality. This is because important components of coffee quality such as sugars, amino acids and fats don't have sufficient time to accumulate, which results in poorer quality (Vaast et al. 2006). High value Arabica coffee, especially the type that meets the qualifications of more lucrative horticultural markets, requires lower temperatures. Areas currently growing Arabica may therefore need to be replaced by (lower value) Robusta coffee, cattle pasture, and food crops. Higher quality beans fetch higher prices, but there are also other methods to secure better returns, including “Denomination of Origin” (DO) status. As coffee in current DO zones become less suitable for producing high-quality coffee producers in such regions may lose DO certification (Läderach et al. 2010b).

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3. Insects. There is very little research published on the effect of climate change on coffee pest and disease except for the coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei). Data from Jimma (Ethiopia) revealed that before 1984 it was too cold for H. hampei to complete even one generation per year, but thereafter, because of rising temperatures in the area, 1–2 generations per year/coffee season could be completed (Jaramillo et al. 2009).. Jaramillo et al. (2011) also predicted the impact of progressive climate change on H. hampei in East Africa. H. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten (Jaramillo et al. 2011).

1235   1236  

IV. ADAPATION.

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Climate change presents new environmental challenges to the adaptive and coping capacity of both large and small perennial crop growers, and processors, while raising new issues for researchers, consumers, and policy makers. Growers and processors are always adapting management practices to reduce risks associated with weather variability but further transformational-type changes will be required to meet the new demands of climate change in the coming decades (Howden et al. 2007). The background information and case studies of selected perennial crops presented here (see sect. III) clearly indicate that many production systems will require profound changes in the next century, particularly those located in marginal climate ranges. Effective science-based adaptation to the direct and indirect effects of climate change will require capitalizing on any opportunities while minimizing or avoiding any negative impacts. Adaptation can, however, happen in different ways, largely depending on the magnitude of the impact and the spatio-temporal scale at which the adaptation measures are being

 

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developed and/or implemented. Adaptation can either anticipate the production system needs or react to the change.

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A. General concepts of climate change adaptation

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Adaptation to climate change is, undoubtedly, the final target of any impact prediction (Challinor et al. 2012; Moser and Ekstrom 2010). The IPCC (IPCC 2001b) has defined adaptation as: “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation” (IPCC 2001b)

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Implicit in the IPCC definition of adaptation is the scale at which the adjustment can happen. To this aim, a more comprehensive definition has been attempted by Moser and Ekstrom (2010). This view considers the fact that not only adjustments, but also longer term transformations to systems may be required:

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“Adaptation involves changes in social-ecological systems in response to actual and expected impacts of climate change in the context of interacting nonclimatic changes. Adaptation strategies and actions can range from short-term coping to longer-term, deeper transformations, aims to meet more than climate change goals alone, and may or may not succeed in moderating harm or exploiting beneficial opportunities” (Moser and Ekstrom 2010)

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Adaptation can be seen as an iterative process that starts from the development of knowledge about a system and its problems (i.e. quantifying impacts). This knowledge is then used to develop and select options, which are finally implemented and evaluated (Figure 2). Such iterative process can happen at a variety of scales, ranging from seasonal to multi-decadal (Howden et al. 2007; Moser and Ekstrom 2010; Park et al. 2012).

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Figure 3 illustrates the different types of adaptive responses in agriculture as the degree of climate change increases. In agricultural systems, farmers constantly change their management practices in response to climate and climate-related stresses (i.e. pests and diseases). These adjustments can be considered as short-term coping strategies and are typically incremental and messy (Moser and Ekstrom 2010). Such adjustments may include changes in the amount and timing of fertiliser, irrigation and fungicide applications, changes in sowing dates, and changes in varieties.

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The degree of climate change is expected to be higher in the future (Joshi et al. 2011). Adaptation planning at larger time scales needs to consider further and more substantial changes to the system (Moser and Ekstrom 2010; Park et al. 2012). Therefore, the approach of relying solely on incremental short-term adjustments may not be successful with long lead times. This is because there is a degree of change in climate beyond which the available short-term options for a farmer may all not work or because the negative impacts of climate change may arise at rates

 

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and in a multi-dimensional fashion that would make it difficult for farmers to respond. For example, both the genetic variation within a given crop’s gene pool and the speed at which climate-adaptation beneficial genes can be incorporated in existing varieties have limits (Reynolds et al. 2011).

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Systems adaptation (Figure 3) involves changes in the whole cropping system such as changing the crops in the rotation, diversifying the system to include a wider range of species with diverse uses (i.e. agro-forestry), or optimise production at the maximum extent possible through precision agriculture (Rickards and Howden 2012).

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The last type of adaptation (Figure 3) would be needed when a given farming system becomes completely economically or environmentally unsustainable. Transformational adaptation planning is required when the degree of climate change is expected to cause an irreversible loss to the system object of analysis (Moser and Ekstrom 2010; Rickards and Howden 2012). In that sense, it is designed to avoid severe impacts of climate change and/or capitalise of increasingly positive effects that can arise from a system shift (Park et al. 2012). Transformational changes in a cropping system can occur in different dimensions and often overlap with system-level adjustments (Figure 3). Transformational adaptation may include livelihood changes such as changes from cropping to livestock systems (Jones and Thornton 2009), community migration, or a complete change in the focus of the system (e.g. from an agricultural system to a national natural park) (Rickards and Howden 2012).

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The time at which each type of change is required in a given farming system largely depends upon the type of system. Perennial systems are expected to substantially benefit from longer-term transformational planning, given the high costs associated with establishing these cropping systems. Annual rotations are somewhat more flexible, because crops can be changed in a yearly basis. However, socio-economic and market-related barriers would be expected in both cases (Moser and Ekstrom 2010). For more comprehensive reviews on adaptation the reader is referred to Howden et al. (2007), Moser and Ekstrom (2010), and Park et al. (2012). Of particular relevance to transformational adaptation is the review of Rickards and Howden (2012).

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B. System-Level Adaptation Strategies in perennial cropping systems

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1. Genotypic adaptation

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We focus primarily on genotypic adaptation as it is among the most promising adaptation strategies (Butler and Huybers 2012). Genetic variation within a crop’s gene pool can, to a large extent, allow the adaptation of agricultural systems. On one hand, promising but already existing varieties can be used to replace currently growing ones. On the other hand, specific traits and/or genes can be incorporated into existing varieties by means of crosses or genetic engineering (Hajjar and Hodgkin 2007). Genes to tolerate drought, excessive heat, and to resist pests and diseases can be found in both existing landraces (Beaver et al. 2003; Reynolds et al. 2011), and in wild progenitors of crops (Guarino and Lobell 2011; Hajjar and Hodgkin 2007; Jansky et al. 2009). Crop improvement networks have historically focused on incorporating stress-tolerance

 

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and/or disease-resistance genes into high-yielding cultivars (Reynolds et al. 2011; Stamp and Visser 2012) as a way to decrease production costs and close yield gaps (Reynolds et al. 2011).

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Genotypic adaptation involves both the replacement of currently used cultivars by those existing within a given neighborhood (i.e. varietal shifts) and also the development of new cultivars through the incorporation of traits that may become beneficial under certain degrees of climate change (i.e. developing climate-smart crops). Thus, genotypic adaptation is relevant in the context of both short-term adjustments and systems adaptation (Jarvis et al. 2011). Breeding programs are currently challenged with having to set priorities based on climate change impacts predictions. Decisions of which traits to breed and by when would varieties need to hold such traits are expected to be largely influenced by the type (e.g. increase in mean, increase in extreme events), direction (e.g. drier and warmer, wetter and warmer), and extent (how warmer, how drier) of the predicted climatic changes in a given area (Stamp and Visser 2012).

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Modelling studies have attempted to quantify the benefits of genotypic adaptation. Waterstress adaptation, in particular, can account for the majority of negative climate change effects (Bryan et al. 2009; Hawkins et al. 2012). Challinor et al. (2010) found that adapting Chinese wheat varieties to high temperature and water stress thresholds during anthesis can reduce the percent of failed seasons under future scenarios by 30% and 50%, respectively. Jarvis et al. (2012) report that in addition to cassava’s great potential for adaptation, capitalising benefits from further improving its drought and cold tolerance may bring substantial benefits under future climate scenarios. Studies of these types are scarce or non-existent for perennial systems, but they provide examples and models for adaptation studies and breeding programs in horticultural crops.

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2. Other adaptation strategies

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A review of European (Iglesias et al. 2012), United States (NCA 2012), and global (Foley et al. 2011; Howden et al. 2007) adaptation options at the local farm level included changes in crop management (e.g., cultivar selection, timing of field operations, management of landscape biodiversity, and integrated pest management), improved water management (e.g., floodplain and wetlands restoration, efficient irrigation, and water harvesting), and a sustainable use of plant genetic resources (Dusen et al. 2007; Burke et al. 2009). These adaptation strategies address the needs for perennial fruit crops in both temperate and tropical climates.

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Under future scenarios, increases in extremes of temperatures (i.e. warm day occurrence and heat wave length) are expected (Orlowsky and Seneviratne,2012; Thibeault et al. 2010). Technologies to reduce the impact of stresses that occur during specific times of the year will thus be needed under global warming. High temperatures reduce plant productivity even in the current environment. Perennial horticultural crop growers have a wide assortment of established management tools to adjust for climate change and increasing growing season temperatures including: crop load adjustment, canopy pruning/training/spacing, and irrigation. While very water use inefficient, overhead irrigation effectively buffers canopy temperature and is effective in frost mitigation. Shade in coffee has shown to be beneficial in offsetting the effects of high temperatures (Schroth et al. 2009). Technology is being developed that reduces canopy and fruit temperature through reflective particle films (Glenn 2009) and provides increased yield and

 

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quality with increasing growing season temperatures without the use of additional irrigation. Other approaches such as the use of endophytic symbionts that reduce crop environmental stresses in conjunction with genetic or technological adaptations are also being developed (Bae et al. 2009; Kim and Cregg 2012; Knoth et al. 2012; Redman et al. 2011).

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Adaptation options for managing crop pests and diseases in the absence of resistant genotypes will likely require increased use of pesticides. This will need to be done in a sustainable way. First, it will require increasing the resilience of agricultural systems to changes in pest pressures by varietal diversification and management of biodiversity at both field and landscape scale. Secondly, a better pest and disease management will be required to prevent pest and disease resistance to chemical control agents. These may include the development of new pesticide products, and the implementation of pest and/or disease forecasting tools for better targeting applications to reduce environmental impacts.

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3. Constraints and trade-offs related to adaptation in perennial systems

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Modeling outcomes need to be appropriately scaled (either up- or down-scaled) in order to provide information that allows growers, processors, researchers and policy makers to develop assessment tools that can help in targeting adaptation responses. Models ought to be treated as tools from which information can be extracted (Challinor et al. 2012). Such information, along with any relevant uncertainties needs to be appropriately communicated to the relevant stakeholders. Communicating uncertain (and potentially risky) outcomes has been identified as one of the main barriers to adaptation (Mearns 2010).

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The process of adaptation may not be straightforward, as a given adaptation strategy may present trade-offs. More specifically, it is difficult to develop and/or implement adaptation strategies to increase production and or sustain crop productivity while at the same time reducing the environmental footprint or mitigating climate change (Foley et al. 2011). A clear example of this is provided by the wine producers in British Columbia, Canada. This example illustrates the unintended consequences of public policy interacting with local climatic conditions and the consequent environmental and climate-risk related cost (trade-off) (Belliveau et al. 2006). The Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in 1989 changed the market of Canadian wine produced in the Okanagan valley. Prior to the FTA, importation of foreign wines was prohibited and Canadian growers provided sweet red wines to the national market. Following the FTA, the flood of premium foreign wines greatly reduced this market. In response to this market shift, grape producers replaced existing low-quality, but winter-hardy, grape cultivars with more cold-sensitive but higher quality cultivars, with significant sponsorship and subsidies from the government. This change enhanced the wine industry’s domestic and international competitiveness, thereby reducing market risks (wine is now the second highest commodity in the Okanagan valley following apples). This market expansion came at an environmental cost, however, because the premium European cultivars had increased susceptibility to winter injury and high summer temperatures. Producers must irrigate to prevent frost damage in winter, which decreases market competitiveness because it reduces the quality of the grapes in years when it is used. Winter irrigation also increases production costs, the water footprint, disease risks and producers’ vulnerability to water shortages. High summer temperatures (>35 ºC) can delay maturity in an already short growing season as well as reduce wine quality. The strategy of

 

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switching cultivars changed the nature of the system to make it better adapted to the market but simultaneously made it more vulnerable to climatic stresses to which it was previously less sensitive. Whether the strategy of irrigating is viable under future climatic change scenarios will be a matter of serious concern at the local and national level in the coming years.

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In the following subsections, crop-specific climate change related constraints are identified and, where possible, adaptation strategies to address such constraints are reported.

1415  

C. Crop-specific adaptation options

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1. Apples

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Apple production will be limited by climate change and require adaptation to the following factors:

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Advanced Bloom Dates Increase Frequency of Frost Damage. Apple bloom dates have been observed to advance significantly in the major growing areas of Europe (Table 1), the United States, and South Africa, thus increasing the risk of late spring frosts (see Sect. III, A). Technology to protect flowers from freezing temperatures (Wisniewski et al. 2002) and to limit the dependence of spring flowering on winter temperatures (Wisniewski et al. 2011) could mitigate the more variable spring conditions expected in the future.

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Warmer Winters Decrease Chill Accumulation. Limited chill accumulation is not projected to limit apple production in eastern Washington State (Stöckle et al. 2010). In northeastern US, Wolfe et al. (2008) found that a 400 h chilling requirement will continue to be met for most of the NE during this century regardless of emissions scenario. However, cultivars with prolonged cold requirements (1000 or more hours) could be negatively affected, particularly in southern sections of the NE, where less than 50% of years satisfy the chill requirement by the 2050s (high emissions). The adoption and development of lower chill requirement cultivars together with dormancy-breaking chemicals and technology are expected to mitigate the effect of warmer winters.

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Increased Temperature and/or Reduced Precipitation Increase Water Demand. By 2060s the plains of Central Tohoku’s plains in Japan are predicted to be unfavorable for apple cultivation due to increased temperature (see Sect III, A). Water demand is expected to increase in Europe (~50 m3/ha on average) as well as in the South African Cape (Grab and Caparo 2011, also see Sect III, A). Water shortages have been predicted across Washington State in the US (Stöckle et al. 2010). In Washington State water supply was assumed sufficient for irrigated crops, but other studies suggest that it may decrease in many locations due to climate change (Stöckle et al. 2010). Miles et al. (2010) evaluated climate change impacts on the apple industry of Washington State using the IPCC AR4 scenarios downscaled to the state. They projected that the Yakima basin water supply will have shortages 36% of the years compared to the historical

 

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shortfall of 14% in the future 50 years. The effect on apple productivity will be minor with a 3% productivity decrease in the absence of a CO2 response (Stöckle et al. 2010). A CO2 response in apple may negate any adverse temperature effect. Water short years will increase from 14% historically to 36%. They propose that productivity can be maintained over the short term (i.e., 10-20 years) by adjusting production practices, adopting new technologies, improving agricultural water management, and by state-wide monitoring to gather and interpret data on climate change impacts to further aid policy and farm level decisions. In the northeastern US, Wolfe et al (2008) evaluated projections of summer heat stress frequency and determined that summer heat stress will be particularly detrimental to apple production. By the end of century and with higher emissions, short-term droughts are projected to occur as frequently as once per year for much of the NE, and occasional long-term droughts (>6 month) are projected for western upstate NY where perennial horticultural crops are a major industry. New water management and cultural technologies to reduce water needs will be need together with more drought/heat tolerant and water use efficient cultivars. Productive apple systems currently optimize the desired crop load to the leaf area in order to optimize fruit size. However future adaptation may require matching leaf area to available water resources and the growing season potential evapotranspiration. New cultural management tools needed to protect fruit from excessive heat and light may include pruning strategies that increase fruit shading, reflective sprays and shade netting to reduce the heat load, and orchard location strategies that avoid southern exposure (N hemisphere).

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Earlier Pest Development Associated with Increasing Temperatures. Increased pest prevalence and less effective pesticides are expected in the NE of the United States (Wolfe et al. 2008), as well as across the Pacific Northwest (Stöckle et al. 2010) (see Sect III, A). An increase in humidity and frequency of heavy rainfall events is projected for the NE (Frumhoff et al. 2006) which will favor some leaf and root pathogens (Coakley et al. 1999), and the projected increased rainfall frequency (Frumhoff et al. 2006) may reduce the efficacy of contact fungicides requiring more frequent applications. Pest management monitoring systems and targeted pest control methods are needed to mitigate the changing biotic complex of pests. Effective monitoring for new and exotic pests together with targeted pest control and ecologically-based pest management will be needed as production areas move or adjust to the changing complex of biotic pests.

1477   1478   1479   1480   1481   1482   1483   1484  

In summary, Wolfe et al (2008) determined that farmers most vulnerable to climate change impacts will be those without the financial resources to adapt, those unwilling or unable to change their current production system, and those who make poor decisions regarding the type and/or timing of appropriate adaptations. Conversely, the potential beneficiaries will be the growers currently growing or willing to shift to better-adapted crops, those with multi-regional production options such as moving or expanding their operation into more appropriate climates, those who guess correctly about climate and market trends, and those who have the financial resources to implement adaptation strategies in a timely manner.

 

42     1485  

2. Grape

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Grape production and quality will be limited by climate change and require adaptation to the following vulnerability factors:

1488   1489   1490   1491   1492   1493   1494   1495   1496   1497   1498   1499   1500   1501   1502  

Yield and Fruit Quality Reduction due to Warming and Extreme Heat Events. Wine grape production is particularly sensitive to excessive heat stress which can reduce fruit yield and quality. While slightly stressed grapes are known to increase the wine quality, frequent extreme heat stresses reduce acid levels and alter secondary compounds that determine the flavor of wine (White et al. 2009). Furthermore, grape production world-wide has experienced and will continue to experience earlier phenological events, shorter phenological intervals, and longer growing seasons due to increasing overall growing season temperatures. Together with increases in the frequency of extreme heat events, overall warming during the growing season leads to early maturity and could further reduce fruit yield and quality. In particular, U.S. premium wine grape production could be replaced (in roughly 80% of the areas) by cultivars adapted to warmer temperatures which, but of lower quality. In Australia when a median growing season temperature > 21 ºC was used as an indicator of the climate conditions limiting wine quality and wine grape production, 21 of 61 regions were found to exceed the threshold by 2070 (Webb et al. 2007; Hall and Jones 2009).

1503   1504   1505   1506   1507   1508   1509   1510   1511   1512  

Increasing the ability to cope with heat stress is identified as the most critical adaptation “wedge” for wine grape production in the western United States (Diffenbaugh et al. 2011). The growers have been and are likely to continue using various autonomous farm-level adaptation options such as irrigation, canopy management (e.g., particle films as sun screen, evaporative cooling, canopy architecture), switching rootstocks and cultivar, adaptive pest management, and changing row directions (see Fig. 1; Nicholas and Durham 2012). In addition to these autonomous farm-level adaptations, more “planned” adaptation strategies based on informed economic policies will be critical to sustain the agro-economy associated with viticulture and wine throughout the world in a rapidly changing climate (Metzger and Roundsevell 2011).

1513   1514   1515   1516   1517   1518   1519   1520   1521   1522   1523   1524   1525  

Climate, Soils, and Cultivar Mismatch. Climate change is likely to shift the regions in which the climate is favorable for growing specific wine grapes. Since climate is the most important factor determining the wine quality and the link between climate, soils, and cultivar selection is critical for wine ratings, a rapidly changing climate is likely to break the tight union known as “terroir” between the regions of specific climate and soils, grape cultivar, and wine quality especially in the “Old World” wine growing regions of Europe (White et al. 2009). Terroir is a viticultural concept relating the sensory attributes of wine with a combination of climate, soil, cultivar, and cultural practices (Van Leeuwen and Seguin 2006). Changes in the system can alter the terroir and subsequently lead to narrow-niche cultivars no longer being suitable (see Sect. III, B). Detrimental impacts on production and quality have been predicted in several regions of southern Europe, mainly due to increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during the growing season (Malheiro et al. 2010). However, other regions (e.g., northern and high altitude sites in western and central Europe, southern Chile and the Douro region of Portugal) may

 

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benefit from the changing climate (Malheiro et al. 2010; Ruml et al. 2012; Jorquera-Fontena and Orrego-Verdugo 2010; also see Sect. III, B). However, many regions and cultivars are currently at or near the upper bound of their optimal growing season temperature suggesting that further warming will cause mismatches between the site climate, grape cultivar, and wine quality of many well-known wine growing regions (Jones et al. 2005; White et al. 2009). Thus, climate change could potentially aggravate already contentious trade conflicts surrounding terroir (Josling 2006).

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Farm-level adaptations such as introducing water supply by irrigation and cooling technologies may provide short-term solutions for maintaining the “terroir.” Similarly, selection of late ripening genotypes or genotypes that can produce high quality wines under high temperatures within the existing gene pool and cultivars will also be critical mid-term adaptation options (Duchene et al. 2010). Eventually, changing cultivars and shifting production areas (see Fig. 1) may become inevitable in some regions although a majority of winegrowers in the traditional European premium wine producing regions appear to be not amicable to this particular adaptation option (Battaglini et al. 2009). The notion of terroir along with the AOC system (appellation d’origine contrôlée – a French system legally delineating geographical regions with their agricultural products) may have to be reconsidered in a changing climate (Metzger and Rounsevell 2011; White et al. 2009). Wine industry as a whole will likely have to develop novel marketing strategies to promote the concept of novel terroir that bridge the traditional notions of history and culture with new wine products produced from alternative regions and technologies in a rapidly changing climate (White et al., 2009). This type of entrepreneurial and cultural adaption strategy could help mitigating the cascading impacts of climate change on grape production and quality that could evolve into economic, social, and cultural issues and conflicts between wine producing countries around the world (Belliveau et al. 2006). Development of economic and social solutions will be critical for adapting global wine industry to the challenges and for capitalizing on the potential benefits presented by climate change.

1553  

3.

1554   1555  

Musa production and quality will likely be limited by climate change and require adaptation to the following factors:

Bananas and Plantains

1556   1557   1558   1559   1560   1561  

Prolonged Dry Seasons. As mentioned earlier in the chapter (see Sect. III, C), changes in the distribution and decreases in the amount of rainfall in East Africa could pose a severe and additional constraint for highland bananas, which already suffer from drought (Ramirez et al. 2011; van Asten et al. 2011). Poor fruit development is likely to be experienced across West Africa and the lowlands of Latin America, primarily due to drought.

1562   1563   1564   1565  

Bananas (Musa acuminata) are highly sensitive to drought (Stover and Simmonds 1987; Turner et al. 2007) in contrast to plantains (Musa balbisiana) which have greater drought tolerance (Robinson and Saúco 2010). The most effective way to manage drought would be through incorporation of drought-tolerant genes from the B genome of plantains (van Asten et al.

 

44     1566   1567   1568   1569   1570   1571   1572   1573   1574   1575  

2011; Nyombi (2010). However, breeding bananas has proven to be a formidable task due to the seedlessness of banana and the infertile characteristics of the widely grown Cavendish clones (Grimm 2008; D'Hont et al. 2012). Water conservation strategies have been implemented in Costa Rica. These include integrated weed management to improve soil cover, use of pits in between plants to store and preserve water, and incorporation of organic matter into the soil profile. The use of drip irrigation has proven a successful strategy in bananas in Colombia, but the cost of establishing the system remains a constraint for its implementation where banana is not grown for commercial purposes.

1576   1577   1578   1579   1580   1581   1582   1583   1584  

Temperature Extremes Limiting Productivity. Future climatic suitability is predicted to be significantly reduced in several lowlands, the Amazon, northern Colombia, large areas of Central America, and western Africa and benefits have been reported in highlands and Sub-Saharan Africa (Plate 2, also see Sect. III, C). Adaptation strategies in the cropping system to reduce high temperature damage remain unexplored. Under high temperatures, banana leaves fold downwards across the petiole. This reduces leaf temperatures by 7-8°C, and the amount of water transpired (Turner et al. 2007; Turner 1998a). Previous research reports that fruit damage due to high temperatures can be avoided through the use of paper layers in between the bunch and the bunch cover (Turner et al. 2007; Turner 1998b).

1585   1586   1587   1588   1589  

Pest damage. BLS will continue to be an important constraint for banana systems, and particularly for commercial ones (Kema 2009). Currently, roughly one fungicide application per week is done in the banana cropping systems of the humid lands of Latin America. Due to the reproductive characteristics of BLS, it has developed resistance to a large number of fungicides.

1590   1591   1592   1593   1594   1595   1596   1597  

Particular attention must be paid to the management of BLS, as it constitutes a major production cost. Cropping systems in Southern Brazil and Africa where BLS is not a major constraint need to look forward and learn from experiences of other countries where the current disease prevalence levels are high (e.g. Costa Rica, Colombia, and Ecuador) (Ramirez et al. 2008). Currently, the only existing method to control the levels of BLS experienced in the humid lands of Latin America is the applications of fungicides (Kema 2009). However, additional practices such as the removal of infected leaves at early stages may be useful when attempting to reduce the number of pesticide applications in areas where prevalence levels are not extremely high.

1598   1599   1600   1601   1602   1603   1604   1605  

In managing BLS, it is critical that disease forecasting systems are put in place. It has been observed that BLS outbreaks are largely related to rainfall, temperature and humidity of previous weeks or days (Perez-Vicente et al. 2000; Stover 1972). Moreover, the dispersion of the disease is highly dependent on prevalent wind conditions (Stover 1972). Using disease and weather observations it is possible to develop statistical models to predict the evolution and spread of the disease. Bioclimatic predictions can be done using these models and fungicide applications can be applied during early development stages of the pathogen. In this way, further spread and infection would be avoided.

 

45     1606   1607   1608   1609   1610   1611   1612  

Additional options to adapt banana production systems may include changes in crop management, changes in cultivars, genetic improvement and migration to more suitable zones (Ramirez et al. 2011). The future “vision” of more robust Musa systems should be pursued by widening the genetic base by exploring additional sources of genes within the gene pool, while also implementing improved management practices such as more targeted irrigation, shifts to annual or perennial systems with optimised planting dates, and the spread of resilient mixed cropping systems (van Asten et al. 2011).

1613  

4. Citrus

1614   1615   1616   1617   1618  

Citriculture will benefit from increased temperature by reduced freeze damage and crop loss. United States citrus production areas are projected to have yield increases in the range 2050% through 2090 (Tubiello et al. 2002) and citrus production in the northern and western subtropics of China are expected to have more stable production (Duan et al. 2010). In contrast, citriculture will be limited by climate change and require adaptation to the following factors:

1619   1620   1621   1622   1623   1624   1625   1626   1627  

Increased Temperature and/or Reduced Precipitation Increase Water Demand and Reduce Quality. Higher growing season temperatures will likely reduce crop quality. Japanese citrus production will likely move northward due to higher temperatures (Sigiura and Yokozawa 2004). By 2060's, the favorable areas for ‘Satsuma’ mandarin production will possibly move from the southern coastal sites to inland areas of western and southern Japan, the plains of Kanto and the littoral zones of the Japan Sea in the central and western Japan and in southern Tohoku. Potential for northward expansion of US citrus production was small because results indicated that in 2030 and 2090 northern sites of current marginal production would continue to have lower fruit yield, higher risk of crop loss due to freezing, and lower water availability than the southern sites.

1628   1629   1630   1631   1632   1633   1634   1635   1636   1637   1638   1639  

In California, Miller et al (2003) predicted an early season increase in runoff from 2010 to 2099 with earlier snowmelt seasons but with a slower river flow rate later in the season resulting in reduced availability of growing season irrigation water. Fortunately, irrigation needs for frost protection will likely decrease (Tubiello et al. 2002). Decreases in mean rainfall and increases in rainfall volatility are predicted in southern and eastern Australia (Aurambout et al. 2009). In Spain and Italy, net irrigation requirements will likely increase as a result of increased temperatures (Iglesias et al. 2010; Kapur et al. 2010; also see Sect. III, D). The effects of CO2 are expected to increase citrus yields with little effect on water use (Sect. III, D). The principal adaptation will be the movement of the production regions to capitalize on the changing growing season conditions and development of water resources in new production areas as well as more efficient use of current water resources. New rootstocks adapted to local soils may also be needed.

1640   1641   1642   1643   1644   1645  

Earlier Pest Development and New Pests Associated with Increasing Temperatures. In Australia, the risk of establishment by Diaphorina citri is projected to decrease under increasing temperatures due to shortened intervals when it can feed on new leaf flushes. However, the southern coastline of Australia could become more suitable for D. citri than projected under current temperatures (Aurambout et al. 2009). The medfly would likely expand northward into

 

46     1646   1647   1648   1649   1650   1651   1652   1653   1654   1655   1656   1657   1658  

current fruit-growing regions in CA (Gutierrez et al. 2006). Climate change will alter the parasite composition in citriculture because Aphytis melinus will become a superior competitor in the field because it is better adapted to dry and hot climates (Rosen and DeBach 1979). In Brazil, CVC (Xylella fastidiosa), is predicted to increase in the central and southern regions of Brazil because the production of shoots in spring and summer would increase with increased temperature, stimulating the population of leafhoppers (Jesus Junior et al. 2008; Ghini et al. 2011). CVC symptoms will be aggravated by increased temperature and more frequent periods of water deficit. The projected reduction in precipitation could also increase citrus leprosis, whereas higher temperatures could increase damage from citrus black spot and floral rot (Jesus Junior et al. 2008), with little hope that antagonist biocontrol agents will be a feasible solution (Garrett et al. 2006; also see Sect. III, D). As with other perennial systems where diseases are limiting (e.g. apple, Musa), pest and disease monitoring together with effective and ecologicallybased pest management will be needed throughout the 21st century.

1659   1660  

5. Cocoa

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Cocoa production will be limited by climate change and require adaptation policies. Changes in the climatic suitability for growing cacao will be a gradual process and it will not affect all parts of the growing-areas equally. It is however important to start working on adaptation measures and strategies today in order to have solutions ready when needed. There is no reason for farmers, governments and supply chain components to panic but the industry needs to plan ahead. We have identified the following factors as the main constraints to future cocoa production:

1668   1669   1670   1671   1672   1673  

Increased Temperature and Increasing Drought. Future climate scenarios in cocoa growing areas will likely feature increases in transpiration demand and increased drought. Given the susceptibility of the cocoa plants to drought (Anim-Kwapong and Frimpong 2006; Läderach et al. 2011), new cultivars with drought tolerance and heat resistance will be the most successful adaptation. The use of endophytic symbionts is also a promising approach that can accompany crop improvement efforts to reduce drought and heat stresses in cacao plants (Bae et al. 2009).

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Decreased Yield and Quality Compounded by Increased or Changed Insect and Disease Pressure. There is little information regarding the impacts of climate change on yield, quality and pest and disease pressure available. However it is very likely that climate change may have a negative effect on these factors across many regions. Therefore more research is needed to understand the impacts of climate change in order to develop adequate adaptation strategies.

1679  

6. Coffee

1680   1681  

Coffee production will be limited by climate change and require adaptation to the following factors:

1682   1683  

Increased Temperature, Increasing Drought, and Reduced Crop Quality. An optimum annual average temperature for coffee production is 18-22°C (COFENAC 2003b; Guharay et al. 2000;

 

47     1684   1685   1686   1687   1688   1689   1690   1691   1692   1693   1694   1695   1696   1697  

Sylvain 1965). Above or below these temperatures the yield and quality of C. arabica is greatly reduced (DaMatta 2004). Climate models predict that the mean annual temperature in Mesoamerica will rise 2-2.5 ºC. With increasing temperatures areas at higher altitudes become suitable for producing coffee and currently marginal areas will become unsuitable. At the national scale, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Nicaragua have the highest percentage of land affected most drastically, with drops in suitability of 40% or greater. High value Arabica coffee, especially the type that meets the qualifications of more lucrative horticultural markets, requires lower temperatures. Areas currently growing Arabica may therefore need to be replaced by (lower value) Robusta coffee, cattle pasture, and food crops. Higher quality beans fetch higher prices, but there are also other methods to secure better returns, including “Denomination of Origin” (DO) status. As coffee in current DO zones become less suitable for producing highquality coffee producers in such regions may lose DO certification (Läderach et al. 2010b). Models predict lower annual rainfall in most of Mesoamerica. Reduced water supply could constrain coffee cultivation and some methods of processing.

1698   1699   1700  

Pest Damage. Coffee berry borer damage is forecast to increase in the Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi (Jaramillo et al. 2011).

1701   1702   1703   1704   1705   1706  

The climate impacts on coffee production are predicted to be very site-specific, which will require site-specific adaptation strategies. However there are three different categories of exposure profiles that can be distinguished: 1) areas that are highly exposed to progressive climate change, 2) areas that are moderately exposed and 3) areas that will be more suitable in the future to produce coffee. Table 4 gives an overview of the adaptation options for Central America.

1707   1708  

V. FUTURE RESEARCH NEEDS

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We have identified (1) the exposure potential of key perennial crops to the varied effects of climate change and how it could affect production, (2) the sensitivity of the crops to measured and modeled changes in the biotic and abiotic factors related to climate change, and (3) the adaptive changes needed to minimize the vulnerability of these crops to climate change. Perennial cropping systems have developed under a generally stable climate which has allowed management and policy decisions to use a well-developed database of information to solve problems as they develop. The expected increase in weather variability and climate change presents unprecedented challenges to this paradigm of sustainable production. Producers and processors are already or will be faced with climate-driven problems with little or no knowledge or experience to develop effective management strategies. Consequently, future management decisions will be based on a higher level of uncertainty, which is inherent in future climate impacts predictions. Managing and communicating this uncertainty will be a challenge for researchers. Additional research will be needed to provide data-driven information for growers, processors, governments and policy decisions.

1723  

 

48     1724  

A. Cultivar development

1725   1726   1727   1728   1729   1730   1731   1732   1733  

Foremost among the adaptation strategies is cultivar development (see Sect. IV, B1). Chloupek and Hrstkova (2005) compared yield increases of 26 crop species between Europe and the USA between 1961 and 2003. Adaptability to climate change was closely related to the annual yield increases of the crops studied both in the EU and the US. Crops which are more intensively bred (which have more registered cultivars) and/or have been in cultivation longer and/or are generatively propagated, have higher adaptability in Europe. In order to adapt to and gain from climate change, breeding and testing targets should be modified within five years and they should include reduced sensitivity to temperature fluctuation in winter, late flowering, and frost tolerance of flowers.

1734   1735   1736   1737   1738   1739   1740   1741   1742   1743   1744   1745   1746   1747   1748   1749   1750   1751   1752   1753  

There are a wide variety of adapted cultivars that can be evaluated for new regions. For most perennial crops, however, perennial breeding programs require 10-30 years to confirm and improve a cultivar for disease, insect, stress resistance as well a fruit quality. In bananas, for instance, years of breeding have not yielded the first single cultivar with both market acceptance and black leaf streak disease resistance (Kema 2009). This breeding hurdle could be overcome using molecular approaches (Kean 2010; Srinivasan et al. 2010) to reduce perennial cultivar generation time to months instead of years while also helping incorporate traits that are present in different but closely-related wild species (D’Hont et al. 2012). Priority breeding traits vary on a crop basis. For example, in temperate perennial horticultural crops, the timing of dormancy is fundamental to minimize killing frosts both in spring and fall. This would require that the plant react to day length instead of temperature patterns and would provide flexibility in growing season length and initiation and time of fruit maturity. Wisniewski et al. (2011) have transformed apple from temperature induced dormancy to photoperiod induced dormancy using a technology that is adaptable for other perennial horticultural crops. In banana production, photoperiod sensitivity and frost damage are practically irrelevant, but dwarfism is relevant in several cyclone-prone areas of Africa (Van den Bergh et al. 2012). Currently, molecular techniques are being used to identify genes associated with climate change (Hancock et al. 2011) in addition to disease, insect, stress and quality traits which will benefit perennial horticultural crops in the future. Molecular tools will be needed to meet the rapidly changing climate of the current production areas as well as the needs of geographically-shifted production systems.

1754   1755  

B. Understanding of yield and quality responses to climatic changes

1756   1757   1758   1759   1760   1761   1762   1763   1764  

Crop responses to combinations of environmental factors remain poorly or only partially understood. During the course of the present review, it was found that knowledge gaps were somewhat complementary in temperate and tropical systems. On one hand, physiology-level knowledge on the responses to CO2, temperatures, and water was more abundant in temperate crops (Sect. II. A, B). By contrast, in tropical crops (coffee, bananas, cocoa), global and regional assessments and scientific priority setting studies were much more frequent (Sect. II, C, F). For instance, no single FACE (Free-Air CO2 enrichment) experiment has been carried out for bananas, and the CO2 responses in coffee are only starting to be investigated (E. Assad pers. commun.).

 

49     1765   1766   1767   1768   1769   1770   1771   1772   1773   1774   1775  

Increased CO2 concentrations are expected to increase crop biomass, but this largely depends on the photosynthetic mechanism of the plant as well as on the prevailing climate conditions, particularly temperature and vapor pressure deficit (Leakey et al. 2009). In addition, CO2 fertilization effects can be negated or can even enhance the negative response of crops to high temperatures (Vara Prasad et al. 2006). In addition, intermittent drought is a significant limiting factor in most rainfed perennial systems (van Asten et al. 2011), but little is known (particularly in tropical species) about the interactions between different types of drought, changes in VPD, and high temperatures. Ozone is expected to be detrimental for crop growth (Hollaway et al. 2011), but responses have been barely if at all assessed in experimental or farmers fields (Fuhrer 2003). Moreover, the effects of all these factors and their interactions on fruit development and quality remain a topic for further research.

1776  

C. Understanding ecological interactions in cropping systems

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In combination with genetic improvements of crops, other methods (e.g., physiological, cultural, and ecological) for alleviating environmental stresses in horticultural crops need to be explored simultaneously. For example, utilization of existing and novel symbiotic relationships between endophytes and crops can be an ecological approach as a short- to mid-term adaptation option to climate change to reduce heat, nutrient, and water stress (Redman et al. 2011). Furthermore, selection and improvements of beneficial microbes that confer stress mitigation and growth promotion in crops may provide a more rapid, timely tool for adapting perennial horticultural crops to climate change.

1785   1786  

D. Understanding disease and insect response to climate change

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Insect pests and pathogens are expected to expand or shift ranges as well as move with global trade. It is not well understood how naturally occurring biological control of pathogens and insect pest by other organisms could change under changed temperature, CO2, and moisture regimes (Fuhrer 2003). Effective and environmentally friendly approaches for controlling more aggressive and new insects and weeds will be needed. Research in pheromone-based monitoring systems, attract-and-kill technologies and introduction of effective biocontrol agents are some of the emerging technologies.

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E. Reducing production costs

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The costs of production will likely increase due to the input costs for the management of insects, weeds and pathogens in addition to energy and water costs associated with irrigation. Research in automation, sensors, information technologies, and overall improvement of agricultural management will be required to reduce costs (Jiménez et al. 2011).

1800  

 

50     1801  

F. Chilling requirements and frost damage in temperate crops

1802   1803   1804   1805   1806   1807   1808   1809   1810   1811   1812   1813   1814   1815   1816   1817  

Weather variability in the spring will affect flowering and the potential for frost damage. Areas with reduced winter chilling will require either adapted cultivars with less chilling requirement or chemical methods to mimic chilling hours. Research on technology to protect flowers from freezing could stabilize production. Chemical agents to break dormancy have not been developed beyond the use of hydrogen cyanamide and further improvements will be needed for all the deciduous crops. Mitigating freeze damage is approached in two non-exclusive areas of research: freeze avoidance and freeze tolerance. Many physical mechanisms of freeze avoidance have been identified and include: ice nucleators, anti-nucleators, preferential ice accumulation sites, supercooling, and ice barriers (Gusta, and Wisniewski 2012). However, no commercial product has been developed that consistently avoids freeze damage. Mechanisms associated with freeze tolerance are associated with biochemical adaptations under genetic control. Effective biochemical changes associated with freeze tolerance include: compositional changes in cell membranes, increased osmotic adjustment, cryoprotective compounds, antioxidant defense systems, and cold-induced proteins (Gusta, and Wisniewski 2012). Modern molecular biology, genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics will provide markers and genes for adapted cultivars with freeze tolerance and perhaps avoidance.

1818  

Acknowledgement

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A portion of this work is part of the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Climate Assessment for 2012 and portions of the research were conducted under the global CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS, http://ccafs.cgiar.org).The authors greatly acknowledge the valuable contributions of Charles Staver, Inge Van den Bergh, and David Turner on the section about bananas. Authors thank three reviewers and the editor for the valuable inputs aimed at improving the manuscript. Remaining errors and omissions are the authors’ responsibility.

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Adam, N.R., G.W. Wall, B.A. Kimball, S.B. Idso, and A.N. Webber. 2004. Photosynthetic down-regulation over long-term CO2 enrichment in leaves of sour orange (Citrus aurantium) trees. New Phytol. 163:341-347.

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Agosta, E., and P. Canziani. 2012. Regional Climate Variability Impacts on the Annual Grape Yield in Mendoza, Argentina. J. Appl. Meteorol. and Climatol. 51:993-1009.

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Ahas, R., A. Aasa, A. Menzel, V. G. Fedotova, and H. Scheifinger. 2002. Changes in European spring phenology. Intl. J. Climatol. 2214:1727-1738.

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Ainsworth, E. A., and S. P. Long. 2005. What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2. New Phytol. 165:351-372.

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Allen, L.H., and J.C.V. Vu. 2009. Carbon dioxide and high temperature effects on growth of young orange trees in a humid, subtropical environment. Agr. For. Meteorol. 149:820-830.

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Alves, M.d.C., L.G. de Carvalho, E.A. Pozza, L. Sanches, and J.C.d.S. Maia. 2011. Ecological zoning of soybean rust, coffee rust and banana black sigatoka based on Brazilian climate changes. Proc. Environ. Sci. 6:35-49.

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2694  

 

78     2695  

Table 1. Advance of apple and lilac bloom in Europe, South Africa, Japan and the United States. Country Germany Italy Germany Japan South Africa France Northeast U.S. Western U.S.

Time period Feb–April mid-March–May March–April March–April Aug–Sept March–May March–May March–May (lilac)

Advance (days/year) 0.23 0.3 0.2 0.2–0.3 0.1–0.2 0.7 0.2 0.2

Source Chmielewski et al. 2004 Eccel et al. 2009 Menzel et al. 2006 Fujisawa and Kobayashi 2010 Grab and Craparo 2011 Guedon and Legave 2008 Wolfe et al. 2005 Cayan et al. 2001

2696   2697   2698   2699  

2700   2701  

Table 2 Production, harvested area, and yield of banana and plantain in the top 15 producing countries (ranked according to total production). Data from FAOSTAT (FAO 2010)

Country

Production (million Ton)*

Production (%)

India Uganda China Philippines Ecuador Brazil Indonesia Colombia Ghana Tanzania Cameroon Guatemala Rwanda Mexico Costa Rica

31.90 10.15 9.85 9.10 8.48 6.98 5.81 4.85 3.60 3.58 3.55 2.82 2.75 2.10 1.89

24.1 7.7 7.4 6.9 6.4 5.3 4.4 3.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.4

Harvested area (thousand ha)* 844.0 1,843.0 413.9 449.6 328.8 487.0 98.0 425.6 335.2 690.0 275.0 72.7 333.8 76.9 52.9

Harvested area (%)

Yield (Ton/Ha)*

9.0 19.6 4.4 4.8 3.5 5.2 1.0 4.5 3.6 7.3 2.9 0.8 3.6 0.8 0.6

37.8 5.5 23.8 20.2 25.8 14.3 59.3 11.4 10.7 5.2 12.9 38.8 8.2 27.3 35.8

*Totals of production and harvested area of banana and plantain were used as opposed to individual quantities because the FAO labeling is not totally reliable

 

79     2702   2703  

 

80     2704  

Table 3. Projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and coffee yield by 2050 in Mesoamerica (Läderach et al. 2010). Temperature change Coffee contribution 2.00– 2.25– to GDP Country (%) 2.25°C 2.50°C Costa Rica 1.3 100.0 El Salvador 2.5 78.3 21.7 Guatemala 4.2 60.8 39.2 Honduras 8.2 5.4 94.6 Mexico 5.0 20.6 79.4 Nicaragua 7.2 7.9 92.1

 

Distribution in (%) of area Precipitation change Coffee suitability change ≥40% -5 to - -5 to 0 to 40–20% 20–0% >-10% 10% 0% 5% reduction reduction reduction 100.0 55.4 40.5 2.7 1.1 98.9 45.5 43.7 10.9 17.4 82.6 12.9 25.5 54.2 5.8 94.2 38.2 49.8 11.0 49.0 50.5 0.4 18.2 34.6 46.9 1.2 98.0 0.8 35.3 32.1 32.5

≥0% increase +1.4 +7.4 +1.0 +0.3 +0.1

81     2705   2706  

Table 4. Overview of climate change adaptation options in Central America (adapted from Schroth et al. 2009). Activity Highly exposed Crop insurance for smallholder farmers

Stressor to be addressed

Caveats

Increased risk of extreme events

Promote diversification of land use systems and income sources including payments for environmental services

Increased variability of coffee production and quality and increased risk of crop failure, interacting with market risks

Breed coffee varieties with greater tolerance of high temperatures, low precipitation and altered pest/disease pressure Moderately exposed Improved shade structure and management

Temperature increase and its effects on coffee production and quality

Could in certain cases delay adoption of necessary adaptation measures. Need to avoid prescriptive, top down approaches, requires careful market analysis for new options, sustainable funding for Payments for Environmental Services (PES) Varieties are still in development and not readily available to producers

Implement irrigation where feasible Increase water efficiency in coffee production and processing Promising new areas Evaluate potential agroecological, social, economic and infrastructural potential of promising areas 2707   2708   2709  

 

Greater maximum temperatures, increasing risk of rainstorms and landslides Changing precipitation patterns and droughts Lower average rainfall, increased drought risk

Complex relationships between shade and coffee under drought conditions, labor requirements for shade management Costly infrastructure

Suitable areas are decreasing under progressive climate change and areas at higher altitudes become more suitable

Areas at high altitudes are usually protected forest areas providing environmental services to downstream population

Requires low-cost credit especially for small farmers

82     2710  

List of Figures:

2711   2712   2713  

Fig. 1. Vineyard-scale adaptation options to stresses associated with climate change. This figure is adapted from Nicholas and Durham (2012).

2714  

Fig. 2. Steps in the adaptation process. Taken from Moser and Ekstrom (2010).

2715   2716  

Fig. 3. Levels of adaptation in relation to benefits from adaptation actions and degree of climate change, with illustrative examples. Taken from Howden et al. (2010)

2717  

2718  

 

83    

2719  

List of Plates:

2720   2721   2722  

Plate 1. Distribution of area harvested as in You et al. (2007). Raw data are derived from FAOSTAT (FAO, 2010). Gridcell values are tens of hectares per 100 km2.

2723   2724   2725   2726   2727   2728  

Plate 2. Predicted changes in climatic suitability from the study of Ramirez et al. (2011) for the four most important banana growing regions of the world: (A) Central America and Andean countries, (B) India, (C) Brazil, and (D) East Africa. Values are percent changes in climatic suitability in percent, as predicted by the EcoCrop model (Ramirez-Villegas et al. 2011).

2729   2730   2731   2732  

Plate 3. Predicted mean annual precipitation and cumulative dry month changes by 2050 according to nineteen GCM models (SRES A2) for Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire (adapted from Läderach et al. 2011).

2733   2734   2735   2736  

Plate 4. Predicted mean annual temperature and evapotranspiration changes by 2050 according to nineteen GCM models (SRES A2) for Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire (adapted from Läderach et al. 2011).

2737   2738   2739  

Plate 5. Current climatic suitability for cocoa production within cocoa-growing regions of Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire (adapted from Läderach et al. 2011).

2740   2741   2742  

Plate 6: Climatic suitability for cocoa production in 2050 according to 19 GCM using the MAXENT crop prediction model (adapted from Läderach et al. 2011).

2743   2744   2745  

Plate 7. Suitability change for cocoa growing-regions by 2050 and measurements of agreement and Coefficient of Variation of results (adapted from Läderach et al. 2011).

2746  

 

84     2747  

Plate 8. Projected changes in suitability in Mesoamerica by 2050 (Läderach et al. 2010b).

2748   2749   2750   2751   2752   2753   2754   2755   2756   2757   2758   2759   2760   2761   2762   2763   2764   2765  

 

85     2766  

Fig. 1

2767   2768   2769   2770   2771   2772   2773   2774   2775   2776   2777   2778   2779   2780    

86     2781  

Fig. 2

2782   2783  

Fig. 3

2784  

 

87     2785  

Plate 1

2786  

2787   2788   2789   2790   2791   2792   2793   2794   2795   2796   2797   2798   2799   2800   2801   2802   2803   2804  

 

88     2805   2806  

Plate 2

2807  

2808   2809   2810   2811  

 

89     2812   2813  

Plate 3

2814  

2815   2816   2817   2818   2819   2820   2821   2822   2823   2824   2825   2826  

 

90     2827   2828  

Plate 4

2829  

2830   2831   2832   2833   2834   2835   2836   2837   2838   2839   2840   2841  

 

91     2842   2843  

Plate 5

2844  

2845   2846   2847   2848   2849   2850   2851   2852   2853   2854  

 

92     2855   2856  

Plate 6

2857  

2858   2859   2860   2861   2862   2863   2864   2865   2866   2867  

 

93     2868   2869  

Plate 7

2870  

2871   2872   2873   2874   2875   2876   2877   2878   2879   2880   2881   2882   2883  

 

94     2884   2885  

Plate 8

2886  

2887