Jul 31, 2013 ... www.bea.gov. 2. Comprehensive Revision. ▫ Occurs about every five years (this
is the 14th). ▫ Incorporates the results of the 5-year economic.
Results of the 2013 Comprehensive Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts Bureau of Economic Analysis July 31, 2013
www.bea.gov
1
Comprehensive Revision ▪ Occurs about every five years (this is the 14th) ▪ Incorporates the results of the 5-year economic census and the benchmark input-output accounts ▪ Updates the reference year for prices, quantities (2009) ▪ Major changes in concepts, methods, and tables ▪ The entire time span (1929 to present) is open for revisions
www.bea.gov
2
Changes in Definitions and Presentations ▪ Major conceptual changes: Capitalize research & development (R&D) Capitalize entertainment, literary, and artistic originals Expanded capitalization of ownership transfer costs of residential housing Accrual treatment of defined benefit pension plans
▪ Major table changes: Intellectual property products New pension tables www.bea.gov
3
Major Statistical Changes ▪ Benchmark input-output accounts for 2007 ▪ Improved measures of implicit services of commercial banks ▪ State & local government defined-contribution pension plans ▪ Adjustment to proprietors’ income for corporate partners ▪ Regulated investment companies distributions ▪ Mortgage interest paid for housing www.bea.gov
4
Reasons for Changes ▪ Changes in the economic environment Growing importance of intellectual property products in business, productivity
▪ Financial crisis and recession Exposed vulnerabilities in pension promises Data gaps in financial services
▪ Updated international guidelines System of National Accounts 2008 Maintain comparability of GDP across countries, while allowing accounts to remain up to date www.bea.gov
5
New and Revised Source Data ▪ Census Bureau surveys:
Annual survey of manufactures Annual retail trade survey Annual wholesale trade survey Services annual survey Construction spending (value put in place) Government finances
▪ Bureau of Labor Statistics: Wage and salary data
▪ Internal Revenue Service:
Tax returns for corporations and for sole proprietorships and partnerships
▪ Office of Management and Budget: Federal government budget data
▪ BEA:
International transactions accounts
www.bea.gov
6
Average annual rates of change of real GDP 4 3.2
3.3
3.4
3.4 3.2
3.2
Percent
3
2
1
0.8 0.6
0 1929-2012
1959-1992 Previously published
www.bea.gov
1992-2007
2007-2012
Revised 7
Real gross domestic product [Percent change from preceding period]
8 6
Percent
4 2 0 -2 -4 1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
Previously published www.bea.gov
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Revised
8
Revisions to recent recessions and expansions [percent change, annual rate]
4
3.6 3.6 2.7 2.8
3
2.1 2.2 2 1.0
Percent
1
0.6
0 -1 -2 -3
-2.7 -2.6 -3.2
-2.9
-4 1990Q3-1991Q1
1991Q1-2001Q1
2001Q1-2001Q4
Previously published
www.bea.gov
2001Q4-2007Q4
2007Q4-2009Q2
2009Q2-2013Q1
Revised 9
Average annual rates of change of real GDP and its major components, 2002 to 2012
6
5.3 5.2
4
Percent
2
1.6 1.8
1.8 2.0
3.1 3.1
2.4 2.6
1.6 1.8 0.9 0.9
0 -2 -4 -5.0
-6 GDP
PCE
-4.4
Nonres Fixed Res Fixed Previously published
www.bea.gov
Exports
Imports
GOV
FSDP
Revised 10
Real gross domestic product [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
6 4 2
Percent
0 -2
Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 0.8 0.6
-4
0.6 0.4 0.3
-6
0.1
0.2
-8
-0.2
-0.1
2007
-10 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
10q1
0.0
0.0
0.0
2008
11q1
2009
2010
12q1
2011
2012
13q1
Revised 11
Price index for gross domestic purchases [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
5 4 3
Percent
2 1 0
Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 0.2
-1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0 -0.1
-2
-0.1
-0.2 -0.3
-0.2
-0.2
2007
2008
-0.2
-0.4
-3
-0.5 -0.6
-4
2009
2010
2011
2012
-5 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 12
Real gross domestic income [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
8 6 4 2 Percent
0 -2
Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 1.6
-4
1.3
1.2 0.7
0.8
-6
0.3
0.4 0.0
-8
-0.4
-0.1 -0.4
-10
-0.4
-0.8
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-12 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 13
Real GDI and Real GDP [Billions of chained (2009) dollars]
16,000
15,500
Levels
15,000
14,500
14,000
13,500 07q1
08q1
09q1 Real GDI
www.bea.gov
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Real GDP 14
Statistical discrepancy as % of GDP 2
Percentage
1
0
-1
-2 07q1
08q1
09q1
10q1
Previously published www.bea.gov
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 15
Personal saving as a percentage of DPI Revision in percentage points, 2007-2012 2
8
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
2011
2012
1
7
0.6
0.5
0.5 0
6
-0.5
Percent
2007
-0.4
2008
2009
2010
5 4 3 2 1 04q1
05q1
06q1
07q1
08q1
Previously published www.bea.gov
09q1
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 16
Research and Development ▪ Expenditures on R&D have the characteristics of fixed assets and should be treated as investment: Ownership rights, long-lasting, used in production
▪ Previous treatment: Business R&D expenditures were classified as intermediate inputs R&D expenditures of nonprofit institutions and governments were included in consumption expenditures
▪ New treatment: R&D expenditures by businesses, NPISH, and governments are counted as fixed investment Depreciation of R&D added to consumption of fixed capital (CFC) www.bea.gov
17
Impact of Capitalizing R&D ▪ Total R&D investment for 2012: $417.7 billion 2.6% of (revised) GDP
Business R&D: $248.7 billion Formerly treated as intermediate spending
Government & nonprofit R&D: $169.0 billion Reclassified from consumption to investment
▪ Impact on GDP revision for 2012: $396.7 billion 2.5% of (previously published) GDP
Business investment added to GDP: $248.7 billion Government & nonprofit—add CFC for R&D: $148.0 billion www.bea.gov
18
Entertainment, Literary, and Artistic Originals ▪ Original films, sound recordings, manuscripts, etc., that can be used for the production and sale of copies ▪ Estimates for several types, including:
Motion pictures Long-lasting television programs Books Music compositions and recordings Miscellaneous artwork
▪ Treatment as fixed investment similar to R&D, except entirely in private sector www.bea.gov
19
Real private intellectual property products [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
25
Private Investment in IPP [Percent Change from Previous Quarter]
20
Percent
15 10 5 0 -5 -10
www.bea.gov
20
Accrual-Based Measures of Pensions ▪ New measures for defined-benefit (DB) plans ▪ Accrual-based accounting Matches income earned with related production Recognizes employer liabilities for promised pension benefits Replaces cash-based accounting
▪ Compensation of employees Deferred compensation Benefits accrued on services rendered in current period
▪ Interest Benefits accrued on services rendered in past periods Includes interest on unfunded actuarial liabilities www.bea.gov
21
Composition of revisions to compensation [Revision in level]
www.bea.gov
22
Accrued interest for unfunded actuarial liabilities 220 200 180 160 Billions of dollars
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 2002
2003
2004
2005
from private business www.bea.gov
2006
2007
2008
from federal
2009
2010
2011
2012
from state and local 23
Real gross domestic product [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
6 4 2
Percent
0 -2
Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 0.8 0.6
-4
0.6 0.4 0.3
-6
0.1
0.2
-8
-0.2
-0.1
2007
-10 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
10q1
0.0
0.0
0.0
2008
11q1
2009
2010
12q1
2011
2012
13q1
Revised 24
Revisions to percent change in real GDP and to contributions to percent change - 2009 0.35 0.30
0.3
0.30
Percentage points
0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10
0.07 0.04
0.05 0.00 -0.05 -0.10
GDP was revised from -3.1 to -2.8.
-0.04 -0.10
-0.15
2009 GDP www.bea.gov
PCE Investment Exports Imports GOV 25
Revisions to percent change in real GDP and to contributions to percent change - 2010 0.20 0.16
Percentage points
0.15 0.10
0.1 0.06
0.05
0.02
0.00 -0.05
-0.01
GDP was revised from 2.4 to 2.5.
-0.10 -0.12
-0.15
2010 GDP www.bea.gov
PCE
Investment
Exports
Imports
GOV 26
Revisions to percent change in real GDP and to contributions to percent change - 2011 0.10 0.08
0.07
Percentage points
0.06 0.04
GDP was unrevised at 1.8.
0.02
0.02 0.00
0.0
-0.02
0.01
-0.01
-0.04 -0.06
-0.05
-0.08 -0.10
2011 GDP www.bea.gov
PCE Investment Exports Imports GOV 27
Revisions to percent change in real GDP and to contributions to percent change - 2012 0.70
Percentage points
0.60
0.6
GDP was revised from 2.2 to 2.8.
0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20
0.20
0.17
0.14
0.10
0.05 0.01
0.00
2012 GDP www.bea.gov
PCE
Investment
Exports
Imports
GOV 28
Revisions to percent change in real GDP and to contributions to percent change – 2010Q2 1.80
1.7
GDP was revised from 2.2 to 3.9.
1.60
Percentage points
1.40
1.21
1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40
0.40 0.20
0.08
0.02
0.00 -0.04
-0.20
2010Q2 GDP www.bea.gov
PCE Investment Exports Imports GOV 29
Revisions to percent change in real GDP and to contributions to percent change – 2011Q1 1.50
Percentage points
1.00 0.50
GDP was revised from 0.1 to -1.3.
0.26
0.00 -0.50
-0.43
-0.27
-0.80
-1.00 -1.50
-0.12
-1.4
-2.00
2011Q1 GDP www.bea.gov
PCE
Investment
Exports
Imports
GOV 30
Revisions to percent change in real GDP and to contributions to percent change – 2012Q1 1.80
1.7
1.60
GDP was revised from 2.0 to 3.7.
Percentage points
1.40 1.20 1.00
0.79
0.80 0.60
0.42
0.40
0.32
0.26
0.20 0.00 -0.04
-0.20
2012Q1 GDP www.bea.gov
PCE Investment
Exports Imports GOV 31
Real personal consumption expenditures [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
6 4
Percent
2 0
Revision in percent change, 2007-2012
0.5 0.4
-2
0.3
0.3
0.3 0.2
0.2
0.2 0.1
0.0
0.0 -0.1
-4
-0.2
-0.1
-0.3
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-6 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 32
Real PCE for goods
[Percent change from preceding period, SAAR] 10
Percent
5
0 Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 0.5 0.3
-5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1 -0.3
-10
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5 -0.7 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-15 07q1
08q1
09q1
10q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised
33
Real PCE for services
[Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
3 2
Percent
1 0
Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 0.8 0.6 0.6
-1
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
-2
0.2
0.2 0.1 0.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-3 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 34
Real nonresidential fixed investment [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
30 20
Percent
10 0 Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 3.2
-10
2.5 2.4
1.8
1.6
-20
0.8 0.1 0.0 -0.8
-30
-0.6 -1.0
-1.6 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-0.7 2012
-40 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
11q1
10q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 35
Real nonresidential structures [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR] Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 2.2
2.4
40
1.9 1.8 1.2
30
0.6 0.0
-0.6 -0.8
-1.2 -1.8
-1.4
2007
10 Percent
-0.3
-0.6
20
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0 -10 -20 -30 -40 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 36
Real nonresidential equipment [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
40 30 20
Percent
10 0
Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 5.0
-10
4.5
4.0 3.0
-20
2.0 1.0
-30
0.6
0.2
0.3
2011
2012
0.0 -0.2 -1.0
-40
-1.0 -2.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
-50 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published*
www.bea.gov
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised
*Values are unpublished calculations.
37
Real residential fixed investment [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
30
Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 1.9
2.0
1.5 1.2
20
1.2
1.0
10
0.8
0.5
Percent
0.0
0
-0.1
-0.1
2007
2008
-0.5
2009
2010
2011
2012
-10 -20 -30 -40 07q1
08q1
09q1
10q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 38
Change in real private inventories [Billions of chained dollars, SAAR]
160 120 80
Levels
40 0 -40 20
Revision in level (billions of chained dollars), 2007-2012 14.6
-80
15 10
-120
7.8
7.3 2.6
5
2.6
0
-160
-5 -10
-200
-8.6
-15 -20
2007
-240 07q1
08q1
09q1
10q1
Previously published (2005 dollars) www.bea.gov
2008
2009
2010
11q1
12q1
2011
2012
13q1
Revised (2009 dollars) 39
Real exports of goods and services [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
30 20
Percent
10 0 Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 0.7
-10
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3 0.1
-20
0.1
0.0
-0.1 -0.3
-30
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
2007
2008
-0.7
-40 07q1
08q1
09q1
10q1
Previously published www.bea.gov
2009
11q1
2010
2011
2012
12q1
13q1
Revised 40
Real imports of goods and services [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
30 20
Percent
10 0 Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 0.5
-10
0.4
0.3
0.3 0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
-20
0.0 -0.1 -0.2
-30
-0.1 -0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.4 -0.5
2007
-40 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
2008
2009
10q1
11q1
2010
2011
2012
12q1
13q1
Revised 41
Real federal government spending [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
20 15 10 Percent
5 0 -5
Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 1.2 0.8 0.8
-10
0.5 0.2
0.4 0.0
-15
-0.1
-0.4 -0.4
-0.4
2008
2009
-0.8
2007
-20 07q1
08q1
2010
2011
2012
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 42
Real state and local government spending [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 0.7
0.8
8
0.6 0.3
0.4 0.2
6
0.1
0.0 -0.2 -0.2
-0.4
4
-0.6 -0.6
-0.8 -1.0
Percent
2
-0.9
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0 -2 -4 -6 -8 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 43
Price index for gross domestic purchases [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
5 4 3
Percent
2 1 0
Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 0.2
-1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0 -0.1
-2
-0.1
-0.2 -0.3
-0.2
-0.2
2007
2008
-0.2
-0.4
-3
-0.5 -0.6
-4
2009
2010
2011
2012
-5 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 44
Price index for gross domestic purchases, excluding food and energy [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR] Revision in percent change, 2007-2012
5
0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7
4
Percent
3
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1 -0.2
-0.2 -0.3
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2 1 0 -1 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 45
Price index for PCE
[Percent change from preceding period, SAAR] 6 4
Percent
2 0 Revision in percent change, 2007-2012
-2
0.2 0.1
0.0
0.0
2011
2012
0.0
-4
-0.1 -0.2 -0.3
-6
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
2007
2008
2009
2010
-0.4 -0.5
-8 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 46
Price index for PCE, excluding food and energy [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR] Revision in percent change, 2007-2012
4
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0 -0.1 -0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
2008
2009
2010
-0.4
3
-0.5 -0.6
Percent
2007
2011
2012
2
1
0 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 47
National income
[Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
10
Percent
5
0 Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 1.5
1.3 0.9
1.0
-5
0.4
0.5 0.0
-10
-0.5
-0.4
-0.5 -0.8
-1.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-15 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 48
National income [Revisions in level]
120 100
Billions of dollars
80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 2009
National income
www.bea.gov
2010
Compensation
Proprietors' income
2011
Rental income
2012
Profits
Interest & misc. payments
49
Compensation of employees [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
15 10
Percent
5 0 Revision in percent change, 2007-2012
-5
0.5
0.4
0.4 0.3
0.2
0.2
-10
0.1
0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2
-15
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4 -0.4
-0.5
2007
-20 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
2008
10q1
2009
11q1
2010
2011
2012
12q1
13q1
Revised 50
Compensation of employees [billions of dollars] Revision in level, 2007-2012
9,000
50.0 43.2 40.0
8,800
30.0 18.7
20.0 10.9 10.0
8,600
0.0
Levels
-2.7 -10.0
8,400
-11.6 -20.0
-16.7
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
8,200 8,000 7,800 7,600 7,400 7,200 07q1
www.bea.gov
08q1
09q1
10q1
11q1
Previously published
Revised
12q1
13q1
51
Compensation of employees [Revisions in level]
30
Billions of dollars
20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2009
2010 Total compensation
www.bea.gov
2011 Wages and salaries
2012 Supplements 52
Corporate profits from current production [Percent change from preceding period, quarterly rate]
Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 2
30
1.4
2
0.9
1
0.6
1
0.2
0
20
-1 -1 -1.0 -2 -2
Percent
10
-1.8
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
-10 -20 -30 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 53
Corporate profits from current production [Revisions in level]
100 80
Billions of dollars
60 40 20 0 -20 -40 2009 Total www.bea.gov
2010 Domestic financial
2011 Domestic nonfinancial
2012 Foreign 54
Personal income
[Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
15 10
Percent
5 0
Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 2.5
2.0
2
-5
1.5
1.0
1
0.5
0.5 0
-10
-0.5 -1
-0.4 -0.9
-1.0
-1.5
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-15 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 55
Personal income and its components [Revisions in level]
350 300
Billions of dollars
250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 2009
2010
2011
2012
Personal income
Wages and salaries
Supplements
Proprietors' income
Rental income
Personal income receipts on assets
Personal current transfer receipts www.bea.gov
56
Real disposable personal income (DPI) [Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
10 8 6
Percent
4 2 0 -2
Revision in percent change, 2007-2012 2.3
2.5
-4
2 1.5
1.1
1
-6
0.3
0.5 0 -0.5
-8
-0.3
-1
-0.7
-0.9
-1.5
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-10 07q1
08q1
09q1 Previously published
www.bea.gov
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 57
Personal saving as a percentage of DPI Revision in percentage points, 2007-2012 2
8
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
2011
2012
1
7
0.6
0.5
0.5 0
6
-0.5
Percent
2007
-0.4
2008
2009
2010
5 4 3 2 1 04q1
05q1
06q1
07q1
08q1
Previously published www.bea.gov
09q1
10q1
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 58
Gross (national) saving as a percentage of gross national income 20 18
Percent
16 14 12 10 8 07q1
08q1
09q1
10q1
Previously published www.bea.gov
11q1
12q1
13q1
Revised 59
Selected components of national saving [Revisions in level]
250 200
Billions of dollars
150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 2009 Personal saving www.bea.gov
2010 Undistributed profits
2011
2012
Government saving 60