revi ja za geografi jo

UN I VERZA V M ARI BORU • FI LOZOFSKA FAKU LTETA

OD D ELEK ZA GEOGRAFI JO

REV I JA ZA GEOGRAFI JO JOURN AL FOR GEOGRAPH Y 7 – 1 2012

M ARI BOR 2012

REVI JA ZA GEOGRAFI JO JOURN AL FOR GEOGRAPH Y 7- 1, 2012 I SSN 1854- 665X UDK 91 I zda j a t e lj / Publishe d by Oddelek za geografij o, Filozofska fakult et a, Univerza v Mariboru Depart m ent of Geography, Facult y of Art s, Universit y of Maribor M e dna r odni ur e dnišk i odbor / I nt e r na t ion a l Edit or ia l Boa r d Ana Maria de Souza Mallo Bicalho ( Brazil) , Dragut in Felet ar ( Croat ia) , Lisa Harringt on ( USA) , Uroš Horvat ( Slovenia) , Roy Jones ( Aust ralia) , Pet er Jordan ( Aust ria) , Doo- Chul Kim ( Japan) , Marijan Klemenčič ( Slovenia) , Karm en Kolenc- Kolnik ( Slovenia) , Lučka Lorber ( Slovenia) , Jörg Maier ( Germ any) , Pavel Ptaček ( Czech Republic) , I gor Žiberna ( Slovenia) Gla vni in odgovor ni ur e dnik / Chie f a nd Re spon sible Edit or I gor Žiberna Oddelek za geografij o Filozofska fakult et a Univerza v Mariboru Koroška cest a 160, SI – 2000 Maribor, Slovenij a e- pošt a / e- m ail: igor.ziberna@um .si.si Tehnični urednik / Te chnica l Edit or I gor Žiberna

Re ce nz e nt i / Re vie w e r s Lučka Lorber (Slovenia), Uroš Horvat ( Slovenia) , I gor Žiberna ( Slovenia) Za vsebinsko in j ezikovno podobo prispevkov so odgovorni avt orj i. Ponat is člankov je mogoč samo z dovoljenjem uredništva in navedbo vira. The aut hors are responsible for t he cont ent of t heir art icles. No part of t his publicat ion m ay be reproduced wit hout t he publisher's prior consent and a full m ent ion of t he source. ht t p: / / www.ff.uni- m b.si Publikacij a j e indeksirana v naslednj ih bibliografskih bazah / I ndexed in: CGP ( Current Geographical Publicat ions) , EBSCOhost , I BSS ( I nt ernat ional Bibliography of t he Social Sciences) , Ulrich's, DOAJ.

Tisk / Pr int e d by Tiskarna Saj e d.o.o. N a k la da / N um be r of copie s 100

Revij a za geografij o - Journal for Geography, 7-1, 2012

KAZALO - CON TEN TS SLAVOMI R BUCHER Populat ion aging and changes in t he age st ruct ure of Slovakia ……… Sum m ary ……………………………………………………………………………………………

7 23

KARMEN KOLNI K Učitelji mentorji o svoji usposobljenosti za poučevanje geografije s pomočjo interakt ivne t able ………………………………………………..……………… Sum m ary ……………………………………………………………………………………………

25 33

RAHMAN NURKOVIĆ Shopping and business cent res in Saraj evo .…………………………………… Sum m ary ……………………………………………………………………………………………

35 47

GORAN RAJOVIĆ, JELISAVKA BULATOVIĆ Som e econom ic- geographical fact ors developm ent in exam ple Berana, Andrij evice and Plava ( Mont enegro) ……………………….……… Sum m ary ……………………………………………………………………………………………

49 67

SAMIR ĐUG, NUSRET DREŠKOVIĆ Nat ure prot ect ion in Bosnia and Herzegovina: st at e and perspect ives ………………………………………………………………………………………. Sum m ary ……………………………………………………………………………………………

69 80

KLEMEN PRAH Voda kot pedogenetski dejavnik v porečju Sotle ..…………………………… Sum m ary ……………………………………………………………………………………………

81 87

NI ZAMUDDI N KHAN, ANI SUR REHMAN, MOHD. SADI Q SALMAN Dynam ics and diversificat ion of livelihood in urban fringe of Aligarh cit y, U.P., I ndia ….………………………………………………………………………..……. Sum m ary ……………………………………………………………………………………………

89 99

BOŠTJAN KERBLER St anovanj sko varst vo st ar ej šega prebivalst va v Slovenij i: dom ovi za st arej še in last niško zasedena st anovanj a .…………………………………. Sum m ary ……………………………………………………………………………………………

101 114

SI MON KUŠAR Usmeritve za trajnostni prostorski razvoj območij proizvodnih dej avnost i .……………………………………………………………………………………..... Sum m ary ……………………………………………………………………………………………

115 129

MUSHI R ALI , KEDRU SURUR St at e of Soil Conservat ion Pract ices in Silt i Woreda, Sout hern Et hiopia …………………………………………………………………………………………..... Sum m ary ……………………………………………………………………………………………

131 158

5


MOHAMMAD AFSAR ALAM How GI S could be used as a t ool t o enhance t he t ourism sect ors? A case st udy of Erit rea ….…………………………………………………………………..... Sum m ary ……………………………………………………………………………………………

159 172

UROŠ HORVAT Značilnosti stacionarnega turističnega obiska v Mariboru med let om a 1961 in 2011 ..………………………………………………………………….....

173

Navodila za pripravo člankov v Reviji za geografijo ………....……………………

191

6

Revij a za geografij o - Journal for Geography, 7-1, 2012, 7- 24

POPULATI ON AGI N G AN D CH AN GES I N TH E AGE STRUCTURE OF SLOVAKI A Sla vom ír Buche r RNDr. Facult y of Hum anit ies and Nat ural Sciences Depart m ent of Geography and Regional Developm ent Universit y of Prešov Ul. 17 novem bra 1, Prešov 080 01, Slovakia e- m ail: [email protected] UDK: 911.3: 312 COBI SS: 1.01 Abst r a ct Popu la t ion a ging a n d ch a nge s in t h e a ge st r u ct u r e of Slov a k ia The age group struct ur e of the populat ion in t he districts of Slovakia was highlighted by m eans of an analysis of t he t hr ee big age groups: 0 – 19 years, 20 – 64 years and 65 years and older. The paper report s on t he developm ent of the charact erist ics of t he burden carried by t he product ive populat ion in consequence of t he dem ographic ageing of populat ion in t he condit ions of t he Slovakian regions. The m ain t ask of t he paper was t he ident ificat ion t he t endencies in age struct ure of Slovak populat ion. Statist ical m et hods and m at hem at ics proceeding are used t o com pare different param eters age st ructure (e. g. index of ageing, youth dependency rat io etc.) . That can be t he ageing process as well as t he form ing of t he populat ion age structure considered as a dem ographical phenom enon with a fairly high degree of com plexity. The results of the study will enhance the knowledge about dem ographic characterist ics of Slovakia and t herefore m ight be useful for fur ther research in t he field.

Ke y w or ds Age struct ure, Slovakia, pre- product ive populat ion rate, populat ion ageing.

Uredništvo je članek prejelo 6.1.2012 7

Slavom ír Bucher: Populat ion aging and changes in t he age st ruct ure of Slovakia

1 . I nt r oduct ion The analysis of populat ion st ruct ure of Slovakia in t erm s of age groups in t he select ed t im e span ( 1945 – 2009) highlight s t he gradual rise of t he elderly populat ion’s rat io, t he m ain cause being t he enorm ous social- econom ic differences in all Slovak regions during t he t ransform at ion period ( last decade of 20 cent ury) . The aging changes in populat ion of Slovakia have been influenced by t ransform at ion of post - com m unist count ries in East ern Europe. From t he wide spect rum of t he populat ion st udy t opics is t he paper orient ed on t he st ruct ure of t he populat ion in t erm s of age groups t o t he assessm ent of hum an capit al, which is affect ed t o t he form at ion of a new m odel of reproduct ive behavior charact erized by t he sudden decline of t he nat ural populat ion growt h and of t he reproduct ion rat es t o levels t hat do not provide for t he self- reproduct ion of t he populat ion. I n principle, we can agree wit h t his st at em ent , however, we m ust not e t hat t his fact s is very m uch influenced by long- t erm dem ographic behavior and fam ily behavior of t he regions which, as m any aut hors ( Van de Kaa 1987, 45; Past or 2002, 50) indicat es, are m anifest ed in t heir abilit y t o accept second dem ographic t ransform at ion difficult ies. I n Slovakia, t he changes in dem ographic behavior are visible m ost significant ly in t hree int errelat ed areas – reproduct ive behavior, t he family behavior and ageing of the population (Mládek, Káčerová 2008, 194). 2 . M e t hodology I n dem ography t wo t radit ions in st udies on t he process of populat ion aging exist : first , st udying t he populat ion aging process of changes in populat ion age st ruct ure consist ing in t he growt h in num ber and share of aged populat ion in t he t ot al populat ion ( Frat czak 1993, 15) . The second t radit ion in st udying t he process of populat ion aging consist s in exam inat ion of broadly underst ood changes in aged subpopulat ion. These st udies refer t o exam inat ion of changes in t he aged populat ion according t o different dem ographic and socio- econom ic charact erist ics. A dist inct ion is m ade bet ween t hose who are bet ween 65 – 74 ( young- old) and t hose 75 years and over ( old- old) . We used bot h aspect s of st udying t he aging of populat ion. The assessm ent of t he populat ion st ruct ure in t erm s of age groups and gender was analyzed in several works (Matlovič 2005, 152; St oica et al. 2010, 106) . The st ruct ure of t he populat ion in t erm s of dem ographic ageing and t he developm ent of burden carried by t he product ive populat ion are relevant t o t he assessm ent of hum an capit al, but also t o ident ifying t he capabilit ies t o support econom ic act ivit ies t hat involve cert ain workforce charact erist ics ( relat ed t o age, skills and t raining levels am ong ot hers) . Several authors (Kovář, Říhánek 1995, 110; Mládek, Marenčáková 2003, 289; Vošta, Minařík 2007, 5; Svat ošová 2008, 705; Mládek, Káčerová 2008, 192; Dufek, Minařík 2009, 265 and Bucher 2010, 207) were writ ing about t he aging and age st ruct ure of Slovakia as w ell as ot her post - com m unist count ries in t he sense.

8


Anot her approach t o t he st udy of populat ion aging process is st udying t he process as connect ed wit h t he dem ographic t ransit ion. This t ype of considerat ion can be found in t he works of: Klinger ( 1988, 65) , Warnes ( 1989, 55) , Myers ( 1990, 215) . Valkovics ( 1990, 30) em phasizes t hat aging under dem ographic t ransit ion is connect ed t ransit ion from t he st age of fert ilit y- dom inat ed populat ion aging t o t he m ort alit y- dom inat ed st age of populat ion aging. The assessm ent of t he age st ruct ure of Czech and Slovak inhabit ant s according (Kovář, Říhánek 1995, 112) and ot her dem ographic expert s is usually represent ed by t he relat ive expression, i. e. t he rat ios of t hree basic age groups. The m et hodology for calculat ion of t he select ed dem ographic indicat ors ( Dufek 2006, 70) : - Ageing index specifies t he proport ion of t he post - product ive and pre- product ive populat ion. Econom ic lim it :

- Age index populat ion.

specifies

t he

proport ion

of

pre- product ive

and

post - product ive

Econom ic lim it :

- Yout h dependency coefficient – t he coefficient of t he burden on t he product ive populat ion im posed by t he pre- product ive populat ion wit h crit ical econom ic age lim it s. Econom ic lim it :

- Old age dependency coefficient – t he coefficient of t he burden on t he product ive populat ion im posed by t he post - product ive populat ion. Econom ic lim it :

- The coefficient of t ot al burden – t he coefficient of t he burden on t he product ive populat ion im posed by t he pre and post - product ive populat ion. Econom ic lim it :

- The inflow coefficient – defined as a proport ion of t he part of t he pre- product ive populat ion which is j ust ent ering t o t he product ive populat ion. Econom ic lim it :

9


- The out flow coefficient – defined as a proport ion of t he part of t he post - product ive populat ion which is j ust about t o leave t he product ive populat ion. Econom ic lim it :

We used following form ula for calculat ing t ypology of populat ion ageing in dist rict s of Slovakia - 2009:

I f decreasing X i agrees wit h t he favorable st at e of observed phenom enon

I f increasing X i agrees wit h t he favorable of st at e of observed phenom enon. 3 . Re sult s a nd discu ssion The age st ruct ure of t he populat ion is usually det erm ined on t he basis of t he num ber and proport ion of t he populat ion divided int o t hree m ain age cat egories groups defined in relat ion t o t he approxim at e st art and end of econom ic act ivit y at t he age of 15 at present usually 65. I n our art icle we com pare following age groups: 0 – 19, 20 – 64 and 65 + ( Fig. 1) .

Fig. 1: Types of com m unes according t o t he basic populat ion age groups in Slovakia, 2009. Source: St at ist ical Office of Slovak ia, 2011.

10


3.1 Ageing from bot t om The share of children and young people up t o t he age of 20 in t he populat ion const ant ly decreased since 1960, and suppose t hat in 2030 it will be lower t han t he share of seniors over t he age of 65 + . The proport ion of age cat egory group 0 – 19 in Slovak populat ion has r apidly dim inished from 38.2 % ( 1945) t o 22.1 % ( 2009) . I n t he period 1945 – 2000, t he age group 0 – 19 m ade up m ore t han quart er of t he whole populat ion in Slovakia. As seen in t he Fig. 2, in t ot al num bers, t he m axim um of people in age group 0 – 19 was recorded in 1990, wit h m ore t han 1.770.000 young people in t he populat ion. The num ber of populat ion over 65 years has grown t o 665 t housand cit izens ( 2009) , t he proport ional growt h m eans from t he value of 6.6 % ( 1945) t o 12.3 % ( in 2009) . The populat ion of t he age of 20 – 64 st ands for t he product ive age group. I t s size increased as m any as t o 65.6 % at t he end of analyzed period 1945 – 2009. The t ot al num ber m oved from 1.892 t housands in 1945 t o 3.560 t housands in 2009.

Fig. 2: Developm ent of m ain age cat egories in Slovakia ( 1945- 2009) . Source: St at ist ical Office of Slovak ia, 2011.

3.2 Ageing from t op To specifying t he old populat ion cont ribut es t o t he viewpoint on t he up- t o- dat e age of ret irem ent , we have evaluat ed age groups of 65 – 74 years ( young old) , 75 – 84 ( old- old) and over 85 + ( oldest old) . Cat egories ( old- old) and ( oldest old) regist er t heir m axim um levels in 2009, which is caused by t he im provem ent of m ort alit y circum st ances, by t he prolongat ion of life expect ancy and by shift of t he younger age groups ( waves) . As seen in Fig. 3, proport ion of t he populat ion in age cat egory ( young old) had been increasing from 4.5 % in 1945 up t o 7.0 % in 2009. Since 1945, t he num ber of young old ( 65 – 74 years) in t he t ot al populat ion of Slovakia increased from 155 t housands in 1945 up t o 381 t housands inhabit ant s at t he end of 2009. I t is significant t hat m ent ioned cat egory of populat ion during t he m onit ored period increased m ore t han t wo t im es. The populat ion of t he age over 85 + years records t he proport ional growt h from 0.2 % ( 1945) t o 1.1 % ( 2009) . This age cat egory records t he fast est growt h of all t hree post - product ive evaluat ed cat egories in t he period 1945 – 2009. 11


Fig. 3: Post - product ive age groups in Slovakia, shar e in t ot al populat ion ( 19452009) . Source: St at ist ical Office of Slovak ia, 2011.

3.3 Age pyram ids Evaluat es of age pyram ids of Slovak populat ion was got t en following fact s. The pyram id of 1945 has got progressive t ype. The m aj or populat ion group in 1945 was bet ween 0 – 4 years old ( Fig. 4) . That populat ion w as born in period bet ween 1940 and 1945. From t he gender aspect , m ale populat ion groups, in com parison wit h fem ales, were num erous in t he all four young age groups in 2009 ( 0 – 4, 5 – 9, 10 – 14, 15 – 19) . The biggest difference bet ween t he num ber m ales and fem ales has exist ed in t he older age cat egories, for exam ple 70 – 74 ( 37.455 wom en m ore t han m en) and 75 – 79 ( 39.548 wom en m ore t han m en) . Am ong all cat egories, t he share of fem ale in 2009 is dom inant in t he cat egories, which are elder t han 45 – 49. Since w om en live longer t han m en do, t hey have dom inant represent at ion in t he oldest age cat egories. I n 2009 wit h com pare t o 1945 Slovak populat ion becom e older. I n fact , age st ruct ure pyram id of Slovak populat ion was t ransform ed from progressive in 1945 t o regressive t ype in 2009. I t is significant , t hat during t he m onit ored period we can also found declining of t he rat io of young people and increasing of t he port ion of old people. As we m ent ioned in 2009 port ion of young populat ion ( 0 – 19) in t ot al populat ion of Slovakia becom e less and t herefore t he pyram id got regressive form .

12


Fig. 4: Age st ruct ure diagram of Slovakia ( in 1945, 2009) and select ed dist rict s of Slovakia ( in 2009) . Source: St at ist ical Office of Slovak ia, 2011.

3.4 Average age I n 1995, Penev gave par am et ers for seven different st ages of age according t o which Slovakia was passing t hrough t wo st age of age since 1945. At t he beginning of observed period Slovak populat ion were in t he t hreshold of dem ographic ageing, when in 2009 reached t he five st age of dem ographic ageing. From 1960 t o 2009 average age of Slovak populat ion const ant ly increased. As seen in t he Table 2 from 1960 t o 2009 average age of fem ale populat ion increased for 8.7 years and of m ale populat ion increased for 7.5 years. I n observed period average age of fem ales in Slovakia is higher com pared t o m ales. Explanat ion m ight be t he fact t hat wom en are num erous because t hey live longer. I n Slovakia, at t he NUTS I V level, t here is relat ive uniform it y bet ween individual regions. I n 2009 alm ost 77 % of regions ( 61 unit s) have been ident ified in st age – dem ographic ageing ( Tab. 1) . Tab. 1: St ages of dem ographic aging and crit eria for t heir ident ificat ion. St ages 1. Ear ly dem ographic yout h 2. Dem ographic yout h 3. Dem ographic m at urat ion 4. Threshold of dem ographic ageing 5. Dem ographic ageing 6. Deep dem ographic ageing 7. Deepest dem ographic ageing Source: St at ist ical Office of Slovak ia, 2011.

Average age < 20 years 20 – 25 25 – 30 30 – 35 35 – 40 40 – 43 43 +

Num ber of unit s in 2009 0 0 0 4 61 13 1

For Europe, t he dem ographic process evaluat ed here can be described as a gradual shift from a societ y wit h quant it at ively dom inant younger cohort s t o a societ y in 13


which t he elderly from solid m aj orit y. This is best reflect ed when looking at t he average age (Kovačević et al. 2010, p. 73) . The st udy of average age of populat ion is essent ial because of reproduct ion abilit y of t his cat egory. I t is know t hat fem ale reproduct ive period ending at 45. From t he beginning of 21 st cent ury, an average age of Slovak fem ale populat ion was raised in crit ical lim it ( up t o 40 year) . Slovak populat ion has j ust com e t o 5 t h st age. Polit ics, econom ist s and dem ographers m ust find as soon as possible a solut ion for t he rapidly ageing of Slovak populat ion. Tab. 2: Dynam ics of changes of average age in Slovakia, 1960 – 2009. Census Male Fem ale

1960 29.3 31.4

1970

1980 1990 Populat ion of Slovakia 31.1 31.4 32.1 33.0 33.7 34.9

2000 34.4 37.5

2005 35.8 39.0

2009 36.8 40.1

Source: St at ist ical Office of Slovak ia, 2011.

3.5 Old dependency coefficient The old people dependence coefficient was clim bing gradually t hroughout m onit ored years. I n 2009 t here were alm ost 19 people elder t han 65 + per 100 econom ically act ive inhabit ant s. As seen in t he Fig. 4, during t he whole observed period 1945 – 2009 t he old people dependence in t he Slovakia increased from 11.9 % ( 1945) t o 18.7 % ( 2009) . The sit uat ion wit hin t he dist rict s of Slovakia was m uch different . High values of old people dependence coefficient we can observe in urban dist rict s of capit al of Slovakia – Brat islava and in t he sout h- west of Slovakia. West ern Slovakia is t he m ost urbanized region in Slovakia. Hungarian m inorit y, which has occupied sout hern Slovakia have had during t he observed years m ore int ensive aging t han Slovak populat ion. Dist rict Medzilaborce reached t he one of t he highest value of old people dependency coefficient . I t is locat ed in t he nort h- east ern Slovakia near t he Polish and Ukrainian border. Very negat ive phenom enon which at t acking t his region for several years is t he em igrat ion of young, product ive people. As we m ent ioned m aj orit y of m igrant s are predom inant ly young and educat ed people. On t he ot her hand lowest values have been m onit ored in nort h and east part of Slovakia. Concerning individual dist rict s, Brat islava I dist rict reached t he highest value of old dependence coefficient 29.1 % , t he lowest value was in t he dist rict of Košice I I I 7.1 % in 2009. 3.6 Yout h dependency coefficient Yout h dependency coefficient based on econom ic lim it s fell from 69.1 % t o 33.7 % in t he observed period 1945 – 2009 ( Fig. 5) . I n 2009, som e 34 young people were dependent on 100 m em bers of t he product ive populat ion. The m ost crit ical sit uat ion is in urban dist rict s of Brat islava and in t he sout h- west ern dist rict s t hat recorded t he lowest yout h dependency coefficient ( com prehensively lowest yout h dependency coefficient was in t he cit y dist rict s of Brat islava but t he fact is condit ioned by t he suburbanizat ion t endencies, when product ive populat ion of t he cit ies m ove int o it s suburbs) . Dist rict s like Banská Byst rica ( 27.1 % ) , Myj ava ( 27.2 % ) , Part izánske ( 28.8 % ) and Kom árno ( 29.2 % ) achieved t he lowest values. I n sam e year t he highest yout h dependency coefficient was achieved in t he dist rict s of Nám est ovo ( 56.6 % ) , Sabinov ( 55.4 % ) and Kežm arok ( 55.0 % ) . I t is result s of relat ively high level of fert ilit y t heir inhabit ant s, which belongs t o Gipsy m inorit y ( in case of east ern Slovakia – dist rict s like Kežm arok and Sabinov) and dist inct ive rural landscape of 14


region Orava and Kysuce which are locat ed in nort h part of Slovakia. This t endency is relat ed wit h t he fact t hat in t he early 1990s, nearly t he whole baby boom generat ion of t he 1970s becam e product ive. But if only lim it ed part of a baby boom generat ion ( aged above 20) m oved int o t he product ive sphere, t he dependency coefficient would be affect ed accordingly.

Fig. 5: Dynam ics of change young and old populat ion dependency rat io in Slovakia ( 1945 – 2009) . Source: St at ist ical Office of Slovakia, 2011

3.7 Overall dependency coefficient Overall dependency coefficient equally is going down during t he observed period, when in 2009 som e 100 m em bers of product ive populat ion carry t he burden im posed on t hem 53 econom ic young or old people. Overall dependency coefficient rem ains m ore or less st able while t he ot her coefficient s are gradually falling or increasing. 3.8 Aging index Aging index changed dram at ically over t he analyzed span of t im e. Aging index am id 1945 and 2009 enlarged from 17.2 % t o 55.5 % ( by econom ic st andards) . This t rend was caused by t he plum m et ing num ber of children and m oderat e growt h in t he num ber of t he eldest populat ion. I n 2009, t here were as m any as 56 inhabit ant s above 65 years of age per 100 people in pre- product ive age. According t o proj ect ion it can be expect ed t hat in 2050, will be m ore t han 170 inhabit ant s above 65 years of age per 100 people in pre- product ive age. Ageing index in t he Slovak dist rict s reached t he rat e from 22.9 % ( Nám est ovo) t o 125.3 % ( Brat islava I ) in 2009. High aging index in cert ain dist rict s of nort h- east ern Slovakia closely correlat es wit h t he et hnic and religious st ruct ure of populat ion. The young age st ruct ure of t hese unit s m aking a pot ent ial for t heir progressive reproduct ion ( m anifest ed in t he values of nat ural increase) . Such a charact er of t he developm ent is also support ed by specificit ies of t he nat ional and religious st ruct ure. An im pact of t he higher level of religiosit y is present in nort hern Slovakia ( m ore t han 90 % of t he populat ion in t he regions Kysuce and Orava are religious) . For Rom an Cat holic populat ion, which is 15


case of m ent ioned regions, is t ypical higher level of fert ilit y and fam ilies wit h m ore children. The m ost depressed sit uat ion is in t he big cit ies like Brat islava and Kosice, and in t he sout h- west part of count ry. Globally t he highest rat es of aging index were det ect ed in t he cit y dist rict s Brat islava I ( 125.3 % ) , I I I ( 100 % ) , I I ( 93.2 % ) , Myj ava ( 83.4 % ) and Nové Mest o nad Váhom ( 76.7 % ) . These dist rict s st and for com parat ively elder age st ruct ures. Sim ilarly like t he young dist rict s, we can t alk about t he im pact of t he age st ruct ure having a negat ive effect on t he int ensit y of fert ilit y and nat ural increase. The evidence can be found in t he negat ive values for t he nat ural increase of populat ion. Again, we can consider t he im pact of t he religiosit y and of t he nat ional st ruct ure on t he populat ion aging. The populat ions of Hungarian nat ionalit y wit h a higher proport ion in t he sout hern dist rict s m ost ly avow an affiliat ion wit h Reform ed Christ ian churches preferring a lover int ensit y of fert ilit y and m odel of single- child fam ily. 3.9 I nflow, out flow and subst it ut ion coefficient s I nflow and out flow coefficient s describe t he sit uat ion when a five- years- old age group of populat ion is preparing t o reach t he lower or upper age lim it m arking t he product ive life span. I nflow coefficient based on econom ic lim it s fell from 17.7 % t o 11.8 % in t he observed period 1945 – 2009 ( Fig. 6) . I t is clearly t hat t he inflow coefficient is going down t o t he low level of 12 people aged 20 – 24 per 100 inhabit ant s in t he reproduct ive years ( 20 – 64 years) . I t is significant t hat fewer and fewer people ent er t he product ive age. Out flow coefficient has been rising from 5.7 % ( in 1945) t o 7.9 % ( in 2009) . I t m eans t hat nearly 8 people aged 60 – 64 per 100 inhabit ant s in t he reproduct ive years ( 20 – 64 years) . I t is clearly t hat t here is a rise in t he num ber of people leaving t he product ive age for t he post - product ive one. While at t he beginning of t he period ( 1945) being invest igat ed t he inflow coefficient exceeded t he out flow coefficient by nearly 12 percent age point s, in 2009 it was only 3.9 percent age point s. I t m eans t he inflow of econom ically act ive people is st ill higher t han t he out flow; however, bot h t he coefficient s have been converging in t he past years. The subst it ut ion coefficient is t he sum of t he effect s of t he inflow and out flow coefficient s and it is also of a decreasing charact er. Subst it ut ion coefficient has been shrinking due t o changes in t he dem ographic sit uat ion of Slovakia during t he observed period, when t he generat ion ent ering t he product ive age has been cont inuously decreasing since 1945. When st udying t he burden on t he product ive populat ion, it is also suit able t o wat ch t he dynam ics of burden change, w hich is connect ed wit h t he inflow, out flow and subst it ut ion coefficient s. The inflow coefficient st at es t he rat io of pre- product ive populat ion which is j ust about t o ent er t he product ive populat ion t o t he product ive populat ion, t he out flow coefficient expresses t he rat io of t he post - product ive populat ion which is j ust leaving t he product ive populat ion t o t he product ive populat ion, and t he subst it ut ion coefficient declares t he rat io of t he num erat ors of t he previous coefficient s ( Vošta, Minařík 2007, 6) .

16


Fig. 6: Dynam ics of change out flow and inflow coefficient s in Slovakia ( 1945 – 2009) . Source: St at ist ical Office of Slovakia, 2011

4 . Conclu sion a nd sy nt h e sis Ages 0 – 19 and 65 + were im plem ent ed as crit eria for populat ion ageing analyzes. The dem ographic old age analyzes involved and index ( age index) of t he oldest group t o t he youngest group ( num ber of 65 + per 100 of ( 0 – 19s) . The ageing rat e was det erm ined wit h t he age index changes during 2001 – 2009. An at t em pt t o ident ify t he areas exposed t o ageing was based on t he value and growt h rat e of t he age index. To do t hat , t he 2009 index was divided int o t o t he t hree cat egories around t he average for t he whole area and t hree t ypes t he dem ographic old age were defined – high, m edium and low cat egories. Also t he growt h/ decrease rat es of t he index during 2001 – 2009 were divided int o t o t he t hree groups around t he dist rict s average ( Tab. 3 and 4) . Tab. 3: The level of populat ion ageing in 2009. The level of populat ion ageing The t ype of populat ion ageing High I Middle II Low III Source: St at ist ical Office of Slovak ia, 2011.

Elder ly - t o- y out h coefficient above 62.8 50.5 – 62.8 below 50.5

Tab. 4: The dynam ics of populat ion ageing process in 2001 – 2009. The dynam ics of populat ion The t ype of populat ion ageing ageing High a Middle b Low c Source: St at ist ical Office of Slovak ia, 2011.

Elder ly - t o- y out h coefficient variabilit y above 8.5 3.1 – 8.5 below 3.1

17


Tab. 5: Populat ion ageing hazard level 2001 – 2009. Populat ion ageing hazard level

Type

High

I

Middle

II

Low

III

Subt ype Ia Ib Ic IIa IIb IIc IIIa IIIb IIIc

The level of populat ion ageing high high high m iddle m iddle m iddle low low low

The dynam ics of populat ion ageing high m iddle low high m iddle low high m iddle low

Source: St at ist ical Office of Slovak ia, 2011.

As seen in t he Tab. 5 and Fig. 7, clust er t hree is com prised unit s wit h negat ive growt h, i. e. regions where t he populat ion was growing younger. The second clust er encom passed unit s wit h posit ive growt h rat es but below t he region average, while t he final group ( I ) had higher t han average growt h rat es indicat ing fast - ageing populat ion. Taking int o account t he current ageing in 2001 and t he growt h r at es during 2001 – 2009, t hree m ain t ypes of areas were defined, feat uring high, m edium and low risk of dem ographic senilit y ( Tab. 6) . Each t ype was furt her broken down int o t hree subt ype’s wit he different ageing rat es. Tab. 6: Populat ion ageing in dist rict s of Slovakia 2001 – 2009. Subt ype I a

Nam e of dist r ict ( level NUTS I V) Banská Byst r ica, Brat islava I , Brat islava I I , Brat islava I I I , Brat islav a I V, Det va, Lev ica, Medzilaborce, Myjava, Piešťany, Topoľčany, Trenčín, Turčianské Teplica, Zvolen, Žarnov ica ( 15) . I b Kom árno, Košice I V, Lipt ovsk ý Mikuláš, Nit ra, Nové Mest o nad Váhom , Nové Zám ky, Part izánske, Polt ár, Priev idza, Sobrance, Zlat é Moravce, Žiar nad Hr onom ( 12) I c ( 0) II a Brezno, Humenné, Ilava, Pezinok, Púchov, Trnava, Veľký Krtíš (7) II b Banská Št iavnica, Dunaj ská St reda, Hlohovec, Košice I , Košice I I , Krupina, Lučenec, Martin, Rožňava, Ružomberok, Senica (11) II c Bánovce nad Bebravou, Galanta, Malacky, Považská Bystrica, Skalica, Snina, Šaľa, Žilina ( 8) III a Brat islava V, Kysucké Nové Mest o, Revúca, Rim av ská Sobot a ( 4) III b Dolný Kubín, Gelnica, Trebišov ( 3) III c Bardejov, Bytča, Čadca, Kežmarok, Košice III, Košice- okolie, Levoča, Michalovce, Námestovo, Poprad, Prešov, Sabinov, Senec, Spišská Nová Ves, Stará Ľubovňa, Stropkov, Svidník, Tvrdošín, Vranov nad Topľou (19) Source: St at ist ical Office of Slovak ia, 2011.

Throughout 2001 – 2009, t he average proport ion of t he 65 + group in Slovakia increased from 11.4 t o 12.3 % , whilst t he proport ion of 0 – 19 decreased from 27.0 % t o 22.1 % . The elderly- t o- yout h coefficient variabilit y dropped ( i.e. t he age st ruct ure becam e younger) in 13 unit s locat ed in nort hern and east ern Slovakia. The youngest populat ion was det ect ed in following regions – evaluat ion according elderly- t o yout h coefficient variabilit y ( 2009 – 2001): Stará Ľubovňa (- 23.1 % ) , Spišská Nová Ves ( - 18.4 % ) , Tvrdošín ( - 13.3 % ) , Nám est ovo ( - 10.9 % ) and Kežm arok ( 10.3 % ) . The drops am id 0 % and m inus 5 % have been at t ained in Žilina, Čadca, Skalica, Senec, Sabinov, Stropkov, Košice- okolie and Levoča. On the ot her hand, t he fast est ageing populat ion was found in t he west ern regions of Slovakia – Púchov (20.8 %), Turčianské Teplice (19.8 %), Zvolen (19.7 %) and Brat islava I ( 19.4 % ) .

18


Fig. 7: Populat ion ageing hazard areas in Slovakia, 2009. Source: St at ist ical Office of Slovak ia, 2011.

St udying t he works which deal wit h regional aging processes in Slovakia, all t he aut hors agree t hat different capabilit y of regions t o adapt social and econom ic t ransform at ion is t he m ain reason for em erging and deepening of ageing disparit ies in Slovakia. This allows us t o present a classificat ion of regions of Slovakia according t o t heir aging condit ion. Anot her m et hod t hat was used for evaluat ion of aging processes in Slovak regions is aggregat e of ageing index, which consist s from following fact ors ( Tab. 7) . The first cat egory ( t ypes I . and I I .) includes dist rict s predom inant ly posit ioned in east ern and nort hern part of Slovakia ( Tab. 8 and Fig. 8) . I n st at ed cat egory are dist rict s wit h high level of crude live birt h rat e, high level of nat ural increase of populat ion. For t his cat egory are dist inct ive lower values of average age – com pare wit h Slovakia, high level of young populat ion dependency rat io and higher shar e of 0 – 19 year old in t ot al populat ion com pare wit h Slovakia. I nst ead we have a lot of dist rict s m ainly in west ern part of Slovakia ( t ypes I V. and V.) wit h t he highest values of crude deat h rat e, m ean age, ageing index and old populat ion dependency rat io. These regions exem plify unit s wit h t he oldest populat ion in Slovakia.

19


Tab. 7: I ndicat ors of aggregat e ageing index in Slovak regions – 2009. Nam e of coefficient ( 2009) m inim um rat e Crude live birt h rat e – num ber of Zlat é Morav ce ( 8.73 ‰ ) live birt hs per 1.000 populat ion Crude deat h rat e – num ber of Brat islava V ( 5.79 ‰ ) deat hs per 1.000 populat ion Nat ural increase/ decrease per Turčianske Teplice (- 3.94 ‰ ) 1.000 populat ion Average age Nám est ov o ( 32.2) Young populat ion dependency Brat islava V ( 18.9 % ) rat io Old populat ion dependency rat io Košice I I I ( 7.1 % ) Ageing index Nám est ov o 22.9 % ) Age index Brat islava I ( 79.8 % ) I nflow coefficient Košice I V ( 8.0 % ) Out flow coefficient Nám est ov o ( 5.7 % ) Share of 0 – 19 year old in t ot al Brat islava V ( 14.8 % ) populat ion Share of 65 + year old in t ot al Košice I I I ( 5.4 % ) populat ion Source: St at ist ical Office of Slovak ia, 2011.

m ax im um rat e Kežm arok ( 19.27 ‰ ) Brat islava I ( 13.67 ‰ ) Kežm arok ( 11.08 ‰ ) Brat islava I ( 44.3) Nám est ov o ( 56.6 % ) Brat islava I ( 29.1 % ) Brat islava I ( 125.3 % ) Nám est ov o ( 436.1 % ) Stará Ľubovňa (15.5 %) Košice I V ( 13.5 % ) Nám est ov o ( 33.4 % ) Brat islava I ( 19.1 % )

Tab. 8: Sy nt hesis of populat ion ageing in dist rict s of Slovakia – 2009. TYPE Nam e of dist r ict ( level NUTS I V) I. Námestovo, Kežmarok, Košice III, Stará Ľubovňa, Tvrdošín, Spišská Nová Ves, ( very low level of Sabinov, Levoča, Bratislava V, Vranov nad Topľou, Gelnica, Bardejov, Košice- ok olie, ageing) Čadca, Michalovce, Dolný Kubín (16). II. Prešov, Bytča, Trebišov, Poprad, Revúca, Sv idník, Senec, St r opkov , Hum enné, ( low level of Ružomberok, Rimavská Sobota, Malacky, Pezinok, Kysucké Nové Mesto, Rožňava, ageing) Košice I I ( 15) III. Považská Bystrica, Krupina, Snina, Šaľa, Púchov, Žilina, Skalica, Dunajská Streda, ( average level of Senica, Bánovce nad Bebravou, Lučenec, Banská Štiavnica, Košice I, Ilava, Galanta, ageing) Veľký Krtíš (16) I V. Brezno, Hlohovec, Mart in, Trnav a, Banská Byst r ica, Nit ra, Sobrance, Pr iev idza, ( high level of Zvolen, Poltár, Liptovský Mikuláš, Levice, Topoľčany, Det va, Žarnov ica, Žiar nad ageing) Hronom ( 16) V. Košice IV, Bratislava IV, Trenčín, Zlaté Moravce, Komárno, Partizánske, Nové ( very high level Zámky, Turčianske Teplice, Piešťany, Medzilaborce, Nové Mesto nad Váhom, of ageing) Myj ava, Brat islava I I , Brat islava I , Brat islava I I I ( 16) Source: St at ist ical Office of Slovak ia, 2011.

20


Fig. 8: Typology of dist rict s according t o t he select ed charact erist ics of aging in Slovakia, 2009. Source: St at ist ical Office of Slovak ia, 2011.

Re fe r e nce s Bucher, S. 2010: Demografické starnutie z pohľadu závislosti produktívnej populácie na Slovensku a v EÚ. I n: Dvacet let sociodem ografické t ransform ace (elektronický zdroj): sborník příspěvku XL. konference České demografické společnosti, Brno 27.- 28. května 2010 : Český štatistický úřad, ISSN 00118265, p. 204- 217. Dufek, J. 2006: Age st ruct ure and t he burden carried by t he product ive populat ion of t he Czech Republic. Agricult ural Econom ics, 52, I SSN 0139- 570X, p. 67- 75. Dufek, J., Minařík, B. 2009: Age of populat ion and t he developm ent of populat ion ageing in t he regions of t he Czech Republic. Agricult ural Econom ics – Czech, 55, I SSN 0139- 570X, p. 259- 270. Frat czak, E. 1993: Populat ion Aging in Poland – Select ed Aspect s. I nst it ut e of St at ist ics and Dem ography, Warsaw School of Econom ics – SGH O2- 554 Warsaw, Al. Niepodleglosci 162. I SBN 92- 9103- 019- 8, p. 4- 25. Kovačević, T. et al. 2010: Age- gender st ruct ure of Croat s in Voj vodina province. Hum an Geographies – Journal for St udies and Research in Hum an Geography ( 2010) 4.2, p. 63- 78. Kovář, J., Říhánek, Z. 1995: Typology of age structures in the Czech Republic (in Czech) . Dem ografie, Review for Populat ion Research, 38 ( 2) , I SSN 0011- 8265, p. 102- 112. Klinger, A. 1988: “ The Fut ure of Reproduct ion” . Fut ure changes in populat ion age st ruct ures. I I ASA Conference Papers. Luxem burg, p. 63- 97. Matlovič, R. 2005: Geografia obyvateľstva Slovenska so zreteľom na rómsku m inorit u. Fakult a hum anit ných a prírodných vied, Pr ešovská univerizt a, Prešov . p. 149- 155. 21


Mayers, G. C. 1994: “ Populat ion Growt h and Age St ruct ure: I m plicat ions and Policy responses” . European Populat ion Conference. Proceedings, vol. 1. Unit ed Nat ions, p. 207- 270. Mládek, J., Marenčáková, J. 2003: The differences and similarities between some populat ion processes and st ruct ures in Slovakia and Japan. Act a Universit at is Carolinae. Geographica, No. 1, I SBN 80- 246- 0981- 9, p. 288 – 299. Mládek, J., Káčerová, M. 2008: Analysis of population ageing in Slovakia: Time and regional dimensions. Geografický časopis, 60, 2008, 2, I SSN 1335- 1257, p. 179- 197. Pastor, K. 2002: Súčasný populačný vývoj na Slovensku a demografické teórie. Slovenská št at ist ika a dem ografia, 7, p. 45- 58. Penev, G. 1995: Stanovništo po starosti i polu, Stanovništvo i domaćinstva SR Jugoslavij e prem a popisu st anovništ va 1991, br. 47, Beograd, SZS, CDI - I DN. St at ist ical Office of t he Slovak Republic. Populat ion census 2001. Brat islava: St at ist ical Office of t he SR. Available on t he int ernet : ht t p: / / www.st at ist ics.sk, 20.12.2011 St at ist ical Office of t he Slovak Republic. Regional dat abase. ( open online dat abase) . Available on t he I nt ernet : ht t p: / / www.st at ist ics.sk. 20. 12. 2011 St oica, V. I . et al. 2010: The evolut ion of populat ion st ruct ure in t erm s of age groups and gender. Case st udy: The Sârât el drainage basin ( The Buzâu subcarpat hians) . Annals of t he Universit y of Craiova, Series Geography, Vol. 13 ( new series) . I SSN 2069 – 6191, p. 105- 113. Svat ošová, L. 2008: Analysis of t he dem ographic evolut ion in regions of CR ( in Czech). PEF ČZU, Praha, ISBN 978- 80- 213- 1813- 7, p. 703- 707. Valkovics, E. 1990: “ Populat ion Ageing in Perspect ive: Past and Fut ure Trends” . Populat ion in Developed Count ries. Proceedings of Conference, Vol. 1. Prague, Act a Dem ographica I X/ 1, p. 26- 82. Van De Kaa, D. J. 1987: Europe’s second dem ographic t ransit ion. Populat ion Bulet in, 42, p. 1- 57. Vošťa, L., Minařík, B. 2007: Demographic Ageing and the Development of Burden Carried by t he Product ive Populat ion in NUTS I I – Sout h- East . Act a oeconom ica et informatica (online), roč. 10, 2007, č. 1. ISSN 1336- 9261, p. 1- 5. Warnes, A. M. 1989: “ The Ageing of Populat ions” . I n: Hum an Ageing and Lat er Life. A. M. Warnes, ed. London, Arnold, 47- 66.

22


POPULATI ON AGI N G AN D CH AN GES I N TH E AGE STRUCTURE OF SLOVAKI A Sum m a r y Slovak populat ion at t ained t o t he fourt h st age of populat ion aging. For t his st age is significant st abilizat ion of fert ilit y and m ort alit y level occur. St abilizat ion of fert ilit y t akes place at replacem ent level or below. Populat ion st ruct ure becom es st able wit h preserving bot h – high num ber of t he aged populat ion and relat ively high proport ion of t he aged. Populat ion st ruct ure by 2009, highlight ed by t he populat ion pyram id, indicat es t he drast ic drop of young age groups, or t heir ult im at e absence – com pared wit h populat ion pyram id in 1945. Overall, we can claim , t hat all param et ers of age st ruct ure shows t hat populat ion in Slovakia is aging. According t o dat a from 2009, t he old aging index was m ore t han 3 t im es higher relat ed wit h t he beginning of observed period ( 1945) . I n Slovakia t here are t wo great er regional ent it ies wit h different populat ion aging grade. Pronounced region in t he sout h and sout hwest of Slovakia is described by a higher ageing grade. The second ent it y, spreading in t he nort h and east of Slovakia is t he region wit h relat ively lower ageing grade and wit h younger populat ion. Slight ly m ore sophist icat ed m easures of social and fam ilial dependency provide a bet t er pict ure of changes in t he dependency of t he young and t he older generat ions. These m easures, in cont rast t o t he age rat ios, t ake int o account cert ain changes in t he social circum st ances, m ore specifically in t he lengt h of educat ion and in labor force part icipat ion, besides shift s in t he age dist ribut ion. The m easures which relat e various groups of t he econom ically inact ive populat ion t o t he act ive populat ion describe changes in t he support burden m ore accurat ely, and also indicat e t hat , while dem ographic ageing necessarily involves an increase in t he proport ion of t he aged inact ive populat ion, t his increase is m ore or less com pensat ed for by t he decreasing burden im posed by t he young generat ions. The st ruct ure of t he curr ent by age suggest s t hat in t he near fut ure t he pace of dem ographic ageing will soon quicken due t o changes in t he level of fert ilit y, m ort alit y, m igrat ion as well as nat ural shift s in t he age st ruct ure of populat ion. As we can see in age st ruct ure diagram s of Slovakia large cohort s current ly of product ive age will gradually grow old but t hey will not be replaced in m iddle age by generat ions num erically equal in size. The num erically sm all cohort s t hat will soon ent er product ive age will not be able, nor evident ly even willing ( according t o polls on at t it udes t owards reproduct ion) , t o increase reproduct ion in order t o raise t he expect ed fert ilit y rat e, t hus t here will be a furt her decrease in t he share of children in t he populat ion. I n furt her, t here will be a lot of consequences of populat ion aging for societ y in t he field of educat ion syst em , labor supply, product ivit y and em ploym ent , social services, int ergenerat ion t ransfers, healt h and healt h care, age st ruct ure of populat ion and level of fert ilit y, m ort alit y and m igrat ion. The expect ed furt her im provem ent of m ort alit y condit ions will serve t o quicken t he pace of dem ographic ageing and t he Slovakia will gradually j oin t he ranks of count ries in which a high proport ion of t he populat ion is of post - product ive age. Populat ion ageing and t he post ponem ent or rej ect ion of m arriage by som e young people will lead t o a cont inuous increase in t he shar e of one- person households and fam ily households of young childless people. This will gradually lead t o a change in 23


t he way of life of an increasingly great er part of t he populat ion less, encum bered” by t he need t o care for children and t he cost s t hat involves. This will cert ainly be m ade apparent wit h st ronger consum er t endencies in t he populat ion of product ive age, but also in cont inuing consum pt ion am ong t he populat ion of post - product ive age. I n accordance wit h sim ilar findings in ot her cases, t he developm ent of all charact erist ics of t he burden on t he product ive populat ion in NUTS I V level of Slovak regions is very negat ive. When t here are som e m or e favorable values found in t he nort hern and east ern regions, at t he st at e level Slovak populat ion slowly get t ing older in all param et ers of dem ographic ageing. Due t o rising num ber of inhabit ant s at t he post - product ive age and, in cont rast , t he failing num ber of t he inhabit ant s at t he product ive age in spit e of a t em porary increase, t he negat ive t rend is reflect ed in t he increasing coefficient of t he burden on t he product ive populat ion im posed by t he post - product ive populat ion ( t he old people dependence coefficient ) . Populat ion ageing processes cause needs t o solve a whole line of social problem s, which recent ly m eet especially developed count ries.

24