review of 2015 trade performance1 - (IE) Singapore

MEDIA RELEASE

REVIEW OF 2015 TRADE PERFORMANCE 1 IMPORTANT: Unless otherwise stated, use of any information in this news release must be attributed to International Enterprise (IE) Singapore. To be embargoed till 08:00 am on Wednesday, 24 February 2016 MR No.: 004/16 Singapore, Wednesday, 24 February 2016 Highlights Total Merchandise Trade NORX

30

NODX Total Services Trade

Growth (%)

20 10 0 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 Year

-10 -20 -30



Singapore's total merchandise trade decreased by 9.5 per cent to reach S$884.1 billion in 2015, in contrast to the 0.1 per cent expansion in the previous year.



Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) contracted by 0.1 per cent in 2015, after a 1.5 per cent decline in 2014.



Non-oil re-exports (NORX) expanded by 1.9 per cent in 2015, following the preceding year's increase of 3.9 per cent.

1

Effective February 2014, data regarding the European Union (EU) shall be reported as EU 28 instead of EU 27, to accommodate the recent accession of Croatia to the EU. All top products/countries which are stated to have contributed towards the changes in trade figures are ranked by absolute change in level and not change in percentage. International Enterprise Singapore is the government agency driving Singapore’s external economy. The data in the media release is provided on an “as is” basis and is subject to updates. While every effort is made to ensure that the data is accurate, it is provided by IE Singapore without any representation or warranty. IE Singapore shall not be held responsible for any consequence arising from your reliance on any information provided by us.

IE Media Release 24 February ‘16 Unless otherwise stated, use of any information in this news release must be attributed to IE Singapore



The growth projection for 2016 is maintained at between 0.0 and 2.0 per cent for NODX and adjusted downwards to between -1.0 and 1.0 per cent for total merchandise trade.



Singapore’s total services trade rose by 0.3 per cent to reach S$389.2 billion in 2015, after the 8.1 per cent growth in the preceding year.

A. TOTAL MERCHANDISE TRADE

1.

Singapore’s total merchandise trade decreased by 9.5 per cent in 2015, in contrast to the

0.1 per cent expansion in the previous year. Total merchandise trade reached S$884.1 billion in 2015, lower than the previous year’s achievement of S$977.0 billion. Total merchandise exports contracted by 7.2 per cent in 2015 while merchandise imports declined by 12.1 per cent in the same period. 2.

The contraction in total merchandise trade was due to a decline in oil trade which

outweighed the growth in non-oil trade. Oil trade contracted by 36.0 per cent in 2015, after declining by 1.7 per cent in the preceding year. Non-oil trade increased by 0.4 per cent in 2015, following the 0.8 per cent growth in the previous year. Details on the performance of major merchandise trade components and key trading markets can be found in Annexes A, B and C. 3.

Total merchandise trade contracted by 9.5 per cent in 2015 which was higher than our

projected 2015 growth of -10.5 to -10.0 per cent. 4.

On a y-o-y basis, Singapore’s total merchandise trade declined by 7.7 per cent in 4Q 2015,

following a decrease of 8.5 per cent in the previous quarter. Total merchandise trade’s y-o-y decline in 4Q 2015 can be attributed to the decrease in oil trade which outweighed the growth in non-oil trade. Oil trade declined by 35.3 per cent in 4Q 2015, following the previous quarter’s contraction of 33.7 per cent. Non-oil trade grew by 0.7 per cent in 4Q 2015, following the previous quarter’s increase of 1.1 per cent.

5.

On a q-o-q SA basis, total merchandise trade declined by 2.7 per cent in 4Q 2015, following

the previous quarter’s contraction of 1.2 per cent.

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Singapore’s total merchandise trade declined y-o-y by 7.7 per cent… Per Cent (Y-o-Y) 10

Singapore's Merchandise Trade (Total Exports + Total Imports)

…to reach S$218.4 billion in 4Q 2015 S$ billion 300

Singapore's Merchandise Trade (Total Exports + Total Imports)

Total Trade 250

Total Trade

5 200 0 -5

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 13 14 15

150 100

-10

Total Exports Total Imports

50 Total Exports

-15

0 Total Imports

-20

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 13 14 15

B. NON-OIL EXPORTS 6.

Non-oil exports (NOX), which includes both NODX and NORX, expanded by 1.0 per cent

in 2015, following the preceding year’s 1.6 per cent rise. On a y-o-y basis, NOX grew by 0.3 per cent in 4Q 2015, after the previous quarter’s increase of 0.1 per cent. On a q-o-q SA basis, NOX rose by 1.1 per cent in 4Q 2015, following the 0.1 per cent growth in 3Q 2015.

C. NON-OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS

7.

NODX contracted by 0.1 per cent in 2015, following the preceding year’s decline of 1.5

per cent, due to lower exports of non-electronic NODX which outweighed the increase in electronic NODX. NODX declined by 0.1 per cent in 2015 which was lower than our projected 2015 growth of 0.5 to 1.0 per cent.

8.

Electronic NODX expanded by 0.5 per cent in 2015, compared to the 9.4 per cent

contraction in the previous year. Non-electronic NODX decreased by 0.4 per cent in 2015, compared to the 2.4 per cent increase in 2014.

9.

On a y-o-y basis, NODX contracted by 3.5 per cent in 4Q 2015, following the previous

quarter’s decrease of 2.2 per cent, on lower shipments of both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports decreased by 1.0 per cent in 4Q 2015, in contrast to the previous quarter’s 1.8 per cent expansion. Non-electronic NODX declined by 4.6 per cent in 4Q 2015, after the 3.9 per cent contraction in the previous quarter.

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NODX contracted by 3.5 per cent in 4Q 2015

50

Per Cent (Y-o-Y) 25

40

20

30

15

20

10

10

5

0

0

S$ billion

Non-Oil Domestic Exports

-10

-5

-20

Growth (RHS)

-30

-10 -15

-40

-20 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 13 14 15

10.

On a q-o-q SA basis, NODX declined by 2.8 per cent in 4Q 2015, following the 0.9 per cent

decrease in 3Q 2015, on lower shipments of both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports contracted on a q-o-q SA basis by 3.1 per cent in 4Q 2015, compared to the previous quarter’s 2.9 per cent rise. Non-electronic NODX declined by 2.6 per cent in 4Q 2015, following the 2.4 per cent decrease in the previous quarter. Products

Electronic Products 11.

Domestic exports of electronic products (comprising 30.1 per cent of NODX) increased by

0.5 per cent in 2015, in contrast to the previous year’s decrease of 9.4 per cent. The expansion in electronic NODX was largely contributed by PCs (+37.1 per cent), ICs (+5.0 per cent) and telecommunications equipment (+52.8 per cent) (See Annex E).

12.

On a y-o-y basis, domestic exports of electronic products contracted by 1.0 per cent in

4Q 2015, compared to the increase of 1.8 per cent in the previous quarter. The decrease in electronic NODX can be attributed to lower domestic exports of ICs (-7.4 per cent), parts of PCs (-11.9 per cent) and disk drives (-16.0 per cent). Non-Electronic Products 13.

Domestic exports of non-electronic products (comprising 69.9 per cent of NODX)

contracted by 0.4 per cent in 2015, compared to the previous year’s increment of 2.4 per cent. The decline in non-electronic NODX was due to petrochemicals (-14.9 per cent), primary chemicals (-18.5 per cent) and non-monetary gold (-31.7 per cent) (See Annex E). Page 4 of 10


14.

On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NODX decreased by 4.6 per cent in 4Q 2015, following

the previous quarter’s contraction of 3.9 per cent. The decline in non-electronic NODX can be attributed to lower domestic exports of petrochemicals (-10.2 per cent), primary chemicals (-25.5 per cent) and pumps (-45.5 per cent). … while non-electronic NODX contracted by 4.6 per cent

In 4Q 2015, electronic NODX decreased by 1.0 per cent… S$ billion

S$ billion

20

Per Cent (Y-o-Y) 20

35

35

15

15

30

30

10

10

25

25

20

20

5

5

15

15

0

0

10

10

-5

-5

5

5

0

0

-10

-10

-15

-15

-10

-20

-15

NODX: Electronics

Growth (RHS) -20

NODX: Non-Electronics

Per Cent (Y-o-Y)

-5

-5 Growth (RHS)

-10 -15

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 13 14 15

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 13 14 15

Markets for Merchandise Exports

15.

NODX to all top markets, except the US, the EU 28, Thailand, Hong Kong and South Korea,

declined in 2015. The biggest contributors to the contraction in 2015 were China (-6.4 per cent), Taiwan (-9.9 per cent) and Indonesia (-10.1 per cent).

Non-oil Domestic Exports to Top Markets (% Growth) Top Market

NODX

China Taiwan Indonesia Malaysia Japan South Korea Hong Kong

2014 8.3 4.7 -4.4 6.9 -7.0 -4.4 -22.8

2015 -6.4 -9.9 -10.1 -2.6 -0.6 3.4 2.3

Thailand EU 28 US

-2.0 -4.0 -2.1

4.7 4.2 6.5

Electronic NODX 2014 2015 -4.2 -8.4 13.9 -15.6 -17.8 -8.1 6.0 8.6 -19.4 -5.3 -11.8 13.8 -16.7 8.2 -8.5 -25.5 -18.4

20.6 -9.9 -3.3

Non-Electronic NODX 2014 2015 14.8 -5.5 -7.6 -0.4 -2.2 -10.4 7.3 -7.7 0.7 1.8 -0.9 -0.9 -32.2 -9.0 1.9 3.5 6.7

-3.7 7.8 10.6

Page 5 of 10


16.

Electronic NODX to Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaysia and South Korea increased in 2015.

The biggest contributors to the electronic NODX expansion were Hong Kong (+8.2 per cent), Thailand (+20.6 per cent) and Malaysia (+8.6 per cent). Top three products contributing to the increase in electronic NODX for each relevant top market are provided in the table below. Top Products Contributing to the Increase in Electronic NODX to Top Markets (% Growth) Top Market

Top Product

Top Products Contributing to the Increase in Electronic NODX 2015 2015 Second Third Product Product (% Growth) (% Growth)

2015 (% Growth)

ICs

+35.6

PCs

+55.9

Telecommunications Equipment

+74.5

Thailand

Disk Media Products

+106.6

ICs

+62.5

Diodes & Transistors

+87.6

Malaysia

Disk Media Products

+409.6

Diodes & Transistors

+104.7

ICs

+5.2

ICs

+22.8

PCs

+30.5

Disk Drives

+58.8

Hong Kong

South Korea

17.

Non-electronic NODX to China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand, South Korea

and Taiwan contracted in 2015. The biggest contributors to the decline in non-electronic NODX were China (-5.5 per cent), Indonesia (-10.4 per cent) and Malaysia (-7.7 per cent). Top three products contributing to the decrease in non-electronic NODX for each relevant top market are provided in the table below. Top Products Contributing to the Decrease in Non-Electronic NODX to Top Markets (% Growth) Top Products Contributing to the Decrease in Non-Electronic NODX 2015 (% Growth)

Third Product

2015 (% Growth)

-27.0

Household Goods

-95.5

-91.5

Iron or Steel Scrap

-67.8

Measuring Instruments

-42.3

Primary Chemicals

-29.4

-31.9

Specialised Machinery

-40.7

Petrochemicals

-20.6

Primary Chemicals

-21.4

South Korea

Petrochemicals

-45.7

Medical Apparatus

-56.8

Pumps for Liquids

-83.4

Taiwan

Petrochemicals

-24.3

Non-Monetary Gold

-36.9

Primary Chemicals

-24.1

Top Product

2015 (% Growth)

China

Petrochemicals

-19.2

Indonesia

Petrochemicals

-16.2

Malaysia

Petrochemicals

-11.6

Hong Kong

Petrochemicals

Thailand

Top Market

Second Product Primary Chemicals Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles

Non-Monetary Gold Civil Engineering Equipment Parts

-41.5

-14.9

Page 6 of 10


D. NON-OIL RE-EXPORTS 18.

NORX expanded by 1.9 per cent in 2015, after a rise of 3.9 per cent in the previous year.

Electronic re-exports increased by 3.6 per cent in 2015, following the previous year’s growth of 4.5 per cent, on higher re-exports of telecommunications equipment (+29.7 per cent), diodes & transistors (+15.6 per cent) and ICs (+1.1 per cent). Non-electronic NORX had a flat growth in 2015, following the preceding year’s increase of 3.2 per cent, on higher re-exports of aircraft parts (+24.9 per cent), nickel (+95.6 per cent) and electrical machinery (+22.3 per cent). Details on the performance of key NORX markets can be found in Annex F.

19.

On a y-o-y basis, NORX expanded by 2.8 per cent in 4Q 2015, after the 1.8 per cent

increase in the previous quarter. The y-o-y rise in NORX can be attributed to higher shipments of both electronic and non-electronic NORX. Electronic NORX grew by 3.6 per cent in 4Q 2015, following the previous quarter’s increment of 4.4 per cent. The increase in electronic NORX was due to higher re-exports of telecommunications equipment (+24.2 per cent), diodes & transistors (+37.2 per cent) and disk media products (+51.0 per cent). Non-electronic NORX grew by 2.0 per cent in 4Q 2015, in contrast to the previous quarter’s decrease of 0.9 per cent. The expansion in non-electronic NORX was due to higher re-exports of aircraft parts (+50.6 per cent), pharmaceuticals (+48.7 per cent) and non-electric engines & motors (+24.7 per cent). NORX expanded by 2.8 per cent y-o-y in 4Q 2015 S$ billion

Non-Oil Re-Exports

70

Per Cent (Y-o-Y) 20

60 15

50 40

10

30 20

5

10 0

0 -10

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 13 14 15

-5

-20 -30

20.

Growth (RHS)

-10

On a q-o-q SA basis, NORX grew by 3.9 per cent in 4Q 2015, after the previous quarter’s

expansion of 0.7 per cent. Electronic re-exports grew on a q-o-q SA basis by 3.0 per cent in 4Q 2015, following the previous quarter’s 1.7 per cent increase. Non-electronic NORX rose by 4.9 per cent in 4Q 2015, compared to the 0.4 per cent decrease in the previous quarter.

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E. OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS 21.

Oil domestic exports contracted by 32.2 per cent in 2015, in contrast to the 0.5 per cent

increase in the previous year. The decrease in oil domestic exports was due to lower shipments of oil to Malaysia (-33.6 per cent), Indonesia (-34.3 per cent) and Australia (-47.8 per cent). In volume terms, oil domestic exports rose by 6.8 per cent in 2015, after posting a growth of 7.2 per cent in 2014 (See Annex G).

22.

On a y-o-y basis, oil domestic exports contracted by 29.9 per cent in 4Q 2015, following

the decline of 32.6 per cent in the previous quarter. In volume terms, oil domestic exports expanded by 8.0 per cent in 4Q 2015, after the growth of 10.4 per cent in the previous quarter. On a q-o-q SA basis, oil domestic exports contracted by 17.1 per cent in 4Q 2015, following the decline of 5.8 per cent in the previous quarter.

F. OIL RE-EXPORTS 23.

Oil re-exports contracted by 41.3 per cent in 2015, following the 14.1 per cent decrease in

the previous year. The decline in oil re-exports was mainly due to Indonesia (-48.0 per cent), Malaysia (-51.4 per cent) and Australia (-34.6 per cent). In volume terms, oil re-exports expanded by 1.8 per cent in 2015, in contrast to the previous year’s decrease of 7.9 per cent.

24.

On a y-o-y basis, oil re-exports declined by 27.7 per cent in 4Q 2015, after decreasing by

38.7 per cent in 3Q 2015. In volume terms, oil re-exports increased by 19.7 per cent in 4Q 2015, following the 12.5 per cent expansion in 3Q 2015. On a q-o-q SA basis, oil re-exports decreased by 2.8 per cent in 4Q 2015, following the previous quarter’s contraction of 16.6 per cent.

G. OUTLOOK FOR MERCHANDISE TRADE AND NODX IN 2016

25.

The global economic outlook has softened since the start of the year and the IMF

downgraded its global growth forecast for 2016 from 3.6 per cent to 3.4 per cent in its latest January 2016 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update. Nonetheless, global growth is still expected to be marginally better than in 2015 with most economies contributing more to global growth. However, lower commodity prices, in particular the continued decline in oil prices, is expected to weigh on the value of total trade. Taking all these into consideration, the 2016 growth projection is maintained at between 0.0 and 2.0 per cent for NODX and adjusted downwards to between -1.0 and 1.0 per cent for total merchandise trade.

Page 8 of 10


H. TOTAL SERVICES TRADE2 26.

Singapore’s total services trade 3 expanded by 0.3 per cent in 2015, following the 8.1

per cent increase recorded in the previous year. Total services trade reached S$389.2 billion for the year, up from S$388.0 billion in 2014. Total services exports rose by 0.5 per cent in 2015 while services imports grew by 0.1 per cent in the same period (see Annexes H and I).

27.

On a y-o-y basis, Singapore’s total services trade declined by 0.3 per cent in 4Q 2015,

after an expansion of 1.1 per cent in the previous quarter.

I. SERVICES EXPORTS

28.

Services exports rose by 0.5 per cent in 2015, after the preceding year’s 8.8 per cent

increase. On a y-o-y basis, exports of services had flat growth in 4Q 2015 following the 1.4 per cent expansion in the preceding quarter. The growth in services exports4 can be attributed to the expansion in maintenance and repair services (+9.0 per cent), insurance (+6.8 per cent) and telecommunications, computer & information (+2.8 per cent).

______________________________________

2

3

4

The latest annual and quarterly estimates on services trade are compiled based on the best available data at the time of first release and subject to revisions. Total services trade consists of services exports and services imports. Exports of services refer to the value of cross-border services provided by residents to non-residents, while imports of services refer to the value of cross-border services provided by non-residents to residents. For further information and detailed descriptions of all various major services categories, please refer to the latest publication on Singapore’s International Trade in Services, available on the Statistics Singapore website (http://www.singstat.gov.sg).

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For media enquiries, please contact: Ms Cassandra Wong, Manager, Corporate Communications Group, IE Singapore Tel: +65 6433 4618 Fax: +65 6337 6898 Email: [email protected] Editors kindly note: Merchandise trade statistics released by IE Singapore are proprietary data and therefore copyright belongs to IE Singapore. Any use of the information provided herein must therefore be attributed to IE Singapore. Trade in services statistics are compiled by the Singapore Department of Statistics. Please accredit the Singapore Department of Statistics as the source for any use of the data. StatLink Online reports listing 5-year data (values & volumes) on Singapore's trade in terms of countries and commodities https://statlink.iesingapore.gov.sg About International Enterprise Singapore International Enterprise (IE) Singapore is the government agency driving Singapore’s external economy. We spearhead the overseas growth of Singapore-based companies and promote international trade. Our vision is a thriving business hub in Singapore with Globally Competitive Companies and leading international traders. IE Singapore attracts global commodities traders to establish their global or Asian home base in Singapore. Today, Singapore is a thriving trading hub with a complete ecosystem for the energy, agri-commodities and metals & minerals trading clusters. Through our Global Company Partnership and Market Readiness Assistance, we also work with Singapore-based companies in their various stages of growth towards being globally competitive. Our global network of overseas centres in over 35 locations provides the necessary connections in many developed and emerging markets. Visit www.iesingapore.com for more information.

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