REVIEW OF 3Q 2013 TRADE PERFORMANCE ... - (IE) Singapore

MEDIA RELEASE

REVIEW OF 3Q 2013 TRADE PERFORMANCE

1

AND

OUTLOOK FOR 2014 IMPORTANT: Unless otherwise stated, use of any information in this news release must be attributed to International Enterprise (IE) Singapore.

Embargoed until 8.00 a.m. on Thursday, 21 November 2013 MR No.: 043/13 Singapore, Thursday, 21 November 2013 Highlights Total Trade

25

NODX

NORX

20

Y-O-Y Growth (%)

15 10 5

0 -5

Q3 10

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3 11

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3 12

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3 13

-10

-15



Total trade rebounded to a positive year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 6.0 per cent in 3Q 2013.



Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) declined y-o-y by 3.3 per cent in 3Q 2013 while nonoil re-exports (NORX) has posted a rise of 11.7 per cent, the second consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.



Total trade and NODX forecasts for 2013 are revised to between 1.0 and 2.0 per cent and between -5.0 and -4.0 per cent respectively.



In 2014, total trade and NODX are expected to grow by between 1.0 and 3.0 per cent.

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Definitions for certain product categories have been revised for reports containing data from July 2010 onwards. The revised definitions follow international guidelines. All top products/countries which are stated to have contributed towards the changes in trade figures are ranked by magnitude of absolute change in level and not by magnitude of percentage change. International Enterprise Singapore is the government agency driving Singapore’s external economy. The data in the media release is provided on an “as is” and “as available” basis. While every effort is made to ensure that the data is accurate, it is provided by IE Singapore without any representation or warranty. IE Singapore shall not be held responsible for any consequence arising from your reliance on any information provided by us.

IE Media Release 21 Nov 13 Unless otherwise stated, use of any information in this news release must be attributed to IE Singapore

A. TOTAL TRADE

1.

On a y-o-y basis, Singapore’s total external trade rose by 6.0 per cent in 3Q 2013,

after the previous quarter’s decrease of 2.0 per cent. The level of total trade reached S$254 billion in 3Q 2013, higher than the previous quarter’s S$246 billion. Total exports and total imports grew y-o-y by 6.1 per cent and 5.9 per cent respectively in 3Q 2013. 2.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted (q-o-q SA) basis, Singapore’s total

external trade rose y-o-y by 1.7 per cent in 3Q 2013, after a 4.0 per cent rise in the preceding quarter.

3.

Total trade’s y-o-y increase in 3Q 2013 can be attributed to the expansion in both

oil and non-oil trade. Oil trade grew y-o-y by 10.9 per cent in 3Q 2013, after a contraction of 10.8 per cent in the previous quarter. Non-oil trade rose y-o-y by 4.1 per cent in 3Q 2013, following the 1.7 per cent increase in 2Q 2013. Details on the performance of major trade components and key trading markets can be found in Annexes A, B and C. Singapore’s external trade rose y-o-y by 6.0 per cent…

4.

…to reach S$254 billion in 3Q 2013

Exports grew y-o-y by 6.1 per cent in 3Q 2013, after decreasing by 0.2 per cent in

the previous quarter. The y-o-y increase in exports was due to the expansion in both oil and non-oil exports. Oil exports rose y-o-y by 10.2 per cent in 3Q 2013, after a contraction of 11.6 per cent in the previous quarter. Non-oil exports expanded y-o-y by 4.7 per cent in 3Q 2013, following the 4.0 per cent growth in 2Q 2013; the second consecutive quarter of increase.

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B. NON-OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS

5.

On a y-o-y basis, NODX declined by 3.3 per cent in 3Q 2013, following the previous

quarter’s 5.2 per cent contraction, on lower shipments of both electronic and non-electronic NODX. 6.

Electronic domestic exports decreased y-o-y by 8.7 per cent in 3Q 2013, after the

previous quarter’s 11.5 per cent contraction. Non-electronic NODX declined by 0.6 per cent in 3Q 2013, following the 1.9 per cent decrease in the previous quarter.

7.

On a q-o-q SA basis, NODX contracted by 3.1 per cent in 3Q 2013, after posting a

growth of 5.5 per cent in the preceding quarter.

8.

While NODX to China, the US, Hong Kong and Thailand rose y-o-y, NODX to all

the rest of the top markets declined in 3Q 2013. The biggest contributors to the y-o-y NODX decrease in the quarter were the EU 27, South Korea and Taiwan. Specifically, NODX to the EU 27 contracted by 29.1 per cent in 3Q 2013, following the previous quarter’s decline of 19.8 per cent. NODX to South Korea also decreased by 33.4 per cent in 3Q 2013, after the previous quarter’s contraction of 31.5 per cent. NODX to Taiwan declined by 13.3 per cent in 3Q 2013, following the 0.2 per cent decrease in the previous quarter (See Annex D).

NODX decreased y-o-y by 3.3 per cent in 3Q 2013

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Products

9.

Electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, domestic exports of electronics (comprising

31.8 per cent of NODX2) declined by 8.7 per cent in 3Q 2013, following the decrease of 11.5 per cent in the previous quarter. The contraction in electronic NODX can be attributed to lower domestic exports of ICs (-9.2 per cent), parts of PCs (-23.8 per cent) and disk media products (-26.3 per cent) (See Annex E).

In 3Q 2013, electronic NODX contracted y-o-y by 8.7 per cent…

… while non-electronic NODX declined y-o-y by 0.6 per cent

. 10.

Non-electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, domestic exports of non-electronics

(comprising 68.2 per cent of NODX3) decreased by 0.6 per cent in 3Q 2013, after a decline of 1.9 per cent in the previous quarter. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was led by lower domestic exports of pharmaceuticals (-35.4 per cent), specialised machinery (-17.6 per cent) and aromatic chemicals (-45.3 per cent) (See Annex E).

C. OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS

11.

On a y-o-y basis, oil domestic exports rose by 17.9 per cent in 3Q 2013, after

decreasing by 10.7 per cent in the preceding quarter. In volume terms, oil domestic exports rose by 21.4 per cent in 3Q 2013, in contrast to the 3.0 per cent decline in 2Q 2013 (See Annex F).

12.

On a q-o-q SA basis, oil domestic exports rose by 16.5 per cent in 3Q 2013, after

the previous quarter’s decrease of 9.6 per cent. 2 3

Cumulative figure from 1Q to 3Q 2013. Cumulative figure from 1Q to 3Q 2013.

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D. NON-OIL RE-EXPORTS

13.

On a y-o-y basis, NORX expanded by 11.7 per cent in 3Q 2013, after the previous

quarter’s rise of 12.2 per cent. The NORX growth can be attributed to the expansion in both electronic and non-electronic NORX. 14.

Electronic NORX increased by 19.7 per cent in 3Q 2013, after the 16.3 per cent rise

posted in the preceding quarter, due to higher re-exports of ICs (+28.1 per cent), parts of ICs (+38.8 per cent) and telecommunications equipment (+12.1 per cent). Non-electronic NORX grew by 3.9 per cent in 3Q 2013, after the previous quarter’s expansion of 8.2 per cent. The rise in non-electronic NORX was due to higher re-exports of non-electric engines & motors (+54.7 per cent), jewellery (+47.2 per cent) and nickel (+414.4 per cent).

15.

On a q-o-q SA basis, NORX declined by 1.7 per cent in 3Q 2013, in contrast to the

previous quarter’s growth of 12.5 per cent. NORX rose y-o-y by 11.7 per cent in 3Q 2013 S$ billion 60

Non-Oil Re-Exports Growth (RHS)

Per Cent (Y-o-Y) 30

50 40

20

30 20

10

10 0 -10

0 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 10 11 12 13

-20

16.

-10

While NORX to Indonesia contracted y-o-y, NORX to the rest of the top markets

rose. In particular, the markets making the largest contributions to the y-o-y NORX increase were China, South Korea and the US. NORX to China expanded by 31.5 per cent in 3Q 2013, following the 12.4 per cent rise in the previous quarter. NORX to South Korea also grew by 53.9 per cent in the quarter, after the 17.6 per cent increase in 2Q 2013. NORX to the US rose by 30.3 per cent in 3Q 2013, following the previous quarter’s expansion of 19.7 per cent (See Annex G).

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E. OUTLOOK FOR 4Q 2013 AND YEAR 2014

17.

The first nine months of 2013 saw y-o-y declines of both total trade and NODX.

Total trade declined y-o-y by 1.8 per cent while NODX contracted by 7.1 per cent in the same period. NORX however, posted an expansion of 7.6 per cent in the same period. 18.

NODX y-o-y quarterly contraction has started to slow down. In line with this,

Singapore’s trade and NODX are expected to pick up in the last quarter of 2013. This is in tandem with the projected gradual recovery in global demand. 19.

In view of the weaker than expected performance of both total trade and NODX in

the first nine months of 2013, the 2013 projections for total trade and NODX are revised to between 1.0 and 2.0 per cent and between -5.0 and -4.0 per cent respectively. 20.

Total trade and NODX are projected to grow moderately by between 1.0 and 3.0 per

cent in 2014. 21.

These projections take into consideration the following factors: a) Global economy is expected to grow by 3.6 per cent in 2014 The IMF, in its latest October 2013 World Economic Outlook report, expects the global economy to grow by 3.6 per cent in 2014, after an expected growth of 2.9 per cent in 2013. Some uncertainties remain for the global outlook for 2014. In the US, the eventual tapering of QE3 and the debt ceiling issue might affect markets. In Europe, there could be a recurrence of sovereign debt crises in the peripheral economies. In China, policy adjustments to rebalance the economy might lead to unintended consequences of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in growth. Should any of these risks occur, Singapore's trade forecast would be lowered.

b) Weak recovery of the Eurozone economy The Eurozone economy is expected to grow by 1.0 per cent in 2014, after an expected 0.4 per cent decline in 2013. c) Moderate growth of the US economy The US economy is expected to post a moderate growth of 2.6 per cent in 2014, higher than 2013’s expected growth of 1.6 per cent. Downside risks in the US includes delay in the raising of the debt ceiling in Feb 2014 and tightening of fiscal conditions in the US.

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d) Moderate growth of the Asian economies Most Asian economies are expected to grow in 2014 at a slightly faster pace than 2013. However, China is expected to see slightly lower growth in 2014 compared to 2013 since it is in the process of rebalancing its economy. ---End---

_________________________________________ For media enquiries, please contact: Ms Janissa Ng Manager (Media), Corporate Communications Group DID : + 65 6433 4400 Email : [email protected] Editors kindly note: Trade statistics released by IE Singapore are proprietary data and therefore copyright belongs to IE Singapore. Any use of the information provided herein must therefore be attributed to IE Singapore.

StatLink Online reports listing 5-year data (values & volumes) on Singapore's trade in terms of countries and commodities https://statlink.iesingapore.gov.sg

About International Enterprise Singapore International Enterprise (IE) Singapore is the government agency driving Singapore’s external economy. For the past 30 years, we have been spearheading the overseas growth of Singapore-based companies and promoting international trade. Our vision is a thriving business hub in Singapore with Globally Competitive Companies and leading international traders. IE Singapore attracts global commodities traders to establish their global or Asian home base in Singapore. Today, Singapore is a thriving trading hub with a complete ecosystem for the energy, agri-commodities and metals & minerals trading clusters. Through our Global Company Partnership and Market Readiness Assistance, we also work with Singapore-based companies in their various stages of growth towards being globally competitive. Our global network of overseas centres in over 35 locations provides the necessary connections in many developed and emerging markets. Visit www.iesingapore.com for more information.

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