Revisioning progress

S P E Z I AL

Jahrtausendwende - Zeitenwechsel?

Coevolutionary Possibilities in the Third Millennium

Western people's belief in progress and ability to

Revisioning progress Auch am Anbruch des dritten Jahrtausends brauchen wir dringend Visionen. Diese können sich jedoch nicht mehr an der alten linearen Fortschrittsidee des Westens orientieren, die bisher Ökonomie und Gesellschaft prägte. Angesichts der bestehenden kulturellen Vielfalt ist ein „koevolutionärer Flickenteppich" als Ergebnis der dynamischen Interaktion von Kulturen und Ökosystemen das passende Leitbild der anbrechenden neuen Ära. Die ökologischen und sozialen Risiken des Ubergangs sind jedoch erheblich. Daher gilt es, sich neu öffnende Nischen für ein Vorantreiben der Veränderungen zu nutzen.

belief has defined the last two centuries. Western science, technology, social organization, and even religion were expected to provide all with a future increasingly free of material want and to foster international harmony. The idea of progress is linear and unifying. It casts our future in a manner improbably different from our past. History, I argue, can best be described as a process of cultures coevolving within and between themselves. We may be at a loss for dreams now because the linear vision of progress proved inoperable in a coevolutionary world.

persist and evolve with their own hopes for the

•

he third millennium arrives with a fraction

future. And with a population of 6 billion, our

Our understanding of development has drawn

T

Vort Richard B. Norgaard

Coevolutionary patchwork quilt

of the collective hope initiating the final

cultures are crowded together and overlapping.

on diverse metaphors of change. Economies

century of the second. Individuals still have pri-

So we need a meta-vision under which our multi-

have been portrayed to develop like embryos

vate hopes. There are proposals for economic

ple cultural hopes can prosper without threa-

grow, to go through stages of growth like the

incentives to harness private interest to specific

tening each other. Of course, we will need suffi-

morphogenesis of caterpillars into butterflies,

collective goals. But to dream of a really diffe-

cient global community to avoid global catas-

and to progressively improve through increases

rent and better future for all, however, is to risk

trophes. Yet global catastrophe will be less likely

in the accumulation of physical capital and

being labeled a relic of the past. Yet new collec-

when we are not all striving by the same techno-

human knowledge. These metaphors have every-

tive dreams are desperately needed. Our old

logical means to achieve the same economic

thing developing in a known direction. In con-

hopes for progress contradict how reality has

ends. Thus the meta-dream should both facilitate

trast to these, development can be portrayed as

unfolded and provide little basis for looking

multiple cultures doing things differently as well

a process of coevolution between knowledge,

ahead and guiding us collectively. We embrace

as provide the grounds for sufficient cooperati-

values, organizational, technological, and envi-

expanding material possibilities while struggling

on so we can be different in peace.

ronmental systems where the future is unknown

logies. We trumpet an information age and the

•

The Western idea of progress

system is related to each of the others, yet each

spread of democracy while trapped in spot info-

Every culture has a life story. Judeo-Christian-

is also changing and affecting change in the

mercials and corporate politics. We appeal to

with the unexpected effects of past new techno-

(Figure 1). In the coevolutionary portrayal, each

Islamic religions introduced a life story wherein

others. Deliberate innovations, chance discover-

rationality amidst science wars. We laud the glo-

the earth, plant and animal fife, and people were

ies, random changes, and chance introductions

bal village while rich and poor accelerate apart.

created separately and sequentially following

occur in each system which affect the fitness and

We cling to peace through cultural convergence

what came to be interpreted as a grand design.

hence the distribution and qualities of compo-

amidst on-going ethnic violence. Without a vis-

Western philosophers took this story several

nents in each of the other systems. Whether new

ion that has the possibility of moving humanity

steps further by imagining people and how they

components prove fit depends on the characte-

beyond the contradictions of old hopes and cur-

perceived and thought as outside of the world

ristics of each of the systems at the time. With

rent realities, contemplating the future neither

over which they had dominion, much like God

each system putting selective pressure on each

refreshes nor inspires. Without serviceable

was imagined. In this next imaging, God's grand

of the others, they coevolve in a manner where-

hopes, the future is old before it has arrived.

design awaited the advance of human know-

by each reflects the other. Coevolution explains

Thus I dream of a new dream. Compared to ear-

ledge. To facilitate human prediction and con-

how everything appears to be tightly locked

lier Utopian visions, mine is a meta-dream that

trol, the sequential authors of the Western nar-

together, yet everything also is changing.

allows others to fulfill different dreams. The

rative assumed universal underlying mechanical

Until merely a few centuries ago, the world

trouble with Utopian thinking was that it envisio-

relations between parts throughout nature. Even

could be thought of as a patchwork quilt of co-

ned a single future best for all. Perfection does

biology still advances largely by using the analo-

evolving cultures and ecosystems. The dominant

not take multiple forms. When we lived in sepa-

gy of a machine of hfeless parts. And economics,

coevolutionary processes occurred within pat-

rate cultures, our separate hopes of perfection

whether neoclassical or Marxist, addresses the

ches associated with specific human cultures.

were less prone to clash. During the 20th cen-

accumulation of material things rather than the

Boundaries, however, were neither distinct nor

tury the powerful declared a convergence

interconnectedness of people in human commu-

fixed within this coevolving mosaic. Knowledge,

toward one Utopia as many adopted the western

nities and nature. Progress is made by knowing

values, aspects of social organization, technolo-

belief in progress. Now, in spite of economic

more, gaining control over nature, and thereby

gies, and species spilled from the patches within

having more material things.

which they initially coevolved to become exotics

globalization, it is clear that separate cultures

10

infect others around the globe with the same

Ökologisches Wirtschaften 5-6/1999

Jahrtausendwende - Zeitenwechsel?

SPEZIAL

dividing learning into the many little disciplines

Figure 1: The Coevolutionary Development Process

that now can't speak to each other, let alone

Values

help us put the great picture together. But now science has multiple voices for another reason as well. Individual scientists and whole reseOrganization

Knowledge

arch institutions have accepted the task, increasingly consciously, of learning and speaking for special interests. In a positive feedback loop, teaching and research institutions have been losing public stature and broad

Environment - M -

Technology

support,

making them also ever more susceptible to and dependent on special interests.

Source: Norgaord 1994 (see reference)

The combination of sciencratic paralysis and

in other areas. Some of these exotics proved fit

forever be. Nevertheless, evidence accumulates

special interest science has created a void, an

as they arrived and thrived in their new areas,

that we are moving into another era. The idea of

opportunity for new things to coevolve. Filling

some adapted, and some died out. But to some

progress is now being actively contested in glo-

this niche, we are beginning to see a new under-

extent, they all influenced the subsequent coevo-

bal multicultural, epistemological discourses.

standing of how science could work. The best

lution of patch characteristics in their new areas,

Just how this age after the idea of progress will

example is the Intergovernmental Panel on Ch-

resetting the dynamics of the change in the com-

be defined is still open, but it will surely carry

mate Change. Astrophysicists, ecologists, ocea-

position of characteristics, their structural rela-

new possibilities as well as new risks for people

nographers, economists, and other specialists

tions, and spatial area. The plethora of combi-

and nature. I awake each day with the hope, and

not merely add together their findings but rather

nations within each patch kept the global pattern

even some anticipation, that another regime is

are learning interactively and making judgments

of coevolving species, myths, organization, and

emerging, that there will be new coevolutionary

collectively.

technology patchy, albeit a constantly changing,

possibilities after progress.

fuzzy, patchy.

A coevolutionary patchwork quilt may seem like

•

The coevolutionary patchwork quilt was subse-

an unusual dream, far from past dreams or

As progressive governance has declined over the

quently homogenized by the dominance of

popular extrapolations of history. For me, how-

past two decades, we have also seen thousands

western science, technology, social organization,

ever, it provides a lens on the contradictions of

of biologists switch from „being objective" and

and beliefs. Fossil hydrocarbons provided a new

modern life and a look into a possible future. In

letting change fall where it may to „having an

energy source which - with the advent of steam

spite of economic globalization, it is clear that

objective," the conservation of biological diver-

technologies, chemical industries, and later the

we are also in a period of reculturalization. Cul-

sity. Economists have joined with ecologists to

internal combustion engines - drove a „wedge"

tural and linguistic pluralism, religious diversity

develop an ecological economics. New partici-

in the coevolutionary process. This seemed to

and the breaking apart of nations along cultural

patory research techniques entail learning with

free people, at least in the short-run, from being

fault lines are all signs of coevolutionary possi-

local peoples, sharing in mutually designed and

interdependent with and coevolving with nature.

bilities.

implemented research and demonstration pro-

power, and with progress now self-evident, this

•

values and understandings. Conflicts are being

material advantage was soon sought by all. And

Science has historically played a central role as

belief in progress softened the acceptance of the

an authoritative, progressive voice in resolving

through the use of science juries as well as value

imperialism of Western science, technology,

public disputes. But the voice of science is neit-

juries. There is a lot of change going on that is

governance, economics, and religion.

her as monolithic nor simply a voice of a pro-

moving in an interesting direction.

gressive state. There is a popular understan-

The niche progressive governance once filled is

ding that science has not led to the control of

also being encroached upon by an explosion of

Now the simple gains of the short run are mixed

nature and, to the contrary, that nature's res-

non-governmental organizations (NGOs). This

with the complex consequences of the long run.

ponse to new technologies will likely be our

new form of social organization is substituting

Chmate change and biodiversity loss make it

demise. As we look to science for a broader

for loss of community, as well, and also evolving

clear that we are still coevolving with nature, just

interpretation of the human predicament, we

to fit entirely new niches in response to the pro-

over longer time periods and now in unfavorable

see both „sciencratic paralysis" between the

blems modern forms of organization have crea-

ways. The homogenization of cultures neither

disciplines and debates between scientists sup-

ted. We see a global „NGOization" with networks

proved so easy nor so desirable as expected.

ported by different interests. Since the enligh-

being formed between environmentalists, labo-

Unceasing outbreaks of war around a multitude

tenment there has been the presumption that

rers, and indigenous peoples. New forms of civil

of differences make it clear that unity has not

our analyses of small parts of reality would

society are coevolving to fit new spaces. No one

been won. Most people still seem to accept the

someday fit together because, of course, there

foresaw the success of this general form or all of

final convulsions of modernity as the way life will

is but one reality. That presumption justified

its emerging particulars. This new family of

Social organization coevolved with the new

•

Towards a new era

New role of science

Changing governance

jects. Diverse groups are also uniting to share resolved through new mediation techniques and

ÖkologischesVC'irtschaften5-6/1999

31

Jahrtausendwende - Zeitenwechsel?

SPEZIAL

organizational species is proving surprisingly

after some five centuries of dominance by the

powerful in the face of global capital. The fact

idea of progress. The coevolutionary understan-

that the World Bank can no longer work effec-

ding of process can contribute to this revisio-

tively without participating with NGOs and brin-

ning. It once again places us and how we think

ging in other speakers to their gatherings is a

inside a great life story among the animals and

positive development. We still, of course, have

plants with whom we share the mountains and

the World Bank. Power and central places have

valleys, rivers and oceans. The coevolutionary

not disappeared. And yet new things are hap-

cosmology stresses the communal nature of kno-

pening.

wing, making social life a process of sharing rather than of vote counting and enforcement, or

•

•

„EUROPAISCHE HARMONISIERUNG" ÖKOLOGISCHES WIRTSCHAFTEN 4 / 9 9

Der europäische Einigungsprozess stellt Insbesondere für die Umweltpolitik eine Herausforderung dar. Die unterschiedlichen Wertvorstellungen, Konventionen und Umweltgesetze müssen in Einklang gebracht werden. Kommt es dabei in den Hochstandardländern zu einem „race to the bottom" wie vielfach befürchtet oder gelingt eine Harmonisierung, die den Umweltschutz vorantreibt? Dieser Frage geht Ökologisches Wirtschaften am Beispiel der Abfallpolitik nach. Autorinnen aus mehreren Ländern beleuchten aus unterschiedlichen Blickwinkeln die vielfältige Dynamik dieses schwierigen Harmonisierungsprozesses.

^Ökologisches Wirtschaften ist das zentrale Forum für Umwelt und Wirtschaft im deutschsprachigen Raum. I ^ M ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ i t e u e p t und konzentrierte Beitrage geben einen guten Überblick über die aktuellen Eni i Theov . en Rahmenbedingungpn bis hinein in den konkreten №rie№chen Ablauf. JETZT

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Risks of transition ...

Transition periods are risky. This cannot be over

controlling our fives. It emphasizes the beauty of

stressed. National breakups have resulted in the

participating in and sustaining a coevolutionary

re-emergence of cultural warfare with disastrous

unfolding rather than the individual glory of

consequences for many. After centuries of

power and material accumulation. It values both

fighting over which economic banner to unify

nature and people. It draws upon recent advan-

under, we are ill-equipped to handle diversity as

ces in Western science as well as upon Western

a state of being and goal for the future. There are

values which have withstood the test of time. And

other risks as well. Both World Bank leaders and

most importantly, it gives legitimacy to and a phi-

environmentalists talk about sustainable deve-

losophy for interacting with the plurality of evol-

lopment as if all countries were as socially and

ving human cultures and their distinct yet chan-

politically stable as Costa Rica, which is the

ging life stories. This framing can contribute to

„Switzerland" of the Americas. Few modernists

the process of revisioning progress.

see the significant cultural, economic, and envi-

In this time of change, we need to identify where

ronmental consequences of social conflict within

positive changes are occurring as well as negati-

and between nations. We have many nations

ve developments so that we can participate

breaking apart and more that are likely going to

somewhat deliberately in history's unfolding. We

dissolve. We're going to experience more war.

must find spaces where we can work effectively,

These disruptions will have tremendous biologi-

sometimes simply to hide from destructive chan-

cal, cultural, and organizational consequences.

ge, but eventually to show a new direction, a new

It's especially risky because we can no longer

vision. As the collapse of progress occurs, we

pretend to share a common language of modern

need an alternative to total disaster. We can help

rationality, or common hopes to bring us

construct interesting spaces in the transition to a

together.

new world. It is unclear what this will be like, but

There is some chance, unfortunately, that our impoverished economic ideology of all social

I will be dreaming of and acting on a coevolutionary patchwork quilt of cultures.

organization being about voluntary exchange will succeed long enough to have serious impacts. I

Reference

don't think it will succeed over a very long peri-

Norgaord, Richard B.: Development Betrayed: The End of

od, but nomadic capital comes with tremendous

Progress and a Coevolutionary Revisioning of the Future.

risks in our overcrowded,

environmentally-

Routledge, London and New York, 1994.

stressed world. The development of the Asian financial crisis documents that we still think we are in the world we tried to establish after World War II. Old responses to current social and envi-

Der Autor Richard B. Norgaard ist Professor für Energie

ronmental problems will only exasperate our

sowie Agrar- und Ressourcenökonomie an der Uni-

situation. The lag in our interpretations of where

versity of California und Präsident der Internatio-

we are may be the greatest risk to coevolutionary

nal Society for Ecological Economics (ISEE).

potential at this time.

Kontakt: Energy and Resources Program, 310 Barrows Hall, University of California at

•

... and new opportunities

Drastic change has its risks, but there are also new opportunities. We need to start thinking about new, multi coevolutionary possibilities

32 Ökologisches Wirtschaften 5-6/1999

of technocrats determining right answers and

Berkeley, Berkeley, California 94720-3050, USA. Tel. 001-510642-3465, Fax -1085, E-mail: [email protected]

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