Risk and Crisis Communication For Disasters

Risk and Crisis Communication For Disasters Please feel free to adapt and use these slides, with proper credit to the source: “From material developed by Peter Sandman and Jody Lanard for the U.S. CDC, the World Health Organization, Health Canada, the Government of Singapore, the American Hygiene Association, and others.”

One definition of risk communication: "The interactive process of exchanging information and opinion among individuals, groups, and institutions involving multiple messages about the nature of risk...“* -- The National Research Council *(Note the emphasis on multi-directional communication!)

Risk: a traditional definition (one among many) The multiplication of Magnitude x Probability. How likely to happen?

How bad if it happens?

Outrage Factors (How normal people estimate most hazards) “safe”

“risky”

Voluntary Controlled by self Trustworthy sources Responsive process Familiar Not memorable No moral relevance Not dreaded Chronic

Involuntary Controlled by others Untrustworthy sources Unresponsive process Unfamiliar Memorable Moral relevance Dreaded Catastrophic

© Peter Sandman 1987, 2006 (Based on the risk perception work of Paul Slovic)

A new definition of risk: (for the purpose of communication planning)

Risk

A new definition of risk: Risk Hazard

A new definition of risk: Risk

Hazard Outrage (Please note: “outrage” can also stand for fear; shame; loss of face. It has different implications and expressions between and within different cultures. The concept we call “outrage” does not always mean the direct feeling and expression of indignation. It would be useful to find the right word to describe the part of the public’s perception of “risk” that does not relate to the technical hazard.)

A new “definition” of risk: Risk = Hazard + Outrage

(Peter Sandman’s formula!)

For technical people: Risk = f( H, O )

Four Kinds of Risk Communication First communication planning task: Diagnose which “communication environments” are relevant.

O U T R A G E *

Copyright  2003 Peter Sandman

HAZARD

Risk Communication FourFour kindsKinds of riskof communication 1. When people are ignoring a serious hazard

O U T R A G E

PUBLIC RELATIONS HEALTH & SAFETY EDUCATION ACTIVISM


HAZARD

Fourare Kinds of Risk Communication 1. When people ignoring a serious hazard, contin.

O U T R A G E


“Precaution Advocacy”

HAZARD

1. When Four peopleKinds are ignoring a serious hazard, contin. of Risk Communication

Warning: next comes a concept that generates enormous resistance: O U T R A G E



HAZARD

O U T R A G E

Four Kinds Risk Communication First, inform people – andofmobilize their concern to a level of fear or worry proportionate to the hazard.

(Officials hate the second half of this recommendation!!)

Or

F E A R



HAZARD

O U T R A G E

Then, help them hazard (“things Fourmanage Kinds ofthe Risk Communication they can do”), or else they will try to manage their fear (by way of denial, apathy, scoffing).

Or

F E A R



HAZARD

Fear Appeal Documentation

Four Kinds of Risk Communication

In other words… O U T R A G E Or

F E A R


HAZARD

Lower right hand circle, arrow


Four Kinds of Risk Communication O U T R A G E

OUTRAGE MANAGEMENT

Or


F E A R


HAZARD Upper Left Hand Circle

Four Kinds of Risk Communication O U T R A G E

OUTRAGE MANAGEMENT

Your Job: Inform people AND use outrage/fear management strategies to reduce their outrage or fear.

Or

F E A R


HAZARD

Four Kinds of Risk Communication In other words...

O or U T F R E A A G R E

OUTRAGE MANAGEMENT

HAZARD

Upper Left Hand Circle, Arrow



O U T R A G E

OUTRAGE MANAGEMENT


HAZARD

Copyright  2003 Peter Sandman Smiley Face


O U T R A G E

OUTRAGE MANAGEMENT


Copyright  2003 Peter Sandman Two Arrows

HAZARD

Three circles (adds crisis)

O U T R A G E


CRISIS COMMUNICATION

OUTRAGE MANAGEMENT


HAZARD


O U T R A G E


Crisis Communication

“We’ll get through this together”

HAZARD Get through this together

How bad is it? How sure are you? 1.

Don't over-reassure.

9/11 dust chasing people

9/11 overview dust

Don’t over-reassure – bad example: Mayor Bloomberg, early in the NY blackout of 2003

“I can tell you 100 percent sure that there is no evidence as of this moment whatsoever of any terrorism.” NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg talking to CNN anchor Kyra Phillips, 7:41 p.m., August 14, 2003

Bloomberg example don’t over-reassure

Quiz:

Bloomberg weasal words



What words “protect” him if he turns out wrong?

Bloomberg as of this moment

“…as of this moment…”

Answer:

What words did CNN run as a caption, while the Mayor spoke?

CNN crawl?

“???????”

For about ten minutes, CNN ran the words:

100% sure

“100% sure”

See Saw

How bad is it? How sure are you? 1. 2.

Subordinate Clause

Don't over-reassure. Put reassuring information in subordinate clauses.

U.S. CDC Director Julie Gerberding “subordinates” the good news "Even though there is no evidence that SARS comes from outer space, we're keeping an open mind.” -- Dr. Julie Gerberding, U.S. CDC copyright Peter Sandman and Jody Lanard 2006


3.

Don't over-reassure. Put reassuring information in subordinate clauses. Err on the alarming side.

Err Alarming Side

Early on in SARS, Dick Thompson errs on the alarming side. “One might think we are overreacting to the cases. But when you do not know the cause, when it strikes hospital staff, ands it certainly is moving at the speed of a jet, we are taking this very seriously.” – WHO’s Dick Thompson --From the risk communication Good Example file. (Don't aim for zero fear; err on the alarming side; acknowledge people's "anchoring frames.“) .

How bad is it? How sure are you? 4.

Acknowledge uncertainty.

Uncertainty

Warning people about uncertainty “We will learn things in the coming weeks that everyone will wish we had known when we started.” This became the U.S. CDC’s mantra after its early communication mistakes during the anthrax poisonings.


Acknowledge uncertainty. Share dilemmas.

Share Dilemmas

Minister Abbott’s Dilemma (and yours), continued “ It’s hard to discuss potential disasters outside people’s ordinary experience without generating the sort of lurid headlines which make some scoff and others panic… “ If a deadly flu pandemic ever seems imminent, no preparations will be enough. But if the current bird flu outbreaks in Asia gradually subside, the Government’s investment in a stockpile likely to be time-expired in five years will be the health equivalent of a redundant weapons system.” --from a May 2005 speech by Australia Minister of Health Tony Abbott

How bad is it? How sure are you? 4. 5. 6.

Acknowledge uncertainty. Share dilemmas. Acknowledge opinion diversity.

Opinion Diversity

How bad is it? How sure are you? 4. 5. 6. 7.

Acknowledge uncertainty. Share dilemmas. Acknowledge opinion diversity. Be willing to speculate – responsibly. Speculate

Coping with the emotional side of the crisis

8.

Don't overdiagnose or overplan for panic.


8. 9.

Don't overdiagnose or overplan for panic. Don't aim for zero fear.

Zero Fear

What is the “right” level of fear? PANIC

DENIAL

TERROR

Sometimes, a degree of rational fear is appropriate!

FEAR CONCERN INTEREST APATHY


8.

Don't overdiagnose or overplan for panic. 9. Don't aim for zero fear. 10. Don't forget other emotions (besides fear).

Don’t forget other emotions

Emotional Responses to Crisis 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

Fear Empathy/Misery Anger Hurt Guilt Resilience!

List other emotions


11.

Don't ridicule the public's emotions.

Don’t ridicule emotions


11. 12.

Don't ridicule the public's emotions. Legitimize people's fears.

Legitimize Fears

PM Goh and SARS fear While acknowledging SARS fear - his own, as well as his citizens' - PM Goh nearly always pivoted from the subject of fear to action and courage. S-A-R-S = "Schools Are Really Shut!" … "Single And Really Sexy!"

“Singaporeans Are Really Scared”. Yes, we were really scared. Scared for our lives and our loved ones. Scared of taking a taxi, scared of going to the hospital. Scared that tourists and customers would not return, and we might lose our jobs. For the first time in our history, all Singaporeans felt the same fear at the same time. But far from being frozen by the fear, the entire nation sprang into action."

Talking about mass casualties: a dilemma  Talking

 Waiting

about it too soon?

until inaccurate information starts spreading, and then reacting?


11. 12. 13.

Don't ridicule the public's emotions. Legitimize people's fears. Tolerate early overreactions.

Tolerate Early Reactions

or

Fear Initial Reaction Start of crisis

Time

Tolerate Early Over-reactions: Use the “Teachable Moment” Curve Adjustment Reaction

Are we hungry yet?

State agriculture officials staged photo opps From http://birdflubook.com/a.php?id=79


14.

Establish your own humanity.

Establish Humanity

Involving the public 15.

Tell people what to expect.

Thailand tells people what to expect, and does not over-reassure: “We are now about 80% ready to deal with a bird flu outbreak should it happen today.” --Thai Deputy Prime Minister Chaturon Chaisaeng, 9 February, 2005, Bangkok Post

Involving the public 16

Offer people things to do.

Offer people things to do

Involving the public 16 17.

Offer people things to do. Let people choose their own actions.

Let People Choose

Involving the public 16 17.

18.

Offer people things to do. Let people choose their own actions. Ask more of people.

Ask more of people

Adult resilient response?

Emergency

Ambivalence

or

Regressed dependent response?

Ask More of People: Ally with Our Adult Selves! Ally with adult side

Singapore shares emotions about SARS

SARS commemoration ceremony, Singapore, Summer 2003

“Heroes and Angels / Through Your Eyes” – the SARS anthem, Singapore


Overwhelmed by emotion, a nurse sheds a tear as she watches a patient suffering from SARS.

http://www.wpro.who.int/sites/whd/heroes/singapore/pic10.htm


Acknowledge Errors, Misimpressions, and Half-truths

19.

Acknowledge errors, deficiencies, and misbehaviors.


19. 20.

Acknowledge errors, deficiencies, and misbehaviors. Apologize often for errors, deficiencies, and misbehaviors.

Apologize for Errors


21.Be explicit about "anchoring frames*.”

*what people already know and believe;

their “mental models.” Anchoring Frames


21. 22.

Be explicit about "anchoring frames." Be explicit about changes in official opinion, prediction, or policy. Changes in Policy


23.

Don't lie, and don't tell halftruths.

Don’t Lie…


23. 24.

Don't lie, and don't tell halftruths. Aim for total candor and transparency.

Aim for total…

Acknowledge Errors, Misimpressions, and Half-truths 25.

Be careful with risk comparisons.

Risk Comparisons

Thank You

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