Untrustworthy sources. Responsive process. Unresponsive process. Familiar. Unfamiliar .... for zero fear; err on the ala
Risk and Crisis Communication For Disasters Please feel free to adapt and use these slides, with proper credit to the source: “From material developed by Peter Sandman and Jody Lanard for the U.S. CDC, the World Health Organization, Health Canada, the Government of Singapore, the American Hygiene Association, and others.”
One definition of risk communication: "The interactive process of exchanging information and opinion among individuals, groups, and institutions involving multiple messages about the nature of risk...“* -- The National Research Council *(Note the emphasis on multi-directional communication!)
Risk: a traditional definition (one among many) The multiplication of Magnitude x Probability. How likely to happen?
How bad if it happens?
Outrage Factors (How normal people estimate most hazards) “safe”
“risky”
Voluntary Controlled by self Trustworthy sources Responsive process Familiar Not memorable No moral relevance Not dreaded Chronic
Involuntary Controlled by others Untrustworthy sources Unresponsive process Unfamiliar Memorable Moral relevance Dreaded Catastrophic
© Peter Sandman 1987, 2006 (Based on the risk perception work of Paul Slovic)
A new definition of risk: (for the purpose of communication planning)
Risk
A new definition of risk: Risk Hazard
A new definition of risk: Risk
Hazard Outrage (Please note: “outrage” can also stand for fear; shame; loss of face. It has different implications and expressions between and within different cultures. The concept we call “outrage” does not always mean the direct feeling and expression of indignation. It would be useful to find the right word to describe the part of the public’s perception of “risk” that does not relate to the technical hazard.)
A new “definition” of risk: Risk = Hazard + Outrage
(Peter Sandman’s formula!)
For technical people: Risk = f( H, O )
Four Kinds of Risk Communication First communication planning task: Diagnose which “communication environments” are relevant.
O U T R A G E *
Copyright 2003 Peter Sandman
HAZARD
Risk Communication FourFour kindsKinds of riskof communication 1. When people are ignoring a serious hazard
O U T R A G E
PUBLIC RELATIONS HEALTH & SAFETY EDUCATION ACTIVISM
Copyright 2003 Peter Sandman
HAZARD
Fourare Kinds of Risk Communication 1. When people ignoring a serious hazard, contin.
O U T R A G E
Copyright 2003 Peter Sandman
“Precaution Advocacy”
HAZARD
1. When Four peopleKinds are ignoring a serious hazard, contin. of Risk Communication
Warning: next comes a concept that generates enormous resistance: O U T R A G E
Copyright 2003 Peter Sandman
“Precaution Advocacy”
HAZARD
O U T R A G E
Four Kinds Risk Communication First, inform people – andofmobilize their concern to a level of fear or worry proportionate to the hazard.
(Officials hate the second half of this recommendation!!)
Or
F E A R
Copyright 2003 Peter Sandman
“Precaution Advocacy”
HAZARD
O U T R A G E
Then, help them hazard (“things Fourmanage Kinds ofthe Risk Communication they can do”), or else they will try to manage their fear (by way of denial, apathy, scoffing).
Or
F E A R
“Precaution Advocacy”
Copyright 2003 Peter Sandman
HAZARD
Fear Appeal Documentation
Four Kinds of Risk Communication
In other words… O U T R A G E Or
F E A R
“Precaution Advocacy”
HAZARD
Lower right hand circle, arrow
Copyright 2003 Peter Sandman
Four Kinds of Risk Communication O U T R A G E
OUTRAGE MANAGEMENT
Or
“Precaution Advocacy”
F E A R
Copyright 2003 Peter Sandman
HAZARD Upper Left Hand Circle
Four Kinds of Risk Communication O U T R A G E
OUTRAGE MANAGEMENT
Your Job: Inform people AND use outrage/fear management strategies to reduce their outrage or fear.
Or
F E A R
Copyright 2003 Peter Sandman
HAZARD
Four Kinds of Risk Communication In other words...
O or U T F R E A A G R E
OUTRAGE MANAGEMENT
HAZARD
Upper Left Hand Circle, Arrow
Copyright 2003 Peter Sandman
Four Kinds of Risk Communication
O U T R A G E
OUTRAGE MANAGEMENT
“Precaution Advocacy”
HAZARD
Copyright 2003 Peter Sandman Smiley Face
Four Kinds of Risk Communication
O U T R A G E
OUTRAGE MANAGEMENT
“Precaution Advocacy”
Copyright 2003 Peter Sandman Two Arrows
HAZARD
Three circles (adds crisis)
O U T R A G E
Copyright 2003 Peter Sandman
CRISIS COMMUNICATION
OUTRAGE MANAGEMENT
“Precaution Advocacy”
HAZARD
Four Kinds of Risk Communication
O U T R A G E
Copyright 2003 Peter Sandman
Crisis Communication
“We’ll get through this together”
HAZARD Get through this together
How bad is it? How sure are you? 1.
Don't over-reassure.
9/11 dust chasing people
9/11 overview dust
Don’t over-reassure – bad example: Mayor Bloomberg, early in the NY blackout of 2003
“I can tell you 100 percent sure that there is no evidence as of this moment whatsoever of any terrorism.” NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg talking to CNN anchor Kyra Phillips, 7:41 p.m., August 14, 2003
Bloomberg example don’t over-reassure
Quiz:
Bloomberg weasal words
What words “protect” him if he turns out wrong?
Bloomberg as of this moment
“…as of this moment…”
Answer:
What words did CNN run as a caption, while the Mayor spoke?
CNN crawl?
“???????”
For about ten minutes, CNN ran the words:
100% sure
“100% sure”
See Saw
How bad is it? How sure are you? 1. 2.
Subordinate Clause
Don't over-reassure. Put reassuring information in subordinate clauses.
U.S. CDC Director Julie Gerberding “subordinates” the good news "Even though there is no evidence that SARS comes from outer space, we're keeping an open mind.” -- Dr. Julie Gerberding, U.S. CDC copyright Peter Sandman and Jody Lanard 2006
How bad is it? How sure are you? 1. 2.
3.
Don't over-reassure. Put reassuring information in subordinate clauses. Err on the alarming side.
Err Alarming Side
Early on in SARS, Dick Thompson errs on the alarming side. “One might think we are overreacting to the cases. But when you do not know the cause, when it strikes hospital staff, ands it certainly is moving at the speed of a jet, we are taking this very seriously.” – WHO’s Dick Thompson --From the risk communication Good Example file. (Don't aim for zero fear; err on the alarming side; acknowledge people's "anchoring frames.“) .
How bad is it? How sure are you? 4.
Acknowledge uncertainty.
Uncertainty
Warning people about uncertainty “We will learn things in the coming weeks that everyone will wish we had known when we started.” This became the U.S. CDC’s mantra after its early communication mistakes during the anthrax poisonings.
How bad is it? How sure are you? 4. 5.
Acknowledge uncertainty. Share dilemmas.
Share Dilemmas
Minister Abbott’s Dilemma (and yours), continued “ It’s hard to discuss potential disasters outside people’s ordinary experience without generating the sort of lurid headlines which make some scoff and others panic… “ If a deadly flu pandemic ever seems imminent, no preparations will be enough. But if the current bird flu outbreaks in Asia gradually subside, the Government’s investment in a stockpile likely to be time-expired in five years will be the health equivalent of a redundant weapons system.” --from a May 2005 speech by Australia Minister of Health Tony Abbott
How bad is it? How sure are you? 4. 5. 6.
Acknowledge uncertainty. Share dilemmas. Acknowledge opinion diversity.
Opinion Diversity
How bad is it? How sure are you? 4. 5. 6. 7.
Acknowledge uncertainty. Share dilemmas. Acknowledge opinion diversity. Be willing to speculate – responsibly. Speculate
Coping with the emotional side of the crisis
8.
Don't overdiagnose or overplan for panic.
Coping with the emotional side of the crisis
8. 9.
Don't overdiagnose or overplan for panic. Don't aim for zero fear.
Zero Fear
What is the “right” level of fear? PANIC
DENIAL
TERROR
Sometimes, a degree of rational fear is appropriate!
FEAR CONCERN INTEREST APATHY
Coping with the emotional side of the crisis
8.
Don't overdiagnose or overplan for panic. 9. Don't aim for zero fear. 10. Don't forget other emotions (besides fear).
Don’t forget other emotions
Emotional Responses to Crisis 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Fear Empathy/Misery Anger Hurt Guilt Resilience!
List other emotions
Coping with the emotional side of the crisis
11.
Don't ridicule the public's emotions.
Don’t ridicule emotions
Coping with the emotional side of the crisis
11. 12.
Don't ridicule the public's emotions. Legitimize people's fears.
Legitimize Fears
PM Goh and SARS fear While acknowledging SARS fear - his own, as well as his citizens' - PM Goh nearly always pivoted from the subject of fear to action and courage. S-A-R-S = "Schools Are Really Shut!" … "Single And Really Sexy!"
“Singaporeans Are Really Scared”. Yes, we were really scared. Scared for our lives and our loved ones. Scared of taking a taxi, scared of going to the hospital. Scared that tourists and customers would not return, and we might lose our jobs. For the first time in our history, all Singaporeans felt the same fear at the same time. But far from being frozen by the fear, the entire nation sprang into action."
Talking about mass casualties: a dilemma Talking
Waiting
about it too soon?
until inaccurate information starts spreading, and then reacting?
Coping with the emotional side of the crisis
11. 12. 13.
Don't ridicule the public's emotions. Legitimize people's fears. Tolerate early overreactions.
Tolerate Early Reactions
or
Fear Initial Reaction Start of crisis
Time
Tolerate Early Over-reactions: Use the “Teachable Moment” Curve Adjustment Reaction
Are we hungry yet?
State agriculture officials staged photo opps From http://birdflubook.com/a.php?id=79
Coping with the emotional side of the crisis
14.
Establish your own humanity.
Establish Humanity
Involving the public 15.
Tell people what to expect.
Thailand tells people what to expect, and does not over-reassure: “We are now about 80% ready to deal with a bird flu outbreak should it happen today.” --Thai Deputy Prime Minister Chaturon Chaisaeng, 9 February, 2005, Bangkok Post
Involving the public 16
Offer people things to do.
Offer people things to do
Involving the public 16 17.
Offer people things to do. Let people choose their own actions.
Let People Choose
Involving the public 16 17.
18.
Offer people things to do. Let people choose their own actions. Ask more of people.
Ask more of people
Adult resilient response?
Emergency
Ambivalence
or
Regressed dependent response?
Ask More of People: Ally with Our Adult Selves! Ally with adult side
Singapore shares emotions about SARS
SARS commemoration ceremony, Singapore, Summer 2003
“Heroes and Angels / Through Your Eyes” – the SARS anthem, Singapore
“Heroes and Angels / Through Your Eyes” – the SARS anthem, Singapore
Overwhelmed by emotion, a nurse sheds a tear as she watches a patient suffering from SARS.
http://www.wpro.who.int/sites/whd/heroes/singapore/pic10.htm
“Heroes and Angels / Through Your Eyes” – the SARS anthem, Singapore
Acknowledge Errors, Misimpressions, and Half-truths
19.
Acknowledge errors, deficiencies, and misbehaviors.
Acknowledge Errors, Misimpressions, and Half-truths
19. 20.
Acknowledge errors, deficiencies, and misbehaviors. Apologize often for errors, deficiencies, and misbehaviors.
Apologize for Errors
Acknowledge Errors, Misimpressions, and Half-truths
21.Be explicit about "anchoring frames*.”
*what people already know and believe;
their “mental models.” Anchoring Frames
Acknowledge Errors, Misimpressions, and Half-truths
21. 22.
Be explicit about "anchoring frames." Be explicit about changes in official opinion, prediction, or policy. Changes in Policy
Acknowledge Errors, Misimpressions, and Half-truths
23.
Don't lie, and don't tell halftruths.
Don’t Lie…
Acknowledge Errors, Misimpressions, and Half-truths
23. 24.
Don't lie, and don't tell halftruths. Aim for total candor and transparency.
Aim for total…
Acknowledge Errors, Misimpressions, and Half-truths 25.
Be careful with risk comparisons.
Risk Comparisons
Thank You
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