Dec 13, 2013 ... What is Risk? Professor John Adams (University College London). 10:55. Crime
as Irrational Risk Taking: Implications for Prevention and.
Risk: Perception, Measurement & Policy Friday 13 December 2013 Northampton Suite, City University London PROGRAMME
9:30
Registration and coffee
9:50
Opening remarks from Dr Tim Rakow & Professor Peter Ayton
10:00
What is Risk? Professor John Adams (University College London)
10:55
Crime as Irrational Risk Taking: Implications for Prevention and Intervention Strategies Professor Mandeep Dhami (Middlesex University)
11:45 - 12:10 Tea Break 12:10
Lessons from corporate catastrophes - The unrecognised risks of allowing people to run companies Antony Fitzsimmons (Chairman Reputability LLP) & Professor Derek Atkins (Cass Business School)
13:00-13:50
Lunch
13:50
Benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products: from implicit and qualitative to explicit and quantitative Professor Larry Phillips (London School of Economics)
14:40
Do we need a star-rating system when communicating risks? Professor David Spiegelhalter (University of Cambridge)
15:30 – 16:10 Tea break 16:10
The European Parliamentary informal working group on riskwhere are we and where are we going? Professor Ragnar Löfstedt (King's College London)
17:00
Using multi criteria decision analysis to improve the drug laws Professor David Nutt (Imperial College London)
17:50
Closing remarks
18:0019:0
Networking reception
POSTERS
Decision making and the brain Therese Kobbeltvedt, Norwegian School of Economics How risky is cycling in London? Jo Wood, Professor of Visual Analytics and Jason Dykes, Professor of Visualization, giCentre, Department of Computing, City University London Masking social relationships and loneliness: The mediating role of suppressed expressions in Norwegian leaders (2013) Mette M. Aanes Associated professor Bergen University College, Stig B. Matthiesen Professor Norwegian Business School, BI and Lars Glasø Professor Norwegian Business School, BI Midwifery Activity at the Margins of Risk Mandie Scamell, School of Health Sciences, City University London Probability neglect in risky choice: the role of numeracy and intrinsic happiness Dr Andrea Taylor, University of Leeds and Professor Rob Ranyard, University of Bolton Risk and Maternity Care Professor Chris McCourt and Dr Juliet Rayment, School of Health Sciences, City University London Risk perception vs risk reality Dr Tatyana MICIC, School of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences, City University London Risk Owners and Risk Managers: dealing with the complexity of feeding children with neurodevelopmental disability Dr Gill Craig (City University London) and Paul Higgs (UCL) To admit or not to admit? The effect of framing on risk assessment decision making in psychiatrists Jefferies K1,2, Sharma S1, Hawley CJ1,2, Gale TM1,2, Georgiou G1, Laws KR1 1 Hertfordshire Partnership University NHS Foundation Trust 2 University of Hertfordshire, Department of Psychology
Speaker Biographies
Professor John Adams John Adams is emeritus professor of geography at University College London. He is an honorary member of the Institute of Risk Management. His essay “Risk management: it’s not rocket science – it’s more complicated” was awarded the Inaugural Roger Miller Essay Prize by AIRMIC (the Association of Insurance and Risk Managers). He was a member of the Royal Society for the Arts Risk Commission and a member of the Metropolitan Police Covert Policing Ethics Committee – until it quietly disappeared. He has published widely on risk issues both in specialist journals and the national press, and contributed to radio and television programmes on the subject. His publications include Risk and Freedom: the record of road safety regulation (TPP, 1985), Risk (UCL Press, 1995), and (with Michael Thompson), Taking Account of Societal Concerns about Risk, a report for the Health and Safety Executive (2002). He has presented evidence on risk issues in court and at numerous public inquiries on questions relating to road safety. A theme central to much of his work on risk is “risk compensation” – better known in the world of insurance as “moral hazard”. More information about recent essays and activities is available on his website www.john-adams.co.uk.
Professor Derek Atkins, BSc, PhD, MIMMM, CEng, FCMI, FCII, Chartered Insurer Professor Atkins has 30 years’ experience in the insurance industry. Formerly UK Strategy Director for Royal and Sun Alliance, he has co-authored many books on risk analysis, risk management and insurance, notably ‘Reputational Risk: A Question of Trust’. He was a co-author of ‘Roads to Ruin’, the Cass Business School report for Airmic and of 'Deconstructing failure - Insights for Boards'. He currently teaches risk management, reputational risk, and insurance on the Cass Business School MSc course. Derek is chairman of the Board Risk Committee for Trust Re, Chairman of the Board Risk Committee of Market Insurance Brokers and a partner at Reputability. He was also a member of two UK government working groups on risk related issues, and was awarded the Exceptional Service Medal of the Chartered Insurance Institute.
Professor Mandeep Dhami Mandeep K. Dhami, PhD, is Professor of Decision Psychology. Before joining Middlesex in September 2013, she held academic posts at the University of Surrey, University of Cambridge, University of Victoria (Canada), University of Maryland (USA), and the Max Planck Institute for Human Development (Germany). Mandeep has also been a Principal Social Psychologist at DSTL (MoD) and has work
experience in two British prisons. Her research focuses on human judgment, decision-making and choice; understanding and communicating uncertainty; and risk perception and risk taking. She has examined these issues primarily in the criminal justice domain looking at, for example, the strategies that offenders, police officers, forensic analysts and judges use to make decisions; how jurors understand criminal standards of proof; and youth perceptions of the risks of criminal activity. Mandeep has provided advice and consultancy to Government organisations in the UK and abroad (including the USA, Australia, Canada and South Korea). Mandeep is Fellow of the Society for the Psychological Study of Social Issues (Division 9 of the American Psychological Association). She is on the editorial board of Perspectives in Psychological Science, and is lead editor of a book called 'Judgment and Decision Making as a Skill' published by Cambridge University Press in 2011.
Anthony Fitzsimmons, MA (hons) Cantab (engineering); Solicitor Anthony read engineering at Cambridge, then he became a solicitor specialising in international liability and insurance law. During two decades as a partner in one of the leading law firms specialised in the handling of international disasters, he refined strategies to prioritise and reconcile the reputational, humanitarian, commercial, legal and insurance issues arising in crises. He also advised major brands in the wake of severe adverse events. As well as Chairman and founder of Reputability, Anthony is a member of the Editorial Board of the Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance. He was a co-author of ‘Roads to Ruin’, the Cass Business School report for Airmic and of 'Deconstructing failure - Insights for Boards'.
Professor Ragnar Löfstedt Ragnar E. Löfstedt is Professor of Risk Management and the Director of King’s Centre for Risk Management, King’s College London, UK where he teaches and conducts research on risk communication and management. Dr Löfstedt earned his BA and MA degrees at University of California Los Angeles (1988) and Clark University (1991), respectively, before completing his PhD in geography at Clark University (1993). After a post-doctorate position at the Risk, Society and Policy Group at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) (Laxenburg, Austria), he joined the University of Surrey as a lecturer in social geography before coming to Kings in 2002. He has conducted research in risk communication and management in such areas as renewable energy policy, transboundary environmental issues (acid rain and nuclear power), health and safety, telecommunications, biosafety, pharmaceuticals, and the siting of building of incinerators, fuel policy, nuclear waste installations and railways. He is a believer in the building of public trust in regulators and industry via proactive risk communication and argues that high regulatory/industry trust is equivalent to low public perceived risk.
Professor David Nutt DM, FRCP, FRCPsych, FSB, FMedSci David Nutt is a psychiatrist and the Edmund J Safra Professor of Neuropsychopharmacology in the Division of Brain Science, Dept of Medicine, Hammersmith Hospital, Imperial College London. Here he uses a range of brain imaging techniques to explore the causes of addiction and to search for new treatments. He has published over 400 original research papers, a similar number of reviews and books chapters, eight government reports on drugs and 27 books. He broadcasts widely to the general public both on radio and television. In 2010 The Times Eureka science magazine voted him one of the 100 most important figures in British Science, and the only psychiatrist in the list. In 2013 he was awarded the John Maddox Prize from Nature/Sense about Science for standing up for science.
Professor Larry Phillips Dr Lawrence Phillips is Emeritus Professor of Decision Science and at the London School of Economics & Political Science and a Director of Facilitations Limited. He came to the UK in 1966 with a post-doctoral fellowship to study risk, which showed that an individual’s risk attitude depends more on the domain of the task (financial, health, physical, or social interaction) than on personality or cognitive ability. He lectures on the LSE’s MSc in Decision Sciences and works as a process consultant, helping key players in organisations facing decisions that balance risk, uncertainty and multiple conflicting objectives. He is currently the Chair of the Haverstock Healthcare Patients’ Group and an active member of Heath Hands, a volunteer organisation that works on Hampstead Heath. His 130+ publications span organisation theory, behavioural decision theory, decision and risk analysis, Bayesian statistics, group processes and cultural differences in dealing with uncertainty. He has served on the editorial boards of Decision Analysis, Acta Psychologica, the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, and the Journal of Forecasting. In November 2005, the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS awarded Dr Phillips the Frank P. Ramsey medal for distinguished contributions to decision analysis.
Professor David Spiegelhalter David Spiegelhalter is Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk, and Professor of Biostatistics, at the University of Cambridge. His background is in medical statistics, particularly the use of Bayesian methods in clinical trials, health technology assessment and drug safety. In his post he leads a small team (UnderstandingUncertainty.org) that attempts to improve the way in which the quantitative aspects of risk and uncertainty are discussed in society. He works closely with the Millennium Mathematics Project in Cambridge in trying to develop an exciting treatment of probability and risk for mathematics education. He gives many presentations to schools and others, advises organisations and government agencies on risk communication, and is a regular commentator on current risk issues. He presented the BBC4 documentary ‘Tails you Win: the Science of Chance”, and in 2011 competed in Winter Wipeout on BBC1.
He has over 190 refereed publications and is co-author of 6 textbooks. He is an Honorary Fellow of the Institute for Risk Management, an Honorary Fellow of he Royal College of Physicians, was elected Fellow of the Royal Society in 2005 and was awarded an OBE in 2006 for services to medical statistics. He is @d_spiegel on Twitter, and his home page is http://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/Dept/People/Spiegelhalter/davids.html.
