RIVM report 601450017/2003. Environmental risk assessment for veterinary medicinal products. Part 4. Exposure assessment scenarios. MHMM Montforts, JV ...
5,90UHSRUW (QYLURQPHQWDOULVNDVVHVVPHQWIRU YHWHULQDU\PHGLFLQDOSURGXFWV 3DUW([SRVXUHDVVHVVPHQWVFHQDULRV 0+000RQWIRUWV-97DUD]RQD/DIDUJD
,1,$/DERUDWRULRGH(FRWR[LFRORJLFD0DGULG6SDLQ
7KLVLQYHVWLJDWLRQKDVEHHQSHUIRUPHGLQFRRSHUDWLRQZLWK,1,$E\RUGHUDQGIRUWKH DFFRXQWRIWKH0LQLVWU\RI9520DQGWKH(8(5$90,63URMHFWZLWKLQWKHIUDPHZRUNRI 9520SURMHFW0DQG(8&RQWUDFW1R(9.&7
5,9032%R[%$%LOWKRYHQWHOHSKRQH WHOHID[
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
&RQWHQWV 6DPHQYDWWLQJ
6XPPDU\
,QWURGXFWLRQ 6FRSHRIWKHUHSRUW
6FHQDULRVDQGH[SRVXUHPRGHOV
$JULFXOWXUDOSUDFWLFHVLQWKH(8
'LVWULEXWLRQRIOLYHVWRFN
'LVWULEXWLRQRIVOXUU\
$QLPDOKXVEDQGU\DQGPDQXUHSURGXFWLRQ
6OXUU\PDQDJHPHQW 6OXUU\VWRUDJHFRQGLWLRQV 6OXUU\DSSOLFDWLRQ 6OXUU\VFHQDULRV
6FHQDULRVIRUFOLPDWHDQGVRLOVLQWKH(8
*URXQGZDWHUOHDFKLQJVFHQDULRV 6FUHHQLQJOHYHOER[PRGHOV 3ULPDU\OHYHOPRGHOV )2&86 8QFHUWDLQWLHVUHODWHGWRWKHFKRLFHRIJURXQGZDWHUVFHQDULRV
6XUIDFHZDWHUVFHQDULRV 6FUHHQLQJOHYHOER[PRGHOV 3ULPDU\OHYHOVFHQDULRV )2&86 3ULPDU\OHYHOVFHQDULRV 0HGLWHUUDQHDQVFHQDULRV
'LVFXVVLRQ
5HIHUHQFHV
$SSHQGL[0DLOLQJOLVW
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
5,90UHSRUW
3DJH RI
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±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sUHQGYDQZHNHQWRWMDDUHQLQ1HGHUODQGYDQWRWPDDQGHQ 'HZLM]HYDQPHVWRSVODJHQYDQEHPHVWHQNXQQHQGHXLWHLQGHOLMNHFRQFHQWUDWLHVLQKHWPLOLHX VWHUN EHSDOHQ %LQQHQ HQ WXVVHQ PHVWV\VWHPHQ LV GH YDULDWLH LQ WHPSHUDWXXU ]XXUVWRI ]XXUJUDDGHQQXWULsQWHQJURRW'H]HRQ]HNHUKHGHQLQSDUDPHWHUVUHODWLHVHQUHVXOWDWHQ]LMQ DDQPHUNHOLMN 'HGLHSWHZDDURSGHPHVWLQJHZHUNWZRUGWKDQJWDIYDQGHZLM]HYDQWRHGLHQHQ,QKHWYHOGLV ZDDUJHQRPHQGDWQLHWLQZHUNHQHHQYHHOYRRUNRPHQGHSUDNWLMNLV'HPHVWZRUGWLQppQRILQ PHHUGHUHNHUHQXLWJHUHGHQDIKDQNHOLMNYDQERGHPHQJHZDVW\SH ,Q YHUEDQG PHW GH YDULDELOLWHLW LQ PHVWEHKDQGHOLQJ LV JHNR]HQ YRRU HHQ HHQYRXGLJH EHQDGHULQJ(HQVFHQDULRRQGHUUHDOLVWLVFKHµZRUVWFDVH¶RPVWDQGLJKHGHQZRUGWYRRUJHVWHOG XLWJDDQGH YDQ HHQ HQNHOH EHKDQGHOLQJ SHU GLHUYHUEOLMISODDWV HHQ YDVWJHVWHOGH VWLNVWRISURGXFWLH WRHGLHQLQJ YDQ HHQVWLNVWRIJLIWYDQNJ 1KDMDDU PHW HHQ KRHYHHOKHLG PHVWJHOLMNDDQGHSURGXFWLHLQPDDQGJHHQYHUGZLMQLQJYDQKHWUHVLGXHWLMGHQVGHRSVODJ JHHQ QDEHKDQGHOLQJ YDQ GH PHVW HQ HHQ LQZHUNGLHSWH YDQ FP LQ GH ERGHP 5LVLFRUHGXFWLHPDDWUHJHOHQ GLH EHWUHNNLQJ KHEEHQ RS PHVWEHKDQGHOLQJ HQ PHVWJHEUXLN NXQQHQPHWGH]HEHQDGHULQJQLHWZRUGHQJHYHULILHHUG 6FHQDULR¶V HQPRGHOOHQ YRRU GLVWULEXWLH LQ KHW PLOLHX ]LMQ YDVWJHVWHOG GRRU )2&86 )RUXP IRUWKH&RRUGLQDWLRQRISHVWLFLGHIDWHPRGHOVDQGWKHLU8VH YRRUGH(XURSHVHUHJLVWUDWLHYDQ JHZDVEHVFKHUPLQJVPLGGHOHQHQZRUGHQJHVFKLNWJHDFKWYRRUGLHUJHQHHVPLGGHOHQ ,Q DDQYXOOLQJ RS KHW )2&86 LQVWUXPHQWDULXP ZRUGW YRRU RSSHUYODNNLJH DIVWURPLQJ HQ ERGHPHURVLH LQ PHGLWHUUDQH JHELHGHQ HHQ WRHJHVSLWVW VWURRPJHELHGHQVFHQDULR HQ ±PRGHO DDQJHGUDJHQ
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
5,90UHSRUW
,QWURGXFWLRQ
6FRSHRIWKHUHSRUW
3DJHRI
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µZRUVW FDVH¶ VFHQDULRV KDYH EHHQ GHYHORSHG IRU XVH LQ WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO ULVN DVVHVVPHQW RI SODQW SURWHFWLRQ SURGXFWV IRU XVH LQ OHDFKLQJ PRGHOV VXUIDFH ZDWHU PRGHOV DQG UXQRII PRGHOV 7KH FXUUHQW VWXG\ LQYHVWLJDWHV WKH XVHIXOQHVV RI WKHVHVFHQDULRVIRUYHWHULQDU\PHGLFLQHV
6FHQDULRVDQGH[SRVXUHPRGHOV
7KH VFHQDULR GHILQHV SDUDPHWHUV GLVWULEXWLRQV LQ WKH H[SRVXUH PRGHOV DOO RI ZKLFK DUH UHODWHG (PLVVLRQ D SDWKRORJ\ DQG UHPHGLDWLRQ RFFXUUHQFH RI LQIHFWLRQV DQG GLVHDVHV WKURXJKRXW WKH \HDU V E H[FUHWLRQRIUHVLGXHVE\DQLPDOV 6WRUDJH D 6OXUU\SURGXFWLRQ E VWRUDJHWLPH F VWRUDJHFRQGLWLRQV G VOXUU\UHPRYDO H VOXUU\TXDOLW\ ,PPLVVLRQLQWRVRLO D ORDG E UHSHWLWLRQV F VRLOPDQDJHPHQW (QYLURQPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQV D FOLPDWH E VRLO F ZHDWKHUK\GURORJ\ G WRSRJUDSK\
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
,I D SURGXFW LV XVHG RU QRW GHSHQGV RQ WKH SDWKRORJ\ RFFXUUHQFH RI GLVHDVHV 7KH SUHVXSSRVLWLRQ LV WKDW WUHDWPHQW RFFXUV WKXV SDWKRORJ\ LV QRW D SDUDPHWHU 'RVDJH LV D SDUDPHWHU ZKLFK LV QRW YDULDEOH EHFDXVH WKH PRGHOOLQJ LV SHUIRUPHG XVLQJ D JLYHQ SUHVFULEHGGRVDJH GRVHUDWH PJNJERG\ZHLJKW DQGGXUDWLRQRIWUHDWPHQW 6HYHUDO DQLPDOV KDYH PRUH SURGXFWLRQ F\FOHV LQ RQH \HDU ZKLFK PD\ DOO QHHG WUHDWPHQW 'HSHQGLQJRQWKHPRGHOW\SH UDWHRUFDSDFLW\ WKLVLQWURGXFHVWKHQHHGWRVWDQGDUGLVHERG\ ZHLJKWV DQG WUHDWPHQW UDWHV ([FUHWLRQ RI UHVLGXHV LV DOVR DQ LQSXWSDUDPHWHU LQ WKH PRGHO ([FUHWLRQSDWWHUQVDQGFXPXODWLYHH[FUHWLRQPD\GLIIHUGHSHQGLQJRQVSHFLHVUDFHPRGHRI DSSOLFDWLRQDQGGRVDJH7KLVZLOOUHVXOWLQDVHOHFWLRQRIDQH[FUHWLRQYDOXH GHWHUPLQLVWLF RU DUDQJHRIYDOXHV 7KH LQSXW VWRUDJH DQG RXWIORZ RI FRQWDPLQDWHG DQG XQFRQWDPLQDWHG VOXUU\ GHWHUPLQH WKH ORDGV WKDW ZLOO UHDFK WKH VRLO 5HVLGXHV FDQ EH H[FUHWHG GXULQJ D WLPH SHULRG LQ ZKLFK WKH VOXUU\ EDVLQ LV HPSWLHG 7KH WLPH DIWHU H[FUHWLRQ DQG EHIRUH WKH EDVLQ LV SDUWO\ HPSWLHG GLIIHUVIRUHYHU\VLWXDWLRQ6OXUU\VWRUDJHSURGXFWLRQDQGUHPRYDOVKRXOGWKXVEHGHILQHGLQ VFHQDULRV$GHVFULSWLRQRIIHHGORWSURGXFWLRQV\VWHPVLVJLYHQLQ>@ 7KH PRVW UHDOLVWLF SHULRG WKDW GHJUDGDWLRQ FDQ WDNH SODFH LQ VOXUU\ DQG LQ VRLO FDQQRW EH GHWHUPLQHGZLWKDUXOHRIWKXPE*LYHQWKHQXPEHURIF\FOHVSHU\HDUDQGDVVXPLQJWKDWWKH WLPHEHWZHHQWKHDSSOLFDWLRQVLQWKHF\FOHVLVFRQVWDQWRQHFDQVHDUFKIRUWKHZRUVWFDVHDQG EHVW FDVH FRPELQDWLRQV RI VOXUU\ VWRUDJH WLPH DQG VRLO UHVLGHQFH WLPH 6WRUDJH WLPH LV D IXQFWLRQ RI RXWSXW VSUHDGLQJ LQWHUYDOV DQG LQSXW WLPH RI DSSOLFDWLRQ RU H[FUHWLRQ +RZHYHU DV WKHVH IXQFWLRQV ODUJHO\ GHSHQG RQ WKH XQNQRZQ DQG LQGLYLGXDO VXEVWDQFH KDQGOLQJHLWKHUDFRPSOHWHVXEURXWLQHZLWKGHWDLOHGLQSXWVDUHQHHGHGRUDVFHQDULRIRUHYHU\ OLYHVWRFN FDWHJRU\ RI LQWHUHVW LV WR EH GHILQHG ,Q WKLV ZD\ GRVLQJ H[FUHWLRQ DQG PDQXUH KDQGOLQJDUHPDGHSDUWRIWKHVFHQDULRUDWKHUWKDQRIWKHDOJRULWKPV &OLPDWHDQGVRLOVDUHLPSRUWDQWIDFWRUVLQWKHGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIFKHPLFDOFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKH HQYLURQPHQW ,Q WKH (XURSHDQ &RPPLVVLRQ DQG WKH (XURSHDQ &URS 3URWHFWLRQ $VVRFLDWLRQ MRLQWO\ HVWDEOLVKHG )2&86 )2UXP IRU WKH &RRUGLQDWLRQ RI SHVWLFLGH IDWH PRGHOV DQG WKHLU 86H ZKR DV RQH RI LWV WDVNV HVWDEOLVKHG VWDQGDUG OHDFKLQJ DQG VXUIDFH ZDWHU H[SRVXUH VFHQDULRV IRU SHVWLFLGH UHJLVWUDWLRQ LQ (XURSH 7KHVH VFHQDULRV DUH SUREDEO\ DOVRDSSURSULDWHIRUXVHLQWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOULVNDVVHVVPHQWRIYHWHULQDU\SKDUPDFHXWLFDOV ,QJHQHUDOVFHQDULRDQDO\VLVXVLQJFDOLEUDWHGGLVWULEXWLRQPRGHOVIRUJURXQGZDWHUDQGVXUIDFH ZDWHUVKRZHGWKDW VXEVWDQFHFKDUDFWHULVWLFV ODWHUDOERXQGDU\FRQGLWLRQV WLPHRIDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHVXEVWDQFH VRLOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDQG ZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQV GHILQH WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI WKH SHVWLFLGH LQ WKH GUDLQSLSHV DQG WKHUHE\ WKH IUDFWLRQ RI WKH GRVDJHOHDFKHGWRVXUIDFHZDWHUDQGJURXQGZDWHU7KHUHIRUHZHEDVHWKHIXUWKHUGHVFULSWLRQV RQWKH)2&86UHSRUWV>@ $OO H[SRVXUH PRGHOV RSHUDWH ZLWKLQ FHUWDLQ GLPHQVLRQV WLPH XQLWV GLVWDQFHV DQG DUHDV RQ ZKLFK WKH SDUDPHWHU YDOXHV GHSHQG DQG WKH W\SH RI PRGHO LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ UHODWHG WR WKH VSDWLDOVFDOHRIWKHVLPXODWLRQ7KHSDUDPHWHUYDOXHLVFRQVLGHUHGUHSUHVHQWDWLYHIRUWKHUDQJH RI YDOXHV RU UDWHV IRU WKH PRGHOOHG SURFHVV HQFRXQWHUHG LQ WKH ILHOG IRU ERWK WKH VHOHFWHG
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
$JULFXOWXUDOSUDFWLFHVLQWKH(8
$JULFXOWXUDO SUDFWLFHV ZLOO SOD\ D YHU\ LPSRUWDQW UROH LQ GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI YHWHULQDU\ GUXJV LQ WKH HQYLURQPHQW 7KLV FKDSWHU UHYLHZV DYDLODEOH GDWD RQ DJULFXOWXUDO SUDFWLFHV LQ WKH (8 7KH GDWD REWDLQHG PD\ EH XVHIXO LQ WKH UHILQHPHQW RI FXUUHQW HQYLURQPHQWDOULVNDVVHVVPHQWDSSURDFKHV
'LVWULEXWLRQRIOLYHVWRFN
$EVROXWHQXPEHUVRILQGLYLGXDODQLPDOVNHSWRQKROGLQJVLQWKHPHPEHUVWDWHV 7DEOHDQG 7DEOH PHDQWKDWWKHJUHDWHVWGHQVLWLHVRIOLYHVWRFNDUHIRXQGLQWKH1HWKHUODQGV)UDQFH WKH8.DQG,WDO\ )LJXUH 7DEOH 1XPEHU RIKROGLQJV DYHUDJHDUHD SHUKROGLQJ DQG WRWDO DJULFXOWXUDODUHD E\ PHPEHU VWDWH LQ (8 >@ 0HPEHUVWDWH
1XPEHURIKROGLQJV
$YHUDJH DUHD SHU KROGLQJ
7RWDO
KROGLQJV
KD
KD
(8
%HOJLXP
'HQPDUN
*HUPDQ\
*UHHFH
6SDLQ
)UDQFH
,UHODQG
,WDO\
/X[HPERXUJ
1HWKHUODQGV
$XVWULD
3RUWXJDO
)LQODQG
6ZHGHQ
8QLWHG.LQJGRP
DJULFXOWXUDO
DUHD
7DEOH/LYHVWRFNLQ(8PHPEHUVWDWHV QXPEHUVWLPHV >@ 0HPEHUVWDWH
3LJ
&DWWOH
7DEOH
/D\LQJKHQV
6KHHS
*RDWV
(8
%HOJLXP
'HQPDUN
*HUPDQ\
*UHHFH
6SDLQ
)UDQFH
,UHODQG
,WDO\
/X[HPERXUJ
1HWKHUODQGV
$XVWULD
3RUWXJDO
)LQODQG
6ZHGHQ
8QLWHG.LQJGRP
SDJHRI
)LJXUH'HQVLW\RIWRWDOOLYHVWRFNGDLU\FRZVDQGSLJVLQWKH(8>@
5,90UHSRUW
5,90UHSRUW
3DJH RI
7DEOH$QLPDOSODFHVSHUIDUPLQWKH1HWKHUODQGV DVSUHVHQWHGLQ>@ $QLPDOW\SH
DQLPDOSODFHV
IDUPV
$YHUDJH QXPEHU RI
GDLU\FRZV
FDWWOH
SLJV
KRUVHVDQGSRQLHV
VKHHS
JRDWV
FKLFNHQV
EURLOHUV
KHQV
WXUNH\V
GXFNV
UDEELWV
'LVWULEXWLRQRIVOXUU\
SODFHVSHUIDUP
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
8.
6
),1
3
$
1/
/
,
,5/
)
(
(/
'
'.
%
)LJXUH1LWURJHQLQSXWIURPPDQXUHLQ(8PHPEHUVWDWHVLQ
7KLVJLYHVDGLIIHUHQWSLFWXUHFRPSDUHGWRWKHUHODWLYHQXPEHURIDQLPDOVSHUFRXQWU\ )LJXUH
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
3RXOWU\ 6KHHSDQGJRDWV
3LJV
%RYLQHDQLPDOV
\ G H P UN H LQ Q Q F F D D LX D Q H S OD 8 P OJ H 6 UD UH Q UP H ( ,U ) H H % * ' *
O G V P D Q UJ LD Q G R J H X Q WU G OD G R V D WX J O H U LQ E X U LQ R Z ) H $ P 3 6 . H WK G [ H H X 1 LW / Q 8 O\ D ,W
)LJXUH/LYHVWRFNLQ(8PHPEHUVWDWHV >@
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
5,90UHSRUW
)LJXUH1LWURJHQORDGIURPPDQXUHLQWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQ >@
3DJHRI
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
$QLPDOKXVEDQGU\DQGPDQXUHSURGXFWLRQ
7KHTXDQWLW\RIPDQXUHVOXUU\SURGXFHGE\OLYHVWRFNDQGPHWKRGVRIDQLPDOKXVEDQGU\ZLOO SRWHQWLDOO\KDYHDQLPSDFWRQFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIYHWHULQDU\PHGLFLQHVLQWKHHQYLURQPHQW 0DQXUHTXDOLW\GHSHQGVRQVSHFLHVUDFHDJHVH[DQGIHHGLQJ6OXUU\SURGXFWLRQDQGTXDOLW\ LV PRQLWRUHG PRUH RU OHVV LQWHQVLYHO\ LQ (8 FRXQWULHV GXH WR WKH UHVWULFWLRQV LQ WKH XVH RI IHUWLOLVHUV 7KH ILJXUHV LQ WKH SXEOLFDWLRQV DUH QRW DOZD\V FRPSDUDEOH DV WKH\ PD\ UHIHU WR VRPH DGXOW LQGLYLGXDOV RU WR WKH WRWDO KXVEDQGU\ V\VWHP LQFOXGLQJ \RXQJ DQG DUH QRW DOZD\VLGHQWLFDO GXHWRGLIIHUHQFHVLQIHHGUDFHDQGKRXVLQJFRQGLWLRQV > @ 7KH ZRUVW FDVH VLWXDWLRQ LV GHVFULEHG ZLWK PDQXUH ORZ LQ QLWURJHQ :H SURSRVH WR XVH WKH ORZHUQLWURJHQSURGXFWLRQVWDQGDUGVSUHVHQWHGWRWKH(XURSHDQ5HVRXUFH0DQDJHPHQWRIWKH (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,E\.HWHODDUVDQG9DQGHU0HHU >@ 7DEOH %RG\ ZHLJKWVDWWUHDWPHQWDUHSURSRVHGEDVHGRQDGXOWZHLJKWVIRUSDUHQWDQLPDOVDQGWKHPHDQRI VODXJKWHUZHLJKWDQGVWDUWLQJZHLJKWIRUSURGXFWLRQDQLPDOV 7DEOH6WDQGDUGLVHGQLWURJHQSURGXFWLRQVWDQGDUGVURXQGVDQGWUHDWPHQWERG\ZHLJKWVIRUGLIIHUHQWOLYHVWRFN FDWHJRULHV
7\SHRI/LYHVWRFN
1LWURJHQ SURGXFWLRQ VWDQGDUG >NJ 1SODFH\HDU@
&DWWOH 'DLU\FRZV 2WKHUFRZV 9HDO \HDU \HDU !\HDU 3LJV 6RZV ZLWK SLJOHWV WLOONJ 6ODXJKWHU SLJV NJ 3RXOWU\ /D\LQJ+HQV %URLOHUVNJ 'XFNVNJ 7XUNH\VNJ 6KHHS (ZHV ZLWK ODPEV WLOONJ *RDW )HPDOHV ZLWK NLGV WLOONJ 5DEELW )HPDOHV ZLWK NLWWHQV +RUVHV YHDOGDWDEDVHGRQ>@DQG>@
5RXQGV SHU \HDU
3URSRVHGERG\ZHLJKWDWWUHDWPHQW
DGXOWNJSHUFDOI FDOYHVSHUSODFHSHU\HDU DGXOWNJSHUFDOI FDOYHVSHUSODFHSHU\HDU DGXOW NJSHUSLJOHW SLJOHWVSHUSODFH
DGXOW NJSHUODPE ODPEVSHUSODFH DGXOW NJSHUNLG NLGVSHUSODFH
ELUWKV
NJDGXOW NJSHUNLWWHQ NLWWHQVSHUSODFH
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
6OXUU\PDQDJHPHQW
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±& WR & FP EHORZ WKH VXUIDFH GXULQJ )HEUXDU\ ,RZD86$ >@0DQXUHFROOHFWHGIURP:LVFRQVLQ86$FDWWOHVWDEOHV IORRU LQ)HEUXDU\ UDQJHG IURP & LQ D IUHHVWDOO DQG & LQ D WLHVWDOO ,Q DOO VDPSOHV WKH S+ ZDV DURXQG >@ ,Q D FDOI PDQXUH SLOH HUHFWHG RXWGRRUV LQ ZLQWHU 1HZ @,QELRJDVSURGXFWLRQFHOOVLQ7H[DVGXULQJVXPPHUDQGZLQWHUWKHWHPSHUDWXUHLQ WKHEHHIFDWWOHPDQXUHSLOHZDVLQLWLDOO\DERXW&EXWWHPSHUDWXUHGURSSHGUDSLGO\GXULQJ
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
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
0DQXUH
FDWHJRU\
5HPRYDOIURP VWDEOH
:HW
[SHU\HDURUOHVV
6WRUDJH
6WDEOH
3LWRUVLOR 5HPRYDOLQ FRQWDLQHU
+HQFDJHG
'U\PDWWHUFRQWHQW
WUHDWPHQW
6WRUDJH
7HPSHUDWXUH & 6WDEOH
6WRUDJH
WUHDWPHQW
WUHDWPHQW
"
6KHG
'U\LQJE\DHUDWLRQ
'U\
'U\LQJE\ FRPSRVWLQJ
[SHUF\FOH PRQWKV )UHHUDQJLQJ KHQV
'U\
$HUDWLRQLQSLW
$HUDWLRQRQ [RUPRUHSHU
FRQYH\RUEHOWVLQ
ZHHN
SLWUHPRYDOLQ
FRQWDLQHU
%URLOHUV
'U\
[SHUF\FOH ZHHNV
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
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
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
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
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
RI
WRWDO RIGDLU\IDUPV
RIEHHIIDUPV
RISLJIDUPV
PDQXUH /HVVWKDQ
RUPRUH
$QRWKHUVRXUFHUHSRUWVWKHIROORZLQJGDWDRQVOXUU\VWRUDJHDQGDSSOLFDWLRQUDWHV 7DEOH ,WLVQRWVSHFLILHGWRZKDWDQLPDOVWKHGDWDDSSO\>@ 7DEOH$PRXQWVRIVOXUU\VWRUHGDQGDSSOLHGWLPHRIDSSOLFDWLRQDQGOHQJWKRIVWRUDJH :5F16) DSSOLHG
TXDQWLW\ VWRUHG VWRUDJH
WLPH DSSOLFDWLRQ UDWH SORXJK
GHSWK ZDVWH
FRQWHQW ZDVWH
FRQWHQW
JDOORQ
PRQWKV
NJKD\
FP
NJ3P
NJ1P
VOXUU\ DYHUDJH
6'
PLQ
PD[
WRQQH
WRQQH
6'
QD
QD
PLQ
PD[
PDQXUH DYHUDJH
WRQQH
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
5,90UHSRUW
3DJH RI
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
)LJXUH8WLOLVDWLRQRIVOXUU\VWRUDJHFDSDFLW\LQIDUPVZLWKH[FOXVLYHO\SLWVRUVLORVEDVHGRQDFDSDFLW\RI P DQGDSURGXFWLRQRIP SHUPRQWK9DUNHQV SLJV UXQGYHH FDWWOH NHOGHU SLW
)LJXUH8WLOLVDWLRQRIVOXUU\VWRUDJHFDSDFLW\LQIDUPVZLWKSLWVDQGVLORVEDVHGRQDFDSDFLW\RIP DQGD
SURGXFWLRQRIP SHUPRQWK9DUNHQV SLJV UXQGYHH FDWWOH NHOGHU SLW
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
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
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
5HDOLVWLF ZRUVW FDVH FRQGLWLRQV DUH KHQFH SURSRVHG LQ D VLPSOH VFHQDULR VHH 7DEOH IRU GHWDLOV DVVXPLQJ VLQJOHWUHDWPHQWSHUDQLPDOSODFH VWDQGDUG(XURSHDQQLWURJHQSURGXFWLRQYDOXHV DSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHPD[LPXPPDQXUHDSSOLFDWLRQUDWHRINJ1KD\HDULQRQHWLPH DPDQXUHSURGXFWLRQYROXPHRIPRQWK GD\V FRQWDLQLQJWKHIXOOUHVLGXH>3 @ QRGLVVLSDWLRQGXULQJVWRUDJHDQGQRDIWHUWUHDWPHQWRIVOXUU\ ,QFRUSRUDWLRQLQWRFPVRLOZLWKDEXONGHQVLW\RINJP 1
3(&VRLO =
' ¼ 7 ¼ P ¼ ¼ ¼ ¼ 31
,QSXW ' 7 0 31 2XWSXW 3(&VRLO
'RVDJHXVHG 'XUDWLRQRIWUHDWPHQW $YHUDJHG ERG\ZHLJKW 1LWURJHQSURGXFWLRQDQLPDOLQVWDEOHLQGD\V
>PJNJEZ G @ >G@ >NJEZ@ >NJ1@
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHVRLO
>PJFNJVRLO @
7DEOH(XURSHDQVOXUU\VFHQDULRVIRUGLIIHUHQWOLYHVWRFNFDWHJRULHV IL[HGQLWURJHQSURGXFWLRQTXRWDDQGERG\ ZHLJKWV 7\SHRI/LYHVWRFN &DWWOH 'DLU\FRZV 2WKHUFRZV 9HDOFDOYHV \HDU \HDU !\HDU 3LJV 6RZVZLWKSLJOHWVWLOONJ 6ODXJKWHUSLJVNJ 3RXOWU\ /D\LQJ+HQV %URLOHUVNJ 'XFNVNJ 7XUNH\VNJ 6KHHS (ZHVZLWKODPEVWLOONJ *RDW )HPDOHVZLWKNLGVWLOONJ 5DEELW )HPDOHVZLWKNLWWHQV +RUVHV
1LWURJHQ SURGXFWLRQ 31 >NJ1@
3URSRVHGERG\ZHLJKW P DWWUHDWPHQW
DGXOWNJSHUFDOI FDOI DGXOWNJSHUFDOI FDOI
DGXOW NJSHUSLJOHW SLJOHWV
DGXOW NJSHUODPE Q ODPEV
DGXOW NJSHUNLG Q NLGV
NJDGXOW NJSHUNLWWHQ Q NLWWHQV
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
6FHQDULRVIRUFOLPDWHDQGVRLOVLQWKH(8
*URXQGZDWHUOHDFKLQJVFHQDULRV
*URXQGZDWHU PRGHOV DQG VFHQDULRV DUH WR GHVFULEH UHOHYDQW FRQGLWLRQV XQGHU ZKLFK JURXQGZDWHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQV DUH WR EH FDOFXODWHG +RZHYHU D QXPEHU RI IDFWRUV FDQ PDNH VLPXODWLRQV RI FKHPLFDO WUDQVSRUW LQ VXEVRLO GLIILFXOW 7KHVH LQFOXGH ODFN RI LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ VXEVRLO SURSHUWLHV ODFN RI LQIRUPDWLRQ RI FKHPLFDOVSHFLILF SURSHUWLHV RI FURS SURWHFWLRQ SURGXFWV DQG WKHLU PHWDEROLWHV PRGHO OLPLWDWLRQV DQG VRPHWLPHV IUDFWXUHG URFN RU RWKHU VXEVWUDWHV ZKLFK FDQQRW EH SURSHUO\ VLPXODWHG XVLQJ H[LVWLQJ PRGHOV ,QIRUPDWLRQ RQ GHJUDGDWLRQRIDFWLYHVXEVWDQFHDQGPHWDEROLWHVLQVXEVRLOLVHVSHFLDOO\LPSRUWDQWVLQFHLQWKH DEVHQFH RI GHJUDGDWLRQ WKH PDLQ FKDQJH LQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ SURILOHV LV RQO\ WKH UHVXOW RI GLVSHUVLRQ
6FUHHQLQJOHYHOER[PRGHOV 7KH VFUHHQLQJ OHYHO ER[ PRGHO IRU JURXQGZDWHU SRUHZDWHU DV GHVFULEHG LQ WKH (0($ JXLGDQFH>@FRQWDLQVIHZFRQVLGHUDWLRQVRQVFHQDULRGHILQLWLRQ VHH7DEOH 7DEOH'HIDXOWVHWWLQJVRIWKHVFUHHQLQJPRGXOHIRUJURXQGZDWHU SDUDPHWHU
V\PERO
XQLW
YDOXH
EXONGHQVLW\RIIUHVKVRLO QRWGU\VRLO
5+2VRLO
>NJP@
GHQVLW\RIVRLOVROLGV
5+2VROLGVRLO
>NJP@
IUDFWLRQDLULQVRLO
)DLUVRLO
>PP@
IUDFWLRQZDWHULQVRLO
)ZDWHUVRLO
>PP@
IUDFWLRQVROLGVLQVRLO
)VROLGVRLO
>PP@
ZHLJKWIUDFWLRQRUJDQLFFDUERQLQVRLO
)RFVRLO
>NJNJ@
WHPSHUDWXUHDWDLUZDWHULQWHUIDFH
7(03
>.@
JDVFRQVWDQW
5
>3DPPRO.@
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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
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kWHDXGXQ +DPEXUJ -RNLRLQHQ .UHPVPQVWHU 2NHKDPSWRQ 3LDFHQ]D 3RUWR 6HYLOOD 7KLYD
0HDQ DQQXDO WHPS &
$QQXDO PP , , , ,
UDLQIDOO
6RLOWH[WXUH 6LOW\FOD\ORDP 6DQG\ORDP /RDP\VDQG /RDPVLOWORDP /RDP /RDP /RDP 6LOWORDP /RDP
2UJDQLF PDWWHU
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
)LJXUH)2&86JURXQGZDWHUVFHQDULRORFDWLRQV
&OLPDWH $VSDUWRIWKHVFHQDULRVHOHFWLRQSURFHVVWDUJHWVIRUDQQXDOUDLQIDOOZHUHDOVRGHYHORSHGIRU HDFKVLWHEDVHGRQWDEOHVRIDQQXDOUDLQIDOO +H\HU 7KHVHWDUJHWYDOXHVZHUHXVHGE\ WKHZHDWKHUVXEJURXSWRLGHQWLI\DSSURSULDWHFOLPDWLFGDWDIRUD\HDUSHULRG7KHUHVXOWLQJ DYHUDJH YDOXHV IRU UDLQIDOO DW HDFK VLWH )LJXUH DUH VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH )RXU ORFDWLRQV &Kk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kWHDXGXQ ORFDWLRQ ZDV FKRVHQIRUWKLVVFHQDULREHFDXVH VRLOVDWWKLVVLWHDUHKHDYLHUWKDQDWPRVWRIWKHRWKHUVLWHV DQGEHFDXVHH[SHULPHQWDOGDWDZHUHDYDLODEOHIRUFDOLEUDWLQJVRLOSDUDPHWHUV7KHPDFURSRUHV LQWKHSURILOHDW&KkWHDXGXQ DUHSUHVHQWWRDERXWFPGHSWK1RWHWKDWPDFURSRUHIORZLV
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
MXVWRQHIRUPRISUHIHUHQWLDOIORZ)RUPVRISUHIHUHQWLDOIORZRWKHUWKDQPDFURSRUHIORZDUH QRWFRQVLGHUHGE\FXUUHQWPRGHOVDQGZHUHQRWFRQVLGHUHGE\WKHZRUNJURXS &URSV 7KH XVH RI YDULRXV FURSV IRU HDFK ORFDWLRQ QHFHVVLWDWHG WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI FURSVSHFLILF LUULJDWLRQ VFKHGXOHV IRU WKH IRXU LUULJDWHG ORFDWLRQV QDPHO\ &Kk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
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
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k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µZDUPXS¶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¶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
WK
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
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µHIIHFWLYH SDUDPHWHUV¶ IRU ILHOG VFDOH VLPXODWLRQV $Q µHIIHFWLYH SDUDPHWHU¶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
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
7KUHHPDLQH[SRVXUHURXWHVGUDLQDJHUXQRIIDQGVRLOHURVLRQDUHFRQVLGHUHGUHOHYDQWLQWKH DUHD 'UDLQDJH LV QRW UHOHYDQW DW WKH ORFDO OHYHO DV GXH WR WKH VFDUFLW\ RI ZDWHU W\SLFDO 0HGLWHUUDQHDQFRQGLWLRQVDUHGHILQHGE\DQDQQXDOUDLQIDOOORZHUWKDQPP QRGUDLQDJH FKDQQHOV DUH UHTXLUHG ZLWKLQ WKH DUHD +RZHYHU D FRPELQDWLRQ RI GUDLQDJH DQG OHDFKLQJ LV UHOHYDQWDWWKHUHJLRQDOOHYHODVDVLJQLILFDQWFRQWULEXWLRQRIWKHZDWHUIORZFRPHVIURPWKLV URXWH
('*(2)),(/'/266
5(*,21$//266
7KHKHWHURJHQHRXVGLVWULEXWLRQRIUDLQIDOODURXQGWKH\HDUGHWHUPLQHVWKHUHOHYDQFHRIUXQRII HSLVRGHVDQGFRPELQHGZLWKWKHDYHUDJHVORSHDQGORZYHJHWDWLRQFRYHUDJHWKHVRLOORVVHV DVVRFLDWHGWRVRLOHURVLRQ ,Q )LJXUH WKH WRWDO WUDQVSRUW IURP VRLO WR ULYHUV DV D FRPELQDWLRQ RI DOO WKUHH URXWHV LV SUHVHQWHGDVDSHUFHQWDJHRIORVV
&21&(175$7,21 XJO 5(*,21$/(%52 5(*,21$/=$255$
5(*,21$/%$@ 7KH QLWURJHQ LPPLVVLRQ VWDQGDUG RI NJ 1KD\HDU GHVFULEHVD&RPPXQDXWDULDQDFFHSWDEOHVWDQGDUG 5HDOLVWLFZRUVWFDVHFRQGLWLRQVDUHKHQFHSURSRVHGLQDVLPSOHVFHQDULRDVVXPLQJ VLQJOHWUHDWPHQWSHUSODFH VWDQGDUG(XURSHDQQLWURJHQSURGXFWLRQFULWHULD DSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHPD[LPXPPDQXUHDSSOLFDWLRQUDWHRINJ1KD\HDULQRQHWLPH ZLWKDPDQXUHSURGXFWLRQYROXPHRIPRQWK GD\V FRQWDLQLQJWKHIXOOUHVLGXH>3 @ QRGLVVLSDWLRQGXULQJVWRUDJHDQGQRDIWHUWUHDWPHQWRIVOXUU\ ,QFRUSRUDWLRQLQWRFPVRLO QRWLOODJH ZLWKDGU\EXONGHQVLW\RINJP 1
3(&VRLO =
' ¼ 7 ¼ P ¼ ¼ ¼ ¼ 31
7KH 3(&VRLO FDQ EH XVHG LQ FRQMXQFWLRQ ZLWK VFUHHQLQJ OHYHO PRGHOV WKDW SUHGLFW PDVV WUDQVIHUWRJURXQGZDWHUDQGVXUIDFHZDWHU 6FUHHQLQJOHYHODQGPHFKDQLVWLFPRGHOVSURYLGHGE\)2&86DUH FRQVLGHUHG DVVXLWDEOHIRU YHWHULQDU\ GUXJV DV IRU SHVWLFLGHV DQG FDQ EH UXQ XVLQJ (XURSHDQ VFHQDULRV IRU VRLO DQG ZHDWKHU ZLWK DQG ZLWKRXW LQFRUSRUDWLRQ RI WKH VXEVWDQFH LQ WKH WRSVRLO 7KH )2&86
SDJHRI
5,90UHSRUW
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
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
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
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
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¡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
