I lrill shoI you the next turni.ng point that. *ill occur ... turning points to occur about
25 times per year, or t$ice per ... caser you night cBnclude that current. |nar ket ...
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@ 1986 Cor&dittSyeters, Inr. (CSI),fll iiglrtslrserred,
VOL. I I
NO. 3
MONDAY,HARCH3,
ttHAT'S NEhl --{ . * * * * *
1986
hEr Ritfi, Fltride
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A AIilPLE I{AV Ttr PREDICT I.IARKETTURNINB POINTS (a n d i 0 p r e s s y o u r + r i e n d s )
C S I r o u i d I i k E t o H i E h e v e r y o n ea H A P P Y This brie{ rEport is d e s i g n e dt o E A S T E R . 0 n 6 0 0 0 F R I D A Yl ,' l a r c h2 8 t h , a t I a d v i s e E u E t o n e r eH h o m a y h a v e a n i n t e r e s t n a r k e t sa n d C S I r i l l b e c l o s e d . in systemE,nethods, or serviceE lihiEh p r e d i c t n a r k e tt u r n i n q p o i n t s f a r i n t o t h e r i * f u t u r e . I { y o u h a v e b e e nE o i i c i t e d b y a n y - 0 p t i n i z e t i o n , m o er h e lp { u I i n { B r r a t ! c n . f ir'fl that y6u fley gain sEme d3eE this, T u r n t o p a g e? i0portant insight into this area by reading r * t on, llhether you plan to purchasE Eucha C S I - C o n s u m eArd v o c a t e ? P e E e2 servlcer 9ystefi, 0r 5ecret iE your pergonel r * * Ehoice. CSI has no preference +or one C S I f , l a i l i n gL i s t a v a i l a b l e , a v a l u a b l e I i s t o { c o n f i o d i t ya n d o i c r o u E e r s . Page3 t
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c o i n f i e r Eai l ,1 y procedure a v a i l a bI e over another. l{e EiftpIy niEh to point out {acts that nay be help{ul to our customers,
Exciting ne{ 0UICKI'IARKE AT NALYIERT. If I rere to tell you to "Pick any pr o d u c t r e s e n bI e s 0 UI CKD AY TR A D E R I . d a t e i n t h e f u t u r e t f o r a n y c o n n o d i t y ,a n d T u r n t o p a g eJ I lrill shoI you the next turni.ngpoint that t
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H a r d w a r ea c c e s E o r y s a l e f o r I B l l P C / I l @o r c o n p a t i b l e ss u c h a E 0 U l C K P C t . P a q el +
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EuEtofteS r E r vi c e n o t e s o n 0 UI C K T R I EVE@ Read about generic versus speEific cont r a c t s , 0 U I C K P L 0 l @arn d t u l I } | e e k c o l IEEtion. P a ge 4
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*ill occur relativ€ to thet date.", you oiqht think i'm cra:y,,, or strongly doubt my claio. The truth is, h o v r e v e r rt h a t a n y o n ec e n d o t h l s r i t h i n a n a c c u r a c y o f . say, three dayg about 702 o{ the ti me, or {ithin four days 80 to 90 per cent of the titlle.
The secret depends upon hs one points". defines "turning Suppose wa t * t de{ine interoediate narket s{ings or l ,el e d a p r o g r d n n e r ? P a ge 4 turning points to occur about 25 times per * * * year, or t$ice per nonth, Since there are t " l ci r o V e s t S o f t l a r e R e v i e w Page 4 about 250 trading days per year, this * t * allons {or onE turning point per l0 dayE. Netrork Inf orination Page 5 llith a dart and e calendar lnto the future, r * * the dart Hill hit sorre seven day ti e interval (the day hit plus or oinus three @ OUICKTRIEV AE N d O U I C K P L TA] rTE days) each tine it is thro{n, If turning r e g i , s t e r e d t r a d e n a rk s o { C o m m o d i t y points occur, on the average, once evEry l0 S y E t e n rB I n c . d a y 5 , t h e n t h e r e i s a 7 0 1 , c h e n c en y d a r t t' 0 UI C K I I A R K EATN A L Y Z EaRn d 0 U I C K D A Y T R A D E Rr i l l i n E lu d e a t u r n i n g p o i n t R i t h i n t h r e e aFe tradenarks and service narks o{ davs. Conmod t yi S y s t e m s , I n c , tn 0UICKPC is a tradenark o{ Financial A d d i t i o n a l l y , i { I knon th at l ast fieek l , l ci r o D a t a , I n c . re had a de{inite lon in the narket, then @ I B a n d P C / X Ta r e r e g i s t e r e d t r a d e n a r k s n y n e xt t u r n i n g p o i n t t . l il 1 b e a p e a k . I ' m of I n t e r n a ti o n aI B u s i n e s s [ , , l a c h i n e s . n o t i n t e r e e t e d i n 1 9 9 7 ; I n a y n o t 1 i v e t h a t Inc, l o n g . I c a n o n l y m a k ef i o n e y i { I c a n b e t
cst t{EIsJ0unilAL
i l A R C H3 , 1 9 8 6
o n t h € n e x t i m n e d i a t e t u r n l n g p o in t { o r v a ri o u E c y c l e I e n g t h s . There iE not enough room in this NeHsletter to shor{ ho* narket turninq p o i n t E E a n b e 0 r e d i c t e d r i t h m o r er e l i a b i l i t y r b u t i t i E p o s s i b l e t o p r o v i d ea n u n b i a s e de s t i n e t e o f t h e n e x t p e a k a n d t h e next trough {or each qiven predominate c y c l e p e r i o d . t l s i n g a m e t h o dr { h i c ht r e a t B p e a k si n d e p e n d e not { t r o u q h s s a n p r o d u E ee non-reqular period betIeen peaks and t r o u g h E ( a n o r e r e a l i s t i c b e h a v i o r )f o r f u t u r e m a r k e tc y E I e E , E e f o r e e p e n d i n gy o u r h a r d - e a r n e d {unds o n a n y s y € t e m ,b e c a r e { u l t o d i s c o v e r r h a t y o u c a n d c u n d e F p u r e l y c h e n c Ec o n d i t i , o n s flithout it, if ftoREoil 0PTIltIzATt0ll f l a n y r e a d e r s o f o u r F e b r u a r yN e I s le t t e r h a d f u r t h E r g u e s t i o n so n o p t i n i z a t i o n , a n d t h r e e n e H sel t t e r p u b li s h e r s a s k e dp e r n is Eion to reprint last { T o n t h ' Ef e a t u r e s t o r y . T h e f o l l o H i n q a d d i t i o n e li n { o r n d t i 0 n c o n c e r n i n gt h e o p t i n i z a t i 0 n o { a trading plan nay angtrer sone o{ your questions. An inportant consideration on the repetitivE or iterative tBstinq o{ hiet o r i c a l d a t a i s t o k e e p t h e n u m b e ro { controllinq paraneters to a brief {er. V e r y o { t e n r t h i s c a n b e d o n eb y e x a f i i n i n g eaEh o{ the paraneters and determininq {hether eny t}roor more explain the Eane p h e n o n e n e .0 f c o u r s e ! t { e { a n t t o k e e p t h e paraneters at a niniftun to l!!g!g user control so our results are unbiased, l{ t r o p a r a n e t e r se x F l a i n t h s E a m ea v e n t , t h e y are redundantand the results o+ the o p t i m i z a t i o nr i l l i , n p r o v E r b u t t h e r e l i a b i l i t y o r p r e d i c t a b i l i t y o f t h e n o d e ln i l l oecrease. F o r e x a n p l e ti f t F o o f t h e p a r a n e t e r E H e r e v o I u 6 ea n d p r i c e r a n g e , a n d v o Iu m ea n d p r i c e r a n g ea r e h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d , t h e n y o u { i I l h a v e c o n s u n e dt w o d e g r e e so f f r e e d o s l t{hen only one HaB necEssary. In other } | o r d s ,i f e H i d e F r i c e r a n g e o c c u r ss h i l e p r i c e E a r e g o i n g u p o r a h i g h v o l u f i eo c c u r s t { h i l ep r i c e i s g o i n g u F r t h e n i n e i t h e r caser you night cBnclude that current | n akr e t s t r e n g t h i s b u l i i s h . 8 u t , o n t h e o t h e r h a n d , i f a r r id e
p r i c e r a n g e i s c o r r e l a t e d w it h h i 9 h v o t h E n b o t h o { t h e s e i n d e p e n d e n tv a r i a b ttould explain the saneoarket conditio The independent varia!le rith the highes
E v e r a Il p e r f o r 0 e n c e s h o u dl b e t h e o n e E h o s e n . F o r y o u r E y s t e n t o h e v ea f a i r E h a n E eo f s u c c e e d i n g t k e e pt h e n u n b e ro { p e r a n e t e r Eo v e r v r h i c hy o u t a k e c o n t r o l t o a f i in i o u n . lihen you complete your optiniration 9|ork,be sure to check your results on an independent Feriod 6f time. 1f you 0 p t i m i z e d t h e y e a r 1 9 8 5 , f o r e x a r n p l e ,d o n ' t use the reEultE unlesB they Iorked pro{itably in 1984. Be sure to check dran-down as *ell as profit and don't Jorqet to get 3uf{i,cieflt Eanples tE verify your mpthod. It l9B4 proveE to be unpro{itable,you produced a forced fit of your parameterE trith the 1995 data, You cannot use the qenerated. results You |t|usttry another approaEh, And {inally, insist thdt your softHare Eupplier provide you |{ith a systeo design permitE that this croEs checking capability. llithout it, the risk is asFi,gnedt0 your account, and the pro{i; i E a s s i g n e d t o y o u r s o f t w a r es u p p l i e r ' s : account, If sifipIE. ftoney.
you Hant it to Hork, kEep it You *i1l save tine, trouble, and
l ,ei $ e r e g r a t i { i e d by the interest e x p r e E E e db y t h e n a n y c u s t o n e r s y { h oc a l l e d Iith connents and questions about laEt 's nonth 0ptimi:ation article. tle {oundit virtually iFpossible to anstrer all the phone calls fle recei,ved t{hile re are so involved in the nany neHddditionE to our s e r y i c e . t l e r l i l l l o o k f o r t l l a r dt o h e a r i n g {ron you by fiail on that lette.r and thiE, should you have any queBtions, * C S I - C | l N S U I I EARD V O C A T?E C u s t o o e r sh a v e b e e n v e r y a p p r e c i a t i v e o { t h e a r t i c l e s l , | e} r r i t e e n d n a n y h e v e s a i d He have savedthen {ron naking unnecessary PUrChages. I don't believe lle could be classifiet a c a c o n g u m e ra d v o c a t e , b u t l { e h a v e n o t i E e d that customers tlho lEave our servi ce do so { o r o n e o v e r N h e l n i , n qr e a s o n ! P o o r n e r k e t
3 erfornance. tie decided to write on popular issues on l{hich Ie nay offer some helF. If ide can o{fer information Ihich may congerve your capital in anyray you nay stay rith CSI. [le ere alEo planning certain so{tnare that nill, re hope, ||take your futures trading norE sane dnd rational. Please read about our neH A UI E K I I A R K EATI ' I A L Y Z EpR roduct belor, gURREilTCSl LE6DS As you nay be axerer CSI does not gupply custoner naftes to mailing list p u r c h a s € r E . H o r e v e r , n o g t b r o k e r a g ef i r n s a n d c o m p u t e rf i r n s n i l l h a v e a n i n t e r e s t i n the nEH leadE thal CSI develops on a n0nthly besis. 0ur advFrtlEing bringg b E t | { p e n4 0 0 a n d 1 5 0 0 n e r i n q u i r e r s i n t o o u r E e r v i c e e a c h n o n t h , T h E E e a r e i n d i v i d u a ls { h o o H nr o r p l a n t 6 p u r c h a s e r d f i i c r o cooputer and have an interegt in the connodity, stock, or financial markets. C$I riIl accept orders for six month s u b E E r i p t i o n st o t h i E n e t " I n q u i r e r L i s t , ' f0r $150 per month. l,leo{fer a pre-payrnent d i E c o u n t o f 1 0 1 1f o r f u l I p a y m e n t o f a E i x nonth subEcription, l{e kno|{ that anyone with a needfor such a service can bene{it froo our reEponsive pronotional campaign {hich attractE an audience of ne|{traders l { h o n a y n e e d b r o k e r a g eo r a n a l y s i s h a r d r a r e and software serviEes. This o+{er is only a v e i l a b l e t o e x i s t i n g E u B t o o e r so { g S I . { EUICKIIARXET AflNLYZER This is a nen product |{hiEh has been p r o g r a n e df o r t h B A p F l e e n d i s a v + i l a b i € no$. It iB an interestinq and exciting i n that it identi{ies over a longer Froduct period of tine the type o{ marketthat currEntly exiFts. It claEsifies narket 'categories type into the three o{ trading, trendinq, or indeterminate. It *orks on d a i l y d a t a a n d h a s s o t n er e s e o bI a n c e t o t h e oduct, E U I C K D A Y T R A DpEr R Nhich re have completEd, but nhich t{e have not yet distributed, 0 U I C K I ' I A R K EATN A L Y I E R E i v e s y o u a b a r chartr a point and figure display, and s u m f i a r yr e E u l t s o f a s t a t i s t i E a l a n a l y s i s to deternine the claBs of tradinq inarket that exists. Eventuaily, this product r{itl have other pith Etudy c a p a b iI i t i e s additional graphicdisplays. It s h o u l db e
CSt itEts JouRt{AL
ilARCH3, 1986
very helpful in trading today's flarkRts. This product iE {reer but the recipient inusthave his account paid up and prepay a 1295 hiEtoriEal data order be{ore it l{ill be Bupplied. Since 0UtCKDAYTRADER p u r c h a s e r eh a v e n o t r e c E i v e d t h e i r E o { t rarFr Euch purchaEers fiay substitute
O U I C K I I A R K EATN A L Y Z E R P r 6 L E ! t u s t o m e r sd e s i r i n g b o t h 0 U I C K D A Y I R A D a nEdR 0 U I C K t " I A R K EATN A L Y Z E Rn u s t prEpay an additional $100 o{ historical data to r e E e i v eb o t h p r o d u E t s . H o w e v e r , u n t i L | { e o { f i c i a l l y a n n o u n c teh e r e l e a s e o { 0 I J I C K D A Y T R A D EpRl ,e a s e d o n o t order that pro6uct. A C C E S S ( ]HRAYR D I A RPER t l D U C T S
FORYIURI8T{l!-Sn-luIAXi!E lle have enclosed an ordEr forfi o+ a c c e s s o r y h a r d t { a r ei t e m s H h i E h y r er e g u l a r l y p r o v id e to 0 U I C K P Cp u r c h a s e r s . T h e E e hardnarp items *iIl your IBI,I rork *ith Pf,/XT, are quaranteed {or 60 days and |nay be returned pithin five days for a full you are not Eatis{ied l{ith their re{undi{ Ferformance. The prices should be much lotrer than can be obtained throuqh nErrnai outlets. PIease make all checks for y o u r h a r d $ a r e p u r c h a E ep a y a b l e t o F i n a n c i a l llicro-Data, Inc, i B A S EP R I C E I i I E R E A S EA N N t } U I { C E I l E I ' I T (affects only userB {ith Iess than 21 contracts) E {f e c t i v e o n A p r i l I , 1 9 8 6 , C S I ' s b a E e price for daily data service nill be increased approxinately l0it to 152. ThiE p r i c e i n c r p a s e n i l l a f f e c t d o m e E t i cu s e t " E of ten Eontracts or leFs and could a{{eEt some uEerE rrho coilect less than ZL Eontracts. T h e i n c r e a E e i E n e c e E E a r yt o -rising cover netlrork and other operatino Foreiqn users Iil] be affEcted s l i g h t l y m o r e E i n c p t h e n i n i m u mn o n t h l y c h a r g eI i l l n E Hb e S 4 1 , 0 0 , a p r i c e n e c e E sary for CSI to break even on these accountE. l t l e h a v e a c t u a ll y b e E n s e r v i c i n g o u r snaller users at a loss for the past yEar and hoFe this tBken increase Hill not be a burdento any of our cuEtomers. The nerJ base rate
s c h e d u l e{ o r t e n
CSI IIETSJOURI{AL
ilARCH3, 1986
c o n t r a c t s o n1 y a f f e c t l o n g d i s t a n E ea n d net{ork ueers, The 2l contract rate i s a l s o n o d i { i e d f o r { o r e ig n u s e rs . T h e t o F lines
o { t h e n e l { E c h e d u le a r e a E { o l l o H s : * (c..r p.r ftonth ot rcc...) r|!n orx lsEis 0r tttgNET/fnn{Er/uNrNET
at;i--64;ii;
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the "Divide TwoContracts" queEtion i Troqram. beqinning ol the 0UiCllPL0P ratio i,s calculated by dividing the 0-H-L o f t h e t i r s t c o n t r a c t c h o E e nb y t h e c l o g
o{ the second. Further explanation o{ dn page 74 of the t h i s o p t i o ni s d e E c r i b e o l B l , l0 UI C K T IRE V El l e n r a l .
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F U L L l , l E E K C 0 L L E C T I 0 N T l , l h e nc o l I e c t the "{ull rleek" for the laet {ive i n q 20 10 st3 \2 27 b u E i n e s sd a y s , p l e a s e n o t e t h a t i f d o n e o n F r i d a y a t t e r . t h e E l o s e ' S a t u r d a y l S u n d a yo r 9All use the "current l{eek" sERvlcE | londay until Fnol| cusTollER t{0TE3 A { t e r 9 A t ' 1I ' l o n d a y t h e { u 1 1 dEsignation. O E N E R I I A N D S P E C I F I E C t l T , I T R A C T SxIe e k c o l l e c t i o n o f t h e l a s t { i v e d a v s " o n e H e e kp a s t " ' should be done under C u s t o n e r st i h o h a v e t h e " q e n e r i c " p o r t f o l i o or
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to use-the E e t - u p a r e e n c o u r a g e dn o t C u s t o f i e r 9 u b B y s t e f i ' s " C h a n g eu s e F P o r t foIio" to ftodi{y their daily portfollo. T h e s u b B y E t e nN a E n o t d e B i g n € dt o h a n d l e c h a n g e Et o t h e n u o b E r o f c o n t r a c t s t 0 r e c e iv e e a c h d a y o r t h e d a t e o { r o l I fortrerd. Deletion o{ an unwantedelivery o n l y r e n o v et h e c u r r e n t n o n t h fionth nill y e a r b e in q s e n t a n d m a y r e s u l t i n y o u r and r e c e i v i n g t h e s a f i ed e l i v e r y m o n t hb u t w i t h a delivBry year of the next yeer out' You n a y u s e t h e " E n t e r f i e s s a q e{ o r C S I " P o r t i o n | { l e B E a gr e q u e s t i n g a n y c h a n q e s to send d t o y o u r " g e n e r i c "p o r t { o l i o . 0 t h e r n i s ey o u would need to place a call to CSI's C u E t o m eSr e r v i c e D e p a r t n e n tt o i n i t i a t e t h e changes. you are currently usinq the I{ " E p e E i + i c "f o r o a t a n d h a v e b e e n u s i n g t h e C u s t o m e r S u b s y s t e r n ,FI e a s e n o t e t h a t t h e nade through the additions/dEletions interact sith CSI'E E u b E y E t e f dt i r e c t l y c o m p u t e ra n d c a n b e r e a l i z e d o n t h e u E e r ' 3 end only after a systeo copy is nade (8At'l you $iEh to eet-up a If and SPl,l daily). port{olio chanqe for sone point in thE ( t h e end o{ the nonth for exanole). future p l e a 9 e u E e e i t h e r t h e m e s s a g ep o r t i o n o f t h e s u b s y s t e n o r c a l l C u s t o i n e rS e r v i c e , I f you uEe the "Change user Portfolio" and t h e n e n t e r a f t E s s a g e" d o n o t p r o c e s E u n t i l end of ftonth"! $e ouEt enter your porttolio and delete the contacts aE they rill shor u p t h a t a J t e r n o o ni n y o u r c o l l e c t i o n . T h i s Hill result in a S5.00 port{oIio charqe { e e , u n l e s s y o u h a v e r e q u e s t e da h i B t o r i E a l file. iBI'l AUICKPLoTI 0uestions have been raised about thE nethBduEedin calculation o l t h e r a t i o F r o d u c e db y a n s H e r i n g " y e s " t o
Rtl6RAi{flER?. L t i O K I N EF i ] R A N E X P E R i E N C EPD RAFTSI'lAN, 0N P h i l B o r o d ' t h e I N F O R I ' I A T 1C He i,s an H o u I d a n s | { e rt h a t d e s c r i p t i o n . old {riend o{ CSI and you ftay rrrite hin at P,0. Box 693218 in I'liani 35269, or call 505/652-2930. r o+ Com|1odity Futures [-e_!_n !_!_q__gl-q.Lle A d v is o r y , 5 6 E o n a t e r c e l , l a y , l , l o b u r n , f"lA 0 1 8 0 1 ,i E a n o i d f r i e n d a n d l o y e l E u E t o m e r of CSI. He is available for tutorinq iand Cornpu-Trac. Hi;IBI1 0uicktrieve s y s t ens goes back to b o t h e x p e r i e n c er i t h t h e n e r uEer a conPlete a n d h e o f { e r E 1979, f o r t h e c o m p u t e r hard$arE' His set-up p l u s e x p e n s e s ra n d p e r $ 5 0 h o u r ! charqe is 1 9 3 8-4700' a l 6 1 7 m a v r e a c h h i m vou JuIes E. 6reenstein iB a TeEhnicoft d i E t r i b u t o r a n d o f f e r s a p r o g r a nc a l l e d Pro{it Eatcher Comnodity Trading System. y o u are interest€d in learninq oore I{ a b o u t i t r y o u t n a yc o n t a E t f l r ' E r E e n E t e i na t 2265tlest||ood Boulevardr Los Anqeles, CA 90064,or calI ?ll/2-PR0FIT. D a v id l l u s z y n s k i o { [ " l e | | | o r yS y s t e n st P.0. Box 885, Skoxie, IL 60076, has juEt o{ their version released the latest For oore i.n{ornation, Technical Trader. DI e a s e c a l l h i 0 a t 3 1 2 / 6 7 4 - 4 8 J 1 . I T I C R t } V E SSTt ] F T T { A RREE V I E I i cursory look at lle have taken a productBof "Hi9F s o f t N e r e the f,,licroVest " P r o { i t 0ptinizer" and prel imlTech" and f i n d t h e m t o h a v e t n a n yp o B i t i v e inarily T h e r e a re nearly ttro dozen {eatureE. " s t u d i E s " a n d a c a p a b iI i t y f o r p a r a 0 e t B r
