SWARM PLANNING: DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW PLANNING PARADIGM, WHICH IMPROVES THE CAPACITY OF REGIONAL SPATIAL SYSTEMS TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE 1
Rob Roggema Ir. 2 Andy van den Dobbelsteen Dr. Ir. Keywords: Regional design, climate change, spatial planning, complexity, swarm planning, climate mapping
SUMMARY Climate on earth is changing. Due to these changes mankind is forced to adapt as well as to produce energy, which minimises the effect on global warming. The question is how spatial planning is capable to contribute to realise these aims. The changes in society - which becomes increasingly complex and two-sided – may be used as a chance. In order to adapt and produce energy the potentials in a region should be used. They can found by mapping the energy and adaptation potentials of the region. Once they are mapped they can be integrated in climate proof designs, which are able to make regions more resilient. The realisation of these designs should be conducted by starting processes instead of define an end-plan. The processes are started by creating the right impulses and realise the right enduring patterns in the landscape. Both are able to influence the entire regional system. To create impulses - which are able to start a process of realising integrated climate proof designs - a new planning paradigm is required: swarm planning.
1.
Climate Change
Global warming develops slowly, but continuously. The most recent 150 years show a clear, yet extreme, warming. Trying to stop this process will take a long time – decennia or more. Warming of the atmosphere enhances a slow warming of the oceans, which react – due to their large warmingcapacity – very slow. The emissions of greenhouse gases of recent decennia, combined with current emissions, lead to a warming, which will continue for the next decennia. Beside the reduction of emissions, aiming to reduce climate change, mankind has to adapt to the upcoming changes in climate [IPCC, 2007a+b, Gore, 2006, Stern, 2006]. Table 1.2 Two scenarios (2050) for Groningen [Roggema, 2007a]
Precipitation autumn
spring
Royal Dutch Accelerated Melting Land Meteorological Institute Ice-scenario (KNMI) - scenario and + 20% + 30%
Precipitation summer
- 20%
- 40%
Precipitation winter
+ 15%
+ 30%
Temperature
+ 1,5
+ 3,0
Sea level rise
+ 35 cm
+ 150 cm
The province of Groningen [Roggema, 2007a] developed two scenarios. The first scenario is based on a combination of the four KNMI-scenarios [KNMI, 2006]. For the second scenario, an accelerated 1
Ph.D Technical University Delft, Faculty of Architecture and Wageningen University, Earth System Sciences & Manager Strategy and Regional Planning, Province of Groningen,
[email protected] 2 Assistant Professor, Technical University Delft, Faculty of Architecture,
[email protected]
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melting of the land ice masses of Greenland and Antarctica is taken as the base. Both scenarios are defined for 2050. In table 1.2 parameters of these scenarios are summarised. Both scenarios were developed to show the broad range of possible futures. If policies are developed – which is the purpose in Groningen – future adaptation policies can be developed in a robust way, making use of the range described in these scenarios. In every era the climate changes. The speed is mostly subject of debate. It is expected that the aim to freeze the rise of temperature on a level of +2°C by the end of the century is difficult to achieve and that a rise with 3°C is more likely to happen. The sea level might have risen by then with at least one metre and – if ice-sheets of Greenland and the Western Antarctic are melting more rapidly – even more. Furthermore, it is impossible to fixate the emissions of greenhouse gasses immediately. Even if this might be possible, temperature on earth and the sea level will continue to rise for the next decades. There is a multiple urgency: on the one hand side mankind is forced to adapt to the consequences of climate change and on the other hand mankind is obliged to produce energy in a way that minimises the effect on global warming.
2.
The incorporation of adaptation in planning
The timeframe of changes in climate is spread out over a long period. Starting now, it will continue for the next century and beyond. This means that it has approximately the same time span as building houses. They are supposed to last also 100 year or more. And it certainly has the same resonance as the design of urban and other spatial structures and patterns, which will last over centuries. Theoretically it must be easy to combine long-term changes and developments with spatial planning. But in practice spatial planning mostly fixes its horizon on a period of ten years (figure 2.1). By doing so an unnecessary difficulty is introduced. Although it is rather simple to incorporate long-term changes in the spatial planning system, it is seldom done in practice. If we look at the new spatial law in the Netherlands [Staatsblad, 2006, Schoot, 2007] and the current practice of development planning, the issues can hardly be found in plans. A more anticipative planning system needs to be developed, which connects more to recent and future societal developments.
Figure 2.1
3.
Connection of long- and short-term [Roggema, 2007c]
A changing society
In the Internet society, one is not only a consumer of news, adds or products, but also generator of information and able to deliver to the Internet in order to share it with others. This free space of exchange, where every consumer is also a producer, might influence the spatial design of regions. Adaptation to climate change and the sustainable supply of energy are issues, which might lead to serious problems on the long term. These changes are fundamental and irreversible. Therefore, it is important to take measures now. These measures need to encourage desired longterm developments at short notice. Existing planning methods – which try to fix the future on a term of max 10 years – and the regular political focus of four to eight years, need to be connected with a further future (see figure 2.1). This requires a new design paradigm. This paradigm needs to enclose the characteristics of the transition to the Internet society [Toffler, 2006] and Web 2.0 [Eye, 2007, NRC Next, 2007].
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3.1 Serious changes Serious changes are ahead of us. They can be summarised as follows: • The make-ability of the world or a society is an idée fixe; • Climate change is an illustration of how an increasing series of complex interactions lead to visible problems. The exact relations between interactions and effects are impossible to overview by individuals; • Required measures need to encourage desired longterm developments at short notice. This requires a new design paradigm, which needs to enclose the characteristics of the transition to the internet society and Web 2.0; • The new economy is a connection of people, ideas and information. In this new economy flexible network organisations take over. In this new world it is more important to be a contributor and connector than owner of knowledge or goods. Not the possession is the key factor, but the immaterial, virtual additions to the net and the exchange of information is; • If we sustain the Internet development on the developments in climate change new landscapes lie in front of us. It is no longer only possible to consume, but also to deliver climate resiliency to the spatial environment. The changes in society offer a chance to adapt more easily to climate change, because large groups of people intend to work together, not in a power based way, but by contributing values. This state of mind opens views to a stronger build society than the hierarchical one, because people are no longer only consuming energy or political messages, but they start to produce them theirselves and start contributing. Instead of a one-way society a both ends-society is emerging. The only thing is that these large groups need to be steered to start those processes, which enhance the resiliency of a region and thus make it a more adaptive one.
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Mapping climate potentials
We know that the climate is changing and that it is hard to integrate this in regular planning systems, but that there are chances based on the emergence in a both-ends-society. If these chances are to be taken seriously, the knowledge of this fuzzy future needs to be available. To get this information available a method of mapping the potentials may be used [Dobbelsteen et al. 2006, Roggema et al. 2006]. This mapping method can be used for the energy as well as for the climate issues. The key-factors in climate knowledge, which are crucial for spatial functions, are precipitation and sea level rise. 4.1
Precipitation
The future changes in precipitation are shown in figure 4.1. The maps show for Groningen and Drenthe provinces the possible changes in 2050 in two KNMI ’06 [KNMI, 2006] scenarios for both the winter and summer period.
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Figure 4.1 Precipitation in the winter and summer six-month period (1976-2005, W-scenario and W+scenario) [DHV et al. 2008] Main outcomes of the analysis of precipitation maps are: 1. In the summer period drought will probably increase. In the ‘dry’ scenario of the KNMI (W+) in the peat colonies the drought will become the biggest problem. In this area the water shortage is at this moment already a problem – partly solved by the inlet of IJssel lake water from outside the area - and this problem will increase. Another development, not visible on the maps, is the increasing intensity of severe rain showers. 2. According to the KNMI ’06 scenarios, autumn, winter and spring become wetter. Although a dry summer will have its ‘drying’ effects, which will lead to average dryer autumns, the total amount of precipitation in the winter period shows an increase. 4.2
Sea level rise
The sea level rise as a result of global warming will continue the next centuries. To what extend depends on the speed of melting processes of land ice. Even if we stop today with the emissions of CO2, the melting processes will continue in this period. Therefore, we must adapt to the rise of the sea level. The maps (figure 4.2) show the impact of the rise of the sea level for Groningen in two scenarios and compared with the current altitudes (+50 and +150 centimetres) if the sea could enter the land undisturbed. In reality the landscape contains several obstacles (roads, little dikes), which prevent the sea from flooding the land without barriers.
Figure 4.2 Flooding according to altitude lines (current situation (left), 50 cm sea level rise (middle) and 150 cm (right), [Roggema et al. 2007a] The maps show an illustrative and theoretical image based on altitude lines. The maps are not taking into account the circumstances in which a breakthrough takes place, namely when the sea level is much higher than normal (spring tide) and heavy rain and wind is appearing. The map is not showing the meaning of maintenance of dikes in order to keep them strong and a breakthrough is less likely to happen. But the impact of a much faster melting land ice, leading to a sea level of maximum + 3 metres above the current level in 2100, is also not visualised in the maps. 4.4
Idea-map Climate Adapted Groningen
Climate analyses and notification of the effects on existing functions lead to an Idea Map of adaptive Groningen (figure 4.3), in which the adaptation principles are spatially translated. The map can be read as a spatial image of climate design ideas. The Idea Map shows the spatial design of the principles. In the lower zones water is collected. This lower area plays also a major role in a main robust wet ecological connection between Dollard and Lauwers Lake. Existing brooks discharge their water towards this wet zone. A robust ecological network emerges, which offers space for existing as well as colonising species. Because these area is located at the lowest parts of the area the water can flow naturally towards this zone. The surplus of water in autumn and spring can be collected here. Nature has the best chances to survive in these areas in dry summers. The reservoirs are also functioning as the source to provide of agriculture especially in the Peat Colonies, by making use of the, partly existing, canal system under the condition that this is economically feasible. This makes it possible to continue the potato starch production. The
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supply with clean water is necessary, because the groundwater level will drop and becomes saline in the ‘dry’ KNMI scenarios, which decreases the availability of water in summer. In front of the Northern Coast new Wadden Islands are created to facilitate protection, nature development, living and recreation. New protecting Wadden-islands Safe, high harbour and industrial areas
Experiments with saline agriculture Existing agriculture on clay Living on new wierden Low lying wet ecological zone, living with water in low densities Large scale agriculture in the Peat colonies
Living in higher densities on higher grounds
Figure 4.3 Idea-map Climate Adapted Groningen [Roggema, 2007a]
5.
Swarm planning
The next step is to define those kind of measures which are coherent with the adaptation aims and fit in the future society. The way this climate-resiliency can be improved may be found by comparing the spatial system of a region with a self-organising system and the way these systems increase their overall fitness [Homan, 2005] (or become more resilient) and reaching a higher level of complexity. Tipping point offer insights in the way these kind of changes can be enhanced. The possibility of sudden change is at the centre of the idea of the tipping point. Big changes occur as a result of small events. The situation is similar to the phenomenon of an epidemic. Epidemics follow three rules [Gladwell, 2000]. By applying these rules to planning and design, the question when a design becomes a success and reaches required changes, can be understood. First of all the law of the few tells us that a successful design will originate from a small group of individuals. The design is not what the common people expect. To change things the design will be away-from-the average [Ridderstråle and Nordström, 2004, Roggema, 2005]. Secondly, the stickiness factor suggests that a successful design sticks in ones heads. Once having seen the image of the design it is not forgotten. A good example of this is the design for Almere Poort, the Wall (figure 5.1) [MVRDV et al, 2001]. Finally, the power of context in relation to design processes tells us that a design with huge impact provides the solution to a commonly felt problem. If a fundamental change is required, a widely shared context of deep trouble improves the chances of change. A sense of real urgency is required for fundamental change. If the existing system dissatisfies, a crisis is required to jump to the next level of complexity required to upgrade the system (figure 5.1) [Geldof, 2002, Timmermans, 2004]. These crises can be seen as the tipping points in design processes.
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Figure 5.1 The Wall in Almere Poort, MVRDV, 1999 Crisis enforces the jump to a higher level, Geldof, 2002 5.1 A new design paradigm In this paradigm the role of spatial design is seen as introducing essential impulses to influence the whole system, like a swarm of birds is reshaping itself constantly under external influences. Spatial design will no longer be concerned with the whole picture, but will focus on those essential design interventions that enforce the region to reshape it self. The metaphor is not any longer the blueprint, but acupuncture. Thus, for a swarm planning approach [Roggema et al, 2006, 2008a+b] to be successful, two aspects are essential: the (spatial) characteristics of the region and the availability of extraordinary ideas. Complex systems theory suggests that the swarm paradigm will work where the following conditions are met: • A large group of individual elements (people, buildings) • Many connections (virtual, roads, rail, water) • High quality of relations (fast, intense) • High quality network (flexibility, intensity) • Enough, but not too much, diversity (neighbourhoods, groups) • Several co-existing patterns (patches) If these circumstances pertain idea-mergers between different elements will lead to creative jumps, and new structures and information is created. A small group of extravagant idea creating people will enforce this and transform it into a sticky idea, which influences and shapes large parts of the region. If the sense of urgency is there -climate change for instance- a suitable trigger brings the idea to a tipping point and collective patterns emerge out of co-evolution of local systems, leading to an increased overall fitness of the system [Homan, 2005], which is able to adapt more easily to climate change. 5.2
Kwelderworks Eemsdike and blauwe stad examples
The project Building on structures [Meliefste et al, 2008] shows several interesting interventions, aiming to anticipate on future climate change. The propsed intervention is dealing with the rising sea level and the upcoming shortage of drinking water. The proposal is to store fresh water in the Lauwers Lake and adjust the water level there up to the level of the risen sea (figure 5.2). By doing so it is possible to let the water flow into the sea without pumping. But more important, the entire water system (the swarm in this example) of Groningen is forced to adapt itself. The risen water level in Lauwers Lake implies also the rise of water level in Reitdiep and other small canals and brooks. The result of this will be that the capacity to store rainwater is increased dramatically. And this helps to solve the problem of heavy rain showers and potential flooding in villages and towns. In other words, by solving the first problem and intervene in the Lauwers Lake, the entire region is challenged to adapt to the effects of climate change: the swarm reshapes. The same kind of analysis can be made for the planning process of the Blauwe stad.
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Figure 5.2 Proposal for fresh water storage in Lauwers Lake [Meliefste et al, 2008] (left) and Blauwe stad (right) 5.3
Steer the Swarm
Because of the inability of traditional spatial planning to create and reinforce effective interventions, capable of changing the regional system, a new steering principle needs to be developed. In the environmental spatial plan of the Province of Groningen [Roggema et al, 2007] this issue is explored in some depth, leading to the decision to develop a range of approaches to influence the spatial system (figure 5.8). In doing so it is hoped that the best regime to realise a satisfactory outcome will emerge. The aim is to end up with a regime that is able to change the direction of the 'swarm' towards a high standard of spatial quality and resiliency. The most appropriate approaches may differ from area to area, depending on their identity, and the availability of a number of approaches to choose from in combination with the unique characteristics of the area will make it possible to retain the flexibility to make the area adaptive to uncertain future developments.
6.
Conclusions and discussion
If the future society wants to deal with changes on the long term, like the adaptation to climate change, it should organise its planning system according the rules of the future society. Swarm planning, in which the contribution of large number of people are used to change the form of its spatial order and the people are steered in the direction of resiliency by the introduction of a certain well-defined impulse, makes use of the new rules in society. These rules include an increased two-sided exchange of values and collective attributions. In order to make use of these new rules, swarm planning needs to adjust the characteristics of complex adaptive systems. By doing so, swarm planning may be able to increase the overall fitness of the system, i.e. increase the resiliency. The following characteristics are important: 1. A large pool of genes (measures, inhabitants, functions), some simple rules and enlargement of trails (improving impact) is the start of changes on the long-term 2. The genes of regions, the trails and the simple rules, which may be successful in turning a region into a climate-proof one, are yet to be found. The elements, which play in the future society a major role in interconnecting, are not clear yet. In history, the sidewalks in a neighbourhood functioned like the interconnection platform, but today and in the future interconnections are made in a different way and at different places. The transport system, the sidewalk, the stranger (the away-from-the-average) and the ‘city’ of our time is yet to be discovered; 3. Swarm planning (large pool), with a well-defined (simple rule) impulse (which is able to enlarges the trail/impact) may be able to steer a region into the desired direction If decision-makers in a region decide on the required interventions, which can be discovered by mapping the energy and adaptation potentials of a region, it is well possible to incorporate them in the spatial planning system, which is lied down in the new spatial law in the Netherlands. Far more difficult is it to realise a climate proof region by using development planning as it takes longer times and tends to be compromisional. Several subjects and questions raised in this paper require further research: a. The way the complexity can be used in spatial terms
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b. The exact effects of interventions on the resiliency of the region and the level of adaptation and energy supply c. The way the interventions are put together and chosen.
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