Seedling Size and Reforestation Success How Big is Big Enough?

29 downloads 0 Views 87KB Size Report
The subsequent discussion tries to determine Ihow big is big enough' when it comes to seedling size and reforestation success. Stock Quality and Seedlings of.
)25(675(6($5&+,1)250$7,213$3(5

6HHGOLQJ6L]HDQG5HIRUHVWDWLRQ6XFFHVV +RZ%LJLV%LJ(QRXJK" 6&*URVVQLFNOH 1XUVHU\7R)RUHVW6ROXWLRQV5HDGLQJV'ULYH6LGQH\%&&DQDGD9/. VHHGOLQJVXEV\VWHPV 5LWFKLH 6SUXFHVHHGOLQJV JURZQLQODUJHYROXPHFRQWDLQHUVKDYHJUHDWHUVKRRWDQG URRWVL]HEXWPDLQWDLQIDLUO\FRPSDUDEOHEDODQFHZLWKLQ WKHLUVKRRWV\VWHP LHKHLJKWWRGLDPHWHUUDWLRV DQG EHWZHHQWKHLUVKRRWDQGURRWV\VWHP LHVKRRWWRURRW UDWLRV  7DEOH (YHQWKRXJKODUJHYROXPHFRQWDLQHUV SURGXFHGODUJHUVHHGOLQJVDOORIWKHVHVWRFNW\SHVPHW WDUJHWVSHFL¿FDWLRQVIRUµSODQWDEOH¶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

,QWURGXFWLRQ )RUHVWHUVDUHIUHTXHQWO\FRQIURQWHGZLWKWKHRSWLRQRI SODQWLQJVHHGOLQJVWKDWKDYHDUDQJHRIVL]HV0RVW SUDFWLWLRQHUVDVVXPHWKDWODUJHUSODQWLQJVWRFNKDV JUHDWHULQKHUHQWSHUIRUPDQFHFDSDELOLW\WRJURZODUJHU DQGIDVWHUFRPSHWHZLWKYHJHWDWLRQIRUVLWHUHVRXUFHV XQGHU¿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¿HOGSHUIRUPDQFHIURPDELRORJLFDOSHUVSHFWLYH7KH VXEVHTXHQWGLVFXVVLRQWULHVWRGHWHUPLQHµKRZELJLVELJ HQRXJK¶ZKHQLWFRPHVWRVHHGOLQJVL]HDQGUHIRUHVWDWLRQ VXFFHVV

6SUXFHVHHGOLQJVRIDOOVL]HVKDYHFRPSDUDEOH SK\VLRORJLFDOVWRFNTXDOLW\DWWULEXWHV 7DEOH 7KLVLV UHÀHFWHGLQWKHVLPLODUGURXJKWWROHUDQFHDQGDYRLGDQFH IRUVSUXFHVHHGOLQJVJURZQRYHUDUDQJHRIFRQWDLQHU YROXPHV3KRWRV\QWKHWLFFDSDELOLW\ZDVDOVRFRPSDUDEOH EHWZHHQVHHGOLQJVRIYDULRXVFRQWDLQHUVL]HV7KLV LQGLFDWHVWKDWSURGXFLQJDPRUSKRORJLFDOO\ODUJHUVHHGOLQJ GRHVQRWFRQIHUDQ\DGGLWLRQDOSK\VLRORJLFDOVWRFNTXDOLW\ DWWULEXWHVWRHQKDQFHSHUIRUPDQFHXQGHURSWLPXPRU OLPLWLQJHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQV,IWKHUHLVDEHQH¿WRID ODUJHUVHHGOLQJLQUHODWLRQWRSK\VLRORJLFDOSHUIRUPDQFH LWLVWKDWLWVJUHDWHUIROLDUPDVVDOORZVIRUJUHDWHUVHHGOLQJ SKRWRV\QWKHWLFFDSDFLW\7KLVFDSDELOLW\FRXOGEHFULWLFDO LQHQKDQFLQJWKHDELOLW\RIODUJHUVHHGOLQJVWRJURZ TXLFNO\DQGRFFXS\VLWHUHVRXUFHVGXULQJHVWDEOLVKPHQW *URVVQLFNOH 

6WRFN4XDOLW\DQG6HHGOLQJVRI 9DULRXV6L]HV 6WRFNTXDOLW\FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQSURYLGHVLQIRUPDWLRQ RQVLPLODULWLHVDQGGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQVWRFNW\SHV 7KLVFKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQDOORZVRQHWRKDYHDEHWWHU XQGHUVWDQGLQJRISHUIRUPDQFHFDSDELOLWLHVRIQXUVHU\ JURZQVHHGOLQJVDQGWKXVDEHWWHUFDSDELOLW\WRIRUHFDVW WKHLU¿HOGSHUIRUPDQFH6WRFNTXDOLW\LVDVHHGOLQJ¶V ³¿WQHVVIRUSXUSRVH´DVLWUHODWHVWRDFKLHYLQJVSHFL¿F VLOYLFXOWXUDOREMHFWLYHV /DYHQGHUHWDO ,QWKLV LQVWDQFHH[DPSOHVVKRZYDULDWLRQLQVWRFNTXDOLW\RI VHHGOLQJVIURPDFURVVDUDQJHRIFRQWDLQHUFDYLW\VL]HV DQGYDULDWLRQWKDWFDQRFFXUZLWKLQDVLQJOHFRQWDLQHU FDYLW\VL]H

6HHGOLQJSHUIRUPDQFHDWWULEXWHVYHUVXV VHHGOLQJVL]H

6HHGOLQJPDWHULDODWWULEXWHVYHUVXVVHHGOLQJ VL]H

,QWKLVVHFRQGH[DPSOHVSUXFHVHHGOLQJVJURZQLQD VLPLODUFRQWDLQHUFDYLW\VL]HDUHFRPSDUHGIRUWKHLUVWRFN TXDOLW\SHUIRUPDQFHDWWULEXWHVLQUHODWLRQWRVHHGOLQJVL]H YDULDWLRQ3HUIRUPDQFHDWWULEXWHVUHÀHFWDQLQWHJUDWHG HIIHFWRIPDQ\PDWHULDODWWULEXWHVDUHHQYLURQPHQWDOO\

,QWKLV¿UVWH[DPSOHVSUXFHVHHGOLQJVJURZQLQDUDQJHRI FRQWDLQHUFDYLW\VL]HVDUHFRPSDUHGIRUWKHLUVWRFNTXDOLW\ PDWHULDODWWULEXWHV0DWHULDODWWULEXWHVDUHVLQJOHSRLQW PHDVXUHVRILQGLYLGXDOSDUDPHWHUVWKDWUHSUHVHQWVSHFL¿F



)25(675(6($5&+,1)250$7,213$3(5

7DEOH6WRFNW\SHPDWHULDODWWULEXWHFKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ PHDQ6( RILQWHULRUVSUXFHVHHGOLQJV VWRFNIURPWKHVDPHVHHGORW  SURGXFHGLQWKUHHFRQWDLQHU6W\UREORFNŒIRUPDWVIRUWKHVXPPHUSODQWLQJSURJUDP DGDSWHGIURP*URVVQLFNOH 

$WWULEXWH

%‚

'‚

$‚

+HLJKW

FP

FP

FP

'LDPHWHU

PP

PP

PP

+HLJKWWRGLDPHWHUUDWLR







6KRRWGU\ZHLJKW

J

J

J

5RRWGU\ZHLJKW

J

J

J

6KRRWWRURRWUDWLR







1XPEHURIEUDQFKHV







1XPEHURIEXGV







1XPEHURIQHHGOHSULPRUGLD







1HWSKRWRV\QWKHVLV —PROPV







'URXJKWWROHUDQFH 2VPRWLFSRWHQWLDODWWXUJRUORVV SRLQW 03D







'URXJKW$YRLGDQFH &XWLFXODUWUDQVSLUDWLRQ PJ+2 J': K







‚$OOVWRFNW\SHVZHUHJURZQLQIRUPDW6W\UREORFNŠFRQWDLQHUV %HDYHU3ODVWLFV/WG LQWKHIROORZLQJLQGLYLGXDOFDYLW\YROXPHV%DW P/'DWPODQG$DWP/

0HHWVRUH[FHHGVWKHDFFHSWHG%&0R)WDUJHW 6FDJHOHWDO 

*URVVQLFNOHDQG)RON 7KLVDVVHVVPHQWDSSURDFK FRPSOHPHQWVUHVXOWVRIWKH5*&WHVWDQGWKHFRPELQDWLRQ RIWKHVHWHVWVSURYLGHVDPHDQVRIGH¿QLQJRYHUDOO VHHGOLQJJURZWKSHUIRUPDQFH

VHQVLWLYHVHHGOLQJSURSHUWLHVDQGDUHPHDVXUHGXQGHU VSHFL¿FWHVWLQJFRQGLWLRQV 5LWFKLH 6HHGOLQJURRW JURZWKLVWKHPRVWFRPPRQO\PHDVXUHGSHUIRUPDQFH DWWULEXWHXVHGLQRSHUDWLRQDOSURJUDPVWKURXJKRXWWKH ZRUOGWRGH¿QHVWRFNTXDOLW\ 5LWFKLH6XWWRQ 6LPSVRQDQG5LWFKLH 7KDWLVEHFDXVHURRWJURZWK FDSDFLW\ 5*& LVDGLUHFWLQGLFDWRURIDVHHGOLQJVDELOLW\ WRJURZURRWVDQGLVDJHQHUDOLQGLFDWRUWKDWDOOV\VWHPVLQ WKHVHHGOLQJDUHIXQFWLRQLQJSURSHUO\DQGWKXVSURYLGHVD PHDVXUHRIVHHGOLQJSHUIRUPDQFHSRWHQWLDO 5LWFKLH %XUGHWW 6KRRWJURZWKLVDOVRFULWLFDOIRUUHFHQWO\ SODQWHGVSUXFHVHHGOLQJV1HZVKRRWJURZWKDOORZVWKH VHHGOLQJWRRFFXS\WKHVLWHDQGEHFRPHGRPLQDQWZLWKLQ WKHUHIRUHVWDWLRQVLWHYHJHWDWLRQFRPSOH[7KHVKRRW JURZWKSRWHQWLDOWHVWGH¿QHVWKHDELOLW\RIVHHGOLQJV WREUHDNEXGDQGJURZQHZVKRRWVXQGHUGH¿QHG HQYLURQPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQV )RONDQG*URVVQLFNOH

6HHGOLQJVL]HDIIHFWHGVSUXFHVHHGOLQJVDELOLW\WRJURZ URRWV6HHGOLQJVZLWKJUHDWHULQLWLDOURRWZHLJKWLQJHQHUDO KDGJUHDWHUURRWJURZWK )LJ$ 6WXGLHVKDYHVKRZQ WKDWJUHDWHULQLWLDOURRWPDVVLVUHODWHGWRJUHDWHU5*&LQ SLQH -RKQVHQHWDO:LOOLDPVHWDO DQGVSUXFH *URVVQLFNOHDQG0DMRU VHHGOLQJV&RQWDLQHUJURZQ VSUXFHVHHGOLQJVKDYHDKLJK¿HOGVXUYLYDOSRWHQWLDO ZKHQVHHGOLQJVDYHUDJHDWOHDVWWHQQHZURRWV ! FPLQOHQJWK SHUSODQW %XUGHWWHWDO6LPSVRQ  2QWKHRWKHUKDQGVSUXFHVHHGOLQJVZLWKORZ 5*& QHZURRWV KDYHWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUSRRU¿HOG VXUYLYDO %XUGHWWHWDO6LPSVRQ 7KLVLVZK\ WKH5*&WKUHVKROGRIDWOHDVWQHZURRWVLVXVHGDVD



)25(675(6($5&+,1)250$7,213$3(5

EDWFKFXOOLQJJXLGHOLQHLQ%ULWLVK&ROXPELDIRUFRQWDLQHU JURZQVHHGOLQJV 6LPSVRQHWDO 7KHUHLVDOVRD PLQLPXPDFFHSWHGURRWZHLJKW WDUJHWURRWZHLJKW J  IRUFRQWDLQHUJURZQVSUXFHVHHGOLQJV 6FDJHOHWDO  ,QJHQHUDODVORQJDVVSUXFHVHHGOLQJVURRWV\VWHPVVL]H H[FHHGVWKLVWDUJHWURRWZHLJKWWKH\KDYHDVWXUG\URRW SOXJWKDWFDQJURZHQRXJKURRWVWRHQVXUHJRRGVHHGOLQJ HVWDEOLVKPHQWZLWKLQUHIRUHVWDWLRQSURJUDPVWKRXJK VHHGOLQJVZLWKJUHDWHUURRWZHLJKWLQJHQHUDOJURZD JUHDWHUQXPEHURIURRWV

VSUXFHVHHGOLQJVKDYHDJUHDWHUQXPEHURIEUDQFKHV DQGEXGV 7DEOH 7KXVZKHQDOORIWKHVHEXGVEUHDN DQGWKHVKRRWV\VWHPHORQJDWHVODUJHUVHHGOLQJVSXWRQ SURSRUWLRQDOO\JUHDWHUDPRXQWVRIVKRRWELRPDVV7KLV DOORZVODUJHUVHHGOLQJVWRRFFXS\DJUHDWHUDUHDZLWKLQWKH SODQWLQJVSRWDQGFDSWXUHPRUHRIWKHVLWHUHVRXUFHV LH LQFRPLQJVRODUUDGLDWLRQ 

)LHOG3HUIRUPDQFH5HODWHGWR,QLWLDO6HHGOLQJ 6L]H 7ULDOVKDYHEHHQFRQGXFWHGWRGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHUWKHUH LVDEHQH¿WWRSODQWLQJODUJHUVHHGOLQJVWRHQVXUHJRRG SODQWDWLRQHVWDEOLVKPHQWRQUHIRUHVWDWLRQVLWHV7KHVH ¿HOGWULDOVKDYHIRXQGWKDWSODQWLQJODUJHUVHHGOLQJVFDQ EHEHQH¿FLDOWRVHHGOLQJHVWDEOLVKPHQWDQGEHWWHUJURZWK XSWR\HDUVDIWHUSODQWLQJ 6PLWK&KDYDVVH 2YHUWRQDQG&KLQJ%DOQHDYHV1HZWRQ HWDO6RXWKHWDO6RXWKHWDO=ZROLQVNL HWDO0DVRQ 7KLVSDWWHUQZDVDOVRHYLGHQW LQ¿HOGWULDOVZLWKYDULRXVVSUXFHVSHFLHV6LWND 6RXWK DQG0DVRQ ZKLWH 0XOOLQDQG6YDWRQ0XOOLQ DQG&KULVWO0F0LQQ-RELGRQHWDO  LQWHULRU 'REEV9\VH+LQHVDQG/RQJ 6XWKHUODQGDQG1HZVRPH DQGEODFN -RELGRQHWDO -RELGRQHWDO 

6HHGOLQJVL]HDIIHFWHGVSUXFHVHHGOLQJVDELOLW\WRJURZ DGGLWLRQDOQHZVKRRWV\VWHP6HHGOLQJVZLWKJUHDWHU LQLWLDOVKRRWVL]HLQJHQHUDOKDGJUHDWHUWRWDOVHHGOLQJ QHZVKRRWJURZWK )LJ% 7KLVRFFXUVEHFDXVHODUJHU

6RZKDWLVWKHPDMRUEHQH¿WRISODQWLQJODUJHUVHHGOLQJV ZLWKLQPDQ\UHIRUHVWDWLRQSURJUDPV",QWXLWLYHO\RQHZRXOG DVVXPHWKDWVHHGOLQJVZLWKODUJHUURRWDQGVKRRWV\VWHPV KDYHJUHDWHUSRWHQWLDOIRUUDSLGVLWHRFFXSDWLRQDQG DFFHVVRIVLWHUHVRXUFHVGXULQJWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWSKDVH 7KLVVHFWLRQUHYLHZVSXEOLVKHGZRUNRQVHHGOLQJVL]HLQ UHODWLRQWRHFRSK\VLRORJLFDOSHUIRUPDQFHDQGVHHGOLQJ HVWDEOLVKPHQW

5HVSRQVHWRFRPSHWLWLRQ

)LJXUH6WRFNTXDOLW\SHUIRUPDQFH PHDQ6( RILQWHULRU VSUXFHVHHGOLQJV VWRFNIURPJHQHWLFVRXUFHVZLWKLQWKH VDPHVHHGORW SURGXFHGLQWKH%FRQWDLQHU6W\UREORFNŒ IRUPDW POFDYLW\YROXPH VKRZLQJ$ URRWJURZWKFDSDFLW\ LQUHODWLRQWRWKHRULJLQDOURRWZHLJKWJURZQDWWKUHHGLIIHUHQW QXUVHULHVIRUHLWKHUVSULQJ 63 RUVXPPHU 680 SODQWLQJ SURJUDPVDQG% VKRRWJURZWKSRWHQWLDO LHDPHDVXUHRIWRWDO VHHGOLQJVKRRWJURZWKRYHUDSUHGHWHUPLQHGWLPHHLJKWZHHNV XQGHURSWLPXPHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQV LQUHODWLRQWRWKH RULJLQDOVKRRWKHLJKWIRUWKHVSULQJSODQWLQJSURJUDP *URVVQLFNOH XQSXEOLVKHGGDWD 'DVKHGOLQHVUHSUHVHQWDFFHSWHG%&0R) WDUJHWV 6FDJHOHWDO 



&RPSHWLWLRQIRUOLJKWEHWZHHQSODQWHGVHHGOLQJVDQG WKHVLWHYHJHWDWLRQFRPSOH[LVRQHRIWKHPDLQOLPLWLQJ HQYLURQPHQWDOIDFWRUVWKDWDIIHFWWKHSHUIRUPDQFH RIVHHGOLQJVLQWKHWUDQVLWLRQDOSKDVHRISODQWDWLRQ GHYHORSPHQW *URVVQLFNOH -RELGRQDQGFRZRUNHUV  IRXQGWKDWVKRRWV\VWHPVRIODUJHUVWRFN KDGDJUHDWHUH[SRVXUHWRWKHJURZLQJVHDVRQDYDLODEOH OLJKWZKLFKUHVXOWHGLQJUHDWHUVKRRWJURZWK7KHGHJUHH RIWKLVEHQH¿WRIDYDLODEOHOLJKWZDVGLUHFWO\UHODWHGWRWKH OHYHORIFRPSHWLWLRQDQGVLOYLFXOWXUDOSUDFWLFHV6RZKDWLV KDSSHQLQJWRWKHVHVHHGOLQJVIURPDQHFRSK\VLRORJLFDO SHUVSHFWLYH"2QVLWHVZLWKORZOHYHOVRIFRPSHWLWLRQ VHHGOLQJVRIDOOVL]HVUHFHLYHGHQRXJKOLJKWWRHQVXUHD KLJKOHYHORISKRWRV\QWKHWLFFDSDELOLW\ )LJ$ +RZHYHU RQVLWHVZLWKKLJKOHYHOVRIFRPSHWLWLRQODUJHUVHHGOLQJV KDGDFFHVVWRJUHDWHUOHYHOVRILQFRPLQJOLJKWDQGWKXV

)25(675(6($5&+,1)250$7,213$3(5

HWDO 7KHXVHRIODUJHUVHHGOLQJVPD\EHDJRRG VLOYLFXOWXUDOVWUDWHJ\LIYHJHWDWLRQFRPSHWLWLRQLVDPDMRU IDFWRUOLPLWLQJSODQWDWLRQHVWDEOLVKPHQW 7KLIIDXOW 

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ÀRZVIURPWKHVRLOWRSODQWURRWVWKURXJKWKHSODQWDQG LQWRWKHDWPRVSKHUH6WUHVVRFFXUVZKHQDQHZO\SODQWHG VHHGOLQJ¶VURRWV\VWHPFDQQRWVXSSO\HQRXJKZDWHUWR WUDQVSLULQJQHHGOHVWRPDLQWDLQDSURSHUZDWHUEDODQFHDQG HQVXUHVXUYLYDO *URVVQLFNOH 

)LJXUH6SUXFHVHHGOLQJVK\SRWKHWLFDOSKRWRV\QWKHWLFUHVSRQVH SDWWHUQWRDUDQJHRIUHIRUHVWDWLRQVLWHOLJKWFRQGLWLRQV7KH SKRWRV\QWKHWLFSDWWHUQLVIRUVSUXFHVHHGOLQJVPHDVXUHGRQ D¿HOGVLWHXQGHURSWLPDOVRLOZDWHUFRQGLWLRQV *URVVQLFNOH XQSXEOLVKHGGDWD 7KHOLJKWOHYHOVDUHGH¿QHGDVWKHPHDQ TXDQWLW\RIOLJKWUHDFKLQJWKHPLGXSSHUFURZQRIIRXUVSUXFH VHHGOLQJVWRFNVL]HV 6WRFNKHLJKW FP DWSODQWLQJFF  FF FF FF   GXULQJWKH¿IWKJURZLQJVHDVRQDIWHUEHLQJSODQWHG RQUHIRUHVWDWLRQVLWHV DGDSWHGIURP-RELGRQHWDO )LJXUH $UHSUHVHQWVOLJKWOHYHOVLQUHODWLRQWRWKHLUVKRRWV\VWHPVL]H RQDUHIRUHVWDWLRQVLWHZLWKDORZOHYHORIFRPSHWLWLRQ)LJXUH %UHSUHVHQWVOLJKWOHYHOVLQUHODWLRQWRWKHLUVKRRWV\VWHPVL]H RQDUHIRUHVWDWLRQVLWHZLWKDKLJKOHYHORIFRPSHWLWLRQZLWKQR YHJHWDWLRQUHOHDVHWUHDWPHQW VROLGDUURZV DQGWZR\HDUVDIWHUD YHJHWDWLRQUHOHDVHWUHDWPHQW GDVKHGDUURZV 



8QGHUGU\VRLOFRQGLWLRQVODUJHUFRQLIHUVHHGOLQJVDUH UHSRUWHGWRKDYHJUHDWHUZDWHUVWUHVV 5RVHHWDO 6WHZDUWDQG%HUQLHU RUUHGXFHGJURZWK %DHUHW DO+DKQDQG6PLWK WKDQVPDOOHUVHHGOLQJV 8QGHUGU\FRQGLWLRQVEODFNVSUXFHVHHGOLQJVZLWKYHU\ ODUJHVKRRWV\VWHPV LHVL[WLPHVWKHIROLDUPDVVRI VPDOOVHHGOLQJV KDGJUHDWHUZDWHUVWUHVVDQGUHGXFHG SKRWRV\QWKHVLVFRPSDUHGWRVHHGOLQJVZLWKVPDOOHUVKRRW V\VWHPV /DPKDPHGLHWDO $VWKHVHHGOLQJVKRRW V\VWHPUHDFKHVDFHUWDLQVL]HWKHLQFUHDVHGIROLDUPDVV FDQLQFUHDVHWKHVHHGOLQJ¶VVXVFHSWLELOLW\WRZDWHUVWUHVV 7KLVFDQEHDSUREOHPLQQHZO\SODQWHGVHHGOLQJVWKDW KDYHUHVWULFWHGURRWGHYHORSPHQW7KHVXVFHSWLELOLW\RI ODUJHUVHHGOLQJVWREHH[SRVHGWRZDWHUVWUHVVDWSODQWLQJLV PLWLJDWHGLIVHHGOLQJVKDYHWKHFDSDELOLW\WRTXLFNO\GHYHORS QHZURRWV/DUJHFRQWDLQHUJURZQ(QJHOPDQQVSUXFH VHHGOLQJVKDGLQFUHDVHG¿UVW\HDUVXUYLYDOFRPSDUHGWR VPDOOHUVHHGOLQJV +LQHVDQG/RQJ RQVLWHVWKDWGU\ RXWDVWKHJURZLQJVHDVRQSURJUHVVHV+LQHVDQG/RQJ  IRXQGWKDWLQFUHDVHGVXUYLYDOLQODUJHUVHHGOLQJV ZDVUHODWHGWRJUHDWHUURRWJURZWKRYHUWKHLQLWLDOIRXU ZHHNSHULRGDIWHUSODQWLQJZKLFKUHGXFHGVHHGOLQJZDWHU VWUHVV,QPRVWLQVWDQFHVVSUXFHVHHGOLQJVVKRZDJHQHUDO WUHQGRIJUHDWHUQHZURRWJURZWKZLWKDJUHDWHURULJLQDO

)25(675(6($5&+,1)250$7,213$3(5

URRWV\VWHPVL]H )LJ% 7KLVDOORZVODUJHUVHHGOLQJV WRJHQHUDWHHQRXJKURRWVZKLFKVXSSO\HQRXJKZDWHUWR WUDQVSLULQJQHHGOHVWKHUHE\PDLQWDLQLQJDSURSHUZDWHU EDODQFHDQGDYRLGSODQWLQJVWUHVVFRQGLWLRQV+RZHYHU LQFUHDVHGURRWJURZWKGRHVQRWDOZD\VRFFXULQODUJHU VHHGOLQJVKDYLQJELJJHUURRWV\VWHPVDQGWKLVYDULDELOLW\ FDQEHUHODWHGWRVWRFNW\SHQXUVHU\FXOWXUDOSUDFWLFHVDQG JHQHWLFVRXUFH *URVVQLFNOH ,QDGGLWLRQUHVWULFWHG URRWGHYHORSPHQWRIQHZO\SODQWHGVHHGOLQJVFDQEHOLPLWHG E\¿HOGVLWHHGDSKLF LHORZZDWHUDQGWHPSHUDWXUH  FRQGLWLRQV *URVVQLFNOH &DXWLRQVKRXOGEH XVHGZKHQFRQVLGHULQJZKHWKHUWRSODQWODUJHVWRFNRQ SRWHQWLDOO\GU\VLWHVWKDWFDQOLPLWLQLWLDOURRWJURZWKDQG VXEVHTXHQWVHHGOLQJHVWDEOLVKPHQW

&RQFOXVLRQV :KDWLVWKHDQVZHUWRWKHTXHVWLRQ³+RZELJLVELJ HQRXJK"´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

&KDYDVVH&*57KHVLJQL¿FDQFHRISODQWLQJKHLJKW DVDQLQGLFDWRURIVXEVHTXHQWVHHGOLQJJURZWK1=- )RU 'REEV5&(IIHFWRILQLWLDOPDVVRIZKLWHVSUXFH DQGORGJHSROHSLQHSODQWLQJVWRFNRQ¿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¿HOGSODQWLQJ&DQ-)RU5HV +DKQ3)DQG6PLWK$-'RXJODV¿USODQWLQJVWRFN SHUIRUPDQFH&RPSDULVRQDIWHUWKHWKLUGJURZLQJVHDVRQ 7UHH3ODQWHUV¶1RWHV± +LQHV)'DQG/RQJ-1)LUVWDQGVHFRQG\HDUVXUYLYDO RIFRQWDLQHUL]HG(QJHOPDQQVSUXFHLQUHODWLRQWRLQLWLDO VHHGOLQJVL]H&DQ-)RU5HV± -RELGRQ5&KDUHWWH/DQG%HUQLHU3