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Seismic Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment at Ward Level A Case Study of Ward No. 20, Lalitpur Sub - Metropolitan City, Nepal
Ganesh Kumar Jimee March, 2006
Seismic Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment at Ward Level A Case Study of Ward No. 20, Lalitpur Sub - Metropolitan City, Nepal
By
Ganesh Kumar Jimee
Thesis submitted to the International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Geo-information Science and Earth Observation, Specialisation: Natural Hazard Studies
Supervisors: Dr. C. J van Westen (First Supervisor) Dr. M.K. Mc Call (Second Supervisor)
Thesis Assessment Board Prof. Dr. F.D. van der Meer (Chair) Prof. Dr. V. Jetten (External) Dr. C. J van Westen (First Supervisor) Ms. Veronica Botero (Member) Observer: Dr. P.M. van Dijk (Programme Director)
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION ENSCHEDE, THE NETHERLANDS
Disclaimer This document describes work undertaken as part of a programme of study at the International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation. All views and opinions expressed therein remain the sole responsibility of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of the institute. Data used in the thesis will not be used for publishing without written permission of the thesis supervisor.
Abstract This study is an effort to develop a method which can be adopted by municipal authorities in order to assess the vulnerability and level of capacity of local people. It included estimating the building collapse probability and casualties for certain earthquake scenarios, and measuring the capacity of local people to cope with earthquake risk in ward 20 of Lalitpur Sub-Metropolitan City, Nepal. The socio-economic information was collected through a household survey for a sample of 5% of the total 3,329 building floors. Population density was calculated for the sampled building floors according to space uses for different time periods of the day, and based on these sample calculations the population for each building and of the entire ward was estimated. Individual buildings were separated in the footprint map by visual observation and relevant attributes were recorded for the all buildings in the ward. Building damage and collapse probability were estimated for individual buildings considering their conditions in addition to building height, construction types and earthquake intensity using an existing damage matrix prepared by JICA and NSET. The estimations were made for different possible earthquake scenarios defined by previous researches. In the worst case scenario, due to an intensity IX earthquake, 26% of the total of 988 buildings were estimated with high probability (>0.5) of collapse. In intensity VIII and VII earthquakes most of the buildings were estimated with medium (0.2-0.5) and low (0.5 probability) of collapsing and more than 26 percent (257) buildings have high probability of being damaged. No buildings are found with low probability of being damaged in the area. Most of the buildings with high probability of collapse are from northeast part of the study area (See Figure: 4-3). Buildings in this area are found relatively higher, old and have poor existing conditions (building with visible wall cracks and no structural bands etc.).
Buildings with high probability of collapse
Figure 4-3: Building collapse/damage probabilities in intensity IX earthquake 42
SEISMIC VULNERABILITY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT AT WARD LEVEL: A CASE STUDY OF WARD 20, LALITPUR SUB- METROPOLITAN CITY, NEPAL
If the area experiences an intensity VIII produced by the Mid Nepal earthquake, more buildings (73 %) have a low probability (0.5) of damage and collapse. In intensity VIII and VII earthquakes most of the buildings were estimated with medium (0.2-0.5) and low ( 0 5 "
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SEISMIC VULNERABILITY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT AT WARD LEVEL: A CASE STUDY OF WARD 20, LALITPUR SUB- METROPOLITAN CITY, NEPAL
Annex 1-3: Household survey form for residential and non residential buildings " / &/
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