SIPRI Yearbook 2005: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security ...
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) was created by the
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SIPRI SIPRI Yearbook 2005: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005, 853pp.) The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) was created by the Swedish Parliament in 1966 to commemorate Sweden’s ability to stay out of wars for 150 years. But it was not until 1973 and the run up to the first review conference on the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in 1975 held in Geneva that I started to be active on arms control issues. I began receiving the SIPRI Yearbook for review which has kept its red cover for the 35 Yearbooks. As they have gained weight over the years, I place them on the bottom self of a bookcase making for a long red line. On the higher shelves are the thinner SIPRI studies on nuclear weapons, on the possible link between nuclear energy and nuclear weapons and a few on conventional forces from the days that I had tried to follow confidence-building measures between the Warsaw Pact and NATO. I must admit that by 1990 I had tired of repeating that the nuclear-weapon states were not serious about their disarmament obligations under Article VI of the NPT and I shifted most of my efforts to conflict resolution of intra-state conflicts such as those of former Yugoslavia, Sudan and other African conflicts and their wide use of ‘light weapons’. Now, it is thanks to Iran and North Korea – not to mention Iraq, Israel, India and Pakistan – that the possible spread of nuclear weapons forces itself upon our attention again. Currently it is Iran’s policies which are the most dangerous and destabilizing. They could lead to further nuclear proliferation in the region and thus weaken the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. At the same time, Iran finds itself at the crossroads of two unstable areas of Afghanistan-Pakistan-Central Asia and the Middle East. There is a need to develop guaranteed regional security arrangements under UN auspices. Security, not Iranian nuclear weapons is the real need. SIPRI Yearbooks are the best place to catch up on what is going on. The SIPRI Yearbooks are more reference works where one reads about one’s concerns rather than a cover-to-cover approach. The long red line is a silent reminder of one’s peacemaking failures. I had spent the 1980s concerned with the Iraq-Iran war and the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. The Yearbook sets out the yearly failures to find a compromise solution to these conflicts whose shadows still block out the sun. The 2005 Yearbook has a useful chapter by Christer Ahlstrom on “The Proliferation Security Initiative: international law aspects of the Statement of Interdiction Principles” which places non-proliferation efforts within the larger context of international law. Unfortunately the strengthening of international law is not high on the world’s agenda. There is also a good chapter on “Libya’s renunciation of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons and ballistic missiles.” Since there is little visible progress in multilateral disarmament negotiations, it is good to read about unilateral disarmament – and the complex motivations in the Libyan example. Since on-going armed conflicts remain the center of my interests, the Yearbook has a useful section on major armed conflict. The 2004 Yearbook was largely focused on intrastate armed conflict in the contemporary international system. Since most of these conflicts are still going on, the 2004 issue remains of real use.
In the 2005 edition, there is a good chapter by Rosemary Hollis on “The greater Middle East” where “Most states of the region are of relatively recent creation, many borders are still disputed and interstate relations are generally of a brittle, competitive when not outright adversarial character.” The SIPRI Yearbook is a factual analysis of the situation. It will set out briefly govnernment positions , but it recommends no independent positions. Thus the aims of the USA’s Broader Middle East and North African Initiative (BMENA) – “state reform, good governance and modernization as ingredients of democracy; education, freedom of expression and gender equality with an emphasis on reducing illiteracy among girls and women; job creation in the private sector, expanding trade and investment, securing property rights and the promotion of intra-regional trade” – are listed, but there is no analysis of how these aims are to be transformed into programmes. All of us who are working on conflict transformation are indebted to the SIPRI research, data banks, and publications. They provide a factual foundation upon which we can build. However, it is up to us as individuals and as members of organizations to draw up policy proposals and to promote them with the countries and groups directly involved. Facts do not speak for themselves; we need to weave them into strong and clear statements of policy. Rene Wadlow
Drawing : Janek Janowiez
