solar thermal markets in europe - European Solar Thermal Industry ... [PDF]

SOLAR THERMAL MARKETS IN EUROPE Trends and Market Statistics 2015 Published November 2016

Summary 18

18 2009

4

2015 Total installed capacity in operation:

Total installed capacity in 2015:

33.3 GWth

18

1.9 GWth

2009

4 (Estimated) sector turnover

Annual energy generation (estimated): 2009

4

18

1.9 EUR 18billion

23.5 TWhth 4

18 Numbers of jobs (estimated):

23 700

2009

4 Estimated

6.3 Mt CO2 emission savings

2009

4

MARKET SIZE IN TERMS OF SOLAR THERMAL CAPACITY (KWth) AND IN TERMS OF COLLECTOR AREA (M2) Market (=Newly Installed)

2013

2014

Total Glazed

Total Glazed

m2

In Operation2

2015

m2

Flat Plate

Vacuum Collectors m2

Total Glazed

m2

m2

Total Glazed

Annual Evolution of the Market

2015

Annual Evolution of the Total Installed Capacity

Total Glazed

Total Glazed

Total Glazed

kW(th)1

%

m2

kW(th)

%

Austria

179 180

153 440

134 260

2 320

136 580

95 606

-11%

4 201 321

2 940 925

-0.6%

Belgium

59 000

52 000

38 250

6 750

45 000

31 500

-13.5%

538 033

376 623

8.9%

Bulgaria

5 600

5 600

5 100

500

5 600

3 920

-

133 900

93 730

-

Croatia

20 900

21 527

19 000

2 500

21 500

15 050

-0.1%

188 592

132 014

12.9%

Cyprus

20 991

19 467

18 000

600

18 600

13 020

-4.5%

676 834

473 784

-1.7%

Czech Republic Denmark Estonia* Finland* France3 Germany Greece

44 531

38 243

22 000

9 000

31 000

21 700

-18.9%

534 617

374 232

5.4%

117 170

179 186

264 565

0

264 565

185 196

47.6%

1 175 916

823 141

25.5%

2 000

2 000

1 000

1 000

2 000

1 400

-

12 520

8 764

-

4 000

4 000

3 000

1 000

4 000

2 800

-

47 523

33 266

-

190 300

150 500

101 450

0

101 450

71 015

-32.6%

2 516 650

1 761 655

4.2%

1 020 000

900 000

729 000

77 000

806 000

564 200

-10.4%

18 300 000

12 810 000

3.5%

227 500

270 600

271 000

600

271 600

190 120

0.4%

4 388 900

3 072 230

2.4%

Hungary

18 000

16 000

10 080

5 570

15 650

10 955

-2.2%

269 464

188 625

6.2%

Ireland

27 269

24 524

12 720

9 953

22 673

15 871

-7.5%

344 855

241 398

7%

358 000

268 500

201 810

27 520

229 330

160 531

-14.6%

4 174 124

2 921 887

5.3%

2 222

2 360

1 580

330

1 910

1 337

-19.1%

10 532

7 372

22.2%

Italy Latvia* Lithuania*

2 200

2 200

800

1 400

2 200

1 540

-

12 600

8 820

-

Luxemburg*

6 000

5 486

4 700

750

5 450

3 815

-

55 736

39 015

1.5%

Malta*

1 089

1 520

759

172

931

652

-38.8%

53 770

37 639

38 775

31 411

17 548

3 971

21 519

15 063

-31.5%

569 506

398 654

1.6%

274 100

260 100

225 000

52 000

277 000

193 900

6.5%

2 022 590

1 415 813

15.9%

Portugal

57 234

50 967

45 304

830

46 134

32 294

-9.5%

979 952

685 966

3.9%

Romania

23 850

18 500

6 800

11 000

17 800

12 460

-3.8%

158 350

110 845

10.7%

Slovakia

6 200

5 500

4 500

800

5 300

3 710

-3.6%

154 250

107 975

1.2% -9.8%

Netherlands Poland

Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom

EU28 + Switzerland

10 000

4 500

2 200

600

2 800

1 960

-37.8%

159 100

111 370

228 721

251 249

226 138

11 121

237 259

166 081

-5.6%

3 279 894

2 295 926

7.5%

8 611

6 673

4 928

1 643

6 571

4 600

-1.5%

335 565

234 896

-0.8%

121 974

113 147

65 000

15 000

80 000

56 000

-29.3%

1 401 492

981 044

4.3%

43 133

36 552

20 322

3 967

24 289

17 002

-33.5%

792 251

554 576

2.2%

3 118 550

2 895 752

-

-

2 704 711

1 893 298

-6.6%

47 488 836

33 242 185

4.4%

ESTIF would like to thank the solar thermal associations and other national sources for providing the data for these statistics, in particular: AEE INTEC; Association pour Techniques Thermiques de Belgique (ATTB/Belsolar); Energy Institute Hrvoje Pozar; Cyprus Ministry of Energy, Commerce, Industry and Tourism; Czech Ministry of Industry and Trade; Danish Solar Heating Association (DSF); Finish Solar Energy Association / Statistics Finland – Environment and Energy; Syndicat des professionnels de l’énergie solaire (ENERPLAN); Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft (BSW-Solar); Greek Solar Industry Association (EBHE); Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEIA); Assotermica; Latvian Solar Thermal Collector Association; Energy Statistics Division – Statistics Lithuania; Malta Resources Authority; Holland Solar; SPIUG - Association of Heating Appliances Manufacturers and Importers in Poland; Associação Portuguesa da Indústria Solar (APISOLAR) ; Camera de Comerţ şi Industrie Româno-Germană (AHK); THERMO/SOLAR Ziar s.r.o.; University of Ljubljana; Association, Solar De La Industria Termica (ASIT); Svensk Solenergi; Chalmers University of Technology; Swissolar; Solar Trade Association (STA). Figures for countries marked with an * are ESTIF estimations and, therefore, these are not sufficiently accurate to be used for percent change calculations in these markets. 1) The relation between collector area and capacity is 1m² = 0.7kWth (kilowatt-thermal) 2) Capacity “in operation” refers to the solar thermal capacity built in the past and deemed to be still in use. ESTIF assumes a 20 year product life for all systems installed since 1990. Most products today would last considerably longer, but they often cease to be used earlier, e.g. because the building was demolished, or there has been a change of building use. 3) The figures shown here relate to Metropolitan France (mainland). As a reference, in 2010 the overseas departments amounted to 49 MWth (70,000 m²).

SOLAR THERMAL MARKETS IN EUROPE DATA FOR 2015

Finland* 33 MWth 6.1 kWth

Key

> 250 kWth

Shares of the European Solar Thermal Market (Newly Installed Capacity)

50-250 kWth

EU28+ -6.6% 33 242 MWth 64.3 kWth

Country name Annual evolution 2014/2015 Cumulative installed capacity in operation (MWth) kWth per 1000 capita

Others

9 MWth 6.7 kWth

PT

DE

FR

Sweden -1.5% 235 MWth 24.1 kWth

< 15 kWth

BE

CH

15-25 kWth

Latvia -19.1% 7 MWth 3.7 kWth

Denmark 47.6% 823 MWth 145.4 kWth Ireland -7.5% 241 MWth 52.1 kWth

80

Estonia*

25-50 kWth

NREAP Barometer

AT

IT

Lithuania*

PL

ES

9 MWth 3 kWth

30%

PL

10%

Other 17 HU

GR

10%

DK

10%

CY BE

ES

9%

PT

IT

8%

AT

AT

5%

PL

FR

4%

CH

3%

GR FR

PT

2%

BE

2%

IT

UK -33.5% 555 MWth 8.5 kWth

60

50

Poland 6.5% 1 416 MWth 37.3 kWth

Netherlands -31.5% 399 MWth 23.6 kWth Belgium -13.5% 377 MWth 33.5 kWth

Solar Thermal Capacity in Operation (per 1000 Capita) kWth 700

Germany -10.4% 12 810 MWth 157.8 kWth

39 MWth 69.3 kWth

500 400

BE

CZ

PL

IT

ES

IE

SI

EU28+

PT

LU

MT

CH

0

DK

Croatia -0.1% 132 MWth 31.2 kWth

100 DE

Hungary -2.2% 189 MWth 19.1 kWth

200

GR

Slovenia -37.8% 111 MWth 54.0 kWth

Slovakia -3.6% 108 MWth 19.9 kWth

AT

Austria -11% 2 941 MWth 342.9 kWth

300

CY

Switzerland -29.3% 981 MWth 119.1 kWth

600

Czech Republic -18.9% 374 MWth 35.5 kWth

Luxembourg*

France -32.6% 1 762 MWth 26.5 kWth

70

ES DE

OTHERS 8%

GR

DK

DE

m2 1 000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

40

30

2015 2014 20 2010

10

Romania -3.8% 111 MWth 5.6 kWth

Development of Main Markets - Newly Installed Capacity per 1000 Capita

Bulgaria*

Italy -14.6% 2 922 MWth 48.1 kWth

94 MWth 13 kWth

kWth

m2

30

40

25

35 25

15

20

10

15 10

5

Portugal -9.5% 686 MWth 66.1 kWth

0

0

30

20

5 2005 Austria

2006

2007

Germany

2008

2009

Greece

2010 Italy

2011 Poland

2012

2013

Spain

2014 France

2015

0

EU28+

Estimated energy produced in 2015 in comparison with EU 2020 targets for annual solar thermal energy generation in TWh.

Greece 0.4% 3 072 MWth 282.9 kWth

Spain -5.6% 2 296 MWth 49.4 kWth

Malta -38.8% 38 MWth 87.7 kWth

Cyprus -4.5% 474 MWth 559.4 kWth

Note: The data are usually provided by national solar thermal associations or other national sources. Countries marked with an * are ESTIF estimations and are therefore not sufficiently accurate to set a percentage variation in the market.

SOLAR THERMAL MARKETS IN EU 28 AND SWITZERLAND (GLAZED COLLECTORS) In 2015, the European market faced again a contraction of the newly installed capacity, which totalled 1.9 GWth (approximately 2.7 million m²). This represents a decrease of 6.6% in comparison with 2014. The total installed capacity augmented by 1.4 GWth, attaining 33.3 GWth (47.5 mio m²). It represents an increase of 4.4% on the total installed capacity by the end of the previous year. The last ten years were characterised by steep growth until 2008, followed since by a contraction. Still, the average growth over this 10 year period was 2.8%. Nevertheless, the annual decrease in sales was, since 2009, 7.9% on average.

Solar Thermal Market in EU28 and Switzerland (glazed collectors) kWth

m2 5 000 000

3 500 000 3 000 000

The main European market, Germany, representing approximately 30% of the entire European market, as led this decrease with a reduction of 10.4% compared to 2014, totalling 564.2 MWth (0.8 mio m²) of newly installed area. France sustained the strongest decrease from the larger markets (-32.6%).

4 000 000

2 500 000 3 000 000

2 000 000 1 500 000

2 000 000

1 000 000

1 000 000

500 0 00 2005

The performance since 2008, after the implementation of the Renewables Directive, jeopardises the achievement of the indicative targets for 2020 indicated in the National Renewable Energy Actions Plans. However, solar heating and cooling still plays an important role in the European energy strategy, allowing for decentralised solutions to meet the heating and cooling demand in Europe, replacing the dependency on imported fossil fuels and creating local jobs. The 33.3 GWth in operation generate an estimated 23.5 TWhth of solar thermal energy while contributing to a saving of 6.3 Mt CO2 . In terms of economic significance, the solar thermal sector reached a combined turnover of 1.9 billion Euros in 2015, employing approximately 23 700 people.

2006

Germany

Denmark, with an increase of 47.6% in the market is the best performing country. As a result of the continuation of the solar district heating success story in this country, the newly installed capacity in 2015 grew to an astonishing total of 185 MWth (0.26 mio m²). The total installed capacity has risen by 25%, to an amount of 823 MWth (approximately 1.2 mio m²).

0 2015

0 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Next top 6 countries (AT, ES, FR, GR, IT, PL)

2013

2014

Other 21 EU countries and Switzerland

Solar Thermal Market in EU28 and Switzerland Total and Newly Installed Capacity (glazed collectors) MWth

m2 (x1000)

35 000

5 000 4 500

30 000

4 000

25 000

3 500 3 000

20 000

2 500

15 000

2 000 1 500

10 000

1 000 5 000 0

500 0 2006

2007

2008

2009

Newly installed (MWth)

2010

2011

2012

2013

Total installed n-1 (MWth)

2014

2015

Annual Capacity (m2)

NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY ACTION PLANS (NREAPS)

EU28 Sector’s shares on total generation (inner ring) & RES shares for each sector

According to the European Commission assessment of the implementation of the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs), the projected development of the solar thermal market until 2020, considering the measures proposed by the Member States, would be 41.8 to 45.6% below the indicative target. This underachievement is evident even for countries such as Italy, Spain and France, which have a great potential for the deployment of solar thermal, if the right measures are in place. The discussion around energy and renewable energy sources (RES) has been mainly focused on renewable electricity (RES-E). Pushed by strong support policies, RES-E has risen to 27.4% of all power generation in EU28, while RES-HC represents only 17.7% of all Heating & Cooling. Nevertheless, renewable heating and cooling (RES-HC) represents 49% (1017 TWh) of all RES generation in EU28, while RES-E represents only 42% (872 TWh). With four years left to achieve the 2020 targets, RES-HC still offer a huge untapped potential, that can be quickly deployed. Solar thermal applications, such as solar water heaters or solar heat for industrial processes, have demonstrated their competitiveness. At the same time, investment in solar thermal solutions helps to promote energy security, reducing energy imports and CO2 emissions while promoting local job creation.

(outer) for 2014

Estimated solar heat generation per country in comparison with national targets for annual heat generation using solar thermal systems by 2020, expressed in GWh.

25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0

IT

DE

2015: ESTIF data

ES

FR

GR

PL

2020: NREAPs targets

AT

PT

BE

CY

Other 18

SOLAR DISTRICT HEATING (SDH)

SOLAR HEAT FOR INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES (SHIP)

The market for large-scale solar heating systems above 700 kWth of nominal thermal power (1 000 m²) has been increasing, led by one country: Denmark. The main reason is a very positive development of solar district heating systems in Denmark, totalling over 75 systems and 0.57 GWth of installed capacity by the end of 2015. Though other countries are learning from the Danish experience and recently new installations came into operation in Austria, Germany, Italy and France. Since 2008 the average size of the new systems has increased from 2.3 MWth to over 6.5 MWth. The 19 new large solar district systems that came into operation in 2015 represented over 120 MWth of newly installed capacity.

Solar Heat for Industrial Processes (SHIP) is a promising market for largescale solar thermal applications. Currently over 190 operating solar thermal systems for process heat are reported worldwide, with a total capacity of over 111 MWth (159 000 m²). The graph below shows the importance of large scale solar thermal applications. The largest 20 plants have in total 106 418 m² which is over 70% of the total installed gross area. In total, over 60 % of the gross area was installed since 2011. The average plant size (of plants > 100 m²) has increased in the last years. Between 2000 and 2007 the average plant size was 585 m² gross area. Since then, this value has risen fourfold. Scale of SHIP plants 60 000 89 plants with 8 517m2

50

50 000 20 plants with 106 418m2

40

40 000

30

30 000

20

20 000

10

10 000

0

Sum of gross area per category

More information about solar district heating systems is provided by the project SDH, supported by EC (IEE) on the website: www.solar-district-heating.eu.

10 000 - 40 000

2000 - 5000

5000 - 10 000

900 - 1000

1000 - 2000

800 - 900

700 - 800

600 - 700

500 - 600

400 - 500

300 - 400

200 - 300

100 - 200

0 - 100

0

Number of plants per category

More information about solar heat for industrial processes, namely data on existing systems is provided on the website http://ship-plants.info as a result of the work carried out in the framework of the IEA Task 49/IV (http://task49.iea-shc.org).

Interested in reading the full report? Our full report will be published soon! If you are interested in reading it, visit our website (www.estif.org/publications/) and get the last updates or send us an email at [email protected].

Gross area (m2)

Number of plants (-)

60