Splintering Urban Populations: Emergent ... - SAGE Journals

Urban Studies, Vol. 44, No. 4, 651– 677, April 2007

Splintering Urban Populations: Emergent Landscapes of Reurbanisation in Four European Cities Stefan Buzar, Philip Ogden, Ray Hall, Annegret Haase, Sigrun Kabisch and Annett Steinfu¨hrer [Paper first received, August 2005; in final form, June 2006]

Summary. During the last three decades, the countries of the developed world have been engulfed by the ‘second demographic transition’, which involves new family relations, less and later marriage, declining fertility rates, population ageing, postponement of child-bearing and smaller households, among other trends. It is being increasingly argued that such population dynamics are having a powerful transformative effect on the inner city, by diversifying and redensifying its social landscapes, and creating a ‘splintered’ urban form. Based on the findings of a recent EU Framework 5 research project, this paper investigates the demographic contingencies of this process—also known as reurbanisation—in four European cities: Leipzig (Germany), Ljubljana (Slovenia), Bologna (Italy) and Leoń (Spain). Analyses of census and municipal registry data, as well as on-site questionnaire surveys and interviews, have revealed that the reviewed cities are being populated with, and fragmented by, multiple migration trends and new household structures connected to the second demographic transition.

Introduction Although many European and North American inner-city areas were subject to counterurbanisation and capital flight during the postwar decades, the concurrent ‘voices of decline’ (Beauregard, 2003) have been on the wane in the more recent period. Instead, a mounting, although not undisputed, body of evidence suggests that “we might expect post-industrial cities to reurbanise”, because “as cities approach the end of the millennium, the oldest and earliest developed of them seem likely to redensify” (Lever, 1993, p. 282). It

has even been argued that reurbanisation represents the most recent of four phases of urban transformation observed in Europe during the past two centuries, following processes of urbanisation, suburbanisation and desurbanisation (see van den Berg et al., 1982). Even though the empirical extent and theoretical significance of this ‘urban renaissance’ have been challenged by a variety of authors from different disciplines (for a review, see Williams, 2004), comparatively little attention

Stefan Buzar is in the School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK. Fax: 0121 414 5528. E-mail: [email protected]. Stefan Buzar is also with the Department of Economic Geography, University of Gdansk, J.Piłsudskiego 46, 81-378 Gdynia, Poland. Philip Ogden and Ray Hall are in the Department of Geography, Queen Mary, University of London, Mile End Road, London, E1 4NS, UK. Fax: þ44 20 8981 6276. E-mails: [email protected] and [email protected]. Annegret Haase, Sigrun Kabisch and Annett Steinfu¨hrer are in the UFZ Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Urban and Environmental Sociology, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany. Fax: þ49 341 235 2825. E-mails: [email protected], [email protected] and [email protected]. The authors wish to thank Tony Champion and Petros Petsimeris for their suggestions on previous papers, which were taken into account when developing the conceptual framework of this article. They are also grateful to Annett Fritzsche for compiling some of the statistical data for Leipzig. 0042-0980 Print=1360-063X Online=07=040651 –27 # 2007 The Editors of Urban Studies DOI: 10.1080=00420980601185544

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has been paid to its relationship with the broader array of urban resurgence-related phenomena in inner-city areas. Reurbanisation is undertheorised in the mainstream urban studies literature and it is still unclear how this process relates to the parallel, and much better-known, dynamic of gentrification. The demographic contingencies of reurbanisation also need to be investigated in further detail. In line with a growing body of evidence from across the developed world (for instance, see Atkinson and Bridge, 2005; Butler, 1997; Seo, 2002; Jobse and Musterd, 1993), Fishman has noted for America that shrinking household size will encourage the revival of central cities, as nontraditional households seek the flexibility, convenience, and diversity that cities provide (Fishman, 2000, p. 212). However, the broader urban effects of related population trends—often summarised under the heading of the ‘second demographic transition’ (for instance, see Lesthaeghe, 1995)— have been researched relatively little to date. A further challenge is posed by the need to understand recent processes in lower-ranking cities within developed and developing countries alike. To date, the vast majority of work in this field has dealt with a limited number of key agglomerations in the UK and North America, even though developments in smaller cities, or different geographical contexts, may provide key insights into deeper social trends. To a certain degree, this mirrors the challenges faced by the gentrification literature, which has also struggled with the changing meaning of the term ‘gentrification’ and its relationship with urban transformations beyond ‘flagship’ cities in the Anglo-American realm (Slater et al., 2004; Atkinson and Bridge, 2005). This paper examines the demographic contingencies of reurbanisation in four European cities—Leipzig (Germany), Ljubljana (Slovenia), Bologna (Italy) and Leoń (Spain), see Figure 1—by analysing migration flows and population balances, as well as the patterns of several specific groups, such as one-person households, families with young

children and groups of unrelated adults sharing a flat. Our analyses rest on the findings of a recently completed collaborative research project, funded by the EU’s Fifth Framework Programme. This international initiative, entitled “Mobilising reurbanisation under conditions of demographic change”1 investigated the socio-demographic, architectural, economic and legal aspects of reurbanisation in the relevant cities, within the context of the common population trends experienced by their host countries: falling fertility and marriage rates, counterurbanisation and the increased fragmentation of families and lifestyles. The paper is thus situated at the conceptual intersection of household demography, urban sociology and population geography. The notion of ‘splintering urbanism’, through which Graham and Marvin (2001) have encapsulated “the sociotechnical partitioning of the metropolitan and, indeed, societal fabric” (p. 383), has provided a powerful metaphor for capturing the fragmented spatial and social patterns of the second demographic transition.

Research Questions Based on the relevant literature (especially Lever, 1993; Fishman, 2000; Watters, 2004; van den Berg et al., 1982; Bessy-Pie´tri, 2000), as well as a series of broader scientific and policy discussions, we understand reurbanisation as a process of populating and diversifying the inner city with a variety of residential strata. One of the key issues in this respect is the growing influence of ‘new’ household demographies (Kuijsten, 1996; Bongaarts, 2002; van da Kaa, 2001; Ogden and Hall, 2000, 2004) which can lead to increased household numbers in the inner city, even when the total population is decreasing. Therefore, the overarching aim of this paper is to determine whether, how and to what extent the study cities have been ‘reurbanised’ as a result of recent demographic transformations. Addressing this pivotal question necessitates a closer look at a number of interlinked issues, including

SPLINTERING URBAN POPULATIONS

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Figure 1. Locations of the four study cities and the eight study areas within them (district names correspond to nearest number: 1 ¼ Altlindenau; 2 ¼ Neustadt-Neuscho¨nefeld; 3 ¼ Ljubljana city centre, North; 4 ¼ Ljubljana city centre, South; 5 ¼ Bolognina; 6 ¼ San Donato; 7 ¼ El Casco Antiguo; 8 ¼ El Ejido).

(1) the broad-level relationship between reurbanisation and the second demographic transition: how has the changing nature of household and family relations influenced recent settlement patterns in the inner city? (2) the structure of migration balances: what is the origin/destination of in-migrants /outmigrants from/to the four cities and how big a part does international migration play in these dynamics? (3) the stage of the reurbanisation process: based on the answers to the previous two questions, what can we say about where the four cities have come from, and where they are going, in terms of the demographic transformation of the inner city? The following two sub-sections outline the locations and methods of this study, after

which we review the conceptual and theoretical issues raised by the emergent demographies of reurbanisation. This is supplemented by a comparative examination of the socioeconomic specificities of the four study countries, in order to provide the background context for city-level analyses. Then follows a more detailed investigation of the spatial distribution of: one-person households; families with young children; and non-related flat-sharing adults within the four cities,2 in relation to the first research question outlined above. The subsequent part of the paper assesses the relationships between reurbanisation and the demographic composition of the case study cities, in terms of the structure and direction of recent urban population flows (which corresponds to the second question). The concluding discussion outlines the positions of the four cities vis-a`-vis the reurbanisation

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process—in response to the third question— while emphasising the comprehensive and multidirectional character of its constituent dynamics. Research Locations As noted earlier, this paper stems from a recent EU-sponsored research project that brought together four city governments and seven research institutions from across the continent, with the aim of examining the current state and future potential for reurbanisation in the inner cities of Leipzig, Ljubljana, Bologna and Leoń. Aside from local institutional prerequisites, the inclusion of these cities in the project was mainly guided by the course and content of previous population trends in the relevant countries. Germany, Slovenia, Italy and Spain alike are in the advanced stage of the ‘second demographic transition’ (see Kuijsten, 1996; Reher, 1997; Wiessner, 1999; Birg, 2001), as evidenced by recent rapid declines in fertility and marriage rates, the postponement of child-bearing and rising divorce rates and household numbers (CoE, 2002, 2003). At the same time, they are undergoing interrelated processes of economic and welfare restructuring, albeit for different reasons, as (the former Eastern) Germany and Slovenia are well into the post-socialist transformation, while Italy and Spain are moving towards post-industrial service economies (Gans and Kemper, 2002; Castells, 1993) and ‘workfare’ states (Peck, 2001). In all four countries, the ageing of urban populations has been exacerbated by the emergence of counterurbanisation and suburbanisation trends during the past few decades (see Champion, 1998, 2001; Herfert, 1997; Nuissl and Rink, 2005). Many of these processes are still underway, despite numerous policy efforts to ‘bring back’ capital and population to the inner urban fabric. Studying the ramifications of such dynamics within the four study cities has been facilitated by the fact that they all possess a medieval urban core surrounded by dense late-19th or early20th century tenement blocks, originally built to house their expanding working- and

middle-class populations.3 Such areas have been facing rapid population losses, as well as declining property values and rents during the past few decades. Therefore, the sociodemographic analyses within this paper have been organised along three spatial scales, including: the four study cities themselves; large intraurban spatial units, such as the city centre or the inner city, as delimited by locally established historical, spatial and/or planning boundaries; and eight smaller urban districts, selected to represent the respective parts of the city centre or inner city. However, there was no formal ordering of spatial scales within the analysis, as different territorial units received different amounts of attention in different cities, depending on the broader relevance of processes observed there. For example, most of our work in Leipzig was focused on the inner-city districts of Altlindenau and Neustadt-Neuscho¨nefeld, whose total residential populations are 12 200 and 9300 respectively. Only in a few cases was the scope of analysis extended to the city centre of Leipzig, or the wider inner-city belt (see Figure 1). This is because Altlindenau and Neustadt-Neuscho¨nefeld are broadly representative of the respective western and eastern parts of inner-city Leipzig, whose characteristic building structure consists of a dense mix of tenement blocks and industryrelated buildings. These structures were built with the specific aim of housing and employing in-migrant workers during the Gru¨nderzeit era at the end of the 19th century, when Germany underwent rapid economic growth (Kabisch et al., 1997). However, both districts suffered from neglect, underinvestment and depopulation during socialism. Population losses were intensified after 1990, pushing the housing vacancy rate above the 30 per cent mark (Kabisch et al., 1997; Kabisch, 2002; Hannemann et al., 2002; Haase et al., 2005a). The project also focused on the inner city of Bologna, where field research was undertaken in two large residential districts north of the urban core. Bolognina (9300 residents) and San Donato (8200 residents) were almost entirely purpose-built for urban workers and


immigrants at the end of the 19th century, just like the study districts in Leipzig. Nevertheless, in some cases the scope of analysis also included the adjacent historical city centre of Bologna and the wider inner-city region (Figure 1). In the remaining two cities, the focus was mainly on areas within the urban cores themselves. Considering that Ljubljana’s historical centre encompasses a relatively large and heterogeneous area, most analyses were ‘zoomed’ onto two densely built residential districts in its northern (total population 2900 inhabitants) and southern (total population 3700) parts, which contain respectively, a housing ensemble from the ‘secessionist’ period of the late 19th century and the mixed-use urban core of the medieval old town. However, some analyses pertain to the broader city centre and surrounding innercity zones, as shown in Figure 1. Similarly, the Leoń case study districts—El Casco Antiguo (5400 residents) and El Ejido (5200 residents)—refer to respectively, a multilayered residential area in the medieval core of the city and an historical inner-city quarter with terraced houses and tenement blocks from (mainly) the second half of the 20th century. Still, as in the other three cities, some of the analyses refer to wider spatial units, such as Leoń’s city centre and innercity region (see Figure 1). Data Collection Methods The gathering of empirical evidence was streamlined into two parallel components. The first of these dealt with the spatial relationships between the demographic and urban structures of the four study cities, in light of wider social and demographic transformations. As a result, it was necessary to compile several layers of civil registry and census data from the four cities. We also relied on qualitative information gathered during interviews with local decision-makers and residents, carried out between December 2003 and May 2004. The second part of the research comprised a questionnaire survey in the eight inner-city

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quarters outlined above, involving a total of 706 households in Leipzig (where the cumulative response rate reached 72 per cent); 593 in Ljubljana (response rate of 81 per cent); 469 in Bologna (response rate of 79 per cent); and 467 in Leoń (with a total response rate of 72 per cent). The surveys were carried out in the second half of 2003 and early 2004. The high response rate was achieved with the aid of a wide range of preparatory methods, including: intensive publicity through the local media, a variety of neighbourhood announcements prior to the distribution of questionnaires, as well as the use of specially trained interviewers, who delivered the questionnaires to every individual household and collected them after a few days (see Kabisch, 2005; Haase et al., 2005a, for more information). The survey was carried out with the intention of getting data on households at a very local scale, which are not available in any national and municipal statistics. Within the case study areas, we targeted the questionnaires towards specifically chosen spatial clusters, whose residential structure was deemed to be proportionally representative of the entire housing stock in the district. We then contacted all households in the respective areas, as the intention was to cover the total population rather than a sample. The final selection of the interviewee at the level of the household was undertaken through a strict random selection criterion—the last-birthday method (see Binson et al., 2000).

Landscapes of Reurbanisation: The Neglected Link between Households and Cities ‘Reurbanising’ the Gentrification Debate The detection of reurbanisation-related developments in post-industrial cities has destabilised Glass’ (1964) initial class-based definition of gentrification, due to the conceptual proximity between the two types of process. Adding a further layer of confusion to the issue is the more recent coining of an entirely new set of similar terms, such as

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‘urban rebirth’, the ‘resurgent city’, ‘urban renaissance’, ‘urban sustainability’ and ‘regeneration’ (for a further discussion see Lees, 2004). The boundaries between these concepts have been complicated mainly because social benchmarks continue to move so that local area changes like gentrification are increasingly difficult to calibrate and discern among much wider economic, social and political transformation (Atkinson, 2003, p. 2343). Smith has insisted that gentrification is no longer about a narrow and quixotic oddity in the housing market but has become the leading residential edge of a much larger endeavour: the class remake of the central urban landscape (Smith, 1996, p. 39). However, Lambert and Boddy would question whether the sort of new housing development and conversion described in Bristol and other second tier UK cities, or indeed the development of London’s Docklands can, in fact, still be characterised as ‘gentrification’—post-recession or otherwise, [because] to describe these processes as gentrification is stretching the term and what it set out to describe too far (Lambert and Boddy, 2002, p. 22). Nevertheless, definitional issues aside, the gentrification literature has made a major empirical contribution to the broader understanding of reurbanisation-related phenomena. The vigorous evolution of gentrification debates has opened the path for considering alternative interpretations of the social underpinnings of in-migration to the inner city. It is possible that this analytical exchange will also work in the reverse direction, as the causes and consequences of reurbanisation can shed new light on the age-old impasse between supply and demand theories of gentrification (for instance, see Hamnett, 1991; Smith, 1996; Ley, 1986, 1996). According to some authors, this logjam has created unnecessary tensions and dead-ends, which have hampered

the development of timely theoretical responses to new developments on the ground (see Lees, 1994, 2000; Bondi, 1999; Slater, 2002). This is despite the fact that the past decade has seen several important strands of work on, among other issues, the urban socio-spatial agency of the gentrifying classes (Hamnett, 2003; Butler, 1997; Butler and Robson, 2001a, 2001b, 2003; Podmore, 1998), the dynamics of impoverishment and displacement generated by gentrification (van Weesep and van Kempen, 1994; Legates and Hartman, 1986; Lyons, 1996; Atkinson, 2000a, 2000b), the inner city as an emancipatory social space (Caulfield, 1994), cultural strategies and new modes of urban intervention (Ley, 2003; Griffiths, 1995), as well as the role of domestic technologies in spawning gentrification (Redfern, 1997). One of the main shortfalls of the gentrification literature per se, however, is that it has neglected developments in cities “further down the urban hierarchy” (Slater et al., 2004, p. 1143). Very few empirical studies have ventured beyond a limited range of cities in the North American and British contexts; even continental Europe tends to be excluded from mainstream debates, aside from a small number of cases (see Atkinson and Bridge, 2005). An additional problem is posed by the social-process-oriented nature of hitherto theoretical discussions about inmigration to the inner city. Although there has been a considerable amount of research into the role of housing choices, careers and preferences among different kinds of household groups living in the inner city (Ley, 1996; Champion, 1998; Todorovic and Wellington, 2000; Schoon, 2001; Frey and Kobrin, 1982), the mainstream gentrification and urban geography literatures have paid insufficient attention to the urban spatial effects of changing household, family and mobility patterns. Finally, and perhaps most importantly of all, the position of reurbanisation within the broader processes of urban revitalisation and transformation remains inadequately researched. Even though a number of authors have framed their empirical work within the context of reurbanisation


(Seo, 2002; Lever, 1993; Burton, 2003; Ogden and Hall, 2000; Tanghe et al., 1984), there is a need for further fine-grained investigations of this process, within an analytical framework sensitive to geographical specificities. The Second Demographic Transition and Reurbanisation Reurbanisation can also be approached through the extensive body of knowledge about the changing nature of family and household relations during the last quarter of the 20th century. As we have argued elsewhere (Buzar et al., 2005; Ogden and Hall, 2004), the rise of individualism and the destabilisation of traditional family structures have been accompanied by fundamental transformations of population structures and trends in the developed world. While formal marriage has shifted from an “obligatory entree . . . to the far less enviable position of an optional dessert” (Kuijsten, 1996, p. 141), the traditional nuclear family, consisting of two married heterosexual adults with children, has lost its role as a principal social institution (Kobrin, 1976, p. 137). This dynamic has been accompanied by the postponement of marriage and an increase in the average childbearing age, a decline of fertility, as well as rising cohabitation and divorce rates (Bongaarts, 2002; van da Kaa, 2001). Although such processes first appeared in northern Europe, they have spread rapidly throughout the developed—and even the developing—world, including the rest of Europe, Japan, Australia and North America (Hall, 1986; Lesthaeghe and Moors, 1995; Kucera et al., 2000; Ogden and Hall, 2004). Although the decline of fertility rates is a continuation of earlier processes, it has been argued that, in their entirety, the population changes experienced by the developed world over the last quarter of the 20th century are a new and distinct phenomenon, which can be encapsulated by the term ‘second demographic transition’. Alongside the destabilisation of traditional patterns of marriage, family and divorce, one of the most important consequences of this process has been the decreasing

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size and increasing number of households. Many developed-world cities have experienced a steady rise in the numbers of oneperson households, in spatially concentrated parts of the urban fabric. Living on one’s own has been attributed to the increased individualisation and atomisation of society (Verdon, 1998; Lesthaeghe and Moors, 1995), as well as increased life expectancy, the ‘flexibilisation’ of labour and rising demand for highly skilled professionals in expanding global cities (Hamnett, 1994, 1996, 2003; Ogden and Hall, 2004). The second demographic transition has also increased the frequency of household transitions, because individuals now move through a more complex array of social relations and networks through their lifecourse (Gober, 1990; Elder, 1994; Kuijsten, 1996; Burch and Matthews, 1987). This has been followed by an unprecedented pluralisation of household arrangements, as evidenced by the rise of ‘dual-career households’ and ‘step-families’, among other fluid structures (Bornat et al., 1999; Caces et al., 1985). Such trends have led to the decoupling of kinship and co-residence in the domestic group, and the destabilisation of the traditional definition of the household as a social unit occupying a single housing space (see Paris, 1995; Myers, 1990; Kemeny, 1992). The socio-spatial fragmentation of household, family and residential structures has complicated the relationship between demography and housing, because “the size and composition of a household affects its housing consumption in terms of the physical aspects of housing demand” (Randolph, 1991, p. 38). The greater number and range of household arrangements have increased and transformed the demand for housing in developed-world cities. The changing living arrangements stemming from such dynamics have triggered a series of urban spatial transformations. For example, the emergence of ‘urban tribes’ in North American cities (see Watters, 2004) embodies the multiple connections between household demography and urban spatial change, because these groups provide

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support networks for bridging the period between university education and married life. Their shared commitment to flexible life-choices and life-courses has transformed the geographies of housing demand, daily mobility and service provision in large metropolitan areas. The Urban Implications of New Household Demographies More than 20 years ago, Frey and Kobrin (1982) noted that “primary individuals constitute the most important target population for future city gains” (p. 275; also see Clark, 1987). Consequently, many developed-world cities were subjected to spatially selective and targeted migration processes, which resulted in the spatial stratification of household structures within different parts of the city (Borgegard and Murdie, 1993; Jobse and Musterd, 1993; Ermisch, 1991; Hall and Ogden, 2003). In France, the repopulation of inner-city areas has been marked by a rapid growth in the numbers of single and/or cohabiting young professionals in central cities (Ogden and Hall, 2000, 2004). Such processes have stimulated the growth of dedicated commercial, cultural and civic facilities (see Seo, 2002; van den Berg et al., 1982; Lever, 1993; Fishman, 2000; Buzar et al., 2005). The increased labour participation of women, although not undisputed (Lyons, 1998), has also contributed to these social and spatial changes (Bondi, 1991), alongside the changing nature of employment per se (Castells, 1993). Although sexual and ethnic minorities were traditionally located at the margins of American and European housing markets, the recent period has affirmed them as key urban actors and agents of change (Lauria and Knopp, 1985; Bell and Valentine, 1995). Without the persistent inflow of international immigrants, many European cities would suffer extensive population and capital losses in their inner urban fabric (Golini, 2001). However, many of the wider ramifications of recent economic, spatial and social shifts remain unclear, not the least due to their

varying evolution in different spatial settings. In the French context, Fagnani (1993) has claimed that central Paris is particularly attractive for dual-career families due to short commuting distances and the provision of cultural amenities, while Bessy-Pietri (2000) maintains that second-generation urban dwellers tend to prefer central-city living to suburban locations. On the other hand, Williams’ comprehensive review of “the chances for reducing sprawl and delivering an urban renaissance in England”, has concluded that We are potentially at a critical point in time, when the data are beginning to show very small glimmers of hope for the urban optimists [even though] preferences for economic and residential locations are still following predominantly outward trends (Williams, 2004, p. 51). Such disagreements in the literature emphasise the need for further in-depth research on the socioeconomic underpinnings of the spatial ‘sorting’ of household structures and migration patterns in European post-industrial cities through a context-sensitive framework. Demographic and Urban Developments in the Four Study Countries An overview of key population trends between 1980 and 2002 (see Table 1) suggests that all four countries are well into the second demographic transition. This is illustrated, for instance, by the rapid drop in total fertility rates, which have fallen below replacement levels, bringing the rate of natural increase to or below zero in nearly all four countries. However, the resulting low natural increase of the population has often been offset by the rising rate of net migration. This figure increased rapidly in Italy and Spain between 1980 and 2002, while decreasing in Slovenia and Germany—especially in the eastern part of Germany, where it is far into negative ground. Further evidence of the second demographic transition is provided in the form of falling marriage rates and rising divorce rates across all countries, as well as the

Table 1. Key demographic trends in the four study countries, 1980–2002 Mean age of women at

Crude rate of

Natural increase (percentage)

Net migration (percentage)

Total period fertility rate

Extra-marital births per 100

Country

1980

2002

1980

2002

1980

2002

1980

2002

1980

2002

1980

2002

1980

2002

1980

2000

Germany Eastern Germany Italy Slovenia Spain

20.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8

20.1 20.3 0.0 0.0 0.1

0.39 20.05 0.01 0.29 0.30

0.20 20.96 0.31 0.14 0.88

1.56 1.94 1.64 2.10 2.20

1.38 1.22 1.24 1.26 1.24

12 23 4 13 4

23 52 10 37 18

6.3 8.0 5.7 6.5 5.9

5.1 3.9 4.9 3.6 5.4

1.8 2.7 0.2 1.2 0.4

2.4 1.9 0.7 1.1 1.0

23 22 24 23 23

27 25 b 27 27 28

26 25 27 25 28

29 26 b 30 28 31

a

Marriages

Divorces

First marriagea

Childbearing


Rate of

Women older than 50 have not been included. Figure refers to 1995. Source: CoE (2003).

b

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increased mean age of women at first marriage and childbearing. But the (former eastern) Germany/Slovenia vs Italy/Spain cleavage is also evident in this instance, as the former pair has significantly lower marriage rates and higher divorce rates than the latter. The difference between the two sets of countries is yet more pronounced in the case of extramarital births, whose number is five times higher in the eastern part of Germany than in Italy. Nevertheless, even in this case, there is an unmistakable upward trend across all countries, indicating that the destabilisation of traditional family patterns and childbearing choices is well underway. However, the four cities also possess a number of specific economic, demographic and urban features. In Germany, the dramatic geopolitical shifts of the past century have led to major changes in the rank–size distribution of settlements, to the disadvantage of large eastern cities such as Leipzig. Although it was the country’s fifth-largest city in 1939, with a number of nationally significant functions such as the German Constitutional Court, Leipzig fell to the 15th position in 1998 (Gans and Kemper, 2002). The post-socialist transformation has destabilised the economic, demographic and internal spatial structure of the city even further, creating new patterns of urban shrinkage and residential segregation (Kabisch et al., 1997; Steinfu¨hrer, 2004; Mu¨ller, 2004; Nuissl and Rink, 2005; Herfert, 1997; Wiessner 1999, p. 50; but also see Hannemann et al., 2002; Andrusz et al., 1996). One of the most pervasive—and unanticipated—consequences of post-socialist

out-migration and deindustrialisation has been the rapid increase in the housing vacancy rate, which had led to approximately 51 000 empty dwellings in Leipzig—16 per cent of the entire housing stock—by the end of 2003 (Municipality of Leipzig, 2004, p. 15). The development prospects of this city have been constrained even further by the unfavourable demographic situation of the surrounding regions of eastern Germany (the Neue La¨nder), which has been subject to record low fertility rates, out-migration to the former western Germany and unprecedented unemployment levels since the beginning of the 1990s (see Table 2). The post-socialist period has also affected Slovenia’s population and development patterns, as the Ljubljana region has been attracting disproportionately high amounts of economic investment while reaching record rates of female labour participation and workforce education. This is evidenced by the fact that both the GDP per capita and the share of service employment are above the Slovenian and EU average (Table 2). However, population growth has tended to concentrate in the outer urban ring of Ljubljana, endangering the city’s inner urban quarters. These areas contain mixed-use residential and industrial areas that were already starved of investment during the socialist period (Municipality of Ljubljana, 2001). In Italy, the post-Fordist economic developments of the 1980s have brought about a reversal of previous processes of metropolitan growth, as large urban centres have been losing their residential population

Table 2. Selected economic indicators for the four cities (percentages) Indicator Unemployment rate GDP as share of EU average (adjusted for purchasing power parity) Percentage of GDP generated by Agriculture Industry Services

Leipzig

Ljubljana

Bologna

Leoń

20 82

7 110

2 134

9 81

0 15 78

1 25 74

4 33 63

8 35 57

Sources: Bologni (2003); Eurostat (2006). Data compiled by the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research Leipzig and the city of Leoń.


(Bonifazi and Heins, 2003; Petsimeris, 1998; Dematteis, 1986). However, according to Petsimeris We are faced with processes of urban deconcentration which are not processes of decentralisation. What is taking place is a process of selective centralisation of functions (Petsimeris, 2002, p. 234). The demographic rejuvenation of Italian inner cities has often been driven by the intensification of overseas immigration (Golini, 2001, p. 28). All of these processes can be observed in Bologna, whose development prospects have also been aided by its location in one of the most prosperous regions in Italy and Europe (for example, see Table 2). Spain also underwent rapid dynamics of urbanisation and industrialisation during the 1970s and 1980s, which destabilised traditional Spanish family and household relations, while transforming the nature of urban lifestyles (Pareja Alonso, 2000; Reher, 1997; BarreraGonzales, 1998; Gontillez, 1998). Such developments were accompanied by a number of deep changes in the socio-spatial composition of the country’s urban system (for example see Dura-Guimera, 2003). The Spanish city emerged as a specific architectural, cultural and demographic form, which has been conceived . . . and considered as a reservoir of urban diversity because of the archetypal image of density, urban complexity and social diversity (Munoz, 2003, p. 385). Suburbanisation, underinvestment and social polarisation are beginning to endanger the traditional social character of these urban structures (Luna-Garcia, 2003; Munoz, 2003). Leoń itself has not been immune to such problems, partly because it is located in one of the lessdeveloped parts of the country (Table 2). In summary, then, it can be stated that the four case study cities share several commonalities at the respective national scales, while also diverging in a number of important ways at the regional and urban levels. (Eastern) Germany, Slovenia, Italy and Spain alike have been experiencing rising divorce and extra-marital birth rates, less and later

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marriage, and the postponement of childbearing. All of them, with the exception of the eastern part of Germany, have benefited from positive migration balances in national terms. These trends have been crucial in compensating for the acceleration of demographic ageing, which otherwise stems from falling fertility rates and rising life expectancy. At the same time, all four countries have been subject to extensive counterurbanisation and suburbanisation dynamics. However, the numerous differences between the four cities should also be taken into account. One of the key distinguishing features of Leipzig is the loss of population and employment brought about by the postsocialist transformation and the declining importance of this city in the German settlement system, post-World War II. Although Ljubljana has not experienced such problems during post-socialism, it too has experienced strong processes of economic and demographic suburbanisation. In Bologna—as elsewhere in northern Italy—some of the main urban issues include the economic and demographic consequences of post-Fordism. Like other Spanish cities, Leoń has been struggling to maintain the specific character of its inner city in the face of social polarisation, outmigration and capital flight. At this point, it is important to note that, although the project was not geared specifically towards the detection and analysis of gentrification-related phenomena, we did observe such processes both within some of the case study areas and in the inner-city areas more broadly. Parts of the riverfronts of Leipzig and Ljubljana, as well as selected sections of the historical cores of Bologna and Leoń, have all seen recent developments that possess all the typical features of ‘newbuild gentrification’ (Davidson and Lees, 2005). Earlier dynamics of gentrification have been described in a range of locally published literatures (Hill and Wiest, 2004; Municipality of Ljubljana, 2001; Municipality of Bologna, 2003; also see Petsimeris, 2005). However, these processes are limited to particular populations and parts of the urban fabric.

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New Family Choices and Lifestyles in the Inner City: The Second Demographic Transition in Action Aggregate population numbers and trends provide little evidence of reurbanisation in the four study cities. All four of them have lost part of their total residential population since 1991, even though Leoń experienced a slight increase between 1991 and 1996 (Table 3). Leipzig and Bologna saw the most dramatic declines, followed by Ljubljana and Leoń in that order. At the same time, however, the total number of households increased in all four cities, and especially in Leoń.4 The mismatch between household and population numbers indicates that cumulative trends lie at the surface of a broader array of social dynamics that may not be apparent at the level of the entire city. The questionnaire survey within the smallest areas of analysis outlined above—the eight case study quarters—indicated that these areas have recently begun to attract household structures connected to the second demographic transition (Haase et al., 2005a, 2005c). Three household types—one-person households, groups of unrelated adults sharing an apartment and young parents at the beginning of their housing careers— dominate the entire set of recent (less than 5 years) in-migrants, whose overall share within the current residential population ranges between 17 per cent and 21 per cent for the Ljubljana and the Leoń study areas respectively, 30 per cent in Bologna and 58 per cent in Leipzig. Considering that such demographic categories constitute a new residential stratum in the inner city, it can be concluded that the diversification of family and household patterns is having a major effect on the residential reurbanisation of the respective districts.

Living Alone in the Central City The reviewed evidence points to rising numbers of young one-person households in the urban cores of Leipzig, Ljubljana, Bologna and Leoń, although the intensity of

this process varies from city to city. The rise of living alone is particularly pronounced in Leipzig, where the share of one-person households exceeds 50 per cent in parts of the inner city.5 Out of the total number of one-person households, 44 per cent are less than 40 years of age. However, 34 per cent of surveyed young one-person households in Altlindenau and 29 per cent in Neustadt-Neuscho¨nefeld expressed an intention to move away from these two districts in the near future, against respective district-wide means of 26 per cent and 24 per cent (for these and all other empirical results from the questionnaire survey, see Haase et al., 2005b, 2005c). The high latent mobility potential of this household group may be related to its negative perception of the neighbourhoods’ suitability for childrearing. (This factor received the worst evaluation among one-person households, compared with all other groups.) Similar trends were observed in Ljubljana, whose inner-city areas have seen the fastest growth rates of one-person households relative to the remainder of the city during the past decade, besides having the highest household share of such demographic structures (Table 3). Together with the fact that the urban core possesses the highest-skilled workforce in Ljubljana, these trends suggest that the city centre is becoming attractive for young urban professionals. Further relevant evidence is provided by the survey finding that 84 per cent and 81 per cent of recent (i.e. during the past 5 years) migrants to respectively, the northern and southern study areas in the city centre are between 18 and 40 years of age. Such processes may have contributed to the deceleration of the ageing process in parts of the city centre. Although youth rates decreased throughout Ljubljana during the 1990s, the percentage drop of the youth rate in Ljubljana city centre, south, during the 1990s was lower than the demographically vital south-eastern suburbs of Ljubljana (see Table 4). The structure of the dwelling stock in the centre suits small households because there are more one- and two-bedroom flats than large apartments. Compared with the suburbs, the city centre

Total population

Leipzig Ljubljana Bologna Leoń a

Percentage change

Percentage change

1991

1996

2004

1991– 2004

1991

1996

2004

1991–2004

503 191 272 650 406 291 141 368

441 346 a n.a. 385 136 146 792

463 454 ab 265 881 c 374 425 141 022

27.90 22.48 27.84 20.24

243 800 100 227 173 873 d 45 426

226 200 n.a. 176 988 53 232

278 100 b 102 646 c 190 035 55 608

14.07 2.41 9.30 22.41

Estimated total population within 1991 administrative boundaries. Figure refers to 2002. c Figure refers to 2001. d Figure refers to 1993, due to different calculation methodology in previous years. Sources: Data compiled by the cities of Leipzig, Ljubljana, Bologna and Leoń. b

Total number of households


Table 3. Total population and household numbers in the four study cities, 1991–2004

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Table 4. Selected demographic features of the constituent urban units of Ljubljana Population sharea of Percentage Household a share of one-person Persons with Ethnic Youth households minoritiesc higher education (percentage) Youth rate rated (percentage) (percentage) Ljubljana City centre Northern study area Southern study area Eastern inner city Northern inner city Northern suburbs North-eastern rural areas South-eastern suburbs

changeb in Share of one-person households

0.24 0.23 0.21 0.24 0.26 0.22 0.27 0.28

27.8 37.2 36.2 36.7 29.2 20.5 23.5 29.7

26.2 26.3 n.a. n.a. 36.5 25.8 15.3 23.5

24.0 34.0 n.a. n.a. 16.9 26.2 24.5 16.4

32.3 31.6 30.1 24.0 21.2 28.6 37.7 41.1

24.2 18.1 12.6 14.1 27.6 31.8 23.9 38.0

0.20

19.2

26.9

27.7

24.7

16.7

a

Share of relevant group of households/persons within, respectively, total number of households/persons in 2002. Percentage change of relevant figures between 1991 and 2002. c Individuals who declared themselves as non-ethnic Slovenes at the census. d The youth rate expresses the ratio between the populations under and over 20. Source: Data compiled by the city of Ljubljana. b

has nearly 20 per cent more small dwellings and 200 per cent fewer large dwellings (Municipality of Ljubljana, 2001). Bologna also exhibits a strong tendency for small households to locate in the historical centre and the densely built-up areas around it. According to comprehensive city-level data provided by the municipal registry, mean household size in the urban core decreased from 1.48 to 1.28 between 1991 and 2003, as opposed to 1.96 vs 1.76 in the inner city and 2.21 to 1.94 in the suburbs. The propensity to live alone in a given district is inversely proportional to its distance from the city centre, as the proportion of one-person households reached 49.9 per cent in the historical core, 35.6 per cent in the inner city and 33.5 per cent in the suburbs6 (while the Bologna-wide mean is 43.2 per cent). All of these ratios have increased by at least one percentage point since 2002. The highest concentrations of single households were registered in the northern part of the historical core (56 per cent above the city-wide mean), as well as in the districts of Bolognina and San Donato. The age structure of one-person households provides yet more evidence of the

implications of the second demographic transition for the socio-demographic anatomy of Bologna. The municipal registry dataset indicated that more than 17 per cent of all oneperson households living in the historical urban core are less than 30 years of age, although this share decreases to 12.3 per cent and 10.2 per cent in the inner city and the suburbs respectively. However, the corresponding percentages for one-person households younger than 44 years have reached 49.4 per cent, 39.8 per cent, and 36.8 per cent in the centre, inner city and suburbs respectively. According to the results of the questionnaire survey, the inner city is a particularly attractive location for young professionals, due to its relatively low rent levels, as well as the easy access to transport, commercial and cultural amenities. The spatial distribution of household structures in Leoń reflects the inner city’s suitability for particular types of domestic arrangement. As in Bologna, there is an inverse spatial relationship between average household size in any given district and its distance from the city centre; according to the civil registry of the City of Leoń, this


figure ranges from 1.98 in the urban core, to 2.67 in the most outlying districts. Yet, although young (i.e. less than 45 years of age) one-person households are particularly overrepresented in the early 20th-century tenement blocks on the western side of the city centre—where their concentrations are 30 per cent higher than the city-wide average—they are almost absent from the eastern inner-city district of El Ejido. This can be attributed to the building character of the latter, which consists of lower-density residential quarters with a much more traditional, family-orientated housing and population structure. The city centre (which also contains the study quarter of El Casco Antiguo) is in an intermediary position between these two extremes, although the total number of young one-person households resident here has doubled since 1996. In all three areas, however, there is no distinct spatial pattern in the distribution of households—they are scattered throughout the residential housing stock. The questionnaire survey indicated that the rehabilitation of the historical building stock during recent decades has prompted higher-income householders to buy property and settle in the area. It is worth noting that more than 30 per cent of all recent immigrants to El Casco Antiguo are represented by highly educated one- and two-person households, which is yet another indicator of its changing demographic and professional character (Haase et al., 2005c). Flat-sharers and ‘Studentification’ As noted earlier, the second demographic transition has transformed the nature of kin and friendship in developed-world cities, grouping individuals into a much wider range of generational and professional ties. One of the results of this shift has been the rise of unrelated flatsharing households: groups of (mainly) young adults, who live in the same dwelling and may share a common budget. These kinds of household structure are common in all the four cities, although their presence in Ljubljana had to be ascertained through

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secondary sources, due to the lack of sufficiently disaggregated statistical data. According to the questionnaire survey, not all unrelated flat-sharing households have single household budgets, so that it is difficult to draw a strict economic boundary between them and one-person households. The survey also revealed a wide array of different selfperceptions among this group, with definitions ranging from “a set of single households living in the same dwelling”, to “families with multiple members”. Nevertheless, we have decided to treat these structures as a single household type, due to their characteristic housing careers, socioeconomic status, life-courses and expenditure patterns. Although a disproportionately high number of flat-sharing households are concentrated in Leipzig’s inner ring, the questionnaire survey indicated that their frequency in the two study districts is lower than the broader inner-city average. This can be attributed to the small size of the dwellings in the survey districts, where most flats have two bedrooms. While the rate of flat-sharers in the total number of households hardly reached 6 per cent in Altlindenau, the same figure exceeded 18 per cent in Neustadt-Neuscho¨nefeld. In both areas, this household type was dominated (94 per cent) by individuals aged under 30 years, who are mainly students. The most frequent reasons given for moving to the inner city for this group were almost identical to those expressed by oneperson households: moderate rents, a satisfactory dwelling, as well as the good accessibility of the city centre and the place of work/education. However, the latent mobility potential among flat-sharers was somewhat lower than the mean value for all other groups (21 per cent vs 24 per cent) in Neustadt-Neuscho¨nefeld, where their concentrations were disproportionately high. Thus, even though flat-sharers appear to be more flexible in their residential choice compared with other groups, they do not necessarily belong to the most mobile parts of the population. This is despite the temporary character of their present housing status, which is likely to change due to this group’s specific

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professional and educational position. Nevertheless, the favourable residential environment of the inner city, coupled with the presence of affordable rental housing, will continue to provide an important residential pull factor for future students at Leipzig University. The importance of flat-sharing households for the demographic vitality of declining inner-city areas is particularly pronounced in Bologna, where they constitute the largest group of recent in-migrants to the survey areas (32 per cent). Once again, the presence of a university has been a key driving-force of reurbanisation, as 26 per cent of all recent in-migrants to the two study areas in Bologna are students, compared with the 10 per cent of students in the total residential population of the city. Moreover, 72 per cent of recent migrants to the two study areas either have a university degree or secondary education, as opposed to 56 per cent at the level of the whole city. This is one of the strongest indicators that Bolognina and San Donato have lost their traditional working-class character, in demographic, economic and educational terms. Data from both the municipal registry and the questionnaire survey indicate that students and other flat-sharers are interspersed with other residential strata in the inner city, forming a ‘splintered’ urban geography. The inner city of Leoń also contains a disproportionately high number of non-traditional household arrangements, including flat-sharing households. Even though traditional family structures are still visibly present in the inner city (particularly in the area of El Ejido with its family-friendly housing stock, as noted earlier), the urban core of Leoń is also becoming the focal point of a much wider range of ‘fluid’ household structures, produced by the processes of the second demographic transition. These demographic changes reflect the broader transformation of Spanish families and society (see Reher, 1997; Barrera-Gonzales, 1998). As in Bologna, the spatial distribution of flat-sharers in Leoń does not follow a distinct pattern—they are scattered throughout the surveyed inner-city areas.

Young Families In addition to the childless households listed above, the analysed inner cities are also becoming attractive for young parents at the beginning of their housing careers. The presence of this demographic stratum in such densely built inner-city areas defies the conventional expectation that they would favour a suburban location over continuing to live in the urban core. Yet it remains doubtful to what extent these kinds of household are similar to the ‘family gentrifiers’ or ‘yuppies’ described by Karsten (2003), as the surveyed families tended to occupy the lower end of the housing market. The questionnaire survey indicated that roughly half of all the households in this group have migrated into the Leipzig case study areas during the previous five years. When asked to provide a hypothetical list of the key features of their ‘ideal’ neighbourhood environment, respondents emphasised neighbourhood safety, moderate rents and the proximity of shopping and transport amenities. The low prioritisation of homeownership and the absence of a pronounced desire to live in a suburban location match these households’ positive perception of the inner city, which is particularly pronounced in Altlindenau. In most respects, families with young children have a higher opinion of the survey districts than childless households, especially with regard to the suitability of the residential environment for child-rearing. However, 30 per cent of the interviewed families with non-adult children expressed an intention to move out of the area in the near future, as opposed to an inner-city-wide average of 25 per cent. The main explanation for this was the desire to live in a larger (but nonetheless rental) dwelling, followed by the avoidance of noise pollution and the improvement of the social environment. In Ljubljana, families with a head of household under 40 years of age constitute 20 per cent of all interviewed households in the two study quarters. Adding this figure to the equivalent 5 per cent share of cohabiting couples without children implies that approximately


25 per cent of the total number of households in the city centre of Ljubljana is composed of families at the threshold of the child-rearing process. This is similar to the situation found in the two study areas in Bologna, where families with children represent the largest group of recent in-migrants: 32 per cent in Bolognina and 26 per cent in San Donato. The former area also has a record concentration of children and adolescents, amounting to 16 per cent of the total residential population. Nevertheless, although facilities for children do not appear to be an important reason for the choice of residential location, families with children also constitute the largest share (28 per cent) of potential outmigrants from the inner city. Leoń’s inner city has a specific situation with respect to the presence of families with young children, as the district of El Ejido contains unusually high concentrations of such households. According to the questionnaire survey, families with non-adult children account for 53 per cent of all households recently settled in the area (as opposed to 16 per cent in El Casco Antiguo), while constituting its most frequent family type (27 per cent of all households). They also represent 58 per cent of all the households with heads younger than 45 years. This finding underlines the attractiveness of the area for young families, even though the survey detected a remarkable number of resident families with adult children and older parents; 20 per cent of the respondents younger than 45 years still live with their parents, which may reflect broader socio-cultural circumstances in the Spanish housing market.

Unbundling Reurbanisation: Population Flows and Structures The Direction of Migration Flows The unfavourable course of recent natural population dynamics in the eastern part of Germany underscores the importance of inmigration for the demographic future of Leipzig. Until recently, however, migration balances were well into the negative range,

667

due to the out-migration of working-age adults to western Germany and the suburbanisation and counterurbanisation of all agegroups, especially families with children, to the hinterland of Leipzig. This process began in the mid 1990s as a result of the national policy of providing subsidies for ‘greenfield’ commercial and real estate developments, which tended to locate at the fringes of large urban areas (Herfert, 1997; Nuissl and Rink, 2005). The late 1990s have brought about a series of dramatic changes in the structure and direction of population flows. Ever-increasing numbers of east Germans have begun to move into Leipzig, although out-migration to western Germany continues at the same pace. However, even though 7607 Leipzig residents migrated to western Germany in 2001 (against 4804 new arrivals from that part of the country; see CLOSE, 2004, p. 8), the number of east Germans moving to Leipzig reached a record 11 712 during the same year, up from 3860 in 1993. To a certain extent, this can be attributed to the expansion of the city’s administrative borders in 1994 and 1999, which led to the incorporation of a significant part of the former urban hinterland within the official city limits. In 2003, most inner-city quarters in Leipzig experienced total population increases exceeding 9 per cent per annum. This is despite the fact that the equivalent growth at the level of the entire city barely reached 1 per cent. Such population rises were overwhelmingly driven by the in-migration of students from outside the urban boundaries, as natural population balances were negative throughout the inner city, falling to less than –10 per cent per annum in some areas. Population growth has been particularly strong in the ring of Gru¨nderzeit tenement blocks surrounding the city centre, as opposed to the socialist-era prefabricated panel estates on the outskirts, which have been experiencing intense population losses (CLOSE, 2004). Aside from the rapid improvement of the residential quality of historical residential areas in the inner city, inmigrants to Gru¨nderzeit areas have benefited

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from low living costs, cultural amenities and favourable transport connections. According to census data compiled by the municipal government, Ljubljana’s total population decreased by 3 per cent between 1991 and 2002, although some of the surrounding municipalities had increases of more than 20 per cent. The broader Ljubljana conurbation may have grown by more than 20 000 new inhabitants over the past decade, although the city of Ljubljana has lost 6769 of its residents during the same period. Such changes have reflected differently on different parts of the urban fabric. While the outskirts of the city have gained 25 per cent more inhabitants on average, the residential population of the urban core has decreased by 13 per cent since 1991. On the other hand, the city of Bologna lost nearly 35 000 of its inhabitants between 1991 and 2001, while the surrounding 7 smaller municipalities in its province all gained an average of approximately 5000 new residents during the same period (Municipality of Bologna, 2003, p. 17). This implies that the Bologna region has been deeply affected by recent counterurbanisation dynamics in northern Italy. However, these generic figures may hide a number of more subtle countertrends. In 1996, the city of Bologna had a positive migration balance for the first time since 1973 (not counting a one-off peak in 1992). Moreover, the city has gained more than 1000 net migrants per year on average between 1996 and 2000 (Municipality of Bologna, 2003, p. 47). According to municipal registry data, in-migration from outside the city boundaries has been particularly beneficial for the inner city and historical centre of Bologna, where the total number of recently settled residents increased by 150 per cent between 1992 and 2002, although this figure often exceeds 400 per cent in selected parts of the inner city. The centre of the city had a positive migration balance of 496 inhabitants in 2004, although the same area has been gaining, on average, a net 77 new residents per year since 1994, when the migration balance was positive for the first time since 1980.

According to its civil registry dataset, Leoń stands out from the remaining three cities in that its total population had been increasing up to 1996, when the population growth rate dropped to –1 per cent per annum and never recovered. This is despite the fact that Leoń had a negative total natural population balance throughout the 1990s. At the same time births exceeded deaths in the 12 suburban settlements at the fringes of the city. The same group of settlements has also managed to attract a disproportionately large number of migrants coming into the city (1964 persons/ year on average, between 1990 and 2001), while maintaining low rates of out-migration (1051 persons/year). This accounts for their positive (and gradually increasing) migration balances throughout the 1990s. On the other hand, even though it has been the final destination of most newcomers to Leoń during 1990– 2001 (30 910 for the whole period, or an average of 2576 persons/year), the inner city has simultaneously lost a large share of its residential population (3180 persons/year on average). Its migration balance has remained negative since 1990, with an intensifying downward trend. Thus, even though all the four analysed cities had negative cumulative migration balances in the early 1990s, Leipzig and Bologna have seen a significant reversal of their demographic fortunes during, roughly, the past 5 and 10 years respectively. Inner-city areas have been the primary beneficiaries of inward and intraurban population flows in these two cities. While data limitations make it impossible to ascertain whether this has been the case in Ljubljana, other sources of information (on-site questionnaires and interviews) have not provided any significant evidence of intensifying inmigration. However, the available data indicate that Ljubljana has above-average negative migration balances in the inner city. Leoń started to lose population just as Leipzig and Bologna began to gain it, although some of its suburbs still have a positive migration balance, and the inner city has been attracting the majority of in-migrants during the 1990s. The residential attractiveness of these areas accounts for the relatively late emergence of


a negative migration balance at the level of the entire city of Leoń. The Structure of Population Movements A closer look at the structure of in-migration to the two study districts of Altlindenau and Neustadt-Neuscho¨nefeld (which, as noted above, represent the broader areas of western and eastern inner-city Leipzig respectively) reveals a number of significant differences in the structure of migration movements. On the one hand, western inner-city Leipzig has attracted a wide range of household types, including low- and middle-income flatsharers, parents with small children and cohabiting couples seeking ‘alternative’ lifestyles.7 The share of ‘foreigners’ (i.e. international immigrants, or Ausla¨nder) in this area increased from 1 per cent in 1992 to 7 per cent in 2003 (CLOSE, 2004, p. 184). Altlindenau also has some initial signs of young professional in-migrants, even though there is no evidence of gentrification in the classic meaning of the term, despite the presence of several up-market developments. Although these developments are concentrated in a specific part of Altlindenau, we could not detect any particular residential segregation patterns in the district, as the multiplicity of household types described above are mixed at the level of individual buildings. On the other hand, the eastern area of Neustadt-Neuscho¨nefeld has experienced a large influx of international immigrants from different ethnic groups, especially from Vietnam, Iraq and eastern Europe. The absolute number of Ausla¨nder increased from 159 in 1992 to 1430 in 2003, bringing their total population share up to 15 per cent (CLOSE, 2004, p. 59). Even this tally may underestimate the size of international immigration, because the area also contains a significant number of immigrants from the former Soviet Union, who have been given permission to move to Germany on the basis of German or Jewish ethnic origin. (These two groups are also known as Spa¨taussiedler and Kontingentflu¨chtlinge respectively; also see Jones and Wild, 1992.)8 The questionnaire

669

survey indicated that such households mainly contain younger people and tend to be composed of families with dependent children. However, empirical evidence concerning this group is very limited and needs further research. Considering that only every fourth international immigrant expressed a specific intention to leave the area in the near future, it is likely that this group will continue to play an important demographic role in inner-city Leipzig, while reinforcing the emergent patterns of ethnic segregation. Bologna resembles Leipzig in that its negative migration balance between 1992 and 1996 was mainly driven by the loss of population to other areas within the same province. Between 1997 and 2001, however, Bologna has had a net gain of 6556 inhabitants, which can be attributed to the increased rate of in-migration from outside Bologna province. Taken together, these flows were stronger than the continued seepage of population from the city of Bologna to the surrounding municipalities. Although the majority of inmigrants during the 1990s have been composed of arrivals from southern Italy and the islands, which make up about 70 per cent of all in-country immigrants to Bologna, the rate of foreign immigration has also accelerated dramatically during the past few years. At 9 per cent, Bologna’s host region of Emilia – Romagna had the highest rate of overseas migration in 2001 (see Municipality of Bologna, 2003, p. 24, for more information). As a result, not only does 12 per cent of the total migrant population (i.e. residents who have settled there during the past 10 years) in the historical core consist of overseas arrivals, but this type of migration has also made an important contribution to the rejuvenation of adjacent demographically declining inner-city districts. This is because incoming foreigners (who mainly originate from China, Albania and north Africa) are much younger than the population of the recipient areas. Municipal registry data indicate that overseas migrants with young infants have preferred to settle in the extensive quarters

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STEFAN BUZAR ET AL.

of former workers’ housing north of the city centre, where the 0– 5 age-cohort of foreign immigrants is almost three times larger than the same cohort for the rest of the population; the ratio between these two cohorts stands at 1.8 at the level of the entire city of Bologna. However, the more prosperous suburban areas to the south, as well as the historical centre, have a much older age structure of foreign migrants. This is a reversal of previous trends, which saw higher concentrations of younger international immigrants in the historical centre. It can thus be deduced that the 1990s have been marked by the emergence of a specific pattern of status and life-course segregation among the overseas migrant population, who have tended to suburbanise and migrate to the prosperous southern suburbs as they get older and become wealthier. However, there is little evidence of ethnic ‘ghettoisation’ in the poorer parts of the inner city, as international immigrants in this area are densely interspersed with second demographic transition-related households and the older resident population (for a further discussion of general trends in ethnic segregation in European cities, see Musterd et al., 1997) Ljubljana and Leoń have significantly weaker patterns of international migration. In Ljubljana, nearly 50 per cent of the demographic losses experienced by its urban core since 1991 are accounted for by mortality in the cohort above 75 years of age, while approximately 15 per cent can be attributed to falling birth rates. The remaining 35 per cent is due to out-migration of the middleage cohorts, which increases in importance as the geographical scope of analysis is widened to other non-suburban areas of Ljubljana. None of these areas has been subject to international immigration, as almost 98 per cent of their population is ethnically Slovene. The only area with a significantly above-average share of ethnic minorities (almost 30 per cent) is a large housing estate in eastern Ljubljana. The 1980s to mid 1990s arrival of immigrant workers from the former Yugoslavia aided the demographic rejuvenation of this part of

the city, as evidenced by the fact that the ratio between the under-20 cohort and the working-age population is 35 per cent higher than the city-wide average. However, the settlement of international immigrants in other parts of the city has been thwarted by recent immigration restrictions, high living costs and strong internal barriers within the housing market. Finally, Leoń provides a particularly interesting case study of the relationships between migration and reurbanisation, thanks to the deepening negative migration balance of its inner city during the 1990s. A closer look at the structure of population movements during the 1990s indicates that 57 per cent of all arrivals to the inner city of Leoń originated from within the same province, which contains a number of smaller towns, villages and exurbs. The equivalent figure in the case of recent in-migration to the suburbs amounted to 80 per cent of all new arrivals, which means that rural or small-town dwellers who have relocated to the regional capital prefer suburban to inner-city living. At the same time, 56 per cent of all out-migrants from the inner city have chosen the surrounding province as their final residential destination, implying that counterurbanisation is well underway in this part of Spain. However, ‘zooming’ in to the inner-city quarters of El Ejido and El Casco Antiguo reveals an entire new set of processes. According to data provided by the City of Leoń, both areas gained an estimated 500 new residents through in-migration between 1996 and 2004, as a result of which they now possess a distinctive milieu of social groups, including: young professionals and parents, students, international immigrants, extended families and pensioner households (the latter two groups represent older population strata). It can be argued that this social mix is connected to the diversity and density of housing choices available there which, in turn, stems from the rapid dynamic of metropolitan growth in Spain during the 1960s and 1970s. Some authors have stressed that this process created


very attractive working-class neighbourhoods, with all sorts of social and cultural infrastructure and with a considerable quality of life for their residents (LunaGarcia, 2003, p. 379). Part of the distinctiveness of El Casco Antiguo is rooted in its higher-than-average concentration of international immigrants. While the share of international immigrants in the entire inner city of Leoń now stands at 3 per cent, this figure reaches almost 6 per cent in certain parts of El Casco Antiguo, mainly in its poorer western section. Unlike Bologna and Ljubljana, overseas immigration is a relatively recent and low-income phenomenon here, as, for instance, the population share of international migrants in the working-class districts north and west of the city centre often exceeds the city-wide average by 50 per cent. Although the greatest number of foreign migrants (51 per cent at the level of Leoń) originates from the American continent, there are also significant numbers of Africans and east Europeans. In the districts where they predominate, these groups constitute 28 per cent and 37 per cent of the total migrant population respectively. To summarise, recent migration trends in the smaller spatial units within the four reviewed cities have provided an important corrective to the findings of higher-level analyses. Leipzig, Ljubljana, Bologna and Leoń alike exhibit some signs of reurbanisation in the course and content of recent population flows, despite the fact that cumulative migration balances have been negative in Ljubljana and Leoń. International migration has played a significant role in the repopulation and rejuvenation of inner-city areas, although its effects vary from city to city. Migration from outside the German borders has transformed the demographic character of some parts of inner-city Leipzig, even though its effects have yet to be felt throughout the city. Although Ljubljana is the only city without major population flows in the inner urban fabric, it too has benefited from working-class migration from the former Yugoslavia in the recent past. Bologna has a

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multilayered history of international immigration, which has led to significant population increases and to north–south movements in the inner city. Leoń has recently become attractive for a wide range of overseas migrants, who have often (but not always) chosen to live in low-income and workingclass quarters. The Leipzig, Bologna and Leoń study districts show a diffused geographical distribution of immigrant households, which forms a ‘splintered’ spatial mix alongside second demographic transitionrelated households. Conclusion This paper has investigated the demographic contingencies of reurbanisation—a process of repopulating the inner city with a variety of social groups and lifestyles— through the lens of recent population trends in Leipzig, Ljubljana, Bologna and Leoń. Based on the available evidence, it can be concluded that all of these cities are undergoing some form of reurbanisation, because all of them have experienced processes of in-migration and social diversification of inner-city areas, particularly in relation to the second demographic transition. The rise of living alone, delayed child-bearing and the destabilisation and dissolution of traditional family structures— among other recent population trends—have increased the concentration of particular types of household in the inner urban fabric. The analysed cities are subject to rising concentrations of young professionals, students and young parents at the beginning of their housing careers, among other ‘nontraditional’ inner-city dwellers. This has led to a rapid rise in the total number of urban households, while contributing to the redensification and rejuvenation of selected parts of the built environment. In a way, such innercity areas have become ‘populated by households’ rather than by individuals (see Buzar et al., 2005) as household numbers have been growing in the face of declining population counts. Thus, in response to the first research question of this paper, we can state that the examined empirical evidence has

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demonstrated a clear link between recent settlement patterns in all the reviewed innercity areas, on the one hand, and the changing nature of household and family relations in their host countries, on the other. The answer to the second question is much more context-dependent. The only common underpinning is that, generally, all four cities are still undergoing dynamics of counterurbanisation, which are taking out the middleage cohorts from the inner city. However, this process is weakening very rapidly in Leipzig, which has the added advantage of east German in-migration and international immigration. Although Bologna still has sizeable suburbanisation and counterurbanisation movements, it too has benefited from the influx of migrants from other parts of Italy and overseas. Leoń and Ljubljana are in a considerably more difficult position because they lack a sufficiently strong gravitational pull to offset the continued seepage of population to their hinterlands. Ljubljana has the added problem of low foreign immigration. As a result, while Leipzig and Bologna have begun to experience positive migration balances in recent years, Leoń and Ljubljana are still continuing to lose their residential population through net out-migration. Still, this aggregate picture hides a number of more intricate trends in the smaller spatial units. It has emerged that all four cities possess some areas with positive migration balances, which are concentrated in the urban core and inner city of Bologna, the inner city of Leipzig and peripheral innercity parts of Leoń and Ljubljana (while suburban and exurban settlements are gaining population through in-migration in Ljubljana, Bologna and Leoń alike). This means that the scale and scope of analysis can make a significant conceptual difference in terms of understanding the migratory aspects of reurbanisation. It is also important to note that inner-city population gains are being increasingly driven by international immigrants, who have become an indispensable part of the urban landscape. The policymakers’ desire to rejuvenate and repopulate declining inner-city districts would be

seriously endangered without the constant influx of working-age adults from overseas countries. Some cities—most notably, Bologna—possess complex layers of international immigrants, whose presence in particular parts of the city is contingent on a broader array of social factors, including economic status and housing tenure. Taken together, these trends lead to the conclusion that reurbanisation has two main demographic driving-forces: the rising concentration of non-traditional household structures in the inner city; and the diversification and intensification of migration movements, particularly the growth of overseas immigration. These two components are represented unevenly both among the various cities and within them, creating fragmented urban landscapes without strong spatial segregation patterns. Even though social polarisation may still be present, it is now much more pronounced at the level of micro scales (individual dwellings, buildings), rather than larger units such as neighbourhoods or districts. However, in addition to being multifaceted, reurbanisation is also multidirectional. This is because reurbanisation-related developments are unfolding against the background of a wider range of socioeconomic flows of varying direction and content: suburbanisation and counterurbanisation, social segregation, inand out-migration from/to the host country and intraurban migration, to name a few. It is thus very difficult to conjure a single classification of the study cities in terms of their ‘level’ of reurbanisation, in response to the third research question posed above. Still, we can state that Leipzig—and to a certain extent, Bologna—are in a more advanced stage of reurbanisation compared with Ljubljana and Leoń, because they possess a wider palette of non-traditional and immigrant households, alongside ‘splintered’ segregation patterns and migration flows. However, the future of Leipzig’s reurbanisation remains ‘fragile’, as it is still unclear whether its underlying trends are a long-term development. The broader purpose of this paper has been to open out the urban socio-spatial


transformation/gentrification debates into the demographic contingencies of reurbanisation within medium-ranking cities (or mediumsized cities at the top of the urban hierarchy, such as Ljubljana) of European countries with differing levels of development. Based on the reviewed evidence, it can be concluded that reurbanisation has a wider socio-spatial extent than gentrification, because it involves a variety of multidirectional flows and sociodemographic strata, rather than the concentrated spatial agency of a specific social class. Unlike gentrification, which affects only selected parts of the urban tissue and is associated with specific social groups and economic processes, reurbanisation is taking place throughout the inner city and is mobilising a much broader range of populations. Indeed, it would be difficult to describe as ‘gentrification’ the massive influx of international immigrants, young families and students into the lower end of the housing markets of all four cities. This implies that gentrification accounts for only one component of the social transformation of the inner city; in demographic terms, it can be treated as a subset of reurbanisation. In this we would echo Petsimeris’ (2005) conclusion for several southern European cities, where he has found simultaneous ‘upward and downward’ trajectories of neighbourhood change, leading to the conclusion that gentrification is an important, but ‘rarely total’, force of urban change. The observed processes have deeply transformed the traditional working-class character of the surveyed inner-city quarters, which are now more socially diverse and spatially fragmented. As a whole, reurbanisation is ‘splintering’ and fluidising the urban socioeconomic landscape. The complexity of its institutional and spatial underpinnings underscores the need for developing a comprehensive theorisation of this emergent urban phenomenon, one that would take into account its specific demographic imprint. Notes 1.

Project duration November 2002 to October 2005; contract no. EVK4-2001-00171.

2.

3.

4.

5. 6. 7. 8.

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Non-married cohabiting couples, also connected to the second demographic transition, have been omitted from the analysis due to the lack of consistent data. ‘Medieval’ and ‘turn-of-the-century’ refer to the historical periods when these districts were founded, rather than the construction ages of the wide variety of buildings in them. Notwithstanding the slight decrease in the total number of households in Leipzig between 1991 and 1996. Analyses of household numbers during this period are hampered by the change in statistical systems, the lack of up-to-date census data as well as changes of administrative borders. Official data sources do not point to a clear tendency in the number of households in Leipzig between 1989 and 1997, even though the city lost about 85,000 inhabitants during this period. But there is clear evidence for the general tendency described – increasing numbers of households in spite of population decline – both during the 1980s and again from 1998 onwards (see also Municipality of Leipzig, 2004, p. 10). Interview with Josef Fischer, Director of Leipzig Statistical Office, 1 March 2004. As defined by local planning documents. Interview with Leipzig West management, 21 April 2004. Interview with Dialog NGO, 21 April 2004.

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