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SPECIAL REPORT: CLIMATE CHANGE HITS HOME

LIFE ON THE EDGE

As seas and temperatures rise, Cape Codders battle against erosion and brace for the future

A cottage colony in East Sandwich faces off against Cape Cod Bay in an ongoing erosion battle. STEVE HEASLIP/CAPE COD TIMES

protect their home through a joint project with the town, which was responsible for fixing the landing. Still, they are living under the protection of a porous barrier of rocks and sand, a system that is ultimately “designed to fail,” Carol said. “The power of the water is like nothing you can conjure up in your imagination,” she said. The phenomenon of sea level rise, combined with more intense storms, has damaged scores of properties since development exploded on Cape Cod about 60 years ago, raising insurance rates by double digits and causing homeowners and government officials to pour millions of dollars into a losing effort to protect the coastline. And it’s only going to get worse. “What we’re seeing now as a result of climate change is a much greater change than what we’ve seen in the last thousands of years, and the changes that we have are just going to increase in the future,” said S. Jeffress Williams, a U.S. Geological Survey research marine geologist.

By Mary Ann Bragg and K.C. Myers [email protected] [email protected]

On a winter night two years ago, Tom and Carol Edmonson were sitting inside their modest bayside home at the end of Ellis Landing in Brewster during a storm so powerful that waves ripped out 25 feet of asphalt from the nearby town landing in just 10 minutes. Without the landing protecting the flank of their property, water flooded around their retaining wall and hit their house at an angle, taking out about 32 feet of foundation. “It was completely terrifying,” Carol said. “The force of the wind was such that we literally couldn’t leave the building.” It wasn’t until the next day that they realized the extent of the damage to their property. By then, pipes outside froze and the indoor temperature dipped below freezing. The Edmondsons have lived on the edge since. After two years they recently won Conservation Commission approval to

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SEE CLIMATE, A6

Carol and Tom Edmondson, of Brewster, have dealt with the aftermath of punishing winter storms that have battered their home near the town’s Ellis Landing for years. MERRILY CASSIDY/CAPE COD TIMES

INSIDE

ONLINE

THE SERIES

■ Skeptics of climate change say scientific

■ Videos: Watch an

predictions don’t warrant government overreach. A7 ■ Graphics show rising sea level, temperatures and precipitation. A6, A7, A8 ■ Woods Hole scientists and researchers share their knowledge of climate change. IDEAS & OPINION, B4 and B5

overview that introduces the special series and hear from a climate change skeptic. ■ Photo gallery ■ Interactive graphics: A three-minute history of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide, a cause of global warming ■ Read the whole series and more on climate change: capecodtimes.com/ climatechange.

DAY 1: Why does climate change matter? And who doesn’t believe it’s happening? DAY 2: The economic impact of climate change and its effect on your health DAY 3: Erosion is battering the Cape’s shores. What’s being done to combat it? DAY 4: Cape scientists travel the globe to research climate change. DAY 5: Who’s trying to protect our coastal communities? Is it working?

Saturday, January 1,

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Cape Cod Times | capecodtimes.com

IDEAS&OPINION

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Sea-level rise and Cape

Consequences of carbon

CLIMATE CHANGE AND CAPE COD

with the by the ocean interferes The carbon absorbed produce shells, by which shellfish that calcification process shellfishing industry endangering Massachusetts’ dollars annually to the state. brings in nearly a half-billion

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COMING TOMORROW Hole sciTwo more Woods entists add their thoughts plus about climate change editorial the Cape Cod Times ways to board recommends here in address climate change Massachusetts.

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all occurred United States have than 1 degree with a warming of less how bad Celsius. Do we appreciate is? climate change already 0.75 Today the Earth is about a result as degrees Celsius warmer and of greenhouse gas emissions, know to almost another ou probably already about it’s committed even if all what you need to know for 0.75 degrees Celsius today. The stopped were climate change -- except emissions results from how bad it already is. committed warming catching Ask the citizens of Oklahoma the ocean’s temperature been living in temperature. So and Texas, who have on end. Or up with surface air reaching the flood waters for weeks we’re not very far from West ask those in the American from. 2 degree Celsius warming. coming if we were concerned try What where their water is ave experienced change to Cape Cod may not h enough about climate we do? How predicted to the weather extremes to stop it? What could l t f il By Richard Houghton

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$1.5 billion to the Massachusetts of the value economy. With so much a collapse or from scallops alone, due to ocean decline of that fishery severe have acidification would for Massaeconomic consequences chusetts and our region. year by rise this he problem of sea-level Research published in "Nature has, justifiably, received Ekstrom and others but regional widespread attention, the Climate Change" examined depenchange on the effects of climate sensitivity and economic ocean acidififound and includes also shellfish on oceans dence and ocean with the cation, ocean warming oxygen). southern Massachusetts of due to having deoxygenation (loss highest sensitivity factors will revenues in the shellfish highest These three ongoing the the fishing number have grave effects upon not only in U.S., the second highestthe fourth and and shellfish industries, American of shellfish licenses the of seafood our region and along highest proportion but throughshellfish. and Canadian coasts, U.N. report revenues coming from state Reps. out the world. A recent Understanding this, l b k t Thomas A. Stone

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LAWRENCE SEIL/ GATEHOUSE MEDIA

Still much to learn about ocean’s impact continue to conditions that, if they increased an Carol Anne Clayson develop, will create here in the Scientist in the Physical probability of ice storms Oceanography Department winter. In Northeast this fall and at the Woods Hole the day-toaddition to governing th weather Oceanographic Institution day and month-to-mon variability we are accustomed lived, such or anyone who has to, they can also influence and heat near worked or vacationed water, extremes as drought, flood, of to intensify the ocean, the dance waves that are expected what is for some wind and sun can make of us, as climate change redefines Some world. the images. memorable normal around the basic but also see the however, can't help Although we understand and gases like interactions, dance of water, heat between importance of these be learned. Our carbon dioxide flowing there is still much to that wind speed, the ocean and the atmosphere knowledge about how short-term characterisdrives our planet's humidity, and other relate climate. atmosphere long-term and lower weather tics of the ways the moisture, The ocean is in many the global to the exchange of heat,between of main planetary driver largest momentum, and gases needs to world’s the is It atmosphere and climate. ocean and the sun and reservoir of heat from supplies the improve. These fundamental are difficult it of water. As a result, often minute exchanges the middle in water vapor that vast majority of the to measure, especially remote our freshwater the ultimately provides of a hurricane and in and hostile Southern here on land.

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Obituaries ......................A5, D7 Cape & Islands .................... B1 Sports .................................. C1 Crossword ...........................C8

At Home................................D1 TV Etc...................................D4 Advice...................................D8 Business................................E1

Real Estate............................F1 Automotive .......................... F8 ©2015

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CLIMATE CHANGE HITS HOME

CLIMATE

From Page A1

Provincetown Island?

Massachusetts is already seeing the changes in climate because of global warming, with rising air and sea temperatures, reduced snowpack and earlier snow melting, according to the 2011 Massachusetts Climate Change Adaptation Report. By 2100, in worst-case scenarios, the average air temperature in Massachusetts could increase by 5 to 10 degrees, with several more days of extreme heat during the summer, according to the report. Sea surface temperatures are predicted to increase by 8 degrees and winter precipitation mostly in the form of rain is expected to increase by 12 percent to 30 percent, according to the 2011 report. On the coastline, seas are predicted to rise by a foot by the end of the century. But other phenomenon, such as the heat-induced expansion of the oceans, the melting of ice on land such as Greenland and the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could compound the rate of sea level rise. Under high-emission scenarios, the sea level rise from all those factors could be 6 feet, according to the 2011 report. At that level, low elevation areas such as the Pamet River valley in Truro could flood and turn Provincetown into an island. The marshes of Barnstable Harbor could be swamped. The Shining Sea Bikeway in Falmouth would likely be underwater. And the shape of the Cape, ever-evolving thanks to the peninsula’s shifting sands, could see an even more dramatic change as the coast is hit with more energetic waves from deeper and deeper seas. “It’s going to touch absolutely everything,” said Ed DeWitt, executive director of the Association to Preserve Cape Cod. “Particularly on Cape Cod, where we are sticking out in the ocean. To the ocean storms, we’re saying ‘Hit me.’ To sea level rise, we’re saying ‘Keep it coming.’”

Cape Cod National Seashore Superintendent George Price stands outside the Herring Cove Beach bathhouse in Provincetown, which was built in 2013 and specifically designed to withstand winds up to 150 mph and rising seas. STEVE HAINES/CAPE COD TIMES

a wake-up call to look at the Cape’s lowest areas. “It wasn’t even a hurricane but the fact that the sea level had gone up a foot in the last century,” said geologist Tom Stone of Woods Hole Research Group. “New York City, they had a 14-foot storm surge. That was a foot higher than the previous records. This one additional foot of storm surge enabled the water to go into the subways and created all the damage there.”

The trouble with insurance

Greenhouse gases at work

The earth has had multiple cooling and warming periods in the past several million years, according Graham Giese, a coastal geologist at the Center for Coastal Studies. At the height of the last ice age, about 23,000 years ago, worldwide sea levels were much lower than they are today. As global temperatures warmed, due to natural processes, the ice sheet retreated, leaving behind deposits that created the land mass known as Cape Cod. Seas were rising, too, because of melting ice, causing waves to crash against the eastern Cape shoreline. The eroded sediment moved first in a southward direction and then by 6,000 years ago, when Georges Bank to the east was covered with water, it pushed in a northward direction, creating the Provincetown hook. “This wasn't due to any human effects,” Giese said of the erosion of waves and the movement of sediment along the Cape shorelines for the past 10,000 years. “Now, however, for the past approximately 200 years, the rate of global sea level rise has increased as a result of human activities.” Human-generated sea level rise has increased the submergence of land, such as on Nantucket, Giese said.

Tom Edmondson surveys the damage caused to his Brewster home and the parking lot at Ellis Landing following a winter storm in February 2013. CAPE COD TIMES FILE

Warming sea temperatures in Woods Hole Variance from the annual mean temperature 2.0

Annual mean temperature 1945-2014: 52.5°

1945

53.05°

2°

1.5 1.0

.55°

0.5 0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5

-.55° 1945

Figures are in degrees Fahrenheit

51.95° 1945 ’50

’55

’60

-2.29°

’65

’70

’75

’80

’85

’90

’95 2000

’05

’10 ’14

Note: Data not available for 1993, 1994, 1995 and 2012 Source: Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries

Deeper waters also increase wave energy, which in turn increases erosion of the Cape’s coastlines. “That sculpting work has increased in tempo,” he said. The beginnings of global warming have been traced to the 1700s and 1800s with the first Industrial Revolution, where the use of coal, the explosion of railroads and the practice of land-clearing led to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Since that time, scientists have said that industrialization had the potential to provoke climate change, either by excessive cooling due to the reflection

GATEHOUSE MEDIA

of sunlight from pollution or excessive warming due to greenhouse gases. In the 1970s, 30-year global temperature records, severe winter storms and temporary increases in ice and snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere raised people’s concerns about cold weather, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program. At that time, national magazines and newspapers ran stories about a global cooling trend. “It’s now understood that that’s not happening,” U.S. Geological Survey Chief Scientist Walter Barnhardt said. Since then, more and more

evidence has suggested the earth is warming due to greenhouse gases and by the 1990s scientists were pointing to “human-caused climate change” to describe the challenge facing the planet. Mary Lou Petitt was on the county’s Assembly of Delegates in the late ’80s and early ’90s. She remembers when “climate change” was first mentioned. “It’s sort of a flickering memory, as we reviewed budget items, we did try to be a little visionary,” she said. “I do remember the discussion. That’s when everybody was talking climate change, and there was still a lot of denial. There was a comment that, ‘If it’s true what they’re saying about climate change, we have to be prepared and thinking about that.’”

Power of the sea The changing coastline is not new, but the rate of change, and the intensity of the coastal damage, has increased in recent years. Beachgoers now use the new Herring Cove Beach bathhouse, built in 2013, in the Cape Cod National

Seashore in Provincetown, a structure specifically designed to withstand the effects of rising seas, 150 mph winds and dune migration. Herring Cove Beach is predicted to erode more than 2 feet a year due to wave action, according to a 2013 assessment. As early as the 1950s, after the state removed dunes to provide better views, the beach erosion was occurring at an “alarming” rate, according to the assessment. In 2011, winter storms caused an old asphalt sea wall to break up in front of the bathhouse and a northern parking lot. Temporary repairs to the parking lot, which cost $280,000 in 2015, continue to be made each winter, but the National Park Service is looking to move the lot back from the shoreline when funding becomes available. The story is the same throughout the Cape and Islands — parking lots crumbling, houses falling into the ocean, roads breached, waterways opened or closed — all because of the power of a storm-tossed sea. Hurricane Sandy, which hit in 2012 in New Jersey, and its aftermath has served as

Coastal residents aren’t the only ones to feel the effects of climate change. Anyone who owns a home, restaurant, hotel or commercial building can tell you how quickly insurance rates have been rising. In 2013, at least 7,164 homeowners were added to the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s flood map, according to the Cape Cod Commission. In Dennis alone, 4,000 properties were added. Now one-third of the town is within the flood zones on FEMA maps, said Daniel Fortier, the Dennis town planner. Many of these people now will be required to buy flood insurance for the first time — at an average of $700 a year, according to FEMA — and others will see flood insurance rate increases of 10 percent to 25 percent a year for the foreseeable future, said Bob Bouchie, owner of Robert E. Bouchie Jr. Insurance Agency Inc. in Cataumet. This will help pay down FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program’s estimated $24 billion debt. Some homeowners have a hard time finding anyone to offer insurance. Beginning in 2003, the number of people using the state’s FAIR Plan, known as the insurer of last resort, began to increase dramatically when other insurance companies pulled out of the coastal communities, according to the state Division of Insurance. The FAIR plan wrote policies for 44.3 percent of the Cape and Islands homeowners in 2013. The insurance costs have sent ripples through the Cape and Islands’ economy,

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Skeptics question predictions from scientists, government regulation

Some who aim to debunk climate change theories say global warming ‘not a crisis’

By Christine Legere

[email protected]

Shrugging off labels like “deniers,” they prefer to be called “skeptics” of the scientific consensus on climate change. Many acknowledge the climate is changing, and some agree human activity is playing at least a small role. But these skeptics question the accuracy of predictions from the majority of the scientific community that say if human activities accelerating global warming aren’t curbed — such as industries that spew carbon dioxide and other pollutants into the atmosphere — the impact on human health and the environment will be disastrous. Skeptics argue science does not support that position, nor does it warrant regulatory measures such as the Clean Power Plan, a joint effort by President Barack Obama and the Environmental Protection Agency, to lower carbon emissions. Those who contest the climate science behind the regulations warn this meddling by the government will result in loss of jobs, spiking utility costs for consumers, and an expenditure of billions of dollars by states that must meet the federal carbon-cutting timetable. The regulations require a 32 percent cut in power plant emissions from 2005 levels by 2030. States must provide initial plans for how they’ll reach those goals by September 2016, with final plans by 2018. Required changes will hit states that rely on coal production for electricity particularly hard. On Aug. 3, when President Obama and the EPA rolled out final rules for implementation of the Clean Power Plan, Mitch McConnell, a Republican from the coal-mining state of Kentucky and the U.S. Senate Majority Leader, tweeted, “Do you want your energy bill increased by double digits? Under the new energy regulations from the White House, that’s a real possibility.” McConnell warned in a second tweet, “These White House energy regulations would mean fewer jobs, shuttered power plants and higher electricity costs for families and businesses.” He referred to the rules as “An EPA Power Grab.” The EPA’s Clean Power Plan rules were published in the Federal Register on Friday, triggering a flurry of appeals. One of those is a combined action from 22 states, led by coal-producing West Virginia, and filed in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, that contends the EPA has gone beyond its bounds set in the Constitution. The group also plans to ask the court to suspend enactment of the Clean Power Plan until the appeal is settled.

Influencing legislation

The debate about climate change among federal lawmakers follows party lines, with most of the Republicans opposing governmentinstituted climate change measures. They use data produced by conservative think tanks, such as The Heartland Institute, which promotes market-driven solutions to government involvement. Joseph Bast, Heartland’s co-founder, president and CEO, recently wrote on the organization’s website, “Global warming … is not a crisis.” He added, “The benefits of a moderate warming are likely to outweigh the costs.” James Inhofe, a Republican from Oklahoma who is chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, may be the

Climate change glossary Climate change: any substantial change in measures of climate such as temperature or precipitation lasting for decades or longer. Climate change may result from natural factors and processes or from human activities. In the last approximately 200 years, climate changes due to human activities are seen as trapping more and more heat in the atmosphere, leading to higher air temperatures near the Earth’s surface, altering weather patterns and raising the temperatures of oceans. Global warming: a term often used interchangeably with “climate change” but they are not entirely the same thing. Global warming refers to an average increase in the temperature of the atmosphere near the Earth’s surface. Greenhouse gases: gases that trap heat in the lower part of the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases. Since the Industrial Revolution in the 1700s and 1800s, people have added significant amounts of these gases to the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels and by clearing forests. The gases can remain in the atmosphere for a decade to thousands of years.

U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Chairman Sen. James Inhofe, R-Oklahoma, a climate change critic, brought a snowball onto the Senate floor in February in an attempt to denounce global warming. ASSOCIATED PRESS FILE PHOTOS

Sea level change Boston Monthly mean sea level Data established by NOAA Average seasonal cycle removed

U.S. Rep. Edward Markey, D-Mass., says, “For years, we’ve know that fossil fuel interests have sought to block action in Congress on climate change.”

nation’s most high-profile skeptic, with his widely publicized snowball toss during a Senate hearing last winter to demonstrate that winters are still cold, despite reports of warming climate. The senator has published his own book aiming to debunk theories of climate change, titled “The Greatest Hoax: How the Global Warming Conspiracy Threatens Your Future.” Inhofe, who frequently serves as keynote speaker at Heartland’s conferences on climate change, was awarded the 2015 Political Leadership on Climate Change Award at the Heartland Institute’s Tenth International Conference on Climate Change. H. Sterling Burnett, a research fellow on energy and the environment at Heartland, said his organization works with legislators all the time, “and we have more contacts every year. We help with their education.” Burnett argues that those who warn of climate change impacts are basing their conclusions on “projections and models” that have not played out as predicted. “For 18 years, there has been no temperature rise, even though there’s been a rise in carbon dioxide,” Burnett said. “Their models projected more temperature change. Are you going to believe the models or reality?” “They talk about droughts,” Burnett said. “They are no more intense or longer than the ones we’ve had in the past. They say hurricanes should be happening in higher numbers and with more intensity, but numbers and intensity are down. These are the kinds of things that make Heartland skeptical.” The Washington-based Cato Institute also promotes climate skepticism. “We’re not skeptical about human influence on climate change, so we’re part of the 97 percent consensus,” said Paul

Knappenberger, Cato’s assistant director of the Center for the Study of Science. “We’re skeptical it will rise to the level of problem that will require the government getting involved.” Cato’s role in the debate is to influence legislation, Knappenberger said. “We hold seminars and press briefings on Capitol Hill and we’ve given professional testimony,” he said. “I’d like to think Cato has an impact. We’re putting out our philosophical and scientific take on it.”

‘We need bolder steps’ U.S. Sen. Edward Markey, D-Mass., a member of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works led by Inhofe, says skeptics invariably have ties to the fossil fuel industry. The same people in Congress who deny climate change and say pollution reduction targets can’t be reached are the same people allied with fossil fuel companies who have a vested interest in blocking action, Markey said. “Even when the harsh reality of climate change made 2014 the hottest year on record, Republicans in Congress started off 2015 by trying to pass the oil industry’s pipe dream to build the Keystone XL pipeline that would speed up the warming of the planet,” Markey wrote in an email. “For years, we’ve known that fossil fuel interests have sought to block action in Congress on climate change and have denied the science.” Heartland’s Burnett countered that “the vast majority of donations are from foundations.” Although the organization might be hired by big business to conduct studies, “They are coming to us for our views. They don’t direct our views.” Green initiatives begun in Massachusetts under former Gov. Deval Patrick, such as the Global Warming Solutions Act and Green Communities Act,

12 10 Aug. 8 4.3” 6 4 1921 2 -3.7” 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 Figures are in inches -10 -12 1921 ’30 ’40 ’50 ’60 ’70 ’80 ’90 ’00 ’10 Source: NOAA.gov GATEHOUSE MEDIA

have put the state in a good position for compliance with the federal regulations. But environmental watchdogs have wondered whether those initiatives will continue to move forward under Republican Gov. Charlie Baker. The Global Warming Solutions Act of 2008 calls for cutting carbon emissions by 25 percent from 1990 levels by 2020. A Baker spokesman said the governor is fully invested in pursuing clean energy solutions. “The administration is committed to meeting Massachusetts’ climate change goals by pursuing a diversified energy portfolio that is both cost-effective for ratepayers and environmentally conscious, and continues to work as part of the ninestate Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative to meet the goals set forth in the Global Warming Solutions Act,” said Peter Lorenz, communications director for the Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs. Climate watchdogs want to believe that. “We’re hopeful but it’s too early to know the entire picture,” said George Bachrach, president of the Environmental League of Massachusetts. “Governor Baker has proposed raising the metering cap to increase solar production until tax credits end in December 2016. It’s worrisome the proposal changes thereafter to make solar production not economical.” Bachrach added that Baker recently proposed importation of hydroelectricity in bulk, which his organization supports, “but we’ve always proposed a combination of hydro with onshore wind.” David Ismay, clean energy and climate change staff attorney for the Conservation Law Foundation, said Baker “is going in the right direction but in incremental steps.” “We need bolder steps,” Ismay said. “The way to

encourage business is to get rid of caps and commit to solar energy or lift the caps far enough that solar operations know that for the next five years to eight years they’ll have business.” Ismay said the Foundation supports the hydropower proposal, but with reservations. “While hydropower is better than coal, there are concerns about the health of the ecosystem,” he said. “When reservoirs are created, they release methane from decomposition.”

Cape skeptic: ‘It will be disastrous’ Meanwhile, the Cape has its own climate change skeptic: Bruce Everett, a Chatham resident who worked as an ExxonMobil executive for 22 years and is an adjunct professor teaching energy economics at Tufts University’s Fletcher School, is an outspoken climate change skeptic. “Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant or poison; it’s plant food,” Everett said. “We don’t understand climate nearly enough to say, ‘If we keep burning fossil fuels, it will be disastrous.’ That’s just an opinion.” The use of fossil fuels, Everett said, is fundamental to the country’s economics. Everett said those who disagree with the government’s position on climate change are being criticized as “getting in the way of people trying to get out of a burning building.” His suggestion is to let the market solve the emissions problem. “Even if we didn’t change policy, natural gas is so inexpensive, it’s driving coal out of the market,” he said. “This is market-driven. As long as we continue to build pipelines to move gas, this will happen anyway.” East Orleans resident David Fisher, professor emeritus of geo- and environmental science at the University of Miami, agrees with Everett’s statement that carbon dioxide is a plant food, but adds that’s not really a good thing. “Weeds are also plants,” Fisher said. “More weeds mean more insects and the need for more insecticides. This is exactly what NStar (Eversource) is doing now and it will be on the increase.” To Everett’s arguments that the Earth has seen multiple climate swings over thousands of millions of years, Fisher points out, “What’s important here is it’s warming over decades.” — Follow Christine Legere on Twitter: @CLegereCCT.

Fossil fuels: energy sources like oil, coal and natural gas, all finite in quantity, that were formed when prehistoric plants and animals died and were gradually buried by layers of rock. Burning coal, oil or natural gas produces carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide: the primary greenhouse gas emitted through human activities such as burning of oil, natural gas and coal. In 2013, carbon dioxide accounted for about 82 percent of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Carbon dioxide is naturally present in the atmosphere. Greenhouse effect: As more greenhouse gases are added to the atmosphere, more heat is trapped. This extra heat leads to higher air temperatures near the Earth’s surface, alters weather patterns and raises the temperature of the oceans. These changes affect people and the environment in important ways. For example, sea levels are rising, glaciers are melting and plant and animal life cycles are changing.

Sea level rise: the increase in mean sea level over time. Global sea level is expected to increase with humaninfluenced climate change due to the expansion of water as its temperature rises, changing water currents and the melting of ice on land, such as Greenland. In Massachusetts, these factors are further amplified by a sinking of the land due to adjustments from the last Ice Age.

Storm surge: the rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tides. Ocean acidification: Oceans absorb a lot of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In the ocean, carbon dioxide reacts with seawater to form carbonic acid, causing the ocean to become more acidic. As more and more carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere, with humaninfluenced climate change, the ocean will continue to become more acidic. Increasing acidity will make it harder for corals to build skeletons and for shellfish to build the shells they need for protection. Adaptation: adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected effects of humaninfluenced climate change, by either mitigating harm or benefiting from opportunities.

—Sources: epa.gov; energy. gov; globalchange.gov; mass.gov; rockymountainclimate.org; ipcc.ch

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CLIMATE

The story is the same throughout the Cape and Islands — parking lots crumbling, houses falling into the ocean, roads breached, waterways opened or closed, all because of the power of a storm-tossed sea.

From Page A6

according to experts. "Real estate is vital to the Cape Cod economy. It underpins everything else — tourism, marine, health care,” said Ryan Castle, chief executive officer of the Cape Cod & Islands Association of Realtors & MLS. “And that's because land and real estate is the driving force behind the economy and all industries,” Castle said. “A house is simply where a job goes to sleep at night." Rick Murray, owner of the Crown & Anchor, an oceanfront inn and entertainment complex in Provincetown, said his insurance has gone up at least 20 percent in the last 10 years. Yet, even as prices rise, people will still come to exposed beach towns because they are remote and close to Mother Nature, Murray said. “Everyone realizes we’re an isolated destination,” he said. “That has it’s pluses and minuses.”

60

2014

1831

47°

45.5°

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

Figures are in degrees Fahrenheit

10 0 ’31 1850

1900

1950

2000 ’14

2014

55”

1886

47”

20

Figures are in inches

10 0 ’31 1850

1900

1950

2000’14

Notes: Temperature and precipitation data from 1885 to present observed on the summit of Great Blue Hill in Milton. Temperature averages derived from a 24-hour corrected mean. Temperature data before 1885 were derived from two nearby locations in Milton and Canton and adjusted to the Blue Hill summit location.

Source: Blue Hill Observatory Science Center (www.bluehill.org/observatory) GATEHOUSE MEDIA

‘Relocation is an inevitability’

Of the options ahead for the Cape regarding erosion, there are three, according to the marine geologist Williams: nourishing beaches in the short term, hardening structures designed to protect private property or moving away from the shoreline. “I think relocation is an inevitability as we move into the future,” he said. “The Seashore has been a leader in this.” The $5 million bathhouse at Herring Cove Beach replaces a 1950s-era bunker style bathhouse, and is designed in modules with four shingled cottages, about 400 to 600 square feet each, sitting on pilings and connected with wide decks. To combat rising seas, fierce winter storms and to allow for natural dune

Annual precipitation

Annual temperature

“We always talk about climate change in terms of the future, but it is here now,” says Ed DeWitt, executive director of the Association to Preserve Cape Cod. CAPE COD TIMES FILE

migration, the new bathhouse was built at least 100 feet from the edge of the coast and raised about 4 feet. The modular design could make it possible to move the buildings even farther back. The posts for the trellis can withstand 150 mph winds. "This will still be standing," National Park Service architect Amy Sebring said in 2013 with her hand on a trellis post, somewhat jokingly, as she predicted other structures in town would be flattened. Sebring was the lead designer for the Herring Cove bathhouse. “We have directors’ orders to look very seriously at climate change,” she said last month.

Sometimes giving is better than receiving. On his 6th birthday, Sammy learned how good it feels to help other kids.

FUNdraising Ideas for Kids www.thehome.org/kids

“We are looking at sea level rise. We are basically looking at all our facilities, making them as resilient and sustainable as we can. It’s not just this project. It’s all projects.” The Herring Cove Beach bathhouse is one of the few public buildings on Cape Cod, possibly the only one, specifically designed to withstand the effects of global warming and to be moved back away

from the shoreline as needed. Others examples of fighting erosion are more temporary solutions, such as Geotubes used to stop erosion on Nantucket and beach nourishment under consideration at Town Neck Beach in Sandwich. But is the Cape doing enough to prepare for climate change in the next 50 to 100 years? “What Cape Cod should

be doing and is not doing is putting together Cape Codwide, county and town plans on how to deal with climate change and the impacts of climate change,” Williams said. “There’s a lot of misinformation and lack of understanding by the general population. There is very strong scientific consensus that the climate is warming, mostly due to human activities and that the situation is going to get much more grave than what we have now. Most towns are doing very little.” The idea of planning for the next 50 to 100 years is unusual for a town. “It’s so far out,” Orleans Planning and Community Development Director George

Meservey said. “People are not feeling the need to make townwide regulation changes. The town plan is a 20-year plan.” As for the Edmondsons in Brewster, they have spent two years in commission meetings and thousands of dollars on engineering and storm repairs after that devastating winter storm. But Carol said if she could do it all over again, she would still buy on the water. “It’s been an adventure,” she said. — Follow Mary Ann Bragg on Twitter: @MaryAnnBraggCCT. — Follow K.C. Myers on Twitter: @KcmyersCCT.