Jun 4, 2018 - Steve Weygandt, Joe Olson, Jaymes Kenyon,. Ming Hu ..... that are not modeled well (for example, rapid convection and shear). ⢠Clear air ...
Improvements to ceiling/visibility/ turbulence/convection forecasts from the 2018 HRRR/RAP NOAA model and observations for improving N. American aviation forecasts
Stan Benjamin Steve Weygandt, Joe Olson, Jaymes Kenyon, Ming Hu, Terra Ladwig, Curtis Alexander NOAA Earth System Research Lab, Boulder, CO USA
Toronto Supersite
Continued Aviation Forecast Improvement …
Ismail Gultepe, M. Agelin-Chaab, (Env Canada) Wayne Feltz, Anthony Wimmers (NOAA/CIMSS, U. Wisconsin)
5h HRRR Forecast
Radar
Observations
EGU 2018 - Wien 13 April 2018
13km Rapid Refresh, 3km HRRR
(High-Res Rapid Refresh)
RAP
Hourly cycling model Advanced Radar and Cloud, Wind
Data Assimilation cycle
NOAA Hourly Updated Models Observations 13 April 2018
HRRR
HRRR- aviation-EGU
– basis for icing, turb, wind, ceiling, 2 etc forecasts in US
HRRR Users and Applications Example: National Weather Service including Storm and Weather Prediction Centers (SPC and WPC) Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and FAA Command Center National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) and Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Lincoln Laboratory (LL) General Forecasting Renewable Energy (wind/solar) Same-Day Decision Support
Renewable Energy (wind/solar) Day-Ahead Decision Support
Severe Weather
Severe Weather -Watches, Convective Outlooks
Severe Weather Day 2 Outlooks
QPF / hydro
Heavy rainfall/snowfall Heavy rainfall/snowfall watches, National Water Model Day 2 Outlooks
Aviation Tactical Planning
Aviation Strategic Planning 0–2 hr
13 April 2018
Why? GLERL-GSD IntroIntroRAP/HRRR chgs
Ceiling, visibility, icing Turbulence (CAT, mtn, conv) Convection, wind 2–8 hrs
8–15 hrs 15–24 hrs
Model ceiling Obs DACanada Exp design Wind/QPF - obs Data assim/ obs
24–48 hrs
HRRR- aviation-EGU
Forecast Length
Results Conclusions CIRES – Obs Impact – Benjamin/James Model-phys Subseas Plans Benjamin-HRRR Model Feltz sat turb HRRR future Benjamin-HRRR-aviation
3
RAP/HRRR: Hourly-Updating Weather Forecast Suite - June 2018 NCEP update 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAPv4) – to 39h (Jun 2018) Initial & Lateral Boundary Conditions
Initial & Lateral Boundary Conditions
3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Alaska (HRRR-AK) 36 hr (Jun 2018)
3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRRv3) – to 36h (Jun 2018) • More accurate • Runs longer (out to 36h) • Alaska domain added
13 April 2018
Intro Intro RAP/HRRR RAPv4/HRRRv3 chgs Datachgs assim/ ceiling Data assimilation Canada obs
HRRR- aviation-EGU
Model
Feltz Results sat turbHRRRv4 HRRR changes future
Benj-RE-HRRR Benjamin-HRRR-aviation
4
RAPv4/HRRRv3 common mods Data Assimilation
Larger impact for ceiling/vis/turb/conv/wind
Model
Land-surface/post
Merge with GSI trunk – Mar 2017
WRF-ARW v3.8.1+ incl. phys changes
New Observations for assimilation: Add AMVs over land and TAMDAR NCEP new VAD wind retrievals Add IASI, CrIS, SEVIRI radiances Use direct readout radiances (larger volume)
Physics changes: Thompson microphysics – improved ice clouds (not excessive) MYNN PBL update – better sub-grid clouds, EDMF (local/deep) mixing
Revised roughness lengt
Assimilation Methods: Revised PBL pseudo-obs –better winds/RH More ens weight in hybrid DA (0.85/0.15) Cloud building – smaller qc/qi, cloud CCN now specified, GOES/METAR build
