33. Snap Inc. stock prices in US$. Source: Yahoo Finance, as of February 21st 2018. The Q4 '17 Report is the first since
1
Digital technologies simplify our lives and open doors to unprecedented business opportunities. Innovative companies disrupt traditional industries and challenge their incumbents. This transformative power involves both opportunities and risks – for all of us. Regardless of whether we are eager or reluctant: We have to keep pace, otherwise we will be left behind. For the second time now, Statista has compiled the most relevant and recent data on the entire digital economy – a comprehensive overview of one of the hottest topics of our time. Since accurate data is a critical factor to decisionmaking processes in business, we have gathered a set of stunning facts, which are meant to inform and also to entertain. For the first time, our 2018 version features data from the biggest market research project Statista has ever conducted: The Global Consumer Survey. These insights clarify to what extent people love, adopt, or avoid the digital world.
The Digital Economy Compass presents facts about what we consider the industries’ most relevant topics and trends at the moment. In the first part, we cover global trends: Is voice control going to replace smartphones and touch-controlled
2
devices? How do digital giants like Google, Amazon or Tencent actually make money? What role does social media play? How can vertical platforms form new markets? – to mention only a few of our key issues.
The second part covers all relevant digital markets, their sizes, and business models. The result of our research is more than 200 slides on the global digital economy. In addition, we also provide a printer-friendly version of our slide deck. We are convinced that you will enjoy reading our Digital Economy Compass. Download your printer-friendly version here:
www.statista.io/decprinter
Dr. Friedrich Schwandt (CEO)
So much happened in our digitalized world in 2017 – and we have the numbers behind it Things that happened online in 2017 within 60 seconds
>29 million >243,000 photos
uploaded
messages processed
>65,000
>350,000 tweets sent >210,000
photos uploaded
snaps uploaded
>120 new
accounts
>3.8 million search requests
60
>800,000
files uploaded
>25,000 posts on tumblr
seconds
>18,000 matches
>87,000 hours of videos watched
>1.5 million songs
streamed
>16,550 video views
>2 million
minutes of calls
>400 hours of video uploaded
3
Source: Go-Globe.com, Company Information, Statista Research
>156 million emails sent
Table of Contents: Global Trends Part 1
›
Hardware: Smartphones are the present but the future is beyond touch…………………………….. 6
›
Social Media: Users, influencers and advertisers are keen on one rising star………………..…….. 23
›
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet: U.S. tech leaders by their stunning numbers………………………… 41
›
Vertical Platforms: Everything that can become a platform, will become a platform…………… 83
›
Digital China: Two players do it all – explaining Chinese “Everything Companies”…………………. 111
4
Table of Contents: Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook Part 2 – exclusive Statista content
›
eCommerce ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 130
›
eServices …………………………….……………………………………………………………………………………………………... 149
›
eTravel ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 162
›
Digital Media ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 172
›
FinTech ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 181
›
Digital Advertising …………………………..…………………………………………………………………………................. 192
›
Smart Home ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 202
›
Connected Car …........................................................................................................................................ 211
5
Global Trend
Hardware Smartphones are the present but the future is beyond touch
In 2017, more than 3.5 billion people were connected to the internet – thanks to mobile devices. However, the stunning rise of smartphones is coming to an end. The number of shipments remained practically unchanged between 2016 and 2017: 1,472 million vs. 1,473 million. Most devices were sold in China, which accounted for about one in three smartphone purchases. As the Chinese market has constantly been growing over the past years, incumbent manufacturers like Samsung and Apple face a huge threat: Chinese producers, who are rapidly expanding their share in the home market. The top 4 vendors (Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo and Huawei) together accounted for 67% of the domestic
smartphone market in Q4, 2017.
Next to smartphones, more and more other mobile devices are equipped with a permanent internet connection, like smartwatches or fitness trackers. When integrated with a smartphone, a complete ecosystem emerges, which makes it possible to be online at all times. Manufacturers have already found the next big hit in the hardware market, which goes one step beyond touch control: smart speakers. Although the market is still small, customers are eager for these new devices, and mass market adoption is only a matter of time.
Hardware
Smartphone sales plateaued at around 1.4bn units Global smartphone shipments in million units
2.4% 1,437
1,473
1,468
2015
2016
2017
1,302 1,020
725 495 305
7
151
174
2008
2009
Source: IDC
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Hardware
Apple & Samsung stay the biggest smartphone manufacturers – but Samsung has lost 25% of its share Share of global smartphone shipments
18%
24%
19%
18%
8%
4% 5%
10% 6% 8%
49% 33%
Q1 ’15
8
Q2 ’15
Q3 ’15
Source: Counterpoint Research
Q4 ’15
Q1 ’16
Q2 ’16
Q3 ’16
Q4 ’16
Q1 ’17
Q2 ’17
Q3 ’17
other
Q4 ’17
Hardware
In China, domestic vendors have already taken over and account for 65% of smartphone shipments Share of smartphone shipments in China
Samsung
Apple
Others
Xiaomi
Huawei
1
15%
18% 17% Vendors: 64% market share
11%
5%
7%
Top 4 Vendors: 36% market share
Q1 ’15
9
1: Statista estimates for 4Q ’17 are based on prior years Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding Source: Counterpoint Research
Vendors: 35% market share
14% 19%
14%
Oppo
3%
9%
37%
Vivo
15%
17% Q4 ’17
Top 4 Vendors: 65% market share
Hardware
While smartphone sales stagnate, wearables sales are expected to grow by 13% annually1 Forecast of global wearables sales in million devices
504.7
+13%1 5.6
58.7
Body-worn camera 67.2
1.6 21.7
347.5 31.0 28.3
48.8
Other fitness monitors
22.3
Head-mounted display
Sports watch 63.9
Wristband
81.0
Smartwatch
206.0
Bluetooth headset
48.2
168.0
2018 10
1: CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate / average growth rate per year Source: Gartner
2021
Hardware
Wrist notifications and activity tracking are the most relevant smartwatch use cases Smartwatch owners that use the following functions daily
Notifications / Texts
54%
Activity tracking
45%
News updates
31%
Phone calls
26%
Alarm clock
25%
Email
25%
View photos / videos
21%
GPS / navigation
19%
Remote control for music Home automation
11
18%
14%
Based on a June 2017 survey among 5,000+ U.S. consumers aged 18+, of which 9% owned a smartwatch Source: NPD Connected Intelligence/WEAR
Hardware
By 2020 all mobile devices are expected to contain biometric technology1 Forecast share of devices sold worldwide with biometric technology1
Smartphones
Wearables
Tablets
100%
100% 100% 100%
96%
87%
83%
81% 64%
64% 55% 41%
40%
26%
2016
12
27%
2017
1: Sensors that measure body data, e.g. fingerprint scan, facial recognition Source: Acuity Market Intelligence
2018
2019
2020
[…] We believe voice is the most natural user interface and can really improve the way people interact with technology. Dawn Brun Public relations Senior Manager at Amazon
Hardware
20% already use smart speakers in the U.S. Usership and adoption of smart speakers in the U.S. Usership of smart speakers
Split by innovator adoption type1 Non-Users
Users
50%
54% 73%
79.5%
88%
20.5%
50%
97%
46% 27%
12% Usership, total population
14
Innovators
Early adopters
Early majority
“Do you own Smart Home devices – i.e. devices that you can control via a smartphone / an internet connection?“; Multiple response; n= 2,027 1: Respondents were categorized by the five innovator adoption types based on self-assessment in the Global Consumer Survey Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
Late majority
3% Laggards
Hardware
Google is the only considerable competitor for top dog Amazon Global smart speaker shipments in million devices
Q3’16
Q3’17
5.0
1.9
0.9 0.0 Amazon
15
Source: Gartner
Google
0.0
0.1
JD.com
0.0
0.1
Xiaomi
0.0
0.1
Alibaba Group
0.1
0.3
Others
Hardware
Google is eating away at Amazon Echo’s monopoly and has already reached a market share of 25% U.S. Smart Speaker market shares
U.S. Smart Speaker market share in Jun ‘17
U.S. Smart Speaker market share in Dec ‘17 Google Home
Google Home
18% 25%
6% Other 69% 82% Amazon Echo
16
Amazon Echo
Source: NPR & Edison Research Smart Audio Report, Spring / Summer 2017 and Fall / Winter 2017
Hardware
Product prices for smart speakers range from US$39 to US$399 U.S. retail prices of selected voice-enabled smart speakers
Google Apple Amazon Others
Smart speaker Built-in assistant Google Home Mini
Google Assistant
Amazon Echo Dot
Alexa
Amazon Echo (2nd Gen.)
Alexa
Google Home
Google Assistant
Amazon Echo Plus
Alexa
US$149.99
Harman Kardon Invoke
Cortana
US$149.95
Sonos One
Alexa
Apple Homepod
Siri
Google Home Max
Google Assistant
17
Prices from February 19th, 2018 Source: Company Websites
US$39.00 US$49.99 US$99.99 US$129.00
US$199.00 US$349.00 US$399.00
Hardware
Smart speakers do not primarily serve as direct sales channels – yet Smart speaker owners in the U.S. who use the device to do the following
General Questions
60%
Weather
57%
Stream music
54%
Timers / Alarms
41%
Reminders / To do
39%
Calender
27%
Home automation
27%
Stream news
22%
Find local businesses
16%
Playing games
14%
Order products Order food / services
18
11% 8%
Base: U.S. households equipped with smart speakers in Q1 2017 Source: comScore
Revenue-relevant usage
Hardware
Amazon‘s Alexa has more than 30,000 skills, many focusing on games and education Share of Amazon Alexa skills
Other1 19%
Smart Home
25%
Games, Trivia & Accessories
3%
Sport
3%
>30.000 skills
4%
Travel & Transportation
Productivity
13%
5%
Education & References 6%
News
Novelty & Humor
19
7%
7% 7%
Lifestyle
Music & Audio
1: Other includes: Health & Fitness, Local, Food & Drink, Business & Finance, Utilities, Movies & TV, Weather, Social, Shopping, Communication, Connected Car, Home Services Based on data from February 2018 Source: Amazon, Statista Estimates
Hardware
27% of Google assistant apps focus on Games & Fun Number of Google Assistant apps by category Games & Fun
483
Education & References
165
9%
Home Control
163
9%
Business & Finance
8%
135
Travel & Transportation
6%
111
Productivity
5%
89
Social & Communication
74
4%
Health & Fitness
73
4%
Food & Drink
67
4%
Shopping
65
4%
Movies, Photos & TV
65
4%
Arts & Lifestyle
62
Local Music & Audio
20
4% 3%
57 46
3%
News & Magazines
38
2%
Sports
38
2%
Weather
34
2%
Based on data from December 2017, total number of apps at the time: 1,766 Source: Voicebot.ai
27%
Hardware
Google Assistant outperforms competitors in all categories in terms of correctly answered queries Share of correctly answered questions by smart speakers from different categories
Google Assistant
Amazon Alexa
Microsoft Cortana
98%
92% 83%
76%
72%
81%
72%
66% 57%
47%
42%
15%
Location-based
72%
66% 66%
65%
62% 64%
21
Apple Siri
Commerce
Base: 782 queries directed at each of the speakers individually Source: Loup Ventures
12%
Navigation
Information
Command
52%
Hardware
More than 50% of smart speaker owners would appreciate the technology also in other situations Smart speaker owners interested in using the technology in other areas
In your car / vehicle
64%
On your phone
60%
On your television
53%
At your workplace
At places other than your home / work / car
22
35%
30%
“How interested would you be in having the smart speaker technology…?”, Answers “very interested” & “interested” considered; n= 1816 respondents who own a smart speaker Source: NPR & Edison Research
Global Trends
Social Media Users, influencers and advertisers are keen on one rising star
In 2004, Mark Zuckerberg started Facebook as a social network for Harvard students – a very exclusive club of people could communicate through the new service. Fourteen years later, a whole new industry has emerged, which changed the way we consume media, talk, chat and stay in touch with friends. Without doubt, Facebook is the most important player in this field, but by far not the only one. Similar platforms have developed, which address different kinds of purposes: business networks, instant messaging or photo sharing.
23
In the past year, it was especially Snapchat and Instagram that dominated the media: Snapchat caused a stir when Snap Inc. announced their IPO in March 2017, which raised expectations of shareholders as well as investors. Instagram for its part developed into the number one platform for influencers, with user numbers surging: It has become the rising social media star. We analyzed overall social media consumption and how people really use the services. Who are the users? How many of them actually like and share at all and how many just get their daily news?
Social Media
Most people use social media on a daily basis Frequency of social network usage in the U.S., the United Kingdom and Germany
U.S. 79%
75%
United Kingdom
73%
14%
15%
18%
3% Daily
24
Germany
Several times a week
5%
5%
Once a week
“How often do you use social networks like Facebook or Instagram?”; U.S. n=1,789, United Kingdom n=1,688, Germany n=1,427; respondents who use business networks, foto sharing, microblogging services and social networks regularly Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
2%
2%
3%
Several times a month
Social Media
More than 80% of millennials use social media actively Social media activities of internet users aged 18-29 in the past four weeks
U.S.
United Kingdom
Germany
Active use >80%
No/Passive use < 20%
64% 65% 56% 56%
53%
58%
56%
50% 44%
42%
38%
43%
39%
34%
26%
5% Commented on posts
25
Liked posts
Shared posts
Posted pictures / videos
Posted texts / status updates
9%
11%
I have used social networks only passively
“Which of these things have you done on social networks in the past 4 weeks?”; Multiple response; U.S.: n=10,150, United Kingdom n=10,129, Germany n=10,379 Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
3% 5% 5% I don’t use social networks
Social Media
Facebook dominates the social media landscape Largest U.S.-based social media networks and messengers by monthly active users in million
Facebook
other
Facebook
2,061
YouTube
1,500
WhatsApp
1,300
Facebook Messenger
1,300
Instagram
800
Tumblr Twitter
Snapchat1
26
368 328 255
1: Snap does not publish monthly active user numbers; figures are calculated based on the number of daily active users Based on data from August 2017 Source: Company Information, Techcrunch, Statista Research
There is a real value
in sharing moments that don’t live forever. Evan Spiegel Founder and CEO Snap Inc.
Social Media
Snapchat is the favorite social network for 54% of U.S. teenagers Share of U.S. teenagers who consider the following social networks their favorite 54% Snapchat
28%
10% 8% Spring 2015
28
Fall 2015
n=6,100 U.S. teenagers, average age 16 years Source: Piper Jaffray, Recode
Spring 2016
Fall 2016
Spring 2017
Fall 2017
Instagram
Facebook Twitter
Social Media
Snapchat is still growing, yet the increase in daily active users slowed down considerably in 2017 Number of daily active Snapchat users in millions
Rest of World
Europe1
North America2
30% 143 31%
122 106
54% 57
46 14 26
6
18 30
9
63 11 20 32
71 13 23 35
81 16 27 38
87 18 29
40
94 20 30
44
48
39
159 39
29
24 34
36
153
39
54
46
61
49
65
13%
166 40
52
55
68
71
174
178
42
44
57
57
75
77
187 47
60
80
Q1 ’14 Q2 ’14 Q3 ’14 Q4 ’14 Q1 ’15 Q2 ’15 Q3 ’15 Q4 ’15 Q1 ’16 Q2 ’16 Q3 ’16 Q4 ’16 Q1 ’17 Q2 ’17 Q3 ’17 Q4 ’17
29
1: Europe includes Russia and Turkey 2: North America includes Mexico and the Caribbean Source: Company Information
Social Media
Snapchat users are young, American, and snap a lot Average Snapchat user
Is most likely American
Is 18-24 years old
Has an iOS smartphone
Accounts for $1.53 in quarterly revenue
Uses Snapchat 18 times a day
Uses Snapchat over 30 minutes a day
30
Source: Snap
Spends 50% more on electronic devices than non-Snappers
The average Snapchat user Uses Snapchat at school (64%)
Uses Snapchat at home (81%)
Snaps from events (70%)
Social Media
Snap highly depends on North America, which is responsible for >75% of revenues Revenue in million US$ 1
North America
129 9.3%
31
166 1.6%
9.0%
3.6%
2
Europe
150 5.3% 8.7%
Rest of the World
182 6.6%
207 6.3%
12.1%
13.0%
285 9.1% 14.0%
89.1%
87.3%
86.0%
81.3%
80.7%
76.8%
Q3 ’16
Q4 ’16
Q1 ’17
Q2 ’17
Q3 ’17
Q4 ’17
1: North America includes Mexico and the Caribbean 2: Europe includes Russia and Turkey Source: Snap
Social Media
After a disastrous first quarter ’17, Snapchat seems to be recovering, but is still far from being profitable Revenue and net loss in million US$
Revenue
4 -99
33
17
5 -80
-97
-98
128
72
39 -105
Net loss
-116
-124
166
150
-170
182
208
-194 -443
285
-350
-2,209
Q1 ’15
32
Q2 ’15
Q3 ’15
Q4 ’15
Q1 ’16
Q2 ’16
Note: Q1 2017 losses caused by stock-based compensation to employees at time of IPO Source: Snap
Q3 ’16
Q4 ’16
Q1 ’17
Q2 ’17
Q3 ’17
Q4 ’17
Social Media
The Q4 ’17 Report is the first since Snaps IPO to see rising stock prices Snap Inc. stock prices in US$
28
IPO 03/02/2017
26 24
1. Quarterly Report 05/10/2017
22 20 2. Quarterly Report 08/10/2017
18 16
3. Quarterly Report 11/07/2017
14 12
4. Quarterly Report 02/06/2017
10 8 6 4 2 03/02/2017 33
Source: Yahoo Finance, as of February 21st 2018
02/21/.2018
Instagram was created because there was no single place dedicated to
giving your mobile photos a place to live and to be seen. Kevin Systrom Co-founder of Instagram
Social Media
While Snapchat is struggling, Instagram more than doubled their daily active users in five months Daily active users in million
Snapchat
Instagram
+150% 500
+13% 173
166
178
200
187
150 100
Q1 ’17
35
Q2 ’17
Source: Snap, Facebook
Q3 ’17
Q4 ’17
Oct ’16
Jan ’17
Apr ’17
Sep ’17
Social Media
Facebook‘s Snapchat clones beat the original Worldwide daily active users of Instagram Stories, WhatsApp Status and Snapchat in millions
Snap: 300
Facebook: Snapchat Instagram Stories 1
WhatsApp Status
300 Oct ‘17 300 Oct ‘17
250 200 150
187 Q4 ‘17
100
August 2, 2016 Launch of Instagram Stories
50 0 2015
36
2016
1: Snapchat‘s user numbers represent quarterly averages Source: Snap, Facebook
February 20, 2017 Launch of WhatsApp Status 2017
Social Media
Instagram has taken the lead over Snapchat in terms of new sign-ups Proportion of global new sign-ups
Snapchat
Instagram
53% 58% 63% 58% 55% 54% 63% 63% 63% 65% 65% 66% 67% 67% 66% 66%
42%
47% 42% 45% 46% 37% 34% 33% 33% 34% 34% 37% 35% 35% 37% 37%
Jan ’16
Feb ’16
37
Mar ’16
Source: Jumpshot
Apr ’16
May ’16
Jun ’16
Jul ’16
Aug ’16
Sep ’16
Oct ’16
Nov ’16
Dec ’16
Jan ’17
Feb ’17
Mar ’17
Apr ’17
39% 46% 43% 42%
62% 54% 57% 58%
May ’17
Jun ’17
Jul ’17
Aug ’17
Social Media
Instagram is the #1 influencer platform, all influencers use it Most important influencer platforms Share of influencers that use the platform 99.3%
70.2%
46.6%
42.2%
37.6%
27.1%
#1 Platform in 2017 and expected in 2018 2017
92.9%
2018
82.2%
Instagram
38
2.7% 1.7%
0.2% 1.2%
0.5% 1.0%
12.2% 3.2%
Facebook
Snapchat
Twitter
Youtube
n = 414 influencer Source; Hashoff Influencer Marketing Report Fall 2017
0.5% 1.7% Pinterest
Social Media
Instagram is gaining importance in advertising with already 2 million active advertisers Business profiles and active advertisers on Instagram
Number of business profiles in million
Number of active advertisers 25.0
2,000,000
15.0
500,000
1,000,000
200,000
8.0
1.5 Sep ’16
39
Mar ’17
Source: Company Information
Jul ’17
Nov ’17
Mar ‘16
Sep ‘16
Mar ‘17
Sep ‘17
Social Media
Instagram revenues expected to grow to US$9.5bn Projected revenue of Instagram in billion US$
9.1
9.5
8.4 7.0 5.4
3.2
1.1
2015
40
Source: Credit Suisse
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Global Trend
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet U.S. tech leaders by their stunning numbers
They are the providers of the most innovative technologies with mass market adoption, they have billions of daily active users, combined revenues of over US$500bn and a US$3 trillion market capitalization: Apple, Google (Alphabet), Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook shape the digital world like no other. They create new services and business models and successively expand into completely new industries. Due to their fast scalability, the “big five” have achieved a size and global reach that is impressive and frightening alike. Some examples? In 2016, Google generated more digital ad
revenues than the Chinese economy spent on digital ads in total. Apple is sitting on such a huge pile of overseas cash that they could buy every franchise of the Top 5 U.S. sports leagues – with a lot of money left to give to employees to watch some games. In August 2017, Amazon announced that about one in three U.S. internet users had become an Amazon Prime subscriber. We analyzed what these great companies earn their money with. Who are their cash cows and their rising stars? After this analysis one might ask: What would our everyday life look like if these companies did not exist?
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Tech companies take over the stock markets: In 2017 the Top 5 were valued at US$3.3 trillion Most valuable companies by market cap in billion US$ Traditional company
Top
1 2 3 4 5
42
Tech company
2001 US$1,527bn
2006 US$1,670bn
2011 US$1,519bn
2016 US$2,407bn
2017 US$3,328bn
US$372bn
US$447bn
US$406bn
US$609bn
US$861bn
US$327bn
US$383bn
US$377bn
US$539bn
US$730bn
US$300bn
US$294bn
US$275bn
US$483bn
US$660bn
US$273bn
US$274bn
US$234bn
US$402bn
US$564bn
US$255bn
US$272bn
US$227bn
US$374bn
US$513bn
Valuation based on data from December 31st of the respective year Source: morningstar.com, Financial Times, Statista research
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Combined revenues rose to ~US$650bn in 2017 Global annual revenue development in billion US$
648.7
526.8
554.0
436.8 386.6 346.6 267.8 193.2
38.4
45.2
55.2
68.3
84.9
107.3
139.2 150.3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
43
Note: Facebook revenues included as of 2007 Source: Company Information
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Revenues of each top 5 tech company have been skyrocketing over the past few years Global annual revenue development from 2002 to 2017 in billion US$
+3,922% 229.2 +4,423% 177.9 136.0
+27,625% +217%
110.9
90.0
89.5
+5,138% 40.7 27.6
28.4 5.7
44
0.4
Note: Facebook revenues included as of 2007 Source: Company Information
3.9
0.2
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Their common ground is technology, yet their products are diverse Revenue in 2017 and share of the dominant field of action / product category
US$229.2bn
81%
Hardware
45
Source: Company Information
US$110.9bn
86%
Advertising
US$90.0bn
62%
Software
US$177.9bn
82%
Retail
US$40.7bn
98%
Advertising
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
In addition, the top 5 gather an enormous audience Audience sizes of leading digital publishers in the U.S. in Nov ‘17 in millions Top 5 tech companies
Other Companies
Google
211.9
facebook
204.8
Amazon.com
191.6
Microsoft
185.1
Yahoo
145.6
Wal-Mart Stores
136.2
PayPal Holdings
134.3
Verizon Communications Apple
National Amusements
46
Source: Verto Analytics
132.6 122.8 118.6
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Any mobile activity sooner or later involves at least one of the top 5 Mobile hardware, services and applications from Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Microsoft
Hardware
Communication & Messaging Messenger
Pixel Buds
Gmail Pixel
iMessage
Smart Assistance
Browse & Search Siri
Commerce & Payment
Cortana
Google Maps Safari
Search
Apple Maps
Chrome
Operations & Organization Entertainment
iCloud
47
Note: List is not comprehensive; the main purpose is to illustrate the reach of the most popular mobile products and services of Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Apple Source: Company Information, Statista Research
An iPod, a phone, and an internet communicator... These are not three separate devices, this is one device, and we are calling it iPhone! Today, Apple is going to reinvent the phone. And here it is. Steve Jobs Former CEO of Apple Inc.
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Since Apple launched their first iPhone, cumulated revenues have reached over US$850 billion iPhone revenues in billion US$
853.86 61.60 141.32 136.70 155.04 101.99 91.28
49
0.12
1.84
13.03
2007
2008
2009
Source: Apple
25.18 2010
47.06
78.69
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Q1 2018
Total
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
The new iPhone generation only accounted for 32% of Apple’s 2017 Christmas sales Apple device activations in the week before Christmas 20171 Year of initial release:
2017
2016
iPhone 6
2015
2014
iPhone 8
14.9%
8.1%
iPhone 8 Plus 8.7%
iPhone 6 Plus 4.3%
iPhone 6s
32%
6.0%
5.3%
iPhone SE
iPhone 6s Plus
15.1% iPhone 7
50
1: Dec 19th – Dec 25th 2017 Source: Flurry Analytics
iPhone X
14.7%
12.6%
10.4% iPhone 7 Plus
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
The iPhone remains Apple‘s biggest revenue source with 62%, yet service categories are growing Revenue share of Apple‘s product categories
Services
and other services
13%
Mac
11% 9% 11%
62%
63%
11%
11%
66% 10%
2015
10%
4%
8%
5%
6%
2017
51
Source: Company Information, Statista Research, VisualCapitalist.com
Other products
+ Apple branded and 3rd party accessories
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Apple Pay and PayPal record the highest acceptance rates among North American retailers Apple Pay retail acceptance in North America compared to major competitors
Apple Pay
37%
PayPal
37%
Android Pay
29%
Masterpass by Mastercard Visa Checkout
14%
Samsung Pay
14%
Chase Pay
52
18%
N=500 VPs and C-Level executives at North American retailers Based on data from December 2017 Source: Boston Retail Partner
11%
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Apple is sitting on a huge pile of offshore cash, which offers interesting spending opportunities Spending opportunities for Apple‘s offshore cash
Buy one Bugatti Veyron for every of its 132,000 employees
Buy some of the most famous technology companies, e.g.
Produce 1,680 Harry Potter Movies
US$252 billion offshore cash Buy the 3.4 squarekilometers of New York‘s Central Park1
53
Pay off the national debt of Ireland, which amounts to US$231bn
Note: The amount of offshore cash refers to the 2017 released Paradise Papers 1: Based on the average US$5,417 per square foot for a Central Park West apartment Source: Company Information, Forbes, NeighborhoodX, Morningstar, Dow Jones, IMF
Buy every franchise of the top five U.S. sports leagues, with US$50bn left
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Competition from Chinese smartphone vendors is threatening Apple’s China business Apple revenues generated in the “Greater China“ area in billion US$
58.7
-12.7% p.a. 48.5
44.8 +106.0% p.a.
30.6 22.8
iPhone release in China
25.9
12.5
0.8
2009
54
2.8 2010
Source: Company Information
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
If it isn’t on Google, it doesn’t exist. Jimmy Wales Co-founder of Wikipedia
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Google‘s page load tracking covers almost 65% of all page loads Share of global page loads tracked by technology companies 64.4%
28.8%
12.2%
Google
56
Facebook
comScore
11.0%
Twitter
10.5%
Amazon.com
8.0%
Yandex
6.5%
5.9%
5.8%
5.5%
5.5%
Criteo
New Relic
Quantserve
LiveInternet
AppNexus
Note: Based on the analysis of more than 144 million page loads by 850,000 users in more than 20 countries Source: Ghostery, Cliqz
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Google generated more revenues through advertising than China spent on ads in 2016 Google‘s advertising revenues and total ad spending in the largest ad markets in 2016 in billion US$
United States
190.8
Google
79.4
China
75.0
Japan
41.9
United Kingdom
24.2
Germany
Brazil
57
22.0
13.1
France
11.4
South Korea
11.3
Australia
10.9
Source: Alphabet, Zenith
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Since digital ads generate so much revenue, Google has plenty of cash to develop its “Other Bets“ Revenue share of Alphabet‘s product categories
Google Other Pixel Pixel Buds Home
Google Advertising
Chromecast
10%
88% 90% Google Maps
1%
86% 2015
2017
58
Source: Company Information, Statista Research, VisualCapitalist.com
11%
13% “Other Bets”
1%
1%
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Almost 70% of U.S. users access Google every day Usage frequency of Google services and products in the U.S. in 2017 69%
19%
Daily
59
Several times a week
4%
3%
2%
3%
Once a week
2-3 times a month
Once a month
Less often
“How often do you use Google services and products?”; n=916; respondents who use Google products or services Base: Google product or service users Source: Statista Survey “Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple in the U.S. 2017”
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Google's US$79bn in ad revenues secure its pole position, but other tech brands are growing faster Advertising revenues and growth rates of major media and tech brands
Advertising revenues in billion US$ in 2016 Google
79.4
Facebook
26.9
Comcast
12.9
Baidu
10.4
Walt Disney
8.7
21st Century Fox
60
7.7
CBS Corporation
6.3
iHeartMedia
6.3
Microsoft
6.1
Bertelsmann
CAGR1 ’12-’16
4.4
1: CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate / average growth rate per year Source: Zenith
16% 58% 3% 27% 3% 0% -7% 0% 24% -2%
When Paul Allen and I started Microsoft over 30 years ago, we had big dreams about software. We had dreams about the impact it could have. Bill Gates Founder of Microsoft
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
With US$660bn, Microsoft is the most highly valued software company Market cap of traditional IT companies in billion US$ 660.0
216.0
195.7
189.3 142.0 86.1 16.2
Microsoft
62
Intel
Based on data from Dec 31, 2017 Source: Morningstar
Oracle
Cisco
IBM
Adobe
DELL
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Microsoft Office products are the largest revenue source accounting for 28% in 2017 Revenue share of Microsoft’s product categories
Other
Devices
6%
3% 5% Consulting / support services
9%
6%
5% 7%
Advertisement
25%
28%
MS Office system
12%
10%
5%
9%
16%
2015 10%
11%
Xbox console
Source: Microsoft, Statista Research, VisualCapitalist.com
20% 22%
24%
10% 2017
63
28%
7%
8% 7%
Windows PC operating system
7%
Server products and tools
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Many businesses depend on Microsoft: 80% of fortune 500 companies use Microsoft cloud offerings Microsoft products in numbers
33%
80%
340 million
3 billion
of global internet users use MS Office products
Office mobile downloads
>4 Trillion
emails sent with Office 365 so far
>50k
new Office 365 small businesses per month
64
Based on data from January 2017 Source: Company Information
of Fortune 500 companies use Microsoft cloud offerings
minutes of Skype calls a day
>500 million
members on LinkedIn
>53 million
members active on Xbox Live
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
91% of all desktop PCs run on Microsoft Windows Worldwide desktop market share of operating systems
Other Operating Systems 8% 12%
Windows Vista
7%
7%
8%
8%
18%
15%
10%
7%
Windows XP 8%
9%
9% 3%
4%
Windows 7
12%
10% 2%
10%
Windows 8
Windows 10
9% 1% 6% 1%
25% 43%
37%
53%
47%
64% 80%
51% 44%
10%
42% 30%
2008
15%
65
2009
Windows: 91% market share
61%
74%
1%
49%
2010
Note: Data from July for each year Source: NetMarketShare
5%
2011
2012
2013
12%
16%
2014
2015
21%
2016
8%
28%
2017
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
The Commercial Cloud business is getting increasingly important, with a revenue share of 17% in 2017 Commercial Cloud revenues as a share of total revenue in billion US$
Other Segments
73.7
77.8
1%
66
2%
2013
93.6
94%
97%
98%
99%
2012
86.8
3%
2014
Commercial Cloud
85.3
89%
6%
11%
2015
2016
Note: Commercial Cloud comprises Office 365 Commercial, Dynamics CRM Online, Microsoft Azure and other Microsoft Office online offerings Source: Microsoft
90.0
83%
17%
2017
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Although the Microsoft cloud business is growing fast, Amazon is still the top dog Cloud provider1 competitive positioning as of Q3 ‘17
Cloud services revenues
100% Gaining market share
Annual growth rate
Leading the market
Holding position Expected market growth rate 2017: 40%
Niche players 0%
67
Worldwide market share
1: IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service), PaaS (Platform as a Service), and hosted private cloud Source: Synergy Research Group
35%
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Microsoft’s most important gaming product Xbox One is also used for streaming Estimated share1 of time spent on Xbox One content from Sep ‘16 to Feb ‘17
Netflix 16.5% „TV“ App
6.7% YouTube
Other NonGame Apps
6.6%
54.7%
14.1% 1.5%
Xbox 360 Games
68
1: Based on 930,000 Xbox One users on Xbox Live sampled from 26-09-2016 to 12-02-2017 Source: ars Technica
Xbox One Games
I think Amazon is the greatest start-up and the greatest company in the world. The way they are using new technologies is
not just disrupting retail, it's getting ready to disrupt everything.
Mark Cuban Founder, investor and owner of the Dallas Mavericks
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Amazon dominates online retail, with >180 million unique visitors per month Most popular retail websites in the U.S., ranked by unique monthly visitors in million
Amazon Sites
183
Wal-Mart
87
eBay
86
Apple Sites
57
Target
44
Kohl’s
The Home Depot
32
Etsy
31
Best Buy Lowe’s
70
34
Note: As at September 2017, multi-platform Source: comScore
25 23
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Retail business drives 82% of Amazon revenues Revenue share of Amazon‘s product categories Other
and co-branded credit card agreements
3%
Amazon Web Services
2% 2%
Retail products
9%
7%
64% 67%
4%
72%
10%
5%
6%
Subscription services
15%
2015
17%
18%
2017
71
Source: Company Information, Statista Research, VisualCapitalist.com
Membership and subscription based service fees
Retail third-party seller services
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
The share of North America in Amazon’s overall revenue increased to 68% Amazon‘s annual revenues split by country
ROW
1
11% 15% 15%
72
5%
6%
6%
6%
8%
11%
11%
10%
10%
10%
9%
8%
14%
13%
10%
9%
8%
9%
6% 7%
14%
14%
12%
11%
60%
64%
64%
68%
2014
2015
2016
2017
4%
5%
15%
14%
55%
56%
57%
60%
2010
2011
2012
2013
Note: Revenues from AWS are excluded 1: ROW = Rest of world Source: Company Information
10%
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Customer loyalty in the form of Prime memberships could be a reason for Amazon’s strength in the U.S. Number of Amazon Prime members in the U.S. in million
~ 33% of U.S. internet users 90 85 75
54 44
Jun ’15
73
58
63
80
65
48
Sep ’15
Dec ’15
Source: Consumer Intelligence Research Partners
Mar ’16
Jun ’16
Sep ’16
Dec ’16
Mar ’17
Jun ’17
Sep ’17
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
High revenues require a large workforce: Amazon hired 120k seasonal workers in 2017 Seasonal workers hired by Amazon for holiday season in thousand and quarterly revenues in billion US$
seasonal workers
quarterly revenues
120,000
120,000
100,000 80,000 60.5
70,000
43.7
50,000
35.8 21.3
2012
74
Source: Amazon
29.3
25.6
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
amazon.com still accounts for 60% of Amazon‘s firstparty net sales Amazon‘s first-party net sales in million US$ by online store
amazon.com
amazon.de
amazon.co.uk
amazon.fr
amazon.it
amazon.es
other stores
123.656 108.060 91.431 69.842
61%
76.863
60% 61%
55%
14% 10% 2% 3% 1% 15%
2014
61%
12% 9% 3% 12%
2015
1% 1%
11% 8% 4% 13%
2016
10%
11% 2% 1%
3%
7%
15%
3% 2%
2017
More information on 75
Source: ecommerceDB.com
3%
6%
16%
2018
3% 2%
Advertising works most effectively when it's in line with what people are already trying to do. And people are trying to communicate in a certain way on Facebook - they share information with their friends, they learn about what their friends are doing - so there's really a whole new opportunity for a new type of advertising model within that. Mark Zuckerberg Founder and CEO of Facebook
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
2 billion and counting – the Facebook community is still growing despite its already huge active user base Facebook‘s global active users in billion
Monthly, but not daily active users
1.44 1.49 1.39 1.35 1.28 1.32 1.23 1.19 1.11 1.16
Q1 ’13
77
Q2 ’13
Q3 ’13
Source: Facebook
Q4 ’13
Q1 ’14
Q2 ’14
Q3 ’14
Q4 ’14
Q1 ’15
Q2 ’15
Daily active users
1.55 1.59
Q3 ’15
Q4 ’15
1.65
Q1 ’16
1.71
Q2 ’16
1.79
Q3 ’16
1.86
Q4 ’16
1.94
Q1 ’17
2.01
Q2 ’17
2.07 2.11
Q3 ’17
Q4 ’17
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
The share of Facebook users in Asia-Pacific increased the most Regional distribution of Facebook’s overall monthly active users
Q1 2015
Q4 2017
11%
15%
31%
21%
33%
78
Source: Facebook
-4% points
North America
-4% points
Europe
+6% points
Asia-Pacific
+2% points
Rest of World
33%
17%
39%
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Facebook’s revenues almost exclusively stem from ads Revenue share of Facebook‘s product categories
5%
98% 97% 95% 2015
2017
79
Source: Facebook
3%
2%
Payments and other fees
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Facebook is responsible for almost the entire social media ad spending market Facebook ad revenue compared to global ad spending in billion US$
Global ad spend US$511 billion
Global digital ad spend US$242 billion
Global social media ad spend US$44 billion
80
Note: Bubble sizes only illustrate ratios and do not correspond to actual market sizes Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017, Facebook, Magnaglobal
Facebook Ad revenue
US$40 billion
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Facebook's home market North America leads the regional revenue distribution with a share of ~50% Facebook‘s quarterly advertising revenues in billion US$
North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Rest of World
12.8 10% 10.1 8.6 10% 6.8 6.2 10% 5.6 10% 17% 10% 5.2 16% 9% 4.3 15% 3.8 16% 23% 10% 25% 3.3 11% 16% 25% 10% 24% 16% 24% 16% 26% 26% 50% 49% 51% 50% 49% 48% 48%
Q1 ’15
81
Q2 ’15
Source: Facebook
Q3 ’15
Q4 ’15
Q1 ’16
Q2 ’16
Q3 ’16
15%
23%
9.2 7.9 10%
10% 17%
17% 24%
24%
16%
10% 17%
25%
24%
51%
49%
49%
48%
Q4 ’16
Q1 ’17
Q2 ’17
Q3 ’17
49%
Q4 ’17
The 3-Trillion-Dollar Quintet
Mobile accounts for 89% of Facebook's ad revenues Ad revenue of Facebook by segment in billion US$
Mobile Advertising
Desktop Advertising
14
12.8
12 10 8
89%
6 4 2 0 Q1 Q2 ’12 ’12
82
11% Q3 Q4 Q1 ’12 ’12 ’13
Source: Company Information
Q2 Q3 Q4 ’13 ’13 ’13
Q1 Q2 Q3 ’14 ’14 ’14
Q4 Q1 ’14 ’15
Q2 Q3 Q4 ’15 ’15 ’15
Q1 Q2 Q3 ’16 ’16 ’16
Q4 Q1 Q2 ’16 ’17 ’17
Q3 Q4 ’17 ’17
Global Trends
Vertical Platforms Everything that can become a platform, will become a platform
In his famous article “Why software is eating the world”, VC Marc Andreessen stated: “Six decades into the computer revolution, four decades since the invention of the microprocessor, and two decades into the rise of the modern Internet, all of the technology required to transform industries through software finally works and can be widely delivered at a global scale”, a statement which has never been more true than today. No matter if in terms of accommodation, digital content or transportation: Software, and in particular digital platforms join creators and consumers in a very efficient and convenient way. More importantly, they are scaling fast!
Spotify, Netflix, Airbnb, Uber and many other platforms have reached critical mass in terms of connecting creators and consumers of content. In the last five years, Spotify has increased its number of paying subscribers from three to 70 million users, Netflix has surpassed major pay-TV providers in paying subscribers and Airbnb increased annual guest arrivals from three million to over 100 million. This development has not yet come to an end. These players are going to increase pressure on traditional offline businesses even more – as the shift from offline to online will continue. And those platforms sit at the digital end, waiting for more customers to come.
Vertical Platforms
Digital platforms popped up in many industries to challenge former incumbents Products / services subscribed to, purchased, or booked online by U.S. customers
Markets with huge vertical platforms
Digital Music
Video-on-Demand
Markets led by established players
Mobility Services
Online Travel
47% 43% 36%
27% 18%
As part of a On subscription downloads
84
As part of a On subscription downloads
Ride sharing (short dist.)
20%
Taxi
“Which of these products / services have you spent money on respectively booked online in the past 12 months?”; Multiple response; n=2,000 Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
22% 17%
Vacation apartment
Package holidays
Vertical Platforms
The key to success is a platform that connects consumers and content creators Digital platform approach in streaming & sharing economy
Consumers
Touch Point
Digital Platforms
…
…
…
Producers / value creation
(e.g. online shops, hotels, owners of accommodation)
85
Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
…
…
Vertical Platforms
Three main factors drive the outstanding success, enable fast scalability and tremendous growth Factors driving the success of digital platforms
Consumers 1 Centralized user touch point
Touch Point 3
(one digital “storefront”)
Simplicity in connection
Digital Platforms
2
(plug-and-play ecosystem)
Decentralized value creation (multiple producers)
…
…
…
Producers / value creation
(e.g. online shops, hotels, owners of accommodation)
86
Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
…
…
[…] I don’t know where streaming will go in the future. The analytics that we’re seeing tell us that streaming is the next thing, and downloads are going down. I feel like with the history of this platform, from vinyl to where we are now, it just seems like the next logical step. Shawn Corey Carter (Jay-Z) Rapper, producer, CEO of Def Jam Records
Vertical Platforms
In only a decade, digital streaming achieved a share of 54% in U.S. recorded music revenues U.S. recorded music year-end revenues in billion US$
Physical 14.6 13.7 12.5
14.3
Streaming
13.8 12.6
12.2
Download
11.9
12.3
12.3 11.2
10.7 8.8 7.8
98%
1% 1996 1997
88
Source: RIAA
1998
1999 2000 2001 2002
2003
91%
88%
8%
10%
1%
2%
7.0
7.1
52%
47%
7.0
6.9
6.9
40%
35%
33%
29%
42%
38%
75% 66%
22%
31%
59%
34%
38%
4%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
43%
22% 24%
34% 54%
23%
30%
37%
2010 2011 2012 2013
2014
2015 2016
9% 3%
41%
7.7
7.0
12%
17%
7% 2009
Vertical Platforms
Spotify is the clear market leader, accounting for over 40% of digital music revenues in 2016 Spotify’s share of worldwide digital music revenues
Others
100%
94%
98%
2%
2009
89
Source: IFPI, Spotify
2010
6%
2011
89%
11%
2012
Spotify
82%
18%
2013
77%
23%
2014
67%
33%
2015
59%
41%
2016
Vertical Platforms
Revenues in 2017 are expected to top US$4.5 billion Spotify’s annual revenues and net loss in million US$
Revenue
Net loss
4,517
3,239
2,129
1,197 207
82 -32
825
475 -50
-92
-62
-208
-255
-595
-1,364 2010
90
2011
2012
2013
2014
Note: All figures converted into US$ with 2016 avg. annual exchange rate of 0.90554 US$ per EUR Source: Spotify
2015
2016
2017
Vertical Platforms
Spotify‘s share of paying subscribers is growing rapidly and already makes up almost half of its MAUs Spotify‘s monthly active users
Premium subscribers
Ad-supported users
159 149 123
68 25%
77 27%
82 27%
91 30%
96 30%
104 33%
34%
73%
73%
70%
70%
67%
75%
Q1 ’15
Q2 ’15
Q3 ’15
Q4 ’15
Q1 ’16
Q2 ’16
Q3 ’16
Source: Spotify
37%
138 39%
113
66%
91
132
37%
41%
63%
63%
59%
Q4 ’16
Q1 ’17
Q2 ’17
42%
61%
58%
Q3 ’17
Q4 ’17
Vertical Platforms
Apple Music is far behind, with only half of Spotify’s paying subscribers Paying subscribers to the biggest music streaming providers in million
71
36
92
Based on data from January / February 2018 Source: Spotify, MIDiA Research
Netflix shook it up, brought this whole new generation of people who said, 'I watch things when I want to watch, how I want to watch, where I want to watch, and that's something that no one's going to ever forget.' This has changed the game completely, and I think it's the tip of the iceberg. Mike Colter Actor
Vertical Platforms
Video streaming has a share of 47% in U.S. home entertainment spending U.S. consumer spending on home entertainment in million US$
Sell-thru (physical)
18,430
18,041
Sell-thru (digital)
Rental (physical)
18,219
18,088
Rental (digital)
Streaming (digital)
19,470 17,906
18,074
20,493 23%
28% 50%
56%
32% 10% 2010
94
4%
3%
3%
24%
31%
11% 10%
43%
47%
6%
2011
Source: The Digital Entertainment Group
39%
7%
9%
22%
19%
12%
11%
34%
11% 10%
10%
10%
13%
10%
17%
11%
11%
23%
28%
13%
17%
2012
2013
2014
2015
37%
2016
47%
2017
Vertical Platforms
Netflix already outperforms the top 6 cable companies in the U.S. Total Netflix subscribers vs. pay-TV subscribers of top 6 cable companies in the U.S. in million
Netflix
Top 6 cable companies 54.8
50.9 49.2
49.0
48.8
49.1
49.1
48.9
48.8
47.0
47.1
Q1 ’16
Q2 ’16
Q3 ’16
52.8
49.4 48.9
47.5
51.9
48.7
48.4
48.1
?
Q2 ’17
Q3 ’17
Q4 ’17
44.7 41.4
Q1 ’15
95
42.3
Q2 ’15
43.2
Q3 ’15
Source: Netflix, Leichtman Research Group
Q4 ’15
Q4 ’16
Q1 ’17
Vertical Platforms
Netflix increased their global user base to 118 million Number of global Netflix memberships in million
118
7% p.q.
26
28
29
Q1 ’12
Q2 ’12
Q3 ’12
96
Source: Netflix
33
Q4 ’12
36
38
40
Q1 ’13
Q2 ’13
Q3 ’13
44
Q4 ’13
48
50
53
Q1 ’14
Q2 ’14
Q3 ’14
57
Q4 ’14
62
Q1 ’15
66
Q2 ’15
69
Q3 ’15
75
Q4 ’15
82
83
Q1 ’16
Q2 ’16
87
Q3 ’16
94
Q4 ’16
99
Q1 ’17
104
Q2 ’17
109
Q3 ’17
Q4 ’17
Vertical Platforms
While revenues are approaching US$12bn, net income stays small Netflix annual revenues and net income in million US$
Revenue
Net Income
11,693
8,831
6,780 5,505
4,375 3,609
3,205 2,163
161
2010
97
Source: Netflix
226
2011
17
2012
112
2013
267
2014
123
2015
187
2016
559
2017
Vertical Platforms
Japan has by far the most movies, while the U.S. has the most series Amount of content available on Netflix in 2018 in selected countries
Movies
Japan
Source: uNoGS
3,612
1,406
Brazil
98
3,944
1,414
United Kingdom
Spain
4,043
1,594
Canada
Germany
5,064
1,315
United States
France
Series
3,168
994 848
2,347
2,204 809 741
2,224
Vertical Platforms
Streaming services catch-up: Netflix spent US$6.3 billion on video programming Estimated spending on non-sports video programming by selected companies in US$ billion in 20171
Traditional TV/Media
Streaming 10.2 8.0 8.0
7.8 6.3 5.4 4.5 4.2 2.5 2.2
1.0 1.0
99
1: Includes original and acquired/licensed programming Source: MoffettNathanson via Recode
The next wave of the social graph is empowering services like Airbnb and Lyft that give people the chance to have that physical interaction. People are more open to that because of Airbnb. Airbnb took couch
surfing and took an additional step.
John Zimmer Co-founder and president of ridesharing company Lyft
Vertical Platforms
Hard times for traditional hotels: Airbnb is taking over Accommodation alternatives that Airbnb replaced in the past 12 months as stated by Airbnb users
2015
2016
49% 41% 35%
37% 33%
35% 29%
26% 19%
22%
22% 22%
20% 20%
5% Traditional hotel
101
Bed & breakfast
Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley Research
Friends & family
Extended stay hotel
Vacation rental site
Other vacation rentals
Corporate apartment
4%
Other
Vertical Platforms
Airbnb is expected to grow from 20,000 to about 100 million yearly guest arrivals in less than a decade Estimated annual Airbnb guest arrivals in million
100
80
+188% p.a.
40
16
102
0.02
0.14
0.8
3
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Airbnb, Recode
6
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Vertical Platforms
Airbnb's revenues reached US$2.6bn in 2017 Estimated annual revenues and net income in million US$
Net income / loss
Revenues 2,600
1,700
900 490 20
75
250
100
93
-150 2011
103
2012
2013
Source: WallStreetJournal, Fortune, Bloomberg Technology
2014
2015
2016
2017
Vertical Platforms
Airbnb’s variety of accommodation types is huge Fast facts about accommodation availability on Airbnb
3,000 mansions 700 igloos
9,000 boats 3 million homes
65,000 cities
191 countries
+260m guest arrivals1
1,400 tree houses
3,000 castles
1,000 islands 104
1: Cumulated Source: Airbnb
Vertical Platforms
For hosts, Airbnb can be of great benefit – especially in L.A. Rent per month in Los Angeles in US$
Airbnb1
Contract rent2
8,070
90292 Marina Del Rey
2,000
90048 West Beverly
900028 Hollywood 900026 Echo Park/Silverlake
105
1: Average rent for 30 days 2: Average monthly rent Source: insideairbnb.com
7,680
1,624
7,140
90291 Venice 90017 Downtown Los Angeles
Minimum nights needed to earn more via Airbnb than if rented out long term
1,637 4,980 793
1,081
4,530 4,500
983
89 76 83 57 86 79
The internet business model changed dramatically. You would never
have an Uber, you would never have an Instagram – if you didn't have a connected computer in your pocket that didn’t also have a camera or a GPS. Steve Mollenkopf CEO of Qualcomm
Vertical Platforms
Attitudes towards cars differ between age groups Attitude of U.S. citizens towards mobility
18 - 24 years
66%
25 - 34 years
35 - 44 years
45 - 54 years
55 - 64 years
71%
69% 62%
54%
54%
58% 52% 53%
45%
24% 19%
Owning a car is important to me
107
Cars represent independence and freedom
“Which of these statements apply to you?”; Multiple response; n=2,027 Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
16%
17% 12%
9%
12% 7%
I can live well without a private car
10% 9% 8%
Driving cars is bad for the environment
22%
19%
16% 10%
I would like to switch to more environmentally-friendly means of transportation
Vertical Platforms
Uber is on the road in 450+ cities in 76 countries Uber’s global availability and quick facts Uber services available
1.5 million
76
drivers
countries
5 billion
+450
rides in total
cities
US$50
per customer per month 108
Source: Uber, Fortune, Sky
40 million
monthly active customers
Vertical Platforms
Despite its reach and fast revenue growth, Uber is still burning a lot of investor money Ubers revenue and net loss in billion US$
Revenues
Net loss 2.9
1.7
1.8
1.5
2.2
2.0
1.1 0.8 0.5
0.4
0.3
-0.4
-0.6
0.3
-0.3
-0.4
-0.7
-0.5 -0.9
-1.0
-0.7 -1.1
-1.1 -1.5
Q1 ’15
109
Q2 ’15
Q3 ’15
Q4 ’15
Q1 ’16
Q2 ’16
Q3 ’16
Q4 ’16
Note: As of 2016, China is excluded and net revenue/loss is adjusted; Q1 / Q2 2017: adjusted net revenue; Q1-2017: net loss estimated by Statista Source: Statista, Business Insider, Bloomberg, Reuters, Axios
Q1 ’17
Q2 ’17
Q3 ’17
Q4 ’17
Vertical Platforms
Uber is looking into a promising future, as growth of gross bookings continues to be high Gross bookings in billion US$
+85% 37.0
+125% 20.0
+207% 8.9 +314% 0.7 2013
110
2.9 2014
Source: Bloomberg, Business Insider, bizjournals.com, Reuters
2015
2016
2017
Global Trends
Digital China Two players do it all – explaining Chinese “Everything Companies”
The digital economy in China is shaped by two major players: the Alibaba Group and Tencent Holding.
customers. You want to sell to Chinese online customers without having Alibaba on board? Good luck!
These two companies own the digital user touchpoint for retail, digital media, messaging, and many other services. They have built a comprehensive digital ecosystem in order to provide as many services as possible to their customers from one single source.
Tencent’s well-known instant messaging app WeChat is used by almost one billion people. This is important, as many digital services can be incorporated into WeChat: Media, retail, location services, and payment. Thus, Tencent has multiple sources to generate revenues in usually very small portions.
The Alibaba Group is the country’s #1 retailer. As a platform, they provide the infrastructure for domestic as well as foreign merchants. They own China’s biggest brands, which serve as a digital touchpoint to connect businesses with
111
We dive into the financials and business models and show how Alibaba and Tencent earn their money – as this is quite different compared to companies in Europe and the U.S.
Digital China
The mobile payment business reveals the rivalry between Tencent and Alibaba Comparison of mobile payment services of Tencent (WeChat Pay) and Alibaba (Alipay)
WeChat Pay Users
806 million (2016)
450 million (2016)
Total transaction volume
US$1.2 trillion (2016)
US$1.7 trillion (2016)
Domestic market share
40%
54%
Annual avg. transaction value per user
US$1,527 (2016)
US$2,921 (2015)
Devices supported
Most smartphones
All smartphones, tablets, and computers
Service portfolio
112
▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪
Money transfer Bill payments Bill sharing eCommerce payments Mobile balance top-up Bank account balance checks Hotel booking Ticket purchasing Taxi ordering Investment in wealth mgmt. funds
Source: Better than Cash Alliance, Analysys, Aseantoday, kpcb
▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪
Money transfer Bill payments Bill sharing eCommerce payments Mobile balance top-up Bank account balance checks Hotel booking Ticket purchasing Taxi ordering Investment in wealth mgmt. funds
If you want 10,000 new customers, you have to build a new warehouse and this and that. For me: two servers. Jack Ma Founder of the Alibaba Group comparing offline retail and Alibaba’s business model
Digital China
Commerce is Alibaba’s #1 revenue source, but Digital Media & Entertainment1 is growing fast Alibaba’s annual revenues in billion US$2
China Commerce
Cloud Computing
Innovation Initiatives & others
International Commerce
Dig. Media & Entertainment
Others
3
23.0 9%
2%
4% 9% 14.7 3%
7.6 12%
5.0 85%
2013
114
9% 2%
86%
2014
3% 1%
2% 9%
11.1
8%
4% 3%
3% 2%
76% 83%
83%
2015
2016
1: Digital Media & Entertainment as per Alibaba’s SEC Filings 2: All figures are converted from RMB into US$ using the exchange rate of RMB6.8832 per 1US$ 3: Only shown in annual reports until FY2014 Source: Alibaba
2017
Digital China
Alibaba’s Core Commerce1 has quickly gone mobile Alibaba’s Core Commerce GMV3 share
Mobile GMV
Desktop GMV
21%
17%
13%
79%
83%
87%
2017
2018
35% 59% 81%
65% 41% 19%
2014
115
2015
2016
2
1: Core Commerce as per Alibaba’s SEC Filings includes all commerce-related revenues from both its domestic as well as cross-border businesses 2: Statista estimates based on previous developments 3: GMV = Gross merchandise value Source: Alibaba, Statista estimates
2019
2
Digital China
Alibaba clearly separates between business locations, affecting buyers and sellers alike Alibaba‘s Core Commerce1 stores Retail
Wholesale
Buyer Chinese
Seller
Chinese
116
China Commerce Retail
China Commerce Wholesale
Global International Commerce Wholesale
Global
1: Core Commerce as per Alibaba’s SEC Filings includes all commerce-related revenues from both itsdomestic and cross-border businesses Source: Statista Research
International Commerce Retail
Digital China
Alibaba's major revenue source is retail business in China, which generated US$16.6 billion in 2017 Alibaba‘s Core Commerce1 annual revenue in 2017 Retail
Wholesale
Buyer Chinese Chinese
China Commerce Retail
Global
China Commerce Wholesale
Seller
US$0.8bn
117
International Commerce Wholesale
International Commerce Retail
US$0.9bn
US$16.6bn
Global
1: Core Commerce as per Alibaba’s SEC Filings includes all commerce-related revenues from both its domestic as well as cross-border businesses Source: Alibaba, Statista Research
US$1.2bn
Digital China
Unlike Amazon, Alibaba makes most of its money through online marketing services Alibaba’s annual revenues in billion US$
Online marketing
Commission
Membership fees & VAS1
Cloud computing
Others
23.0 9% 7%
14.7 11.1 7.6 5.0 19% 60%
2013
118
7% 15%
10%
8% 7%
2014
7% 2%
53%
2015
1: VAS = value-added services Note: All figures are converted from RMB into US$ using the exchange rate of RMB6.8832 per 1US$ Source: Alibaba
24%
27%
30%
24% 59%
8%
5% 3%
56% 57%
2016
2017
4%
Digital China
Alibaba‘s cloud business had almost 900m customers by the end of FY2017 Paying customers of Alibaba‘s cloud computing business in million
874 765 651 577 513 383 263
Jun ’15
119
Source: Alibaba
313
Sep ’15
Dec ’15
Mar ’16
Jun ’16
Sep ’16
Dec ’16
Mar ’17
Tencent is great at monetizing eyeballs […].
That’s their core competency. They are making tons of money by scraping together pennies from tiny transactions.”
Jeff Walters Partner and Managing Director of BCG Beijing Office
Digital China
WeChat is the fastest-growing Tencent service Monthly active users of Tencent‘s social & messaging services in million
Weixin / WeChat
Qzone
QQ 980
815
808
798 721 552
654
625
603
853 697
640
889
869
843
638 568
500 355
161 50
2011
121
2012
Source: Tencent, Statista Research
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Digital China
Next to WeChat, Tencent provides a number of other digital services Tencent’s business structure
Interactive Entertainment Group
Mobile Internet Group
Operation, development and quality assurance of Tencent Interactive Entertainment, e.g.
Focusing on mobile internet services for security products and utilities, e.g.
▪ Online games ▪ Online literature ▪ Comics ▪ Movies
Pitu
122
▪ YingYongBao ▪ QQ Browser ▪ Tencent Mobile Manager ▪ Tencent PC Manager
YingYong Mobile Bao Manager
Source: Tencent, Statista Research
Online Media Group Operation and development of the online media business, e.g. ▪ QQ.Com ▪ Tencent video ▪ Tencent news
Social Network Group Development of innovative valueadded services for Tencent‘s cloud business, as well as social platforms and instant messaging built around QQ and Qzone
QZone QQ Int. Tribe
Weixin Group Further development of Weixin / WeChat ecosystem, e.g. open platform, payment and O2O services. Also, operations and development of QQ Mail and Weixin Enterprise
WeChat
WeChat Pay
Corporate Development Group Business incubator & professional support platform ▪ Online finance ▪ Online payment ▪ Online advertising
Tenpay
Technology & Engineering Group Provider of technology and operations support for the business groups and Tencent‘s users
Digital China
Tencent monetizes digital business models: valueadded services, advertising and payment & cloud Tencent business model
Business model
Revenue streams
Value-added services (VAS)
Social networks & online games: monthly subscriptions + item purchases
Fee-based revenues
Online advertising
Media ads (news, video, music properties), app store, browser + ad network
Traffic-based revenues
Online payment charge rate + cloud services
Transactionbased revenues
Payment & cloud
123
Source: Tencent
Digital China
Online games contribute 43% to Tencent‘s revenue in Q3 2017, which makes it the most important segment Annual revenues in billion US$
Online games
Other
25.7 22.8
57%
15.4 11.8
9.1 6.6
124
4.3
44% 56%
52%
2010
2011
2012
Source: Tencent
45%
43%
47%
48%
2.9 52% 48%
53%
53% 2013
57%
2014
55%
2015
47%
43%
2016
Q3 2017
Digital China
Tencent is #1 in the field of online gaming Public companies with most revenues from gaming in the first half of 2017 in billion US$
7.4 4.3 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.0
2.9 2.1 1.1 1.0
125
1: Estimated figures, as gaming revenues are not separately reporting in SEC filings Note: Hardware sales are not included Source: Newzoo – Global Games Market Report
Digital China
Value added services are Tencent’s main revenue source Annual revenues in billion $US
1
VAS (Value-Added Services)
Online Advertising
Others 25.7 22.8
17%
11%
18% 15.4 11.8
6.6
7%
2.9 93% 2010
126
0%
7%
4.3 92% 2011
1%
8% 81% 2012
8% 11%
9.1 17%
74% 2013
11%
17%
5%
9% 71%
67%
2016
Q3 2017
78%
80%
2014
16%
2015
1: VAS Revenue calculated from internet value-added Services and mobile and telecommunications value-added Services Source: Tencent
Digital China
Tencent‘s focus on games might be a smart decision as general interest in eSports is growing Global eSports revenues and audience
Global eSports revenues in million US$
Global eSports viewers1 in million
1,488
1,187 +36%2
941
696
325 130 2012
127
194
2014
134
2015
2016
589
+20%2
493
2017
2018
2019
2020
2012
204
235
2014
2015
1: Occasional viewers and enthusiasts combined 2: CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate / average growth rate per year Source: Newzoo
323
2016
385
389
427
2017
2018
2019
2020
Digital China
The increase in fee-based registered subscriptions is fueling Tencent’s revenue growth Fee-based registered subscribers in million
125 109 90
110
1
105
1
2010
128
1
89
2011
2012
2013
95 84
2014
2015
1: VAS subscriptions calculated from internet value-added services and mobile and telecommunications value-added services Source: Tencent
2016
Q3 2017
Table of Contents: Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook Part 2 – exclusive Statista content
›
eCommerce ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 130
›
eServices …………………………….……………………………………………………………………………………………………... 149
›
eTravel ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 162
›
Digital Media ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 172
›
FinTech ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 181
›
Digital Advertising …………………………..…………………………………………………………………………................. 192
›
Smart Home ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 202
›
Connected Car …........................................................................................................................................ 211
129
Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook www.statista.io/ecommerce
eCommerce eCommerce is one of the hot topics when it comes to digitalization and disruptive changes to traditional industries. The rising number of internet as well as smartphone users, and the increasing time people spend online, shaped the term “always on”. This development resulted in an everincreasing online market with new types of purchasing processes appearing all over the world. At the same time, more and more different product categories and product ranges find their way into online trade.
Statista’s Digital Market Outlook divides the eCommerce market into five product segments: Fashion, Electronics & Media, Food & Personal Care, Furniture & Appliances, and Toys, Hobby & DIY. In 2017, the global1 eCommerce market was worth US$1.5
130
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook
trillion. China was the biggest eCommerce market worldwide, generating revenues of US$497 billion. Based on the high annual growth rate of 14%, the market is expected to exceed revenues of US$959 billion by 2022. The second biggest eCommerce market is the U.S. with revenues of US$421 billion in 2017, followed by Europe with US$330 billion. In both markets, growth rates are expected to be significantly lower than in China, with 8-9% annually. The steady fusion of online and offline shopping is a major eCommerce development: Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods shows their ambition to shake up the grocery industry, while merging offline and online retail at the same time. Many other players from both the online and offline world move to multi-channel strategies, underlining this trend.
Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook
Furthermore, the world’s largest retailer in terms of revenues, Wal-Mart Inc., has embedded the digital mindset into their corporate DNA: They changed their official name from “Wal-Mart Stores” to “Wal-Mart”, in order to show their effort to address all customers and abandon the apparent focus on offline-clients. We observe a similar development in China: eCommerce giant Alibaba is gradually expanding towards the offline world and opening brick-and-mortar stores. According to Daniel Zhang, CEO of Alibaba, “[…] the future of new retail will be a harmonious integration of online and offline, and Hema is a prime example of this evolution that's taking place”.
However, the Chinese eCommerce market is not at all a “one company show”. In order to rival Alibaba, China’s second biggest online marketplace JD.com partnered with internet giant Tencent Holding. They invested more than US$800 million in Vipshop, one of the leading online discount retailers for luxury brand products.
Next to those most recent developments, we expect some major trends to take off in the near future: mobile and marketplaces. Merchants increasingly understand the benefits of agile and short-acting platforms. Hence, they develop applications specifically designed for the mobile experience, rather than optimizing web shops for mobile devices. We expect marketplaces to become the best choice for almost all product categories (with the exception of only a few) with proven winners in terms of price or product quality. In categories relating to personal style or taste, such as clothing or interior design, independent players will always have their share of the market.
[email protected]
131
Digital Market Outlook: eCommerce
The global1 eCommerce market is expected to reach almost US$2.5 trillion in revenues by 2022 Global1 eCommerce revenue in billion US$
Fashion
Electronics & Media
Food & Personal Care
Furniture & Appliances
Toys, Hobby & DIY
2,508.2 2,343.1 2,154.5 1,947.0 1,728.7 1,510.6 1,305.3
320.2
144.0 194.5
132
357.1 170.0 225.1
395.4 198.9
258.7
712.9
605.9 544.9
481.2
417.3
356.4
662.3
432.4 228.7 293.9
466.3 257.4
495.7 283.4
520.3 305.8
329.2
363.2
394.6
290.2
341.1
394.6
447.1
495.7
538.4
574.6
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
Digital Market Outlook: eCommerce
Clothing and Consumer Electronics are the biggest categories within eCommerce Global1 eCommerce revenue in billion US$ and segment revenue shares in 2017
417.3 Clothing
357.1 Consumer Electronics
170.0 Food & Beverages
225.1 Furniture & Homeware
341.1 Toys & Baby
27%
44% 66%
70%
74%
16%
DIY, Pets & Garden
Personal Care
45%
Shoes 21% Bags & Accessories 14% Fashion
133
Sports & Outdoor
56% Books, Movies, Music & Games
30%
26%
Electronics & Media
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook Note: Percentages refer to the individual segment columns Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
Home Appliances
Food & Personal Care
Furniture & Appliances
Hobby & Stationery 13% Toys, Hobby & DIY
Digital Market Outlook: eCommerce
It had already been #1 in eCommerce, but China still grew by 24% in 2017 Top 5 eCommerce countries by market revenue in billion US$
2017
496.8
China
402.2 421.1
United States
371.2 96.7
Japan
88.3 95.1
United Kingdom
Germany
134
2016
86.7 63.4 57.1
Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
11%
10%
10%
13%
24%
Digital Market Outlook: eCommerce
The online sales share of Consumer Electronics in the U.S. is expected to reach almost 75% by 2021 Sales channels in selected consumer product categories in the U.S. in 2017
Consumer Electronics
Furniture
Apparel Offline
Online
26% 46% 82%
76%
84%
73%
74% 54% 18% 2017
135
2021
2017
24% 2021
16% 2017
Note: The distribution channel Online refers to the purchase of physical goods in online retail. In other words, the purchase is concluded via the internet – on a desktop PC, tablet or smartphone. The distribution channel Offline covers all purchases in stationary stores, via telesale or mailorder (e.g. print catalogs) Source: Statista Consumer Market Outlook 2018
27% 2021
Digital Market Outlook: eCommerce
The German eCommerce market is highly concentrated – 3 stores account for almost 30% of net sales eCommerce net sales in 2016 in million US$ and market shares in %
.de
.de
.de .de
.de
.de
Rank 31-40 1,556 mUS$ 3.2%
Rank 4-10 4,091 mUS$ 8.5%
.de Rank 1-3 13,265 mUS$ 27.4%
Rank 20-21 2,077 mUS$ 4.3%
Rank 11-20 3,432 mUS$ 7.1%
Rank 41-50 1,359 mUS$ 2.8%
61-70 1,074 mUS$ 2.2%
71-80 895 mUS$ 1.8%
Rank 51-60 1,236 mUS$ 2.6%
81-90 757 mUS$ 1.6%
91-100 632 mUS$ 1.3%
17,958 mUS$ Long tail (Rank 101+) 37.2%
More information on 136
Source: ecommerceDB.com
Digital Market Outlook: eCommerce
In China, 37% of Apparel sales are generated online, compared to only 18% in the U.S. Online sales shares in the Apparel market in 2017 China South Korea Netherlands Sweden Belgium United Kingdom Singapore France Denmark Finland Norway Ireland Germany Czech Republic United States Spain Canada Poland Switzerland Austria
137
37% 29%
24% 23% 22% 22% 22% 22% 20% 20% 20% 18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 17% 16% 15% 14%
Note: The distribution channel Online refers to the purchase of physical goods in online retail. In other words, the purchase is concluded via the internet - on a desktop PC, tablet or smartphone. The distribution channel Offline covers all purchases in stationary stores, via telesale or mailorder (e.g. print catalogs) Source: Statista Consumer Market Outlook 2018
Digital Market Outlook: eCommerce
The payment methods offered by European online stores mostly meet customer needs Payment methods offered by online stores in % and preferred payment methods of online shoppers1 in %
Offerd by stores
United Kingdom
Italy
12 27
89
4 2
16 46 2
1 Base: Consumers aged 15 to 79 who have shopped online Source: postnord, ecommerceDB.com
41 92
36 65
99
34
79
34
4
95
54 93
42
Spain
99
18 82
Cash on delivery 1 3
138
France 88
48
Paypal or similar
Invoice
Germany
100
Debit / credit card
Direct payment
Preferred by online shoppers
87
48
36
42
66
57
4
8
3
1 3
4 1
9 1
5 2
63 10
More information on
42 11
Digital Market Outlook: eCommerce
Amazon is the #1 online shop1 in the most relevant European eCommerce markets Top 5 online shops1 in 2017 by revenue in million US$
United Kingdom
.co.uk
.com
.co.uk
.com
.co.uk
139
France
Germany
6.019
4.320
2.907
.de
.de
.de
2.500
1.958
1: eCommerce net sales generated via the respective country domain only Source: eCommerceDB.com
9.887
.de
.fr
3.262
3.506
1.416
2.566
.com
937
.fr
723
.com
2.249
1.550
585
Digital Market Outlook: eCommerce
Next to large all-encompassing platforms, there are many product-specific eCommerce players eCommerce key players by business model and region
Marketplaces United States
China
Europe
140
Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2018
Online Retailers
Direct Sellers
Digital Market Outlook: eCommerce
Consumer Electronics, clothing, shoes and media products are mainly searched for and bought online Share of U.S. consumers who primarily search for / purchase a product online in %
Share of U.S. consumers who ordered these items online in the past 12 months 70
Offline search & online purchase
65
Online search & purchase
Purchased primarily online
60
Books, Movies, Music & Games
55 50 45 40
Shoes
35
Bags & Accessories
30 20
Stationery & Hobby Supplies
15 5
Sports & Outdoor
Offline search & purchase
0 0
5
10
Cosmetics & Body Care
Toys & Baby Products
25
10
15
DIY, Garden & Pets
20
Household Appliances
Furniture & Household Goods
Food & Drinks 25
30
Online search & offline purchase 35
40
45
50
55
Searched for primarily online
141
Consumer Electronics
Clothing
“For which of these products do you mostly look for information online?”; Multiple response; "Which of these products do you mostly buy / order online?“; Multiple response; "Which of these items have you bought online in the past 12 months?“; Multiple response; n=2,010 Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
60
65
70
Digital Market Outlook: eCommerce
Alibaba’s sales on Singles’ Day dwarf Thanksgiving weekend record sales U.S. online retail sales on Thanksgiving weekend and Alibaba‘s GMV1 on Singles‘ Day in billion US$
Thanksgiving weekend
Singles‘ Day (Alibaba) 42% 25.3
16% 16.9
14.6
2.9
Thanksgiving
2.4
Black Friday
4.3
Saturday
2.2
Cyber Monday
5.6
6.6
2016
2017
142
17.8
5.0 2.4
2016
1: GMV = Gross merchandise value Note: Adobe retail data is based on the analysis of one trillion visits to 4,500 retail websites and 55 million stock keeping units Source: Alibaba, Adobe Digital Insights
2017
Digital Market Outlook: eCommerce
The rise of eCommerce is increasingly going to affect U.S. chain stores Past and forecast major U.S. chain store closures
12,950
8,950 8,000 6,950
4,550
4,150
4,950 3,500
3,750
3,450
3,750
4,000
2014
2015
2016
1,900
2007
143
2008
2009
2010
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Business Insider
2011
2012
2013
2017
2018
2019
Digital Market Outlook: eCommerce
The U.S. has the highest mobile and voice shopping rates Devices used for online shopping
Desktop PC
Tablet
Smartphone
Smart speakers (e.g. Amazon Echo)
58% 49%
48% 41%
37%
45% 40%
38%
27%
10% 5% United States
144
United Kingdom
“Which of the following devices have you used for online shopping in the past 12 months?”; Multiple response; U.S.: n=2,010, UK: n= 2,011, DE: n=2,062 Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
2% Germany
Digital Market Outlook: eCommerce
In some categories, more than 50% of Americans already use their mobile device for shopping Mobile share of U.S. eCommerce spending in Q3 2017
Toys & Hobbies
58%
Video Games, Consoles & Accessories
55%
Music, Movies & Videos
51%
Jewelery & Watches
51%
Computer Software
41%
Sports & Fitness
40%
Home & Garden
33%
Apparel & Accessories Books & Magazines
22%
Consumer Packaged Goods
22%
Consumer Electronics Computer Hardware
145
26%
Source: comScore
14% 13%
Digital Market Outlook: eCommerce
To U.S. consumers, brands matter most when it comes to smartphones Brand awareness by category in the U.S.
Smartphone
63%
Clothing & shoes
53%
TV & HiFi
48%
Cars, motorcycles, bicycles
47%
Household appliances
44%
Food & non-alcoholic drinks
42%
Detergents & cleaning products
42%
Cosmetics & body care
39%
Alcoholic drinks
36%
Bags & accessories
31%
Furniture & household goods Toys & baby products
146
25% 18%
"In which of these categories do you pay particular attention to brands?”; Multiple response; n=10,150 Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
Digital Market Outlook: eCommerce
81% of women state that it’s them who decide on which food to buy for their households Purchase decision maker by gender in the U.S.
Female
Male
Daily consumer goods (food, drinks, drugstore & cleaning products) Clothing, shoes, accessories Furniture & household goods Toys & baby products
29%
38%
53%
Household appliances 56% 55%
Travels Media
Finance & insurance, telecommunications & electricity
56%
Consumer electronics Cars, motorcycles, bicycles
147
81%
65%
"In which fields do you personally make purchasing decisions?”; Multiple response; "What is your gender?”, n=10,150 Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
50%
66%
75%
65% 63% 62% 64% 66% 69% 64%
79%
89%
Digital Market Outlook: eCommerce
ecommerceDB.com – Statista‘s eCommerce database Your starting point for market analytics, benchmarking and lead generation
More than 6,000 detailed store profiles
Easy to use ecommerceDB.com offers a clear design and intuitive navigation
Web sales information Web sales from 2014 to 2017, growth forecast for 2018, relative market shares, cross border and product analytics In-depth KPIs Providers of logistics services, payment methods, traffic metrics
Seamless workflow Content can be instantly downloaded in Excel format Daily updates Information on online store revenues is updated on a daily basis > Store profile
Company information Including information on company revenue, contact information (management, marketing, and eCommerce contacts)
“
Statista’s ecommerceDB contains detailed data on online stores that is most useful for our analyses of the eCommerce market." Michael Üreyil, Research Analyst at EY Parthenon GmbH
Your provider of more than 6,000 detailed store profiles > Customized Ranking
148
Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook www.statista.io/eservices
eServices eServices are reaching out towards new horizons: Food Delivery players have started to cooperate with Ride Sharing companies to further improve customer experience and reduce costs. The most obvious example is the cooperation between Uber and UberEats. Yet Uber rival Ola has just bought Foodpanda India to get into the food delivery market as well. And Taco Bell is working with Lyft in order to deliver their meals to their customers. The eServices market is divided into four segments in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook: Event Tickets, Fitness, Dating Services, and Food Delivery. The eServices market1 reached a revenue of US$134 billion in 2017 with Food Delivery being the biggest segment. China has taken a leading role with a market size of US$43 billion. This is due to the outstanding revenue generated in the Chinese Food
149
Delivery segment. It is also the fastest-growing market with a CAGR2 of 19% through to 2022. With a revenue of US$36 billion in 2017, the eServices market in Europe is smaller compared to China, but larger than the US$31 billion U.S. market. The low numbers in the overall U.S. eServices market stem from a relatively weak Food Delivery segment, which is less than half the size of its Chinese equivalent. Next to the cooperation between Food Delivery and Ride Sharing players, we expect an increasing integration of social networks (e.g. Facebook) and eServices platforms and apps. An example are ticketing platforms, where certain online ticket providers already cooperate with social media organizations. Fandango, for example, cooperates with Facebook and allows users to purchase movie tickets through the social network.
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook 2: CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate / average growth rate per year
Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook
Event Tickets is the second largest eServices segment. The biggest specter for event ticketing companies is probably Amazon. There are constant rumors that Amazon is planning to sell event tickets online. In August 2017, Amazon was said to be seeking cooperation with U.S. venue owners to sell event tickets. Amazon even tested the potential of selling tickets online in the UK. However, the latest news is that Amazon is not going to take over Ticketmaster and Co., so event ticketing companies can breathe a sigh of relief – for now. In Fitness, we observe another exciting development: Fitbit, for example, is advancing into employee health care and coaching with its Twine Health acquisition. We believe that fitness trackers will in the future be able to make recommendations regarding the user’s health and predict health conditions (e.g. heart attacks, diabetes, etc.). This might open up possibilities for new business models in several areas, such as the health and insurance sectors. But not all is well in the eServices market: There are some bad news for Tinder. The top dating app on iOs had
150
introduced higher subscription fees for users above 30. But in February, courts decided that Tinder was no longer allowed to charge different fees based on age for discrimination reasons. Furthermore, smartwatches will heavily impact Fitness and Dating Services. We anticipate an increasing convergence of smartwatches and fitness bands. Fitness trackers will include features like measuring heart rates, making payments, and controlling lighting. Secondly, dating apps will be used on smartwatches to access messaging functionalities. The new Apple Watch app “Hands-Free Tinder”, for example, already provides a new way of swiping through Tinder profiles: The app automatically swipes on a profile based on the user’s heart rate.
[email protected]
Digital Market Outlook: eServices
Driven by the Food Delivery segment, the global1 eServices market continues to grow Global1 eServices revenue in billion US$
Event Tickets
Fitness
Dating Services
Food Delivery
303.6 274.9 242.4
38.5
170.0
33.7
133.9 29.1
101.3 24.7 64.9
2016
151
7.3 4.5
91.7
2017
8.3 4.8 121.8
2018
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
9.3 5.1 152.9
2019
47.3 10.9 5.6
10.1 5.4
182.9
2020
12.0 6.1
11.5 5.9
43.0
206.9
51.3
210.2
2021
234.2
2022
Digital Market Outlook: eServices
The Online Takeaway segment dominates the global1 eServices market in terms of revenue Global1 eServices revenue in billion US$ and segment revenue shares in 2017 29.1
8.3
Apps
Sport Events
4.8
91.7 Restaurant Delivery
9%
Online Takeaway
30%
Music Events
73%
Matchmaking 55%
40%
91% Online Dating 17%
Cinema Tickets 30%
27%
Casual Dating 27%
Wearables Event Tickets
152
Fitness Dating Services
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook Note: Percentages refer to the individual segment columns Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
Food Delivery
Digital Market Outlook: eServices
The eServices market grew in all top 5 countries by more than 25% Top 5 eServices countries by market revenue in billion US$
2017
2016
42.9
China
31.7 31.1
United States
24.6 8.8
United Kingdom
Germany
Japan
153
7.0 5.5 4.4 4.8 3.5
Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
26%
37%
25%
26%
35%
Digital Market Outlook: eServices
The eServices landscape is highly competitive with many different established and new players Selected providers of eServices
Event Tickets Start-ups1
Established players
154
1: Founded in or after 2007 Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2018
Fitness
Dating Services
Food Delivery
Digital Market Outlook: eServices
Ticketmaster is the market leader in online ticketing Websites and apps used to purchase event tickets in the U.S.
25% 15% 11% 9% 9% 8% 6% 6% 5% 4% Other
155
5%
“Which of these online providers have you bought event tickets from (website or app) in the past 12 months?”; Multiple response; n=871, respondents who bought event tickets online Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
Digital Market Outlook: eServices
Almost 80% of the Chinese order meals online, compared to only 14% of people in Japan Share of respondents who ordered meals online
China India Turkey Brazil South Africa Russia Netherlands Mexico United Kingdom United States Germany Australia Austria Canada Sweden Nigeria France Japan
156
77% 66% 64%
49% 49% 46% 42% 39% 38% 38% 36% 35% 34% 28% 26% 22% 19%
14%
“Which of these online services (website or app) have you used in the past 12 months?”; Multiple response; U.S., UK, DE, FR: n~2,000, all other countries n~1,000 Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
Digital Market Outlook: eServices
The UK, Germany, and France all have a leading food delivery provider in the market Online food providers used by respondents in the past 12 months
United States
United Kingdom
39%
157
65%
29%
34%
28%
France
78%
37%
32%
Germany
44%
29%
16%
9%
53%
27%
31%
8%
5%
“Which of these online providers of food delivery have you used in the past 12 months?”; Multiple response; U.S.: n=774, UK: n=1,532, DE: n=750, FR: n=376; respondents who used meal orders online in the past 12 months Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
21%
11%
6%
Digital Market Outlook: eServices
Apple, Fitbit, and Samsung dominate the market for health trackers and smartwatches Top 5 eHealth trackers / smartwatches
United States
United Kingdom
Fitbit
44%
Fitbit
39%
23%
Fitbit
20%
21%
20%
158
40%
France
30%
34%
12%
Germany
12%
6%
24%
Fitbit 19%
19%
12%
9%
“Which of these providers do you own a fitness or health tracker or a smartwatch from?”; Multiple response; U.S.: n=834, UK: n=565, DE: n=449,, FR: n=363; respondents who use fitness trackers, smartwatches with fitness function, motion trackers or sleep tracking systems Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
18%
12%
9%
Digital Market Outlook: eServices
Fitbit suffered a sales decline to 15 million devices Number of Fitbit devices sold worldwide in million
21,4
22,3
15,3
10,9
4,5
159
0,1
0,2
2010
2011
Source: Fitbit
1,3
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Digital Market Outlook: eServices
With Fitbit suffering, Apple jumps to the top of the global wearables market Top 5 wearable device companies based on worldwide unit shipments in million in 2017
Apple
17.7
Xiaomi
15.7
Fitbit
15.4
Garmin
Fossil
160
Source: IDC
6.3
4.9
Digital Market Outlook: eServices
Online Dating users are young, male, and have a high income Demographics of people that use Online Dating in the U.S.
Age
Gender
18-24 years
Income
21%
25-34 years
39% 36%
35-44 years
29% Male
45-54 years
55-64 years
161
64%
41%
High income
28%
Medium income
30%
Low income
Female
7%
4%
“Which of these online services (website or app) have you used in the past 12 months?”; "What is your gender?“; "How old are you?“; n=464; respondents who used online dating services in the past 12 months; "About how high is the monthly gross income that your total household disposes of, before tax and contributions?“; n= 254 respondents who used online dating services in the past 12 months and gave information about their income Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook www.statista.io/etravel
eTravel The mobility and travel markets have been heavily disrupted by digital business models. And this trend is far from over: Self-driving cars and similar innovations interfere with processes both in commercial and personal transportation. In Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook, the eTravel market consists of two segments: Mobility Services and Online Travel Booking. With revenues of US$213 billion in 2017, the United States takes the leading role within the eTravel market. User penetration and growth in Europe are lower, due to concerns about private data abuse and many growth-hampering regulations and laws. This leads to a revenue of US$180 billion. Although the Chinese market is even smaller, with revenues of US$113.5 billion, it is the fastest-growing region and we expect it to overtake Europe by 2022 in some segments.
162
Ride Sharing is probably the most exciting part of the eTravel market: It is likely the most lucrative field of application for self-driving cars and therefore a driver of innovation. In the future, the cost of travel per mile will probably be lower in a driverless Uber than in a private car, even for long trips in rural areas. We also expect self-driving cars to increase road safety, reduce traffic accidents, free up space in cities (car parks, etc.), and reduce congestion. Not surprisingly, many Ride Sharing companies cooperate with automakers like General Motors, Ford, Volvo, and Tesla to develop driverless cars. Uber, for example, is partnering with Volvo and has acquired Otto, a start-up developing driverless trucks. Thus far, Uber is making great progress and already testing a self-driving fleet in Pittsburgh. Yet it is currently still supervised by humans in the driver's seat.
Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook
Profitability is another hot topic in digital markets. While Airbnb reached full-year profitability in 2017, many other eTravel players are still struggling. Airbnb achieved this feat mainly thanks to its expansion towards China and the development of new products like additional travel experience offerings. An example of a company that is not (yet) making profit is Uber. 2017 was a year full of scandals for Uber, which eventually drove CEO Travis Kalanick out of the company. In addition to that, competition in the Ride Sharing space is fierce: Indian ride-hail player Ola is taking up the fight against Uber, starting with the Australian market. Didi – Ubers Chinese competitor – is going to buy Brazil’s 99 in a US$1bn deal to take on Uber in Latin America. One major trend within online travel bookings is the shift towards mobile: The overall amount of mobile searches and bookings is increasing at a fast pace. In particular lastminute and same-day bookings are often made on mobile devices. Hence, hotels and online travel agencies are
163
investing heavily in mobile technologies to expand their services and products within this area. The showpiece for this trend is Hotel Tonight, a smartphone-only same-day hotel booking app. When it comes to mobile devices, design and usability are the most critical factors influencing users in their decision whether or not to book a hotel. The usability and simplicity of the Hotel Tonight app is a model for all mobile hotel booking systems. Another good example is the Booking Now app created by Booking.com: After only one tap, the app retrieves all available hotels in the immediate area. Hotels can then be booked via a quick two-step booking process.
[email protected]
Digital Market Outlook: eTravel
The global1 eTravel market is expected to hit US$1 trillion in revenues by 2022 Global1 eTravel revenue in billion US$
Online Travel Booking
Mobility Services 966.6
1,025.0
898.3
821.5 739.2 655.8
286.2
306.5
323.5
263.0 238.1
576.1 212.7 187.8
388.3
2016
164
443.1
2017
501.1
2018
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
558.4
2019
612.2
660.1
701.5
2020
2021
2022
Digital Market Outlook: eTravel
Online flight bookings is by far the largest segment in the global1 eTravel market Global1 eTravel revenue in billion US$ and segment revenue shares in 2017 212.7 Package Holiday
443.1 Flights
55% 74%
Hotels 30%
Vacation Rentals
15%
Car Rentals
5%
Trains & Busses
11%
Ride Sharing
10%
Online Travel Booking
165
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook Note: Percentages refer to the individual segment columns Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
Mobility Services
Digital Market Outlook: eTravel
The Chinese eTravel market grew by 24%, which is way above average Top 5 eTravel countries by market revenue in billion US$
2017
2016 213.2
United States
197.2 113.5
China
91.6 44.2
United Kingdom
40.5 34.9
Germany
France
166
32.4 26.3
23.5
Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
8%
12%
9%
24%
8%
Digital Market Outlook: eTravel
The eTravel market is dominated by new players such as Uber and Airbnb Selected companies in the eTravel sector
Online Travel Booking Start-ups1
Established Players
167
1: Founded in 2007 or later Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2018
Mobility Services
Digital Market Outlook: eTravel
Airbnb is cheaper than hotel stays Average room price per night in selected major cities in January 20181 in US$
Hotel 119
49
127
Airbnb 38
$
Amount saved by using Airbnb 79
57
53
22
306
240 187
220
217
191
179
193 167 114
93
110
118
114
92
65
New York
168
Sydney
1: Converted from EUR to USD on 1/22/18 Source: AirSNA, HRS
Tokyo
London
Toronto
Paris
Moscow
Berlin
Digital Market Outlook: eTravel
Airbnb is the #5 platform for accommodation booking in the U.S. Share of respondents who used online providers to book accommodation in the U.S.
Expedia
40%
Hotels.com
38%
trivago
34%
Booking.com
32%
Airbnb
24%
Travelocity
22%
Priceline
15%
ORBITZ
14%
Hotwire
11%
HomeAway
11%
OneTravel
9%
Agoda
7%
Flipkey
5%
Homestay wimdu other
169
4% 2% 11%
“From which of these online providers have you booked an accommodation – hotel or private accommodation – in the past 12 months (website or app)”?; Multiple response; n=1,160 respondents who booked hotels, vacation apartments or houses online in the past 12 months Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
Digital Market Outlook: eTravel
Turkey, Brazil, and South Africa are the countries where online travel offers are most appreciated Respondents who agree that the best travel deals can be found online
Turkey Brazil South Africa Italy Spain India Finland Russia Indonesia Sweden Mexico United Kingdom Poland Australia Canada China United States France Germany Netherlands South Korea Japan
170
19%
34%
46% 44% 43% 41% 39% 37%
“Which of these statements do you agree with?”; Multiple response; U.S., UK, DE, FR: n~2,000, all other countries n~1,000 Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
51% 51% 50% 50% 49%
60% 58% 57% 57% 56% 54% 54%
63%
66%
Digital Market Outlook: eTravel
Ride Sharing users are young, male, and have a high to medium income Demographics of people that use Ride Sharing in the U.S.
Age
Gender
18-24 years
Income
22%
25-34 years
50% 36%
35-44 years
55-64 years
171
High income
38%
Medium income
23%
Low income
Female
23% Male
45-54 years
39%
64%
4%
2%
“Which of these services have you booked online (website or app) in the past 12 months? / Ride Sharing“ n=221; "What is your gender?“; "How old are you?“ "About how high is the monthly gross income that your total household disposes of, before tax and contributions?“; respondents who gave information about their income Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook www.statista.io/digitalmedia
Digital Media Digital Media is one of the oldest digital markets next to eCommerce and thus the big disruption of the media industry is already a battle of the distant past. Now the big question is how business models adapt to a time when customers demand all kinds of content everywhere and at all times for little money. The Digital Media market in Statista’s Digital Market Outlook is segmented into Video-on-Demand, Digital Music, Video Games, and ePublishing.
The by far biggest market in 2017 was Video Games with US$63 billion in global1 revenue, a share of 57% of the whole Digital Media market. The Video Games market benefits highly from a desktop to mobile shift: Every 3rd USDollar in Digital Media is generated by Mobile Games.
172
Video-on-Demand is the fastest-growing Digital Media market with a CAGR2 of 7% up to 2022. Subscription-based services are the main reason for this over-proportional growth, whereas Pay-per-View and the Video Download services stagnate in almost every region. The next smaller segment is ePublishing, which is expected to grow to US$22 billion by 2022. A growth that is mainly driven by emerging markets. Digital Music is the smallest segment with a size of US$14 billion in 2017. The market totally depends on Music Streaming. This is due to the fact that Music Downloads is one of the very few shrinking markets in the digital economy, which underlines how mature the entire Digital Media market is.
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook 2: CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate / average growth rate per year
Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook
The media business had to endure difficult times when illegal distribution and downloads of digital content became common among users. This development especially threatened the music and video business and caused sales to decline. With changing customer behavior and their evolving demands, companies thus had to find new ways of monetizing their content. Customer requirements have become clear over time: Easy access to a wide range of media content at any time, in any place and at a good price. This need triggered the birth of online streaming and lending, a trend which can especially be observed in the rising popularity of music and video streaming as well as mobile gaming.
Companies such as Amazon, Apple, Netflix or Spotify have successfully responded to these needs and provide huge content libraries and convenient purchasing models to their customers. Some players even go a step further: For instance, Spotify as well as Netflix consider different living situations of customers and now offer single, family or student licenses.
173
Competition remains fierce in the Digital Media market and companies have to constantly reassess their business strategy to be ahead of their competitors. Netflix and Amazon for example are increasingly investing in the production of own and exclusive series and movies to decrease their dependency on production companies and to increase their competitive advantage. This strategy seems to pay off: Although Netflix has increased prices recently, it announced another big boost in streaming subscribers at the beginning of 2018. In the gaming business, big companies such as Nintendo participate in the huge and fast-growing field of Mobile Games by releasing their content on third-party platforms, be it in the form of own games or in cooperation with developers as franchise partners.
[email protected]
Digital Market Outlook: Digital Media
The global1 Digital Media market is expected to reach a value of US$146 billion by 2022 Global1 Digital Media revenue in billion US$
Video-on-Demand
101.4 17.8 10.0
19.8 11.2
21.7 12.1
127.0 23.5 12.8
Video Games
134.0 25.1 13.4
ePublishing
140.2 26.4 14.0
145.7 27.6 14.5
75.2
78.6
81.6
63.0
67.4
71.5
15.3
16.6
18.0
19.2
20.3
21.3
22.0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
58.3
174
110.7
119.2
Digital Music
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2018
Digital Market Outlook: Digital Media
The Mobile Games segment leads global1 Digital Media sales Global1 Digital Media revenue in billion US$ and segment revenue shares in 2017
19.8 Pay-per-View (TVoD) 19% Video Streaming (SVoD)
11.2 Music Download 26%
63.0
16.6 eBooks
Download Games 18% Mobile Games
Music Streaming
68% 61%
63% 74%
eMagazines Video Download (EST) 17%
175
ePapers
Online Games
Video-on-Demand Digital Music 1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook Note: Percentages refer to the individual segment columns Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2018
11%
21%
21%
Video Games
ePublishing
Digital Market Outlook: Digital Media
China and Germany show the highest growth in Digital Media revenues Top 5 Digital Media countries by market revenue in billion US$
2017
2016 39.8
United States
37.1 21.3
China
18.8 13.3
Japan
12.8 6.1
United Kingdom
Germany
176
5.8 3.7 3.3
Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2018
10%
7%
4%
13%
7%
Digital Market Outlook: Digital Media
The Digital Media landscape is split into content specialists and those with a diversified portfolio Selected digital media players by service and focus of value creation
VOD Pure Players
Diversified Players
177
Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2018
Digital Music
Video Games
ePublishing
Digital Market Outlook: Digital Media
Amazon is the preferred online video games provider Share of respondents who purchased online video games of selected providers
United States
Germany
United Kingdom
60%
45%
43%
178
44%
35%
28%
“Where have you spent money on online video games in the past 12 months (downloads, in-app purchases, subscriptions)?”; Multiple response; U.S.: n=931, DE: n=453, UK: n=600 respondents who play video games regularly and spent money on downloads, in-app purchases and subscriptions in the past 12 months Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
44%
31%
28%
Digital Market Outlook: Digital Media
Netflix in Germany still lacks customers over 50, while it is evenly popular among age groups in the U.S. Share of respondents who purchased video-on-demand services of selected providers by age
United States
Germany 18-29 years
74%
78%
30-49 years
50-64 years
74% 77%
53%
64%
56% 57% 56%
68%
63% 66%
All
63%
43%
38% 40%
47%
36% 25% 11%
179
“Which of these video-on-demand providers have you used in the past 12 months as a paying customer?”; Multiple response; U.S.: n=1,183, Germany: n=708 respondents who spent money on digital video content in the past 12 months Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
17% 15% 15% 11%
Digital Market Outlook: Digital Media
Amazon also tops the list of digital music services Share of respondents who use the digital music services of selected providers in the U.S.
52% 48% 44% 38% 32% 25% 14% 13% 9% 4%
180
“Which of these providers have you bought music downloads or streaming services from in the past 12 months?”; Multiple response; n=1,249 respondents who spent money on digital music content in the past 12 months Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook www.statista.io/fintech
FinTech The FinTech sector shows no signs of slowing down, as numerous start-ups continue to challenge the established value chains in banking and financial services. Common features of FinTech solutions are a fast transaction speed and high levels of automation and usability for customers and stakeholders.
following the projected annual growth rate of 18%. While China and the U.S. lead the FinTech market with transaction values of over US$1 trillion, Europe is lagging behind. There is an evolving FinTech start-up landscape in Europe, but market dynamics and pervasion of innovative FinTech solutions are not comparable to China or the U.S.
The FinTech market in Statista’s Digital Market Outlook includes the segments Digital Payments, financing platforms for small businesses or innovative projects (Alternative Financing), Alternative Lending for business purposes as well as Personal Finance services, such as automated private asset allocation and peer-to-peer money transfer.
Thanks to the global rise of smart devices and online (and mobile) shopping, the FinTech revolution is already in full swing in some areas, especially in the field of Digital Payments. Digital Payments contributed 80% to the worldwide FinTech transaction value in 2017. They are by far the largest FinTech segment and can be considered an evolutionary step towards further financial services that might even replace currently ubiquitous payment methods.
The global1 FinTech transaction value was US$3.4 trillion in 2017 and is expected to reach US$8 trillion by 2022,
181
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook
Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook
The most important driving force for the adoption of any FinTech innovation are minimal entrance barriers for both consumers and providers, as well as convenient handling, especially for people that are not tech savvy. Different cultural mindsets and the overall state of an economy also play a significant role in the speed of innovation in international comparison: While cash is still king in cautious Germany, mobile payments in China (e.g. Alipay and WeChatPay) have already reached offline stores and practically replaced cash as the most frequently used way of payment in everyday life. This is happening due to the country’s tech-savvy population, as well as the underdeveloped banking industry and a favorable regulatory environment. Alternative Lending is currently the second biggest FinTech segment, accounting for US$381 billion in global transaction value. Borrowing money from an online community instead of going to a bank (or family members) is gaining popularity especially in growing economies, where traditional bank
182
loans are less easy to get. The peer-to-peer lending sector in China has exploded in recent years and reached US$325billion in transaction value. It is forecast to grow even further, at an astonishing rate of 24% per year up to 2022.
Personal Finance, including Robo-Advisors, wrote US$273 billion in transactions in 2017. As common banks often fail to keep up with consumers’ expectations in terms of digital technology adoption, the broad spectrum of personal finance services that are emerging hold high disruption potential. Last but not the least, Alternative Financing is currently the smallest segment with a global transaction value of US$15 billion in 2017, but it shows a promising average annual growth rate of 33% up to 2022, as many entrepreneurs and small business owners are starting to recognize its benefits.
[email protected]
Digital Market Outlook: FinTech
The global1 FinTech market will grow to a striking US$8 trillion by 2022 Forecast of global1 FinTech transaction value in billion US$
Digital Payments
Alternative Financing
Alternative Lending
Personal Finance 5,411.4 4,920.5
4,381.4 3,818.9 3,265.2 2,753.7 2,311.4
263.9 161.4 10.1 2016
183
380.6 273.9 14.6 2017
502.6 437.2 20.6 2018
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
626.5 653.8 27.9 2019
749.0 36.6 2020
913.4
1,195.3 867.5 46.4 2021
1,482.2 978.4 57.2 2022
Digital Market Outlook: FinTech
Digital Commerce dominates the FinTech market Global1 FinTech transaction value in billion US$ and segment revenue shares in 2017 2,753.7 Digital Commerce
14.6 380.6 Crowdlending (Business)
273.9
RoboAdvisors
Crowdfunding 45%
77% 92%
82%
Crowdinvesting 55%
23% 8%
Mobile POS Payments
Digital Payments
184
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook Note: Percentages refer to the individual segment columns Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
Marketplace Lending
P2P Money Transfers
25% 18%
Alternative Financing Personal Finance Alternative Lending
Digital Market Outlook: FinTech
The Chinese FinTech market grew by 36% from 2016 to 2017 Top 5 FinTech countries by transaction value in billion US$
2017
1,182.3
China
870.8
1,039.0
United States
United Kingdom
Japan
Germany
185
2016
843.6 185.5
16%
159.7 151.1 135.5 117.2 104.5
Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
12%
12%
23%
36%
Digital Market Outlook: FinTech
The FinTech landscape is highly competitive with a lot of different players Selected players in the FinTech sector
186
Digital Payment
Alternative Financing
Alternative Lending
Personal Finance
Digital Commerce
CrowdFunding
CrowdLending
Robo-Advisors
Mobile POS Payments
CrowdInvesting
P2P Marketplace Lending
P2P Money Transfers
Source: Digital Market Outlook 2018
Digital Market Outlook: FinTech
28% of U.S. consumers would like to pay mobile at all times Relevance of mobile payment methods by situation in the U.S.
All the time
28%
In restaurants
17%
For everyday purchases
17%
In bars and cafés
17%
For minor purchases
14%
For admission tickets
13%
For public transportation
13%
For travel booking
12%
For major purchases
9%
Don’t know Other
6% 2%
Don’t want to pay with smartphone at all
187
"In what situations would you like to be able to pay with your smartphone (without debit / credit card or cash)?“; Multiple response; n=2,045 Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
31%
Digital Market Outlook: FinTech
Apple Pay is the most popular mobile payment method in the U.S., followed by Android Pay Share of respondents who use selected mobile payment methods by brand in the U.S.
11% 10% 9%
7% 6% 5% 4% 3%
188
"Which of these services have you used in the past 12 months to pay in stores, restaurants or other points of sale with your smartphone?”; Multiple response; n=2,045 respondents Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
Digital Market Outlook: FinTech
Younger generations in the U.S. tend to use more mobile payment than people above 45 Demographics of people that use mobile payment in the U.S.
Age
Gender
18-24 years
Income
20%
25-34 years
35-44 years
30% Male
55-64 years
189
High income
31%
Medium income
27%
Low income
39% 41%
45-54 years
42%
59%
Female
8%
3%
“How have you paid in stores, restaurants and other points of sale in the past 12 months?”; Multiple response; "What is your gender?“; "How old are you?“; "About how high is the monthly gross income that your total household disposes of, before tax and contributions?“; n=435, respondents who use mobile payment (via smartphone) at POS (past 12 months) Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
Digital Market Outlook: FinTech
RoboAdvisors hardly attract customers in Japan, Colombia has the highest potential Respondents who could imagine consulting a digital program (RoboAdvisor) for personal finance advice
Colombia Brazil China India Mexico South Africa Spain United States Turkey Argentina Indonesia Germany Canada United Kingdom Australia South Korea Poland Russian Federation Nigeria Sweden Morocco Austria France Finland Netherlands Italy Japan
190
2%
5%
6% 6%
7% 7%
9% 9%
13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10%
15% 15%
21% 20% 19% 18% 18% 17% 17%
“Which of these statements apply to you? / I could imagine consulting a digital program (RoboAdvisor) for advice on finance issues”; Multiple response; U.S., UK, DE, FR: n~2,000, all other countries n~1,000 Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
23%
Digital Market Outlook: FinTech
InsurTech: Motor insurance is the main driver for growth in the online insurance sector in the U.S. Number of policies sold online in millions per year
Life
Health
Motor
Property
Liability
214 191
24
168
23
28
146
21
24
126
20
20
108
19
16
17 10
13
78
67
2
12
2017
191
2
106
91
14
2018
Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2018
3
16
2019
3
17
2020
121
137
19 4
21 4
2021
2022
Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook www.statista.io/digitaladvertising
Digital Advertising Worldwide spending on Digital Advertising outreached TVad spending for the first time in 2017. Considering how great a role television used to play for generations of media consumers, this is quite a revolutionary development, which shows how important Digital Advertising has become. Statista’s Digital Market Outlook segments the Digital Advertising market according to the environment where the ads are played. In-page ads are categorized as Banner Ads, while in-stream ads – be it videos or text overlays – are considered Video Advertising. Together with Social Media Advertising, Search Advertising, and Online Classifieds, these five segments make up the Digital Advertising market. The dominating segment is Search Advertising with a global1 market volume of US$112 billion in 2017, making up a
192
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook
market share of 45%. With keywords as an underlying basis, Search Advertising enables marketers to reach a relevant target group in a very simple and precise way. These keywords can be complemented with a range of options like location-based factors, website and audience types, or remarketing based on user behavior. Social networks usually work with newsfeeds, where userspecific content and shared information are shown. This presents an ideal advertising environment that bears numerous opportunities for customized and personalized user targeting. But it also makes advertisers vulnerable to changes in algorithms, as can be seen now in shrinking Facebook traffic after their latest update. The global Social Media Advertising market size was about US$44 billion in 2017.
Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook
Although we can observe an advancement in the field of targeting solutions, Banner and Video Advertising still face the challenge of reaching the right audiences, as the advertising environment in their field is much more random than in social networks or search engines.
This difficulty is reflected in the market sizes of both Banner and Video Advertising: With a volume of US$47 billion, Banner Advertising has a share of only 19% of the total Digital Advertising market. As advertising spaces within video players are much more limited than Banner spaces, Video Advertising has an even smaller share of 11%, corresponding to a market volume of US$26 billion. Nevertheless, we believe that the development of targeting solutions is still in an early stage and once it is in full swing, it will have noticeable effects on the advertising market in general and the Digital Advertising market in particular. Furthermore, in the field of Banner Advertising, we are observing a positive impact of native ads, which match the environment in which they appear in terms of form and
193
function. In other words, these native ads appear as paragraphs within articles in a form and style which is similar to the content provided by the actual platform's editorial staff. This format works very well on smaller displays and is ideal for advertisements on mobile devices. The proximity to editorial contributions increases consumer engagement and the acceptance of the ads. Online Classifieds make the smallest contribution to overall market revenues with US$18 billion globally in 2017. Revenues are more or less equally distributed across categories like automotive, recruiting or real estate.
[email protected]
Digital Market Outlook: Digital Advertising
The global1 Digital Advertising market is expected to grow to almost US$400 billion by 2022 Global1 Digital Advertising revenue in billion US$
Banner Advertising
Video Advertising
Search Advertising
Social Media Advertising
376.3 348.7 315.6 281.4 247.9
51.0
211.8
47.3
42.0
31.5
26.3
21.2
36.6
2016
194
16.4
43.8 2017
36.9
141.6
127.5
112.4
95.6
56.6
51.3 18.2
20.1
2018
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
63.1
42.3
154.3
67.0 47.2
165.2
Classifieds
399.6 70.1 51.2
174.3
58.6
65.2
71.2
76.6
22.0
23.8
25.7
27.4
2019
2020
2021
2022
Digital Market Outlook: Digital Advertising
Mobile Advertising is gaining relevance in each category of the global1 Digital Advertising market Global1 Digital Advertising revenue in billion US$ and segment revenue shares in 2017 47.3 Banner Advertising Desktop
47%
Banner Advertising Mobile
53%
26.3 Video Advertising Mobile
112.4 Search Advertising Desktop 47%
52%
Video Advertising Desktop 48%
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook Note: Percentages refer to the individual segment columns Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
18.2 Jobs
19%
21%
Social Media Advertising Mobile
Motor 21%
Real Estate
Search Advertising Mobile
Banner Advertising Video Advertising
195
Social Media Advertising Desktop
43.8
81%
28%
53% General Advertising
Search Advertising
31%
Social Media Advertising Classifieds
Digital Market Outlook: Digital Advertising
Chinese Digital Advertising revenues increased by 27% from 2016 to 2017 Top 5 Digital Advertising countries by market revenue in billion US$
2017
2016 96.0
United States
82.2 62.4
China
49.1 17.3
United Kingdom
Japan
Germany
196
15.7 10.3 9.3 7.2 6.7
Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
8%
11%
10%
27%
17%
Digital Market Outlook: Digital Advertising
Digital Advertising is still a complex business with many players Selected players in the digital advertising sector
Marketer / Advertisers
Agencies and Trading Desks
Demand Side Platforms
Ad Networks / Ad Exchanges
Supply Side Platforms
Publishers Search Engines:
Social Networks:
Video Platforms:
Etc.
197
Source: Digital Market Outlook 2018
Digital Market Outlook: Digital Advertising
Pricing model distribution stays constant Share of total digital advertising revenue by pricing models in 2015 and 2016
Hybrid
Cost-Per-Mille 1
Cost-Per-Click 1%
2%
33%
35%
2015 65%
198
1: Cost-Per-Mille means the cost per 1,000 views / impressions Source: IAB, PwC
2016 64%
Digital Market Outlook: Digital Advertising
Google’s search engine is used by 91% of Americans Usage of search engines by brands in the U.S.
91% 40% 33% 17% 14% 12%
7% 6%
Other
5% None of the above
199
1%
“Which search engines have you used in the past 4 weeks?” ; Multiple response; n=2,023 Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
Digital Market Outlook: Digital Advertising
Number of native ads increased by >70% Percentage change in number of ad formats year-over-year
74%
28%
8% 0%
0% -8%
Native
200
Source: Mediaradar
Email
Mobile
Direct
Video
Digital
-12%
Programmatic
Digital Market Outlook: Digital Advertising
Spending on digital advertising has already outpaced TV-ad spending Worldwide digital and TV-ad spending in billion US$
TV
Digital 347.7
183.4
94.5
4.8 1998
201
2000
Source: Magna Global
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook www.statista.io/smarthome
Smart Home Smart Home and the Internet of Things (IoT) are irrevocably entwined and the IoT is one of the most disruptive trends at the moment, affecting a large number of traditional industries. The rising number of connected devices and sensors can be controlled via smart algorithms such as machine learning tools and together form the IoT. The use of the IoT in the context of private households defines a Smart Home. The possibilities to automate processes in the domestic context are almost unlimited.
In Statista’s Digital Market Outlook we divide the Smart Home market into the segments Control and Connectivity, Comfort and Lighting, Security, Home Entertainment, Energy Management, and Smart Appliances. The biggest Smart Home market in 2017 was the U.S. with revenues of US$15 billion. Although the prospects are positive, U.S. growth
202
1: CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate / average growth rate per year
rates of an expected 16% annually are significantly lower than the Chinese CAGR1 of 45%. But currently, the Chinese market is still small with revenues of US$4 billion. Devices in a Smart Home are seldom used separately. Customers don’t want to switch devices and technologies when controlling their home entertainment or security systems, for example. At the same time, they like to have access to certain services like music streaming in all life situations, be it in their home, in the car, or on their phone. Thus, it is necessary for companies in the Smart Home field to work on compatibility between services across industries. Accordingly, the Smart Home field offers revenue opportunities for countless industries, such as insurance or eCommerce.
Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook
The predominant use case for insurers in the context of Smart Home are usage-based insurances. The idea is simple: People who live responsibly should pay less to their provider than people who are more likely to be in the need for an insurance service. A few years ago, such usage-based approaches were not possible, but with the introduction of a variety of sensors, they are today. The IoT allows insurers to identify risky and dangerous behavior and measure how often people behave that way. Thereby, insurance coverage becomes more accurate. Obviously both sides benefit: Customers may benefit from lower fees and insurance providers receive fewer claims. The only problematic aspect that remains is data security. This leads to slower adoption rates in countries where privacy concerns are taken seriously, for example in Germany. The second big field which Smart Home technology adds an interesting twist to is eCommerce. The recent trend towards dash buttons and smart speakers shows how convenient it
203
can be for customers to re-order everyday household goods like toilet paper or laundry care with a single click on a button or a command to their smart speaker. Yet, this is not the end of the line. As eCommerce players gather more and more data on consumer purchasing behavior, it is only a matter of time until they are able to automatically deliver products to people’s doorsteps without them actually having to order. These are only a few examples of possible ways in which Smart Home technology will possibly be integrated into a broader context in the future.
[email protected]
Digital Market Outlook: Smart Home
The global1 Smart Home market will more than triple, reaching US$113 billion by 2022 Global1 Smart Home revenue from 2016 to 2022 in billion US$
Control and Connectivity
Home Entertainment
Comfort and Lighting
Security
Smart Appliances
Energy Management
112.8 95.7 78.2 14.7
61.4
11.8
16.4
9.1
13.0
10.6
10.0 6.8
8.6
46.3
4.9
23.5
3.8 2.2
2.0
2016
204
5.1 5.5
33.4 6.8 7.3 2.8
8.2
2017
5.2 3.1
12.0 4.4
3.9
2018
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
22.1
16.7 6.0
2019
5.2
17.5 19.9
20.2
23.7 14.9
12.7 27.6
32.6
7.8 6.6
9.8
11.9
8.1
9.5
2020
2021
2022
Digital Market Outlook: Smart Home
Integrated Appliances are the biggest category across all Smart Home segments in terms of global1 sales Global1 Smart Home revenue in billion US$ and segment revenue shares in 2017 6.8 stand-alone 3%
7.3
stand10% alone
97%
standalone
5.2 24%
8.2
3.1
2.8
7%
10%
9%
stand-alone
standalone
standalone
93%
90%
91%
90% 76%
integrated Control and Connectivity
205
integrated Security
integrated
integrated
Home Entertainment
Smart Appliances
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook Note: Percentages refer to the individual segment columns Integrated Smart Home: A households that is equipped with a central gateway and devices from at least two Smart Home segments Stand-alone Smart Home: An isolated application, where a central control unit is not necessary. Only devices from one Smart Home segment. Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
integrated integrated Comfort and Energy Lighting Management
Digital Market Outlook: Smart Home
The Smart Home market is surging in all top 5 countries, with China showing the highest rate of 72% Top 5 Smart Home countries by market revenue in billion US$
2017
15.4
United States
11.9 3.8
China
Japan
Germany
United Kingdom
206
2016
2.2 2.0 1.4 2.0 1.3 1.9 1.3
Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
46%
50%
49%
72%
29%
Digital Market Outlook: Smart Home
More and more players with different backgrounds are entering the Smart Home market Selected players from the Smart Home sector
Control and Connectivity Dedicated Smart Home companies
Players entering the market from other industries
207
Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2018
Comfort and Lighting
Security
Home Entertainment
Energy Management
Smart Appliances
Digital Market Outlook: Smart Home
Alexa devices dominate the smart speaker landscape – Google is on the rise Top five smart speaker brands by country
Alexa Amazon Echo
15.4%
Google Home
7.7%
Google Assistant Amazon Echo
8.2%
Google Home
3.1%
Lenovo Smart Assistant
2.5%
Lenovo Smart Assistant
Panasonic SC-GA10
2.3%
Sonos One
0.8%
Sony LF-S50G
2.0%
Sony LF-S50G
0.7%
Amazon Echo Google Home
5.9% 1.2%
1.2%
Amazon Echo
1.5%
Google Home
1.3%
Lenovo Smart Assistant
0.5%
Sony LF-S50G
0.5%
Sonos One
0.4%
Sonos One
0.4%
Sony LF-S50G
0.3%
JBL LINK-Serie
0.4%
208
“Which connected speaker with an integrated virtual assistant do you own?”; Multiple response; US: n=1,611, UK: n=1,818, DE: n=1,916, FR: n=1,963 Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
Digital Market Outlook: Smart Home
Denmark is Europe’s Smart Home leader with almost 20% of overall households being smart in 2017 Forecast of the Smart Home share in all households in 2017
Denmark
18%
Netherlands
16%
United Kingdom
15%
Germany
12%
Austria
12%
Switzerland
11%
France
7%
Spain
5%
Italy Poland
209
4% 1%
Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
Digital Market Outlook: Smart Home
The market for Smart Home products is expected to grow by 28% annually between 2017 and 2022 Estimated revenue for Smart Home products worldwide in billion US$
112.8 2022
33.4 2017
CAGR1: +28%
210
1: CAGR: Compound annual growth rate / average growth rate per year Source: Statista Smart Home Report 2017
Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook www.statista.io/connectedcar
Connected Car Increasing internet penetration inevitably leads to a rise in digital services. This development has also reached the automotive industry. OEMs equip their cars with digital components that are meant to increase safety and convenience. By applying fees and collecting data, OEMs aim at getting their slice of the revenue cake, too. We define connected cars as vehicles that have a permanent internet connection via an embedded SIM card1. We divide the Connected Car market into a single-fee hardware segment (Connected Hardware) and subscriptionbased service segments (Safety & Security, Maintenance & Diagnostics, and Infotainment). In 2017, more than 16 million connected cars were newly registered, which added to a total of 43 million vehicles on
211
1: eSIM 2: CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate / average growth rate per year
the roads worldwide. Together they generated an overall revenue of US$25 billion.
Comparing the three major car markets in the world, the U.S., Europe and China, the U.S. showed highest revenues and the largest stock of connected cars on national roads. Europe was the second biggest region, but driven by recent changes to EU legislation requiring every newly registered car to be connected, the number of connected cars is going to rise dramatically in the future. China lags behind Europe and the U.S., but growth rates are the highest. This growth is partly initiated by strong alliances between OEMs and Chinese internet giants. BMW and Alibaba, for example, have announced to integrate smart home technology with every BMW sold in China from 2018 on.
Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook
Virtual assistants are a valuable tool to connect cars and homes, but also to provide information and intelligently assist while driving. Therefore, OEMs are currently eager to include artificial intelligence in their cars. Ford, for example, has already started to integrate Amazon's Alexa into their vehicles.
The development of self-driving car technology is another promising way of using vehicle connectivity. Some OEMs, like Tesla or Audi, have already achieved substantial progress in this field. Self-driving cars will be the next level of driver-assistance technology. Thanks to intelligent hardand software and extensive vehicle interconnection, there will be no more need for drivers to have the steering control. Technology is less prone to errors, which is expected to increase road safety. Nonetheless: As long as it remains unclear who will be responsible in the event of an autonomous car causing a crash due to errors or malfunctioning, driverless vehicles will not enter the automotive mass market. This is one issue that governments worldwide will have to deal with in the upcoming years.
212
In the future, technologically advanced cars are expected to carry close to 200 connected sensors. Inter-connection of components will not only take place inside cars but also between cars and their environment – as part of the socalled vehicle-to-everything communication. Connected cars will share data with each other, making it possible to optimize urban traffic management and making it a lot safer to drive a car. For now however, technology can only advise and assist in the form of alerts or initiated actions. The final action still has to be carried out by the driver, who reacts to the received information.
[email protected]
Digital Market Outlook: Connected Car
The global1 Connected Car market is expected to increase five-fold by 2021 Estimated global1 Connected Car revenue in billion US$
Connected Hardware
Vehicle Services
Infotainment Services
81.6 67.7 54.3 71.8
40.8 60.3 49.0
24.9 37.4
16.1 10.3
213
14.8
22.8
9.6 0.6 0.1
1.1 0.2
1.7 0.4
2.8 0.7
2015
2016
2017
2018
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
4.2
1.1
2019
5.9
1.5
2020
1.9 7.9 2021
Digital Market Outlook: Connected Car
Embedded Telematics is by far the dominating segment in the global1 Connected Car market Global1 Connected Car revenue in billion US$ and segment revenue shares in 2017 22.9
eCall Technology 25%
75%
Connected Hardware
214
Safety and Security 16%
Maintenance and Diagnostics 84%
Embedded Telematics
1: Only includes countries listed in Statista‘s Digital Market Outlook Note: Percentages refer to the individual segment columns Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
0.4 1.7
60%
Advanced Navigation
Entertainment
34%
Comfort Services
6%
Vehicle Services Infotainment Services Infotainment Services
Digital Market Outlook: Connected Car
China and Japan grew by more than 60% between 2016 and 2017 Top 5 Connected Car countries by market revenue in billion US$
2017
8.2
United States
5.8 3.0
China
1.8 2.6
Germany
1.9 1.9
United Kingdom
Japan
215
2016
1.3 1.7 1.0
Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2017
42%
69%
65%
37%
41%
Digital Market Outlook: Connected Car
Several OEMs plan on integrating virtual assistants into their cars Offered sources for digital services and virtual assistants by selected automotive manufacturers
OEMS
Proprietary services
Foreign app integration
Virtual assistants
Smartphone mirroring
Available
Announced Not available
216
Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2018
The German company Bosch submitted more than 950 patents for the autonomous driving segment Number of autonomous driving patent filings worldwide between 2010 and July 2017
Bosch
958
Audi
516
Continental
439
Ford
402
General Motors BMW
Toyota
217
380 370 362
VW
343
Daimler
339
Google
338
Source: IW Köln; WIPO
Digital Market Outlook: Connected Car
Almost 80% of millennials are likely to buy a car with new technology Consumers who are likely to buy a car with new technology1 in the next 24 months in the U.S. in 2017
Likely
Neutral
Unlikely
79% 66%
45%
42%
17% 12%
Millennials
218
17%
39%
36%
19%
19%
Baby boomers
Older
9%
Generation X
1: Wi-Fi, vehicle-maintenance alert system, vehicle-theft tracking, built-in entertainment system, automated emergency roadside assistance, driver coaching tools such as speed alerts, Apple / Android compatibility, assisted-driving features or self-driving capabilities. Source: Willis Towers Watson
Digital Market Outlook: Connected Car
Entertainment is the most popular connected service among U.S.-American drivers Usage of connected services by U.S.-American drivers
Entertainment services (e.g. music streaming inside the car)
32%
Safety & security (e.g. automated notification of roadside assistance)
29%
Advanced navigation / Real-time traffic information
27%
Maintenance & diagnostics (e.g. web-based report about the car) Comfort services (e.g. remote or online assistance)
26%
22%
None of the above
219
“Which of these online-based services by your car manufacturer do you use?” ; Multiple response; n=1,909 respondents who have a car available in their household Source: Statista Global Consumer Survey 2018
46%
Imprint
About Statista’s Digital Market Outlook 8 markets, 33 segments & 85 sub-segments eCommerce Fashion, Electronics & Media, Food & Personal Care, Furniture & Appliances, Toys, Hobby & DIY
Details FinTech Digital Payments, Alternative Financing, Alternative Lending, Personal Finance
eServices
Connected Car
Event Tickets, Fitness, Dating Services, Food Delivery
Connected Hardware, Vehicle Services, Infotainment Services
50 countries and regions
›
User count & penetration
›
Comparable data
Direct access & downloads 7-year coverage: 2016 – 2022 Revenue forecasts
Smart Home
eTravel Online Travel Booking, Mobility Services
Control and Connectivity, Comfort and Lighting, Security, Home Entertainment, Energy Management, Smart Appliances
Digital Media
Digital Advertising
Video-on-Demand, Digital Music, Video Games, ePublishing
Banner Ads, Video Ads, Search Ads, Social Media Ads, Classifieds
Exclusive part of the Statista Corporate Account
Access to more than 1,000,000 statistics and all digital markets more information
220
› › › ›
Statista Global Consumer Survey Expert tool: DIY analysis, cross-tabulation, customized target groups, export to CSV
▪ Retail & eCommerce ▪ Digital media & marketing
▪ Cars & mobility ▪ Personal finance & FinTech
64,000+ Consumers
▪ Age, gender, occupation ▪ Frequency of internet usage
▪ Devices used ▪ Premium / luxury relevance
27 Countries
USA | Germany | France | UK | China | India | Spain | Brazil
50+ Topics & Industries
700+ Brands
221
Nigeria | Russia | Argentina | etc.
Browse the Global Consumer Survey on www.statista.com
Statista Research & Analysis Market research – Market Analyses – Data Modeling
MORE INFORMATION:
Statista Research & Analysis is a provider of comprehensive services in the fields of market research and market analysis. Building upon our experience as one of the world's leading statistics portals, our analyst team will support you in the collection and evaluation of market, client and competitive information – tailored to your individual request. Our team consists of former top management consultants, accomplished market researchers and business analysts.
Quantitative & qualitative market research
In-depth analysis and company profiles Niels Terfehr
Director Research & Analysis
Data modeling for market sizing and forecasts
Find out more on www.statista-research.com 222
TEL
+49 40 282441 852
E-MAIL
[email protected]
Research & Analysis
Statista Content & Information Design Infographics – Videos – PowerPoint – Corporate Publishing – Microsites
We are an information design agency who will support and assist you along the entire path from the brainstorming stage via the research phase to the graphic conversion and distribution of your project. Thanks to our access to over 18,000 sources, our team of editors and design experts will visualize any topic for you.
Editorial storytelling and processing
Professional infographics and presentations
Microsites, videos and corporate publishing
Request your introductory offer now on: www.statista-content-design.com 223
Content & Information Design
Imprint
Imprint Contacts and authors
Sebastian Buss
Kathrin Schreiber
Felix Richter
Felix Wegener
Theresa Berthelmann
Mathias Brandt
Geeske Nöldeke
Ksenia Striapunina
Martin Armstrong
Philipp Huhn
Dennis Becker
Niall McCarthy
E-MAIL
[email protected]
WEB statista.com/outlook
Released: March 2018 Imprint Statista ▪ Johannes-Brahms-Platz 1 ▪ 20355 Hamburg ▪ +49 40 413 49 89 0 ▪ www.statista.com Disclaimer This study is based on survey and research data of the previously mentioned sources. The forecasts and market analyses presented were researched and prepared by Statista with great care. For the presented survey data, estimations and forecasts, Statista cannot assume warranty of any kind. Surveys and forecasts contain information not naturally representing a reliable basis for decisions in individual cases and may be in need of further interpretation. Therefore, Statista is not liable for any damage arising from the use of statistics and data provided in this report.
224