Stephen Baxter talk - UK SETI Research Network

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Interstellar Spaceprobes and. Encounters with Extraterrestrial. Intelligence. Stephen Baxter, BIS. NAM 2013. St Andrews, Jul 2013. Ref: JBIS 66, 51-‐60, 2013.
Interstellar  Spaceprobes  and   Encounters  with  Extraterrestrial   Intelligence     Stephen  Baxter,  BIS   NAM  2013   St  Andrews,  Jul  2013     Ref:  JBIS  66,  51-­‐60,  2013.  

Roadmap:   How  could  (and  should)  we  prepare  a  general-­‐purpose   interstellar  probe  for  the  possibility  of  the  detec=on  of   (and/or  contact  with)  ETI  (extraterrestrial  intelligence)   at  the  target  system?     •  Background  and  assumpFons   •  DetecFon  by  probe  of  ETI   •  ...  Or  of  probe  by  ETI   •  OpFons  aNer  detecFon  /  contact   •  Policies  

About  me...  

• Sf  

About  me...  

• Sf   • Project  Icarus  (BIS)  –   successor  to  Project   Daedalus  (1970s)  

About  me...  

• Sf   • Project  Icarus   • SETI  –  Post-­‐detecFon   Task  Group  

Spaceprobes  and   ETI  -­‐  Precedents:  

• Voyager  and   Pioneer   • Daedalus  

Precedent:   Greg  Bear,   Queen  of  Angels,   1990     -­‐  A  smart   interstellar   probe  

Precedent:   Greg  Bear,   Queen  of  Angels,   1990  

Precedent:   Greg  Bear,  Queen   of  Angels,  1990   • Smart  AI   • Formula=on   • Detec=on   • Follow-­‐up   inves=ga=on   • Interpreta=on   • Contact  ...  

AssumpFons   •  ETI  exists  in  target  system  

AssumpFons   •  ETI  exists  in  target  system  AND   •  ETI  not  previously  detected  from  Earth  

AssumpFons   •  ETI  exists  in  target  system  AND   •  ETI  not  previously  detected  from  Earth  AND   •  ETI  detectable  by  probe  

AssumpFons   •  •  •  • 

ETI  exists  in  target  system  AND   ETI  not  previously  detected  from  Earth  AND   ETI  detectable  by  probe   ...  OR  probe  detectable  by  ETI  

Examples:

   

 

• Dolphin  philosophers  

Examples:

   

 

• Dolphin  philosophers   •   Pre-­‐detectable-­‐tech   civilisaFons  

Examples:

   

 

• Dolphin  philosophers   •   Pre-­‐detectable-­‐tech   civilisaFons   •   Post-­‐detectable-­‐tech   civilisaFons  

Detec=on  of  ETI  is   a  low-­‐probability,   high-­‐impact  event:    

Detec=on  of  ETI  is   a  low-­‐probability,   high-­‐impact  event:   • Enhance  probe   design  rather  than   dictate  it  

Detec=on  of  ETI  is   a  low-­‐probability,   high-­‐impact  event:   • Enhance  probe   design  rather  than   dictate  it   •   Moore’s  Law  –   advanced  AI  assumed  

Detec=on  of  ETI  is   a  low-­‐probability,   high-­‐impact  event:   • Enhance  probe   design  rather  than   dictate  it   •   Moore’s  Law  –   advanced  AI  assumed   • Add  soNware  analysis   suites  

Could  a  probe  detect  ETI?   •  ElectromagneFc  signals   •  Evidence  on  planets   •  Spacebound  artefacts  /  acFviFes    

Detec=on:  EM   Signals   • Earth  leakage  –   Arecibo  =  0.81  ly     (L.  Scheffer,  ‘Aliens  Can   Watch  “I  Love  Lucy”’,   Contact  in  Context  2  (1),   2004)  

 

Detec=on:  EM   Signals   • Earth  leakage  –   Arecibo  =  0.81  ly     • Arecibo  d~300m,   Daedalus  d~40m    

Detec=on:  EM   Signals   • Earth  leakage  –   Arecibo  =  0.81  ly     • Arecibo  d~300m,   Daedalus  d~40m   • Detectability  ~0.1  ly  =   6800AU  

Detec=on:  EM   Signals   • Earth  leakage  –   Arecibo  =  0.81  ly     • Arecibo  d~300m,   Daedalus  d~40m   • Detectability  ~0.1  ly  =   6800AU   • Add  signal  analysis   suite  to  comms,  radio   astronomy    

Detec=on:   Planetary  features   • Atmospheric  analysis   • City  lights   • Structures  incl   archaeological  traces      

Detec=on:  Surface   features   • StaFsFcal   classificaFon   algorithms  applied  to   satellite  data      

Detec=on:  Surface   features   • StaFsFcal   classificaFon   algorithms  applied  to   satellite  data   • SyntheFc  Aperture   Radar  (SAR),   Polarimetric  SAR      

Detec=on:  Surface   features   • StaFsFcal   classificaFon   algorithms  applied  to   satellite  data   • SyntheFc  Aperture   Radar  (SAR),   Polarimetric  SAR   • DecomposiFon   algorithms   • M.J.  Carlojo,  JBIS  60,   pp28-­‐38,  2007.      

Detec=on:  Surface   features   • StaFsFcal   classificaFon   algorithms  applied  to   satellite  data   • SyntheFc  Aperture   Radar  (SAR),   Polarimetric  SAR   • DecomposiFon   algorithms   • Add  detec=on   algorithms  to  back  up   sensor  suite  

Detec=on:   Spacebound   artefacts  /  ac=vi=es   • Points  of  stability:   Lagrange  points,   synchronous  orbit      

Detec=on:   Spacebound   artefacts  /  ac=vi=es   • Points  of  stability:   Lagrange  points,   synchronous  orbit   • Resource-­‐rich   regions:  asteroid  belt,   Kuiper  belt    

Detec=on:   Spacebound   artefacts  /  ac=vi=es   • Points  of  stability:   Lagrange  points,   synchronous  orbit   • Resource-­‐rich   regions:  asteroid  belt,   Kuiper  belt   •   Add  searches  for   artefacts,  infra-­‐red   hotspots    

Could  a  probe  detect  ETI?     Key  conclusion:   •  DetecFon  is  possible...   •  But  late  in  mission   •  Local  decision-­‐making  essenFal  

Could  ETI  detect  the  probe?   •  Probe  passive  (orbiFng)   •  Probe  under  power  (launch,  deceleraFon)   •  Probe  cruising  (0.1c?)    

Visibility:  probe   passive   • Artefact  searches   • Spaceguard   • NEAT  (JPL)   • Bell  Aerospace   Near  Earth  Object   Survey  spacecraN  -­‐   objects  >140m    

 

Visibility:  probe   under  power   • AnFmajer  rocket:   opFcal,  ~100ly   • Magsail:  radio,  ~100ly   • Fusion  rocket:  X-­‐rays,   ~1ly       (Zubrin,  JBIS  49,   pp297-­‐302,  1996)        

Visibility:  lightsails        

 

Visibility:  cruising   • Bow  shock  in  ISM:   ~10ly   G.  Benford,  ‘Bow   shock’,  Jim  Baen’s   Universe,  June  2006            

 

Could  ETI  detect  the  probe?   •  Tenta=ve  Conclusion:    If  they  exist,  they  may   well  see  us.    

OpFons  on  DetecFon   •  Science   •  Contact  possibiliFes   •  Security  implicaFons    

Post-­‐detec=on:   science   • Signal  analysis   (J.  Ellioj,  IAC  -­‐08  -­‐A4.2.5,   2008.)  

  • Archaeological   analysis   • Report  back          

Post-­‐detec=on:   aIempt  contact   • Plaques  and  records            

 

Post-­‐detec=on:   aIempt  contact   • Plaques  and  records   • Reflect  ETI  signals         D.  Lunan,  Man  and  the   Stars,  1974.  

         

Post-­‐detec=on:   security  implica=ons    

Post-­‐detec=on:   security  implica=ons      

Post-­‐detec=on:   security  implica=ons   • J.  Diamond,  The  Third   Chimpanzee,  1992   • Pascalian  wagers  (M.   Rees,  Our  Final   Century,  2003.)    

Security  op=ons   • Stealth  propulsion,   trajectory   • Offer  no  threat  (lasers,   appearance  of  KE   weapons)   • No  reply   • No  maps!   • Self  destrucFon    

Pre-­‐launch  policy  opFons:  

Model:  The  First  SETI  Protocol:     •  ‘DeclaraFon  of  Principles  Concerning  AcFviFes   Following  the  DetecFon  of  Extraterrestrial   Intelligence’  (M.  Michaud  and  J.  Tarter,  eds  (1990),  special  issue  of   Acta  Astronau=ca:  SETI  Post  Detec=on  Protocol,  v21  no  2.)    

First  SETI  Protocol:     Content  –   •  ScienFfic  responsibility     •  Responsible  reporFng  to  authoriFes,  public   •  Respond  only  on  consensual  basis     •  Manage  event  for  benefit  of  all  mankind   •  Duty  not  to  imperil  mankind  

Towards  a  probe  /  ETI  protocol?     •  First  SETI  Protocol  as  precedent:   –   Developed  by  concerned  individuals     –   Agreement  between  researchers,  insFtuFons   –   ScienFfic  responsibility   –   Transparency  of  process   –   Duty  to  share  benefits   –   Duty  not  to  imperil  mankind      

Conclusion:  

Conclusion:   • Low  probability,  high   impact  –  remiss  not  to  look  

Conclusion:   • Low  probability,  high   impact  –  remiss  not  to  look   • Design  studies:  include   minimal  ETI  detecFon   capability  

Conclusion:   • Low  probability,  high   impact  –  remiss  not  to  look   • Design  studies:  include   minimal  ETI  detecFon   capability   • Before  launch:  policy   extension  discussions  in   SETI  community  and   beyond  

Conclusion:   • Low  probability,  high   impact  –  remiss  not  to  look   • Design  studies:  include   minimal  ETI  detecFon   capability   • Before  launch:  policy   extension  discussions  in   SETI  community  and   beyond   • Above  all...  

...Be  prepared!