Supplement of Biogeosciences, 13, 441–454, 2016 http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/441/2016/ doi:10.5194/bg-13-441-2016-supplement © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
Supplement of Potential future fisheries yields in shelf waters: a model study of the effects of climate change and ocean acidification S. M. van Leeuwen et al. Correspondence to: S. M. van Leeuwen (
[email protected])
The copyright of individual parts of the supplement might differ from the CC-BY 3.0 licence.
Supplementary materials North Dogger
1700 1680 1660 1640 1620 1600 1580 1560
(e)
Detritivore biomass [g WW/m2]
3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4
110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40
Fish predation mortality [g WW/m2]
(i)
2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
(g)
Flagel-lates
PicoPhytoDinoPlankton flagellates
Small Phaeocystis Diatoms colonies
Planktonic fish food supply [mg C/m2 ], depth integrated
Temp. Low Medium High 2009
2039 years
2069
Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
Low Medium High Temp. 2039 years
2069
Low Medium High Temp. 2039 years
2069
2099
Benthic biomass Temperature Low Medium
change [%]
(h)
2099
Fish predation mortality [g WW/m2], ND
2009
(f)
2099
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
2009
(d)
2099
Detritivore biomass [g WW/m2]
8 6 4 2 0 −2 −4 −6 −8 Epibenthos
(j)
4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0
140 130 120 110 100 90 80
Suspension feeders
Meiobenthos
Benthic predators Low Medium High Temp.
2009
2039 years
2069
2099
detritivore growth [-]
0.70 0.68 0.66 0.64 0.62 0.60 0.58 0.56 0.54 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0J
Deposit feeders
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
Planktonic fish food supply [mg C/m3]
(c)
(b)
detritivore growth [-]
Temperature Low Medium
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
Phytoplankton biomass, depth integrated
change [%]
15 10 5 0 −5 −10 −15 Diatoms
Detritivore predation mortality [g WW/m2]
(a)
Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
2099
Averaged annual signal for Fish yield [g WW/m2] Current Temp+High
F
M
A
M
J
J time
A
S
O
N
D
J
Detritivore predation mortality [g WW/m2], ND Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
2099
Figure S1: North Dogger: 30-year averaged values, climatic plus lower trophic level ocean acidification effects (CC + LTL OA): (a) phytoplankton changes [%] (only OA effects), (b) benthos changes [%] (only OA effects), both 2069-2098 change compared to 1979-2009, (c) plankton-based fish food, (d) fish or pelagic predator biomass, (e) detritivore biomass, (f) detritivore growth rates, (g) fish yield, (h) annual fish yield signal for the current time (1979-2008 climate scenario) and the high impact scenario (2069-2098 climatic plus LTL acidification effects) signal,(i) predated biomass for pelagic predators and (j) predated biomass for detritivores. Note that figures (a) and (b) do not include temperature effects: as they are the same as those in the main paper we present them without climate effects to highlight acidification effects.
Oyster Grounds
5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8
Detritivore biomass [g WW/m2]
(e)
1670 1665 1660 1655 1650 1645 1640 1635
(i)
PicoPhytoDinoPlankton flagellates
Small Phaeocystis Diatoms colonies Temp. Low Medium High
2009
2039 years
2069
Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
2009
Fish predation mortality [g WW/m2], OG
Low Medium High Temp. 2039 years
2069
Low Medium High Temp.
35 30 2009
2039 years
2069
2099
Benthic biomass Temperature Low Medium
change [%]
(h)
2099
40
25
(f)
2099
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
45
(d)
2099
Detritivore biomass [g WW/m2]
2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5
Fish predation mortality [g WW/m2]
(g)
Flagel-lates
Planktonic fish food supply [mg C/m2 ], depth integrated
0.4 0.2 0.0 −0.2 −0.4 −0.6 −0.8 −1.0 Epibenthos
(j)
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2
180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100
Suspension feeders
Meiobenthos
Benthic predators Low Medium High Temp.
2009
2039 years
2069
2099
detritivore growth [-]
0.60 0.58 0.56 0.54 0.52 0.50 0.48 0.46 0.44 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5J
Deposit feeders
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
Planktonic fish food supply [mg C/m3]
(c)
(b)
detritivore growth [-]
Temperature Low Medium
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
Phytoplankton biomass, depth integrated
change [%]
15 10 5 0 −5 −10 −15 −20 Diatoms
Detritivore predation mortality [g WW/m2]
(a)
Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
2099
Averaged annual signal for Fish yield [g WW/m2] Current Temp+High
F
M
A
M
J
J time
A
S
O
N
D
J
Detritivore predation mortality [g WW/m2], OG Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
2099
Figure S2: 30-year averaged values, climatic plus lower trophic level ocean acidification effects (CC + LTL OA): (a) phytoplankton changes [%] (only OA effects), (b) benthos changes [%] (only OA effects), both 2069-2098 change compared to 1979-2009, (c) plankton-based fish food, (d) fish or pelagic predator biomass, (e) detritivore biomass, (f) detritivore growth rates, (g) fish yield, (h) annual fish yield signal for the current time (1979-2008 climate scenario) and the high impact scenario (2069-2098 climatic plus LTL acidification effects) signal,(i) predated biomass for pelagic predators and (j) predated biomass for detritivores. Note that figures (a) and (b) do not include temperature effects: as they are the same as those in the main paper we present them without climate effects to highlight acidification effects.
Southern Bight (Sean Gas Field)
2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4
Detritivore biomass [g WW/m2]
(e)
980 960 940 920 900 880 860 840
(i)
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 40 35 30 25 20 15 10
Fish predation mortality [g WW/m2]
(g)
Flagel-lates
PicoPhytoDinoPlankton flagellates
Small Phaeocystis Diatoms colonies
Planktonic fish food supply [mg C/m2 ], depth integrated
Temp. Low Medium High 2009
2039 years
2069
Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
Low Medium High Temp. 2039 years
2069
Low Medium High Temp. 2039 years
2069
2099
Benthic biomass Temperature Low Medium
change [%]
(h)
2099
Fish predation mortality [g WW/m2], SB
2009
(f)
2099
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
2009
(d)
2099
Detritivore biomass [g WW/m2]
0 −1 −2 −3 −4 −5 −6 −7 −8 −9 Epibenthos
(j)
2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5
85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45
Suspension feeders
Meiobenthos
Benthic predators Low Medium High Temp.
2009
2039 years
2069
2099
detritivore growth [-]
0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 J
Deposit feeders
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
Planktonic fish food supply [mg C/m3]
(c)
(b)
detritivore growth [-]
Temperature Low Medium
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
Phytoplankton biomass, depth integrated
Detritivore predation mortality [g WW/m2]
20 10 0 −10 −20 −30 Diatoms
change [%]
(a)
Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
2099
Averaged annual signal for Fish yield [g WW/m2] Current Temp+High
F
M
A
M
J
J time
A
S
O
N
D
J
Detritivore predation mortality [g WW/m2], SB Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
2099
Figure S3: 30-year averaged values, climatic plus lower trophic level ocean acidification effects (CC + LTL OA): (a) phytoplankton changes [%] (only OA effects), (b) benthos changes [%] (only OA effects), both 2069-2098 change compared to 1979-2009, (c) plankton-based fish food, (d) fish or pelagic predator biomass, (e) detritivore biomass, (f) detritivore growth rates, (g) fish yield, (h) annual fish yield signal for the current time (1979-2008 climate scenario) and the high impact scenario (2069-2098 climatic plus LTL acidification effects) signal,(i) predated biomass for pelagic predators and (j) predated biomass for detritivores. Note that figures (a) and (b) do not include temperature effects: as they are the same as those in the main paper we present them without climate effects to highlight acidification effects.
North Dogger
100 90 80 70 60 50 40
Fish predation mortality [g WW/m2]
(i)
2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
(g)
Detritivore biomass [g WW/m2] Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
2099
Fish yield [g WW/m2] Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
Low Medium High Temp. 2039 years
2069
(h)
2099
Fish predation mortality [g WW/m2], ND
2009
(f)
2099
(j)
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
Low Medium High Temp. 2009
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0J
110 100 90 80 70 60 50
2039 years
2069
2099
detritivore growth [-]
0.64 0.62 0.60 0.58 0.56 0.54 0.52 0.50 0.48
detritivore growth [-]
Detritivore biomass [g WW/m2]
3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8
Detritivore predation mortality [g WW/m2]
(e)
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
(d)
Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
2099
Averaged annual signal for Fish yield [g WW/m2] Current Temp+High
F
M
A
M
J
J time
A
S
O
N
D
J
Detritivore predation mortality [g WW/m2], ND Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
2099
Figure S4: 30-year averaged values, climatic plus higher trophic level ocean acidification effects (CC + HTL OA): (d) fish or pelagic predator biomass, (e) detritivore biomass, (f) detritivore growth rates, (g) fish yield, (h) annual fish yield signal for the current time (1979-2008 climate scenario) and the high impact scenario (2069-2098 climatic plus HTL acidification effects) signal, (i) predated biomass for pelagic predators and (j) predated biomass for detritivores. Note that subfigures a, b and c (related to the lower trophic level model) do not change in this scenario except for climatic effects: figure notation has been kept the same as those used in other figures for easy comparison.
Oyster Grounds
(i)
44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30
Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
2069
Low Medium High Temp. 2039 years
2069
2099
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
2039 years
2069
2099
detritivore growth [-] Low Medium High Temp.
0.55 0.45
(h)
2099
Fish predation mortality [g WW/m2], OG
2009
2009
0.60
0.40
Low Medium High Temp. 2039 years
Low Medium High Temp.
0.50
2099
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
2009
(f)
(j)
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5J
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4
Fish predation mortality [g WW/m2]
(g)
Detritivore biomass [g WW/m2]
180 160 140 120 100 80 60
Detritivore predation mortality [g WW/m2]
5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0
Detritivore biomass [g WW/m2]
(e)
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1
detritivore growth [-]
(d)
2009
2039 years
2069
2099
Averaged annual signal for Fish yield [g WW/m2] Current Temp+High
F
M
A
M
J
J time
A
S
O
N
D
J
Detritivore predation mortality [g WW/m2], OG Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
2099
Figure S5: 30-year averaged values, climatic plus higher trophic level ocean acidification effects (CC + HTL OA): (d) fish or pelagic predator biomass, (e) detritivore biomass, (f) detritivore growth rates, (g) fish yield, (h) annual fish yield signal for the current time (1979-2008 climate scenario) and the high impact scenario (2069-2098 climatic plus HTL acidification effects) signal, (i) predated biomass for pelagic predators and (j) predated biomass for detritivores. Note that subfigures a, b and c (related to the lower trophic level model) do not change in this scenario except for climatic effects: figure notation has been kept the same as those used in other figures for easy comparison.
Southern Bight (Sean Gas Field)
(i)
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 40 35 30 25 20 15 10
Fish predation mortality [g WW/m2]
(g)
Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
2099
Fish yield [g WW/m2] Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
Low Medium High Temp. 2039 years
2069
(h)
2099
Fish predation mortality [g WW/m2], SB
2009
(f)
2099
(j)
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8J 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45
2039 years
2069
2099
detritivore growth [-]
0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45
detritivore growth [-]
Detritivore biomass [g WW/m2]
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2
Detritivore biomass [g WW/m2]
(e)
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5
Detritivore predation mortality [g WW/m2]
(d)
Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
2099
Averaged annual signal for Fish yield [g WW/m2] Current Temp+High
F
M
A
M
J
J time
A
S
O
N
D
J
Detritivore predation mortality [g WW/m2], SB Low Medium High Temp. 2009
2039 years
2069
2099
Figure S6: 30-year averaged values, climatic plus higher trophic level ocean acidification effects (CC + HTL OA): (d) fish or pelagic predator biomass, (e) detritivore biomass, (f) detritivore growth rates, (g) fish yield, (h) annual fish yield signal for the current time (1979-2008 climate scenario) and the high impact scenario (2069-2098 climatic plus HTL acidification effects) signal, (i) predated biomass for pelagic predators and (j) predated biomass for detritivores. Note that subfigures a, b and c (related to the lower trophic level model) do not change in this scenario except for climatic effects: figure notation has been kept the same as those used in other figures for easy comparison.
